161 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – NASDAQ

  1. happycamper515

    Has anyone wondered where would gold be today if Clinton won the election? HIgher, lower, or same?

    1. stockpick

      Why do you want to think about a hypothetical scenario?

      Since you asked – it will be where it is today. …Gold is going lower than $1200 level and will take the stops out.

        1. Pedestrian

          I suspect so too but I liked this bottom on gold and silver enough (silver at .618) that I, legged in to it anyway just in case. I don’t know about anyone else but I just hate that Old Turkey strategy. It only suits people who don’t have the time, patience or intelligence to monitor their trades. And if you follow it you always have the risk of going so deep into the red you sell at rotten losses anyway since human nature does not end just because you embraced a buy and hold philosophy. I mean, sure its a great idea for people whose first love is watching daytime soap operas and the sports network twenty -four seven but if you are a trader the idea is laughable. I can’t even give it serious consideration. It’s like, why would I even consider that?

          1. TraderPete

            The OTS is a great strategy for investors or other people who want to buy the physical metal for insurance purposes, but not futures traders. Investors don’t have to monitor the markets on a daily basis like traders do. Investors have a longer timeline.

          2. Pedestrian

            Yes and the idea suffers from one big flaw I cannot stomach.

            What if you are wrong in your basic belief? What if the bull is not a bull at all. And lets face it, after a 62% decline in silver, a 50% decline in gold and a 70% crash in platinum we all have some doubts. In that light was it not sensible to have taken some chips off the table when the top was signaled if for no other reason than to reduce risk on the downside?

            I don’t buy the tax implications as a rationale either. What do I care if I make more money by a trading strategy and have to pay more tax in the process? Do I really need a capital loss if I was wrong? Not to be too much of a dick about this or anything but Old Turkey is too much like digging into a foxhole during a war and just hoping a mortar doesn’t land on your little cave.

  2. TraderPete

    It seems to me that ETM is more accurate than EWT.

    On another note. Trump as President doesn’t really change anything. The Country is still on the road to perdition as is the rest of the world.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yup, we were going to hell before. Now we are just going there with different leadership. Enjoy the ride.

  3. Pedestrian

    Oh, almost forgot my post idea for today. For anyone who missed that double on Labu that rode in like a horse on fire you may have a second chance to buy it. We are almost on the 200 week line right now and probably the first corrective decline will happen quickly if its going to happen at all. This one still looks like a terrific bet for upside potential.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    DON, good morning!
    You asked me why “all other [than gold] commodities down” through the next weeks ? you also expressed concern about Treasuries fall.

    I will give you 3 top reasons, the first two reasons are technical and the other is psychiatry-related:
    1) gold bottomed yesterday (YCL=1211 @ 50% sharp retrace) and miners too –> gold is a leader and this implies that the other commodities have yet to see their bottoms (YCLs).
    2) offensive stocks have NOT BOTTOMED YET –> they (NASD, XLF, $TRAN, SOXX) are due for a steep correction down in their YCL and this move to start soon in its earnest will take down industrial commodities (copper, oil, palladium, possibly also silver and palladium unless these PMs to be propped by gold).
    3) INFLATIONARY PERIOD RESTARTED ON JULY 11, 2016, It has shown its pluck but before treasuries and commodities breaking major long-term moving averages treasury bears and industrial commodities bulls must be scorched –> STEEP FALL OF THESE COMMODITIES AND A VIOLENT SURGE OF TREASURIES ARE THE REQUISITES TO SET THE RED CARPET FOR THE INFLATIONARY “LADY”.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    BIG PIECE OF ADVICE for those of you being loaded with mortgages: use this period of scorching treasury bears (from 2nd part of yesterday’s session till January) TO CONTRACT VANILLA INTEREST SWAPS ON YOUR LOANS, so that you can hedge your loans against interests to rise.

    PS: despite inflation, gold will be a laggard; it will have times of trending but most of the time will rise slowly in range-bounds –> gold will be the most boring of all assets. Gold can rise quickly only if expectations of uncontrolled inflation emerge, which is unlikely.
    TRUMP’s mix of Keynesian and liberal measures to stimulate the economy will not bring in such expectations –> FED will be there to hike rates (hence the USD powerhouse to emerge).

    1. duckwhorocks1

      A,
      The biggest driver of gold is not inflation but real inflation adjusted yields in my opinion. So Gold lags inflation when real yields rise and outperforms when real yields fall.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    swing lows in gold and treasuries!

    on the other hand, this will be a boring day: USX and USD currency pairs will produce haramis while gold and miners will be range-bound, possibly closing slightly lower than yesterday’s close.
    The real moves will kick tomorrow!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      that nail that has to be broken, USDJPY @ 108.05 I was talking about last evening, is holding all markets prisoner today in tranquility.
      But a day like this is necessary, it is the time required to rust all nails and cut all hinges before THE SCORCH.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    Best stocks to short = energy stocks.
    I’ll take advantage by the tranquility today and buy some ERY today to complete my short stocks position.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    Slight change of optics on stock: early DEC will host a HCL not the YCL.
    The final bottom in stocks and “the other” commodities to come in early JAN 2017.
    We will have a Christmas bounce through the latter half of the current daily cycle.
    But, let’s enjoy the former fall first.

    1. daverobson

      When do you see gold topping from this ycl .. first dcl will top at Fomc meeting? when will you sell your ugld ? Thanks

  9. Steffmeister

    Bo Polny thinks stocks will initiate it’s downturn tomorrow or the day after. According to his biblical analysis, Daniels timeline. I’ve got the feeling that a sharp decline is lurking for common stock.

    Gold&Silver, some EW “experts” think the B-top is in, I say hell no, we are going to visit 1450-1550, 25-30 Silver before a top and a major correction imo.

    Exiting times πŸ™‚

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Interesting, Rupp. The volume weighted average closing price during Q3 for ABX was 19.91 – he was confident about the company even at a price some +35% higher than the current πŸ™‚

  10. BeKind

    Thank you Alex! Love your analysis and commentary. You seem to have the hot hand. I hope it plays out well for you. Thank you very much for sharing what you are seeing!

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    DAVE ROBSON, do you see now the fight with pitchforks and knives of USX at 99.90 ??
    As you know, that was my expected target for life-and-death fight of bears and bulls and now, right before US trading open, IT HAS STARTED.
    I was answering you yesterday that USX reaching this target was the main (but not the only) reason for calling gold’s bottom at 1212 (afterwards it fell one more buck to 1211) – AND NOW YOU CAN ADMIRE THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS LEVEL …LIVE πŸ™‚

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …Copper, this raven of Lady Market, is delivering us Her whispers of the Scorch to come, hence it is foretelling us that USX bears will win the fight at 99.90 as well as the subsequent and final fight of USDJPY @108.05.
      This makes an additional insight that gold @ 1211 was YCL.

      1. Dday

        Looks like business as usual with the dollar, pullback during asian/EU trading, leading to a quick recovery towards US open. We will see.

    2. daverobson

      Yes thank you. Yen is also important .Have taken your final position in good yet ? What about your short position on the stock market ? If you think the sm is topping in early December Dec. my biggest question is when do you think the first daily cycle in gold will top ? During Fomc ? Is that when you will sell your UGL D? Thanks

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    DDAY, we needed this recovery at 99.90.
    Actually, if you zoom out what has been happening all yesterday and today of USX, you will see the magnet attraction towards 99.90 and then the subsequent coiling around it from larger to lower and lower sinusoids on this 99.90 axis.
    The chart is like a funnel with the smaller end to the right.

    All USX’ price action yesterday and today so far has been for this magic level, closer and closer.

    1. Dday

      I agree we could have a pillback on the dollar. But longer term Technically the setup looks identical to when the dollar rallied from 80-99(RSI, MACD, Stochastic and TSI on the daily and weekly). Also on the monthly the stretching back to 2003 chart looks like a perfect cup and handle, I would say target 120 over the next year.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    I also agree w/ you.
    As I was saying, the intermediary cycle decline about to start is the requisite correction before USX’ assault to higher ground – we are in a multi-decade USD bull.

    PS: 3 macro reports ultra-bullish for USD. This rise belongs to day traders and retailers; it is exhausting the USD and bakes it ready for decline to ICL.

    1. Dday

      Looks like we are in agreement. Just not sure how strong resistance is, looking vulnerable at the moment.

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    No, I have not pyramided my gold position to a full position yet.
    I am very happy that USDJPY has just made a higher high. I expect to have an ICH , so that I will add gold on a swing low, on USDJPY below today’s 107.78

  15. Dday

    That baby gold bull is looking very shaky. I think unless we get a rally to above $1400, it will be looked at as another(yes longer) bear rally.

  16. duckwhorocks1

    The dollar index is close to a final top. The driver lower will be a surprise to everyone. It will be because yields on bonds in the rest of the world will rise faster than those in the US.

  17. jdavid2

    Pedestrian, your posts on holding OTS suit my situation closely. The biggest mistake I have made is assuming SMT site market projections are accurate. I have watched thousands in gains turn to losses. A half hcl turned to a dcl then a icl then, uhoh, a ycl that just won’t stop falling. I have been reduced to trading in and out of DUST in an attempt to hold on until a turn around. The bigger risk has been holding rather than using simple risk management strategies and exiting unemotionally at almost obvious support breaks.

  18. monkeybiz

    Thank you, Alexandru, it is interesting to read your perspective.
    Would you recommend buying GOVT or TLT for a short term bounce trade? I do not buy 3x lev funds.

  19. Pedestrian

    So we are going to get retests of yesterdays lows on gold, silver and platinum by the looks of it. I take that as a good sign although the retest lows may not arrive until late in the day or even after hours as is often the case.

    If I had a dollar for every time I saw the stars line up on a late day trade only to find the next morning I got screwed because the stock broke a support or resistance line in overnight trading and now it was not such a great deal after all…

    Well you know the rest.

    One warning though. While JPY still looks supportive it is moving ahead of gold right now and has broken down a few pips from it 50 week simple moving average (.92) on a weekly chart. We should all be aware if Yen/USD fails by the end of Friday to exercise some caution buying metals going into the weekend. Since its a weekly reading its not more than an early warning sign for today but it will be a deal breaker if its still down end of the week.

    That’s about all I have to say today.

  20. Pedestrian

    OK, one more comment. LABU did reverse down precisely at its 200 week EMA. Beautiful baby!! So I will be looking at an entry one it consolidates in price again. This one is still a mover in my books and has only completed 3 waves up if I am counting correctly. Se we have a wave 4 decline and then a run to what? Maybe 60 or more. I will look at it again later.

    1. Dday

      Triple leveraged investments great if you are on the right side of the trade. I wish i had taken the plunge at 24(LABU).

  21. Pedestrian

    OK, one more comment. LABU did reverse down precisely at its 200 week EMA. Beautiful baby!! So I will be looking at an entry once it consolidates in price again. This one is still a mover in my books and has only completed 3 waves up if I am counting correctly. Se we have a wave 4 decline and then a run to what? Maybe 60 or more. I will look at it again later.

  22. Alexandru Popovici

    DAVE, swing high of XLF and swing low of TLT and of $USB πŸ˜‰
    I will add to full positions:
    – gold when GDX produces its swing low (gold produced it earlier today)
    – ERY when NASDAQ gets below 5241.

    Good luck!

    1. Robert

      Hi Alex, do you think it is possible for GDX to hit 27-30 by March-April timeframe? I need around that to break even or be in green

      1. Pedestrian

        Can I answer that Robert?

        Look, nobody knows OK? Nobody has a crystal ball. This is a game of probabilities and very few trades are guaranteed. The very smartest and most experienced traders can, and do, make epic costly blunders. Sometimes the high flyers even get wiped out to zero. If I had to answer your question about whether GDX would get to those numbers it would be with a huge caveat. The chart looks frankly TERRIBLE because both halves left and right continue to mirror each other leaving the impression price will drop all the way to where it began. I am however hopeful that JPY is telling us a bounce is at hand for metals and therefore the mirror pattern will be broken. Other than that I would be blowing smoke if I told you anything else. I have been at this long enough to not make any prediction with a 100% certainty never mind a price target higher when we are still in decline.

  23. briansmith672

    Alexandru, I do not think there is a marker correction coming like you predict. I think they just keep rotating in and out of sectors and keep the market going higher. Market looking pretty strong to me.
    Brian

  24. duckwhorocks1

    http://energyandgold.com/2016/11/14/moriarty-there-is-more-opportunity-today-than-there-has-ever-been-in-history/
    Bob Moriarty: I’ll tell you something that few have the guts to say. Gold is expensive relative to other commodities (such as oil, pigs, platinum, etc.) because gold is the #1 real asset. The real interest rate environment is what matters to gold, if inflation is 4% and interest rates are 3% that’s a very positive environment for gold. Gold can do well in a rising rate environment but it’s the real rate of interest that matters

    He has been reading my work πŸ™‚

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    Robert, I have no idea where GDX will be, I don’t trade it, just use it to filter my entries/exits in/out of gold.
    Sorry πŸ™

    1. daverobson

      Just added remains positions to Jnug made swing low….usdjpy… topping pattern …..I think we get confirmation in swing low gold by tomorrow ….

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    BRIAN, you will see in short time.

    ROBERT, my advice for you is:
    – to sell your current position of miners on DEC 1
    – to close your trading account
    – start reading trading literature. You go first with Chapter 6 of Van Tharp’s “Trading your way to financial freedom” – I’ve touted the book here before several times.
    In chapter 1 you will be able to identify yourself with losing traders’ biases.
    STOP TRADING!

    1. duckwhorocks1

      He is telling you that hope is not a strategy.
      Don’t beat yourself up on what happened but you have to understand the risk you took by listening to a blogger and buying a 3x leveraged fund with an annualized 30% decay.

        1. Pedestrian

          The other thing Robert is to forget making the big trading kills. Everyone here was flush with great profits when gold miners were rising but far too many got greedy and did not take the money off the table when the time came to do so. They went Old Turkey instead. And yet today Duck made a clean 7% on a quick trade in and out. Not greedy and not gambling. I respect that much more. Those kinds of gains are welcome anytime. Try his method instead and then compound it to see where modest frequent wins will get you instead of holding tight for the mother-lode lottery wins that the foolish bugs always talk about. You know the guys I refer too. They make you feel stupid because you didn’t get a 20 bagger but they did.

          1. Vagabond Trader

            Robert,
            Most traders overestimate what they can achieve in a year but underestimate what they can achieve in ten years.

            Here you can type in a starting balance of $10,000 with a 1% a day profit over 364 days to see what I mean; http://compoundaily.com/

            Another very good book is ‘Trading in the Zone’ by Mark Douglas.

    1. Robert

      Goldilock I bought JNUG not GDX so I’m down big especially with this decay. After this, I think the best way to trade is to buy actual mining stocks. So there is no worry of decay with them and if u get it wrong even if u end u holding a bag u will eventually break back even. Doesn’t seem possible with JNUG due to decay

      1. chrisG

        Go and learn the math of 3x or 2 x leverage. Any down days work against u mathematically. So, use them to trade. If u wanna hold, it has to be super trending period with very few days against u. Else, u r f.

        eg. 100 to 50 is 50% drop, but 50 to 100 needs 100% gains. ie, any big draw downs, makes it harder for you to get to back in.

      2. goldilocks

        Got it, sorry. Yes the leveraged ETF’s work for very short term trading for the most part. Sometimes one gets lucky. FYI I buy nothing but private placements (miners) to hold and with each share I get a warrant good for 1/2 to 1 add’l share usually good for 3-4 years; I’m holding 2018-2020 warrants, currently.

  27. Alexandru Popovici

    Robert, I’ve been where you are as many as 3 times, getting wiped, so I am telling you from experience.
    In essence, it is about the dichotomy between mass psychology and our individual social instincts as well as instilled by society. thus, we can only fail at markets by entering trading arena with our common sense and social habits (just think that when one person yells, our first reaction is to look in that direction to analyze the peril while starting to run in the opposite direction – AND ALL HERD DO THE SAME!).
    This is key to understand why you lose and keep on losing.

    You have to change your focus, train your brain to produce another mind.
    Stop trading, start reading.
    I am out for tonight.
    BR to you all

  28. Pedestrian

    NUGT rising on modest or below average volumes. Yesterday had almost 4X the activity. The market does not seem to be believers yet.

    1. Pedestrian

      I have my doubts too. It never reached the lower boundary of its falling trend channel so maybe a little more decline lies ahead.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Looked at last evening’s COT report and it is just bothersome. The small and large speculators increased long positions in both Silver and Gold. Granted this was before the bulk of the decline as the report is as of November 8th but this is not β€œgiving up” behavior. I had a quick trade which fortunately went well but I want to see a better sentiment washout before I am ready to climb anywhere on this β€œbull train”.

    1. Surf City

      NAK up 36% now on zero news that I can find but I’m lovin it. πŸ˜‰

      Taking some chips off the table at $1.22 that I picked up between .65 to .75

  29. Dday

    Dollar looking like its going to finish the day firmly above 100. Not looking like its topped, but lets see.

      1. Pedestrian

        I agree Surfer. And the lack of conviction and volumes among buyers right now seems to support that idea. Probably looking at this dragging out until Friday anyway. We did not get the “V” shaped bounce I was hoping for.

        I never give up hoping, no matter how bad things look.

        1. Pedestrian

          As an aside, you mentioned Scandium and NAK today. I don’t follow either. Are you screening for stocks Ad Hoc or are those two something of personal interest that you keep tabs on.

          1. Surf City

            Part of my holdings of small miners that I prefer over GDXJ or JNUG. Far less volatile because most are on the Toronto exchange where the HFT Algos don’t play but also far less liquid. I have found my list from a variety of sources.

        2. Surf City

          Regarding Volume patterns, I show the weekly volume on Gold, GDX and GDXJ were all a a 5 year high. Looks to me like a capitulation shake out where shares are moving to strong hands from weak hands.

          1. Pedestrian

            Thanks Surf. Yes, you are right on volumes. The weekly is quite a different picture than the Tuesday activity. I was focused on this day for immediate trend clues. Just saw your site for the first time today. Nice work. I will drop by again.

    1. Dday

      The fall in oil was a bear trap in my opinion. With Opec meeting at the end of the month, I expect more fun and games and oil to go well over $50. Can’t see shorting energy is a good call.

      1. Pedestrian

        I have a crude number on WTI of 47.50 at an eyeball glance. The number needs more refining but I feel pretty sure it turns back down and possibly sharply starting in early December. There is a confluence of significant trades that look like they are all lining up together but I need more time to work it all out.

  30. duckwhorocks1

    109.30 USD/JPY…called for 110 before 90 when it was at 101…versus Gary who called for 90.
    Gary are you gonna actually pay up the Burrito if this happens.
    We also have a bet for Sub $20 on GDX and sub $1,200 on Gold before $32 and $1,400 respectively.
    3 Burritos will go a long way towards making me happy. Just saying…

  31. WallStreetJesus

    Howdy everyone!!

    It appears we have a few gamblers on this site.

    I am new to the forum but will gladly make a burrito wager that my drawdown is bigger than yours!!

    That goes for you too Robert. It looks like you are in the hurting and hoping stage. Who hasn’t been there? Of course the GDX will be in the 27-30 range by March/April. Why wouldn’t it be? We are gold bugs!! If you aren’t a gold bug you are probably posting on the wrong site. That feeling you have right now is what bottoms feel like.

    Congratulations to those on the site that can trade in and out of the market in perfect rhythm on a regular basis. I have to admit I have never been able to do that.

    Gary and Old Turkey are not very popular at the moment, however sizing up what type of market it is – bull or bear and just holding on seems to be sound advice from a long term perspective. Drawdowns are a natural consequence of trend trading. Trying to jump in and out of the market is a losing proposition for most people. Everyone can have a hot hand for a little while but over the long haul the ducks come home to roost.

    The final 10% of the time of a bull run will usually encompass 50% or more of the price movement. Just look at copper last week. If you are not in the market setting tight you are going to miss the most rewarding part of a move.

    What we do know is the Chinese love to gamble. They had a little fun with copper last week. They are mildly interested in Palladium right now. One of these days the Chinese will get interested in platinum and silver. There will be a bull market that will go down in the record books when that day comes.

    This is a guessing game. Nobody knows where the market is going next. The first rule of life is to survive. The second rule is that all other rules can be broken if they support the first rule.

  32. Alexandru Popovici

    Monkeybiz, YES, I definitely recommend buying TLT through January!
    It’s a sure bet medium term.
    T-bonds set their YCL yesterday, as anticipated, whereas T-bills today.

  33. Alexandru Popovici

    Gold and miners to skyrocket from here!
    GDX managed today to chart a convincing swing low and follow through despite massive selling on strength yesterday.

    Clearly YCL gold yesterday at 1211

    1. happycamper515

      Hope you’re right. Wonder if silver can recover that 2-day 10 percent decline from Friday/Monday just as quickly?

    2. happycamper515

      What is your definition of skyrocket and many don’t think that is possible into the face of a rising dollar.

    3. daverobson

      Hey Alex,
      When do you anticipate to sell your UGLD position? On the dch? December before FOMC meeting? (Last daily cycle topped on day 18 –so this one might be around Dec 7 – a week before FOMC meeting?) By the way I saw your comment on cycle trading (likesmoney.ca) you were asking about trendlines being drawn incorrectly. Good stuff….

      1. happycamper515

        I wouldn’t call 1293 a skyrocket. Let’s hope that is where the engines just start igniting.

  34. David Silver

    Duck where do YOU see gold here short-term?
    Alex said 1172 but now 1211 is his bottom? I’m confused here

    1. rupp

      Alex said 1182. Then his $ target was breached faster than expected, so the time frame for gold bottoming changed. That eas my take from his commentary. I happen to think gold can drop below 1200 sometime between end of dec and January. This is based off nothing more than the pattern I see on the gold chart. It implies a drop below what we’ve seen.

      1. rupp

        I posted back earlier in one of the threads that gold wouldnt go below 1209, by the way. I’m not so confident now, after the giant failed candle on election night.

    2. duckwhorocks1

      As you know I took my longs out, so it follows that I believe we go lower at some point.
      Shorter term looks a bit bullish. I was impressed with Gold’s outperfomance of USD JPY and Gdx’s outperfomance of Gold. I got out too early but I am not buying back in.

      So $1,250 and then lower in my opinion.
      How low down? Not sure yet but I would like to see the COT improve and the small speculator throw in the towel.

  35. duckwhorocks1

    Gary,
    You are looking at the wrong ticker for your ICL move. IWM small caps are up 11% since November 3rd.

  36. BeKind

    Alex you are nailing it! And I am tagging along for the ride. Thank you very much. Would you kindly say more about where your sell gold and miners in a few weeks is coming from and what else you see going on in the markets at that time. I like that you are an independent thinker and that you are willing to put your calls out there in black and white. Bravo! I wish you every success in life.

  37. zbigkid

    Gary said just back last week:
    “Gold is resisting the bounce in the dollar, as it has done in the past. Once the dollar is ready to roll over into an intermediate cycle low gold will be ready to fly.”

    He really meant: “Gold will roll over and DIE, and the dollar will be ready to fly.”

    How many times did he bash people, that were going to miss the gold move higher ?

  38. Dday

    Has 99.9 become support for the dollar. It feels the same as the last couple of days, pull back on the dollar during Asian trading. Then slowly gaining in EU followed by more strength once US markets open..

    1. Dday

      Also have a look at the monthly dollar. MACD almost crossing showing a buy signal, RSI and stochastic still have further upside. The dollar rally is far from over. Only my opinion, but be careful if you are bullish commodities have a look at the charts for yourselves. I’ll shut up now…

  39. Alexandru Popovici

    David Silver, 1293 for gold was the target for the dead cat bounce in the slightly different scenario before Friday evening when I came to realize that USD set in May a multi-year cycle low, that we are early in the new USD bull and hence some tweaks in my forecast was warranted, particularly that gold/miners would bottom (YCL) early this week.

    Subsequently, as RUPP also told you, when I saw that USD quickly advanced to my target of 99.90 WHILE GOLD SHOWED STRENGTH BY FALLING TO ONLY 1212 at that time (then one more buck down to 1211), I realized that the YCL had been set.

    PS: please mind that in the meantime I have also made another tweak in my assessment: stocks and industrial commodities would bottom in early JAN (about the time treasuries top in their new yearly cycle).

  40. Alexandru Popovici

    Look now again at the relevance of my 99.90 target in USX πŸ™‚ : its low today has been 99.92 !
    All the action in USX we have seen show exhaustion driven by the extremely bullish 3 macro reports yesterday.

    Those 3 reports were not good for USD because they put it on steroids and will make it faint soon.
    This power is driven by retailers and by the laggard mutual funds.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        Contrarian swing traders of large US hedge funds seeing the same exhaustion that I see and starting to put in short USD orders, action which will draw the attention of day traders, which in turn will turn the attention of smart retail swingers and the red snow ball will roll over down the slope.

  41. Pedestrian

    In spite of so many gold charts looking so bloody bleak there is still one or two other indicators I follow that keep hope alive. The very bullish weekly crossover of 50 and 200 weekly moving averages that is in progress on the JPYUSD tells me that this Yen decline will end in the near future and gold will respond by moving up. We may need a little more corrective decline in miners first though and possibly gold itself will stall out. But bearishness on metals trades is again extreme so this in itself if positive.

  42. Alexandru Popovici

    Caution to traders here and elsewhere trying to hunt a lower low in gold/GDX: not only is the probability of such a bet very low (you have a much higher probability of wining by betting on flipping coin, i.e. 50%) but you can be the happy traders who can afford being proud that YOU’VE OUTSMARTED GEORGE SOROS AND HIS SHREWED TRADERS since you [still] are able to by ABX at some -20% discount versus them during last quarter !

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      … anyway, the reality of this wait-and-see of traders AT MAJOR MARKET TURNS has been and will always be so powerful and prevalent that there has even been coined a term to define such action: THE LOCKOUT RALLY.

    2. Pedestrian

      Fair enough Alex. But there are still conditions present to suggest a tradeable rally is coming even if its not something we hold very long. I sure agree caution is warranted but neither should traders be afraid to play a swing. We live for these after all (at least some of us).

    1. Pedestrian

      Nice Chris! I like your charting. You know, there is no good reason why gold and silver miners should not participate if there is a significant stock market rally getting under way as some insist will soon happen. I am keeping an open mind but will admit I can’t call it just yet. If the HUI retests the past weeks lows and looks like its going to make a run higher I am getting on board.

  43. Dday

    I predict an 8 month rally in the dollar to 120 from here. Basing on technicals stated earlier. That would take us to next autumn where the dollar will begin to reverse…

    1. Pedestrian

      Sounds good to me. I don’t expect more than one more pullback before a very long dollar rise begins. This is going to turn the markets on their head for all next year and commodities in general should be forced to retest prior CRB lows in the process. Crude oil will falter and sell down to its prior lows at 26 if I am correct and then test new deeper lows. The bright spot is that this may signal the end of the commodity deflation cycle so come 2018 we are seeing the sector on the rise as the dollars major thrust upwards has completed. The euro is headed for hell in a handbasket. Minimum 25% decline by my reckoning. I keep saying that the Euro devaluation should be the fuel to set gold on fire but that remains to be seen. It is just a theory at this point.

  44. eddy1974

    Alex, what is your opinion about TRSPHOME index: Trump’s election and hes program move up NAIL very strong. Pssible ICL in 11.02?

  45. Alexandru Popovici

    DAVE Robson, the current YCL in gold should top at the end of May – beginning of June, as USX declines to its YCL.
    But please be reminded that I think that besides the rise to come through December and then from March through May/June, gold will move primarily sideways as USX will rise.

  46. Alexandru Popovici

    Eddy:
    1) I think ensuing higher [but controlled] inflation will help real estate very much everywhere in the free world.
    2) DRIP is highly volatile, its ATR(14)=11%, much above my 5-6% cap.

    I expect oil and CRB to rise today too and to top tomorrow or the day after. Unless I see Financials starting their decline first, I will buy ERY later this week. Today is day 2 of the last daily cycle of oil – its DCL in January will be the YCL πŸ˜‰

  47. chrisG

    I know no one is bullish on gold. All think usd going to continue rallying. I think so too. But I really also believe gold had an iMpulse rally, and shouldn’t give up itself without a fight.

    A possible scenario. Fomc fed says going to raise rates slowly?

    Anyway, I also fear dollar strength and have an exit plan for my miners

  48. Dday

    No reason to be bearish on the dollar until or after the December rate decision, simple as that, has been for weeks.

  49. Alexandru Popovici

    It is for situations like this that the psychiatric study of bipolar disorder is of fantastic help for trading.

  50. zkotpen

    Alex,

    I’m still in the same camp as Surf City: YCL still ahead in gold — not imminent, but still lies ahead.

    I don’t know where you get your 50% probability from (it’s not calculated), but I don’t think gold and miners have moved far enough below their respective 200 day SMA’s to give YCL’s. That’s the result of my probability assessment.

    ALL market psychology manifests perfectly and elegantly in price movement over time πŸ˜‰

  51. chrisG

    I have my methods of TA. And indeed there’s a fair chance gold bottom like Alex says. But then, I am fearing too! Lol

  52. Dday

    I expect another sell off once US opens, probably down to $1180. If it looks like a bear, sounds like a bear, smells like a bear, it is highly probable that it is a bear…

  53. Alexandru Popovici

    Hello, Zkot!
    No, by 50% I meant the probability of playing by flipping coin πŸ™‚ not the one for gold’s low.
    It’s all so nice.

  54. chrisG

    Traders are influenced by recency. Recently, USD has been rallying, and u all think it will continue. Dollar is very stretched in its cycle. Gold likely have sensed it. And will resist short term, ie, a day or 2 of dollar strength. lol. Ok, i am paraphrasing Gary likely views. This is his view a week ago. I believe he was too early. Too early by a week, and too early in price.

    At 1211 ish, the price, and this week, the time would be more appropriate. So Gary is right, albeit early. Lets see.

  55. Alexandru Popovici

    yes, Chris, indeed, and hedge fund swing traders take advantage of this psychological inertia all the time.
    these mammoth US traders are now yawning taking their breakfast; soon they will in front of their desktops, unless…some are already.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      … I guess some of these traders are already smiling…but beware, do not be happy when they have this smile on their face –> it is an ominous smile, a superior smirk rather.

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