$GOLD
The first retest of the 200 DMA is the second best buying opportunity in a new bull market.
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Smart Money Tracker
$GOLD
The first retest of the 200 DMA is the second best buying opportunity in a new bull market.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
You’re so right Gary. This Gold Bull will last many years to come. Most retail
Traders will not make any money because they don’t have the guts and patience
To ride the bull. People today are wired for instant gratification. Like you’ve said
Before, it really doesn’t matter where you’ve bought this baby bull, you will
Make money. This is an opportunity that only comes around 2 or 3 times in a lifetime.
Excellent entry point right here!!!
Never mind gold. I am curious how you chose your name Earth Kitten. Great handle. Are you a girl?
agree with you about the instant gratification comment, kitten
Do you have a video on what makes this time different? Comparing lets say 2013 to now? Reading back through the blog, i see you were calling for the same action then, culminating around 2015 with a blow off top.
Well clearly this is no blow off top as gold is 0% above the 200 DMA.
I didnt mean this is the blow off top. My point was, the video from 2013 sounded equally confident as your recent videos that gold would roar for years, culminating in a blow off top in 2015/16. So i was curious for an explaination of how the current gold situation is different from then. Though I see youve exit positions and even stated that gold may return to a bear market. So I guess I dont need the comparison video anymore.
lol Rupp. Good spot. That is why, we must not blindly follow others. We need to trust price action. If gold really breaks down, be careful. Those that blindly followed Gary in 2013 really lost a lot of money.
Nonsense. We exited in late January 2013. Those that lost a lot of money ignored that exit.
“We exited in late January 2013”. Come on Gary. really? You really should go back and read your commentary back in 2013. You were ultra bullish on gold during the months of February of 2013, providing a chart showing your expectation for gold to sky rocket . Were you telling your subscribers something different than what was printed here on the blog? You mentioned a price of $3200. You were also expecting a final top for the S&P. None of those expectations worked out.
Exactly what I was referring to. The vidoes from then sounded exactly like the last few weeks. Gold to the moon, no stopping it. 2-3 year run’ blow off top 2015/16. That’s why I was wondering if he had a video addressing how that failed rally was different than now. Appears it may be no different?
Ahmmm… January 24th 2013:
“I think I’ve had enough. For what ever reason liquidity from QE4 is being prevented from flowing into the metals for now. I don’t think it can last forever but it’s certainly been successful for the last two months. (I’m wondering if this has something to do with Germany repatriating their gold.)
The miners are acting like gold is going to generate another left translated cycle. If that happens then it could be 4-6 weeks before another ICL.
I”ll hold the LEAPS as there’s no sense selling the GDX calls, but everything else gets jettisoned until I see a rising intermediate cycle.”
Keep in mind the LEAPs were only a 6% position so no massive damage from those.
After this it just became a game of trying to pick intermediate cycle lows and make a little money off them if we could. We made a modest amount but nothing spectacular.
chrisG.. I’ve been a subecriber since 2011……and I recall Gary telling subscribers to EXIT the metals in late January 2013………..I didn’t and it cost me !!!
“I just have no idea how to trade managed markets like this so I’m going to extract myself from this mess now while we still have good gains in the metals (+54% as of yesterday) and stock portfolio (+74%) and only modest losses in the energy (-13%) and currency portfolio (-1.5%).
From here on out I’m going to do the same thing as every other analyst. I’ll give you my best idea as to what is going on but it will be up to you as to how you should trade it, or not.
If you think gold will be allowed to rally then stay long, leveraged or unleveraged it’s up to you. If you think it’s being capped at $1275 and they are going to prevent gold from rising above that level, then get out and salvage what’s left before they kill the bull market again.
***** I really have no idea at this point. *****
I can’t tell if the banks are trying to engineer a shakeout to accumulate more shares, or whether they are trying to halt the A-wave.”
– Gary Savage, 10/25/16
Exactly!
Exactly… exactly what..???!
We are out still with a gain anyone would be happy with. Now we wait for either gold to break free and get above the 1275 cap or another DCL, which ever comes first.
There is clearly a cap being put on gold at 1275. Every time it threatens to break through that level we get big contract dumps to stop the rally. At this point though I can’t tell if the attacks are just trying to slow the rally so the banks can pile on more shares and ounces, or whether they are trying to force another daily cycle before they release gold into the next intermediate cycle.
Well done Gary. I like you better every day and it is more than refreshing to read a market leader say exactly what is on the minds of plenty of other people. Of course we don’t know what will happen in the next few days or weeks even though we might be damned positive of the larger trend. When I get that feeling I just do nothing. The more obvious trades will show themselves in good time so a little patience pays off. There is really nothing worse than trying to force trades based on beliefs, gut instincts or ego.
So Gary you suggest we should buy gold shares here but you are waiting for a up break or a DCL….
Well I’ll say this, Gary. At least you are willing to admit when you are wrong or don’t know. Most others are not willing to take a side or admit when they are wrong and I commend you for at least that. We’ll see how this shakes out and I’ll just keep buying the miners all the way down to add to my already overweight position.
I’m really am thinking about starting my own trading website though…. I can at least get paid for sounding like I know something and join the stage no nothings in the gold market.
I got news for you. No one knows the future. We all just use the tools we’re comfortable with to try and get an edge.
Of course if you are a huge bank and too big to fail then there are no laws governing you and you can control the market. So no edge needed 🙂
So the Model Portfolio has been shut down again? Seems this happened a couple times before.
You have often boasted about your portfolio performance but how does one track trade portfolio performance if you keep resetting it when the numbers start to look bad?
I’ll do the same thing as everyone else in the business. I’ll give my best advice based on the tools I prefer and eveyone can make their own decision.
I shut down the model portfolio with decent to good gains in both stocks and metals. Energy a modest loss. Currencies flat.
Now I’ll play on the same stage as everyone else.
So you took the losses in your 3x long miner positions and incorporated those losses into a final portfolio performance on a YTD basis?
Correct. We were up 127% before the last trade. We dropped back to only being up 53%.
Interesting, you sold miners at a loss and you continued to tell people how bullish gold is even with that ridiculous video then now saying that traders “months from now….blah blah blah…stupid and etc.” Are you including yourself as one of the trader in that statement?
Heck no I didn’t sell my positions. That would be crazy. I like to sell at the top of intermediate cycles, not at the bottom.
I just closed the model portfolio.
Now traders can make their own decision where they want to place stops.
I’m just playing on the same field as everybody else now.
Just asking as I still show GDX chopping in a Bear Flag for now but Time is starting to become an issue unless price can break the flag to the upside and soon.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=385099
I am not sure if you had good gains on your recent jnug you bought at 23$?
To ltr’s comment, “so you sold, yet continued to post how bullish gold is in videos”.
I guess that explains why the 2013 videos were still calling to the moon, yet he posts quotes saying he told everyone to sell.
Platinum is trying to break through its intermediate down trend line today…
Clearly another DCL for gold is coming Gary. Too much weakness. Unless their is an impulsive move up gold gaining 20+ dollars its gonna make a new DCL
Robert it is starting to look that way. If you choose to stop out just don’t be afraid to pull the trigger again at the next DCL.
Yup, that is a technical breakout alright but it did not hold for the session thus far. If we close above the line then metals will likely turn positive.
Close but no cigar. All we got was a reversal spike and plat is again threatening to go lower. Miners are in trouble too. Check out a few of the charts. Nugt has sniffed out a gold decline early. I don’t like its action of the past week and Dust has broken out and might turn impulsive if the highs of today hold. Meanwhile the 20 has intersected with the 200 on GLD implying a sharp decline is ahead. By my reading anyway. Looks like the selling is gaining momentum so traders are disheartened that gold has so little conviction near its 200. Too bad but that’s how she goes folks. Over and out.
Of course, I didn’t even mention that GDX has again broken below its 200 EMA, that GDXJ has fairly good resistance at its 100 or that the HUI also failed at the 200 yesterday and just got a little worse this afternoon. No doubt that .75% dive in the Yen back near 95 had something to do with it and unless the Yen turns tail and heads back up quick then there is going to be no rescue in sight. And its down she goes boys (and the Kitten).
Gary,
I have been looking into finding a leveraged ride for Platinum but I cannot find anything suitable; it seems it even has better percent rise prospects than gold now.
Isn’t Palladin a platinum miner?
Alex, have you bailed out of your long treasury position?
yes, Don, I was stopped out yesterday with a -0.3% equity loss.
Treasuries want one more daily cycle before completing the current IC.
If you wonder why I had put such a low risk (0.3% only) for this position is because, as I touted/tweeted here on July11, I think treasuries most likely had silently topped in their looong multi-decade bull market on July 10, so that any long-treasuries trade is counter-trend, hence very risky.
There goes DXY, gold still not gathering much momentum here with the dollar slipping.
And there goes yen too. Uh oh. Not good news for gold if this keeps up for long,
What is the fundamental factor with the yen that makes you think it drives gold. Are the Japanese the largest traders in the gold market and when the yen drops they abandon gold???
That doesn’t seem to make any logical sense?
Do some research on the “Yen Carry Trade.”
The Yen peaked in 2011, same as Gold. All the big banks, since 2011, have been massively borrowing the Yen at zero interest and using the funds to short the Gold and the rest of the PM Complex…. The Yen rising early in 2016, along with Gold, required the banks to unwind their Yen Carry Trades in a massive short squeeze.
It would appear that the Yen Carry trade is now back in vogue. 😉
Why would they use the funds to short gold when there is a hell of a lot more money to be made buying the stock market?
The gold market is miniscule compared to the stock or bond market. Huge institutions are never going to be able to place the kind of massive positions they need in that tiny market. They have to invest in the stock or bond market.
For me to accept a correlation like the yen gold one you are suggesting there has to be a logical reason for it. I don’t see one and the yen carry trade certainly doesn’t explain it.
When I can find no logical reasoning behind a correlation I question whether it’s just coincidence or not.
Actually Gary, if you look at the value of the yen, the nikkei and the price of gold during the big devaluation 2012-2015. The correlation is almost perfect between them all. (Though you have to inverse the nikkei i think. Check it out. I don’t know if the carry trade is back in vogue. I don’t think it would be because you can now borrow any currency from any country at 0% interest.
BTW, the Yen is moving into its YCL and I’ve been shorting it with YCS for weeks now as I a have posted previously.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=383864
The Yen may find YCL support at the 200ma near 93 where I will likely take profits on my YCS trade. It may also break the 200ma as it often does during YCLs and not find support until the 90-91 range. Back on Sept 24th, I showed the USD may have had a “stealth ICL” in mid-August. If correct, it will not likely be moving into an ICL anytime soon.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=382241
Fair enough question Gary. To tell the truth I can’t answer it. All I know is that Yen correlates well to gold and has for a very long time. Surfer has a reasonable answer but I will have to look deeper at it to see if the explanation makes sense. Not every correlation does though. I usually just accept them at face value until they don’t work anymore.
Btw, platinum is technically on a breakout from its resistance so we will have to monitor closely now because it could be telling us a bounce is in store for metals as you originally asserted was going to take place.
Don, in addition to what I said above, to be clear, I do not like trading counter the main trend but, when there is a an advance in a new IC, I may take a position, and if its an advance in a new YC, then….I definitely take a position 🙂 because the trend (even if it is counter) can produce a momentum / tide strong enough to justify “harvesting” a good, a low risk/reward ratio.
Treasuries are not on month 16 of their YC and in order to complete their current DC they have to extend into November, i.e. month 17.
THUS, TREASURIES ARE ABOUT TO GET REALLY OVERSOLD AND RIPE FOR HARVESTING 🙂 before starting their new YC (I expect treasuries to bottom in their YCL even before the rate hike in Dec).
error correction: “treasuries are NOW on month 16” instead of “not” 🙂
checking out for today. nighty, nighty!
Keep me informed on this trade idea. I am interested. Got links to an analysis? I’d like to short the bond market, but i also dont want to stand in front of a train. Best to get in at a daily/ICH and then trail stops.
Gold: if it pierces down thru teh 200 day MA next support is 1200 which will be a screaming BUY if it happens.
Funny but that is exactly my target on gold. Just a little below 1200 to be mre precise at which point I am a buyer for a bounce. But not a long holder because I don’t yet believe 1200 will be the low resting place.
Aaah Good. Yes it may go there to 1200, so people should not get their knckers all bunched up if it does. Just buy add more.
If someone is in a rush, he can buy now. But, more likely than not, we could get a lower low and a better buying opportunity down the road. At some point, the tepid bounces (itsy bitsy counter moves) will transform into impulsive moves. We will know in time who is more in tune with price movement:folks who buy now or those who buy later.
Cycle study needs to be supplemented by other technical indicators in 3 time frames, at least: weekly, daily and 60 minutes to get a proper fix on price movement. Interested folks can look up books by Alexander Elder, Sam Weinstein and others.
Markets are treacherous. Technical indicators and cycles which worked for a while may not work as well in other circumstances. Therefore, plurality is needed to maximise a successful outcome plus a deep humility and the ability to handle success without heating up.
Gold 200 WMA is at 1275.42. Hence the issues there. The last time it broke through? Brexit. Maybe election can do it? I don’t claim to know, but I’m not sold on “manipulation” triggering at 1275.
It’s pretty clear if you watch an intraday volume chart. Any time gold threatens to break through 1275 we get from 6,000-15,000 contracts dumped on the market.
This is way beyond the position limits, but then again the rules governing the futures market haven’t beend enforced for years now.
Like I’ve said many times before. After the crash in 2008 it became a free for all and the banks got the all clear to make money in any way they could. That of course included manipulating markets if possible.
“….1275 cap ” Can’t really see a cap in gold more of a strengthened dollar. Question; Why would the dollar fall before the December rate decision? Logic would say the dollar would remain at the same level or rise until at least December, and pm’s stay at this level or fall.
It seems like every morning between 8am and 11am there is a plunge in gold but yet the there have been higher lows since 10/7. I think alot of traders got scared or frustrated this morning and had enough.
Gold gets beaten around every day but is hanging in there. Dollar nearing top of channel. It’s important to lock in gains but there’s still a chance for gold. I’ve moved my line in the sand up to 1265, if it breaks again, I’m done and will wait for a better entry.
What about GDP numbers tomorrow?
A bad print and rate hike odds could drop, giving gold the boost it needs to clear 1275.
Even tho, this seems unlikely before the election…
This will sound nuts, but I am projecting LABU to bottom at around 19 dollars which means it will actually fall below this years lowest point. The pattern I see is convincing enough for me to also conclude that the only way LABU would fall that low is because we are on the cusp on some kind of stock correction in the next two months. Why else would it happen? Anything sub 20 dollars is improbable except in the case of a market selloff and if that does indeed come to pass then we should also expect miners to sell off hard, possibly even revisiting their December 2015 / January 2016 lows. It is an ugly prediction but of course it will create a fantastic buying opportunity as well. We can only wait and see. I will remind everyone of this if I turn out to be correct and explain later how I saw it coming.
You know, I probably don’t need to mention this, but there is now just 8 trading days before the Presidential Election. Maybe LABU is predicting the outcome. Hillary winning would mean a big boost for biotech and medical. A Donald victory would probably be generally negative for markets. So maybe LABU bottoms just a day or so before the big vote and bounces hard after the results. Just a thought. I really have no idea how it will turn out because the case for both seems likely. If the status quo takes the day though it should be a bad day for metals because the dollar will strengthen sharply.
Pedestrian: I don’t think your scenario is “nuts” at all. I feel much the same as you about the LABU. A stock market sell off would ravage the weak biotech sector. I am not as bearish as you are on the miners although they would certainly sell off if the stock market were to correct hard. I see sliver and platinum as being the best bets right now.
Well don, you might be the only one who does not think I am smoking pixie dust and thinking LABU is headed quite a bit lower. Glad to hear I am not completely nuts. Whatever happens though there is an excellent entry point lining up and given the chart the moves have been fairly rapid both to upside and down over fairly short time periods. This will be my first time playing ti though. It was not even on my radar until I started reading Gary’s site.
ALERT: Soros Associate Warns Fed May Use Friday’s GDP Release To Smash Gold
http://kingworldnews.com/former-soros-associate-warns-fed-may-use-fridays-gdp-release-to-smash-gold/
A bad GDP number is the last attempt for gold to get back above 1275.
If GDP is good, another leg down for gold and miners as DXY goes for 100. Would setup a nice little retracement long trade some time in November or December, but the technical damage would make the last run look more like a dead cat rather than a new bull.
Zoom out on DXY and it looks like it wants to blast thru 100 and goto 110 within a year. Where would that put gold? It wont be pretty if that happens.
Gold and the dollar have gone up together in the past, sometimes for many months. It all depends on the demand for gold, not the value of the dollar.
Right on Don. And demand for gold can relate closely to what is happening to other major currencies or to the political situation abroad. In this case we need to think like Europeans to appreciate why gold might rise in USD. The linkage is fortunately easy to express in terms everyone can understand and that is important because to catalyze a new gold bull market the public itself must know why they are getting on board. Let me explain in a little more detail. If the euro does crash as the charts suggest then 700 million people living in the Eurozone are going to see as much as a 20 to 30% devaluation of their currency. That’s a lot of people who will all be losing buying power together and as can be expected, such a devaluation is effectively an inflation event in a low growth economy. Translation: they will get nasty stagflation and in the absence of good investing alternatives the money will start to flow to where it is either preserved intact or can find even modest yield. Anything will be better than losing double digits in your cash nest egg. so capital will start to fly out of Europe. We are talking billions upon billions of dollars here moving from the worlds largest economy to anywhere better that offers preservation. Professionally managed money, hedges, and banks will lead the way but the public should not be too far behind. The vast bulk will find its way into other more stable currencies like the yen or the dollar and it will take the form of Treasury notes, corporate bonds and equities. A fraction however will move to worlds natural inflation hedge and we all know very well what that is. So gold and silver will catch a bid and the pressure generated by millions of European PM purchasers will constrict the global free floating supply of gold / silver and cause all precious metals to rise in all major currencies at once. In other words, the linkage has both fundamental and technical impetus. And that is why gold will indeed rise with the dollar beginning early next year. There is an added bonus. Weak banks and an unstable financial system in Europe combined with political discord and threats of the union itself breaking up are what will e behind a tailwind of buying turning into an avalanche. The future of gold is stellar even if it is not obvious the way we bad mouth it around here when it is performing badly. And the reasons it will rise abruptly are going to be self evident to everyone on the planet at once. You simply cannot have the EZ breaking up, damaging the euro and causing inflation within the EU without gold eventually going ballistic again. Even in US dollars as supply gets suddenly restricted. It should be quite a sight to behold.
What I am saying above it that the next gold bull is going to be a European event. That is quite unlike that gold bull of the 1970’s that was primarily driven by US inflation fears and US buyers. So we all need to stop thinking about gold in dollar terms and start watching the flow of capital itself because the marginal buyer in this next bull market is actually French, Italian or German and not the Indians and Chinese as so many expect. The reason this matters of course is because Europeans have a great deal more discretionary spending power than the average Asian and as a rule a lot more wealth to protect. Seven hundred million potential buyers is a lot of damned demand and I expect they will line up around the block in Brussels to buy gold bars and coins just as we did many decades ago in New York and LA. It is indeed possible if enough citizens of the EU get on board that gold will go into shortfall globally. And then look out above folks because its going to scare the hell out of all the metals perma bears sitting on the sidelines who will be left behind. Hopefully I have done justice to this topic of how and why gold will rise by simplifying the mechanics that lie behind the next future bull market in metals. All we really need to know is that Europeans will respond in large numbers if the Euro falls hard and that is going to be the primary gold trend driver for many years to come. For that matter, similar reasons exist for bull markets to also develop in other commodities and oil. We need to prepare for that. Anyone thinking the dollar is going to crash and burn anytime soon is just nuts so dispense with that crackpot idea fast or you will never understand what is about to happen.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&st=2009-10-27&en=(today)&id=p86224735918
An interesting read that makes the manipulation of gold case more succinctly that most I’ve read in the past few years. This definitely cannot last forever, but historically speaking, when this kind of subterfuge ends, it’s abrupt, so it’s difficult to profit from it:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/42798/the-rape-of-america-the-core-federal-election-issue
After GDP announced at 2.9%, GC between 1272.70 & 1262.00.
as of 8:50 am EST, GC 1263.80.
Don’t ya just love another beat down at the high of 1274.80.
Da boyz play it like a puppet as it’s whatever they want it to be.
Gold may not be allowed to go above 1275 until after US prez Elections.
FBI reopening Clinton investigation. Can gold surprise here and get thru 1275? All the manipulators must be scrambling to figure out what to do.