66 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – GDX

  1. Goldlion78

    Nice. I truly hope you’re right, Gary. The wild swings the past few weeks has made nauseous. I didn’t get the exact bottom, but pretty close on a few miners I’ve had my eye on . Already green here and hoping for those new highs in 3-4 months.

  2. Pedestrian

    I am not quite so convinced by that last kiss goodbye Gary. I have another indicator I follow that suggests the kiss of death is coming and in this case its a death cross. The 200 ema is about to plunge below the 200 sma and that is quite a bearish development. I will link a chart to show what I mean. Secondly, if you watch platinum you will see that it is literally perched on the edge of breaking down within its falling trend channel. Again, if platinum fails here then the outlook for all precious metals is going to be in doubt. We should know today what will happen next although lets not be surprised if the chart plays itself out without a clear decision until the close on Friday and thus leaves us in suspense for the weekend as is often the case. Anyway, check this chart. If it does not print correctly then just plug in the 200 sma and 200 ema and ask yourself again what is coming next.

      1. Pedestrian

        Platinum topped precisely at the top of its range and has started to fall so it remains within the bear channel that it started in early August and by accounts will not break higher. My conclusion is that the declines for metals and miners shall continue until further notice. Even GDX should fall below the 200 day once more before this day is done.

        1. theworldwithoutfacebook

          Gold produced this “cross” back in Feb 2010 and we all know how that turned out.

          1. Pedestrian

            Maybe it did. Go ahead and risk it. You might have noticed I was talking about the miners ETF’s and the HUI though and not gold itself. While I would agree both golden and death crosses have an imperfect record at times it is still worthwhile keeping the moving average crossovers in mind especially when they appear across a number of charts rather than appearing in just one. I have a preference for using the EMA versus SMA crossovers as they are more reliable on long charts even if the actual crosses are lagging information. For daily charts though they are invaluable so I pay attention. But we do have to use more than one tool and this single indicator cannot rule your trading or it will waste your time and cause you to miss almost all the short term action. What this one tells me though is that metals will probably not be good performers for the balance of this year. And that is worth knowing.

        2. Pedestrian

          And by the way, if anyone takes a look and get back to basics you will see that the 50 day is plunging towards the 200 on both GDX and GDXJ which as mentioned above for HUI is a death cross coming into play. Gold people don’t want to talk about this for some reason and they are doing a disservice to all gold buyers by keeping hopes alive when the charts are really bearish and predictable using simple old fashion technical tools. We don’t have to like it but that’s just the way it is. So lets keep it honest.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ve gone over this one before when you guys were trying to claim the death cross in the SPX meant a bear market was coming. Historically these crosses generate false signals much more often than not. It’s just that no one ever bothers to back test the data, they just assume.

            The exponential moving averages have generated a lot fewer false signals. I would watch that one instead.

          2. Pedestrian

            Indeed Gary. I use the EMA regularly.

            By the way. Who are “you guys”. I have not been writing on your site more than a week or so. Maybe you have me confused with another?

          3. Pedestrian

            Anyway Gary, forget death crosses and go look at platinum on a monthly chart . I will bet you a Burrito it sees 800 before the final bottom and that tells us the gold declines are not finished. Better yet, forget platinum too.

            What can you say about LABU today? Closing in on a bottom perhaps?

          4. Gary Post author

            Platinum is very close to breaking the intermediate down trend line. When it does we will have confirmation that the intermediate degree decline is over.

            The same for the HUI.

            You guys was a general term referring to the many people that tried to claim I was wrong and stocks were starting a bear market and the death cross was proof.

  3. Gary Post author

    In regards to biotech here is the chart I posted last night. I suggested the 50 or 62% retracement would be the spot to start buying again. We sold at almost the exact top.

    No one is propping up the biotech sector so it is experiencing a real intermediate decline. This will clear sentiment and set the stage for the next leg up.

    If the establishment would allow this to occur in the general market we could set the stage for the next leg up there. But they keep propping it up. They never let it correct fully.

  4. Surf City

    Regardless of USD weakness, Gold was rejected near the top of its Bear Flag from yesterdays move.

    So far it appears to be heading down to test the lower boundary of my flag.

      1. Surf City

        Much still depends on which way price breaks out of the Bear Flag but the Price movement inside the Flag is not bullish especially with respect to the Time of this Daily Cycle.

        I have Gold on day 13 now and it is running out of Time, IMO and needs to get a move on or we will likely see another failed Daily Cycle into a final YCL.

        1. ltr

          I agree with you on the timing. I think Avi is correct with his fibs. Of course Avi does not really know where things are heading but he is not sticking one way or another, he just calls it as he sees it. Gary is just too arrogant with his own pick. I do have friends subscribe to Gary’s service and they are currently down >60% in gold. They bought it at the same time as Gary did which was 23$.

          Also, instead of looking at cycles and technical, Gary loves to talk about government intervention and manipulations.

          1. Gary Post author

            No one can be down 60%. I was crystal clear. No more than 20-50% of one portfolio in the metals. They are volatile.

  5. chrisG

    Guys, its very clear now. The next big move in gold wins. Up, stay long. Down big, get out of the way. No need to consult Gary, no need need to pray to the investment god. Just note the next big daily move.

    1. Robert

      Gold and miners are done. Looks like this daily cycle will be another down one so we bottom in November and Avi was right again. GDX will go back to 22s possibly lower this time all the way to 20. My Jan call options will be worthless at this rate

      1. Pedestrian

        Avi was right again? LOL!!! That’s hysterical. Avi is always right because he makes predictions in both directions at the same time. Best laugh of the day. Like Gary says, lets see how he does making unconditional and unhedged real time trading calls.

        That’s how you separate the talkers from the traders.

  6. Gary Post author

    Folks all that is happening today is gold got capped for futures expiration. Wait for the rest of the week before making any decisions.

    If the dollar is topping then it should take 2-3 weeks to work down into its DCL. During that time gold should rally as the dollar falls.

    Today is just manipulation for the expiration. Thursday and Friday should produce the real picture.

    1. Robert

      Gary this gold daily cycle is getting late so not enough time maybe 1 more week to produce a rally and then another DCL in 2 weeks. Surf is right not much room for upside unless it acts now in a few days. Either way looks like the bottom wont come till November

      1. Gary Post author

        Nonsense. All gold needs is for the dollar cycle to top and the euro to complete its YCL. Once that happens the euro will rally for 18-25 trading days and the dollar will fall for a similar amount.

        You can see how that could produce a very long daily cycle rally in gold. The first cycle out of last years YCL lasted almost 4 months.
        All the currency (and market) manipulation is stretching cycles everywhere, including gold.

        1. Surf City

          Gary, With so much manipulation impacting Cycles and other TA, I guess there is not much use for Subs to pay for a subscription for cycle analysis???

        2. Surf City

          BTW, The USD Cycle is the only one that has surprised me since September as I did not expect it to be this bullish. I am still expecting a YCL for Stocks in mid-November and I still think the Jury is still out on Gold’s YCL as the price action in the first 13 days of this Daily Cycle has not been very bullish, IMO.

          Still long with my recently acquired trading shares out of the recent DCL but they are on a short leash…

          1. Pedestrian

            Your mistake is that you don’t know how to chart dollars. You are not alone though. Most of you don’t know and I sure as hell am not tipping you off.

          2. Surf City

            My broader point was that I find talk of “manipulation” on this Blog very self-serving and I don’t but it at all. Too easy to blame one’s faulty analysis on the “manipulation of other.”

            Sure, manipulation exists within markets but it shows up in the charts if you pay attention to them.

          3. Pedestrian

            Got a point there. Manipulation calls seem like a cop out to me too. I enjoy Gary’s cycle counts though because that method reveals things that I don’t otherwise see and most days it is a helpful addition to my own charting. Speaking up on Gary’s behalf here though, the reason I am reading his blog is that he has made some pretty good calls this year and I appreciate his style of making them.

          4. Gary Post author

            Nonsense, manipulation can’t show up in charts by the very fact that the intent is to force the market to do something it’s not meant to do naturally.

          5. Surf City

            Gary, I beg to differ on Gold, big time. The Intermediate Cycle chart was very clear to me. Out of the May 31st IC Low, I show the Gold IC topped just after one month in the first week of July. In the next Daily Cycle, Gold then made a lower high the first week in August, topping on just day 6 (clue #1 top on day 6 is bearish).

            That Daily Cycle was left translated and failed making a Lower DCL in late August (clue #2 failed DC). What would you expect the Price action in Gold to be bullish after a failed daily cycle? I certainly wasn’t. I took those two clues and bailed on any remaining long positions the 1st down day after the 2 day top.

            Again, the charts of Gold’s current Intermediate Cycle have been bearish since early August and certainly since late Aug when we had a failed DC.

            Even if you do not consider May 31 and ICL, why would you be bullish on Gold after a failed daily cycle?

          6. Surf City

            I think I answered my own question. Because you did not view May 31st as an ICL, perhaps you thought the late August Failed DCL was the ICL as it was overdue from a Time perspective?

            As I always considered late May an ICL, I was able to view the Price action out of the May ICL in the bearish manner it was clearly forecasting.

            Gee, I guess its time for you to start a new blog post…

          7. Robert

            Nice Surf. I have looked over the cycles. Since 1243.2 was a failed DCL I think the odds are pretty high we will have another LT and based on this crappy price action then there will be 1 more failed DCL and then I think a proper rally will come from that low which should be the ICL

  7. ras

    Positions in inverse pm etfs seem to be the place for a while. It does not pay to fight the tape. When price turns around, do likewise.

      1. Robert

        Getting sick now. This is not bullish at all, we might plunge in few days USD pullback having no effect miners getting killed as usual. Hating gold so much now, this correction is lasting so long

      2. ras

        Yes, choppy. In and out promptly without being greedy. It works for me. No bias here toward long or short. When choppiness ends, price more likely to make a lower low, in my view. I am not locked into this particular scenario, however. If price indicates the opposite, I will change my stance promptly. My motto is “Lose your bias not your dollars”. Everyone needs to exercise due diligence and proper risk management without blindly following others. Eventually, huge draw downs could become problematic. Comments on this board are simply opinions, not trading advice.
        Since September all bounces have turned out to be reactive, not impulsive. No idea when the situation is going to change. It is important to take the matter as it comes without whining about manipulation, etc.

  8. Robert

    Im calling it now, Gold starting another failed daily cycle. Screw this gold is utter garbage for now till maybe next year

    1. Surf City

      Robert, remember that Cycle ICLs and YCLs are all about resetting investor sentiment for the next leg up.

      The Time into this YCL has been a grind that is shaking the nerves of many.

      1. Pedestrian

        Good point Surfer. There is still a good case for a metals bounce here despite my own reservations.

        And Robert, Forget the dollar and gold correlation. It is broken. So even if the dollar falls back next week lets not expect gold to react too much. As Duck mentioned here the other day and a point I completely agree with, it is the Yen and only the Yen that matters where gold/currency correlations are concerned. Everything else leads to confusion and miscalls lately.

        Where metals to metals are concerned however platinum is still working the best. Gary has a perfect chart linked above showing the platinum trend line that must be broken before optimism is going to break out for metals. Unfortunately it failed at resistance today so we will have to wait a little longer to see if it takes another run and tries to break through. If it does I am onboard with him that its time to bail on the bear trades.

        Surfer also has an excellent chart on Dust up above that certainly suggests there is still a case to be made for a gold bounce that is impending very soon given that resistance on Dust. I have to add that he is making a more convincing case for gold today than I am. So who here does not love charts!

        1. Robert

          Thx I agree with y’all about ICLs resetting sentiment, it has more than succeeded. Anymore downside and I will not look back at my trading platform till Dec

    2. sess

      We had a similar IC in December. I feel sick too and hate gold and never want to trade an IC again – I’ll listen to Gary on the old turkey next time.

  9. Steffmeister

    We Elliott Wavers are very calm right now, just waiting for next leg up. All YCl-ICl fake cycles analysis dudes seems very emotional and unsecure.

    A low very soon, maybe it’s already in. We are looking forward to a rally and a new low in 40-60days.

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