1. Gary Post author

      There is no required portfolio size for anyone. Some people have multi-million dollar accounts and some people have 5000-10000 accounts. Percentages are the same no matter what size account one has.

    2. ltr

      Are you looking to pay money for a service so that you can lose money? Gary could not made a better call by setting himself up to be a clown of the market by this post. I meant come on, these analysts like Gary should be more ethical and apologize to their subscribers. People who needs guidances sign up for junks like this to help them out but they got stuck.

      1. Pedestrian

        I don’t know about that Itr. Gary is maybe a couple days early with this post that’s all. I think he is right though. We have a bounce coming fairly quick.

  1. jeffd5584

    One of the major strengths of cyclic analysis is “picking tops and bottoms”. Numerous cycle followers had Nov 8th pegged months in advance (94 TD) cycle that arrived like clockwork on Feb 11 and June 27 (Nov 8)…see the pattern? For the majority, buying the market around November 8th would have been “picking a bottom”. Multiple trendline/channel lines broken on SPX, RUT, NDX, etc…The whole concept is to put the favorable risk: reward in your corner. “Waiting” isn’t the worst thing, but in these modern markets, most of the moves are a series of “V” bottoms and tops. How many moves in Crude Oil over the past 6 months to a year have been traditional “trends”, as opposed to high volatility swings higher/lower?

    Even this latest massive surge in stocks hasn’t offered the traditional “wait for trend confirmation” crowd much to chew on. We make cycle lows one night and the next day/week it’s 5-8-10% higher. The cycle dates clear out months worth of range in 1-2 sessions. Personally, I wish it were a bit cleaner, but that’s just the way it is nowadays.

    1. ras

      Cycles could contract and expand, not entirely dependable. Folks, with expertise in cycles, have been on the wrong side of price in pms since September. There is simply no sure-fire method that works all the time. Every method fails at some point. It is best for anyone to use whatever method works for him consistently.

      1. Pedestrian

        Yes, I agree with that Ras. There are no sure-fire trading methods. And we know that because of the kinds of results that are being posted by pension funds, Hedges and even sometimes the banks. Returns are sub par too often and reflect an environment of inconsistencies, confusion and unpredictable events.

        You would think that the best funded trading houses would always get superior results or have the best insight into the future. That is not always the case though. Last years example was when Goldman blew out 5 of their 6 best bets for 2016. Clearly if the professionals can’t get predictions right then how should the rest of us expect to do?!!!!

        In the worst cases such as with Hedge Funds their AUM’s have in some cases crashed and funds are closing on a regular basis. Actual industry wide returns are typically not even beating the S&P on an annualized basis. Perhaps it is ironic then that small traders who are often the least sophisticated actually hold the advantage if they are careful money managers. This is a market for stock pickers and active traders. Buy and hold is still a dead end idea.

        Anyway, when it comes to gold miners lately I have dispensed with most technicals. The mirror pattern on so many charts tells me all I really need to know. As long as it does not break then we should expect prices to mean-revert since that’s what the mirror implies.

        According to that pattern we are near to a bounce in miners however it looks like it may not satisfy much if GDX is our model. More a tease than anything else. The picture painted is sideways to down until we are back at the bottom. I look forward to that though since it presents such a nice opportunity to reenter trades in the New Year.

        In general I would say that I am not too impressed with the outlook for the mining sector shares for the remainder of this year. Even swing trades and short term bets look kind of dubious as the risk is too high when your primary trend is still down.

  2. ras

    We could be ready for a bounce in pms. Just trade the bounce. $ bounce would seem to be losing a bit of steam. No buy signals on key individual stocks yet. Not worried about being shaken off or missing the big kahuna. One could trade metals as well while waiting for the big move in golds.

    PMs could make a lower low or they may not. I don’t have a crystal ball. Prepared for both outcomes. Just trade what you see and ignore the rest as noise. Once pms transition from the trading to the trending mode, just ride until the major target number is reached.

    1. Gary Post author

      How does one know ahead of time that a trading range is breaking out and trending?

      I hear that all the time but I can’t say that I’ve ever seen anyone spot a trending move until well after it’s already started and most of the time they end up buying right as the trend is ready to reverse.

  3. chrisG

    Yesterday, PM have stood the test. Could be bouncing. And sure hope they dont make new lows later. Bcos, in order for the industrial metals to continue the monster rally, we still need PMs at least not to drop big.

    1. ras

      Markets are tricky. There is what is called group rotation. Since early Nov while gdx is being clobbered, metals took off: slx,x,tck,fcx,hbm, etc.These are substantial moves, trivialised by folks who missed the action. Money fled pms and moved into metals. Who knows how long this is going to continue?

  4. duckwhorocks1

    Just surprised seeing someone who routinely says “Technical analysis fails at bottoms and hence you need cycle analysis.” touting classical technical buy signals.

    1. Gary Post author

      The technicals are lining up with the cycle timing bands. This usually happens during bottoms.

      For those that use purely technicals they are giving buy signals.

  5. duckwhorocks1

    Oil should move over $50 soon and we should see $70 by end of 2017. The best case for gold is about $1,500 in a year. So % wise even now oil looks better.

      1. ras

        It could happen. That would be an eye opener. If gold drops to 1000, can oil be far behind. Energy stocks are highly fragmented. They moved ahead of oil. They may not keep up with any incremental increase in oil price. Could be tricky.

      2. duckwhorocks1

        If oil goes to $30 again for some time most of the middle east countries and their production could get permanently damaged. But the current supply exceeds demand by less than 250,000 barrels a day by my calculations. We should have demand rise another million in 2017 and supply will stay flat at best considering how many mega projects have been canceled.

  6. Dday

    A month back I asked you if you used daily charts for signals, You stated only for day trading and you preferred weekly and monthly charts for long term signals. So what are the weekly and monthly charts telling you?

      1. Dday

        MACD crossing to the downside on gold, k line (stoch)fallen below 80, thats bearish, spin it however you want.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    EURGBP has failed to produce a swing low. This hesitation plus the factors already presented add to the scenario that EURUSD will fall below 1.0536 today, instead of waiting till FOMC Dec11.
    We have a very interesting day at hand!

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        I think the last chance it will have to break 1200 will be today and on a shakeout (quick reversal).

        Even if EURUSD gets below 1.0538 later today, I think that we will see a lower low on FOMC, hence a higher high for USX (on week 16 of this intermediary cycle), but that undercut in EUR will produce a higher low for gold, a HCL.

        The prior yearly cycle of EUR was a bit short, just 8 months long, so that it would be normal for the current one to extend into month 13 – hence the lower low for EUR and the ICH of USX on FOMC.

      2. Alexandru Popovici

        EUR has just taken a dive despite bullish macro reports.
        That’s a strong puzzle piece underscoring the incoming failure of the swings in currencies and gold 2 days ago: EURUSD below 1.0538 today is already a done deal! ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. Alexandru Popovici

          A rise to 1.0635 should be produced to enforce the bear to come, as a classic pre-move.

          1. duckwhorocks1

            Follow the yield spread between Bunds and 30 year treasuries…they seem to be a very good 2 day leading indicator of where EUR-USD is going.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    and here we are with the rise made at 1.0636.
    a day trader would short this as soon as it touches 1.0627.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    Pedestrian, I personally thing USX has little scope to rise:
    – to 101.85 today/early tomorrow, then down to DCL and then
    – up to 103 on FOMC on DEC11, then down to ICL at some 97.25 through JAN6
    – up to some 106 (YCH) through March/April, then down to YCL in the next summer to 96.

    As to gold down to about 1182 today on a strong shakeout and stop loss release and that will be it – no lower low even as USD gets to its YCH in early April.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      the next maniac up-leg in USX (as the current one has been) should come as late as in the next yearly cycle, through next autumn – this yearly cycle is exhausted to produce astonishing moves, it will need the strong cooling through the summer, the YC decline, to allow the bull to recharge with the requisite strong power to deliver such manias of optimisms of Lady Market.

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    SPX futures set to charge their BEAR right now just as EURUSD has done earlier today and I presented above.
    The formation is powerful, I’ll add to a full FAZ position when the price gets back up to my buying point.


    PS: unsurprisingly, the Scorch has started as gold seeks for its bottom.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      SPX futures are worth shorting as they rise at 2202.50, just as I had told earlier today that EURUSD is shortable after it gets to 1.0635 and it topped at…10.0636 ๐Ÿ™‚

  11. chrisG

    We are in the seasonally strong period. And index at new highs. Its foolish to be shorting. If not too bullish, just stay in cash. Wait patiently for the drop to buy.

  12. chrisG

    Uh oh, gold. I just know for USD, any correction will not happen before the end of next week. So, more danger for gold. Little upside, plenty of chances for downside still.

    1. Pedestrian

      You must have the magic touch Chris!
      The October 2015 gold peak will be dust if there is no bounce back today.

  13. duckwhorocks1

    Anyone else noticing that this is supposed to be the seasonally strong period for Gold and it cannot get a foothold?
    I think a ban from India is a 50% chance and that could drop it by 15% in a day.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes, but only for those who tell bugs what they want to hear. If your leaning is to be a bear or to sell the straight goods you will go broke on subscriptions. That’s the problem with this business. Even oddballs like Bo Polny can earn 6 digits annually soothing the gold bug emotions and calling a bear market a bull.

      Just come up with a novel technical system. Give it a cool name and then plan on being correct 40% of the time. The money will roll in like the tides. Course you will need to interview a lot and take more heat than an angry wife loaded up on hooch could ever dish out. That’s how its done.

      Oh, plus a LOT OF WORK!

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Oh damn….No that would not work for me.
        I would like to help people make money.
        Gold bugs are mainly idiots. “But won’t the manipulators get overrun this time…Won’t Physical demand overwhelm the paper shorters?” Idiots.

        1. Pedestrian


          I really (really!) want to agree whole heartedly Duck but I don’t want to offend any bugs that might be reading the site. I used to think they were idiots too. Later I learned they were mostly inexperienced traders who got sold a load of shit by the metals pumpers. These days I think of them more as victims.

          If they were not so damnably OBNOXIOUS it might be rewarding to try and help them learn something new.

  14. chrisG

    Decided to long some gold here with a tight stop. Gold previously was defended at 1190. Lets see if this is a washout.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      it has to go lower, Chris –> there was an intraday bearish flag from 1188 to 1196
      hence a theoretical downside target of 1174

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        …your buy-stop should be at 1180 to make sure you get the order but not to buy it here at 1190 – it is too high, too risky

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t made any call yet?

      I suggested subs stop out if gold went below 1275 and to wait for a weekly swing before buying back. I’m just saying we should be getting close. So far the miners are still resisting following gold to new lows. That’s usually a bullish sign.

    2. Pedestrian

      I don’t know about crashing Gent.

      GDX is down a couple percent but when you look at HUI you will notice it has hardly budged so far today. Considering gold and silver’s sharp decline this morning that might come as a surprise. And check some individual gold charts of select companies if you have time. They are rising. So this decline in gold has brought buyers of miners into the market who are picking up deals even as sellers are bailing out in disgust. That should not be too big a surprise. We are getting overdue for a bounce anyway and this might trigger it once Thanksgiving and Black Friday are out of the way. If you do buy, be sure to get out before the Pearl Harbour anniversary in December. It’s almost always a bad day for the gold sector although I really don’t know why that should be.

      1. Pedestrian

        OK, I take that back. HUI is catching up and is down 6% now.

        So this down day came as a big surprise to traders who are just bailing out now. And NUGT; well it has been kicked squarely in the knackers today. Off a whopper of 18% so far and still falling. That inverse fund is about to meet Jesus and see its January 2016 lows again within days. Guess we have a share split coming soon after that. Pity the holders. OUCH!!

  15. jonsyl

    well we have the resolution. The best the gold bulls can hope for is a consolidation after a day like today. So why bother?? Too late to short and way too early to buy. I stick with my view, wait till you get a confirmation of some kind of bottom first and don’t ever ever listen to those who claim that by waiting you miss a majority of a uptrend or downtrend for that matter. sadly memories will be short after this episodes, as most people operate on their gambling instincts with what they view as scientific evidence. Cycles, past support levels blah blah blah.
    Fundamentally there has been no reason to hold gold with the dollar strength. Eventually the dollar strength will be the undoing of the equity markets as has been the case for bonds. Not yet, but will be when US and Trump realize they have boxed themselves in a corner by outpricing their goods and services abroad while increasing the cost of everything at home. Right now if you buy anything in the US, the dollar rally gives you a positive return on your money if you’re a foreign buyer. So everyone piles on while their respective currencies drop

  16. Gary Post author

    $30 Price differential between Shanghai and the Comex. Shanghai not buying the 20,000 contract attack this morning.

    Eventually arbitrage between the Shanghai market and Comex should bring down the Comex as physical gold should move east.

    1. Pedestrian

      The Yen is confirming gold is doomed. That ain’t no cup and handle on the weekly chart anymore. We will see Yen retest its 2015 lows of .81 or thereabouts. And look at the Nikkei on a daily chart. It is relentlessly up confirming that Yen/USD will keep falling on a trending basis. I have been talking about this a lot lately because it has been one of the most reliable ways to monitor golds health (or lack of it). Sorry to everyone here if I am being a big, fat, bore by repeating the idea but it is worth your time to follow this since it will keep you out of hot water.

  17. chrisG

    lol, nice stop. $7 loss. Poor gold bulls. My industrial metals portfolio seems so much better. A lot less stress ๐Ÿ˜‰

  18. chrisG

    Have been telling u guys to look at Industrial Metals for a while. Do u all know u all would be making huge profits from it, instead of being stubborn and falling in love with Gold and PMs? CRB bottom and could rally. But it could be oil or IM , or basic materials… all except gold. Who knows, when CRB turns down, your gold would be much worse, whereas profits already being locked in for IM or BM.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, the same warning for you that I made to Chris earlier: no long on gold until the leg-down stems from the bear flag mentioned.

    Furthermore, the bottom in gold is to be heralded by a lower low for EURGBP that I mentioned earlier (i.e. below 0.8485)

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      take a look at GBPUSD too: just as I heralded, the pair is the only one, GBP is the only currency to resist USD and not to produce a lower low.

      the low in gold is near but 2 things must occur first: lower low in EURGBP and miners below 20.

  20. terrywg

    ok, this is it. Going to back the truck up on spot gold at 1182 levels. Selling pressure has run out of steam and there are gaps to be filled at 1202.

  21. chrisG

    FYI guys, Hui is more and more telegraphing 140 or lower. I have been saying HS formation. If hui 140, I think gold is in for further problem. And I really cannot imagine Gary missing on this. When Gary says potential bottom, it creates two major problems.

    1. People will be bullish to long.
    2. Those who long will not cut, cos they think the low is soon. But before they know it….. 50% gone

  22. terrywg

    alex, i must say i’m very impressed with your deep understanding of the currency markets. Your trades are dynamic and based on price action and your stop management is superb. As an experienced currency trader, I am still astonished by the precision of your calls. Not sure what system you are using (I know you are attuned to market psychology), but richard peterson’s trading on sentiment has changed the way I trade … you might find it interesting if you haven’t read it already!

  23. Alexandru Popovici


    80% WE HAVE YCL GOLD @ 1181 !!! Just $1 off my initial target of 1182 set one month ago

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      it is only the volatility to be induced by FOMC minutes in 3h that might bring a lower low but otherwise, the low is here.

          1. Pedestrian

            I would join in for a hug but I’m still stinging from Goldi calling me a dick.
            (A correct dick btw since gold did fall off a cliff and get its face smashed on a rock!!!)

  24. duckwhorocks1

    So the calls I made in August
    1) USD/JPY over 110-Check
    2) Gold under $1,200-Check
    3) GDX under $20โ€ฆclose enough
    4) Energy shares kicking GDXโ€™s butt-Super duper check
    5) GDX not exceeding $32 until August 2017- Gonna check that one but time will tell.

    Gary you owe me a second Burrito for the under $1,200 Gold call which you said would not happen and added that I will never be able to buy at the bottom. Would you like the email for the money transfer or you never actually pay up?

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    rebought gold @ 1187
    even if I know there might be scope of lower price based solely on market noise (the kind of traders like BRIAN), I prefer to be in at this level – it is nice and cozy ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      GBP has been a marvelous filter to make my entry at this level.
      Clearly Lady Market knows that UK stays in EU.

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, Victor, Bekind, Ped, Chris, Yasen, I can easily bet gold will close the day above 1200!

    One more leg down intraday on FOMC minutes speculation and then release and…this will be it –> the market will have about 2h from their release to drive gold back up on heavy buying.

      1. Pedestrian

        I have no idea what Yellen will say but the 30 year is almost right on its lower trend line and if the wrong words come out of her mouth we may just see yields rise further and pushing the 30 into a technical breach. I hope that doesn’t happen because its going to call for a total rethink of my strategy.

    1. Pedestrian

      OK, you’re on. I will bet you a purely hypothetical and imaginary Burrito that 1200 is going to become short term resistance and we close below in the high 1190’s. Call it 1197 to be more precise. But I see where you are coming from. Above 1200 will draw in plenty of late day bottom fishers.

        1. Pedestrian

          I think I won that bet Alex. The official spot gold closing price was 1185.35 although gold did hit 1191.00 late in the day. I would appreciate it if you would send me that hypothetical Burrito as quickly as possible since my imaginary hunger is off the charts!

    2. daverobson

      Lets see Alex….. do you see a further drop next support is in the 1130 range? Stops have been wiped out. interesting thing not capitualtory volume on the miners.

  27. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, Victor, it is very interesting to notice the moment, the very timing of Brian’s satisfaction: RIGHT AT GOLD’S BOTTOM.
    I think Brian has cast an extraordinary market signal from the inertial Stupids’ Camp that the bottom had got been put at 1181 or that it is very very close on FOMC volatility.

  28. Pingback: Gold Miner Technicals Are Signaling a Buy Soon – ETF Daily News (blog) – Short Term Wealth

  29. Alexandru Popovici

    Ped, you know my thinking: yields will rise slightly higher than expected

    USX to close the day with a biiiig up-whisker, a loooong shoting star, a falling comet ๐Ÿ™‚

  30. Don

    The dollar continues to defy Gary’s cycle analysis. The fact that crude has been going up while the dollar rises blows away the nonsense theory that commodities must be closely correlated the US dollar. It is demand that determines prices and the dollar factor is secondary.

        1. Pedestrian

          Just a minor point to follow up the comment that preceded this one;

          Gold did in fact do exactly as I had predicted and 22 hours later returned to the 1182 number. In itself that is not really all that interesting however from a trading standpoint it was enough information to stop the temptation I might have had to enter any trades either long or short.

          So monitoring the charts of lesser degree is often really helpful when we could be closing in on a reversal. I only wanted to leave this short post for people who are new to trading just to point out how following minor charts such as the five minute can improve your odds on choosing trade entries with better precision.

          Hopefully I have been helpful.

  31. duckwhorocks1

    Anyone see the Fat Lady?
    I hear she has an excellent singing voice but I cannot find her.

    $1,173 for the close. GDX under $20.

  32. Pedestrian

    GDXJ hit its 50% retrace level today of the whole move since January 19th this year. Just reviewing some of my old stocks plus a selection I keep handy. Lordy lord, a lot of them still look just awful. Chart porn I suppose. But others are showing signs of life. Amazing that we have already seen a few companies trading back at their prices from the summer of 2015. Eventually most these will take off again folks. That’s just a matter of time now no matter how dark things looks today. And who knows, GDXJ may be warning us that a relief rally is coming soon.

      1. Pedestrian

        Yes, good call Ras. I had not checked it yet but did so when I saw your post. It is also just a little below its 50% line although these could all close the day very near the Fibs. I have no idea what is in store for a bounce though. That part seems to elude me right now but I am willing to buy it depending how the rest of the day shapes up.

    1. Pedestrian

      Newmont hit its 50% retrace today as well. Since its one of the gold markets flagship companies and one that the big funds buy it is worth noting. Also GDX has hit and fallen a little below its 50% fib. We may indeed be at the bounce point so keep a close eye on the large companies to see if they hold or break down from here.

      Even gold bears know that nothing falls forever.

    1. Pedestrian

      Too overbought for my liking. Check the RSI. I would wait for that one to pull back. Its too far above the 20 week and looks like its completing a fifth wave up.

  33. Alexandru Popovici

    Dave, I think 1181 will hold.
    And I think that not only because one month ago I had set the 1182 target but based on today’s price action.
    One more leg down on FOMC minutes in 20 minutes ๐Ÿ™‚ and up we go above 1200

  34. Alexandru Popovici

    Terry, well said! It is a fantastic calling you’ve coined: “Brian’s bottom” ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ it’s a great laugh ๐Ÿ™‚

  35. Don

    Those who doubt Alexandru need to read back a few months of comments. He has done a superb job of calling the markets.

  36. Don

    Alex, are you still short the treasuries? I covered my shorts a little too soon. Do you think the bond bubble has truely ‘burst’?

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      the legs down both in gold and especially in GBP (the superpower currency) have been very soft, virtually non-existent.
      only EUR has had a leg down, but, as mostly expected, not a lower low.

  37. Bv

    Come on Gary, they’re making you look like an amateur with their calls. Trouble is I’m Old Turkey, and I’m still not ready to throw in the towel so I think we must have further to fall unfortunately. You’ve already come down from $1500-1550 to $1450 in for 3 months time. You need to man up, look big and pay up on your burritos. Let’s get this blimmin rate hike out of the way so we can finally find a bottom and move up.

  38. Alexandru Popovici

    Don, I am not shorting treasuries since Trump got elected – his election stopped me from running the short forward ๐Ÿ™
    many blame Trump for the fall but it is stupid – it would have occurred anyway. trump changed nothing in the markets.


  39. tater123

    When is the next rate hike decision? Everyone will have to wait for that to be the event when gold bottoms … seems too predictable to me that it will happen like last time they raised.

  40. WallStreetJesus

    Alex it doesn’t appear that gold rally is going to appear today. Best tune up your crystal ball.

  41. terrywg

    pedestrian, i think a couple of days ago you mentioned that you couldn’t see usd correcting before the rate hike. I think you’ve not considered that a dec rate hike is fully priced in.

    fomc minutes more or less confirm rate hike and no reaction from markets, this indicates to me that it’s been fully priced in and now a correction in USD is imminent in a classic case of “buy the rumour sell the news”.

    1. Pedestrian

      That is an excellent point Terry. I was just reading yesterday that rate hike odds are now hitting on 100% which can only mean that there will not be any surprise come the December 14th FOMC if a hike is announced. So you would be right that the market is either in the process of pricing that in or has already done so. The dollar may have topped today at 1.02 or close to it. We can only wait until Friday now to see if there are reversals coming for gold, yen, dollars, bonds and oil. We seem to be near some major inflection point though.

      If gold does take off though there is always the TSX. Yayyyy Canada!

  42. Alexandru Popovici

    the next filter I’m looking after is to see EUR gaining relative change against GBP,
    …EURGBP rising out of its ICL.

    Watch EURGBP and if it rises and gold follows it, then … ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Gold won’t be going anywhere until Gold Bug Joe that bought gold at $1377 capitulates.

      Gold bugs are a tenacious group by their very nature.

  43. jpeterman

    I’m thinking gold will finish 1185-90 today.
    Any reason we may see a higher finish after FMOC minutes?

  44. jonsyl

    Alex, afraid you’re flogging a dead horse in here. Gold will not mount a reversal this afternoon. Nothing has changed, dollar remains in driver seats with no sign of any weakness. It’s not hard to figure out except when you have preconceived view of what the market SHOULD DO vs what it’s actually is doing. There will likely be another consolidation in here between 1170 and 1205 or so before another likely drop. You need a close above 1210 to get even remotely constructive coincidendal with a dollar drop.

  45. Robert

    Complete garbage as usual gold and miners. Wish I never knew about gold. There is no bottom ppl! Where are the buyers? No one has bought any yet, im about to just take a big loss and ease my pain

  46. jonsyl

    robert, unless you’re in leveraged products, I would play a consolidation over next few days or double up if we happen to drop another twenty bucks, and then get out as it broaches 1200

    1. Robert

      Thx for the advice but im already screwed bc i bought leveraged etf. Maybe I will get back my money if GDX goes to about 27-28. That would be a miracle

      1. Pedestrian

        Then sell Robert and get it over with. Or hold and pray for a bounce (then sell).

        Either way you need to stop crying about spilled milk. You are not the only one who got beat by the gold market. Not long ago the sentiment readings on gold reached an unprecedented 98% bulls right near its peak. Most of those guys are losing money today. Some are wiped out.

        And that was your sell signal (by the way) so learn to pay attention when everyone in town is trying to ride the same damned horse all at the same damned time. It means get the hell out while you still have time. I don’t know why nobody ever seems to learn that lesson except the hard way. But that’s how it is.

        And as an aside, when there were 98% bulls in gold there was maybe two people on planet Earth going against the grain and shouting warnings for everyone to get out and get off the horse. Nobody listened. Nobody ever does. You did not listen either. So you really have only yourself to blame.

        And I should know. I was one of those two people.

        1. Robert

          Ped no need to be mean this is messed up but holding for a bounce where I will sell and reduce exposure to gold and miners. I will put the money to other sectors maybe better luck elsewhere. Gold is just too difficult for me

  47. jonsyl

    Robert, Happens to all of us at some stage of the game. Best hope now for a change in trend, is for Trump to say something stupid, to roil the markets or international scene sooner than what I expect post inauguration

  48. jonsyl

    he will, question of how soon. We’re in for a nightmare once he actually takes charge. It will be like watching the Kardashians worldwide. His fight will be with the republicans who finally have control with single party rule and will want to maintain it.

  49. Bull

    Looks like the bull has been turned into a steer and crapped on by the bear. Not selling, the charts are ripe for buying. Breaking out the bourbon till watching the movie Revenant.

      1. Robert

        LOL Bastards! I will sell if GDX goes below 19.8, which is Avi’s last support level. Can we get 24-25 before plz so I can sell this crap? Amen

        1. rayalex123

          Using support levels are very misleading and a poor way to trade IMO. Undercut lows followed by strong reversals are very common.

        2. Goild

          Hi Robert,

          Sorry to hear we are in the same boat losing. My approach is to accept the loss and forget I had that money. The issue here is looking forward. Do I really want to be in this game? Is it worth?

          The way I see looking at how NUGT behaved before is that before it rises again it will knock down every stop, an every will; it will even play the standard move of going much lower to create fear. The gold market is like a devil. NUGT is today more than 2 times what it was before it went up. So it is has a lot of room to still go down. Before it goes up, it needs to consolidate, test lows, knock every one, and whenever we all are beaten, it will go up. It is a devil. The play would be to be patient and hopefully get it near the bottom.

  50. chrisG

    Gold is going to$1050 to test the 200week ema? Possible you know. It will Just nice making Hui fill the HS target of 120 to 140. This scenario gonna hurt the bulls big time.

  51. Bull

    AG Thorson and Jordan have $1050 as bearish targets. This bull has no balls, I thought it would bounce, but it’s a bug on the windshield, I’m treating this like a bear market and selling the rallies.

  52. rayalex123

    There is no way gold goes lower, you guys need to look at the divergences being created in the miners. Some actually closed up today. This is not 2013 – 2015 so you need to stop acting like it is.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      How about – there is no way gold goes MUCH lower. The panic and sentiment is worse now than it was when gold was at $1050 so there can’t be much more downside. They (high frequency/computers) may go for the stops under $1080 as they are ripe for the picking and a easy target.

      Its a bull market for the metals. This is the drawdown phase, that’s life in a bull market. 15 years ago gold was under $300. If you are suffering then you are probably using too much leverage. Gary is right you just buy and forget about it. Hope gold keeps going down so you can buy more. These prices are a gift – take advantage of them!!

      One of these days platinum will wake up like copper recently has. Who knows when that day will come though – patience is required. Prices <$950/oz will be at some point in the future be looked at as a real bargain.

  53. rayalex123

    Daily sentiment index (DSI) of small traders is now below 5%, anything below 15% means a bottom is near.

  54. chrisG

    Yes, bulls are right. Please sell miners. Please don’t. Cos when gold crashed further to 1050 hui to 140, your pain will be so big, I guarantee u will cut then. Heehee….. That’s why I scoop from u. ๐Ÿ˜‰ I am so evil

  55. duckwhorocks1

    Not calling it yet as my technical work is still a work in progress but does anyone see the $1,140 as the final bottom area?
    I had called $1,160 about 3 months back but seeing how easily it sliced through $1,199 I am not too optimistic.
    At About $30 on GDX I pointed the fantastic similarlity between the 2002 rally and 2016 rally. That similarity has still held although decreased. I think the Trump fake rally messed it up but that calls for a final GDX bottom around $19.60-$19.00.

    1. rohankapoor003

      Hey Duck,

      Good thoughts….are you seeing USD/JPY point to a 1140 XAU as well?
      I just did a quick Fib retracement from 2011 low to 2015 high and we bottomed closed enough at the 0.618 around 99. Do you see USD/JPY breaking 2015 high – this would be very very ugly for Gold

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Hi Rohankapoor003,
        I think at some point Gold has to break free of the USD/JPY correlation if this bull market has to continue. I think it will eventually. I did not expect USD/JPY to break 111 with such ease and overshoot so I am not too clear on that front.
        For all Gary’s work on cycles he would have saved his subscribers a ton of money if he realized that TLT drives USD/JPY (inverse) and USD/JPY drives Gold (Inverse).

  56. duckwhorocks1

    Gold Bug site headlines over the next 3 days

  57. duckwhorocks1

    The Actual reality
    1) What about the “Naked” buying by the large specs who don’t intend to ever take delivery. Should we not address that? If they did all the Gold would have emptied out of the Comex ages back.

    2) Very little physical gold moves between the 2 countries.

    3) Only a true idiot ( I am looking at you Andrew Macquire) would try and equate annual supply and demand of a commodity where we have above ground stores of every ounce ever mined. We have over 40 years of annual supply above ground. So 1 month of supply is less than 2% of the total above ground Gold.

    4) Yeah I have been hearing that since 2009 and they have proven Zerohedge wrong 8 years straight.
    5) No actually the only that can continue is that you will always find a bigger fool to listen to your podcasts.

  58. stockpick

    Please go back last 4-6 weeks and see for yourself how much in denial you are.

    The irony is that your XLE call will turn out to be the right call but you got out due to conflicting cycle analysis and technical indicators and GDX call to be a wrong call (at least so far).

    Not sure why you are still fighting the market with your USD call since it has not dropped per your cycle analysisโ€ฆโ€ฆ.and I am not sure if the bond bubble will also burst as you think it will.

    I can say the gold market is imploding and from your analysis since election you are jumping from one indicator to the next to make your theory โ€œrightโ€ but it hasnโ€™t worked for you.

    I will say this: if gold does not turn around hereโ€ฆโ€ฆgold will break $1050 and will go on to make a new low!

    This is your LAST hope and prayโ€ฆ..if it is not answered then your cycle analysis will be proven wrongโ€ฆโ€ฆand your baby bull call was just a stroke of pure luck!

    Sorry to be harsh but sometimes it is a good idea to stop and see the facts with cold hard look and changeโ€ฆ.as they say: Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughteredโ€ฆ.which one are you??

  59. richie67

    Just a reflection wrt the gold price…India gold imports have dropped with 60% during 2016. And in the face of that it still rallied for over half a year.

    FYI, once a bottom is hit like in Dec 2015/Jan 2016 the doubling in price of the miners within a 3-month timeframe was expected. This is typical action of many stocks that have hit a long term bottom. A retrace of 50% is also normal. So many reasons are being brought to the front as to why gold and mining stocks should fall even further but we are probably close to a YCL now especially since we have the India gold ban rumor being telegraphed over the last couple days baked and into the price.

    I remember the stock market declines in 2010 and 2011 and what market analysts were saying ..pretty much the same story as with gold now…everyone was saying the rise up from the 2009 low was a bear market rally and that we now would see a continuation of the bear market. Guess what…it didn’t happen. The 2009 bottom was too fresh in people’s minds just like the bottom in gold which happened 10 months ago. I’m looking for a YCL during the Nov Dec timeframe and we should be very close.

  60. TraderPete

    Here is a direct quote from EWI: “Bullish sentiment among silver traders recently fell to 8 percent, the lowest reading since mid-2015. So, sentiment is in the right place for the next big leg in the price pattern.” Therefore, We are near a bottom. So, be prepared for the next leg up. Q.E.D.
    Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!!


    1. ras

      Not sure about a big leg. But I see double bottoms and +ve div in many key stocks and etfs. Al least, I am expecting a respectable bounce. Time will tell.

  61. Dday

    The original call was gold was supposed to be rallying to $1500-$1550 over the next 3-4 months. The reality is gold has fallen to close to the 61.5 fib retracement. Lows were expected first at no more than $1275, then $1208. The dollar was not expected to rally above 98.5 and retrace to 95. So we have gold at $1185, and dollar 101.8. Where did the original prediction go wrong?

  62. Alexandru Popovici

    Guys, I owe you a bunch of virtual burritos – gold did not close above 1200 yesterday and there was no falling comet on USX’ chart.

    Despite that, I am happy USX has to day 14 of its daily cycle – I think Lady Market’s mania about the dollar is over (hence her depression on EUR).
    European macro reports this morning have added some volatility, German IFO Survey is due in less than half an hour –> ONCE ALL THESE REPORTS GET BEHIND US THIS MORNING, EURO SHOULD SPRING LIKE A ROCKET.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      WOOOOW, EUR is impatient and forgets waiting for the IFO report in 20 minutes –> ALREADY SPRINGS TO HIGHER GROUND LEAVING ITS YCL BEHIND.

      Nice intra-day H&S on USX’ chart.

  63. Alexandru Popovici

    USX and EURUSD not to return to the top of 102.11 and the bottom of 1.0518 just attained one hour and a half ago until early next summer.
    Gold and EUR have a clear path UP.

    Now it is time for stocks and “the other” commodities to bottom –> THE SCORCH.

    1. terrywg

      Alex, I think you might see your target 1215 today instead of last night. Buying pressure is building

    2. daverobson

      Great stuff Alex… so originally you said gold will run up into January. Do you still see the same forecast?I thought you said it would chop around in Spring ?

  64. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY, I post this 200th comment. I think it is a record number of comments, isn’t it ?

    At the same time, I think that this record itself can be used as an indicator that gold has just bottomed at 1180 – the more people feel like talking on the blog, the more likely it is that the main topic of the blog (in this case gold & miners) are at a critical juncture.
    Very smart of you to have developed a unique throng indicator for you (& indirectly also for bloggers who can see it) – the number of comments at gold junctures ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ very creative!
    I congratulate you and THANK YOU again at the same time, Gary!

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Congratulations on being Gary’s most prolific poster!!

      I do enjoy reading your posts.

      You would make a great cheerleader.

      Only time will tell if gold has bottomed at 1180. I would say right now the patient (gold) is in critical condition.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        ๐Ÿ™‚ love doing it. I guess it fills an emotional gap of mine that I do not have whom to talk with about this passion of mine – finance in general & trading in particular.
        My wife hates it, my friends are into other things and when I start talking a little bit more into detail about forecasts and inter-market relationships…I can see their faces getting looong and in disarray, they are doctors, engineers, one mathematician, one judge, lawyers but they do not get a thing.

    2. Pedestrian

      Record comments hunh? Congratulations. That’s great.
      Gary, we are all waiting for your next installment. Put some meat on them bones we might start chewing on!

  65. Alexandru Popovici

    After an unsuccessful early shorting of DB a fortnight ago, I had asserted that DB shows budding signs of fantastic leadership amongst world’s top banks.

    DB has just cast a new important such sign of great leadership: it smelt and initiated the decline since early last week, before all other large banks !

    Now to confirm its leadership it should also bottom before major US and European banks in early JAN or maybe as early as late DEC and also show a lower overall decline from top to incoming bottom.
    Should it do it, I will buy it with both hands wide open and hold it long term alongside SLP.

  66. WallStreetJesus

    Hey Robert this post is for you. Drawdowns are a natural part of investing.

    Although the pain you are feeling now is bad there is more pain coming.

    When you finally capitulate and sell is when things get interesting.

    That’s when the market suddenly turns and not only takes you back to break even, it goes far beyond so you could have actually made a lot of money on the trade. You have yet to experience that part but I can tell you from experience it sucks.

    1. Dday

      “….When you finally capitulate and sell is when things get interesting….”
      Robert the last bear phase lasted for approximately three years, throughout that time bulls were constantly calling bottoms. Thats not to say this phase will be the same, but use caution when listening to so called “analysts”.

      1. Robert

        Sorry to burst you guys bubble but I will NOT capitulate. I am already down big and the pain has been unbearable but I have come to just accept this as a total loss and screwup. I have decided to hold and wait until GDX 24-25 however long it takes. If gold goes back to 1080 I will just accept the total loss. Too late for me now to capitulate

        1. Dday

          No worries as long as you don’t have to liquidate you will be able to hold out. On a technical note the 61.8% fib retracement for the entire rally from 2003-2012 is around $800, so theoretically that’s the lowest gold could fall, while still remaining in a bull market in my opinion.

        2. daverobson

          Hang in there…. Robert. No point selling now. Lets see what the next two months bring. You will have learned a valuable lesson from this trade.

  67. Alexandru Popovici

    USDJPY’s bear is charging by the pair now going higher, while gold is getting lower to charge its bull exactly in the same fashion as I posted yesterday that EURUSD would grow to 1.0635 from 1.0614 to charge its bear: and it did grow to 1.036 and the bear was obvious to the whole World ๐Ÿ™‚

  68. goldilocks

    Shanghai exchange is quoting $1215 gold. I wonder if this is correct…..Gary pointed this out yesterday (or two days ago).

  69. duckwhorocks1

    Shanghai has historically traded at a premium. Maybe it is because of the larger % of deliveries involved. Here is a link from 2013 where it shows it traded at the almost same premium for the year. http://www.mining.com/web/infographic-comparing-comex-and-the-shanghai-gold-exchange/ Brent and WTI have had various spreads and no one loses sleep on it. Here is a prediction. At some point the Comes will trade at a premium and then at that point the collective retards of the gold bug community will write countless articles documenting it is because the “Shorts are losing their ability to suppress the Comes Gold price.”

    1. goldilocks

      I’m not sure how old you are, duck, but I remember the bull run of the late 1970’s/early 1980’s and read lots of stuff written by “gold bugs”, etc. A lot of them were out to sell you something, whether it was “collector’s” gold coins or freeze dried food to store in your basement. At the hunting cabin this year, I found an old book written by Howard Ruff. HA….it could be edited a little, and marketed now as well! I guess some things never change.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Was not born then ๐Ÿ™‚ but the end of the world is always a best seller whether it be Ben Affleck going up to blow up an asteroid or central banks destroying it allegedly through money printing…. Sells really well ๐Ÿ™‚

  70. Alexandru Popovici

    yes, indeed, Terry.

    if you have stocks, the only type of stocks worth having now is UTILITIES.
    Sectors rotation should be soon seen on the move …. it is best to be a leader, not a laggard, it is always the hedge funds and the smart swing retailers (individuals who’ve got rich out of trading alone) who turn markets.

  71. ras

    AEM taking off on Toronto stock exchange. All the bounce doubters will be surprised by the decent bounce taking shape. Gary was a bit early. Oh, my, the amount of flak he received! I hope he had a thick flak jacket. Cheers.

    1. Pedestrian

      Ras, I would not buy that bounce based on the chart. The other thing is where gold/silver miners are concerned there are far more losers than gainers on the TSX today. So this is a market that is still selling off other than a few companies like Taseko, Tanzanian, Primero and Corvus etc. It is technical trading mostly.

      I just want to add as well that the Yen is now down about 10% peak to trough since the US elections and does not show signs of ending that decline just yet. It fell again today another 3/4%. We are already in correction territory on the Yen so stay cautious since I strongly suspect it will fully retrace its 2016 move and that has very negative implications for all gold trades.

      If today’s Yen fall does not relent then gold will open tomorrow in the red once more.

  72. ARends

    Thanks for great comments and links!

    I would love to know what your impression is of the link posted http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-23/another-day-another-record-high-no-brainer
    So many market correlations have changed in past weeks as indicated. There are surely a huge shifts happening in the market and it seems to me. As if bonds are exchanged for stocks (risk of bonds),coming from emerging markets to US companies strengthening the dollar and weakening those currencies, with the flight of funds or riches into the dollar as possible temporary protection of fall of economies. The signs seem to be read wrong by many, before they might thereafter dive into gold considering we in an end game before implosion I think or THE SCHORCH (Alexander)

  73. stockpick

    Question for Gary:

    Of all the indicators pointed you forgot to mention the most important trading indicator of all: 50 DMA is now below 200 DMA and the price is below these 2 averages for GDX, HUIโ€ฆโ€ฆ

    no serious trader will enter a long trade with a chart set up like that. on the contrary all rallies will be shorted until price recovers at least its 200 DMA โ€ฆโ€ฆ..agree?

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually the death cross is a very low percentage signal. Most of the time it’s a better buy signal than a sell.

      1. Pedestrian

        I have heard that before Gary but cannot find anything substantial to back the claim. The indicator did not get its name because odds were 50/50 though. Crossovers like the 50/200 are a lagging indicator and in general you can already see the trend that is being established once the cross takes shape and becomes a fact.

        Unfortunately for precious metals and many miners the crosses are merely confirming the falling trend that is already underway and thus reinforcing the negative implications that a Death Cross implies.

        I want to give you a few examples though. There is now a death cross on the gold daily chart that arrived on November 18th but that was after a substantial decline in gold had already taken place since late September. The cross landed 9 days after the election. It was not a buy signal.

        There is an impending death cross on the silver daily that should cross by the early part of December. There is an even more fascinating golden cross impending on the silver weekly chart though that should complete in late January so lets keep our eyes on that and stay positive.

        For Platinum, the cross came on November 4th and 5 days later on election night plat did a face-splat.

        The GDX Death Cross also came on the 18th this month. It too appeared just after the big declines had begun. As a matter of record, I warned readers on this blog before the crossovers happened as a heads up. DC’s and GC’s need to be anticipated. You can see that a cross has a high probability of happening but you generally need to act BEFORE it is an actual event. The timing of when to act will vary depending on the chart you are reading.

        Hourly’s are not going to be the same as monthly’s!

        Once you see the cross much of the decline has often already taken place.

        And maybe that’s why these appear as buy signals depending on how one reads charts. It is because they are lagging the declines they are signaling that means by definition that they will also be showing up BEFORE the next bounce and markets turn North again.

        Anyway, I don’t want to get too pedantic and boring with the explanation. It’s better if you just go and review some charts for yourself when you have time. You can backtest what I am saying here easily and it is worth your time if you want to get a feel for using this indicator.

        Death Crosses populated most of the precious metals ETF’s, a great number of stock charts and gold and silver themselves during this month of Novemeber. Their approach was as easy to see as a freight train on a prairie night for anyone interested in looking at the patterns.

        On a positive note, the 50 week is rocketing up through the 200 on GDXJ making that a golden cross and telling us juniors are probably going to turn up again. Note though that the weekly golden cross is coming AFTER the huge run in metals and thus it lags the peak by almost 3 months.

        Also note though that its trend trajectory is implied as sharply higher. So as I mentioned, you need to anticipate where it will go much as aiming and shooting down skeets coming out of the barrel. You shoot at where it “will be” rather than where it is. For those of you here new to reading charts I would suggest you flip between the daily, weekly and monthly charts and carefully review each one separately for the crosses.

        The reason I say to look carefully is because many new observers will overlook the fact that on the daily versus the weekly charts that the 50 and 200 day moving averages are in opposite positions. In GDXJ the 200 is falling on the weekly right now but rising on the daily giving us two completely different analysis conclusions.

        What you will see is DC’s on the short term charts and GC’s on the longer term charts. That is not a conflict. It just means that you now have a better way to view trades opportunities across time if you take the lag into account. EG: Daily is bearish and weekly bullish for example.

        Hopefully this was helpful too.

  74. Steffmeister

    This is shaping up nicely, bought a fairly large position in K92 Mining today at 85c

    Bought Platinum Group Metal at sub 2CAD a couple of days ago.

    Now I will wait for the geopolitical violence peak next week and the first week of December, would markets turn around mid December?

    Gold&Silver is looking strong going into 2017. Maybe the precious metal bear is finally put to sleep at the end of 2016?

    Stay away from Japan/NIKKEI an analyst I know said that the NIKKEI will lose most of it’s mojo in a year or so, maybe a decline of -70-80% in 2-3years time.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      The guy in charge is committed and not just involved. i would give it a 50% chance and a 100% chance that gold falls at least $100 in one day if it happens now. of course if Gold moves lower over weeks and it might get priced in…there may be covering on the news.
      So far, Don;’t think it has been priced.

      1. Pedestrian

        Looks like Modi doubled down. For the next 50 days Indians will not be able to exchange their old money for new paper notes at all. Instead they can only deposit the old cash with threats of large tax haircuts on money that cannot be properly accounted for. So billions of Rupees will never be returned. Already stories of some people burning up the old cash to make it go away. This amounts to a windfall tax on the entire nation as the government itself will then become the custodian of all the replacement notes as the money supply is expanded back to normal in 2017 to meet existing demands for paper. So there will have to be public works and other fiscal initiatives directed by the authorities to get new cash back into circulation. The Indian economy could see a substantial one-time boost in government sponsored economic activity as a result. Yo answer your question I would say yes, a gold ban is a reasonable probability however if it was done it would not likely be permanent. Rather, just a means to an end as corruption is being stamped out. Secondly, it will force existing gold out onto the market as an alternative to black money. And this I believe is the end goal. To create the circumstances necessary to get Indian families to be motivated to dishoard their family gold wealth. It is already happening as prices have risen above global prices quickly even as the Rupee has crashed to new lows. So gold demand will rise but in an environment of import scarcity it must be brought out of private storage and into the marketplace. If the basic mindset of buying and holding for eternity is broken then gold will become the natural alternative to completing deals off-books in the country and a brisk trade may develop as an outcome shifting gold from being a mere store of wealth to being a means to an economic end.

    1. Pedestrian

      Armstrong today writing that November could see a waterfall decline in gold prices. So far he is right.

      1. Pedestrian

        But it has created an outside reversal for this month. The bounce should be meaningful when it comes. Perhaps by January or February?

Comments are closed.