60 thoughts on “ICL CHARACTERISTICS

  1. Gary Post author

    I have to laugh at these guys claiming to call every turn perfectly but none of them have actual real time portfolio’s. That way when they call for an 8 to 10 day rally back on Sept. 6 they can conveniently ignore the fact that the rally topped on day 2 and they never gave a sell signal.

    That’s the difference between what I do and what virtually ever other newsletter does. They all hedge their calls or have multiple alternate counts or just choose to ignore poor calls.

    Grow some balls guys and post a real time portfolio.

    There is the challenge let’s see if any of them are willing to take it.

    1. mike trike

      That is the problem I have with the Guru’s . They are always short term bearish and long term bullish or the opposite, so that they can claim victory whichever way the market turns. 3 months after the bottom or the top they will claim that they nailed the turning point but never publicly. Kudo’s to you Gary for making actual calls!

  2. zkotpen

    Alex,

    Interesting comments on the poker — surely you have heard the exact same comments about trading markets, eh??

    A poker tournament is just another market, in all respects.

    People who have experienced huge losses in any type of market often — I’m sure you’ll agree — have little or no risk management in place, little or no notion of probability of any particular outcome vis a vis other, less favorable outcomes, and either they have no strategy, or they fail to execute it properly.

    As in trading, I can’t execute on par with the experienced pros — at least not yet — but I need to make a statement. And, of course, gain the practical experience, the strategies of execution that simply take time to learn and/or develop.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    NEM – I have a full position in it after having bought at 34.03 yesterday, average cost 34.19.

  4. lokum_

    So next week Gold pops and Dollar drops which means VERY HIGH chance Trump wins massive on Sunday evening

    1. s29

      Impact of the debate could be interesting. Plus the Chinese are back in town. They like to buy cheap.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    Zkot, yeap, 1000% agreed.
    I know it from my own experience that trading w/o risk management rules is like throwing from an airplane w/o a parachute hoping to be able to fly once off the plane, into the air.
    It is risk management rules that keep from driving my trading equity bankrupt [again ๐Ÿ™‚ ]

    I revert to your comment on triangles. What about the D of the triangle, what do you mean? I am not aware of this technique.

  6. AmantedeTeclas

    Guys, no matter which way this goes, I can just repeat that this site is awesome!!! Thanks Gary for all this good stuff, thanks Alex for giving Your tips and targets as well and thanks Duck for being the staunch anti-gold-pro-oil. And thanks to everyone else.

    I got in with small positions yesterday evening and this morning, now they are all very green already. But if it goes down more I would even buy then.

  7. Dreamer

    NFP was a miss this morning regardless of the CNBS spin.

    Interesting day for sure with lots of Fed speak. Fisher that little weasel talks this morning.

    1. s29

      LOL! The Fed is total joke. I’ll bet on 2 burrito’s that they aren’t going to raise interest rates to until at least May 2017.

      The reason is very simple: companies and consumers simply don’t invest so much because of the political uncertainty! And we all know that the markets and economy hates uncertainty.

      That’s why the US GDP is only growing at 1.x% rate at the moment and the future near term forcasting is about the same. This is way too low to raise interest rates! If the Fed raise rates in this environment it simply means a stock market crash and a recession! Every idiot can see that one coming! The timing of the Fed is the worst ever.

      But they want to play bad cop-good cop with the markets, to show off their “independence” and “authority” they presume to have. Especially since Trump called out Yellen I have noticed.

      There’s not a chance in hell they raise in November, and manufacture a Trump win, and if Trump wins companies will simply holding off investments even more, if Clinton wins Yellen doesn’t want to crash the slow growing economy while Obama is still in office and Clinton has to get in yet. That would be a Bush-Obama transition disaster repeat.

      Even as Clinton wins, they want her first in Office, then lay out policies and companies are going to invest again, and that will at least take 3 months after taking Office. Idem dito with Trump. I don’t even think markets would care that much about Trump or Clinton (although Clinton will probably will mean less volatility), they want certainty of policies!

      First elections, then new president taking Office, then laying out policies and then the economy can grow again and maybe the interest rates can raise again.

      FED = BS TOUGH TALKING -> Earliest May 2017 interest rate hike! This is also the 3-year bottom in the Dollar Gary is talking about around the summer.

  8. duckwhorocks1

    No joy till 1,220 although I would like to see USD/JPY hold 103.5 weekly to confirm.

    I agree with Gary’s comments about “gurus” but he has been posting a real time portfolio for about a year while he has been selling his newsletter for 6? 7?

    1. RonL

      Not sure why you find it necessary to criticize the author in most of your post. Would seem you should just not read this author if you think your ideas and research is better. Better yet start you own site and see how many followers you get. I for one don’t need you pointing out what you think is wrong with this author and his calls.

    2. Gary Post author

      Duck,
      I’ve been tracking my rel time portfolio’s for two years. When the other gurus nut up and start posting actual real time calls then they can earn the right to criticize.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    A major alarm was triggered for as to stocks’ market, so that I took profits home by dumping on all regular-stocks positions.
    I am holding only NEM, the rest is cash.

    something bad is brewing in for the stock market….I have no idea what but price action rules.

    1. victor

      Thank you Alex, I sold 50% my bet down for oil with no loss. The rest will keep till oil down to 37.

    2. Gary Post author

      I agree. Stocks should be due for a move down into a half cycle low and I don’t like the weak rally out of the second DCL. We exited all stock positions a couple of weeks ago and probably won’t reenter until the next ICL.

      The “guru” just gave a buy signal on stocks several days ago. Of course he’ll forget about that and pretend it never happened if stocks drop.

  10. humbled

    Agreed Gary is awesome. : )

    ICL in next week earliest, though still possible to drag on a bit. Who knows we might even get a YCL when the eventual low is struck ?

    The trendline break (or lack of ) in establishing the ICL and not rigidly confined to 5-6mths intermediate cycle pduration puts experience into practice.

    yes we should not criticize author for the sake of criticism.. it is easy to use the mouth (or fingers in this case) . When we point our finger at someone we have at least 3 pointing at ourselves.

    easy to pick fault, difficult to emulate success or surpass.

  11. AmantedeTeclas

    Missed the new low of today.

    I have a good position already and don’t wanna buy more before Silver goes to 17,00

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    Welcome, Victor! Welcome H-man!
    Gary, I am very glad when we concur ! ๐Ÿ™‚

    100% cash – sold NEM at 34.02 for a tiny loss – even didnt let the stock to reach its stop level.
    I dont know how stocks’ ordeal to come may affect miners…

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not saying this will happen to you, but this is how I’ve watched many people (including myself) just cut their portfolio’s to pieces with a thousand small cuts. They require perfect entries and if they don’t make one they stop out. About 9 times out of 10 one won’t make a perfect entry so they end up taking small loss after small loss over and over trying to time an entry. Then pretty soon you’ve lost enough times that it now takes a big winner to recover, but now you are so gun shy that you can’t hold onto to anything long enough to rack up a big winner.

      This is not how billionaires make their money.

  13. Surf City

    Gary, In your Gold chart in the Video, I show your Blue line as my Yearly Cycle trend line only my blue line connects to the May 31st low. If you connect the Blue line there, it shows that Gold broke the line a few days ago and then back tested for a few days before the big drop.

    To me that was one of my signals to go short with DUST and ZSL and the last chance to liquidate any longs before the move into the YCL.

    Here is my post on Oct 3rd regarding Gold’s shorter term Daily Cycle.

    https://goldtadise.com/?p=382876

  14. Surf City

    The GDX gap up from the May 31st Low (which I still see as an ICL) has now been filled. One of the signs I was looking for in the bottoming process.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Surfer, I just checked Your site. You really nailed it with the key forecasts. Why don’t You do more videos? ๐Ÿ™‚
      Keep it up!!!

      1. Surf City

        My Cycle stuff is free on GoldTent and you can find a link to all my posts down the right side link section under the “Surf City” tab.

        I stay fairly busy with my consulting work and trading so I post when I can. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. Surf City

      It may well be the ICL but I am less certain than Gary. Intermediate Cycle lows are a reflection of swings in investor sentiment and the Time that typically takes is 5-6 months. I have a Gold ICL on May 31st and we are now 4+ months which is short but it might be enough given how oversold the oscillators are.

      YCL’s are nasty affairs, however, so I tend to be cautious until my IC Downtrend line is breached to the upside.

  15. TraderPete

    We got a key reversal on the buy side in silver today and a buy signal from the RSICrossover indicator. We also didn’t get follow through on the downside when price broke through the lower line of the retracement channel. Happy days are here again!! Buy, Buy, Buy!!

    1. Gary Post author

      Maybe.

      The banks my hit it again Monday or Tuesday to trigger more stops and allow them to accumulate even larger positions.

      1. mike trike

        Could happen but China is back on Sunday so I think today was their last attempt. Look at the volume on JNUG!

        1. Surf City

          Remember the price of JNUG has lost almost 70% of its value since its August high. Volume alone can be misleading. Looking at total $ flow is more accurate, IMO.

          That said, we should be close to a DCL and perhaps an ICL as well.

          1. mike trike

            True, but compare the volume today to the volume spike at the beginning of June at the last bottom. Volume is double that of the June low and price is around the same.

      2. mike trike

        Also the chart you posted in yesterday’s video played out exactly as forecasted by you, except a day or two earlier. Either way I bought some JNUG today.

      3. TraderPete

        Gary, I believe the banks are closed on Monday due to the Columbus Day holiday, and the Chinese will be back from vacation to snap up all that cheap gold and silver.

  16. duckwhorocks1

    Just looked at the COT.
    As the Gold price decline by $50 the small specs ADDED 3,000 net contracts.
    I think $1,150 is now a shoe in.
    Unless the small guy gives up this thing is not bottoming.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Hello Duck and thanks a lot for pointing out what You through analysys come to regard as right and true.

      All this discussion goes back and forth about gold, but I haven’t actually noticed anyone here writing about the precious-industrial metals like silver, platinum and palladium. I have never really understood gold and why people would attribute so much value to it. But that is just what the markets do.

      The other metals, however, show clearly defined supply-demand fundamentals. So what do You think about them? Are they also too expensive in Your view? I mean, we clearly need them and a lot of mines around the world produce at a loss at those prices.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Hi AT,
        I think platinum is very cheap compared to gold as it never trades at such a large discount to gold. I think over the next 12 months platinum should start trading at a premium to gold. The cash costs on platinum are around $1,500 an ounce. So yeah I love platinum.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    David Silver, stock market is losing breadth fast.
    I don’t want to be in such an environment.
    I am expecting harsh weeks for stocks and I cannot infer how that may inflict miners.

    Miners may rise to a new DCH but to succomb quickly ss the overall stock market drags them.
    It is better to watch the ping pong and the ordeal to come from the sidelines.
    I am satisfied with what I have

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, miners should rise for a few sessions in a new DC but there is no way of sticking to a stock just to play the wannabe a billionaire song.
    On NEM I have lost merely -0.1% of my equity ๐Ÿ™‚
    I will fish somthg great later, as I SEE STOCK MARKET BREADTH COMING UP FROM ITS LOWS NOT THE OTHER WAY ROUND, as it is the case now.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    …one last word: no investor would have been hit by a market crash EVER, should he minded to a fast deteriorating market breadth coming down from great highs.
    The wise gets off when breadth shrinks from elevated levels, it is like a wooden ladder starting to squeak before cracking.
    Nighty nighty

  20. David Silver

    Simply put bail ALL long positions NOW!

    Thanks Alex for all of your contributions here โค๏ธ……. have a well deserved weekend my friend.

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