16 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – QQQ

    1. Gary Post author

      I couldn’t say on that one, but I think we can acknowledge that the PPT has at least stopped the ICL for the time being.

  1. zkotpen


    I, too, think gold has a bit to run before completing its YCL.

    The only thing is, not only do I see this run as being corrective (bull trap), but it’s also shaping up in a very triangular fashion. Long gold may be profitable at present, but it also may not be. I can’t see how that would fit your stringent reward/risk considerations.

    Something you may not be aware of is gold’s hovering on the 200 day SMA and sluggish approach to the 20 day SMA. Surely the latter will be tested — GDX tested its 20 day SMA, and gold will likely follow. Meanwhile, volatility at both degrees is shriveling up, in both gold and GDX.

    All of that adds up to corrective patterns in gold and miners — deadly to one’s account, in both directions, until a break — which I believe will be down, into the YCL.

  2. zkotpen


    You correctly identified me as a dreamer a few weeks ago.

    Well, curiously, I’ve been building an unexpected Las Vegas dream, for several years now. It all began with this bizarre notion that if I ever get married again, it’ll be in a Las Vegas chapel, with Elvis presiding, just like in the movies.

    Naturally, I looked at that odd dream with incredulity for quite some time. But lately it has been picking up some substance unexpectedly.

    The most recent development is our burrito bet on the massive blow off top in metals before Jan 1, 2017 — slightly longer than the five years you’ve predicted, but I can taste it already.

    I look forward to my burrito, along with my getting hitched in Vegas, and giving my best shot at the World Series of Poker (where I hope you’ll be on my rail if I somehow manage to defy all expectations and make a deep run! 🙂 )

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    David, yes, I expect the YCL, the lower low in early December, as USX will top.

    Zkot, minor-trend rallies are usually strong.
    If you add this two other ingredients (the need of USX to revert to the mean before moving higher and the fantastic ability of gold to creep higher on its belly despite a wall of greenback bullets in its face) we get a nice 3-aroma cocktail which now it requires a bit of fermentation, a bit of time, before gratifying consumption.
    The rise I expect to see in gold as USX reverts to mean will meet my minimum rew/risk ratio of 2x.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …both treasuri3s and gold are on minor trends and this thinking makes perfect sense from a contrarian point of view: it makes good sense to virtually everybody that USX should continue higher and gold should drop as a rate hike by FED in December is looming clearer and clearer by each day.

      When there is such an assurance the thing does ultimately happen but Lady Market has a bipolar disordered consciousness and it delivers it with a twist and with a big laughter by doing the opposite, for a while.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    Golden crossover in USX !
    Contrarian to theory, in today’s practice such crossovers have more often delivered bearish moves.
    This adds to the imminence of USX reversal to the mean, hence to gold’s springing to around 1335 resistance (the level where I dumped my last gold position on JUN27).

  5. zkotpen


    You MAY be right — but watching gold & miners evolve just looks like more sideways on the way.

    YCL in both will have people freaking out, calling for new lows, only to see a rally into 2017 — I’ll be watching for my little wave C of triangle signals at YCH degree… they may or may not happen — how gold & GDX behave when price gets into that area will govern how the rest of this multi-year bear market rally plays out.

    Lots of profits to be made, if one does not get overly bullish or bearish… profits that will be intermixed with times of difficult to predict sideways chop.

    Getting back to present, you say that gold is doing well vs. the force of USD move up. I think that gold is on the verge of succumbing to its own YC decline force, which will eventually prevail.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Zkot, first of all, it looks like I’m gonna be stopped out of my long treasuries position with an equity loss of -0.3%.

    As to gold, yes, the YCL force I think also will prevail but until then, there is a bread to eat with the long-gold trade.
    Also look at USDJPY – it stands ripe to roll over into a DCL both in terms of level and timeframe.
    I think we should see gold at 1300 soon.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Good morning, David! I personally do not think he will win.

      Trump has done his bit for history: he has revealed a shattered bedrock of Republican old school and along with a steering of the American society from its entrepreneurial immigrant base towards a rooted, complacent population peculiar to regular old nations.
      The people who made America what it still is (from inertia) came there with nothing but with great hopes and energy to move things. Their children and grandchildren inherited, were instilled with that feeling.

      But…as time lapsed it has dimed, people are more concerned with getting employed, getting a safe job, a safe health care system rather than thinking about “moving things”, about hoping big, being entrepreneurial.
      Americans are getting mainstream as all other peoples (getting a nice, cosy job at a shiny window) and Trump has been the light to cast that landmark change.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    USDJPY jumps to a new high on day 20 – overextended and ripe for a daily cycle decline 🙂

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    I haven’t been stopped out of my long-treasuries position.
    Still riding both treasuries’ and gold’s bulls while waiting for a short-stocks re-entry next week, on the Hillary-president driven optimism.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    ..and JPY leading all other currencies in bringing USX lower; ready to close its intra-day b/o at 104.60 🙂

    treasuries are moving great too.

    checking out for today; evening is drawing its curtain here in Bucharest.
    Zkot, David, have a great day!

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