1. ras

    Gold and miners likely finished DT and beginning UT. Now on 12th week for GDX. Odds are against a lower low. Do your own due diligence.

  2. Dday

    Technicals on the daily RSI, MACD, STOCH and TSI quickly becomming overbought for silver and gold. Makes me nervous for a sustained rally, but currently bullish.

  3. ras

    During initial thrust, stochs and rsi can stay elevated. Macd looks fine, with overhead room before reaching OB condition. Just my opinion.

  4. Gary Post author

    Here is the unfortunate fact. 90% of traders never make a dime off a bull market. The vast majority just lack the emotional control to ride a bull market. They end up buying at tops, and even worse, they sell at bottoms.

    This is all you need to know to make money from a bull market: In a bull market all timing mistakes will get corrected.

    Unfortunately most will just never be able to learn that lesson.

    It’s probably best to jettison the weak minded and emotional traders now, and a great many of them did fall during this ICL. Those traders might as well stick to the stock market they don’t have what it takes to make money in a gold bull market.

    I’m going to guarantee by the time this bull market is over the SMT will be so far ahead of virtually every other newsletter writer in the world that we won’t just be in a different ball park, but we’ll be in an entirely different city and state.

    The winner in a bull market isn’t determined by who traded the last cycle perfectly. The winner is the traders that can grasp this rule and use it to make insane amounts of money.

    “In a bull market all timing mistakes will get corrected.”

    1. ras

      Gary, it is difficult to argue with motherhood or apple pie. I trade only what I see. I am happy with the middle 70%. Folks who are more talented than me can have the rest. The most unhelpful tendency in trading is the urge to do bottom fishing and top scalping. Next is fighting price and suffering huge 50% draw downs, because of reluctance to revise previous stance. Technical indicators DO work, but they work differently in trending and trading markets. Method, patience, discipline and risk management are a must for everyone. Above all, price is no respecter of persons.

      1. Gary Post author

        Ahh if only it was so easy to “make the middle 70%”.

        The problem is one never knows where the top will occur. And without that information it’s impossible to know what the middle 70% will be.

        If price is stuck in a trading range (which is about 90% of the time) there is no middle 70%.

        1. ras

          I do what works for me consistently. Everyone is free to do likewise. Please feel free to disagree. That is what makes the market.

  5. ras

    Most importantly, buy signals triggered on weekly charts for gld, gdx and gdxj. Weekly sell triggered for dust. These signals do not occur often. But, when they do, they deserve attention, especially on 13th week with price already close to lower weekly BB. Just my read. Everyone, please do your own due diligence.

    1. Dday

      I agree, this time i got in when the technicals were oversold. I waited a coulple of weeks and now looking good for a rally. The only concern is how fast the RSI is rising, stochastic already overbought. But I’m happy i took the plunge.

      1. Dday

        The only other concern is the limp reaction of the miners, normally i would expect a greater increase to match the pm’s.

  6. bill

    Well the trolls and you know who you are have missed a nearly $2 move in the mining stocks so far… but you’ve been doing this a long time you know ha ha ha ha

  7. Dreamer

    As Gary said repeatedly, the EWs and others got left behind, will never admit it and later lie about it.

  8. CooLoser

    Boy the number of comments on the Public Blog appear to be directly correlated to the rising price of Gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      The metals clearly had a bloodbath phase. Just the comments here on the blog the last few weeks confirm that. The number of people that panicked and sold at the bottom confirm it. The number of people still expecting lower lows confirms it.

      Every ICL that I’ve ever seen 90% of traders were still looking for lower lows and got left behind, then couldn’t pull the trigger at higher levels. It happens every time.

      1. Gary Post author

        The second mistake everyone makes is selling very quickly because they have become conditioned to expect disappointment during the ICL. So they get left behind twice.

        Like I said 90% of traders never make a dime off a bull market.

        1. Robert

          I think I get wat ur saying now. Because gold made higher high and it’s getting late in cycle there is good chance it will be RT. Miners look toppy now so will load up on pullback. High chance now gold alrdy bottomed and no new low coming

  9. theworldwithoutfacebook

    I exited my miners this morning with a modest gain. I would have held longer had it not been for FOMC tomorrow. I also feel Trump is likely to top out in the polls, Hillary should regain a portion of the ground she lost in a mean revision. Seems like good place to sell, Better entry ahead as volatility is the only certainty ahead of elections.

    1. Dday

      Have to agree the miners look weak compared with earlier in the year. I would have expected much larger gains with silver up nearly 4% gold 1.4%. Will see im in profit but not convinced this is the beginning of a larger move.

  10. chrisG

    Yum yum for this PMs move. Like I said, no need to over analyze. No need to pray for the crystal ball. The next big move wins. Whichever way, don’t fight it by over analysing. Very Glad it is up move. Up wins.

      1. chrisG

        Closing prices? Na, doesn’t matter. If you know how to trade, this position is a risk free trade already. So…. Only upside, no downside.

  11. chrisG

    Watch copper. Trying to break out for many months. This could be the sustainable move. Which could also mean no big drop in stock market?

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    Copper should also move up along with stocks in a new IC on Hillary’s win, except that the new IC will be short-lived and will fail to deliver the YCL later in Dec/Jan.

    Gold and miners show distribution – smart money are selling into this strength driven by the temporary USX correction. Very risky being long gold/miners here.
    Besides, USX 38-fib retracement is near, at 97.28, so that the scope of gold to move higher is limited.

    1. Pedestrian

      Good points Alex. What are you looking at for distribution if you don’t mind the question? I have a few doubts here too. Da Boyz are a clever lot of pit rats and it would not surprise me a bit that they engineer a sharp run in gold just one day prior to an FOMC meeting where we will likely get guidance on a December rate hike.

      Then slam us all down again the very next day.

      Actually, there is no guarantee we don’t get a hike at Wednesdays 2:00 PM press conference. Its doubtful so close to an election of course but does a hike really favour one candidate over the other? Maybe it makes no difference at all.

      Meanwhile it does appear that Trump pulling ahead of Hillary in the Washington Post survey this morning has been the fuel that ignited gold and put some Voodoo on equity markets. One point lead ain’t much but for a change he is ahead in a tight race and so the S&P has now broken down from its nearly two month wedge pattern.

      I am puzzled that gold jumped ahead of my Yen indicator but that’s life. This rally looks pretty strong so far and perhaps gold buyers have just moved in anticipation. The market is forward looking after all and everyone worth his salt had his eyes on that Yen 200 week MA already.

      I might have taken my own advice and bought earlier with that in mind. But no matter. If this is the real deal there is mountains of money to be made anyway so not much is lost. A couple percent and no more thus far.

  13. ras

    No point in over analysing political stuff and FOMC stuff. We can only know what the news media is willing to reveal. Best to follow smart money flowing into majors like abx,aem,nem,fnv,gold,rgid, etc.The time to be afraid was during the 2 mini bounces in September. Once buy signals are triggered in the weekly and daily time frame, intraday gyrations are not of much consequence. Just my opinion.

    If help is needed, one could subscribe to a news letter like Gary’s. Just understand his approach: “No losing trades in a bull market”.

  14. bill

    Old turkey Gary and added hundreds of shares during this ICL LONG AND STONG ill add more if opportunity knocks

  15. Dday

    “No losing trades in a bull market”.
    The all important question, are we in a bull market? Some would say gold needs to clear $1400, to prove it.

      1. Dday

        Thanks yea i guess the thinking is gold needs to breach the trendline stretching back from 2011/2012 at $1400. Otherwise still in a bear market rally. Its a valid point, break above $1400 would put the bears to sleep.

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    on distribution wornings:
    – when I was telling people I had dumped my gold at 1335 back in late June I was laughed at. Of course gold went to about 1400 in July BUT: LOOKING NOW BACK IN THE HINDSIGHT WAS IT REALLY WORTH TAKING THE RISK OF RUNNING THE LONG-GOLD POSITION FOR A BIT LONGER ?!

    – when I touted here that I was dumping my stocks, some 4w ago, AND I WAS WARNING OF SMART-MONEY DISTRIBUTION, people were disregardding me calling me a “technical” with the inuendo that technical-inferences are wrong more often than rare.


  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Dear David, I am convinced that metals’ run has nothing to do with anything else than USX’ descent to its DCL.
    ( I dont think Trump will win. )

    1. ras

      Hi, Alex, let us leave politics to TV talking heads. I am not rooting for anyone. I just follow price. If price requires, I will adjust my stance to suit. It is not very productive to worry about why price is doing what it is doing. Look at the way the big guns are blazing: abx,aem,gg,nem,fnv,gold,rgld,etc. For a while, the mantra could be buy dips, until it stops working. Just my opinion. Please feel free to disagree. Cheers.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Pedestrian, there are several items of distribution.
    To be quick:
    – divergences are underway, especially USX is getting lower (AND ESPCIALLY CLOSE TO THE 97.28 MARK OF 38-FIB) while gold is getting sideways.

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks Alex. I see exactly what you are referring to now. Have you noticed the symmetry of the GDX chart by any chance? If you are looking at a daily you can see that should there be a reversal around the 26 dollar level that the chart would have created a giant head and shoulders. I am pretty big on mirrors during the decline phase on any chart so if the right hand side remains reasonably faithful to the left hand side it tells me with some confidence where the future is headed. Anyway, that’s my worry point around 26 dollars should things go South again in the next few days.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    Stocks to reach their DCL tomorrow !

    – A new shortenedone-daily-cycle intermediary cycle will ensue on Hillary’s win –> stocks to advance rapidly in a fantastic dead-cat bounce.
    – YCL in December/January.

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      You can’t have stocks and USD on a daily cycle low on the same day. Burning the USD down is the only thing keeping the US markets up. They’ll gut the USD before they allow another market crash.

  20. ras

    Clear, unmistakable weekly buy signal by BPGDM today, after a clear, unmistakable weekly sell signal in mid August.

  21. Alexandru Popovici

    RAS, I know these and they are enough for me (in addition to few others):
    – gold, miners and USD are late in their DCs (particularly USD),
    – USD is very close to reach its 38-fib, hence SCOPE FOR ITS DECLINE AND CONVERSLY FOR GOLD’S RUN ARE LIMITED,
    – USD is extremely right translated so that a higher high is ensured.
    – tomorrow is FED’s no-news pro-Hillary announcement –> catalyzer for reversals,
    – advance inminers is low-volume
    – and others…

    Check the History for this statistical relevance

        1. rayalex123

          Radomski with Sunshine Profits and Jeff Kern with SKI both agree with you and are preparing to short. I’m a subscriber and Kern has been spot on the entire bull market. One more drop into around the time of the election, then gold and the miners take off.

  22. Gary Post author

    It never changes. 90% of traders never make a dime in a bull market.

    Oh well there have to be losers in the world.

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    Dear All,

    No I do not have a site, I do not have a FB account… nor a smartphone – I do have a Samsung E1100, though – one of the few great phones still arround.
    I write here both out of boredom and pleasure when I am at a laaarge computer – I dislike small devices.

    I do not use any special methodology. All my tools are well-known.

    But more importantly, it is RISK MANAGEMENT: I am wrong on most of my trades (I have a reliability of my system standing 40%-50%) but the important thing is THAT I TAKE LOSSES QUICKLY WHEN I HAVE THEM – they never escalate.

    The only major risk I run is that of a potential solar burst to kill most of electronic devices (satelites and stuff) and that not even taken alone would not hurt me: it would also require me to be massively long a risk-on asset at that time.
    Otherwise, my equuity can never go down more than -3% in a month ! Outside this it is impossible.

  24. Alexandru Popovici

    Monthly swing high in oil !
    Though, oil will advance first alongside stocks before falling further.

    Cheking out! Good night, folks!

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    One more thing before I close my computer on your last comment above: I kept on warning people of USD’s imminent rise to a higher high, to its YCH or at least a break of the weekly down trendline.

    AmantedeTeclas asked you about my persistent bullish comments on USD and you answered him simply: “He will be proven wrong.”

    Gary, who has been wrong ?!!

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