22 thoughts on “GOLD – BEAR MARKET TREND LINE

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    Clear selling climax in Deutsche Bank this week.
    Next week will be very cheerful and green on traders’ screens.
    Price action looks like I can keep all my stock holdings – 100% to the brim

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        Clearly,

        You never know where it will stop. I actually even wanted to add to my position when Cognizant Tech was at 45 this morning, because I thought that it is just some news meant to manipulate the price.

        Stupid me!!!

        It has fallen throughout the day. I decided to sell and it is still falling.

        Monday will be holiday in Germany. So You’ll have to wait until Tuesday to see if You are right or wrong. πŸ™‚

        I wish You all the best, anyway, Alex. πŸ™‚

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Thank you, Victor!
    Nope, I had not read the article.

    It is just what that man says.
    On the other hand, it is not in anybody’s interest to throw DB in bankruptcy, so that I think that DB and DOJ are now feverishly discussing a solution and that over the weekend some leaks will emerge.
    Additionally, technically DB looks extremely oversold on selling climax and should or should not make new lows in the future, short-term it is set for a bounce which will ripple with joy through world’s markets next week.

    Furthermore, mass media is saturated with gloomy data, which bodes positively short-term at least.
    Above all, price action is positive now – markets are rising from recent lows.
    What will be middle- and long-term…we will see, but short-term I rest assured πŸ˜‰

  3. galaxy11

    Gary

    The pm miners have exploded higher since jan 2016, with gold mkt following along, sometimes sluggishly.
    If I understand you correctly, we are now at a point that unless gold busts through the bear mkt trendline convincingly, the pm’s will most likely gyrate within a trading range. You have also stated in previous video that we are done with the explosive “baby bull mkt” phase for the pm’s…and that the next time we will see that kind of rocket ride is in the blow-off top phase (parabola) at the tail end of this bull mkt. Am I correct so far ?

    Questions:

    1) Do you still expect the miners to produce mulitple gains as compared with the bullion mkt for the duration of this bull, and also to lead the way higher as well ?

    2) Has this been historically the way in which previous pm BULL markets have behaved ? Is there any case of a divergence ?

    3) If the miners begin to lag behind the metal for some period of time, does this bring some cause for concern as to the likely duration of this bull run ? What would be that length of time which would cause you that concern ?

    4) What other related trends would cause you concern as to the duration and magnitude of the bull run you are currently forecasting (“the biggest bull in history of our lifetimes”) ???

    thankyou

    1. Gary Post author

      1. yes. The miners got beat up the most, they will have the biggest bull run.
      3. The miners are lagging now, but it is because they got stretched much further above the 200 day moving average than gold.
      4. I will ignore the short term gyrations. This is what causes most retail traders to miss most or all of the gains in bull markets. They simply lack the long term vision to stay the course.

  4. AmantedeTeclas

    Well, guys.

    I will share sth with You, today. I will never again put any money in any way in an individual company.

    I had a small leveraged position, just a couple hundred bugs, in Cognizant Technologies. Today it fell like a rock for some foreign investment probe news.

    Investing in individual companies is way too risky I learned today.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Cheers

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      And a look on the bright. I sold my leveraged Silver position on the high of today, and just bought it back a couple of percent lower. πŸ™‚

      Honestly, investing in individual companies gives me headaches.

  5. ras

    GLD really struggling. Poor creature! It could be trying to get into the right technical position for a spike?

    1. rayalex123

      Quarterly options expiration today is the likely reason, they wanted as many calls to expire worthless by the close of the gold COMEX market.

  6. AmantedeTeclas

    No recommendation, just saying…

    The VIX got exactly to the range today where I hoped it would go again after selling yesterday.

    I think this is a good spot to initiate the first position in trading the VIX-Futures again. Spot-VIX at below 13, VIX-Octobre at below 15,5 and VIX-Novembre at below 16,50 last time I looked. It is historically low, and lower than in 2012 around this time, which was the last election year. I can’t imagine it will go much lower with all the political and economic uncertainty.

    I still don’t understand why Alex wouldn’t trade it. But if this is a trap for newbies like me, I will soon find out. Well, I hope not… πŸ™‚

    Can anyone share experience with trading the VIX? Why You should or should not? Well, apart from the historic low vola this summer. The pain is still in my bones, but slowly creeping out.

    Thanks.

    1. bill

      The VIX of days past pre 2008 was tradable, 2016 VIX is being well managed by the central banks . Here is a small suggestion first sign of profits dump it with both hands and stay out it will age you.

      Bill

      Sorry about my spelling errors below dam cell phone

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        You are right bill. Thanks.

        Yes, I think that especially right now in this consolidation, which I think may behave like at the end of 2012, the VIX will bounce up and down because any selling pressure is negated within hours.

  7. bill

    Amazing to see the out right manipulation of the mining and metals sector today on some idiotic tuner that Deutsch bank was reviving less of a fine? Are these banker hack for real? None the less I considered it a gift considering all the shot currently swirling the bowel and added to my positions…

    1. Gary Post author

      Remember bottoms are more often than not undercut lows. And those are manufactured patterns to allow one or two big banks and entry at the exact bottom.

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        Thanks so much, Gary. I so often got caught and sold in panic afterwards, because I tried to buy stuff exactly on the double bottom or slightly above it and made only minuscule money.

        I thought before, that an undercut low is just the continuation of the trend.

        Now I only take supersmall losses in 95 % of the cases and have a real chance.

        By the way…Noticed that You get up early, a habit I completely share. πŸ™‚

        Have a good one.

  8. coolio

    Folks, go chart the “monthly” downtrend line of HUI since 2011’s peak. The monthly breakout in July just got invalidated with September’s closing below the downtrend line. A fake-out? or a re-test?

    Then, go chart the gold’s monthly chart, the downtrend line since the 2011’s peak is solidly intact still.

    Good news is that, Silver has firmly breakout from its monthly downtrend line for 4 months now…so if anything, look to silver for a continuous leadership guidance?

    I believe the macro direction will only hinge on two things (i) U.S long-term yield & (ii) USD it self…others don’t really matter!

  9. Dreamer

    No doubt this week was manufactured to stop everyone out of the PM markets and create negative sentiment. DB, Commerzbank, ING, Monte Pashi and the rest of the Euro banks are ready for the final stage collapse.
    Is this all planned by Gov’t officials to usher in a NWO system or a different system?
    You have to collapse the current system to bring in the new improved better financial system LOL.
    The Gov’t, bankers have to have meetings this 3 day weekend since Germany has a holiday Monday.
    There would seem to have to be a depositor run on these insolvent illiquid banks.
    If you were in Europe, wouldn’t you take your money out of these pathetic banks?

Comments are closed.