22 thoughts on “GOLD HAS COMPLETED ITS YEARLY CYCLE LOW”

  1. earthkitten

    Thanks so much Gary. You’re the best. Glad I doubled
    my Jnug position at 10.50. Thanks again for all you do.

  2. Gary Post author

    Watch now, all the analysts who have been calling for an undercut low or just generally lower prices till the end of the year. The guys that don’t run real time portfolios so they don’t have to acknowledge timing mistakes. All these guys will claim a couple of months from now that they timed the perfect bottom.

    That my friends is how you sell subscriptions. You never go out on a limb and make a real time call. You always hedge your bets. You never never never run a real time portfolio, and then after the fact you claim to have called every move perfectly.

    I don’t play that game here at the SMT. Sometimes I get a call wrong and it’s right there for everyone to see because I do run a real time portfolio. The good thing is that it’s a bull market so there maybe mistimed trades but there won’t be any losing trades.

  3. Gary Post author

    I think those foolish enough to short the stock market ahead of the elections based on the failed daily cycle better be careful. Remember you are playing against an opponent with a printing press and it looks to me like they have likely aborted the rest of the ICL … for now.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    SPX=2148
    Resumed my shorts of SPX.
    The dead cat bounce is over or really very close to topping.

    1. rayalex123

      JNUG is fine for trading the daily / intermediate cycles, which is in effect what the article says.

      1. Surf City

        Early parts of cycles yes. I myself have a NUGT position from late last week when I started rebuilding my trading mining shares after the big drop. At this point, however, all my trading positions are on a “tight leash” until I am convinced that the IC Low is behind us. We should know one way or another over the next several days.

        If my price channel is broken I will stand aside, especially with 3xers.

        1. Gary Post author

          I don’t see any posts from last week where you were buying. I do see lots of posts from people assuming they were seeing bear flags in the metals. I have a real beef with people who come on after the fact and claim to have made a perfect trade. I have to make my calls in real time. Everyone else should to.

          I’m not saying you are doing this as you aren’t trying to sell a newsletter, but this is the favorite scam 99% of all newsletter writers like to pull. The after the fact perfect trade that suckers gullible novice traders into buying a subscription when in fact no such trades where ever made in real time. Like I said almost no newsletter writers will ever have a real time portfolio to begin with because then they would have to acknowledge poor trades. And the vast majority have no intention of ever admitting when they got one wrong.

          I’m not sure an 11% rally in basically 3 days counts as a bear flag though.

          2. Surf City

            Careful throwing stones at others Gary as you were expecting a Pendant consolidation rather than a YCL just two weeks ago. FWIW, Avi Gilbert in his public posts called this recent low to a “T”

            His Elliott Wave charts had buy boxes that were accurate from a time and price perspective. Even though he still sees the potential for an undercut low perhaps in Nov he recommended closing hedges and establishing some long positions last week as well.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, it was easy to fathom a dead cat bounce in stocks when SPX was 2117 and I touted I had covered my shorts.
    It was even easier to time now the short – distribution is obvious, the rise has not been the action of any government, it was simple market sentiment –> very easy to forecast as I have done so here real time!

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s way too late in the daily cycle for stocks to be bouncing now. They should be accelerating down in the first leg of the ICL. This should push the NYMO to deeply oversold conditions. But that’s not what is happening.

      We haven’t had a natural ICL since the 7 YCL. The last one ran for 2 days. Seriously we’re supposed to believe an ICL bottomed in only 2 days?

  8. Gary Post author

    Folks we are into the A-wave advance. This is not the time to be timid.

    If you already missed the baby bull, do you really want to follow the same people and miss the rest of the A-wave as well?

  9. zkotpen

    Gary,

    You have made your call — well, almost — in real time.

    In order for your massive bullish call to be meaningful, you know you need to cap the rolling 4-5 years, as I suggested previously. After all, you’re talking 2020-21, but in less than 75 days, that will become 2021-22. One year later, that will be 2022-23, and so on, until the blow off top you suggest eventually does fall within one of your “4-5 year” time frames.

    You’ve already made the bullish call — now is this bull market going to produce massive profits by January 1, 2022? That will give you just over the “4-5 years” — and it will make your call complete.

    You know my position: You can profitably trade daily or intermediate cycles (or even shorter time frames, if you feel comfortable doing so) in the bull market, but that buying any time and holding old turkey until January 1, 2022, introduces way too much risk into an otherwise profitable trading approach

    Obviously, you and I both see this year’s price.action in metals as bullish. How that bullish action plays out going forward is where we disagree. What you suggest as probable, I see as possible yet unlikely. So we need to have a virtual pow wow on January 1, 2022, a fixed date, slightly more than 5 years from now, and not “4-5 years” that moves forward indefinitely.

    I should be able to make it to Vegas for the WSOP by then, God willing we’re both still alive, and collect my burrito. And I know you’ll love my reasoning for wanting to play the WSOP: I see a poker tournament as yet another market. As such, I strongly believe that poker players, like market gurus, pay far too much attention to what everybody else is doing, which clouds their analysis with subjectivity.

    In summ: January 1, 2022.

    1. Gary Post author

      What difference does it make if the bubble forms in 2020, 2021 or 2022?

      We will still make gains all the way up and anyone holding Old Turkey is going to make life changing profits.

      How many billionaires do you know that accumulated their wealth by short term trading, or even intermediate? I would say almost none.

      How many billionaires do you know that spotted a fundamental change or end of a bear market and just took a big position and held on till the bull was over?

      Almost all of them.

      1. zkotpen

        >>What difference does it make if the bubble forms in 2020, 2021 or 2022?<<

        I want to know when to collect my burrito!!

        And a real deal burrito. My last meal in America so far was 12/31/2012 in Chiapas — such a pleasant flavor with a real Mexican stamp on it, clearly homemade, fresh, delicious…

        I'm dreaming of my Vegas burrito, in my mind's palette… surely different from the Chiapas dish, but at least its shared DNA should be clear to the taste & smell… 😉

        1. Gary Post author

          The time to take your profits and run is when gold is showing signs of a bubble…obviously. One doesn’t have to predict that top many years in advance to know when to get out.

          Price will be stretched up to 100% above the 200 DMA and every Tom, Dick and Harry will be buying gold just like they were buying real estate 10 years ago.

          So one can just hold Old Turkey until you see the signs.

      2. rupp

        My vote goes for 2020. At this time, that’s when it appears gold will have a serious correction. End of summer.

  10. AmantedeTeclas

    Just to make sure…I am no newsletter writer. This is not for me, since I don’t trust in technicals because of all the manipulation. With infinite money and the banks knowing practially your every move in real time I ask myself how You can beat the market with just pure technicals.

    Basically everything is mispriced.

    Sometimes they work for me and sometimes not.

    I am still gambling.

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