Inadvertent error… in the early part of the above video (.48 seconds in) you mention that “… Gold market is now making lower lows and lower highs of intermediate degree and that is usually a sign of a bear market.”
I think you meant to say the the DOLLAR is now making lower lows and lower highs …”
BRs,
Mark
GaryPost author
yes.
Alexandru Popovici
Correct, Gary, on stocks and oil.
I disagree on USX and gold/miners –> the dollar needs to chart its YCH before rolling over and the FOMC in 2w is the right catalyst for that.
mike trike
Gary, do you think a Trump victory will be good or bad for stocks and gold? Hillary’s health problems might push Trump over the edge. I can’t see her being elected at this point.
s29
I think Trump will be bullish long term, simply because he is a business man. But short term, he will likely create some Volatility, certainly in January when he could take office. Usually the first months could be volatile because of policy uncertainty, but after a couple of months it should be business as usual for the stock market.
I think the Fed wants to keep the market up until at least the elections, to support Hillary.
GaryPost author
I’m going to let everyone in on a secret. I see many many people chasing their tails trying to time perfect entries.
Folks one of these days you will figure it out. Timing perfect entries is impossible to do on a consistent basis. All you will do is destroy your portfolio trying to do it.
I’ll be willing to bet that maybe 9 out of every 10 posters on here has never made a dime in the market over the duration of their career.
Why? Because they are constantly trying to time the market, and when they fail to make a perfect entry they stop out for a loss.
That tends to make traders gun shy so they take profits quickly. And taking a bunch of small to medium losses and then cutting your winners short is the recipe for losing money in the market.
Folks we are at the very beginning of multi-year bull runs. You don’t have to time perfect entries. All you have to do is buy long and hold on. The end result no matter how poorly you time your entry will be obscene profits.
The only way to short circuit that would be to stop out over and over if you don’t time your entries well.
If you want to get rich in a bull market just buy and hold until you have big profits.
If you want to get poor, just copy the amateurs constantly over trading their accounts.
tulip
that is one of the best advice guidelines… Ive ever read
on an investment blog. ever.
Diller55
I seriously agree with that, super good advice!!
chrisG
Gary is likely wrong with his gold and miners. Silver is heading to 17-18 area this week. It will lead to plunge in miners, gdx etc. Look to buy when this plunge happens this week. $Hui is going to break 210 this week. Buy miners then.
bill
I hope so Ill ad more to the longs…..
GaryPost author
I’m not wrong. This is a new bull market. You can buy at any time and at any price and ultimately you will make an obscene amount of money.
rickde11
Gary, someone that I follow said the hurricane disrupted imports this last week and we imported 1.7m barrels per day less oil. 1.7 x 7= 11.9 m barrels. He said the next 2 reports there will be a surprise build because those ships that got held up in the storm are still out there.
s29
My thesis: the current correction is actually caused by the PPT! Why? Because Yellen doesn’t want to raise interest rates at all in September and November.
A correction before the FOMC-meeting gives her the right arguments to leave interest rates alone for the time being, and so support the market and economy for Hillary, since Yellen is in the pocket of the establisment. But Yellen can’t say that out loud, because the Fed is so called “independent” and wants to look good.
Maybe the PPT crushed Volatility and corrections before, to suck in retail traders and cause this correction exactly on time for the FOMC-meeting.
GaryPost author
I’ll bet a burrito the market bottoms this week (probably by Wednesday) and is already heading higher by the FOMC meeting.
s29
Interesting, we’ll see. But the volatility alone will give Yellen a good reason not to hike.
AmantedeTeclas
Hi guys. I have been trading volatility over the past weeks. It was painful but I have been able to hold on and was able to sell half my position at a marginal profit. I have been studying the VIX-Futures and an option by the German Commerzbank with the WKN CZ34KN. I noticed that both behaved almost exactly the same way during the last election year in 2012. Everybody probably thouht that the VIX would shoot up straight going into Septembre together with the option. But instead in 2012 as in 2016 the option would drop sharply after labor day and shot up just one trading day later than this yeat this year. There are thre noteworthy differences. 1.) The VIX this year went over 20 % lower than it was back then. 2.) Due to this the drop-off at the beginning of this Septembre wasn’t that hard. 3.) Because the VIX has been so low and the markets so overheated this year, the spike has been tremendous. The VIX-option than dropped again in 2012 and just muddled along for the rest of the year with some chances for a 10 % gain. You have to see it with Your own eyes!!! Don’t just listen to my words!!! So, no manipulation in my opinion. However, the big indices dropped more than just to the 50 % retracement. The NASDAQ actually dropped even more than to the 61.8 % retracement “if” I read the chart of 2012 correctly. So I would cautiously build a long position in some stocks this week. Usually Gary is right (certainly much more often than wrong), and although I am more bearish, I have to say that I have been starting to believe the market will rather go up than down. The bears have just been wrong wrong wrong all along. Europe’s indices are rising above the 200-day MA and are coming out of their consolidations. No matter what I think fundamentally, the stock market is just not going down. As Gary told many months ago, we will probably see a tremendous rise, accompanied by superlow volatility, punctuated by volatility spikes. I learned my lesson this year. Good luck. I am a beginner, that are just my thoughts.
Alexandru Popovici
Treasuries are posed for a short-lived bounce which will not fill the Friday gap down; I’ll drop my shorts into that strength.
mediatik
Could you be more specific on oil ?? Should it bottom at th same time as the overall market ??
Alexandru Popovici
assets are acting as anticipated:
– miners/gold down
– stocks & oil up
– treasuries slightly up (before resuming their rollover).
PS: during stocks’ decline i got stopped out of several stocks but that’s not a problem
Alexandru Popovici
Victor, I just increased my share in SLP. I have 14% in it and I have another 11% to go to a full long-term position.
victor
Couldn’t resist and bought it on Friday Alex, 8.88 …, thank you and God bless…
Alexandru Popovici
great, Victor, we are at virtually the same level with SLP: my price is 8.92.
I would have bought up to 18% stake in it but I am in the T+3 restriction span for the stocks i got stopped out on friday so that i can reuse that cash on Wed.
good night, Victor, i’m tuckin in
bill
Off in the distance millions of bears all scream out at once…
Don
Gary, in terms of cycles, what has happened over the past two trading days (big drop, big recovery). Was it the PPT in action?
GaryPost author
Of course it was. But it has almost certainly halted the DCL a bit prematurely.
jhmoffett
Gary, to Don’s comment above re PPT, do you still see more downside in stocks this week, or do we likely have a DCL?
GaryPost author
I doubt they are going to allow the market to get any downside momentum.
This website uses cookies so that we can provide you with the best user experience possible. Cookie information is stored in your browser and performs functions such as recognising you when you return to our website and helping our team to understand which sections of the website you find most interesting and useful.
Strictly Necessary Cookies
Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Gary,
Inadvertent error… in the early part of the above video (.48 seconds in) you mention that “… Gold market is now making lower lows and lower highs of intermediate degree and that is usually a sign of a bear market.”
I think you meant to say the the DOLLAR is now making lower lows and lower highs …”
BRs,
Mark
yes.
Correct, Gary, on stocks and oil.
I disagree on USX and gold/miners –> the dollar needs to chart its YCH before rolling over and the FOMC in 2w is the right catalyst for that.
Gary, do you think a Trump victory will be good or bad for stocks and gold? Hillary’s health problems might push Trump over the edge. I can’t see her being elected at this point.
I think Trump will be bullish long term, simply because he is a business man. But short term, he will likely create some Volatility, certainly in January when he could take office. Usually the first months could be volatile because of policy uncertainty, but after a couple of months it should be business as usual for the stock market.
I think the Fed wants to keep the market up until at least the elections, to support Hillary.
I’m going to let everyone in on a secret. I see many many people chasing their tails trying to time perfect entries.
Folks one of these days you will figure it out. Timing perfect entries is impossible to do on a consistent basis. All you will do is destroy your portfolio trying to do it.
I’ll be willing to bet that maybe 9 out of every 10 posters on here has never made a dime in the market over the duration of their career.
Why? Because they are constantly trying to time the market, and when they fail to make a perfect entry they stop out for a loss.
That tends to make traders gun shy so they take profits quickly. And taking a bunch of small to medium losses and then cutting your winners short is the recipe for losing money in the market.
Folks we are at the very beginning of multi-year bull runs. You don’t have to time perfect entries. All you have to do is buy long and hold on. The end result no matter how poorly you time your entry will be obscene profits.
The only way to short circuit that would be to stop out over and over if you don’t time your entries well.
If you want to get rich in a bull market just buy and hold until you have big profits.
If you want to get poor, just copy the amateurs constantly over trading their accounts.
that is one of the best advice guidelines… Ive ever read
on an investment blog. ever.
I seriously agree with that, super good advice!!
Gary is likely wrong with his gold and miners. Silver is heading to 17-18 area this week. It will lead to plunge in miners, gdx etc. Look to buy when this plunge happens this week. $Hui is going to break 210 this week. Buy miners then.
I hope so Ill ad more to the longs…..
I’m not wrong. This is a new bull market. You can buy at any time and at any price and ultimately you will make an obscene amount of money.
Gary, someone that I follow said the hurricane disrupted imports this last week and we imported 1.7m barrels per day less oil. 1.7 x 7= 11.9 m barrels. He said the next 2 reports there will be a surprise build because those ships that got held up in the storm are still out there.
My thesis: the current correction is actually caused by the PPT! Why? Because Yellen doesn’t want to raise interest rates at all in September and November.
A correction before the FOMC-meeting gives her the right arguments to leave interest rates alone for the time being, and so support the market and economy for Hillary, since Yellen is in the pocket of the establisment. But Yellen can’t say that out loud, because the Fed is so called “independent” and wants to look good.
Maybe the PPT crushed Volatility and corrections before, to suck in retail traders and cause this correction exactly on time for the FOMC-meeting.
I’ll bet a burrito the market bottoms this week (probably by Wednesday) and is already heading higher by the FOMC meeting.
Interesting, we’ll see. But the volatility alone will give Yellen a good reason not to hike.
Hi guys. I have been trading volatility over the past weeks. It was painful but I have been able to hold on and was able to sell half my position at a marginal profit. I have been studying the VIX-Futures and an option by the German Commerzbank with the WKN CZ34KN. I noticed that both behaved almost exactly the same way during the last election year in 2012. Everybody probably thouht that the VIX would shoot up straight going into Septembre together with the option. But instead in 2012 as in 2016 the option would drop sharply after labor day and shot up just one trading day later than this yeat this year. There are thre noteworthy differences. 1.) The VIX this year went over 20 % lower than it was back then. 2.) Due to this the drop-off at the beginning of this Septembre wasn’t that hard. 3.) Because the VIX has been so low and the markets so overheated this year, the spike has been tremendous. The VIX-option than dropped again in 2012 and just muddled along for the rest of the year with some chances for a 10 % gain. You have to see it with Your own eyes!!! Don’t just listen to my words!!! So, no manipulation in my opinion. However, the big indices dropped more than just to the 50 % retracement. The NASDAQ actually dropped even more than to the 61.8 % retracement “if” I read the chart of 2012 correctly. So I would cautiously build a long position in some stocks this week. Usually Gary is right (certainly much more often than wrong), and although I am more bearish, I have to say that I have been starting to believe the market will rather go up than down. The bears have just been wrong wrong wrong all along. Europe’s indices are rising above the 200-day MA and are coming out of their consolidations. No matter what I think fundamentally, the stock market is just not going down. As Gary told many months ago, we will probably see a tremendous rise, accompanied by superlow volatility, punctuated by volatility spikes. I learned my lesson this year. Good luck. I am a beginner, that are just my thoughts.
Treasuries are posed for a short-lived bounce which will not fill the Friday gap down; I’ll drop my shorts into that strength.
Could you be more specific on oil ?? Should it bottom at th same time as the overall market ??
assets are acting as anticipated:
– miners/gold down
– stocks & oil up
– treasuries slightly up (before resuming their rollover).
PS: during stocks’ decline i got stopped out of several stocks but that’s not a problem
Victor, I just increased my share in SLP. I have 14% in it and I have another 11% to go to a full long-term position.
Couldn’t resist and bought it on Friday Alex, 8.88 …, thank you and God bless…
great, Victor, we are at virtually the same level with SLP: my price is 8.92.
I would have bought up to 18% stake in it but I am in the T+3 restriction span for the stocks i got stopped out on friday so that i can reuse that cash on Wed.
good night, Victor, i’m tuckin in
Off in the distance millions of bears all scream out at once…
Gary, in terms of cycles, what has happened over the past two trading days (big drop, big recovery). Was it the PPT in action?
Of course it was. But it has almost certainly halted the DCL a bit prematurely.
Gary, to Don’s comment above re PPT, do you still see more downside in stocks this week, or do we likely have a DCL?
I doubt they are going to allow the market to get any downside momentum.