40 thoughts on “100 WMA

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    Boltfan, yes indeed. There is no holy-grial techniques. The Holy Grail lies in any of us and it means finding:
    – our own psychological balance, then
    – a trading strategy (few have a couple of trading strategies) that produce long-term positive expectancy in playing this probabilistic game: i.e. rules to entry, rules to position sizing, rules for risk management and rules for exit,
    – embracing losses as part of any probabilistic game and KEEPING THEM SMALL or at least small relative to reward so that a due minimum reward-risk ratio can be preserved regardless of market conditions (if market conditions do not allow the strategy to produce that ratio, then stay out of the market as long as it takes, as those conditions linger).

    These 3 things are the only elements of the Holy Grail.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Thursday is getting close.
    Today a respite while tomorrow the high in USX and the low in gold/miners.

    Tomorrow I’ll write an OTM put of GLD due on Jan20.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    most of my stocks up to new 52w high on high volumes yesterday despite market decline: WB, BCOV, YELP, SPAR.
    goody good!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Tomorrow I’ll buy also some AEM – it is the leader of all large miners. The cash from the sale of GDX on Sep26 will go in AEM.

  4. AmantedeTeclas

    Thanks a lot.

    Well, then I guess all the action will be in oil while we are here contemplating about precious metals.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Interesting chart. Thanks. This would be a killer. But on the way down there still must be plenty of those DCL and ICL to trade from.

    2. Gary Post author

      Yes but we need the bubble phase first. This will be when every Tom Dick and Harry is buying gold and price gets stretched 50-100% above the 200 DMA.

      1. vanbc

        Gary, One thing is interesting that Gold price never break down 200 WMA in bull market, Unfortunately , today’s 200WMA was broken. so Kanselier’s cycle scenario warning should be pay attention.

        1. AmantedeTeclas

          Never say never. Now the question is if those longterm charts show daily, weekly or monthly. If I understand correctly You can’t see the activity of a few days on the monthly, or can You?

          Here comes into play maybe sth else Gary mentioned in one of those videos…that since 2008 there are no position limits anymore when buying gold or other metals, so that big players can bounce around the price a bit to get everybody scared. So they can also push it below the WMA a bit.

          Just my 2 cents

  5. duckwhorocks1

    Does anyone remember 2008, Gold:oil traded at an astounding ratio of 6 ($900:$150)? If Gold followed oil at that ratio today, it would have traded as low as $162!!!!
    Even at a 15:1 historic ratio it would have traded as low as $405. Bull market in PMs or not, to me it is silly to chase the significantly more expensive asset (Gold Miners) here when oil should easily outperform big time.
    And so far, since I have said it, I have been right.

    1. Gary Post author

      Why not trade both? When one makes an intermediate bottom it’s time to get aggressive. Gold is getting ready to make one of those soon. Oil had it’s ICL a couple of months ago. It still has plenty of upside yet but it doesn’t have th potential at this point that miners do when they come out of an ICL.

      Remember miners lost 90% of their value during the bear. Nothing has the kind of potential miners have during this bull phase. By comparison the energy stocks only lost a little over 50%.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Miners lost 90% of their value because they went up 16 fold in the 2001-2011 bull market. Energy indices did not do anywhere close to that.
        And the top 10 energy companies reduced their share count on average during that time while the top 10 Gold companies issued stock like drunken sailors.

  6. duckwhorocks1

    In response to your other comment on the previous post, Do you find the leveraged fund charts useful?
    I do trade them but I use the unleveraged etf charts and with the decay on the leveraged, I have a hard time making out what the heck is going on.

    1. ras

      Hi, wrt to pms, it is useful to pay primary attention to: gdx, gdxj, sil,silj and heavy weights: aem, nem,etc. And,of course, gld, slv, pplt, cu, etc. Down the line, it can be helpful to watch major leveraged etfs as well. Siimlarly, for the energy complex and spx. It is pointless to worry about the ny market until techs and semis begin to falter.

      2 reasons for concern in the short term for pms: 1. In the weekly time frame, DUST and JDST are beginning to wake up after long hibernation. $cdnx just gave a weekly sell signal after a long rise.

      I am just miffed why a very talented analyst like Gary was blindsided by the crash in gid. Many were expecting this including yourself. One needs go where price leads us, without getting wedded to a particular outcome. The telltale sign for me was the fleeting nature of itsy, bitsy bounces in nugt which did not show up in the weekly time frame. Clear and unmistakable warning.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Whenever the gold bug community starts talking about how the “Commercials are cornered” and the “Speculator long position in COT does not matter” or after a 200% run commenting on how “this bull is just getting started”…well you know what is coming next

  7. galaxy11

    In video you say “you do not see anything in bubble phase” (like real estate, or tech stocks) that caused breakdown in previous upward stock market trends…

    What about government bonds ?

  8. Dreamer

    Gary, one of the scenarios you provided is that gold could hover around the 1270 lows area until the jobs report Friday 8:30am. Is that playing out today as the gold shorts are covering today and into tomorrow. Does 1270 qualify as the undecut low.

  9. duckwhorocks1

    USD/JPY flirting with the 103.5 level. Expect another $25-$30 leg down in Gold if that level breaks to the upside.

  10. AmantedeTeclas

    Day two of the bloodbath and I just bought the next small tranche in silver. I hope You guys are right about the bull market and are not just blinded by sth that’s shining.

  11. Don

    Gary, are you still bearish on the dollar? It ‘appears’ as if it is going to go up rather than down. Where the dollar is headed has implications for gold and crude. Any thoughts?

  12. Don

    Took a medium sized stake in USLV today. Buying up a number of gold penny stocks also. They hold the best promise for out sized gains if gold and silver are truly in a new bull market.

  13. victor

    maybe it’s too early but I sold my oil with a nice profit, aiming to enter silver miners tomorrow or Friday on spike extensions …, any input on oil? I think Gary is right and oil is in a range for some time… will start re-purchase partly at 43$…

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    Redbaron, it’s making money to me: bought it on Sep15 at some $37.5 and now, less than 3w later, it is $42.2.
    A crap company can make a great investment while a great company can be a fantastic trap, hot light for butterflies’ wings.

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Miners look like have set their ICL.
    I’ll buy NEM, though, tomorrow on a swing low – I am not hurrying.

    PS: after today’s price action, I prefer NEM now more than AEM.

  16. AussieMike

    Hi Gary
    Is your view of the USD still the same? For the last 2 months it has formed an ascending triangle and looks ready to shoot higher? Given that the last 2 days it has closed above the 200dma.
    Gold looked like a nice big Bull flag, but it really was more of a descending triangle, which (manipulated or not) has now dropped down big time.
    I’ve just realised that China is on holidays for the week. Can you imagine come late Monday Asian time when they find out Gold is now at a huge discount?

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