73 thoughts on “FALSE RALLY?

  1. tater123

    Yes, very likely they are suckering in retail. Though, that doesn’t mean gold is going up when the market tanks and gold is our positions.

    Drunkenmiller sold all his gold. Someone you have been speaking highly of for a while.

    Just another red flag for gold though I do think gold gets a boost … hopefully! 💪💪💪💪

  2. chrisG

    ALex, good call. Actually for Gary, he has been calling for dollar to roll over many times, and it just doesnt. Reminds me of analyst calls on certain stocks, kept saying buy calls , but it just couldnt go up. Also, Gary is sounding like his 2013 gold calls. Kept saying gold would bottom, but gold kept dropping. So, now , he kept calling for dollar to drop, but dollar kept rallying.

    ALso, he is wrong to say most are bullish on dollar. Actually, with trumps victory, people are bearish on the dollar.

    1. Pedestrian

      Interestingly enough, the last time commercials were this bearish the dollar it ended up soaring 25%!!!!

  3. daverobson

    Gary where are we in terms of daily cycle count for gold. How many more days before we reach dcl? Another 3 to 5. Days ?

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    GOLDILOCKS, CHRIS, thank you to you both!
    Yes, all of us go through cycles as well: have some periods of astonishing ability to forecast and others souring us.

  5. duckwhorocks1

    $1,260. Called it at $1,320 when the “bull train” was apparently getting away from me.
    Sentiment is bullish on USD…but more bullish on Yen. It is USD/JPY sentiment you need to watch. We got another $60 bucks of downside left in Gold although $1,220 could hold.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Don’t see that as a big point on the charts but as long as we mimic the 2002 cycle in HUI which would get GDX to at least $20.5, I can accept that. Good luck.

    1. Pedestrian

      Pencil me in for sub 1200 before the next solid bounce materializes. Call it 1195 if you need more precision although that’s just an eyeball guess. Pretty sure that’s where we are heading based on my counts. It is the late October 2015 peak I am targeting for a bottom if you are curious.

  6. Don

    Huge performance difference between the Nasdaq and S&P. Money is rushing from one sector to another, almost in panic fashion. I doubt this is going to end well for the bulls. Gold ETFs are a screaming buy as in silver and platinum.

  7. zbigkid

    Gold has been Trumped, by Trump. The thing is, from here on out, the FED will be forced to raise rates by the markets. Just look at the shift and whats happening in bond yields. December Fed hike is inevitable.

    Druckenmiller, sold all his gold the night of the election, obviously when it was up around $1340. That is the peak now, after the 2011 peak. Gold will fold, and drop lower and lower, probably slowly, as the interest rates keep putting upward pressure on the dollar. Where do you think money will flow to now, when US interest rates are far higher than other countries’ interest rates, many of which are lower or even negative ? US massive infrastructure spending is a foregone conclusion, and with the strength of the dollar, more debt can be issued than ever before. Tax breaks, and so forth will be such that international firms will be repatriating massive amounts of dollars. If you know anything about Trump, you know that will happen. Markets will bet on that ahead of time, so look for a continued ramping up of stocks. Some sectors will lose, but many others that have been lagging will win. There is no bull market in gold folks. At best, its sideways, and down. All the horrors of Trump’s election win, will not come to pass, and markets are speaking loudly on that. Many people who buy huge amounts of gold, in the past, like Druckenmiller, will be now selling it, and put that money where US dollars are more likely to flow. The election uncertainty, until now, was what was driving gold this year, more than anything, especially with the prospects looking like (by the media manipulation) that a Hillary win was defacto. So so many were wrong on that. If you failed to position accordingly, you missed out. there is no 3-4 month rally in gold coming folks. Gary was wrong.

  8. Dreamer

    Would Trump reset the gold price to $10,000/oz to reduce/mitigate the $20T in debt and to re-inflate the economy. Pay lots of the debt off with inflated dollars. Then after he accomplishes this after enough time passes, he could release the gold price back to the market. This assumes the U.S. has the gold they say they have.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      US is just at 100% debt to GDP. Japan is over 220%. Still with zero percent bond yields.
      Maybe you should visit that retard FOFOA’s site. He probably has a few 70,000 word articles where he shares the same idea….although not so briefly as you.
      No offense intended at you……just that thought.

    2. Pedestrian

      No Dreamer. Trump will never revalue the dollar like that. He would not be permitted to even if such an insane idea popped into his head. Doing so would be a defacto admission the dollar is worthless and the global currency system would be plunged into the Dark Ages. It would be utter chaos and the US would lose control of both its debt markets and reserve status at once. You need to realize that under a pure fiat system as we now enjoy that there is no theoretical limit to how many dollars can be printed as long as the rest of the world accepts them. And just to objectively prove my point I would note that the Fed has expanded its balance sheet to over 4 trillion dollars and gold fell through it all. It is falling again. Who in the world would give up a franchise that allowed you to have MORE buying power versus gold even as you massively expanded your debt? Nobody, that’s who.

        1. Pedestrian

          Right on Dreamer. Some of the guys that have been calling for 10, 20 and 50 thousand dollar gold are just plain out nuts. They have no idea what a reserve currency is or why its still functional. My best advice is to avoid those guys at all costs because they send everyone astray.

          On a positive note for gold; we are coming up fast on the yens 200 EMA for (JPYUSD) and it coincides with a very bullish crossover of the 50 and 200. That’s where I see the bounce coming so we may have kind of a nasty gold sell-off over the coming days as we approach that target. The bounce should however be quite respectable so I am preparing for an entry as soon as we arrive there. The cycle counts seem to be timing up nicely as well. Check it on any decent chart you can find. Stockcharts is OK. Anyway, you will immediately see what I mean and appreciate why I am only bearish within limits. The Yen on a weekly chart displays a beautiful cup and handle formation there is well (a pattern that is in dispute here as others prefer to call it something else). No matter though, we seem to all have drawn similar conclusions. So gold is shit for a little longer but turns quite bullish afterwards. I will get you a date as we approach the target if you are interested.

  9. duckwhorocks1

    No one saw this coming in Gold….except about half the people here…
    GDX taking another bath. I think $19.50-$20.75 entirely possible.
    And yes to all those unflagging bulls here…It has now been 4 months since I said GDX will not surpass $32 for at least 1 year while Gary expected otherwise.

      1. ras

        Dust and jdst have been the place to be for a while. Likely they will continue to be so for a while longer. My compliments to all the folks who do their own due diligence without following anybody blindly.
        After a drubbing of this kind, we can expect a bit of backing and filling before the trend decides to change. Market is a slow animal except at extremes.

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    Gold=2159.
    If Hillary had won the elections I would not have dumped my shorts gold&treasuries + long stocks yesterday and now I would have covered my short gold position, at 2159.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      DCLs in gold/miners tomorrow.
      I expect USX to take a breather tomorrow and on Monday –> too much pessimism in the PM market and too much on USX’ all of a sudden.

      Actually, 2 days ago I wrote “Advice for swing traders” and things play as expected. Nothing has fortunately changed in markets after yesterday,

      YCLs will come later in a few weeks.

  11. Dday

    Trump elected, dollar up markets up gold down. That’s what I can see with my eyes, forget cycles, profits massively down, gdx, and anything related to gold. Its dropped through $1275 and then some. Have to face reality here, no manipulation, just wrong predictions. Wait and hold gold/ miners for five months, turn off your computers. Turn them back on and behold a 50-80% loss, maybe. Careful out there having faith in ” analysts” gold can go up or down simple as that. It sucks, investors pilling into the dollar as a safe haven, but its there in front of your eyes what more do you need to see. Gold supports continually broken, while the dollar breaks resistance… good luck blindly believing gold will bring you riches.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Thanks!
      I see that $1,200 breaking to reset “This is a big bull market mentality”. We need a few more going bankrupt holding the JNUG an NUGT stocks without understanding how 3X works on the downside.
      Probably coincide with Fed raising rates OR Japan doing more QE and sending USD/JPY to 109-110

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    yes, indeed, Duck.
    Particularly the FOMC minutes to come in less than 2w WILL PUT USX ON FIRE, IT WILL GO PARABOLLIC, and gold will have the 2nd and last episode of “going to hell”, as I was saying.
    That should exhaust USX, so that I think it will top and gold will bottom before the next FOMC meeting in 1 month.

  13. Robert

    Mjority of everyone prediction here wrong including Gary. Only this Alex guy been right. Can anyone answer how is this still a bull market for gold? It sucks everything has to be timed perfectly…buy and hold has been nothing but losses for miners

    1. duckwhorocks1

      Come on dude. I nailed the decline from $30 to $22 and even said you will definitely get one bounce to $25 before year-end when you asked.
      I think a lot of others also were generally bearish on gold…which was right.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      Robet. Thank you!
      I personally think that the tool Gary is using for sentiment produces too many errors and he relies on it way too much.

      Gold is in a bull market. It just needs, as Gary said on other occasions, to drive both bulls and especially bears nuts.
      DO NOT GO LONG GOLD/MINERS UNTIL GOLD HITS 1182!
      Good night! I’m going to sleep now.

      1. Robert

        I am in big losses Alex. You think we get a nice bounce first before 1200? I need to get out around GDX 25

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    PEDESTRIAN, we’ve been thought to thought 🙂
    You mentioned about USX soaring big while I was answering DuckW about USX to go parabollic on FOMC minutes in 12-13 days from now 🙂

    1. Pedestrian

      Pretty cool hunh. Like minds thinking alike. I have a fantastic chart on the dollar that gives me real confidence on that call. The euro is toast in 2017. She’s going down like the Titanic and the dollar has a long way to go before it hits a top.

  15. Robert

    Honestly tho guys any one here actually make money on miners? To me its too difficult. Stocks and oil move more linear. Gold miners is just pure chop and fake break ups/downs and then bam they hit u with a strong move down or up. Its almost impossible to get the moves pure trickery

      1. Robert

        Ok. Where is Gary? Man what a bloodbath and possibly more to come. GL to you guys I think this is it for me

    1. Surf City

      The only thing that looks positive here on my 10min chart is that I am seeing divergences on both the RSI and MACD (for now).

    1. Surf City

      Silver is moving with Copper as an industrial metal right now, IMO. That is another potential divergence from Gold and the Miners as Silver often leads at turns.

        1. Pedestrian

          it stopped dead on the 50 though. I would be a buyer but will give it another day to prove itself first.

          1. rupp

            No worries. I was just now looking at it and thinking to myself, “which MA did he say”. lol. Came back to check. Blew through the 50. Kind of alarming since I’d been tracking SLW since as an indicator for silver.

          2. rupp

            This reply system is bunk. It won’t let me reply directly to Pedestrian’s comments. Anyway, the main difference I see is that SLW was hanging in no man’s land between 50 and 200 MA. SLV is sitting on the 50 and theoretically should be caught at 16.66 by the 200.

        2. rupp

          Good catch, SLW has been one of my main indicators since last year, but I stopped tracking it after this breakdown in metals.

          1. Pedestrian

            Thanks Rupp. I may be nuts but I am close to turning bullish metals again. Silver may be giving us an early taste as it often does with gold not following too far behind.

          2. Pedestrian

            Sorry Rupp. I have to apologize because I was looking at a different chart when I wrote that comment about the 50. Not sure what it was now either. I might be getting a little cross eyed today. Forgive me for the error.

  16. theworldwithoutfacebook

    Closed out final positions, cant take any more pain. Not blowing out my account here. Horrible feeling tho, Was up, went out to lunch yesterday and by time I could log back in miners were in a freefall. no chance tog get out so just took the loss today. arrrg.

  17. Anthonyo

    Stocks indices Divergence:
    NAZ is leading the way, entities are selling the NAZ and buying the Dow … on the day when Donald met Hussain … I bet on the down side as this stock market is prime for a retracted long fall…..

    Ditto for OIL: shows inherent weakness, ….Oil down -2% today;
    Oil giveth back whatever she had gaineth the other day and more. Oil is gonna fall under own weight.
    Donadl will announce plan to unleash energy production in US… oil price will deflate. Has farther to fall baby.

  18. chrisG

    $hui is making a double HS. Smaller one already break, sitting on neckline of the bigger one HS. If broke, ugly.

    1. Pedestrian

      It should bounce right about 170 by my estimation Chris. So not too much more downside ahead as long as 25 dollars more does not scare you. Looking for the 618 retrace at worst.

  19. chrisG

    Lol, ya, as long as doesn’t scare. My thoughts are, rates skyrocketing, so PMs less attractive. But trump wants to build America. So basic materials will rally. Ie, basic materials will outperform PM

  20. chrisG

    I have rarely seen silver being so resilient versus gold. And I have never seen silver outperforming miners so much. It usually doesn’t end well for silver. It will tend to play catch up to the downside. And when it does, it does so very quickly

  21. duckwhorocks1

    Some food for thought.
    In 2008 it took 7 ounces of silver to buy a barrel of oil, now it takes about 2.5.
    One gold ounce bought 6 barrels of oil, now it buys 27.
    Platinium bought two ounces of Gold now it buys less than 3/4th of an ounce.
    5 pounds of copper bought an ounce of Silver, now it is closer to 8.
    Finally 1 ounce of Gold bought 125 Bushels of Corn and now it buys 360.

    Look at all those ratios and tell me the Gold and Silver at least in comparison to every other commodity do not look expensive. If we are to have real inflation the rest of the commodities HAVE to catch up or Gold is gonna have to join them in the crapper by going sub $1,000.

    Have a wonderful evening.

  22. Steffmeister

    Yepp, agree 100% with Gary, this is a fake rally.

    And yes I also think that Donald Trump is fake, sorry to say that. There will be no real change, more of the same.

    Gold&Silvers future is very bright imo. We are in a waiting mode for wave 3 to start.

      1. Pedestrian

        Good luck with that Slep. Seems your indicator is broken because gold is crashing just as I had predicted. Only one of us has a real indicator and I think its mine.

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