100 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – GOLD:OIL RATIO

  1. Pedestrian

    Gary, gold already completed its bubble back in 2011. What are you talking about i this post. It makes no sense to whatsoever. We have still never broken out of the falling bear channel in the past 5 years but you are talking about a bubble before we have even officially entered a bull market!!!!

    1. GMoney

      Pedestrian: Gary has made some great calls over the years. You can’t hold a candle to Gary’s record. Seems like all you want to do is insult Gary.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        He has like this one.
        https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2012/12
        On the plus side the rally out of a yearly cycle low tends to be the most powerful rally of the year. In this case if we were to get one more marginal new low to say around $1630 in the next couple of weeks that should be the end of the selling and I think gold will easily test the $1900 level during its next intermediate cycle.
        That was dazzling.

        Or this one.
        https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2013/04/dollar-collapse-has-begun.html

        I’ve been pointing out for several months now that the recent rally in the dollar was a mirage, an illusion generated by the yen, euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all dropping into yearly, or intermediate cycle lows together. This selling pressure in the four major currencies that make up the dollar index spawned what looked like a strong dollar.

        With Bernanke printing 85 billion of them a month, there is no such thing as a “strong dollar”. I’ve been saying for months that once these four currencies completed their bottoming cluster it would be the dollar’s turn to crash. The recent collapse in the yen was 23%. The Pound 9%. I think the dollar will be somewhere in between with a loss of 9-12% as it drops down into it’s yearly cycle low.

        1. GMoney

          You expect Gary to 100% correct all of the time? He is correct far more times than incorrect. I can post numerous examples of Gary’s accurate calls.

          1. duckwhorocks1

            Gary is right at best 50% of the times.
            Like flipping a coin.
            However, we never (or very rarely) hear him ever saying he is wrong.
            Go through 2011-2015 archives. See how many Gold bottoms he called.

  2. Steffmeister

    Pedestrian, I am familiar with Armstrong and his cycles and turns related to PI. I made 25k last year thanks to the movie The Forecaster. I counted 3140days from a date mentioned in the film and ended up at Aug/Sep 2015. 24th Aug 2015 there was a huge drop in Spx. I shorted Spx with a leverage of x15. The funny thing is Armstrong backed away from his call about a crash and moved it into the future.

    Back to Gold, there are other mathematical relations in Gold than PI. I guess you are familiar with fractals, there is a fractal present in the Gold-chart telling a very different story than yours.

      1. Steffmeister

        Sorry pedestrian I am not allowed to, that is our edge against other traders. If the fractal gets commonly know it will most certainly break and we do not want that.

        1. Pedestrian

          Nonsense. There is no other chart. You are just making stuff up now in response to my prior post. And the comment that you made 25K based on a Pi date derived from the release of a movie is preposterous. What possible relationship could there be between a movie date and stock markets.

          See, this is why I cannot respect gold bugs. Most of you guys are irrational.

          1. Steffmeister

            You argue as a child, you are not bright enough to comprehend what I am writing, so frustrating 🙁

    1. GMoney

      Steffmeister: I’ve studied Armstrong also and he has made some good calls, but his track record is littered with many blown calls. He predicted the DOW would end 2015 at 27,000 and said oil would stay around $100 for as far as the eye can see.

      1. Steffmeister

        There is a date mentioned in the movie “THE FORECASTER” it’s a documentary about Mr Armstrong and I counted the days according to PI times ten and voila I ended up at aug/sep 2015, the crash was 24th of August 2015, please explain it for Pedo!

    1. Pedestrian

      Clueless? It is very curious how you can say that after I pointed out a near perfect Pi date between the two most significant gold tops of the past 100 years and yet you still can’t see the significance of the relationship? Secondly, nobody, not even Armstrong has published that observation before. You read it here first because it was based on my own charting. It should be obvious to any casual reader who is the clueless one here.

      1. Steffmeister

        Yes clueless and thick too. Watch the movie, in it one of his friends mention a date (late februari if I remember it correctly) add 3140days to that specific date and you end up at aug/sep 2015 the crash was 24th and yes I made approx 25k dollars in Swedish SEK.

        1. mike trike

          Here you go Steff.
          At around 1 hour 11 minute mark in The Forecaster some guy says
          “Feb 24, 2007 is the next pi cycle date, it happens every 8.6 years”

          I put 8.6 years in a date calculater and it comes to around end of September 2015

          1. Steffmeister

            I ended up at month shift, however these cycles is not that exact. Good work there mike trike, you are the man 🙂

    2. duckwhorocks1

      I think he is one of the few people who is trading rationally and not falling in love with the metal.
      Calling someone who has been on the right side of the trade for the last 3 months as Clueless really makes no sense.
      What would you call Gary who has been on the wrong side of the USD bull market for 3-5 months now?

        1. duckwhorocks1

          Yeah he has called for about 5 years now…on and off…about the impending collapse of the dollar.
          Eventually he will get his 20% decline…although it may start at a point 50% higher than when he first started calling for it….but he will get his 20% decline and he will take his victory lap.

  3. Frederic Degembe

    It all depends on cycles, if we use the 25-30 year cycle in gold, by observing the tops in 1980 and 2011, a new top would arrive in 2040, not sooner!

    It makes sense as the long term cycles that peaked in 2011 are still reversing lower, so the power to a large spike is not there.

    Of course if we use 40 year cycle and see 2011 not as a top as the public participation was rather low, although from my observation a lot of friends of mine spoke about gold, although it was not a mania. Then maybe 2020 could be next top.

    It remains to be seen what could be the trigger, I doubt it can happen so soon after the 2011 top, unless the 2011 was just an interim top.

    1. Pedestrian

      Exactly Frederic. The odds of a second parabolic blow off peak anytime soon for gold and silver is about as likely as a Martian invasion. And yet these intellectually deficient gold bugs along with the ringleaders in the gold promoter community want to regale us with the most stupid arguments for why gold is not only in an existing bull market but one that will deliver untold profits in just the next few years as metals miraculously soar to the heavens again.

      I could cry if it were not so stupid.

      Instead I just laugh my ass off. Mostly because they believe their own fairy tales and don’t do any research to back the claims let alone learn how to read the most basic of chart patterns. What they need though is to convince another generation of greater fools to buy the overpriced metals off them so they can recover all the losses.

      Every gold bug has an agenda.
      Every gold promoter has an agenda
      Every marketer selling metals has an agenda
      Every mine executive has an agenda
      Every guy pushing metals investments and trying to fill ballrooms with buyers & companies has an agenda
      And now we know that most public bloggers have an agenda too.
      Liars to the core. I don’t care to hear a word from any one of them since it is all dishonesty.

      1. Gary Post author

        2011 wasn’t even close to a parabolic top IMO. Gold was barely stretched 40% above the 200 DMA. Virtually none of the public knew anything about gold. Silver didn’t even make a higher high.

        At a bubble top I expect gold to be at least 100% above the 200 DMA. Miners maybe 200% above. Everyone and their cousin should be buying gold. The people next to you at the restaurant should be talking about gold. Silver should breakout above the 1980 high and at least double and preferably quadruple or more above $50. Penny stock mining companies with no chance of ever pulling any gold out of the ground should be doubling in days.

        These are the kind of behaviors we saw during the tech bubble, and the housing bubble. We have yet to see it in metals.

        Folks there has to be consequences to printing trillions and trillions of currency units. This is the way the world works. The piper always ends up being paid.

        1. ltr

          Mr. Gary, even a blind pig finds a truffle now and then. You have been calling the bull market when GDX was 32$ and your statement about it is the bull market, does it matter where you buy is a reckless statement. Man you just cannot survive if you guess and blame on manipulations. Be more responsible.

        2. TraderPete

          For silver, a good rule of thumb is: you take the price that occurred on 12/15/15 ( a major low), which was 13.62 and multiply it by about 13 ( a fib number), and you get approx. 177. However, I suspect it will go much higher than that at the end of the bubble phase. And the GSR should get down to at least 16 or maybe even 9 or lower because of all the quadrillions of dollars in global debt, unfunded liabilities, and derivatives.

      1. Steffmeister

        Yes, according to my mentor there are two scenarios.

        1. Inflation: Massive moneyprinting, great inflation instead of deflation. This is the preferred scenario. Time is money. This is also Gary’s choice. The beautiful fractal in Gold will fail.

        2. Deflation: No more moneyprinting, a deflationary crash followed by extreme moneyprinting. This is the scenario Mike Maloney is talking about.

        I do not think the decision has been made yet.

      1. ltr

        You must be a fool believing that sponsor ad on the main yahoo page about gold heading to 5000. Gee, I thought you are better than novice traders.

  4. Emptyness

    I like reading the Smart Money Tracker, although I’m not good in reading, speaking and writing englisch / american. But I have to write now because:

    a) Gary is doing such a good job here and I want to thank you for this generous website, Gary !

    b) Yes, Gary isn’t such a perfect clairvoyant as the great PEDESTRIA, who knows everything about Gold and all the secrets of life – Pedestrian, if you don’t like what Gary is writing, then please go away, bye bye ! You don’t know anything about Gold – and yes I’m a gold bug and I’m not stupid at all :-))

    c) Maybe the cycles can help you sometimes, but more psychologically than really – because nobody and nothing is able to predict the future – and I’m so happy about it – that’s why I only look at the fundamentals (bond bubble, debt all over, falling real rates in 2017, big EU crisis in 2017, big US crisis in 2017 because of Trump and his promises etc…) , and they are extremly positiv for gold !

    1. Pedestrian

      Emptyness, you may have a reading disability and I can accept that. But I never said a single word to Gary who I happen to like a lot. My comments were all addressed to one of the gold retards who posts by the name Steffmeister..

    2. jskauai

      -FDR defaulted on gold as money to the people of the US. He lied to them saying this was a temporary crisis and the government needed their gold to save the system.
      -Nixon defaulted to the international community on gold telling them that they would no long issue gold at $35/ ounce of gold. He lied to the world and said it was because of speculators.
      -Now we have 20 trillion in US debt and growing exponentially. It is mathematically impossible to pay off. So will the results be similar to the past monetary problems? Will default be the solution? Trump has stated that he may want to renegotiate the debt. How would that work?

      1. jskauai

        “I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me,” Trump told Norah O’Donnell in an interview that aired on “CBS This Morning.” “I’ve made a fortune by using debt, and if things don’t work out I renegotiate the debt. I mean, that’s a smart thing, not a stupid thing.” “How do you renegotiate the debt?” O’Donnell followed up. “You go back and you say, hey guess what, the economy crashed,” Trump replied. “I’m going to give you back half.”
        http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/global-epocalypse-inevitable/

  5. duckwhorocks1

    Here is what happened in the last Gold Bull bubble….hint…it is not what Gary said.
    http://www.safehaven.com/article/20935/the-relatively-poor-performance-of-gold-stocks-1976-1980-and-now

    1. Major corrections in gold stocks and gold bullion ended during the second half of 1976. As an aside, these corrections unfolded in parallel with an economic rebound.
    2. The BGMI traded sideways for about two years beginning in early 1977, despite the fact that gold bullion was in a strong upward trend throughout this period. As a result, in late 1978 the BGMI was still about 50% below its 1974 peak even though gold bullion had returned to its 1974 peak.
    3. Although the BGMI finally began to trend upward in 1979, its weakness relative to gold bullion became even more pronounced due to gold’s dramatic upward acceleration.
    4. When gold bullion peaked at $800-$850 in January of 1980, the BGMI was no higher than it was in 1974. This means that the BGMI did no better than ‘tread water’ over a multi-year period during which the gold price quadrupled.

  6. duckwhorocks1

    The only reason you got those kind of numbers in the 1970’s was because of very high nominal GDP growth and duh…very inflation.
    Even then here are few salient facts…gold bugs will not tell you.
    1) Gold was virtually flat in terms of oil. So if you used oil as a measure of inflation, in the 1970’s Gold did not outperform at all.

    2) Gold stocks underperformed Gold during the whole bull market. Yeah it can happen. It did happen during the biggest bull market.

    3) Gold roughly doubled the performance of the CRB, so again outpacing inflation but not by a crazy amount.

  7. duckwhorocks1

    Anyone want to guess which was the best asset class during the 1970’s?
    Hint…. It was not Gold.

    It was REITS….bet you don’t read that on Eric King’s site.
    http://realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/research/papers/full/716.pdf

    In 1974 if you invested $100 in Gold by 1981 you would have had $250
    In 1974 if you invested $100 in Reits by 1981 you would have had $300.

    Table 1: Inflation Protection Success Rate
    REITs Commodities Stocks TIPS Gold
    65.8% 70.4% 60.8% 53.8% 43.2%

    I think I am now officially a REITBUG.

    1. Gary Post author

      I noticed you cherry picked the exact top of the first wave up in gold. Why not start at the beginning of the bull market.

      If you invested $100 at the start of the bull in 1970 then you returned $2400.

      How do your REITs compare to that?

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Gary,
        You cannot compare the performance from 1970.
        Gold was not freely traded. The price had been artificially suprresed fir decades. People were not allowed to own gold freely. The change created a sudden shift. The first run up was just a catch up. Just like when a central bank removes an artificial peg. The currency rapidly drops but forward pricing where available would tell you that was going to happen. Between 1970 and 1974 CPI was 5-6 % and interest rates were about 4%. There was no reason for gold to go up 6 fold except as a catch up. 1974-1981 period, the one I got from the paper, had CPI near 10%.. So even if you attribute the first $65 gold price rise to catch up for not being freely traded for 3 decades, the total return was 8 x. Now where have we seen a 7-8x return for an asset class over one decade? Oh right gold from $250- $1950 over 2001-2011.

  8. WallStreetJesus

    The bond market is in a bubble and has been for quite some time.

    Every bubble is different.

    One month ago copper was under 2.10, today it is almost 2.7. The commitment of traders report showed the commercials missed this entire move which makes me wonder if somehow the numbers haven’t been manipulated. There are a lot of people that follow the COT’s and are getting their clocks cleaned right now.

    What is going on with palladium?

    Platinum $908 means there is a whole lot of room for gold to fall. Platinum had a bad day yesterday.

    Oil had a bad day yesterday.

    Its not often mentioned but The Great Beanie Baby Bubble was one for the books.

    With Brexit and Trump I think some rather large players were caught on the wrong side of the markets. It takes time to unwind these positions. I think we are in that phase now. This uncertainty is driving up the dollar.

  9. jpeterman

    Interesting perspectives duck.
    Gold may be going up may be going down. Several scenarios are possible.
    Who knows…
    It’s good that you guys (Duck, Ped) post here to keep goldbugs on their toes.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      I have made some nice money on Gold and SIlver on the long side in the past but also on the short side.
      Right now there are so many better inflation plays that i cannot see myself getting really excited about Gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      That is another characteristic of bubbles. Price will usually double in a year or less during the final parabolic top. Oil did this in 2007 and 2008.

      Gold has yet to produce that kind of move that would signal a final bubble.

  10. goldilocks

    Edelson suggests a possibility of a cycle inversion and potential for new lows in gold (below $1000) in early 2017.

    1. Gary Post author

      He’s covering all bases.

      I think he will be wrong.

      The YCL has been occurring late in the year and is due any day now.

      1. Robert

        Needs to happen like Now Gary ie. Monday! Bears are very close to breaking 1170 support which would bring another $20 flush!

        Quick question Gary or anybody… Typically what kind of rallies are the norm out of YCLs in bear market for gold? Like at least a 50 buck move? So 1170+50 maybe 1220? I’m guessing so maybe GDX 23-24 on the dead cat bounce at least?

      2. zbigkid

        Better happen PDQ, because if gold drops below support at 1170, its gonna go a LOT lower.

        Capital from all over the world is flooding into dollars.

        A good article as to why that is happening, structurally speaking, can be found here…..http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov16/USD11-16.html
        and another one here…
        http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct16/USD10-16.html

        Gold is gonna have a real rough go of it, with a rising dollar, further supported by increasing interest rates. Unless the inverse correlation somehow inverts.

      3. TraderPete

        I have to agree with that. Edelson is all over the map. He said gold would bottom 10/5/16, but it didn’t. He said gold should go up into mid Dec. Now he says gold could see new lows in early 2017. He is so wishy washy. You can’t trust what he says.

        1. TraderPete

          Even Dr. Stephen Leeb is now changing his tune. He said, recently, that gold will not go below $1,150. Now he is saying it could get down to $1,000 in the next month or two. After that, it will skyrocket to $20,000 in the next five years or so. The only conclusion that I can come up with is Leeb, Edelson, and other famous analysts are wishy washy and namby pamby with their predictions. But, i guess everyone has the right to change their mind. After all, the markets are wishy washy and namby pamby. We just have to learn to go with the flow.

  11. Frederic Degembe

    duckwhorocks1,

    The BGMI did go up as fast as gold from 1976 -1980 and started outperforming soon after. So gold stocks were not a bad investment after all! I guess your chart reading was incorrect! The BGMI went from 200 to 1200, not a bad investment for an index. I guess several micro gold stocks went up far stronger!

    1. duckwhorocks1

      It was flat between 1974 and 1980 as the charts shows. Sure we can pick different peaks and troughs but a huge part of the bull market had uneerperformance.

  12. earthkitten

    Gary is right. People always get it wrong. People were buying gold in 2011 during QE when everyone
    thought that would produce inflation or hyperinflation. All of that was delationary. Gold sunk & the
    dollar began to rise. Now we have the exact opposite about to happen. Interest rates will rise higher
    than most people expect. We will enter an inflationary period. Bond yields will rise. Dollar will fall.
    Gold will rise. Get ready. It’s going to happen.

      1. Gary Post author

        Yes I missed judged the power of QE to stretch the 4 year cycle. It didn’t take me long to figure it out and get back on the other side. But as you can clearly see I was not buying gold at that time. I thought the best case scenario was a multi-year sideways range.

        1. duckwhorocks1

          Yeah calling a 50% decline a sideways market is still wrong. I can find 20 other examples on your blog. Like I said, coin flip. But I understand calling for that massive bull market. Impossible to get the gold bugs to pay for subscription. Hell I have destroyed you over the past 4 months in trading calls and I doubt I could sell to 4 of these guys.

  13. duckwhorocks1

    Let me expand a little bit more on the REIT performance.
    REITS are a very good inflation hedge and most times will do better than gold. But here is the kicker, they have done better than gold over all long term time frames.
    From 1972 to December 2015 a period which included 2 big bull markets for Gold, NAREIT index was up 146 fold, whereas Gold was up about 25 fold.
    http://www.savills-studley.com/research/market-volatility-and-the-effect-on-us-commercial-real-estate

    If you take out the the initial appreciation for gold was due to years of suppression the difference becomes even more dramatic.

    Other time periods, Jan 2000 to December 2016 NAREIT up 725%. Gold up 400%.
    Jan 2000 to December 2011. This was one period where Gold did better with a total return of about 675% handily beating REITs 310%.
    And finally from the peak in 1980 Gold is up 40% whereas REITS are up 40 Fold or 4,000%.

    1. Gary Post author

      Ha not even close. From the bottom in 1970 to the recent price (I think we still have a bubble phase ahead that will send gold to at least 5000) gold is up 3400%.

      A few individual stocks have outperformed that during bubble phases (Dell did about 20,000%) but generally nothing has outperformed gold over the course of two bull and bear market cycles. And the gold bull cycle still has further to run IMO. By the time this is over gold may give Dell a run for its money.

  14. mchawe

    I have been reading this blog for some time and I have been watching the opinions of people like duckwhorocks1 who thinks gold is in a perpetual bear market and of course Gary who takes the opposite view. I think they are both right. This is why. For once I am with some Elliott Wavers on this market and we are now at an important tipping point. (I am not crazy about Elliott Wave because in real time they always have an alternative wave count which is nothing more than an each way bet.) Here those Elliot Wavers definitely make sense to me. The way I see it, we are in a long term bear market from the 2011 Top without a doubt…. apart from the move commencing the early part of 2016. However in any market you can expect corrections and what we are going through is an ABC correction in the overall bear market. Top of Wave A happened in August after a violent move up from January, and down move B is ongoing with a bottom expected soon. Wave C will then go higher than Wave A and I will look for topping action at a price above the High of Wave A and it should be down from then. Then I will look to go short. My own trading strategy is to be long right now with GDX March calls (bought last week) so I know how much capital I am risking. I am already long stocks and am ready also to throw them overboard if they breach certain price levels, but not the options. I will keep them until I know my theory is no longer possible.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Dude, get your facts straight.
      I have been calling for Gold to go down for 3-4 months and I have been right.
      And I have been calling for Gold to go down in other commodity terms for the foreseeable future.
      If you were following carefully you will see I made money with two long trades on SLW and GDX.
      Do you need the links to those?

  15. tulip

    Looks like Gary is gaining an audience & Korelin is losing ….
    Gary tolerates differing views which adds to the blog.
    He also readily admits his mistakes……

  16. jhmoffett

    Gary — approximately when and how far down do you expect the stock market to drop in the days ahead? SPX 2100. 2000, 1900, 1800 or lower by end of year or later? Thx!

    1. Gary Post author

      I have no expectation for stocks to drop immediately. They could, but I would certainly not short stocks during the holiday season.

  17. Bull

    It looks as if India is back pedaling on the gold ban, so hopefully some tailwinds entering the week. The jobs report forecast to be weak also. So FOMC rate hike and pause. First quarter has been weak last 9 years, with interest rates and strong dollar, should have an additional adverse effect.

  18. ras

    Many insightful views pro and con regarding pms. Price is king and everyone who wants to survive needs to pay attention to price. I trade only what I see regarding price levels. Two facts: 1. Many key stocks are not confirming the new low in gold. This can not go on indefinitely. At some point, one or the other needs to yield. When NUGT is cut down in half, a rally seems likely, especially when accompanied by significant non confirmation in key pm stocks. So, odds favour some kind of bounce first. How far the bounce would carry, I have no idea. We will cross that bridge when we get there.

    2. Copper, steel and nickel and other base metal stocks are powering up. Pull up some charts and have a look. Also, take a look at a Canadian nickel mine chart Sherrit (S.to). Stock just entered a new bull phase ( 10 w ma>30 w ma and both rising plus price above both and rising above a previous high. No important resistance until price reaches 200 w ma around $2. Current price $1.38.

    As a result, it is hard to make a case for deflation, no matter what individual opinions are. Sooner or later, pms are likely to join the party, may be, after some dithering to cause confusion. Will change stance if price dictates. Cheers.

  19. jeffd5584

    I remember when I joined this blog this past summer, the comments were generally positive, Gary was still on a hot streak and most people seemed to be doing reasonably well. Fast forward 3-4 months and this place is becoming nothing but negativity, insults, “trolling” and other nonsense that you can find on every other message board. Gary has a lot of patience for this crap and it speaks volumes that he even allows some of the comments to stand. And yes, I think the gold calls haven’t been good lately (but then again, I don’t know what he is specifically doing trade-wise). The problems (in general) with commodities (as opposed to the sponsored stock market) are that they do have a lot of “two-way” action and the declines can be just as severe and relentless as the rallies. The cycles do get stretched, etc, etc…OTOH, stocks have a perpetual bid under them and every correlation that had once been positive can return for a few weeks to continue the ramp-a-thon. Sometimes it begs the question why bother with anything else when you could just trade every damn ICL in the stock indicies.

  20. chrise

    Duck,
    you’re a narcissist, trying to win in a pissing match that no one gives a shit about. All that matters is your account balance. The difference between you and Gary, is timeframes! There’s an old adage I was taught a long time ago: it’s better to see the forest than the trees. Regardless of weather or not we see gold break 1370, in 2017 or not doesn’t deteriorate the fundamentals behind it. Gold will simply take a longer period of time to get back up to the 1900$ level. It will happen, and if you don’t think that is you’re a naive duckling. Gold has been in a 6000 year bull market, and it’s not over. It may be in a medium term consolidation with a lower bias that commonly happens before an expansionary tone, spx for example…. If you’re playing with leverage then make sure you do your due diligence, and understand what type and how the leverage is, that is being taken on. If you’re looking at miners, make sure you have the best miners. If you’re playing with options I’d hope they are LEAPS. But, my point is… Sure, not all of Gary’s calls are right, but did you know it only takes 30% success in trading to be successful? It comes to money management. Point and case, playing that one long in miners with a good trailing method would have made your year, it did mine. It actually has paid a lot better than being short miners too…. So stop with the pissing match, contribute if you have something worth contributing. If not shut up, and take a seat.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      “Gold has been in a 6000 year bull market”
      That is too funny. You should definitely start your own Gold Bug website.
      So now in this 6,000 year bull market if we have a sideways movement for 1,000 years that would be easy for a portfolio to handle, correct?
      Your comment is the equivalent of telling a Mayfly during the 1987 crash that the Dow is in a 20 year bull market.
      https://www.reference.com/science/insect-shortest-life-span-a4006133c5473130

      And as for the validity of your comment you can extrapolate the gold price from the Gold silver ratio and see that it has been in a real bear market for the last 700 years.

      http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/gold_silver_ratio_very_long_term_1344-2012.gif

  21. tater123

    Whether gold sees 1370 is important to alot if Garys
    Subscribers because they are gonna need 1370 to break even. Time is money … what is the opportunity cost of holding and holding compared to being on the right side of the trade.

    Gold 1900 may happen next year or 30 years from now … you have no clue. I guarantee those who bought at 1500 to 1900 thought they would be laughing to the bank by now … 😢👎

    1. tulip

      Well,
      Gary…. you might want to take a peek at Leebs piece on KWN….
      Timing is meaningful in gold…..

  22. chrise

    If you are still long gold or gex from 1350… trading is not for you. Ifbyou fall into this category… you are the one that is responsible… you can’t manage risk… you are subscribing to garys thoughts..
    you are responsible for the execution…. I do admit holding cold turkey was one of the stupidest comments i have ever heard…

  23. ras

    JPYUSD cascading down for 3rd week. No let up in sight on this front. Unless this changes, expecting a bounce in pms could be a stretch. Looking at monthly, this index bottomed in 2015-2016 around the same level as in 2007. Could we be due to a complete retrace? A couple of months could do that? Time will tell.

  24. duckwhorocks1

    King World news is outdoing what I expected from them.
    I had predicted their stupid headlines 2 days back…already we have
    http://kingworldnews.com/chinas-plan-for-skyrocketing-commodities-and-20000-gold/
    http://kingworldnews.com/forget-the-pullback-legend-says-price-of-gold-to-surge-more-than-a-1000-from-current-levels/

    Gold to $20,000 eventually and surging more than $1,000 in one year…hmmm where have I heard such nonsense before?
    From Stephen Leeb in 2012!
    http://www.mining.com/silver-to-blow-through-triple-digits-gold-to-hit-10000-leeb-88006/

    And from John Embry who keeps coming on King World news
    http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-experts/john-embry-expects-a-silver-price-explosion-driven-by-physical-shortage/
    This is what John Embry had to say about the (coming) physical silver shortage: “I’m wildly bullish on silver. I don’t think the physical market has ever been this tight. I see ever greater demand for precious metals, and more and more of it will go to silver because gold will become increasingly expensive … I couldn’t be much more bullish.”

    This is the crap you Gold bugs read year in year out and F’s your brains. NObody holds these bastards accountable and 4 years later after being down 40% they come back and say the same shit.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        The HUI Gold ratio will one day go back to normal even if every Gold company issues another trillion shares, because I heard it by an “expert”.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Gold does well well real (inflation adjusted) interest rates are lower.
      When real interest rates rise, Gold usually falls.
      Also when real interest rates rise in the US, USD/JPY increases as in the Yen …$XJY falls.
      So the same force , real interest rates dicates both of their movements.

  25. briansmith672

    So Alexandru what happened to the stock market scortch last week? It went to all time highs you clueless blowhard.

  26. chrisG

    Lol, ya, I made a hell lot last week. From my industrial materials stock. His views was previously gold up, rest of others commodities down big. Glad I know how to interpret price actions of market. I took the nice profit and switched into silver. Hope it works out

  27. briansmith672

    Like I said, Alexandru talks big but he is full of hot air. He has no idea where anything is going but talks with great conviction. He is as bad as Gary and both are full of crap and mostly wrong.

    1. daverobson

      Go look at Alex’s call on Gold when Gary was predicting it to go higher on Sept 6 . Alex has been right all along .. the scorch has not started yet but it will .

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