EURO YEARLY CYCLE LOW
The Euro daily cycle is now on Day 16. I’m guessing the euro will print a final yearly cycle low sometime this week.
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EURO YEARLY CYCLE LOW
The Euro daily cycle is now on Day 16. I’m guessing the euro will print a final yearly cycle low sometime this week.
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Dollar – 70% bulls.
Euro – 30% bulls.
Unlikely. Nothing which tells us that pms have reached an intermediate bottom. It is better to go by the price activity gld/slv and gdx/gdxj/sil. All other considerations are secondary.
I’m in England and on Bloomberg this morning they were saying it’s only a matter of time before the Dollar goes to parity with the Euro. Ignoring charts, cycles etc, why would anyone want to buy the euro over the dollar? In the red corner you have the New Messiah, the Great White hope and in the blue corner you have a currency, union, that looks like it’s a stone throw away from throwing in the towel. Trump and the USA have all the momentum, even if it’s all a load of hot air. For what it’s worth I’m going old turkey, but I’m lucky that I got in at the start of the year and am still well up, despite a 30% pull back for me from the summer highs.
I wonder how the Italian vote is going to go on December 4? Could be a catalyst…..
You really should watch “Waiting for Godot”.
Good morning, America!
Good morning, New York!
Good morning, WALL STREET!
Please show the world the magic of hedge funds’ macro swing traders’ finger tips playing their keyboards!
Show us all the bipolar character of Lady Market’s consciousness!
Please do show us how beautiful you are: make the snow ball and just … let it roll!
It’s so nice 🙂 it’s so much fun 🙂
Dollar looks strong 100.25 now support.
Is it ?!
Macro traders have already done their job, now day traders are kicking in with their USD SHORTS 😉
It is so visible how dumb money are slaughtered ! They are fighting the trend keeping on buying USD – they resist, but they wont last 🙂
The ominous smile on macro traders’ faces is widening seeing the dumb fighting it, so they throw more of the same music on their keyboards – SHORT USD.
Smart retail swing traders are about to join the feast as new lows are charting for USD.
IT’S SO VISIBLE, SO PREDICTABLE!
Alex keep it coming. When do you think dollar will start to roll over? This week sometime?
All right … so we’ve had so far at the table:
– the macro hedge fund traders with their superior smirks,
– day traders,
– the macros again with widened smiles,
– now smart swingers are getting the first meal.
– new waves of day traders
– the shiest of the smart swingers
– the ordinary trader.
Support on the $ end up at 99.90 or lower in your opinion, Alex?
I am not going to guarantee anything, but my chart work shows we may be getting close to a bottom in the PM Complex.
The USD is potentially topping here and the PM complex appears to be bottoming into its YCL. “Time” for me looks about right on Gold’s short and long term cycles.
Also seeing divergences on the MACD along with volume patterns.
nice, clean, simple charts, Surf. And you’re not the only bull……….
Cycles are unreliable. Since September, we have seen some cycle analysts digging their heels and getting clobbered by free fall in pm sector. Cycle analysis needs to be confirmed by price activity. Divergences can persist for a while while price keeps heading south. Facts: for gdx, 50 ma down, 20 ma down, 20 ma below 50 ma, price below both. So, the trend is down as of this moment. How close we are to a low is a matter of conjecture and guesswork. We need at least sideways price action for a while so that ma’s can get into proper alignment with price, if not a lower low. Price activity in dollar, euro, yen, etc. are automatically factored into price activity of gdx. So, 2 possibilities: either sideways move for a while or a lower low after repulsion at 20/50 mas. I am comfortable with both.
If you look at my posts on GoldTent, you will see that I have been mostly Bearish on the PM Complex since late August. Their was potential for a short Consolidation ICL that Gary was looking for but it was a long shot outlier, IMO.
Since Early September, I always thought Gold was moving into its YCL and rode DUST and ZSL down into the early Oct TC Low. I also viewed the bounce out of the Oct low as being suspect.
That said, my charts show the complex is very likely forming its YCL bottom, perhaps this week or early next.
You could be right. Charts are about the past. Predictions are extrapolations from current state. Past performance does not guarantee successful future outcome. I do not rely on predictions. I trade what I see and follow almost every worthwhile pm stock, seniors and juniors. I see no evidence for your statement, not yet. Just an opinion like yours, feel free to disagree.
I don’t think that the cycles are unreliable, the problem is that many people fall into the same pitfalls using cycle analysis as they would with any other technical application, E-Wave, Fib’s, etc, etc…If you take a position and then try to curve fit the cycle’s to support that position, it will inevitably lead to problems…The ICL’s in stocks hit right on time (and I’ve seen other cycle bloggers) who also had the 11/8 date. It was clearly sitting there since the Feb lows, Brexit lows and walked forward. You can even find a decent cycle in Gold that triggered on Monday…Again, just basic analysis.
Nothing has changed in my view of the markets – all we’ve had yesterday and earlier today has been noise created by the extremely USD bullish macro reports issued yesterday.
As I was saying earlier today, European Dumb Money and the always-ever-laggard [European] mutual funds wanted to have their bit, share of the American frenzy/noise produced yesterday.
That’s been all, WE’VE HAD NOTHING SERIOUS, JUST SOME VOLATILITY UNDERSCORING MY ANALYSIS.
Thus, the same things as before:
– USX’ slight support at my old target of 99.90
– STRONG SUPPORT, THE SAME OLD NAIL HOLDING ALL MARKETS IN BALANCE THAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT, THE FIRE-STARTER, THE WALL BTW CURRENT STATUS AND THE SCORTCH TO COME: USDJPY=108.05
I am leaving my computer, nothing more worth seeing
Update on the Gold stocks oil stocks trade.
Since my call in August, GDX is down 30%
OIH is up 6%
XLE is up 5%.
So a 35% out-performance in 3 months. Remember that when you blindly accept “this all powering Gold bull will do better than every commodity it is supposed to hedge against. ”
Obviously GDX has taken a shellacking and that cannot continue indefinitely.
I still expect Oil stocks to outperform over the next 9 months but that 35% is going to be hard to beat from these levels. But another 20-25% here should be easily doable.
You could be right. One could do better in oil related etfs. Cycle analysts are still singing the same old song about pms. I do not see anything that supports their thesis.
I think it will do well at some point.
I think we are overdue for some serious inflation.
But that damn metal is so expensive compared to every other commodity that I just don’t see much of a future at these relative levels.
US dollar showing no give up in spite of disbelief. Forget gold till that changes. Suspect fed day on rate rise in december holds the key. Until then have to be prepared for another gold washout. Alex respect your views and you’ve had a hot hand. But as with Gary, only as good as your last at bat.
Equities holding water in spite of Trump lunatics taking over the asylum. Hoping for the best as current antics viewed as not plausible. Unless Trump holds back on temper in the next couple of weeks, this will end badly if for no reason but to shake up some of the lunatics into reality.
Wet noodle action in gld looks suspiciously similar to what happened in October and the ensuing free fall. Time will tell.
Looks like a marginal breakout above the Dec 2015 high in the Dollar may have put in at least a temporary top. EUR/USD and USD/JPY reversing. Today`s USD/JPY candle will be/ is outside of Bollinger Bands. Thinking there is some upside for gold here.
Yeah, some upside for gold alright. Likely, gold will inch up to 1260-1280 area, angstrom by angstrom, nanometer by nanometer, in slow motion. After that, time will tell. Until then, nimble folks can make a few bucks in stocks like aem. Just wet noodle action. I am not locked into any preconceived scenario wrt pms.
Short term is still not convincing but if Gold does not tag $1,199 by end of November…first week December…I am gonna stop positing.
Confident! Don’t stop posting though. Good insight!
I think Duck just slipped a clever double entendre past the wire.
I am guessing you mean stop posting. Nothing personal but I will take the other side of that bet. Based on the number of times you post daily its doubtful you will be able to stay away for long.
Keep in mind a broken clock is right twice a day 🙂
Yeah dude. I have only got the last 8 of my 8 calls right so the streak is bound to end. Even Kobe missed a free throw from time to time.
Alert: CVX keeps making NHs. Does it mean anything?
Hello Alex and all, dollar showing no signs of weakness to my untrained eye. We shall see indeed. Gold had the bottom fall out bounce day Monday and reasonable follow through Tuesday. So far just a bounce from severely oversold conditions. But….one of these biunces is going to stick and it could be this one. Good trading (or gambing as it may be) to all.
Soros doubled his stake in Barricks. Is this his way of saying he has no confidence in a Trump presidency or that he and the dems are going to do whatever they can to undermine the Trump presidency?
Be kind, my kids asleep, so back to my computer for one more look before sleeping.
All strength was thanks to EUR and AUD.
AUD is less relevant, it may be heralding the fall of commodities to come to YCL in JAN, so it remained only up to EUR’s weakness which should end tomorrow on ECB minutes.
As to JPY and GPB, things look bearish for USD — it is very easy to see swing high for USDJPY tomorrow and sw.low for GBPUSD!
They are just one inch away. The former may be easily accomplished through the next hours in Japanese trading itself.
Looks like all of the PMs charts will be making death crosses in the not too distant future. I know this is no better than a 50/50 indicator but the MSM will be all over it like fly on sh!t.
I have been mentioning exactly that point for two weeks now, Happy. Good to see someone else pick it up. Those crossovers are usually technical information that comes after the declines (or rise) have already taken place though. They can imply a continuation of the declines but it is not guaranteed so they are not easy to trade with unless you are really good at interpreting their meaning. If not for the fact that the crossovers were present on so many charts though I would not worry.
But they show up across the board on mining stocks, gold indexes and metals ETF’s in such a way it is hard to ignore them. The only rationale conclusion I can draw is that metals and mining stock are in for a hard winter and possibly even a poor spring for performance and returns.
I am trying to stay objective though. I “want” to believe that gold and silver are ready to reverse higher but the signs tell me otherwise. So I am divided on what to do and my best solution is to stick to short term trading in the interim and not take on any long term baggage.
Just in case the worst interpretation turns out to be the facts later on.
TLT shows strength alongside gold – they go hand in hand now.
DB swing high and budding weakness in XLE, XLF, TRAN.
GDX falls but on tiny volume and recovers through end session.
Oil and CRB are on day 2 and confirmed their new daily cycles – ripe for falling at any time now 🙂
We, gold bulls (A VERY SMALL CAMP NOW), have the bonus of bulky buying on weakness. Nice! 🙂
Thank you Alex. I’m holding the miners and mining etfs I bought Monday in the crash mode. Was tempted to bail out and sell today but have held. Gold seems very unpopular nowcwhich gives me some comfort. The big big big boy on the block is king dollar….all hail the chief. I’m watching for the turn Alex….elusive as of yet.
More important than any of this is family. Enjoy your children while they are still under your roof. Time flies. Wishing you every success Alex.
Haha very small camp now for the gold bulls. What a change from 6 months ago. Lucky there are so many lemmings in the market.
You have every right to take their money 🙂
It is interesting Palladium seems to have completely escaped the recent drop in precious metals.
Platinum looks to be bottoming.
Platinum is $278 per ounce cheaper than gold.
What to do, what to do…..
I noticed that too, both those white metals were up today. There was time when the white metals used to lead the yellow one.
It will be interesting to see how platinum behaves compared to gold/silver in the next few days. The hot money (China) might be showing a little interest in the white metals. They took copper to $2.73 which was amazing to watch since most of the fireworks occurred during the night.
Its tempting to go long the gold/copper ratio currently at 496 (long 1 gold futures/short 2 copper futures). A couple months ago ratio was setting above 640. Let there be no doubt this is a risky venture.
Alex…Lady market’s sardonic smile widens just a bit. Watching your fabled usdjpy linchpin closely. The market structure creaks and groans. If the dollar corrects downward from here you will have made a great call.
It seems like the metals really want o make a bounce here, have no idea how big or little of a bounce, but the USD is like 1000 lb. anchor around it’s neck. The dollar may be a crowded trade right now but that doesn’t mean it can’t go higher.
BEKIND, yes, family top everything! I am amazed to see so many fellow young chaps procrastrinating marriage, preferring the unresponsible easiness of bachelory, thinking they have the time instead of doing the most rewarding deed of all: setting up a family.
You’ve probably already noticed: SWING HIGH OF USDJPY !
JPY has given the start in bringing USD down 🙂
Yesterday showed complete exhaustion, stupid money discarding their currencies for USD in the wake of the established trend (the recency Chris was talking about) and the 3 magnificent macro US reports on Tuesday.
Smart money made the trick yesterday with JPY but the stupid dumping their EURos were to many, IT WAS A SELLING CLIMAX, and the smart guys just let the stupid feel smart to be able to buy euros cheaper.
Puzzle pieces are coming together bit by bit 🙂
… Since stupidity has a proclivity to be inertial, I expect lower lows first in EURUSD and GBPUSD today in the initial reactions of ECB minutes, before reverting, so that we will see their swing lows tomorrow.
But GOLD and T-bonds will smell the opportunity and will charge together hand in hand delivering us follow throughs TODAY.
Now, in the wake of last two days’ events I SEE SOMETHING NEW, TO BAFFLE ALL.
This is day 1 of the USX intermediary cycle decline and ICL will be set in January too – as stocks and industrial commodities and CRB will bottom too.
We are going to have a downward zig-zag:
– USX down through jobs reports –> the current DC will prove left translated
– USX up in a new daily cycle through FOMC –> DOLLAR EXAUSTION ON THE UNAVOIDABLE RATE HIKE BUT WE WILL HAVE A LOWER HIGH (the high was yesterday folks 🙂 )
– down again through JAN.
SO MUCH BULLISHNESS SET THE TEMPORARY HIGH OF USX AT 100.60 yesterday 🙂 uuuuhaaa
The Incoming FED hike in DEC will rise USX to this level, 97 is closer to us than 100.7
Error correction : hike in DEC will NOT rise USX back to this level.
I will bet everyone here has heard of the legendary bush Trackers of Australia.
These unique people were the aboriginal hunter-gatherers of the Outback who had an uncanny ability to find people, animals, water and lost objects in the wilds of the bush country using little more than their own intuition and abilities to make keen observations of minute changes in the natural environment.
You may have thought the stories about their abilities was part truth and mostly myth but such people really did exist. Where they excelled was in being able to distinguish between old tracks and fresh tracks and to understand the direction their quarry had taken and thus where it would ultimately rest and be found.
It was remarked that they could tell the difference between the footprints of a pregnant ruminant versus one that was not and to even know the speed it was traveling based on the depth of its hoof marks and the spacing of the gait.
Small broken twigs, blood droplets, hairs or cloth left behind on branches and resting spots were kinds of small evidence the Trackers used to visualize where an animal (or human) had been, its condition and where it was going.
The European Settlers who first encountered these people were understandably impressed by the exceptional ability of the native Trackers to find lost children who had wandered off into the outback and might otherwise have perished if not for the trackers ability to interpret small insignificant appearing signs of change and turn that information from a cold trail into a hot one.
I don’t think that ability is unique to Australian Aborigines though.
We see exactly that same kind of skill demonstrated by people who look into the daily jungle of tangled information on stock markets and extract useful clues from the random bits of inconsistent data that tells them something unusual is taking place. Something that is unseen by most ordinary people.
Modern technical analysts are not so different than the Trackers of the Outback who could pick up the scent of a wounded animal and locate it alive after many days of running it down. If anything their job is even more complex because it involves not broken twigs and small impressions in the sand at the edge of a stream but rather mathematical patterns and data that is incoherent to the casual observer.
So I cannot help but compliment some of you guys who have the ability to understand what is happening to the markets based on a few pips movement in the dollar! Only time will tell if your assessments are correct. If they are then you surely deserve a shout out and some kind of award.
There are other times though when the signs are not so subtle. Instead of small branches, shadows and scraps of evidence on grassy plains guiding our decisions we are instead confronted with the equivalent of an elephant herd having crashed through the forest.
We had just such an instance that occurred on election night when a dozens of asset classes spiked violently and left us with massive reversal patterns that are still being digested by the market. Gold abruptly shot up 70 dollars for example only to crash back to Earth more than 120 bucks peak to trough.
Likewise with the US Dollar, Euro and Swiss Franc. We saw huge overnight moves that established very unusual reversals of trend. And so too with US, European and Japanese stock indices plus a host of commodities from copper to cotton, gasoline to soy. Naturally the VIX went stupid in the ensuing action and left an imprint that its next major direction would be to new all time lows.
My impression was that the algorithms that determine the fate of so many of our markets were all reset that night. Since the Ninth of November gold is closing in the red six out of seven days while the dollar is up for seven straight in a row. The Russell has launched more than a hundred points higher and Yen has broken below key supports.
What does it all mean? Well that is a question the best technical sniffing hounds in the room might try to answer.
I think though that something very fundamental has changed that could alter the entire course of the markets for the next year and its implications may be much more serious than first meet the eye. Perhaps what we saw on election night was not some anomalous reaction to a Trump victory but rather a complete change in sentiment that will now impact all the major trends going forward.
This may then be a time to reassess our most basic beliefs. Is gold really in a new bull market for example? Perhaps not based on the tree marks that got left behind on election night. Is the sudden dollar rise about to cause another round of sharp deflation around the the globe and take us to yet unimaginable lows?
I won’t even attempt to answer my own question tonight. But some of you other market trackers might have already picked up the trail. It does look like the winds of change are written on the charts though and we might reconsider some long held beliefs.
Because if they are wrong it could end up being very, very costly.
I applaud you, Ped! Interesting comparison and wonderful writing style!
Ped, I personally think Trump’s victory has not changed markets’ avenue, there were some jitters on his victory, Markets’ wheels rising off the tracks for a while, but Markets’ “train” got its wheels back on its tracks.
The only things which I think will impact markets are two:
1) likely more accelerated FED rate hikes to oppose Trump (Establishment’s reaction against the outsider/virus),
2) exhaustion of US Govt’s resources, accelerating public debt to finance tax reductions and govt spending – US debt may increase by +25% during his 4-year mandate, hence much higher yields, rising interest rates and surging USD in the future than otherwise, than if Hillary.
But that’s all, in my opinion.
PS: USX today at 100.69 – a sexy peak pick 🙂
I have to revert with a small tweak to my prior analysis on USX.
Actually it is more likely that we will see the ICH today, a tiny break above 100.60 set yesterday, in the wake of the stupidity to sell euros to come as an immediate reaction to ECB minutes, as I was replying to BEKIND above. Thus day 1 of the IC decline may be tomorrow not today.
But that’s of lower relevance, just a tiny tweak.
Going to see my girl to the kinder garden.
USX higher at 100.69 today should render it like a rising rocket exhausting its last vapors of kerosene, consolidate USD bulls into complacency and making them feel ultra-smart –> exactly what requires a 7-week correction 🙂
The 2nd advantage of USX rising to 100.69 today on euro & GBP selling mania would be that FINALLY GARY WOULD HAVE TO STOP WRITING ABOUT THE USD SECULAR BEAR!
Alex, so after this bounce, where do you see gold going? Given USD is going to rally further after this correction
Good morning, Chris!
As I said, I see gold going up but in boring, tedious, annoying (I’m running out of words to describe it) range-bounds, just like Ilinca, my girl, draws the sky with up and down movements of her pencil while slowly rising her whole arm on the sheet of paper.
All that till spring (Jan-March/April = a most tedious goldish Q1) when USX should fall in its yearly cycle low –> the intermediary cycle of USX to start in JAN should also be the last IC in the current YC.
….the rise of interest rates slightly above expectations off the January lower high of treasuries (SHY/IEF/TLT/$USB) due to the 2 reasons I explained to Pedestrian above (Trump-induced changes to markets) should have a magic effect: ALLOW USD AND GOLD TO CORRELATE POSITIVELY MORE OFTEN THAN RARE.
Since I just mentioned “the rise of interest rates slightly above expectations off the January […]”, I feel obliged to repeat my advice to all those of you having mortgage loans: USE THIS SHORT PERIOD OF RISING TREASURIES TILL JANUARY TO CONTRACT INTEREST RATE SWAPS WITH YOUR BANKS AT STILL TINY FIXED INTEREST to hedge against what lies ahead!
The dollar shortage may be going critical. I brought this up the other day with a simple fundamental analysis. Things that are in shortage tend to rise in value as demand increases. We are indeed seeing this happen as a pivot to dollars and out of Euro, Yuan and minor currencies has seen a sharp rise in the dollars value over the past 7 months. The narrative that the Euro is about to spike higher may just be a technical fantasy. Gary, I again urge you to reconsider your position on this subject.
Ped, 100% agree w/ you
It’s good to see crude oil up, yet, it is below yesterday’s high –> it is a very safe day-trading bet on LONG OIL through Asian trading tomorrow when it should top on day 4 of its daily cycle alongside CRB index, after which a swing trading strategy would imply going short.
The OPEC thing, just like the announcement of Trump’s win, will only bring in some volatility, will allow oil to set its HCL and CRB its next DCL but will not change the underlying South route through JAN.
Likewise, USX to see its way towards 99.90 in the next hour or so before blasting towards 100.69 –> that will render USD bulls ultra-confident saying “USX has a fantastic support at 99.90 – I have a safe long USD positions! I am so happy! Easy money.”
Except that …. I was there too, I know what it is like being the Stupid’s Money Camp – I was thrice.
At the open, I will close my SPXU position to replace it with FAZ immediately and, later at the end of the session (when oil gets close to $47), I will buy ERY so that I will have a binary short-stocks position (both cumulated no more than 25% of equity).
I am closing my computer.
Watch USX going to 99.9 and then to 100.69; by the time I’ll be back at my desktop all these movements will have been made 😉
Alexandru, like I keep saying there is no market correction coming and now I see you are closing your spxu position. Do you now agree that there is no market correction coming unlike what you initially thought?
If I’ve been following along correctly, Alex revised his market correction to January some time back. It’s difficult to follow along sometimes with the format of these blog comments though (verses a traditional forum), i will admit.
Dude, before u ask a question, read carefully and check. Alex said replace. Go first check out what FAZ is before asking a stupiddd question.
Yellen speaking later today is probably also going to have an impact on Gold and FX.
chrisG what is your point? He closed his spx short. FAZ is bearish on financials so your reply makes no sense and my question is valid.
chrisG what is your point? He closed his spx short. FAZ is bearish on financials so your reply makes no sense and my question is valid.
Since when do you see financial dropping meaningfully and spx not dropping? Obviously he see market still correcting. Only that he views financial plunge would be more than market.
Just for funsies……anyone remember the time Gary pointed out the $ would crash because of QE?
USD now up 20% since QE1 was launched.
I’m new here. Enjoy reading your insight. Apologises if I am asking something you have already covered. In short I am a new trader who got totally smashed recently following JNUG. May I ask you what would you do in the market right now?. Also, how would you play the gold market? Thanks
The mantra of every gold bug.
The Fed cannot raise interest rates without crashing the economy…. Proven wrong and will be wrong again.
The Fed will print so much during next recession…. Which is imminent……. That one is being blown out with every employment report. The next one in my opinion will be particularly delicious.
It is when every gold bug sells out to people who will see serious wage inflation coming… Due to an extremely strong economy… Will gold bottom.
It’s so nice! So obvious!
Study of bipolar disorder is so useful! It’s better than all mathematical sentiment tools added together.
All right. So, we’ve had USX at 99.99 and now reverting after an push.
THE THRUST IS COMING! –> Eurusd now back above 1.07 is just a respite.
Laggard pension funds, mutual funds and dumb retailers have not had enough –> we need to see GBPUSD below 1.2350 and EURUSD at some 1.0600 before all this stupidity is over TODAY, to let the rocket w/ an empty fuel tank.
I’ll not enter the blog today. I’ll be in a hurry for the rest of the day.
I see a break of 1.06 as the final level for the bottom in the Euro…but I doubt it happens today.
Rock N Roll time Alex. Let’s see if the US dollar emperor is wearing clothes. 3rd time up in this range over last year.
Gold and miners holding up reasonably boringly well for now. Staying long precious metals from Monday but with sizeable cash and caution with eyes open deciphering track marks and broken twigs Ped!
And watch out for the blood droplets!
Especially if there are angry gold bugs in the vicinity.
well Alex the moment of truth. Suppose to have equity collapse and gold soar. So far much the opposite. All seems to be hinged on the US dollar peaking any second now.
I believe the market keeps chugging up thru sector rotation probably 2200 plus before any serious setback. If in fact the dollar has a pullback and gold does not react to upside then watch out as the relevance isn’t there and gold is simply not the place to be, irresptive of what perennial gold bugs believe. The majority of which exist on this site.
that’s exactly the point, Jon 🙂 USX goes higher in a fresh new multi-year cycle and gold…as you have just said…resists.
That strength, that’s the place to be: GOLD.
I saw that ABOMINOUS strength & buying on weakness through all Monday selloff –> THAT’S WHAT MADE ME BUY IT THEN AND CALL THE YCL
The most important thing is that we’ve just received the confirmation that a multi-year cycle low was set in May since USX has just broken above the prior YCH of 100.60 on DEC 3.
Now not even Gary cannot claim the USD bear.
Range-bounded movement is great –> it indicates a major b/o will be due in March after the ICL in JAN.
Then USX will return to the b/o pivot during its YC decline in the next summer 😉
Anybody there still claiming YCLs in gold/miners & T-bonds did not come on Monday ?!! 🙂
We have selling on strength in offensive stocks, a little bit in UUP too, but none in miners 😉
…by the way, BeKind, when USX b/o its multi-annual range in March, as I just said, then we will have the next ICL in gold 😉
Sorry, what do you mean by b/o? What is a b/o?
OK. I should have thought of that.
sounds like a plan Alex. I agree that gold holding while dollar making multi day highs is a positive for gold. I’m looking to see what happens to gold when dollar has it’s inevitable pullback. If it doesn’t respond with some force it may be time to reconsider.
I gather you’re not looking for a equity pullback in here having changed your view till sometime later. Is that correct
I agree on your former assertion.
I do not get where you and Brian have come to the conclusion that I have changed my mind on an equity pullback ??
Quite the contrary, as Chris also heeded Brian, I am long FAZ and standing ready to go long ERY ….these are not implying anything long stocks !!!!!
Quite the contrary, I am very optimistic about a considerable pullback coming so that I’ve swapped a slow moving short bet SPXU with Ferraris of stock shorting.
Alexandru, you had no idea that DOW and IWM would see all time highs here recently so your prediction of a market correction shortly holds no weight. You have no idea what the market will be doing and when. If you did you would have told everyone DOW would see all time highs last week.
DOW is irrelevant – it is a small breadth market indicator.
I look at NYSE Composite. DOW is over-rated, it’s an anachronism.
Got to disagree with you there. The DOW is mostly institutional and pension fund buyers so it is more than relevant.
come on brian, so far equity rally only approaching former highs, more hype than reality. I think the truth will be known very soon and I suspect a pop over 2200 should be an excellent hook for the bulls.
JPY preserves its swing high, just as I had anticipated in my reply to BeKind last evening (before the swing high occurred later in Japanese trading itself).
GBP shows incredible resilience even though I would have been happier to see it breaking below the low set at 1.2375 a couple of days ago.
no offense meant Alex. I’m just more skeptical in here that things will evolve that quickly.
Lot of hope out there which is being flamed by wall streeter friends of Trump who will keep the hype going. Eventually will be exposed but will take a little more time.
Alexandu my point is you have no idea where the market is going. S+P will likely see all time highs soon and you had no idea that was coming either. Why could you not see IWM all time highs if you have such tremendous ability to predict the market?
Indeed, I did not, but it makes me happy to see RUT, XLF, TRAN breaking out because that underscores the bull in stocks beyond the transient pullback to come.
Ped, I regard pension funds and mutual funds as laggard institutions, tied up by strong regulations.
It is hedge funds and smart money retailers that lead markets, in my opinion at least.
No problems. The Hedge funds are notoriously wrong lately though. Its why so many have closed their doors, folded up or gone bust. Even the survivors are posting horrid results. On the other hand, when the Dow breaks to new highs that does tell me something I need to know because it reflects sentiment among the large buyers. And those guys really do move markets by volume.
USX HAS TOUCHED FIRE –> the 100.69 level I was mentioning 🙂 , and retreats for now.
GBP and JPY show great relative strength.
We will see if this is just a soft fire for USX or the wall of fire to pull back away from altogether, the very ICH 😉
Leaving again from my comp.
Dust powering up.
DUST looks pretty good to me Ras. And JDST too. I am leaning to the idea miners are on the verge of taking a dive within the next few weeks and the inverse trades taking center stage. Dollar is waaayyyy too strong and still climbing. On day nine now so a lot of disappointment is in store for the bugs. Beleive it or not I am still clinging to my short trades. They just look to have a lot more upside yet and I cannot resist.
dollar rally having effect on gold. if it doesn’t turn down soon gold will crater again below 1200.
Yessir! I think you have got that spot on Jonsyl.
My financial calendar shows that tomorrow is USD OpEx day.
So the question is: What usually happens on USD OpEx days?
too much happy talk with equity market right now. can last longer than most suspect. need a violent reversal to make Alex correct. Possible but not likely
Gold does not do well in a happy equity environment. A close below recent lows today or tomorrow will cause a rush out of gold miners.
So yet again the dollr suprises. Rate decison not till December…
Gold decline was just paused. Catching up with runaway dollar.
Gary any views in here.
Unfortunately Gary doesn’t post much when he has been proven wrong. The strong dollar has caught many by surprise. Wonder how bad the damage to PMs will be. Is this a new bear market? Is this a continuation of the old bear market that never ended? Or is this still just a correction in a bull market? Enquiring minds want to know.
Happycamper, until gold breaks out above the long term falling trend line from 2011 it remains a bear market. All we have until now is a bear market rally although that will change once we exceed 1380 something (can’t recall the exact number now). For simplification though we need to get above 1400 dollars on a weekly closing basis and stay there for at least a few days.
I think it’s a safe bet that gold delivers an undercut low soon. But it’s very late in the daily cycle so I would be a buyer of the undercut not a seller.
There goes resistance on the long term monthly dollar chart at 100.5, next 102.5, 104.5, above that not much until 120.
Really unusual but SLV is on the top half of the BOW list. Silver has been a POS forever and has to be the most manipulated on the planet.
You guys and all your acronyms. At least I know what POS means!!!
Gold @ 1216 –> took the loss from 1226
I WAS WRONG thinking that the 99.90 pivot would hold, so that I have taken the loss as long as the original thinking did not hold and as long as the loss is minimal.
USX tops as soon as GBPUSD breaks below the low 1.2378 set earlier this week.
GBP bottoming in its current DC is key –> I was having doubts earlier about GBP not breaking lower with EUR….that was the signal to me that something was wrong.
Then the final conviction I was wrong calling gold=1211 YCL came as USX broke above 100.72 – the former multi-year high —> UNTIL GBPUSD GET BELOW 1.2378 GOLD STILL HAS PLENTY OF ROOM TO FALL.
Next stop $1180, admittedly I was a day late.
Alexandru, you are wrong on many things but you talk like you know it all.
Brian, as Richard Baruch said one can raise wealth by getting it right on 3 out of 10 times, all that matters is to keep losses small on the wrong trades, and it works for me 🙂
best to retool in here. Gold did a complete roundtrip in here. Gold bugs get hammer again and again. This dollar rally quite the sight.
For nimble folks, trading the dust/nugt pair can be helpful in relieving boredom. Cheers.
Yuppers. Happy days are here.
Harry Dent has been calling the dollar rally for a number of years. Sure hes also been saying stocks are due for a cataclysm, will that play out?. He stated the recent strength in gold was simply a bear rally and that his long term target(low) is $700. Over the last couple of weeks that theory is certainly starting to look more validated.
What Harry has not considered though is that a huge dollar means a massive euro devaluation and a euro devaluation is going to boost gold up in concert with a rising dollar. There is enough buying power in Europe to generate a genuine physical shortage of gold if minds turn that way as the euro tanks.
This makes me revert to the original anticipated YCL of 1182 for gold.
Keeping my eye on GBPUSD – a lower low
pm stock rally is not done yet. Just short term pull back to repair ST OB condition. For nimble traders, after enough pull back, aem and nem could be productive longs, strictly short term. No long term positions in pms and I am staying away from nugt / jnug (risk of reverse split). My new trading pair for now is dust/aem or nem, pair.
I do not trade Fx and I do not have time to monitor currencies intraday. I rely mostly on the price activity of the etf or stock itself. Kudos to all the talented folks on this board with expertise in price movement of usd,euro,yen,etc. Cheers.
agreed on all things – I do not trade FX either, they are excellent for clues though
So tell me wise one Alexandru, will gold ever see even 1300 again?
Come on Alexandru, one needs to be realistic as gold is now in a bear market. I am guessing it will be years if not longer to see gold at 1300. When do you think it sees 1300 and why?
gold=1300 as early as next month.
because USX has to cool before moving higher.
Gary pay up.
USD/JPY just hit 110 on my quotes.
BU RRI TO
BU RRI TO
BU RRI TO
I want one too. Is FEDEX how Gary pays up?
I was hoping he would send a gift card.
I mean the man claims to be a multi-millionaire based on his cycle trading…..the least he can do is honor a Burrito bet.
A gift card for two bucks?!!!
No way Jose’. When I win a Burrito I want to know Gary actually bought it, took it home, gift wrapped it and personally sent it overnight courier so I can nail the damned thing to my wall.
It just isn’t worth it otherwise.
I was hoping for one of these
With a $10 Gift card.
Mmmmmm. Those look pretty good.
OK, I am in for the gift card Burrito too.
As soon as I make a bet of course.
So far Gary and I have not done a challenge.
Alex 1211 is holding so you think it might test 1180 for gold. USDJPY hit 110 almost. What does your analysis show?
Dave, gold has just got below 1211 to 1210.5 so that now it is offical that I was wrong on Monday relying on the USX pivot of 99.90 not to be broken decisevely from the first try.
On Monday there was heavy strength in gold but it is not enough – once 99.90 in USX was decisevely broken, gold needs onemore leg down – a waterfall UNTIL GBPUSD GETS BELOW 1.2378.
So my eyes are on GBPUSD now
Thus far gold has held 1211 and trading at 1214. If if closes above 1211, will you re-think your opinion that the low was indeed 1211 and is not going to 1182? Always appreciate your comments.
If Yen is your guide then gold is SCREWED. Silver too and all the PM’s space.
This does look like a set up for tomorrow (Friday) though. Maybe a little bounce in gold to whet the appetite? Just enough to get the bugs buying into the weekend and then BLAMMO the rug is going to get pulled out from under your feet again next week.
I mean we are in the 9th or 10th day of declines on Yen and Swissy and Euro already and that is really, really negative for metals if it does not turn around. With the dollar getting to be so relentless in its predictable rise this could really stretch out the cycle counts. That is easily possible too.
Remember when crude was crashing for all of 2014 and posted maybe two green weeks out of 52? And it was overwhelmingly bearish sentiment all the way down and that did not matter one bit because it just kept falling and falling until some guys went broke.
That’s what the dollar is about to do on its way higher.
On the plus side, Yen and Nikkei are both posting outside reversals today so it looks like a bounce back is in store for gold. I may just have to bail out and change sides for a few days depending on how things looks as the day gets nearer the end.
well done, Duck ! you will see the sub-1200 for gold indeed.
Thanks! $1,199 seems like magnet to me.
but longer term bottom seems more likely for Q1 to me.
And more like $1,140 ish.
This is exactly what happens at every bottom and it’s why no one is ever able to buy ICL’s. No matter how low price goes it always looks like it could go lower. So targets get contnually lowered as price drops.
Lol Gary. I have to admit, that is some arrogance after having called it wrong for so long.
If you recall, I did buy and sell SLW and GDX and made a nice profit.
If you recall, I did short GDX and Gold and made a superb profit.
If you recall, I did tell you will get USD-JPY at 110 in spite of your cycles telling you to buy the YEN at 9% higher prices.
If you recall, I said it would be really stupid to hold GDX vs Energy three months back, you did anyway, and I came out ahead by 35%.
That said….I will be buying before the $1,140 because I am not 100% sure it gets there. Just that the COT report looks like crap and I would like that to improve before jumping on. Now pay up the damn Burrito 🙂
So Alexandru when does gold see $1300?
Answered you: next month
suspect a pullback on equities tomorrow into Monday. Depending how violent the reversal may show if recent happy talk takes a more serious pause. this should coincide with dollar weakness and some stability for gold.
still believe we will hit marginally above 2200 spx before any serious correction. Too much happy momentum for that not to happen. Trump wall street types will ensure talking the market up as a report card on his economic savy.
Come on Gary, is not so complicated. Your scenario was based on weak dollar collapsing plusEuroup up … and it looks the opposite. Plus higher interest and so on. So oil, gold .. are in trouble. Of course there will be good rebounds… but I think they are in trouble for some time or years. Pls redial, reconnect with market and go back to work 🙂 Shit happens and thats no news in this business…. rgds and good luck to all
.. and I dont even want to talk about miners. I have several companies. As an example, I bought one HMY around 0,60, and sold them at top, near 4,85. Now am waiting to re-buy below 2. The same with others SSRI, GFI, KGC… so… if I detected correctly those tops … and will re-buy them nxt coming days.. how GOLD could continue go up ???
Maybe this is just another washout day? How many people actually think gold is going up from here? Aside from Gary, zero. Gary is right in one respect, nobody is buying if this is an ICL.
Not just Gary. I am thinking seriously of taking a flyer on NUGT depending on how things progress. Its not all doom and gloom and of course, nothing goes down forever. Even in a bear market there are rallies. I would not be a buy and hold guy though because bigger picture gold looks like shit.
.. and finally OIL.. I think will buy soon at 36 for good rebound and if I am not wrong at 30 (next year), which would be the bottom ???
Gary ? Where is Gary ? How come I dont see yr daily reports ????
Pedestrian, I agree w/ you. It is precisely because of the risk u mention that I take losses immediately as soon as I see a dramatic change, as it was now the break of the 99.90 pivot as soon as USX went above 100.72.
Now, to get long gold again I will look for
– swing low GBPUSD
– saw.low gold or GDX
For a trade to be good with great potential it needs to be scary I am buying precious stocks here !
Great analysis from Gann Global Financial:
It looks like I am finished now. Was a just a dead cat bounce. GL to you all im done now
Alexandru if you think gold sees 1300 next month I want whatever it is you are smoking.
Gary this is clearly a bear market in gold and miners there is no end to this drop.
Gary the problem is you never expected gold to fall this low so your saying this is an ICL here does not mean munch because you were wrong for many months now on gold and miners. Just saying.
From a technical point of view, the US$ index tested the 100 level in early 2015 on high volume.
What indicators do you use to confirm this test lacks technical strength and will be top for US$?
Do you we have similarities with 2002 in terms of cycles as we had a triple top and bottoming of gold then too.