22 thoughts on “OIL – TIME FOR CAUTION?”

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m a bit leery of holding an Old Turkey position in oil.

      Oil was the leader during the first phase of the commodity bull from 2000 to 2008, during the expansion of China and emerging markets. The second phase should be led by the precious metals, and maybe agriculture, and it should be driven by currency devaluations.

      I’m more comfortable holding Old Turkey in the metals. Plus miners had a much more destructive bear market and should generate a much bigger bull market.

      1. victor

        Listened well known in Canada Don Coxe yesterday, he pointed out for a pretty good harvest in agriculture and suggested prices to stay or grow slowly compare to metals…

      2. duckwhorocks1

        The larger bear market in Gold stocks was because of relentless dilution, not because they were unfairly punished.
        Besides that, Peak to Trough % decline in oil was around 75% versus 45% for Gold.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    I am well positioned – this week I’ve opened the following positions:
    1) 3x-long treasuries, weight 22% of equity,
    2) 3x-long gold, 25%
    3) 3x-short SPX, 25%.

    I expect the ICL in stocks late next week, on Thursday/Friday.
    I’ll reload individual stocks there (eg, BCOV, CARB, SPAR, WB, YELP, SLP, QCOM).

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Hi Alex. I just listened to an interview with John Rubino. He brought up a point that has been on my mind for some time but I did not pay much attention lately which actually has been a mistake.

      It relates to Gary’s statement about never going short on stocks ( and maybe other assets). First You got moneyprinting by the central banks and commercial banks thus having access to a huge and ever expanding capital pool and then You get central banks that are buying stocks relatively indiscriminately ( example Japan).

      I am asking because You are now short SPX. With central banks overtly or covertly buying stocks relatively indiscriminately, and commercial banks throwing around money in the stock market at every turn if they like, how can You think to ever get any reliable price signals for Your short-positioning from analysis of any kind?

      I mean, the banksters sit in bed with government and their are talks behind closed doors every day.

      I followed many bear sites during those years and they all thought that at this or that turn they could go short and they all saw so much of their capital going up in flames.

      PEOPLE shorted TESLA, NETFLIX and UBER etc. based on earnings at every technical turn and sometimes it worked, sometimes not.

      This is an honest question, not a statement.

      Where do You get Your confidence?

  3. Gary Post author

    Like I pointed out last week I think the euro has to break the Brexit lows before the cycle bottoms (and the dollar tops).

    Sentiment is pushing extremes now in both currencies so we should be ripe for an intermediate turn in both very soon.

    I’ll be the first to admit I didn’t anticipate a 40+ day cycle in the dollar. This may be a record for stretched cycles.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    It is day 30 of USX not 40; last DCL was on SEP8 in an expected shortened DC.

    Even if I’ve been the advocate of a stronger-than-expected dollar to produce at lest a break of the weekly down trend line if not an outright higher high (YCH) – and you, Gary, dubbed me as “wrong” – USX has over-extended beyond my expectations.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      SPX rise to 2147 today had nothing to do with governmental intervention, it was clear footprint of retailers buying into weakness.

      1. Gary Post author

        We’ll see if the market gets rescued by the end of the day.

        No way I would short this market. I’m happy to sit on the sidelines.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    with USX having come so far, it should reach at least 98.55 before topping.
    Hope it will do it tomorrow.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    Amante,
    As a proof is MY VIRTUALLY SEAMLESSLY ACCURATE ENTRIES AND EXIT stand my tweets here:
    1) when I announced here my entry at SPX=2168 on OCT10 (and the top that day was 2169.60),
    2) then my exit of the short at 2117 and at 2118 on OCT13 (and the low was 2114.72) AND I ACCURATELY FORECAST A DEAD CAT BOUNCE
    3) yesterday re-shorted and tweeted at 2148 and the top of the day was …………… 🙂 2148.44

    I rarely go short stocks and when I do it I rely on ALL THINGS FALLING NICELY INTO THE “BEAR” CONCLUSION as it has been lately.

    It is hard to cover what these “ALL THINGS” are (I also think I do not have an interest to) but I have already given some hints in my twits: MY ACCURACY OF FORECASTING AND PERFECTLY TIMING THESE SHORTS AND EXIT RELY SIGNIFICANTLY ON MARKET BREADTH and sentiment.

    But above all these forecasts and timings reigns RISK MANAGEMENT: even if I get it wrong, I am stopped out with a manageble loss relative to my equity….You will never here from me statements such as : “this month a I got 5% of my equity wiped”…not to mention 10% or 20%.
    It is virtually impossible.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      I know about Your forecasts Alex.

      I shorted a bank a week ago successfully when You stated that they were about to break down.

      I am just wondering that You seem to never bother about manipulation. You refute Gary all the time. Which I find very interesting. I figure you are a day trader. So, in this shot time frame You never bother then.

      But again pointing to the banks. Banks internationally ( well, US and Europe) had a pretty strong comeback. It was not just a dead cat bounce to my humble mind and the ECB statements were clearly intended to stablize the market and helped to power bank stocks above their resistances.

      Well, I will see. Thanks Alex. Good luck.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        I am not a day trader, i am a momentum trader witha time frame from 2 days to several months.

        Yes, I do not think it is accurate thinking that the US government is always there manipulating the market. I think they do intervene in real bear markets but not every now and then.

        On the other hand, this assumption, of continuous governemntal interventionsim, serves well bloggers to put a blame on for wrong shots.
        Being wrong is not a problem, it is a normal thing in trading as long as you do not get hurt when it happens but bloggers are keen to score +90% accurate hits to sell subscriptions and that’s why they keep on play on the continuous FED interventionism.

        Thank you, Amante!
        I am out today.

  9. Don

    Absolutely no one is expecting the stock market to dump big before the election, because, so the thinking goes, that will not be permitted to happen because it might weaken Hillary. I say, a dump is not only possible, but probable. A frightening drop in the stock market would help Hillary, not hurt her as people turn to the safety of the known ‘devil’ versus the unknown of Trump.

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