1. adavis352

    Hey Gary – any insights on the housing market? I’m considering buying my first home, but remain skeptical of buying at a top. Thanks.

  2. duckwhorocks1

    Nice Video. Agree.
    You are still gonna get tons of Burrito losses on the Miners as mean reversion in the Oil Gold ratio destroys their profit margins.

    1. Gary Post author

      The mining sector has cleaned up their act. That’s what a massive bear market will do. 50-70 oil isn’t going to hurt them at all. As a matter of fact as gold rises their profit margins will soar.

      We have all the conditions in place now for the next leg up in this 20 year bull market.

      Remember commodity bulls unfold in two phases. what leads the first phase never leads the second. The first phase was led by base metals and energy. It was driven by emerging markets and China as they expanded. This phase should be led by precious metals and maybe agriculture. It will be driven by monetary expansion as central banks print more and more currency.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Yeah If oil stopped at $60 and Gold kept rising I would say you are probably right but a mean reversion to 15:1 requires $80 oil and $1,200 Gold and considering what is priced in, I would say you would be lucky to get only $20 on GDX.
        You had called a DCL on Gold….you gonna watch it get smashed in the coming week.

  3. chrisG

    Yes Gary. With king Apple breaking out, NDX gonna rocket. Apple is the main reason holding NDX back. Now no more. And good point on crude. High crude often hurt mining margins. But at 50 to 70 crude, miners profitability can start to skyrocket.

    The last mining bull had people wonder why even with gold doubling at $1800, miners still can make good profit, it’s the cost of crude!!!!

  4. chrisG

    Clive Maund had a one day laughter on Friday with the huge market drop. But only one day. He still haven’t given up calling for crash in stock market despite his many failures. Need more people like this and subscribers to force the short squeeze on them to help propel market higher.

  5. AmantedeTeclas

    Hi Gary,

    I am shorting the US-Dollar against the Swiss Franc. What do You think? You have never mentioned that one as far as I can remember.

    Is there a reason why You rather focus on the YEN and the EURO?

    I got the impression that the USD / JPY is somehow stuck on this level. I guess You would say I am wrong.

    Thanks a lot.


  6. AmantedeTeclas

    It is absolutely interesting how the dollar index bounces up and down.

    I guess this performance is meant to run the stop-loss-levels of bulls and bears all the time and eat away at leveraged options.

    1. Gary Post author

      The BOJ and ECB are intervening in the currecy markets trying to keep their currencies suppressed.

  7. Gary Post author

    The most likely trigger for the dollar to start down into the ICL will come on Wednesday when the Fed again fails to raise rates. I expect the BOJ and the ECB will intervene that day but the trend should be down into Dec. at that point as the next possible rate hike won’t be till then.

    1. davidlin1116

      Won’t it just make a quick dip and then rally into the fed meeting in December? Market prices in what “will” happen and not what had happened.

    2. AmantedeTeclas

      With this breakout in the Dollar I am now really asking myself what parties are ripping off the people on the other side of the trade.

  8. AmantedeTeclas

    Thanks. Understood. Well, I will just take that bet with a peanut position. Technically, as I understood on 2 other blogs it is rather certain that the Dollar should go down over time. But You never know. There is still always some element of gambling in there. Just makes the most sense to me. I don’t expext anything.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      It will be interesting to see if this is just the magnetic attraction of the MA-resistance. So often things just run up there and a bit above to fool everyone. Good that I only play with small change.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    as forecast 2w ago, expect ICLs in miners/gold on at the beginning of next week.

    I maintain my forecast for ICL in gold at 1297

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    SDRL ignores oil’s and energy stocks’ ordeal and not only rises…it rises on above-average volume.
    Smart money is clearly thinking the artic oil explorer hit a low yesterday and HAVE RESUMED BUYING IT !

    YELP, BCOV and SPAR are also reacting excellently to today’s rout.
    Got stopped only out of ERF

  11. Don

    The dollar has been quietly moving up since it;s bottom back in mid August. Gary, I hope you are not thinking of writing one of those ‘things aren’t going the way I planned’ blogs.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar has to have an ICL at some point. Central banks can intervene in markets and strtech cycles out to unnatural lengths but they can’t stop the cycle forever.

      They stretched the stock cycle to over 50 days, but it still finally gave us a DCL.

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        True, and I had to hold on to my VIXF-options for more than 30 days to finally see them pay off. Also this conditions You. I thought after the VIXF going up 15 % in one day that I should better sell half, because the action before conditioned me into believing it would rather go down again. But no, on Monday pre-market it was even 9 % higher, than crashed a day later, than shot up another 13 % from the day’s low. It was crazy. 🙂 So hold on or leave it. 🙂

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, we are not in a strecthed cycle of USX but in a new one.
    I was writing at the beginning of the prior week about my expectation of:
    1) a short DC with DCL in USX to occur early next week (and it occured 2 sessions earlier – on Sep8)
    2) a new DC of USX to produce an YCH or in any event a break of the upper weekly trend line
    3) ICLs in miners/gold in 2w from then.

    point 1 occured; point 2 is in its making.
    So, WE ARE IN A NEW DC NOT IN A STRETCH ONE for the dollar.

  13. rayalex123

    Look at the enormous volume on some of the more popular junior miners such as CDE and BTG. Looks like institutional or even central bank buying, and the last time this type of volume spike occurred was in mid-June, just before a multi-week rise took place.

  14. AmantedeTeclas

    Just a technical question.

    Is this price action in oil forming a swing low?

    Who does see inverted head & shoulder patterns in the big indices? Or is it just a triple test of today’s low?

    Seems they wanna go up.

  15. chrisG

    Gary there is a potential for USD to rally though. If US follows Indonesia. Allow test amnesty for those huge corporations to repatriate back to US those billions and trillions of money held offshore for tax avoidance purposes.

  16. humbled

    Yen was certainly intervened by CB on many occasioN’s, looking at the way usdjpy moved on numerous days..

  17. humbled

    early next week let us add to metals and miners long positions. the high volume traded could be suggestive of selling climaxes.

  18. Don

    The market breadth is terrible with much higher down volume than up. It should have been a big down day yet the Nasdaq closed up with the S&P down marginally. Things are not adding up. Monday could be very interesting.

Comments are closed.