I noted in my previous video that I didn’t like the upside potential for stocks. They were too stretched above the 200 DMA, and the COT was too bearish. It now looks like stocks may be starting an intermediate degree decline. There is risk this could drag oil down with it. So I don’t think I would want to be long energy at this time either.

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  1. zkotpen

    Hi Alex!

    Here’s what I was talking about in real time: So far, present price action in gold ~1262, is looking very much like a wave C of triangle. Same mathematical signature appeared on GDX yesterday afternoon.

    As long as gold remains below Monday’s peak, that scenario is in play: Triangle consolidation prior to a move down into DCL.

    1. Gary Post author

      No. Still bearish. The dollar would have to go above 100 for me to turn bullish and I thinkit’s putting in an intermediate top very soon.

  2. zkotpen

    PS: Short GDX since yesterday afternoon — shorted a little prematurely, but I felt 23.36 would hold…

    We shall see soon enough!

  3. Don

    Biotech (IBB) never did turn up it’s 200 DMAs. Looks to me like it’s headed back in that those levels. The dollar is looking stronger every day. It might be a good time to consider a revision some of your forecasts Gary.

    1. Gary Post author

      We got out at the top of biotech and I will look to buy again once stocks complete their ICL.

      The dollar delivered a very stretched cycle but still making lower highs. Unless it goes above 100 I’m still lbearish.

  4. Don

    I meant Biotech (XBI) is headed to it’s 200 DMA. IBB has already gone through it . Nothing bullish about a 200 DMA that does not to turn up after a big run.

  5. Don

    Too many are looking for another leg down for gold and waiting. I am buying now as the reversal could be very quick and through the night.

  6. zkotpen

    FOMC meeting & minutes are always good for 1-3 reversals in gold & miners…

    … I think there are a couple more on the way twixt now & Friday’s close (or Monday)!

  7. eddy1974

    Where are going dollar? We need see gold at1220$ for a reverse? Miners e junior haven’t do swing : it’s correct?

  8. AmantedeTeclas

    High Gary, and thanks a lot.

    What do You think about platinum? Any idea why prices have gone so low, i.e. why the Platinum-premium to Gold has vanished?

    Thanks. Have a good one and keep goin higher!!! πŸ˜€

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    ZKOT, back to my computer after a one-day off.
    I see nothing has happened: neither my long-gold position was stopped out nor my buy-stop above 1267 was hit to get to a full long-gold position.

    I see what you mean.
    I think the key of all you’ve said here is, quote, “As long as gold remains below Monday’s peak”.
    Not surprisingly, we are both pivoting our short-term strategy on gold around its charting [or not] that swing low above 1267 :):)

    I personally think it will to it today (and I will thus have a full long-gold position) and the key to all this is the ultra-extended USX, the bull trap it is setting and which will be soon revealed.
    USX’ mean reversal down into its DCL will be violent and maybe, its current indecision at 98.02, is that moment of stillness that any object thrown vertically in the air has when it tops, right before falling.

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    Treasuries are today on day 1 of a new intermediary cycle.
    They are worth buying. I’ll buy TMF at the open.

    On the other hand, I expect this IC not to deliver a higher ICH and to be left-translated.
    I will dump my TMF holding right before elections – Hilary’s win will drive treasuries in daily cycle decline.

  11. Gary Post author

    The euro appears to be in its final bloodbath phase decline into its ICL. It probably has to drop below the Brexit low before its done. 3-4 more days.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Gary, I doubt EUR has more time to drop (USX to go up respectively).

      We will see USX going down today – it is highly exhausted and ripe for smart money starting to take profits home.
      A violent fall of USX and a surge for EUR are to come later today !

  12. boltfan13

    Gary, why are you looking for a long in biotech? Both IBB and XBI are putting in lower lows and lower highs on a monthly chart. 200 dma is declining as Don mentioned above. Highs were over a year ago. Nowhere close now. The trend is down. The trend is your friend, no?

    1. Gary Post author

      Well because I think the bottom is in and they will now start to make higher highs and higher lows.

      I don’t typically wait for those kind of confirmations because you end up missing too much of the move.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    That Biotechs are a laggard group in this multi-year stocks cycle is once again underscored by its leading the decline of all market into a confirmed intermediary cycle decline – there is no other group as damaged as biotechs – that’s the very definition of laggardness.

    Laggards are always enticing because they are at lows and drive junior traders into buying the dip of price (instead of buying dips of risk/reward ratio).

    The leading group in this cycle is Cloud stocks. They should be targeted instead.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would differ in that the leading sector has to get beat up very badly during the 7 YCL. That’s what creates the fuel for the next leg up in the bull.

      A perfect example is oil. Look how badly it got beat up when it dropped down into its 3 year cycle low in 2006/07. No one wanted to buy oil at that time because it was a laggard. But look what happened.

      In order to make really big moves the rubber band has to get stretched far to the downside. That’s what happened to biotech.

  14. zkotpen


    You may be right, but I believe there’s still a move down in gold & EURUSD left in this daily cycle.

    In September, I watched gold oscillate beautifully above and below the 20 day SMA — that’s why I was convinced it would drop to test the 200 day SMA in this daily cycle.

    This week, I watch gold, one degree lower, oscillating above & below the 50 hour SMA — consolidating before one more move down in this cycle.

    So the way I see it, it’s a matter of shrinking volatility at that smaller degree — and since today’s peak in gold, price action continues to look corrective — i.e., wave D down, to be followed by a wave E bounce, in both miners & gold, which may be short & swift, like Friday, Sep 30, then another wave down. My original target was around 21.39 for GDX, just based on the October move down being equal to the August move down from 31.79.

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    well, ZKOT, as a general rule of trading gold, I prefer to watch gold always through the filter of USX regardless of what gold “says” on its own.
    particularly as to what’s now occurring in the markets, I think that stocks’ walk into the slaughterhouse will precipitate USX’ dive towards its DCL – it may be a matter of minutes or seconds from now…..

    and such a violent South move of USX will drive a North move for gold very very soon.

  16. duckwhorocks1

    USD should top here.
    But USD/JPY is just beginning its move up and Gold will follow that (inversely) to a sub $1,200 print.

    1. bill

      If gold didn’t make it to 1200 on this correction it’s not going there at all … keep dreaming .

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Are you the same DB who kept making fun when I said GDX would hit $22 when it was $29 and it did?
        Same guy who said I was “quacking” when I added that GDX will not cross $32 for 12 months and now that scenario looks a lot more probable?
        Just saying…maybe a little more humility will help in life.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    SPX=2118 –> covered the other half of my SPX short.

    Stocks set their HCL today –> a dead-cat bounce is next.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    gold = 1258.75 …and watch out now carefully what’s up on gold’s market !!! πŸ™‚
    now it is the last trial of retailers to short gold down to 1257 WHERE SMART MONEY WILL START LOADING UP BIG, BIG TIME!
    It’s so much fun! πŸ™‚

  19. eddy1974

    thanks Alex,
    but i’m sorry i dont undestand your answer.
    Do you think today is DCL for miners and gold?

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      I think DCLs were several days ago: for gold on Friday and for miners 2 days ago.
      whatsoever, I am personally invested long in gold (not in miners) at 1259 with an important part of a full position and I am awaiting gold to reach >1267 before I have a full position (i.e. maximum 25% of all my trading equity).

  20. Don

    Gary, I didn’t know that you got out of the Biotechs at their top. Good for you but you should post some of those trades her on this blog in real time as that would certainly go a long way into winning over new subscribers when they can see your trading successes as they happen instead of weeks later.

    1. Gary Post author

      I post all my trades in real time on the premium site. That’s what people pay for. It wouldn’t be right to give it away.

  21. Alexandru Popovici

    Beeeautiful !!! πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚
    gold has just got to 1257 while silver produced an intra-day bear trap

    I am moving my buy-stop lower to 1263 to by the rest of my gold to a full position from 1268 previously.


  22. eddy1974

    I agree but GDXJ appears not to have yet completed its decline on the MA200 as GDX and gc. I think we will see a bit ‘of laterality until even the BB does not coincide with the DCL and the MA

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    I doubt it.

    Look at the intraday chart of gold πŸ™‚ it looks like a hand is placed at 1258, smart money’s hand, into which retailers are pouring their gold cheap at a measly 1258.
    poor dumb retailers!

  24. eddy1974

    For me the miners, and in particular the junior miners are more advantageous investment opportunity that will follow exponentially gold and silver

  25. eddy1974

    I’ll wait for the last 5 minutes of the market and that they are the swing low conditions of GDXJ I really think I will start to buy JNUG

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    I do not like gold’s action vs the action as expected of USX.

    Consequently, I am tightening my stop loss order for my gold position at 1255 – I bought it at 1259 so the loss would be minimum, if 1255 is touched.

    i keep the buy-stop at 1262 too, whatever is hit first: or no position at all or full position πŸ™‚

    checking out.
    nighty nighty

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Well, I certainly follow You. Your site is awesome. And thanks to You and Bob Hoye and a bit technical analysis I successfully shorted Bank of America. Now I am waiting for the next set-up.

      And I took the first small position in Energy Fuels. It looks really ripe seasonally and so on. If it goes down, well, too bad, but it’s certainly a good gamble.


    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Sorry I wrote that. That’s not worthy the SMT page. Whatever people write, You should never ridicule this stuff. I just felt the two posts above meant to cause a panic.

  27. Gary Post author

    There have been a couple of large atracks yesterday and this morning. There’s probably a good Chace the banks will try to create an undercut next week to accumulate more shares and ounces before they let gold bottom.

    But the most aggressive rallies occur coming out of yearly cycle lows.

    1. victor

      maybe they try to prevent money move into metals from stocks…thus, propping up stock market…, it’s going to continue till election, gold move higher going to be limited. imho…

    1. Gary Post author

      No guarantee. But it’s possible the banks are trying to create an undercut so they can accumulate more shares and ounces ahead of the next big move.

  28. eddy1974

    i found comment about gold a 1220 by November 15 and possible EUR/USD=1,00.
    It’s a possible scenario?

    1. Gary Post author

      We don’t know yet. If it is though then the daily cycle is past 30 days so the bottom would come next week.

  29. Alexandru Popovici

    I got stopped today both out of my gold and treasuries position with a cumulated -1% equity loss, which is fine.
    It is interesting to watch USX’ choppy performance this week.
    Looking for re-entries next week.

  30. mrtommifunn

    Ok i’m with you on the long but just one question. The COT report shows commercial contracts at well over 300,000 going short. I’m guessing here (i stress guessing) that you are expecting this number to go down for next week? Prior to the drop it was around 500,000.
    kind regards

    1. Gary Post author

      I believe the net short position is down to -220,000. That’s about the same level gold bottomed at in May.

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