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Yes. We should still get a cycle low but I’m doing old turkey. Lost too much and all gains trying to trade, gonna buy and hold miners for at least 100%
Gold is going to at least 1500-1550 during this intermediate cycle. By the time it gets there one will have made a ton of money.
Or, you can over trade and get there with nothing to show for it.
Over trading is unproductive and leads to burnout. I am expecting a couple of attractive trading and/or rotational opps, though, as the advance matures for nimble folks. One has always the option of holding until gold hits 1500-1550, an important resistance zone. Gold is now under 1290. Upside room for another $200 +. We could be looking at 4 plus months for this to happen.
I’m with you Robert. Trading during a bull market
can lead to disappointment & buying in at higher
prices. Be patient. You will make money if you don’t
panic. Thanks again Gary for your excellent analysis.
Opinions are fine. We are near the starting gate. Nothing goes up straight. There could be a couple of trading and rotational opportunities as the advance matures for nimble folks. Just handle your success without heating up. One can not measure what other traders can or can not do with one’s own personal yardstick. Just do what works for you and enjoy the ride. Cheers.
Tomorrow should produce an entry for mining stocks with FOMC meeting volatility. Have your levels in mind and execute.
good advice Gary… thank you.
No one else is providing advice except much caution & bearishness.
You rock.
Over trading, most of us went through this. Those who have more patience can go old turkey, but I can’t sit tight and do day trading with no more then 8 – 10% of account money, the rest account is long on any trend. Small % trading allows me to have a daily average around 130$, for the last year. Most abt 70% trades done in the first 1.5hrs market open with average 160 trades p/qtr, I’m with Scotia iTrade, 4.99$ commissions p/trade buy or sell. Trading since 2009, lost my first account, it was big ) : still did not but close to recover all.
Anyone would like to share your trading experience? Commissions with other brokerage?
Have a nice trading everyone
Hey there.
I started with Forex and got my tail whipped twice. Blew out two accts even though I was fundamentally correct on the directions every single time on big calls. In 2014, when Japan devalued, I should have made 10-50x my account value. But Because I was so overleveraged, I had a margin call and blew apart the whole trade. Was depressed for months. Had a similar experience with the Pound.
By 2014, I had studied the 2008-2011 events, as well as the fundamental collapse of the USD currency due to debt + exploding baby boomer payouts. So I started moving into Gold. By the 2015 fall, my account was down 60% (still overleveraged with juniors), but I knew to not sell. In January, I couldn’t sleep cause my spidey sense was telling me that gold was bottoming. So even though my accounts were -60% bleeding red, I went and borrowed basically 150x my account size for bullion purchase and 5x my acct size for quality miners.
Since then, that large (what I call my managed acct) has continuously gone up. I’ve added some to it in long holds. My small trading acct went back up to cover all my previous losses and then retraced 30% since July because I made stupid trading errors.
So, what I am beginning to understand is to NOT trade small amounts, but to just consider all of my money ‘managed money’ for long term swing trades. (I even bought JNUG at 10.50 last month with the managed acct.) It seems I just play smarter when I have the patience to play the long game.
Anyway- that’s my story. Hope you enjoyed.
I was a bull after index corrected big beginning of the year. Index did not make a fifth way advance then, hence the bullishness. Now that we have this fifth wave up, the fifth wave either rally big, or rally some and done with. With price action, looks like index is over, ie, latter scenario.
Market could be beginning to do a bear market. It could be like late 70s. If this scenario plays out, we will see gold out performing big time. Index drops and sideway actions, while gold and gold stocks makes higher highs, and then parabolic
Both USX and USDJPY just -0.2% away from meeting their 38-fib retracements.
FED no-news press release should cater the volatility to fill this lag while allowing GDX and gold to shakeout their 50dma and subsequently get rejected by it.
I’ll short gold in the FED-driven strength.
So many traders blew out their account trying to short gold early in the baby bull.
Now we are early in a new intermediate cycle and the dollar has a long way to fall yet before it breaks the daily cycle trend line.
So far this is unfolding just like every ICL I’ve ever seen. Everyone is caught looking for lower lows so 99% miss the bottom. Then when they do buy they sell on the first sign of strength because the ICL trained them to expect disappointment. The intermediate cycle then runs away from them and they end up having to chase at much higher prices, usually buying right before a short term correction and then getting knocked out for a loss.
USX’ DC trend line was broken.
I chart it btw the lows of days SEP30 and OCT20 – the failed daily swing high on OCT18 warrants such “subsequent” drawing.
USD approaching support at 97.25 I expect a bounce and rally continuation. Gold and silver done well last couple of days, I think mainly due to the FBI publications.
I think the market has sniffed that FED will go very slow when they raise rates again. Assuming…. that they raise again! lol
I have seen a lot of criticism regarding your USD forecasting. How do you feel your dollar predictions have fared in the last couple of years? Do you think you have they have been accurate or inaccurate and why?
Chris:
FED will raise rate in DEC with a probability of 100% regardless of the outcome tomorrow:
– if Hillary wins, they are out of the woods and they have to continue on the track of rejuvenating credibility that they are not indiscriminate money printing doves,
– if Trump wins, they will want to show what an unfit president he is and they will be even more motivated to step up monetary policy contraction.
…hence, the only difference btw outcomes is the level of the hike, a dovish hike (if Hillary) or a hawkish one for Trump, to ensure only one mandate for him.
GARY: I think you are early to chart that HUI with the conclusion of IC confirmation.
Intermediary cycles are best worth charting on weeklies instead of dailies.
Thus, that rise can very easily prove just a shakeout both of the weekly trend line and of the 10Wma.
I personally give scenario a probability of 90%.
I am debating whether to add shorts on this bounce. Unfortunately I covered most but not all on my way down as I stated here repeatedly and was looking for 1,220 for my last 10%.
The Yen and Gold again seem hitched.