1. duckwhorocks1

    Another 10 months and then you will be right…perhaps….in GDX. Till then it is stocks and oil (energy stocks) time.

    1. Gary Post author

      The longest correction during the last bull phase ran 9 weeks. The miners are currently on week 8.

      Why would you think this would run 5 times longer than any other correction in a bull market?

      1. duckwhorocks1

        1) It is your assumption it is a bull market. If you check your blog entries from 2011-2015 you have been premature a few times.
        2) I am telling you time to exceed prior high.
        a) in 2002 the price took one year to exceed the prior high. See on your chart.
        b) At the end of 2003 price took 2 years to exceed the prior high….again on your chart.
        c) in 2006 the high made was exceeded after more than a year..funnily enough …on your chart.
        d) in 2008…yeah I think you get it.

        1. Gary Post author

          The bottom occurred in 2008???

          What does new highs have to do with anything. By the time one waits for new highs a huge chunk of the rally has already passed.

          I don’t want to get in after gold has already rallied 90% and the miners several hundred %. I want to ride the A-wave up.

          Also as you know I was picking intermediate cycle bottoms. We made money riding those rallies even if the bear wasn’t finished yet.

          But it is clearly finished now. So there is no doubt this is a correction in a new bull market. During the last bull the longest a corrective phase lasted was 9 weeks before the bottom was in and the next leg up began.

          1. duckwhorocks1

            The top in 2008 was not exceeded for 2 years.
            So when I say GDX will not see $32 for 10 more months….I have been saying that already for 8 weeks. …..I have history on my side.

            Why would you wait to invest after it has gone up?
            The point is to invest in anything that has the highest chance of making money quickly. GDX is dead money. Just wait till oil prices start crushing their profits.
            Energy and SPX look much better.

        2. bill

          The quack quacking again… the reversal must be close, that is when most trolls do their best work.

  2. Diller55

    Hi Gary,

    Have you looked at longterm historical comparison, ie isn’t there the risk that the bear was too short at only 5 years, aren’t gold bears normally a lot longer? Thanks.

    1. Gary Post author

      Secular bears maybe yes. But this wasn’t a secular bear. It was a cyclical bear and one that was manufactured by market manipulation. Still it generated one of the most destructive bear markets in history. The junior miners lost over 90% of their value.

      A bear market that deep will create the largest bull market any of us will ever see in our lifetime.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    gold/miners are not the issue here.

    It’s simply the power of the yearly cycle of USX which demands at least break of the weekly downward trend line to confirm the new YC.
    USX may even go as high as above 97.62 in order to set its YCH before rolling over for good into its YC decline.

    Regardless of how high USX goes, it is now late in its DC (day 18), so that the advance will be quick and strong, a buying climax through the end of this week – exactly how tops are usually set.

  4. duckwhorocks1

    $1,300 taken out like I said. GDX bear flag breaking. My $22 GDX call from 7 weeks backs is more than 60% done.
    What worries me for the bullish outlook is that the COT is just not resetting. People keep piling in.
    Makes me think $1,150 is not out of the question.

  5. vanbc

    today’s gold close price will determine is it a bear trap or not? pay attention that DXY did not break out previous high(sept 21)

  6. boltfan13

    Congrats to all the Gold sub-1300 callers here. Enjoy your virtual burritos! On the flip side, I’m impressed that Gary has at least taken a keen interest in the concept of the “undercut” low lately. “All your stops are belong to us.” -Smart Money

  7. AmantedeTeclas

    Well, I don’t know.

    …Just took my second tranche in silver. It is on support.

    Luckily, it was the better choice to be cautios here. I actually would have expected it to behave like oil before it popped up.

  8. AmantedeTeclas

    Well, don’t really know if it means anything…

    …but the dollar just made the infamous tripple-top and broke the neckline.

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