26 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP – 9/12

  1. AmantedeTeclas

    Hi, Gary.

    Thanks for this market wrap.

    Is it more likely that in case of a rate hike in 8 days the fundamentals will overwhelm the cycles? Or will win the technicals? I mean people really interpret a lot into the rolling over of the dollar after the rate hike, that it was just because the FED got dovish again and so on and so forth, but it seems more the technicals drove it. And with robots and mathematicians instead of economists doing all the trades it would seem more logical that technicals will more or less “always” win.

    Which other fundamentals do You think will drive the dollar down? Or are so many fundamentals just “noise” that disrupts the analysis?

    Have a good one.

    1. Gary Post author

      The odds of a hike are now at 15%. The Fed has never hiked with the odds less than 75%.

      There is virtually no chance of a rate hike.

  2. AmantedeTeclas

    Hi Gary,

    I got another question.

    Are You in any way biased? With regards to the analyzis, I mean.


    Hae a good one.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    I do not like stocks market price action; I’ve dumped all stocks at a small equity loss while preserving only the stake in SLP

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    ….and it looks that minding to price action instead of to personal opinion has saved me again πŸ™‚

  5. gent25

    someone said the market would be going up on the way to FOMC meeting.. well that doesn’t look like it to me now

  6. chrisG

    Guys, wake up. Market is going be a little erratic until fomc. But the lows of Friday should hold. Market cannot rally too much now as FED will have no excuse to delay. So, now erratic until FOMC. Post FOMC then rally resumes.

  7. AmantedeTeclas

    Well, the markets have not yet broken the lows of Monday. My VIX-Option also hasn’t gone yet above Mondays highs where I sold.

    My very modest long positions are also just barely underwater.

    Markets almost never go down in election years. After such a rally there has to be some profit taking. EuropeΒ΄s indices are going down but there is not yet real fear. The VSTOXX-50 has barely budged.

    I am just curious if one should get into a long Oil option. I am worried about the DOLLAR because it has broken a decending resistance line that has formed over the last 10 days.

    Any thoughts on that?

    Best Regards.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    Gent25, yes, I was wrong, I took the cumulated -2.4% equity loss since last week and I am waiting for a swing low in broad indexes.
    Statistically, once NYSE breaks the lower Keltner band and fails to produce a daily swing low right after a bullish marubozu candle, then more downsize lies ahead short-term

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …it is this statistical evidence that made me dump all remaining stocks [except one] at the open today

  9. crawfordnews

    This is something else. I don’t know what just yet. Could they be panicking over China’s inclusion into the SDR’s? Could they be panicked over the idea that Hillary is not going to be able to complete her run? Could they be trying to scare the market ahead of a Trump win? There’s a ton of things that you can speculate on

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    and here they are: the FINANCIALS, the strongest market segment, are the first to produce a fresh new low !

  11. AmantedeTeclas

    The dollar is producing a smaller degree, but it seems solid, uptrend. It broke above the descending trendline resistance and comes out of a bowl-shaped consolidation. Is this significant? I’ve no idea. πŸ™‚

  12. gent25

    You guys are missing the bigger picture.. it was Gary who said the market would be going up on the way to the FOMC meeting… I bet a burrito he said…. I just had a burrito.

  13. Don

    The dollar is being stubborn and not doing what everyone has been expecting. I think Gary may be wrong about where the dollar is headed, at least for next few weeks.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Yeah, but how many people are expecting the dollar to go down, and Europe go up?

      I actually got the impression that it was the other way round.

      I guess, if too many expect it to go down, it will rather buck the trend.

  14. crawfordnews

    And they defend 2120 heavily. Can they hold it? They will try. If not 2064 is a real possibility as next major S.
    And I kick myself for selling the VIX toooo early last Friday at a loss πŸ™

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      If I would have held on to all my VIXF-options until today, I would have made one grand…well, and I didn’t. πŸ™‚

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Teclas, i have no idea where dollar’s YCH will be.
    there will have to be some buying climax…we will see

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Ok, but why do You think that the dollar has to go to this high first, before it goes down? Is this like a textbook example?

  16. Don

    The volume is not excessive so the PPT should have no trouble pulling the market up in the last 15 minutes, if that is the plan, which I don’t think it is for today.

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