1. Robert

    This doesn’t make much sense. If gold hasn’t even begun its Intermediate decline how can minimize stocks have a bottom before that? It only means that when gold starts it’s big selloff mining stocks will go down much further. Maybe GDX 20 or even lower

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold has generated a failed daily cycle. Technically that qualifies as a possible ICL.

      It could have to stretch the cycle just a bit with an undercut low though. I’m not dismissing that possibility.

      If it does then we would have our intermediate trend line.

      1. ras

        Gold could make an undercut low in the 1275 area. hui has good support in the 200 area and gdx in the 22 area. gdx was at 26.41. It may take several days. A bit of panic could develop when gdx slices through 26. Time will tell.

  2. CooLoser

    Hi Gary,
    This is somewhat confusing. The dollar hasn’t had an intermediate cycle low yet and I was under the impression that Gold will not top until the dollar bottoms. Having said all that, it’s possible that gold miners could have an intermediate cycle low even if Gold doesn’t?
    Thanks, Cool

    1. Gary Post author

      The miners have been doing their own thing for a while. They didn’t produce anything even vaguely resembling an ICL back in June when gold did.

  3. [email protected]

    Good Morning Gary,

    A quick question what is thoughts on China being included in the SDR end of this month Jim Rickards thinks its the beginning of the death of dollar your thoughts?

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    getting close?!!
    miners and gold are not to bottom to their ICLs (gold at 1297) until two weeks at least.

    PS: treasuries have not met my forecast of a final advance of TLT to 144 before their final drop; instead they barely moved TLT to 141.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    betting short treasuries is now the safest trade on the Street ! By far and laaarge!

    on monday I’ll buy TMV – treasuries are to fall for at least 1.5w until DCL

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    ….actually it is so safe betting short treasuries that I am gonna write some TLT o-t-m calls too

  7. duckwhorocks1

    One of the reasons for the tremendous leverage of HUI to Gold was the massive outperformance of Gold to Oil. Gold to Oil ratio hit and all time high in 2016 and looks like it has topped.
    Think of Gold price has revenues and Oil price as costs for Gold miners.
    Mean reversion of this to the historical 15 is going to be brutal for the mining sector.
    Their”all-in” sub $1,000-$1,200 costs are going to suddenly become $1,500 and none of them will be profitable any more.

  8. mike trike

    Good to see all the comments here are bearish. I missed out buying LABU at the bottom and also bailed on my UCO positon right at the bottom at beginning of August because I listened to all the bearish posters here and on other sites. Never again!

    1. rayalex123

      Yes, the trick is to listen to Gary and not the other bozos on here who think they know what they’re talking about.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Gary is good but you should check his record over 2011-2015 from his old site before you label him as the next messiah.

  9. Gary Post author

    Good plan.

    All that has happened is the dollar has bounced for three days. During that time gold has corrected for three days. It’s not even close to signalling a failed daily cycle yet.

    If the dollar heads back down early next week to complete it’s DCL then gold should resume it’s rally in the new daily cycle.

    The miners got hit a little harder but that was mostly caused by margin selling from the stock market drop. If gold reverses and goes higher the miners will ultimately follow.

  10. ras

    Fine. Everyone knows that pms are in an uptrend in the monthly time frame. The problem is about the daily time frame. On the daily, gdx and all senior minors fell below 50 day ma. During the 3 day sharp bounce, they were repulsed by the 50 day ma and continue to head to the south. Also, price is below declining 20 da ma. Likely, gdx and pm miners would be pressured by the falling ny market albeit briefly. When gdx falls through the previous daily support and makes a lower low at 22 close to 200 ma, we are likely to see a positive divergence in macd. Dust has begin a brief up cycle and this is likely to persist for several days. Folks who were not expecting ny market decline until mid January could have been blindsided and their cycle counts disturbed.

    One more point. It is possible for pm miners to decline as indicated above , with gold/silver declining only marginally because markets are tricky.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    long stocks and a bear of treasuries – these are the places to be.

    on the other hand, stocks’ ascent will not last too long.

    SLP is acting superbly: found its resistence at its 10dma sharp –> I’ll hold my current 10% share in it long-term; planning to add further on up to a 25% stake by next March.

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