Now that gold has closed below the 1275 support level I think we are about to get second bloodbath phase and gold is likely to reach the 50% Fib retracement over the next 5-7 tradind days.
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I would guess we get some kind of bounce today as the metals are near support and short term sentiment is extreme. But unless the Nasdaq crashes and burns today taking the dollar down with it then I will be planning on a second bloodbath phase next week.
I know it’s not what any gold bugs want to hear.
So what about silver? Most of my miners are silver with significant zinc/lead production and have held up well. Silver and base metals are doing good. I find it strange that gold is under such attack yet silver is holding up.
I don’t buy the rally in stocks either. For the last few months stocks have tanked when Trump took the lead and now that he wins they soar after a historic reversal. Seems kinda phony.
The same media that stated Hillary was going to win also said the markets would tumble if Trump won, seems pretty straightforward, it was BS. Silver is an industrial metal and isn’t getting hammerd like gold, copper 7% up and rising no stopping it. Looks like Trump ironically, has been good for every asset bar gold….
Doesn’t matter what the media says. The market was saying that a Trump win will mean a market meltdown. Right up until his victory speech then for some reason everything flipped. I don’t buy it.
Well its just like Brexit, they would have preferred a remain vote and during the campaign stated a leave vote would be disastrous for the markets. That turned out to be BS. So basically i’m saying the markets were lying. Just the same for the Trump victory, the sky hasn’t fallen in markets adapt.
“Trump’s talk of unfurling about $1 trillion infrastructure-related spending has investors salivating, because it has the potential to deliver a jolt to an economy that has been limping along. But so-called fiscal spending, as opposed to programs of monetary stimulus in place by other central banks world-wide, is bearish for bonds and bullish equities.”
From an article:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-druckenmiller-stopped-hoarding-gold-the-night-trump-was-elected-president-2016-11-10
” Everything depends upon what happens to Nasdaq ….. “. May be, you may want to notice the strong momentum behind brokerage stocks. It will take time for this kind of momentum to dissipate. Many folks on this board have been expecting gold to decline to 1200. We are close to it. Silver is dawdling on its way down. So, possibly, gold could have further downside. Time will tell. Cheers.
ZKOT, good morning!
What is your opinion on gold ?
I personally stick to my “Advice to swing traders” I tweeted here 3 days ago, meaning:
– DCL in gold today
– bounce to ~ 1293 next week
– bloodbath through the beginning of DEC to YCL=1182.
What’s your view ?
Hey Alex
Nice work on the timing and patience!
How do you see the SPX playing out….YCL also beginning Dec?
Hi Alex,
Could I ask you what kind of investment strategies you follow; from my understanding you use market psychology, EW and cycle analysis.
Have just started investing and am very eager to learn more. You’ve been great with all your advice so far and I appreciate you taking the time.
FWIW, Edelson’s model predicted the low in gold to the day at the beginning of October. It then predicted a decline from end of October until mid November. It then will rally until December.
This model predicted these moves back in August or July so I will not bet against him.
Edelson called the Dec 2015 bottom in gold perfectly but didn’t give any buy signals because he was waiting for a pullback the whole time. He gave a buy signal for gold/pm stocks a few weeks ago.
Edelson is also calling for new lows in oil in Jan 2017.
Here is his model
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/uploads/2016/10/WAV1019new-1.png
Larry expects the October lows to hold (gold) but…… he readers were also stopped out of their gold long position (via UGLD) yesterday. I believe they still hold physical gold. He also stated that if the October low of approx. 1243 did not hold, gold could decline to $1080. Sometimes, his models get inverted.
Thanks goldi, I only read his free weekly updates. Looks like every analyst including Gary is now neutral or bearish on gold. Michael Oliver is the only analyst I follow who is bullish on gold still.
I think a lot hinges on the Nasdaq today. If it falls out of bed and takes the rest of the market down with it then we probably just saw a manufactured rally to allow big money to escape their stock positions.
I’m assuming another daily cycle down in stocks would also crash the dollar and they would go down together.
So I’m watching the Nasdaq today. So far it’s not looking good as the NQ futures are down almost a full percent and not far from breaking last weeks DCL. That would signal a failed daily cycle.
Once the dollar goes then gold will rally.
So everything depends on the Nasdaq today and Monday.
Gary, sorry, but I disagree:
1) the surge in stocks has not been manufactured.
It was the expression of the bipolar depressive character of the Market.
I personally think that the sentiment analysis tool you employ (sentimentrader.com, if I recall well) is more prone to errors, it is too rigid, to mathematical.
Besides TA tools, I also use psychiatry in reviewing markets and PSYCHIATRY HELPS A LOT!
While TA tools are the flesh, bones and blood, psychiatric investigation of Lady Market’s consciousness renders my analysis a soul, something beyond numbers…numbers are just an expression, a vehicle for us, poor humans, to feel the untouchable.
Therefore, by employing psychiatric investigation we access a scope of review with fewer errors than sentimentrader’s tool.
The good thing about it is that we all can read psychiatry.
2) USD and SPX do not walk together all the time – medium and long term they are Uncorrelated; they form correlations only short term.
I anticipate USD to move lower, as I said before, but not to lower low as stocks will see new depths.
We will see.
Alex are You still short “Deutsche Bank”? I got in short at a better price than You but see my position going down the drain anyway. There was another bank I have been short and could get out at a minuscule loss after going short bigtime at the absolute top yesterday ( “Societe Generale”). It went to such overbought extremes, that I couldn’t believe my eyes. The same may happen to “Deutsche Bank”. I am already 2 percent underwater with my short.
What do You think?
I’ll say this. Something is very wrong with the Nasdaq. ICL’s rocket out of the bottom and don’t typically have any kind of significant corrective move until 8-15 days. As I type the NDX futures are threatening to test last Friday’s low. That is not at all how a normal ICL behaves.
I doubt Trump is going to be great for the economy. He’s been crystal clear on wanting protectionist policies, and those are never good for the world. That just escalates from a currency war to trade wars. The Mexican peso is already starting to price in a protectionist regime.
I am also confused by market behavior. There are some “Renewable Energy” stocks like “Nordex” that are more oversold than ever right now, and I bought a small chunk. But my position is still down 5 percent.
Coal Trumps windpower.
Guys, any ideas why the FANG stocks have crashed since Trumps victory?
Ok , got it Gary. Protectionist policies, hence bad for them
Alex, we each have our cycles. Yes!!! And i got a strong feeling. Gary is having a bad cycle now. His cycle has gone bit haywire already!!! lol.
Nvm, no one is god. We have our ups and downs 😉
Alex short DB. Omg, he is on his way to Detention Barrack! lol
just an observation: gold and silver institutional holding in my TFSA portfolio been reduced yesterday for a few %.
Alex what is ur view on gold miners here? Do we get a dead cat bounce or is it gonna b a blood bath?
Sir Alex,
Thank you for chiming in here daily.
Bottom in metals today?
Thanks my friend……. where is that William nowadays?
1182 as in THE bottom bottom?
AMANTE, nope, I entered short too soon and was stopped out yesterday – I got a poor timing on the DB short 🙁 and…furthermore – yesterday and today Lady Market have shown me that I made a poor assessment on DB –> DB is no longer a laggard, DB is a top dog in the financials sector and the financials sector one of the top sectors.
DEUTSCHE BANK WILL BE WORTH BUYING AND HOLDING IN 3 WEEKS MORE THAN ANY OTHER LARGE BANK IN THIS WORLD!
What’s your target price for DB, Alex? Gap fill back to 50 MA or do you see something else? Thanks.
Heey, David, long time no see 🙂
Yes, indeed, I miss Will too! Most likely he was compelled by some new hermetic regulations since he was a trader 🙁
I personally think we will see a bounce and only then the final bloodbath later on.
yeap, David, that’s my target for gold’s bottom: 1182.
I have no idea on GDX, though…I rarely trade miners.
Yeah he was a professional with credentials and use to email me from time to time.
Anyway thank you as always take care and have fun this weekend with the family!
Cheers!
Guys, Hui is has a very neat target. $140.
Robert, please see my answer to David above.
Cheers!
Stay with BM, not PM. I think basic materials will outperform. Precious metals minings stocks will not be precious at all.
CHRIS, yeap. Gary is great; now it’s not his time; he’ll get over it.
Cyclically speaking, this increases the likelihood that his next forecasts will be accurate while, conversely, mine to be wrong 🙂
I think FANG stocks are loaded with smart money investment, really smart money with LOTS AND LOADS OF MONEY and they are simply…unloading 🙂 this only underscores the bearishness to come through early Dec.
So, belts on, folks!
Dear VICTOR, your data, if prevalent among banks and mutual funds, is bullish for gold –> if prevalent then indeed the YCL in gold/miners is close in time 😉
Ya, I always say, gary is more right than wrong. That is most important.
Covered all shorts on Gold and GDX. You know thing about pigs….
This decline has been SAVAGE but for long suffering Gold bulls I think the end is coming soon.
I think HUI bottoms about 5-10% lower. Gold and Silver bottom later.
yes, indeed, Duck, bottoming is to come later. PM bearishness is too profound now while USX is due for a short relaxation –> Gold/miners’ dead-cat bounce is imminent !
Duck, thanks to You and Alex I sold out of my leveraged silver position at a gain this European morning. Also sold palladium at a gain, gold at a small loss.
I am back into platinum now and a tiny piece of silver. Last chunk of platinum at 955.
Well good for you :). Not sure how much I contributed…but if I did you are welcome.
Could this be that undercut low of 1225
everyone was talking about with a top in stocks?
Alex I sold out of Deutsche Bank short, and it is still goin up. 🙂 Other good stuf that is totally oversold is still goin down. This stuff is crazy and so manipulated, I will go around and tell everyone about my experiences. I am happy I got my mom to never invest in stocks.
Beautiful!
If there is still any stock bull here, watch the intraday chart of NASDAQ since 9.00AM EST: a nice inverted triangle (trumpet) is charted 🙂
Good night to you all! Going to meet my chaps at the Poland-Romania soccer game.
Good luck.
The October low for gold turned out to be no support what so ever. Gary, i guess it would be fair to say that you didn’t see this bloodbath coming. It looks me like gold is headed to the $1200 range.
It seems that everything is unfolding pretty much exactly as Martin Armstrong has predicted.
In my opinion, Gary gets more things right than Martin Armstrong. Marty does a lot more of massaging to his predictions.
Here is the thing that bothers me about Gold and Silver. The COT positions, which I have been warning about for a long time…still look very optimistic.
The small investor keeps piling in. That really needs to reverse until the PMs can set a meaningful bottom.
It is possible that GDX sniffs it out and bottoms earlier but boy did people miss a chance to sell the Trump rally or what.
That was a gift to get out.
Yes Duck for the most part unlucky for us it the peak happened during overnight sessions and opened marginally.
So do you see a bounce here to Alex 1293 this the reason you covered?
I think GDX opened up quite nicely, relative to Gold on NOvember 9th but yeah Gold did its jig at 1.00 am. I definitely DO NOT see a bounce that high…$1,293 or I would go long.
But I am confused about the short term…so as they say…when in doubt…stay out. The conditions look ripe for 3-7 days of relentless selling to get us to bottom, but at the same time…real yields as in the inverse of TLT…long bonds….have had a 6 standard deviation sell off. So TLT should start rising soon….which means real yields compress……and that usually bodes well for Gold….shorter term.
Really..really big picture. If Gold is going to $1,500 then oil is gonna go to $100. Why would you want to mess with the overvalued sector for anything other than a short term trade then? And if oil deserves to be at $50 then Gold deserves to be no higher than $750-$1,000.
Just the way it was planned, overnight election rally. 😉
once the market sees the real Trump (all talk & no action) it will reverse the rally and gold will rally.
The republicans control everything. Business Tax cuts are a certainty. Cutting taxes and bringing back overseas capital at a low tax rate in guaranteed. S and P is going to $3,000.
As I said before, money is in a panic, rushing from one sector to another, not sure where it wants to settle. I think a stock market crash is becoming very possible, despite Gary saying the contrary.
What does Surf have to say? I trust his judge more than anyone else here.
What does Surf have to say? I trust his judgement
more than anyone else here.
Treasuries look like a rally is coming although I would not go long . I prefer to short them again down the road.
Some bull market for gol. F this crap. Better off working at Mcdonalds
My last chunk of platinum today at 946.
The market is behaving as if You don’t need this metal ever, but it is one of the most rarest on earth and has so much utility. Sometimes I really can’t believe what I see.
The world is crazy.
Yep. Platinium at $946 is so much better than garbage gold at $1,232.
Gold clearly moving into its YCL here. Gold’s last ICL in may at 1203 could come into play. 62% Retrace would come in near 1170
https://surfcity.co/2016/11/11/gold-yearly-cycle-low/
The parallels to the 2002 rally are just amazing.
I pointed this out in August and said GDX will not surpass $32 for at least 12 months where in I got nasty responses from 12 different Gary worshippers.
If the analogy holds….we should be bottoming within 3-4 weeks at a price of HUI 170 which would be about $19.75 on GDX.
This fits with the $1,182 YCL that our most accurate forecaster sees for December.
That would be a good buy point because you would get at least a good 25% rally of that low and more if the bear market is truly over.
Online bashing seems to be the name of the game Duck. Every site has people that do it for no good reason. Like they are bored or something. Have you ever noticed that the worst critics are the people who never stick their necks out and make any calls or trades of their own? The just hammer away at anyone who is working at the craft of understanding technical’s and without any good arguments against what you say just call names and mock. Maybe its human nature. Those kinds of people are what we call they “eaters”. They take and take and they almost never offer nothing of value in return but are especially happy to criticize and mock the good work of real technicians.
Yeah online bashing needs zero courage and that is why it is so popular.
One thing though you gotta give Gary….he is very tolerant of opposing views. At least he lets people post different stuff as opposed to many who will just block people who say something different than their views.
Excellent observation Duck. Gary is amazingly tolerant and even tempered given some of the criticisms that get dished out here. It is why I have become of fan of his.
You guys are both completely on point. In general, if I don’t post a forecast or trading call, I will never “bash” someone who does. It really is complete hypocrisy and very cowardly. Gary has had his up’s and down’s lately, but I truly believe that he has shown the positive traits of someone who can combine good analysis with good trading. It’s very easy to get taken out of this game by emotional decisions (and let’s face it the markets facilitate this sort of behavior now more than ever before).
Haha. I read your comment about online bashing needing zero courage, and then I scroll down to see your arrogant reply to my perfectly valid observation. It’s not my fault if you are unable to understand what my point was.
NO actually I do follow what you are saying. It is just that for 5 years everyone who lost money in Gold blames everyone but themselves. At SOME point after a decade of saying the same retarded thing….you gotta say something about it. Call it online bashing or if you would like…I will give you my phone number ans say the same thing.
It is perfectly clear to me and it appears that the collective gold community has a low double digit IQ.
So I will try once more with you.
1) The total above ground Gold matters for Gold…not annual production because all ever mined gold exists. So talking about annual production right away you know he has no clue.
2) For every SHORT who bought on margin….is a hedge fund long who bought on Margin. There is no other way.
3) His numbers are completely wrong. HIs 2 year production number is also wrong. He is using total volume. He is using day traders into total numbers. That has nothing to do with how much was dumped.
4) How on the planet does he know if the dump was by a Long closing his position or a short initiating a new position? I bet you my silence that the next to next CFTC report shows Specs closing their long positions.THAT was the dump.
Yeah, that could be a buy point for a bounce/ mini rally. We need to examine where that bounce takes us before concluding that the decline will not resume.
Hi Duck,
I have been stuck in if gold is still in bull market? Appreciate your thoughts.
You know what is crazy? The day of the election I wrote in that I have an indicator that was warning of a major gold sell off. That was an honest post incidentally as I do have such an indicator that told me to get short. Then on election night what happened was gold soared and you can hardly imagine how discouraged I felt at that time. I mean, it was like a huge punch in the gut because I had made my bet accordingly and was getting destroyed on that trade. It sure didn’t help that the poster named Aubang Jang 22 (or whatever the hell his name is) was mocking me. But facts were facts and that night I looked to be stupidly wrong. But look what has happened since. Like I said, this is nuts. The indicator is proprietary so I won’t bother with details but that sucker was bang on the money in spite of the election and gold’s anomalous spike higher. I am still holding bear trades like JDST and making decent coin today again. So you guys smart asses like Slep and Bang Jang might want to think twice next time I warn a crash in gold is coming. If this indicator turns out to be consistent then I have made a technical breakthrough. At least for me personally. And that’s why its secret. Tell even one person and a few months later it does not work anymore.
Oh yeah, the twits handle was anjing bau 22. Had to look it up to refresh my memory. Said that Goldman might hire me in a mocking tone. Hey Bang-Jang!! Maybe Goldman will hire me. I picked off this decline brilliantly if I must say so. Even Goldman did not do that.
Pedestrian: Is your indicator in any way related to flipping a coin? Did you know that you can get runs of being right 10 times or more if you flip a coin endlessly for just a few days?
Of course Don. But no, this is not a coin flip. And I am being dead serious. Not sure why that bothered some posters because it was not bragging or anything. Just me taking some pleasure in a small discovery. Anyone who watches marekets long enough generally develops his own method and I suppose I am no different. Its nothing much anyway, just a sequence that needs to be followed and if the pieces line up correctly I get the right results. Did you know though that the odds of any given trade are exactly 50/50 as to whether the market goes up or down and yet miraculously more than 85% of traders get it wrong? Well that’s were a good indicator comes in handy. It will keep you on the right side of the direction even if it cannot tell you exactly how far momentum might take you. Anyway, enough said about this. Its no trumpet thing so no party is being called and I take no pleasure in delivering bad news either because I am a gold bull.
DUST and JDST have both turn impulsively bullish. The declines are not over yet as so many prior peaks have been exceeded on their charts. The Old Turkeys might be rightly a little uncomfortable at this stage. But one thing I agree with Gary about is that selling in and out of this kind of market can be the worst mistake. We are closing in on a bottom in the coming days so this is probably the worst time to dump positions in fear. Just an opinion of course but with such heavy losses already on the books it will probably pay better to just wait for the predictable bounce. And it will come so try not to lose heart if your trades are underwater right now.
Is that a helpful comment?
Duck interesting that you too see a 4 to 7 day decline like Gary.
Would this be starting from the peak election night?
Yeah from there.
As I have said above…too many conflicting things going on…making it harder to get an accurate read.
Back at first of the year, Gary, was in his glory with gold upshot, going to the moon. Hold forever. Only fools trade in and out. Folks feared the market to go into abyss, touting the preservation of capital rather than the return on capital, blah blah blah
Now, the opposite. New gurus all over the place. Gold tun around imminent, stocks to rise after brief dip.
Fact is, this will end badly. Trump will be the next hoover, who had a blow off top in the markets within weeks of coming to office only to see it crash.
Hoover came into office and markets rallied hard only to collapse weeks later into the abyss. What’s worse, Trump lacks intellect. He speaks and acts like a bully with a grade school mentality, and will react to every criticism tossed his way. His policies will waiver much like a drunken sailor finding his way back home.
This will be evident soon after he actually has to deal with implementing change, chiefly on immigration his hallmark. If he feels offended by current street rallies over anticipate actions, imagine how he will react to reactions to his promised immigration policies. His tax cuts will spur market rallies, but his own party will hold him back on the horrendous cost of that coupled with infrastructure spending. His best allies ironically will be the democrats on that one. This will all be in the midst of Nixon era revolts in the streets by millenials and minorities
According Zerohedge, “someone” dumped 10 billion dollars worth of gold futures on the market. That sounds like central bank action. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-11/gold-crashes-5-month-lows-someone-dumps-over-10-billion-bond-market-holiday
You know if zerohedge ran a hedge fund it’s returns over the past 7 years would include multiple total wipeouts.
They missed the whole 250% rally from the 2009 low, constantly criticizing the central banks.
So now the “dump” is probably a speculator bailing on hos long position and you will see that in the next CFTC report as positions are reduced.
Just three days ago, gold futures were nearly a thousand dollars higher (right after the election). Who ever sold futures at those prices are making a killing now. Manipulation anyone?
The interesting thing (not making this up in hindsight) is that all of the stock indicies (save NQ) had their cycle low due on 11/8 +/- 1TD. Pretty much all of the cycle guys have been focused on that 95 TD cycle. It nailed the Feb 11 and June 27 lows, so it’s been obvious to many for quite awhile. Of course, when something is anticipated, the market has to do the unexpected and flush many weak hands out (hence the election night “vacuum”). I believe that using the Brexit analog was appropriate, but we’re seeing this time around that Russell leads, Nasdaq lags and the metals have completely done a 180 in the other direction.
Plus I’m sure others would agree that this is one of the most ragged cycle lows in recent memory. Middle of the night, someone without 24hr data would never even know how much the market declined overnight.
I hope you meant “$100 higher” or I missed alot on election night 🙂
I stand corrected… $100 higher … typo error
🙂
For you silver watchers: DSLV has only just slightly exceed its 100 EMA on its trip North so its going to be worth watching in the next few trading sessions to see if it goes decisively above that and heads to the 200 or falls back at this resistance level.
For NUGT holders: God bless you if you held this long. What a destruction derby that chart has become. Just curious but did anyone on this site predict it would fall almost back to the January lows where it began?
For the HUI: It has plunged waaaay below the 20 week EMA to point that almost always signals a bounce back. And I bet that is exactly what will happen. Possibly as early as tonight because the divergence is just too great right now. On that note, I am going to unload my bear positions at the next best opportunity today. No point waiting to have the market take the money off the table for me.
I prefer to do that myself.
I never predict targets for 3x funds because of how they operate.
You can wipe out the entire fund with a 33.33% intra day loss.
Also their damn decay makes them best used for short positions rather than long.
Same goes for me as a rule. But I still cannot help myself when there is a lot of market activity to go and check to see if there is a confirming signal. Often enough these things are also hitting important technical levels. I know some people will swear the information is useless but so far they work for me so I give it the few seconds extra and open the charts for a look.
As an aside Duck, you are doing some pretty good work here. I appreciate the effort. In the last few weeks I have discovered there are a few really sharp guys on this site. Well worth my time. Especially when the perspective of other people is lining up with my own technical outlook even though methods differ.
Oh thanks. I appreciate you and others sharing ideas here as well.
People use different methods and when they line up….usually they work well. Same reason I come here.
I focus on relative valuation between sectors and COT report turning points and I cannot understand cycles as they seem so subjective. But clearly there are people who make good money with that.
That is definitely interesting to me. I never would have thought to take that approach and yet your results speak for themselves from what I have read. My own passion lately is Sine waves and modifications to Gann’s work that I always thought had merit but suffered from too many restrictive rules. My results are not always right but the testing has taken me down a few roads that led to some pretty interesting observations. Its a great hobby. Now I just need it to start paying off consistently!
I do actually have NUGT and am still holding on. 🙂
I admire your conviction. Looks like you might get some kind of reprieve in the not too distant future.
Thanks Pedestrian. I needed to hear that. I know it’s only a matter of time but geeze… starting to sweat over here! Gary called a bottom after the last ‘blood bath’ (~1250) but we had another drop down, still above what you guys called would be the bottom. Guess we’ll see?
Ok gents.
My question now is: Where do we go from here? If this is indeed a ‘technical selloff’, what will happen next? Are we set up for a bounce of the 50% fibonacci mark (~$1208)? Edelson’s model seems to think so.
If silver fails cycles are possibly inverted with below $1100 gold in the cards (potential)
Wow! This is a weird market.
Looking at the S & P and Nasdaq would anyone have guessed that small caps are up a whopping 2.2% today? IWM up 2.3%
Just got an alert from Ib about that.
Very, very unusual action here. But I think it is mega bullish.
Just remember what Gary said many many times, gold is in a new bull market and it doesn’t matter where you buy, you will make money so long as you don’t sell when things are looking rough.
That will be proven incorrect if you buy a 3X leveraged fund near the top.
NUGT and JNUG are demonstrating just how dangerous they are to one’s portfolio. With the exception of UGAZ and UVXY, they have the highest rate of decay of all leveraged funds.
Silver wheaton is down from $25 to $18 in less than 2 days worth of trading hours.
28% loss from the intraday high on November 9th. That is brutal.
My stomach hurts just from contemplating that volatility even if I was on the right side on the short PMs trade.
What did the Klingon say after the savage decline in Gold stocks?
Holy Christmas! We are near a 50 dollar one-day gold decline. Been awhile since we have seen any drop this bitter magnitude. I am thanking the stars I was on the short side but I really feel for anyone who has been holding long positions. I have been there and I know what it feels like.
In a word, awful.
I dont know but this is gonna be good 😀
Perhaps today is a good day to BUY!
Kapla!! Never forget the 10th rule of acquisition my friend. Greed is Eternal… and perhaps the 22nd rule: Wise men can hear profit in the wind.
Ha…a well versed trekkie :).
Kapla to you too friend.
NOw I am going to take a nap and dream of Seven of Mine 🙂
The more things change the more they stay the same. Trump says he is going to drain the swamp but he’s filling his cabinet with the crooks from the swamp. Wanted to puke when I read he wanted Jamie Dimon as Treasury Secretary. He’ll pick someone for JPM or GS and how is that supposed to end the corruption in PMs?
If you’ve been in PMs since January you’re still up but that doesn’t make me feel better watching a good chunk of the gains in 2016 disappear so quickly and so close to the holiday season when we’re all getting ready to feel merry and cheery.
I guess it’s another year gone and we’re staying saying next year will be when PMs break the cartel manipulation. Not sure I believe this anymore but if you give up hope you may as well be dead.
F gold!!!!!!! Worst investment even if it goes up from here. Anything that goes from 12 to 32 then down to 20 is not an investment. Its a trading vehicle at best. Garbage
to those who are short the metals, good for you. For those who are long…I hope you’re not hurting too much. we will all live to trade another day. maybe this decline in the metals will, eventually, give us all a terrific entry point for a nice bull run. Cheers, and everyone remember to hug their significant other (or pet) often. And THANK A VET.
Well my cat just got a hug care of you Goldi. He is always feeling a little ignored when I am punching out charts on the laptop.
About gold miners there is a little more bad news today. I mentioned two weeks back that a bearish crossover of the 200 weekly SMA and 200 weekly EMA was in the works and it has now arrived for GDX, GDXJ, HUI, NUGT, JNUG, USLV, GLD, IAU, and SGOL. The outlook is quite negative on that basis alone.
Strangely, the one chart that does not confirm is one of the oldest indexes on gold miners, GLDX.
On the other side of the coin, there is bullish crossovers happening on almost all the inverse gold, silver and miner ETF’s. So we could have some large sustained losses coming for the bulls in the next while if these hold up.
Personally I have been in the camp that believed when Yen hit its 200 that we would have a major reversal but that might be invalidated when the day arrives if Yen plunges through the bottom. It means the Yen might go on to retest its lows from last December and by implication tells us gold and silver are going all the way back to their old bottoms. OUCH!
Looking at the weekly charts, it could happen. Long side of the pm sector looks very scary to me. I would not be surprised if a deeper correction were to occur.
It would seem a trending move could be just starting in the inverse etfs of the pm sector. Will change stance if required by price.
GL to all here who made money. I dont think will ever recoup my losses. I was in JNUG and lost about
50% so far and going down more
ETF’s can be death Robert. But there are ways to recover quickly from losses. For example, had you bought LABU a few days back you already saw a 100% return. You might want to look around at what has bottomed and is ready to fly in the next while. There is always something if you have time to look. Buy that instead and kiss those ETF devils good bye.
I realize. No more powder so this looks like the end for me unless a miracle. Thanks for the advice but lesson I learn now is never to trade leverage etf again. Maybe futures but anything with decay stay away from. Impossible to win or recoup when there is decay
No one has become successful without blowing out an account or two.
Learn from it and come back stronger.
Keep that chin up.
You bet. I don’t think I know a single person who succeeded at this without first having had the market smash their brains into the pavement. More than once usually!
Back to gold for a moment. It needs to hold the May 31st 2016 closing low at this point or it could be lights out for the rest of the year. That number is 1212.10 and we came damned close to hitting that today.
Been waiting 4 years for the gold bull to return, another year isn’t going to kill me….even though it feels like it will. I’m just hoping the bottom in Dec15/Jan16 was “the” bottom and not just another bear market rally. Never held an investment before where every damn thing positive or negative is seen as an opportunity to smash the metals. A Trump victory was supposed to be positive and the knee jerk reaction up over night was the correct one. But the powers that be are capable of anything and in an environment like that it’s better to be on their side than on the opposite side.
Trump needs to follow through and drain the swamp or he’ll be just another puppet of the system.
Ok Bought 1,000 SLW for a short term trade. That fracking TLT is now $5 below its weekly lower bollinger.
That should go up and induce some counter trend in Gold.
@$17.81
I would say this is near a bottom, feeling very depressed even hopeless. Account already almost blown so nothing left to lose. Im holding till gold 1380-1400 again sometime next year
Garry has made some nice calls in the past. However, when someone uses a picture of gold bars for his walpaper, it hard to objective:). Many people inlcuding Garry have been calling the death of the Dollar. The Quarterly chart, speaks loud and clear. The US Dollar will most likely retest – at least – the 121 level. Regarding Gold, the critical week will be the week of 21 November. The July high revealed fantastic price and time symmetry. If Gold behaves accordingly, then a retest of the 2015 low is highly likeley, while a 3-digit Gols scenario is still on the table.
Over the last few weeks I have mentioned $1,220 on gold at least 5 times. It is the best place for bulls to mount a good rally. I have a small long position in Slw but I am not too sure how things will go.
I think you’re absolutely correct, and Gary has mentioned $1,220 as well. That should be the low. If not, it should come on Monday. Silver bottomed on 10/7 @ $17.115 basis Dec. and today @ $17.17. So, it looks like to me that silver bottomed first and then gold. I could go into my reasons why I think this, but it would take too much time, and it involves EWT, wave counts, left and right translations, time periods, wavelengths, RSICrossovers, etc. But, I think this correction is finally over, and a new wave up should begin next week. Fingers crossed.
On a weekly basis we just saw the heaviest negative volumes on gold seen in the past six years. It was notable volume. I kind of doubt that will be followed up with a big spike higher since down weeks tend to cluster together (as do up weeks) and this is only the first down week in the past four. Even if we do see a Monday bounce I suspect it will be short lived. Neither weekly Stoch’s or MACD look very bullish to me and sentiment and RSI readings are still too high although those will change by next week no doubt.
1220ish was already reached if that doesn’t hold then could go lower but downside risk is lower than upside risk.
Maybe. Look at the HUI on a one year chart though. The symmetry of the left side to the right side relative to the absolute peak is remarkable and it is a picture of a gigantic head and shoulders pattern. That is one pattern that gives me doubts about anything other than short term trades at this point. Especially given that if the pattern continues the chart will just roll over and decline into a waterfall over the course of the next few months after this next bounce. The miners look screwed every which way to Wednesday at this point.
Here is a guy who gets it. And he has a chart very similar to the HUI in my point above.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=387015
Unless that pattern changes soon we are going to see mining stock in a death spiral right back to the January bottom. No heroics here folks. Unless you are absolutely certain of your charts then buying the dip is going to be a real hazard to your financial health.
Just look at the image above and take in the implications of how both halves (the rise and the fall) mirror each other from the peak which is the center point. So does this mean an equity bull is about to start and drain the gold mine shares of interest? Or does it imply ALL stocks could hit an air pocket together during the next two months?
My thinking similar.
With all due respect, there is absolutely nothing that says the symmetry you describe has to play out. In fact, if symmetry like that played out every time there would never be such a thing as “new highs”.
The left side of that chart is the bull market, the right side of centre is the correction.
Having said that, I don’t underestimate the criminal power of JPM. At the same time as this is happening though, the spread between this insanity at the Comex and the Shanghai [PHYSICAL] Gold Exchange is reaching levels where traders are buying cheap paper gold at the Comex, taking delivery, and selling the physical for higher prices at the SGE. If this keeps up the Comex will literally be drained.
Listen to Andrew McGuire explains it. Today alone, on the Comex there were 6,800 TONS of gold sold in a single day. That’s more gold than is mined on the entire planet in TWO YEARS. Clearly this hammering cannot continue. Mathematically, it just cannot happen or Comex will go bankrupt. Unless they are sitting on a secret hoard of 100,000 tones of physical bars hidden in the Grand Canyon.
Sorry, here is the link to Andrew McGuire’s interview with Eric King:
http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-paper-gold-market-trades-6800-tonnes/
Oh gosh not another conspiracy theorist.You do know that the total above ground gold is around 180,000 metric tons, right?
So that is just 4 % of total above ground supply.
ANd if I had a $ for every time that idiot and the other idiot Eric King said Gold was being manipulated….I could retire about now.
Of course you are correct AlbertaRocks. There is never a guarantee of anything in markets and the fact that the charts display an almost perfect balance on the left and right sides (a mirror) does not prove that pattern will keep going and fulfill itself.
It is probabilities that are our warning though. So if the pattern does not change, IE, break out to the upside and invalidate what is already obvious then we may expect the worst is yet to come.
There is hope of course. Are you aware that we are almost at the 50% retrace level of golds entire move for 2016? To me that is a really important number and one, if breached, could lead to a negative outcome. Alternatively if we see a strong bounce from there that may be the signal that these declines have ended.
The 50% retrace level is 1212 dollars give or take depending on whether you use closing or intraday numbers for your calculations. There is a critical support level at the June low which also just happens to be 1212 dollars.
So I would say keep a close eye on that level next week. We came within a few dollars of hitting it on Friday and my instincts tell me we will bounce initially but that there will be several tests of that number before we get a final decision.
A break down below it and the chart has turned extremely negative in my way of charting.
My apologies, we are near the 50% retracement level of the entire move since the lows in December 2015. I incorrectly said the retrace of the 2016 rise but that is obviously a different number.
AlbertaRocks, people say that the COMEX puts up a ton of roadblocks from taking delivery and force cash settlement. People have been talking about the COMEX being drained for several years and it never happens. Respectfully, there may have to be a different catalyst to prevent the paper smashing.
Wow, what a crash. Don and Robert are examples of people who listens to Gary blindly. What you never lose a money even if u buy high during a bull market. Guys, maybe this big rally is over, and decline resumes??? You think Gary is definitely right about this being the super bull?
Gary drew fib downside targets. But u mean the decline will stop at 61.8%, then bull resumes? No!!! It could still make new lows. Moral of story, when it’s time to cut, cut first. You can always buy back later. Bcos the bear could resume
If this is a test of wills then I imagine most gold bugs will fail the test. It’s not easy holding through something like this. Literally weeks if not months of gains gone in a matter of 3 days. And no guaranty the pull back is over. Hands down the worst sector to be long in over the past 4 years. It’s actually pretty amazing watching the vice grip of manipulation smash PMs at will. Not even Trump can fix this. We’ve had what was considered two black swan events with Brexit and Trump many believed would cause PMs to skyrocket. We’re actually lower today than before the Brexit announcement. God help us please.
Wow! I see new things! Something I cannot believe my eyes and which 90% of people would disagree: MAY HOSTED A SHORTENED 3-YEAR CYCLE OF USD!!!
With Trump at power and with people stii entrenched in the big dollar bear, this is what it is: WE ARE EARLY IN THE NEW 3-YEAR CYCLE SO THAT USD IS STILL…LOW!
short-term implications:
1) USX next week at 99.90 which will be ICH
2) gold and miners to host their YCL next week alongside treasuries (not in Dec)
3) USX rolls over next week into intermediary cycle decline while gold starts shining big
4) stocks fall towards YCL till early DEC as USX sets its ICL at the same time
5) USX starts a new IC in December and in January it breaks to higher ground above 100.72 set in MAR2015 (this will be a tantalizing period for gold)
6) spring will put a top to USX’ current yearly cycle and will roll over helping gold advance above 1400.
Conclusions:
– just as Chris says, forget about gold. It will be worth trading next week through December and in spring alone while going range-bound in the rest of the winter, JAN-FEB 2017.
– stocks and, again as Chris says, industrial commodities will be worth being in alongside USX after 3 weeks from now.
– GET READY TO BUY GOLD AND TREASURIES NEXT WEEK AS YOU SEE USX AT 99.90 and gold at 1182!
Thanks Sir Alex!
How was the game?
Hi Alex,
I joined SMT in June this year and followed a first call in PM early Sept. And suffered a huge huge loss of my account. I have been stuck in if gold is still in baby bull market, appreciate your thoughts.
There is no certainty that decline will stop at 61.8% fib level. It may or may not. It may bounce and make a lower low or do a complete retrace. Who knows? Dust seems to begin a trending phase, very worrisome for longs. This is just week one, dust making a new high and weekly ma turning up, at the starting gate of a new potential uptrend. If we get a bounce, dust could pull back some and power up to a level which none of us can imagine at this time. It is best not to get locked up into a particular scenario and take it one day/one week at a time.
Preservation of capital is top priority. The market was there yesterday, it is here today, it will be there tomorrow. Past performance is no guarantee of future accuracy.
Gary i like your charts but you are wrong.
We are going much lower: 1000 at least.
Look at bonds crashing gary.
Fed will intervine.
Contrary to popular believe gold will rally then.
Its preping now to be bought lower.
Once it reaches its trendline trumpeconomics will hammer it again.
It will keep on repeating till the fed losses control.
When that happens the big gold bull market starts not sooner.
Any thoughts on platinum?
It’s an absolute critical metal in deficit, but the markets don’t care anyway. I bought positions on Friday for an average of 965 / oz.
Looking back at this week I am actually thinking about getting out of the stock market forever and ever.
Nobody has a real clue. Sometimes they are right and make huge money, then they are wrong like Gary.
It is better to build a business.
Gold could be in a range of $1200, to $1400 over the next 2 years. Why? Bcos the banks just have a monster breakout. Gold tends to underperform when banks have huge rallies. For banks, this breakout is huge. So, just trade gold. Its time will come. Only much later.
Gold was in 1400 to 1200 from 2012 to 2015. 2016 broke down. So the next 2 years, 1200 to 1400, forming a right shoulder? WHo knows.
David, good morning!
Romania lost 🙁 score 0-3 for Poland.
When I returned home, everybody was sleeping but I was still charged, had to do something, and started to look into the markets, things crystalized for me and I put them in my post above.
I was confident USD would go high in the then unlikely event of a Trump-win because, as I wrote last week, I can easily bet on a more accelerated process of FED hykes.
If, he keeps most of his promises, as VICTOR has very well pointed out, then we have an extra reason.
And the best reason of all for a USX bull market is the prevalent bearishness, seeing the current growth as a temporary whim of the Market.
As Gary points out, USX is to fall in its intermediary cycle next week, but that will not be the resumption of the Big Bear but rather the REQUISITE COLLING OF THE GREEN ASSET BEFORE SURGING TO NEW HEIGHTS.
Alex, the Nasdaq was more or less saved by NVIDIA. Now, what do You think? Is it still going down?
Also, what do You opine on platinum? I bought on Friday for a good average price I think. But I don’t know if the markets will let it go up. It is still fighting gold’s drag and is below the short and long term averages.
That platinum goes down like that although it is a critical metal in deficit proves to me that this small market is under control of someone.
By the way, I don’t understand why people here talk about gold all the time only. Let’s face it…gold just has value because of perception. We dig it out and dig more wholes or build vaults to put it into them. Then we say, “Wow we are rich” because we got so much of that stuff in there. I feel humans are fools.
Amante, I do not know anything about platinum, sorry!
For me it is just stocks, treasuries, gold and real estate.
NASDAQ to go down next week through the next 3 😉
Maybe I can make a comment on platinum Amantede.
Platinum had recently looked like it was breaking out of its falling trend line. But on election night it suddenly spiked up and did what we were not expecting. It failed right near its 50% retracement level of this years move higher and was unable to exceed that key region meaning it has now become resistance.
Since then it has crashed back another 85 dollars or so and breached its .618 Fib level without yet hitting the prior October low. There are a few good support levels between here and the bottom but my analysis of platinum is that it will now make a 100% retrace of entire 2016 year.
Buying now is just trying to catch a falling knife.
Thanks pedestrian. Well, I hope I will time the bounce next week right to get out without hurting my account.
Man, I really got a trading vehicle that makes safe money every time. 11 succesful trades sequentally. Last trade I made 2 days ago. But You make only little money. Then I came here after this huge party in precious metals this year and wanted a bigger part of the cake.
Let me tell You, as soon as You become greedy, You may lose it all. And it distracts You every day. I wasted several hours this week and last week.
If I am strong-willed enough, I will get out of everything on Monday and restart focusing a 100 % on our business and my crap-trading-technique that only makes little each time without headaches.
After all that is what builds Your fortune, hard work!
You don’t become rich on the stock market unless You are rich already.
What is the other trading vehicle you use if its OK to ask?
Hi Alex,
Any thoughts about gold future becos I have been stuck in if gold is still in bull market?
Thx!
Cheers 🍻 Alex!
Pedestrian, I trade the VIX-Futures. It is tricky, but I even turned out on top after the spell of superlow volatility this year. But You have to find an option that is not bound to decay at a given date. I have been studying the VIX for over a year. Just buy when it is really low and choose good position sizing, start small and stay small to avoid headaches, unless the spot-vix gets to 11, then You can get in bigtime. Never get greedy and be ready to accept gains of just 30 bucks. My highest was 500. You have to alter the getting-rich mentallity a hundred 100 %. Look at Your minuscule gains just as an additional plus and be happy with it. Never trade nor invest for a living! But study the VIX-Futures and theunderlying options first extensively bevore You get in. Watch it every day for a year to get a feeling.
There is nothing wrong with small gains in my books. Beats the hell out of losses that’s for sure!
For this time of the year You can look for entry when the immediate VIX-FUTURES go below 15,5 and spot-VIX below 14. We are there. But remember that the first position is no bigger than 400 bucks or lower depending on how much You pay for Your broker. And remember that the option may not have a decay date. If we don’t see a crash, I think the VIX might go a bit lower over the next weeks, which would be perfect.
Better 300 or lower. Look for the next small position when front month VIX-FUTURES go to 15 or lower. It really depends on market action over the next days.
This is just a theoretical tip. Look how my trading suggestion would work first, unless You want to take the risk.
OK. Thanks Amantede.
Pedestrian. Definitely check it out first before trading. And then play around with the position sizes over a year or at least 6 months. You have to get a feel for the markets and how the VIX behaves. I said I would only use 300 in the positions because I don’t want to be the reason for You losing money. 300 is actually too small a size. My positions are a bit bigger, but just a bit.
Seems like everyone on this blog site is bearish on the PMs. That’s a good thing for a bull. I feel quite comfortable adding to my long positions. I made a bundle on a big short TLT position ( covered now) that I began shorting when the consensus was for interest rates to continue declining. I remain bearish on the stock market and love the rallies as I can add to my bearish positions at even better prices. After years of a bull market, extreme movements almost always end in the downward direction. The retail crowd is in play, not the smart money. It may take a while to play out but this is the time to be bearish on stocks, when prices are far to high.
http://www.marketslant.com/articles/enough-enough-stop-your-whining-gold-market-not-manipulated
Here is good numerical analysis of how the numbers thrown our by Eric King and Andrew Macquire and Chroniclly wrong and pretty much manure.
Just look at the commitment of traders …it will tell you what really happened. And for F’s sake stop complaining. I for one love the fact that they keep an inflation hedge cheap for me…if they do that.
AmantedeTeclas: If I understand you correctly, you are buying options on VIX futures . I am assuming you are referring to VXX since one cannot invest in the VIX index directly. So, not only are you fighting the substantial decay of an option, but that option is on an futures index that has it’s own built in extreme decay. I would say that it is next to impossible to come out a winner over the long term, given the headwinds you are faced with. That said, if you do manage to make money over a two year or longer period, then you are some kind of investing genius who should be writing a book.
I have made a good deal of money selling naked calls on vxx after it spikes when the decay works in your favour. But yeah a long call on that nasty index is asking for punishment.
Duck: Smart to sell the calls. I have also sold call but keep the position relatively small in case of a sudden spike. A big position could put a guy underwater very quickly in the event of a market crash.
True. It is free money as the decay always works but I keep it really small like you said as it can get very nasty. It helps that I sell after huge spikes. Couple of times I landed up short the vxx but made money within a couple of months.
Hey Alex I totally agree USX is going much higher after it’s ICL….Question for you is if you buy gold at 1182 into December how long do you hold it for ? Sell before FOMC meeting ? Fomc rate decision be the ICL for the US dollar and it resumes its upwards projectors? You have a Facebook account too many Alexandru Popovici …..have something with trader on it . Thanks
Hello, Daver!
I do not have a FB account, nor a smartphone. I have a tab though 🙂
I am pretty old-fashioned and traditionalist.
Yes, I will buy gold next week at above 1182 (forecasts are forecasts, trading frameworks but I do not directly trade on them but on signals, so that most likely the actual trade will be arround 1200 after hitting 1182).
I plan on holding it until I see USX charting its ICL at the end of NOV/beginning of DEC.
I will dump it then and keep my cash dry for mounting back on stocks after they chart their YCL.
Thanks … you have great insight. You think US dollar will have a ICL in 2 or 3 weeks time? Let us know when you think it has bottomed. Great stuff.
I thank you too, Dave!
Yes, I think USX’s ICL will be in 2-3w, arround the next jobs report – from here on the forecast is not that intricate anymore, it’s getting back pretty much standard (FOMCs and NFPs catering turning points).
Very hard to predict downside targets for nugt and jnug. Likely, these etfs may experience a 10:1 reverse split at the next intermediate low. Rough downside targets: nugt, around $3 and jnug, around $2, worst case scenario. Let us hope for a better outcome. It is important to stay away from them until a reverse split occurs and use them only with a small % of capital for diversification. Fractional shares arising from a reverse split are redeemable in cash from one’s broker. Cheers.
Jnug 5.94 next week
The Swedish elliott waver roasan turned bearish on Gold&Silver expecting new lows coming in 2017. A rally in fake assets like financials-banks, a crash in real assets like Silver -8% on Friday. All this smells funny imo. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if precious metals bounce back next week. This is NOT a B-top in Gold&Silver.
Some folks over on Slope website, trashing Gary’s gold calls.