201 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY – ICL’S

  1. Gary Post author

    The same thing will happen for gold. Maybe we got the ICL with the test of 1170. Maybe the cycle will stretch out till the FOMC meeting. The market has become so erratic that normal cycle timing bands haven’t been much help, but I do know that at some point there will be an ICL and when it is complete price will reverse just like it did in Nat gas.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      If normal cycle bands don’t help, why exactly are subscribers paying you?
      For technical analysis, which you say never works unless you need it to back your case?

        1. duckwhorocks1

          That was a rhetorical question.
          Tell you what, you pay up the two Burritos and start feeding your subscribers more truth and less “Gary’s divine wisdom”…start saying “i got that wrong” versus “The market manipulation got me.” and I will dedicate a shrine to you.

    2. jeffd5584

      Good post Gary. I completely agree with your observation that trendline breaks (especially after the move is well off its highs, are usually the final liquidity vacuum to create the thrust higher. That’s why having some understanding of cycles is worthwhile. There are initial TL breaks (when sentiment is bullish/bearish) and price is near a stretched high/low, but those are entirely different than the longer term TL breaks that occur after the correction has run its course.

      Another perfect example would be Russell 2000. How many were fooled in the days leading up to that ICL (and yes that was a picture perfect 94 TD ICL). Every technical analyst became super bearish the week of Oct 28th, but lo and behold on the Friday before election week, Russell suddenly bounced and “signalled” the market. 16%+ higher in under a month.

  2. Mac

    No chart will tell you where prices are going in the future, not technical analysis, not Elliott Wave and not cycles. You either understand why prices change direction or you don’t. Those that understand why trends change are the ones buying or selling at bottoms and tops. Those that don’t either wait for confirmation in a chart or they buy every cycle low and play the probabilities and hope they got it right. You can make money either way but you should know which one you are.

    1. jeffd5584

      So you speak for everyone Mac? These aren’t the markets of the 90’s/00’s. In case you haven’t noticed, these markets like to “V” a lot. The “wait for confirmation” trade does not give you good trade location. The “wait for the retracement” to get long trade doesn’t appear like it used to. Show me the “wait for confirmation, wait for a retracement” in the last 4-5 cycle lows in the stock indicies. Cycles nailed them each time, but you’ve already told all of us “cycle’s don’t work”

      1. Mac

        Not speaking for anyone just stating the fact that historical charts have no predictive ability. Cycles look to pick bottoms whether that is the final bottom of a longer term downtrend or the bottom of a pullback in an uptrend. In both cases you need to make the assumption that you know the trend. Cycles and other technical analysis have zero ability to tell you if the trend will continue or if there is a trend change. Rather then showing you the instances when you were better served to wait perhaps you should just look at how well cycles did at making bottom calls in gold over the last 5 yrs.

        1. jeffd5584

          I can’t find any good cycles in gold, hence I rarely trade it. That hasn’t stopped me from finding some excellent cycle consistency in crude oil, a few equities and the stock indicies.

          1. Mac

            The asset you trade is irrelevant. In all assets charts give you no indication where prices are going in the future. Cycles are helpful in getting a better entry point in a market that continues to trend in one direction which is why they have been helpful with equities.

        2. yasen

          So Mac, what are you recommending.. Cycles help, we get that, but you seem to be hinting at something to help identify when the trend will change. Now how exactly does one do that w/out using TA?

          1. Mac

            I’m not hinting at anything. You either understand how markets work or you use a different approach. Beware technical analysts making up fundamental narratives. All I was suggesting is that you know the limitations of the approach that you are using. If you don’t know why markets change trend then it is likely that you will suffer drawdowns when the trend changes especially without the discipline to cut loses quickly. Garys post highlighted where standard TA fails so I just pointed out where cycles fail. Gary could have just as easily showed you charts where buying most cycle lows since 2008 would have been a terrible strategy.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    EURUSD BACK AT 1.06 AND WITH NO RROF TO STOP IT RUN INTO THE REALM OF 1.08 AS EARLY AS TOMORROW while GBPEUR is now still at its top but on its way to seek its DCL.

      1. yasen

        Alex,

        What are your thoughts as of late on the SCORCH? XLU that you made mention of last week is still rocking, so it does appear that money is flowing into defensive sector.

  4. Surf City

    Gary, on your first chart, there were divergences on both the RSI and Slow Sto indicating that the ICL was near.

    I am actually showing that as NatGas’s YCL as well and have been long BOIL out of the YCL. 😉

  5. duckwhorocks1

    GDX outperformance is encouraging for the bullish case.
    My current only position is Short TCK which I initiated yesterday at $26.44 and posted it real time over here.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Scratch that. Just reviewed the latest COT report.
      We are going sub $1,100. No bottom in sight.

        1. duckwhorocks1

          If you remember my guarantee…. I said I will stop posting if we did not go to $1,199 by end of November or beginning of December. Many derided that comment. How did that work out for you guys?

    2. victor

      Duck, don’t play nasty such question is not adding to you “If normal cycle bands don’t help, why exactly are subscribers paying you?” … we know you’re a good guy anyway.
      Common, pay Gary’s subscription for a year and we all would be happy for you… (( :

      1. duckwhorocks1

        What part of my last 4 month trading record, all posted here since I began, makes you think I need to pay for advice, from Gary?

          1. duckwhorocks1

            I don’t bother with creating them. Go back and check from August I have been calling for
            1) Sub $20 on GDX
            2) $1,200 or lower on gold
            3) USD/JPY over 110.

            Would you have someone who was right or someone who posts the wrong chart?
            Since the collective community here seems to be in disbelief that someone actually got this whole correcting right, let me know if you need any links in case you cannot find exactly what I predicted. And here is the best part, I did not charge you a cent.

        1. zbigkid

          What part of LEAVE don’t you understand ? So you think you are smarter than Gary, dont need him or to pay for him, so go start your own Blog, and let people deride you the same way you do him. Gary’s got more fortitude in his pinky, than you have in your entire body. Seriously, you are one gutless SOB, and must have some sort of mental problem to keep coming back here, and taunting like you do. Instead of duckwhorocks, your moniker should be jerkwhosucks. If you want to GROW UP and Be fair about it, show everyone your real name like Gary does. Otherwise, go be a gutless fool somewhere else, bc you are not adding any benefit to the peanut gallery.

          1. jeffd5584

            All of these open commentary places turn into massive pissing contest’s. Always been that way, always will be…The second Gary slipped up and missed a call, this place turned into non stop trolling with some really rude nonsense.

    1. Steffmeister

      Yepp nice charts Surf City, it hsa become a tradition of mine to buy gold late in the year like now 🙂

  6. fin

    Alexandru,
    What’s your play for xlp and xlu, if you mind me asking? And when you’re selling it? Good call. I’m following it.
    Thanks.

  7. jonsyl

    no change with outlook, equity markets and gold in particular depend on dollar which shows little signs of reversing. Considering the negative sentiment on gold, it’s holding up above recent lows of past week. Best to watch rather than aganize

  8. tater123

    Duckwhorocks1 … you probably don’t care but everyone would appreciate your knowledge and trading ability alot more if you weren’t so accusatory, condescending and aggressive

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Good point. I will keep that in mind. This might be hard to believe but I have tried rational reasoning with Gold bugs and I have found most lack the capacity to understand logic. On the other side if even one subscriber sees the danger of blindly trading 3x etfs because of my harsh criticism of Gary….worth it. I hope to start trading full time for a living in 2017 February. Might start a blog then.

  9. boltfan13

    Duck and Alex have been posting comments and trades here in real time for quite awhile. Neither has a subscription service to sell. I’d think three times before fading either one of them. Duck is especially good at backing up his comments with real facts and thought-provoking ideas. Refreshing. Thanks to both for keeping it real around here.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Thank you. And I am not a dick all the time. Only when I see clear deception from either the likes of Stephen Lee ” Gold is going to $20,000″ or Gary ” my cycle analysis made me a multimillionaire but don’t seem to be working lately because of manipulation. ” You make a straight call on gold silver or anything else because you want to trade it and not because precious metals will save you from the coming apocalypse….. And you get it wrong…. I will never give you grief. We all screw up….that is life…..There are those here that post trading, fundamental ideas different than mine, ( Ped, Alex come to mind) I discuss them rationally…..without ever being a dick.

    1. ras

      Good post, surf city. Likely, we could get a bounce around 40 and then sink lower to your lower target. I wonder if anybody knows why gyrations in us$ do not have the same close correlation with crude price, unlike gold price. TIA.

  10. jonsyl

    duck, you recently posted as having more faith in oil than gold. Still feel oil will bounce back from this slide by end of week, while gold continues down below recent 1170 low.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      No opinion over that time frame.
      I see minimum of $70 by December 2017.
      Looking to go massively long CPG soon.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    Welcome, Boltfan! Pleased to be of help.

    WEEKLY SWING LOW IN TLT.

    EURUSD advancing quickly as GBPEUR feels the attraction of its DCL.

  12. Gary Post author

    While it may have taken a hell of a lot longer than I expected, I think there’s a good chance the 3 year cycle has finally topped on the dollar. Or at least the intermediate cycle.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Anyone can make a call :). If I cannot back it with a trade then it is a low conviction call. Currently my short TCK and long Eur/USD are the only positions. I am bearish on Gold but this a dangerous point to short for me. So if that means I miss the down move so be it.

      I will share with you a fact about the oil market. Do you know what is holding it down? It is the relentless shorting/ hedging by commercials who are mainly the Shale oil drillers. They have been scarred so badly by $27 that they view $50 as a gift. Yet no retard on King World news talks about the “naked” oil shorting, which is the exact same “naked” Gold shorting. Both done by producers of gold and oil through intermediary banks. But that simple statement does not inspire someone to open their check books and buy a subscription.

      1. jdavid2

        Duck,
        SMT needs to be made aware of its short comings if it is to survive. Like shorting a stock to wake up mgt to spur changes SMT needs a good shaking. If it cannot stand up to the scrutiny then it will lose more subscribers.
        I read all that you post.

  13. SLEP

    Unfortunately, I just got a sell signal from my proprietary indicator, which is telling me we could see $950 to $1,000 gold and $9.50 to $10.00 silver. Sorry for the bad news for the gold bugs.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      I doubt we ever see those silver prices but the COT report continues to show stubborn bullishness on the part of small specs so lower prices than I initially thought are possible.

  14. jeyragusa

    Seems like a particularly lousy day for gold. Dollar down, treasuries up and yet, gold AND gold miners still down. And this, when they are already EXTREMELY oversold. Thinking of lightning up my already small position………….

  15. Steffmeister

    I’ve traded the year end in Gold for the last 2years, now is a good time to make a move.

    5% of my portfolio in NUGT and JNUG 🙂 I stick my head out and say that the low is in.

    8.10 NUGT
    6.75 JNUG

    I may eat my words later … but the most skilled gold analyst is sending some positive signals about gold. if the bear had the upper hand, it would have defeated the bull by now, but it hasn’t.

    1. ras

      May be, could be. I am open to all possibilities. Not biased to any side. Up, down, sideways: they are all the same to me.

    2. TraderPete

      Steff, thanks for your post. I’m with you. By the way, who is the gold analyst that you referenced?

  16. ras

    Nice try, Gary, with a partial picture, but no cigar. TL break is just one indicator. Others parameters must confirm too. What counts is plurality. Without it, consistency is hard to come by in trading. No point in an endless debate. Unproductive to try and convince anybody. Everyone is free to do what works for him best.

    I am open to the possibility that nugt could revisit $4 or less, if the bounce underway peters out. If, on the other hand, your read prevails, I will be there a bit later. Time will tell. Cheers.

  17. jonsyl

    equities likely to take a rest in here. gold surprisingly having a very muted response to the dollar weakness. Need some conviction in both for any confirmation of reversals.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Things are worsening!
    GBPUSD proves unable to penetrate its 50dma — odds are shifting the GBP is presaging again: the incoming USX advance in a new daily cycle in 2 days or so.

    This means that GBPEUR will not move into its DCL this week thanks to an aggressive EUR advance to 1.08 but rather to GBPUSD depreciation, thus leaving little room for growth to EURUSD pair.

    Yet, I think gold still has time to shine a bit thanks to the laggard JPY moving down in its DCL to drive USX down to the celebrated 99.90 pivot (now an extraordinary support).

    Conclusion: Gold up to some 1205 on Thursday as GBPEUR, USDJPY and USX bottom.

    1. yasen

      Alex, you are thinking $USD is going to bottom that quickly? How about a potential ICH for dollar and a potential YCL for $GOLD? Also, would love to hear your thoughts on XLU and TLT. I have been long TLT for about 4 days now and as you mentioned, we had a nice swing low on the weekly. Good trading.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      consequently, for anyone interested, now it is more advantageous dumping EURUSD longs for EURGBP ones — the latter pair will rise anyway through the next 2 days; EURUSD risks stalling as GBPUSD moves lower.

    3. Alexandru Popovici

      by “the laggard JPY moving down in its DCL to drive USX down to the celebrated 99.90 pivot” Ireferred to USDJPY pair, not to JPY per se.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY, based on my renewed analysis above (pivoting arround GBP), your prior comment to wait buying gold until weekly swing low receives credit: with GBP leading all USD pairs down, gold cannot rise to 1220 to risk producing an invalid weekly swing low.
    Cheers!

    1. daverobson

      Alex I see JYP really moving when its comes out of its low…. this should really give gold some legs in January.

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    Yasen, yes, I am convinced USX to bottom to DCL this week.
    If GBPUSD indeed is not able to penetrate its 50dma by Thursday but rolls over instead (as it now casts signs it plans to do), then I WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE THE CALL THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE YCLs IN EUR AND IN GOLD BUT THEY WILL COME IN FOMC MEETING AFTERMATH.
    This would shift the odds considerably to this scenario, enough to render me sure about it, hence ICH for USX in December and EUR putting a yearly cycle of 13 months.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      as to treasuries: they’ve shown relative strength vs gold these days but they will be affected by EUR and Gold rolling to YCLs.

  21. Robert

    Gold is freaking annoying the hell out of me now arrghh. How long to just get a damn sustainable bounce! Pure chop! Im tired of waiting

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Robert, wait for USDJPY to touch 109.50 and USX 99.90 tomorrow or Thursday with hold at 1200 and dump it there to buy it back on DEC15.

  22. ras

    Not trying to convince anybody. Just an input. Go to stockcharts.com and pull up a weekly candle chart with PSAR signal. According to it, we are still on a weekly sell signal. Previous 4week, $60 bounce could not nullify this sell signal. If the current bounce peters out around $1250, the sell signal stays in place. A much bigger sustained advance would be needed to get the SAR dots below the price. Cheers.

  23. Goild

    Great chefs say that the three qualities of a good one are: attention to detail, patience, and creativity.
    These same qualities apply also to trading.
    This site is great as it gives lots of ideas.
    Reading all of your comments is great !!!

  24. SLEP

    My cycles work tells me that we will see a YCL in gold about the first week of Feb. 2017. I don’t know if this will be the end of the bear market in gold, but it will be a major low.

    Whatever happened to Ped.i.cure? 😆

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    AND IT’S HAPPENED: GBP FALLS, WHILE EUR STALLS, thus FORECASTING THE ENSUING DOLLAR APPREciation after DCL tomorrow as USDJPY is ready to fall dramatically on Beige Book release.

    Tomorrow I’ll dump my gold.
    Gold can bounce to maximum 1215 alongside JPY today and tomorrow.

    Now I can make tha call that YCLs of gold and EUR have yet to be seen in mid DEC!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      the status of trades i suggested yesterday at session-end above:
      – long EURGBP = +60 pips
      – short GBPJPY = flat (but not for long as GBPUSD has fallen in IC decline and JPY is too bounce for 2 days).

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      besides… gold/miners need to jump in order to confirm their new daily cycles, except that inter-currency markets relationships indicate that these respective daily cycles will be left translated and will fail.

  26. michelle

    Well so much for Gary’s oil is topping prediction. He is turning out to be a great contrarian indicator.

    1. Gary Post author

      I believe it was surf city yesterday who said the yearly cycle decline had begun. The tell will be how the market reacts to this bullish news. If it fails to hold the gains and turns back down then I would be in the same boat as Surf and say the YCL is beginning.

  27. Dday

    You are completely wrong. The technical analyst would wait for the MACD to cross at the same time as the k(stochastic) indicator crossing above 20, plus RSI, TSI and various other indicators available. That chart would then indicate a bullish stance to a technical analyst and the timing would be perfect. I’m assuming when you say “technical analyst” you mean someone who uses technical indicators? Its a different case on the monthly but Agreed gold is very close to showing a bullish confirmation on the one day,regarding MACD and stochastic. Max two days for confirmation.

    1. Dday

      On a long term monthly chart now the dollar has broken out of the two year channel(to the upside), I think its game over for the dollar bears.

      Here is a weekly dollar chart
      http://invst.ly/2uvqh

      Daily

      http://invst.ly/2uvqp

      and finally monthly showing what looks like a reasonable target of 120, and the clear cup and handle from 2003…..

      Now the question is weather gold can rise at the same time as the dollar. If it continues acting as it has done in the last 5 years then i feel $800 gold is on the cards, but with bounces off support levels on the way. Or it could rise with the dollar both distinct possibilities. Now if only my crystal ball was working….

      http://invst.ly/2uvsk

  28. BeKind

    Alex I’m getting whiplash trying to follow your currencies and gold. Thus far gold and miners have had no meaningful rally. Do you see the YCL already in for these or further to go?

  29. Goild

    Recently the miners (nugt) are resisting somehow gold going down.
    Today gold may reach again about 1180 forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern for this week.
    This testing, and stop breaking, might be the begging of at least a small bounce.

    1. Dday

      It’s Hopium, miners holding up because $1180/$1170 supports intact. If those supports fail miners/ etfs will sink like a stone. I think on the daily gold could bounce to $1230-$1250, monthly chart shows a bleaker picture.

  30. Goild

    Definitely, playing the leveraged miners has its own high risk. Though by managing the downside one stands a potential to have a great profit. It also seems that SPY going up is helping the miners to sustain gold going down. As per Hopium, I should be indeed careful, and think shorting instead,

  31. Alexandru Popovici

    Bekind, as I said, nothing has changed except that now I am convinced YCL lies ahead – the roller coaster I was talking about will be merely other left-translated daily cycles for EUR/gold/miners to fail.
    Thus, I repeat, gold up to 1205, maximum 1215 tomorrow then down to lower low while EURUSD would touch 1.07 and then roll back down to some 1.0490 on DEC15

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      volatility today has been casued by Draghi’s speach, ADP report, and CPI so far.
      It may not end until Beige Book, which I mentioned above as a catalyst for USDJPY and USX falling below 109.90 and 99.90 respectively to reach their DCLs –> opoportunity for miners/gold to confirm their daily cycles at some 1205, as said.

  32. Goild

    I got scared yesterday and sold half of my position in oil. Today’s oil’s big jump might be a good indicator for a gold bounce. In the old days oil and gold were highly correlated and so it might be that the opec meeting will actually be fruitful and that might be the turning point for gold. As per the interest rates increase, it seems that is already discounted and that they will have a smaller effect. Though we might see a brief big spike in price change at the annoucement.

  33. Dday

    Far too much emotional trading on this website. It’s defiantly entertaining. For a more realistic approach i like Kitco, it provides support/resistance levels, and not overly bullish or bearish analysis. I think we are agreed on miners, while gold is holding support the miners haven’t declined further. By managing the downside you mean setting stops?

        1. Dday

          “schadenfreude”… Its the use of over bullish language that causes the misfortune in the gold sector. I personally think that is deplorable.

  34. michelle

    Gary SM looks like it will continue to go higher unlike your prediction of big money selling out here and a correction coming soon.

  35. michelle

    Alexandru whatever did happen to that market scorch you said was coming last week? Wow you sure are a bad guesser as the market has gone up almost every day since you predicted your SM scorch.

  36. Steffmeister

    Brutal fight between Bull&Bear in Gold right now, fascinating to watch, who is going to win? The Bear should have won by now …

    A beautiful double Head&Shoulders-pattern in the dollar forming ?

    Exiting times for sure 🙂

  37. duckwhorocks1

    I know we like to trade the nuances, but here is the big picture which I have been saying since August 2016.
    1) Gold is expensive compared to every other commodity.
    2) Gold ratio compared to almost every other commodity will decline. For example compared to platinum, Gold could go up and Platinum go up even more, or Gold could decline, and platinum decline less or even go up.
    3) Stop looking for manipulation…..the smart money is rotating to other less expensive commodities and leaving vulnerable to a decline.
    4) Gary is wrong (what else is new) about the Gold oil ratio. It will revert to 15-20 in the next 12 months. The best case for Gold is oil goes to $70 and Gold goes to $1,400. Seems like oil would still be the better play for anyone bullish commodities.
    %) If the deflationary thesis plays out…..I give that almost no chance…….and I would strongly bet against it…..and oil goes to $30 and stays there. GDX will go $5, because Gold will go sub $750.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        I know we like to trade the nuances, but here is the big picture which I have been saying since August 2016.
        1) Real Money is expensive compared to every other commodity.
        2) Real Money ratio compared to almost every other commodity will decline. For example compared to platinum, Real Money could go up and Platinum go up even more, or Real Money could decline, and platinum decline less or even go up.
        3) Stop looking for manipulation…..the smart money (NOT REAL MONEY) is rotating to other less expensive commodities and leaving vulnerable to a decline.
        4) Gary is wrong (what else is new) about the Real money oil ratio. It will revert to 15-20 in the next 12 months. The best case for Real money is oil goes to $70 and Real money goes to $1,400. Seems like oil would still be the better play for anyone bullish commodities.
        %) If the deflationary thesis plays out…..I give that almost no chance…….and I would strongly bet against it…..and oil goes to $30 and stays there. GDX will go $5, because Real money will go sub $750.

        There….. fixed it for ya.

        1. Steffmeister

          kwack kwack …

          manipulation does exist but it’s not 24/7 more like shop lifting. Manipulation has been a part of markets since day one.

          1. duckwhorocks1

            Here is what I don’t get.
            The mantra of every retard that speaks on KWN is that Gold is manipulated lower. Thinking rationally one can reach two conclusions from that if one believes it .
            1) Thanks for making it cheaper….can you please manipulate my hooker costs in New York next?
            2) I will not trade it where the Powers that be have obviously been successfully manipulating it forever.

            How the F do you go from “This shit is heavily manipulated to the downside” to “Let me leverage my ass by buying a 3X leveraged etf, where the underlying itself (gold stocks) is itself leveraged 3X to the price of Gold because I am a freaking glutton for punishment.”

          2. Steffmeister

            ?

            aha you are talking about Gary, I’ve never said that things are manipulated 24/7 and no I do not read KWN. I’ve said for years at this blog, the pattern in gold is a natural one with one small? part being manipulation. We got maipulation in all markets not just the gold market.

          3. Steffmeister

            and I think manipulation works both ways, both up and down. Maybe we got a little bit more manipulation from bullion bansk/centeralbanks now bcos gold&silver are political metals, I do not know to be honest.

            But the fractal present in gold is a natural pattern 🙂 and it’s pointing towards a low in a couple of years, but it’s not written in stone. Thats how I see it.

            We got a low for two straight years in gold and a rally coming into the new year I am betting on a similar scenario here.

          4. duckwhorocks1

            SO if you say it is really small it is about as irrelevant as there being none..at least over longer time periods…..so your stance is similar to mine.

            Years back….Gary firmly said “no” to the manipulation theory but he never sold a single newsletter. So then he decided that he needed to embrace this if he wanted people to subscribe and changed his outlook.

          5. duckwhorocks1

            You are unusual breed Steff.
            You say Gold is mildly manipulated and you use phrases like “i don’t know” (very positive in my book) and you combine that with “Gold is real money”….I don’t know whether to like you or dislike you 🙂

  38. Goild

    Dday,

    By managing the downside I mean say selling a portion of my shares and day trading at the same time.
    So day trading helps me hedge the down side. I would hate to loose the upside in the miners so I am playing old turkey with at least some portion of my position. If it goes further down I will see it as an opportunity to load more shares. The elastic rubber is starting to get over extended. I do not see gold going to 700-800 as the ratio of dow/gold would go to historic highs. At worse I see gold at 1000. But if oil goes up then the chances for gold going further down would be much less.

    The down steps gold is taking are decreasing in depth. In day trading gold this might be indicative of a strong reversal.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Did we just almost say the same thing at almost the same time? See my comment above about Gold oil ratio :)?

    2. victor

      you just read my thought Dday, for the last several years I play downside by trading 20% portion of my shares daily afraid to miss up trust momentum, increased significantly # of shares this way…

  39. duckwhorocks1

    In related news, The Duck has not yet spotted the Fat Lady in the Gold bear market. Gold Bug websites all over the world claimed that the Fat Lady was kidnapped by the powers that be and that her singing voice was deliberately suppressed but the Duck sees things differently.

  40. jonsyl

    only silver lining for gold bulls, in spite of gold selloff to previous lows the miners holding up on relative basis, best to watch if they catch up to downside with breach of 1170, or signalling at least a temporary bottom. best to watch and see results rather than gambling on outcome as many super pundits here predict in advance

  41. duckwhorocks1

    The mantra of every retard that speaks on KWN is that Gold is manipulated lower. Thinking rationally one can reach two conclusions from that if one believes it .
    1) Thanks for making it cheaper….can you please manipulate my hooker costs in New York next?
    2) I will not trade it where the Powers that be have obviously been successfully manipulating it forever.

    How the F do you go from “This shit is heavily manipulated to the downside” to “Let me leverage my ass by buying a 3X leveraged etf, where the underlying itself (gold stocks) is itself leveraged 3X to the price of Gold because I am a freaking glutton for punishment.”

    1. duckwhorocks1

      I am gonna repost this here and elsewhere until I get an answer.
      I don’t believe in manipulation hence I trade it in both directions based on what my indicators tell me…but if I believed that I had the entire might of all the central banks against me…….my first reaction would not be to buy a leveraged gold stock etf with an inherent decay of 30% per year . Just saying.

      1. jeffd5584

        That’s the problem in a nutshell. I’ve traded gold and related instruments in the past. Occasionally, I still will play GDX, NUGT, DUST, etc, etc…but I’ve been in these markets when the overnight “sell ’em ugly” slamdowns were a routine event. Then days, weeks of sideways to lower chop (just like the past month). Like you say, it’s not in the interest of the central bank narrative and that headwind is very strong. On the other hand, the perpetually rising stock market is part of their positive narrative, hence “stick save’s” galore.

  42. jonsyl

    if you’re a manipulation theorist, then Trump gives you a gift. All his appointments for commerce, treasury etc are wall street strategist. It then follows you should be buying blindly, for they certainly will not do anything to lower the market, rather they will pump the hell out of it for their own interests until it collapses on its own weight.
    So buy buy buy. Just the expectation of this happening has already pumped the market without any real policy put in effect.

  43. ltr

    It is interesting reading stuffs in here. People who follow Gary, paid money for his poor market analysis to lose money. These folks attacked Duck who told them what they don’t want to hear about the truth and his observation in the market. You guys deserve to follow Gary’s subscription and lose money. You cannot blame things on manipulation when your poor analysis does not work, period. Guessing and manipulation are not a good combination to play with your hard-earned money in the market. Accept your leader is wrong and so are you. Go Duck, be very stern.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Thanks ltr.
      I truly want to understand the psychology of this David vs Goliath mentality where people take on an opponent with much more firepower than themselves.

      On the plus side, Gary believes the stock market is manipulated higher and refuses to short it. Whether the stock market is or is not manipulated is irrelevant. Gary’s reaction after he believes that fact..is RATIONAL.

      Gary yesterday you asked if I had nothing positive to say….so here is one for you.
      You may not be the worst analyst out there 🙂

    2. Gary Post author

      Correction.
      Stock portfolio up 73%
      Metal portfolio up 53%
      Quest portfolio up 1700%

      Anyone who has been here for more than just the last several months is making very good money.

      Anyone who stopped out at 1275 is now waiting on the sidelines for gold to form a weekly swing before trying again.

  44. ltr

    Here is a quote from Jesse Livermore that still apply to today’s trading. “I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be out of the market.”

  45. jonsyl

    equities continue to look tired in here in spite of oil euphoria and pumping by trump and company. Looking for a confirmation reversal in here for a short. Gold is still a wildcard, there simply is no way for an up move until dollar decides to rest at a minimum

  46. Goild

    Managing the downfall…
    Sold my oil shares and traded gold so I am done for the day with a good profit as of now and still have my entire NUGT shares. Tomorrow would be another day and who knows what it will bring.
    Hopefully gold closes even today.
    Best of luck to all for today trading, Now I have to go to my real job…
    Cheers.

  47. duckwhorocks1

    The force appears to be strong at $1,175. Still think these young Jedi will be no match for the Empire’s shorting.

  48. Newtrader

    Couple of points and then a question.
    – Dday 120 USX, I still disagree
    -the probability of gold going down to $750-$900 is comparable to that of gold at $1800-$1900. Both are pretty wild speculations.
    -most likely scenario gold bounces between $1100-$1400 for the next year or two. Who knows what happens after that, war, economic crisis/stability.

    Here are a couple of thought provoking observations and questions.

    If we look at gold versus jpy we see a stable price going back five years. Japan has one of the lowest inflation tastes in the world does this mean the actual value of gold has not changed since peaking back in 2011?

    Why do the miners get killed when usx goes up? They trade gold in usd so it will cost them less to operate in countries outside of the usa.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Answer to your question.
      Point A: Your revenue is $1,200 an ounce your costs are $1,000 an ounce. Profit $200 an ounce.
      Now the $ rises 1%. and Gold falls 1%.Even if costs go down by 1% Your new profits are $1188-$990=$198…down by 1%

      So that is the crux.
      This is made worse by two things. 10-40% of Gold miners gold production comes from the US. that cost DOES NOT go down as it is USD denominated. So profits fall by more than 1%

      Second, After labour energy costs are the highest secondary costs for Gold companies. Currently Gold companies are still showing numbers from much lower oil prices. As this goes up their base costs should increase.

      1. Newtrader

        That’s a great answer, thanks for that. I would just add that as oil goes up so does the value of CAD. Now I know CAD does not have a big weight to affect USX but higher oil does still have a negative impact on USX (since CAD value is highly reliant on oil prices). I guess it would be a lesser of two evils for the miners.

        Any thoughts why gold and jpy have been horizontal since 2011?

        1. duckwhorocks1

          Not a clue. I have noticed that too.
          Perhaps because both JPY and Gold yield zero 🙂
          I know that is not the answer as Gold rose in JPY terms prior to that.

  49. jpeterman

    Duck,
    You have any oil positions at this point?
    OPEC deal doesn’t appear to do anything for the fundamentals.
    You have any thoughts for oil price over next days weeks?

    1. duckwhorocks1

      No trading positions. Missed the boat on CPG…was planning to buy it but did not.
      I have some long term positions in OIH, ESV and NE but that is for looking multiple years out.

  50. duckwhorocks1

    Coming from someone who was a lone call for USD/JPY bull……this is just mind boggling stuff.
    The strength in this pair has been out of the world.
    Almost stopped out of EUR/USD for a small loss.

    1. barney

      That link actually made me laugh.

      Ducky, just close your eyes and pick up some nugt this week and then sell it when you’ve made some $, it will cheer you up no end, you may even crack a smile lol. 😉

      1. duckwhorocks1

        I laugh a lot and make people laugh too. You may not believe it but people tell me I am the funniest guy they know.
        Look, I have nothing against going long the metals or stocks. I have traded them both ways countless times. It is some of the ridiculous stuff I hear from gold bugs that makes me wanna reach for bug spray.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        He will be back to make give some great commentary about how stretched this cycle is. Priceless stuff. Don’t miss it

  51. duckwhorocks1

    Gold bugs at $1,170.
    “Hold the door!!!”
    “Hold the door!!!”
    “Hold the door!!!”
    “Hold the door!!!”
    “Hold the door!!!”

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Fine 🙂
        There is strong momentum divergence on the USD/JPY high which could point to a good bottom for Gold. Wish you luck

          1. duckwhorocks1

            Not something i have ever traded. That market is drier than the Sahara.
            I had an interest in it once..considering I eat so much of it…made sense…..but just too illiquid for me.
            Sorry.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      I think he is really hurting and making all the mistakes of a newbie trader. I would be kind to him.

      1. WallStreetJesus

        Robert has a lot of company right now.

        I am long platinum. Its a long term position. $900 platinum seems like a bargain (long term). It sucks watching it go down every day.

  52. Dday

    Here is another Dollar chart, to show how powerful the recent breakout has been. The dollar was moving sideways for two years. I think it still has legs to go to 120, again it looks like a perfect example of a cup and handle. This pretends more weakness for gold if the dollar up gold down pattern continues.

    http://invst.ly/2uz5p

    Dollar target 120 technicals portraying a repeat of the last powerful rally, July 2014.

    Gold $800-$900, still within 61.8% retracement of entire bull rally.

    Hold cash and wait!!

    1. Newtrader

      Dday, that graph tells me the dollar has been horizontal since mid 2014. Take a look at 5 year chart of the EUR/CHF and tell me what the euro did at that exact time USD climbed. That was rough economic times in the EU with the Greece bailout. The second jump you see in the USD was mainly because of the sterling dropping after brexit and the third is after a Trump victory and a likely rate hike coming in December. What can we conclude here? Mine is that there is very little data driving USD strength, rather weakening of GBP and EUR are the main drivers. I do believe the USD gained a lot of steam since the election but personally I feel it has been more emotional than anything. I use the JPY and CHF as my controls as those are two countries with the lowest inflation in the world (which means stable currencies).

      Lastly take a look at the countries who stand to lose the most at lowered gold prices and tell me if they would let that happen.

      http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/05/26/top-10-countries-with-the-largest-gold-reserves/2/#4f6c4dd215c3

      1. Dday

        Newtrader,
        4th Italian referendum,
        5th French Elections,
        6th German elections,
        7th Gaining dutch far right momentum,
        Don’t worry there is plenty more turmoil in EU to come to drive the dollar higher

        When you say they won’t let it happen. Who are they? and what makes you think they have any control?

        1. Newtrader

          Dday, I agree with all of those probabilities. Having said that I’ll still bet you a magical burrito usd won’t reach 120.

          I’ll clarify on “they”. I’m not saying any country would manipulate gold to make it more expensive. I’m just saying the largest economies have the largest investments in gold so devaluation is unlikely.

  53. Gary Post author

    FWIW I just recommended any subs who bought the trend line break, exit today at basically break even. Stick with the safer strategy of waiting for a weekly swing.

  54. Bv

    Sounds ominous, please don’t tell me after all what you’ve said, duck and the bears are right and we’re going a lot lower (upturned smiley) How do they keep getting it right and you so wrong Gary? I’m beginning to lose faith. I’ve always thought all this money printing had to lead to higher gold prices. Now I’m not so sure.

  55. Goild

    Yeap, the prudent play is to get out of the gold market today. The resistance has kind of broken.
    Something tells me that tomorrow we will have a big jump. So I will keep my NUGT shares. How bold and stupid am I…

  56. Goild

    While someone said that some Europeans expect Euro/USD to touch 1, that will be a benchmark that will hold things for a while. This means a near top for the USD would be around 1.10. Hardly 1.2 as this would be a major event.

  57. Alexandru Popovici

    back to my computer and I see I’ve got stoped out of my long gold position so that I am 100% cash.
    To resume shorting stocks on swing high.

    Happy Aniverssary to all Andrews, Andreeas!
    Away from my comp again.
    Cheers!

  58. jonsyl

    well, I’ll just take the opposite end of that trade Alex and Gary, looks to me like if you’re out I”m in. Bought gold with tight leash.

    As to shorting swing high in equities, we’ve done nothing but swing high for the past three weeks, don’t understand that comment, suppose to be scorch earth by now.

  59. jdavid2

    So it’s over. Are we talking long PM trades or SMT subscription service or both???
    No need to answer that.

  60. jonsyl

    Any gold close below 1150 and time to cover, got to give it some room to scare the last bears out before reversing to the upside. Right now miners holding like s##t to the blanket and not confirming gold’s retest drop.
    Equit;y market keeps looking tired but will wait a bit to short, need a downswing reversal

  61. jeffd5584

    One thing about these markets nowadays, that I didn’t observe years back…They set up for the “binary moves” by essentially chopping and churning sideways for days/weeks at a time, then a rip will emerge and most aren’t positioned well for it. It’s a “non participation” type of market. Sell off for 6-8 days in a row, then rip higher on the ninth day, negating all of the range from the previous week, etc…It can be observed in most markets and more than likely the results of a hollowed out market, too many algo’s competing for the same scraps, CB’s constantly revising their “plans”, etc, etc…

    And here we are about to enter early December, and just like Dec, 2015, it’s another rate hike looming (once again at the auspicious EOY time frame), with all of the hoopla about “seasonal’s”, etc…remarkable how people forgot that those “seasonal’s” went up in smoke last year in a variety of asset classes due to the FOMC rate hike…

    1. zbigkid

      Dude. You still DONT GET IT ! We want you to go over there, not for us to go there. We are here to see what Gary has to say, not what you have to see. See that’s your biggest problem- its about all you. So go over to your blog, post all you want, and see how many actually show up. You have to work a hell of lot harder to get an audience, on your own, and not using Gary’s audience, and trashing Gary and his audience by your moronic posting. We really don’t want to see you here again. CAPICHE ?????

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