1. Gary Post author

    Miners have joined platinum and broken their intermediate trend line.

    Copper has also broken its intermediate down trend.

    The metal sector is flashing buy signals. In a bull market an intermediate rally will usually last 3-4 months before topping. And sentiment usually reaches bullish extremes, often above 80% bulls. As of Friday sentiment was dead neutral at 59%.

  2. Gary Post author

    The COT levels for the general stock market, especially the NDX contracts are improving but still too bearish for me to try to pick a bottom just yet.

    Sentiment needs to get more bearish as well. As of Friday traders were dead neutral on stocks at 50% bulls. I would like to see sentiment at least below 40%, and 35% bulls would be better before trying to call a bottom.

    We need a real bloodbath phase. One that scares the pants off everyone and makes it almost impossible to pull the trigger on a long trade. If we can get that this week then we will be set up for stocks to produce the next leg up and for the Nasdaq to finally deliver a breakout above the 2000 high.

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        It depends a bit on what You wanna gain. For me the stock market is not the place to become rich. As soon as You get greedy You may get hurt a lot. Never bet too much! For me it is just a support. I don’t like the headaches.

        So what I generally do is: I try to buy only when stuff hits oversold on the RSI, but I don’t go all in. I never assume it will go in my favor. I will split my capital-to-be-deployed with the first position maybe 1,5 the size of all the others that will come afterwards…well depending on the asset You trade. This downturn in silver I traded with 7 or 8 positions. And now I am in the green and am just holding…not adding anything…cause it may turn against me again. I was also lucky and got the PGMs almost on the recent bottom. So, it would be a winner now if I sold on the assumption we are in a bear market.

        When I trade VIX-options for example and the VIX is superlow already ( compared historically) I will put a bigger chunk at the supposed bottom. But nothing really behaves like the VIX. It is totally different.

    1. ras

      That is a good beginning. But, we can stay OB for a while as price keeps going up and vice versa. With that as a starting point, one can fine tune using other daily and intraday indicators. Using cycles or any other single indicator in the stand alone mode, can be downright risky and prone to huge draw downs as experienced by many in the past. A good trading opportunity is one where multiple bells ring loudly and clearly. At that point, one may have to pay a bit higher price than the folks doing bottom fishing. That is much better than experiencing huge draw downs. It is equally important to look into all major sectors and avoid exclusive focus on pm sector alone. For, example, folks who kept additional watch on labd, tza, uvxy, dwiti, etc. recently have done a lot better than those with primary focus on the metal sector.

      There is no single best way to play the market. It all depends on one’s own personal situation and circumstances. For an analyst marketing his letter, it is perfectly understandable to go through the predict/correct cycle continuously with videos, etc. For an individual investor, prediction is totally unnecessary. Just keep eyes peeled as price enters a buy/sell zone and pull the trigger in the reactive mode when a signal is triggered by multiple indicators in multiple leading stocks in the sector in multiple time frames. This is just one way. There may be other ways. Pick the one that works best for you. Cheers.

      1. Pedestrian

        Yes, and given the 18 dollar drop in the last 30 minutes since gold markets opened we might just be seeing that 1275 in the next half hour if this rate keeps up. Gold looking kind of crashy all of a sudden as stock futures soar. So much for the technicals over at Goldtadise. Except for one guy they were all wrong the last few days. Guess I will go back to reading the signs from throwing dirty old chicken bones against the dirt wall in the basement. Seems that Voodoo has a better success rate.

          1. Pedestrian

            Who was buying? I am short along with Alex and one or two others. Recall that my bet was to sell platinum before it hit 1000 and GDX near 26. Both went well so far. As for the dollar and euro? Well I guess that call pretty much speaks for itself.

          2. Pedestrian

            If we don’t laugh we might cry Robert. But Holy Moses look at gold dropping. We really will hit 1275 today. Just 3 more buckeroonie’s to go. Damned if these chicken bones don’t do wonders for trading.

  3. Robert

    There it is gold’s daily cycle decline has begun! It was very risky for bulls to be chasing so late. Now if Hilary wins the decline could be bloodbath.

  4. Dreamer

    As I said when Comey reopened the Hillary investigation that one of the options was this was a hoax and Comey would clear her again before the election.

    The corruption in Washington D.C. is so insidious we have to do something.

    1. s29

      Very interesting and unexpected that Hillary is cleared again. I don’t think this will prevent Trump from winning. The damage around the e-mail scandal is already done, and FBI clearing again doesn’t equal regained trust in Hillary by the voter. Maybe even to the contrary. Trump was already gaining momentum because of the Obamacare premium hikes.

      I wonder what the FBI-agents opposing Comey in the coming days will do.

      When it comes to the market, I really can’t do any reasonable prediction at the moment.

    2. TraderPete

      There is something that we can do. Keep buying physical gold and silver, especially during these smashes. Do what China, Russia, and India are doing, i.e., buy on dips. They are very astute and very smart people, smarter apparently than we here in the West, i.e., Europe and the U.S. It is interesting that their governments encourage their citizens to buy gold and silver, especially China, whereas our government, the U.S, discourages us to do the same. Let’s follow their example and buy as much as we can to protect our wealth and our finances. After all, gold and silver are the real money, they have been for more than 5,000 years; and as someone once said (I think it was Voltaire): paper money or currencies always seek their true value, zero.

      1. Pedestrian

        Gold has not been money for 5000 years. Get your facts straight. Jesus Pete, don’t just make stuff up and write it as if its fact. At least say your comment is a theory or personal opinion. Don’t mislead people here. Maybe you should be banned for lying about history.

  5. Gary Post author

    Just keep it simple. Buy when the weekly stochastics are oversold and sell when they get overbought.

  6. stockpick

    Now what?

    Gold and USD is going the other way……..is this going to change the thesis about breaking the trend lines??

    1. Gary Post author

      Did you listen to the video? I said the dollar would need to bounce at some point and gold would have a short term correction. Perhaps this is the start of that counter trend move.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    1) Negation takes its toll on gold/miners bulls, as ZKOT and I had anticipated: they are going hell down to a lower low.

    Let’s hear that noise coming!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      ….and that gold’s and miners’ dive to new low below 1200 will be banksters’ manipulation.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    This week will be a nightmare for treasuries, gold/miners !
    By looking in the hindsight during next weekend, it will look like sheer mass murder of treasury+gold+miners bulls, worse than a slaughterhouse!

    1. Pedestrian

      I agree Alex. The Yen got clobbered like a Harp Seal pup today and is turning down right on target. I can’t see a gold recovery as long as this falling Yen trade is in play. You must have really cleaned up this time around. You picked almost the perfect top to get short. I am impressed.

  9. Gary Post author

    I don’t see any evidence of manipulation tonight. There have been no huge contract dumps. Gold is just pulling back from slightly overbought levels. A test of support at 1275 could be a half cycle low.

    Copper is not following gold at all and silver just down modestly so far.

    I would have preferred to see stocks drop a bit further and generate some real bearish sentiment but it looks like the rest of the bloodbath phase has been terminated.

  10. Gary Post author

    I’m going to take a guess and say Trump wins the popular vote but the electoral college hands the presidency to Hillary anyway. Then we have another legal mess that drags out for months just like when Bush stole the 2000 election.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, the bloodbath in stocks has yet to be seen after a tremendous dead-cat bounce I have been expecting.
    The lower low, the YCL in stocks, is one month away.

    1. Gary Post author

      Very possible if Trump does win the popular vote but the election is rigged leading to a legal mess like 2000.

      The YCL occurred back in February though. So I would view this as just an ICL.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        yes, indeed. The Friday low was an ICL and we need its failure to confirm the YC decline – hence the lower low.

        The same is with gold/miners: we are in a new IC but it will prove shortened – just 1 or 2 daily cycles long. The YCL to be set either early next week (1-DC IC) or around the next FOMC (2-DC intermediary cycle).

  12. Dday

    Have agree with Gary here. Copper is up, as well as other comms, and looks ready to break higher. Silver is stong in comparison with gold. Wheres the “they are going hell down to a lower low”.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    It is normal for non-gold commodities to rally and copper was a leader of strength just as Transports and Financials were leaders for stock markets during the intermediary Cycle decline till last Thursday (for Russell2000) and Friday (for the rest of broad indexes).

    1. Dday

      Yea you have to stop using will,it indicates certainty…might or could indicate possibility . AND WRITING THINGS IN CAPITALS DOESN’T MAKE ANYTHING MORE CERTAIN. But sure I agree if the dollar continues rallying i don’t see gold continuing upwards.

  14. zkotpen


    I continue to agree with you, that gold & miners need to make a YCL, but I did NOT short the miners. Watching how gold/GDX volatility have been shriveling up on my daily & intraday charts ever since the early October drop to the 200 day SMA ->-> One clear possibility is the YCL decline is a double zig zag, with the X wave being — you guessed it: TRIANGLE, in which volatility shrivels up even more, prior to that final YCL drop (say, on a December rate hike), followed by a strong reversal to begin 2017. September was a month-long triangle. If this is another wave X triangle, it is one degree higher — price could consolidate a few more months, as the main SMA’s I track: 200 — 100 — 50 — 20 — 10 — 5 day SMA’s all converge into one big bundle of low volatility.

    Who’d’ve thought all those triangles I studied back in geometry & trig would reappear in this form, all these years later…

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    ZKOT, I am copy-pasting your messages so that I can use them as study cases for Elliott theory.
    Many added thanks for your VALUABLE INPUTS!

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    Good morning, dear Victor!
    To me the article looks like a stocktaking of America’s growing wealth discrepancies (which makes an old story) with a lid of US candidates’ positioning vs history.
    I personally do not gather anything new from it.

    I am convinced Trump will not win. Even if he wins, I agree with you that USD will skyrocket and that gold will dive but from a different reason: market will discount a hawkish Establishment trying to repel Trump, thus a more accelerated pace of rate hikes than otherwise.
    This will also impact stock exchange plunging or at least being capped from reaching its “normal” potential.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Advice for swing traders on miners/gold:
    – hold onto your shorts until the end of this week when gold/miners will produce their DCL below 200dma
    – stay cash (or, a risky trade, to go long) as miners advance in their new daily cycle to retest the 200dma and their break-down of the current daily cycle [upward] trend line.
    – go short anew as you see resistance in about 2 weeks from now –> THIS WILL BE THE FINAL LEG-DOWN, THE INTERMEDIARY CYCLE WILL FAIL AS LOWER LOWS COME IN A BLOOD BATH ON HIGH VOLUMES.
    – cover your short before FOMC –> YCL will be set
    – AFTER FOMC, GO LONG GOLD/MINERS! The imminent rate hike will [paradoxically] be a catalyst for USX fall and gold’s new rise.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Transports on a major, multi-month inverted H&S break-out !!!
    That is a very bullish long-term signal.
    Transports will continue to go high very quickly in this shortened new intermediary cycle (the violent advance in stocks I was predicting) but mind the peril I was also talking about: stocks will produce a lower low in winter and that will cause transports to revert to the b/o trend line, to the neck of the -H&S.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    Don, you can see now the importance of having played the long USD by going long USDJPY instead of US Index: today alone USX is up +0.9% while USDJPY is +1.4% 😉 🙂
    Checking out.
    Good night!

  20. Surf City

    Gary, so is this the dead cat bounce in the dollar. The USD’s cycle should also be extremely right translated and may not break your trend line.

    Here are my thoughts on the Gold Cycle from last weekend (created the charts on Friday evening and posted them Sunday):


  21. Hillarys_Cattle_Futures

    If Billary wins; I fully expect the Trump camp to contest the results via recount &/or lawsuits … the only way the USA moves forward post-election night in a clean & concise manner is if Trump wins by a strong margin, IMO.

    1. Hillarys_Cattle_Futures

      Like I said the 1 day before the election;

      QUOTE: “the only way the USA moves forward post-election night in a clean & concise
      manner is if Trump wins by a strong margin, IMO.” UNQUOTE.

      Now however … after celebrating a clear cut winner (no contested election) … the markets are going to have to reconcile a massive stock market rally with rising interest rates … IMO; the US economy is not strong enough in the short-term to withstand the headwinds of high rates … a sugar high is no match for the daily grind of higher interest rates, IMO.

    1. Pedestrian

      And you would be the one guy at Goldtent who called this right. I will make a note to keep a close eye on your charts in the future. Especially given virtually every single DUST indicator known to man was shouting bearish this past week. Good work.

      1. Don

        Surf is correct far more so than anyone else here whose comments I track over a four month period. No one else is even close to Surf’s record of getting it right.

  22. Don

    I bought USLV today and added to my current platinum positions. I believe the current weakness will be over soon.

    1. Pedestrian

      Comedy aside, we really don’t know what will happen by Wednesday morning. Election results could see all today’s gaps on metals and equities filled again and this trading reversed. So I don’t want to get too cocky or anything especially at a time like this. Big moves on news or events often reverse themselves.

      1. Pedestrian

        For example, if my math is correct, gold has done almost a perfect .618 retrace of the move up since October 28th which means it will be recharged bullishly to move higher if it stalls out and stops falling here now.

    2. bill

      You were never correct troll not even remotely, hell I can sit here make a prediction, keep my lip closed till it actually happens then when it does call myself a Phenom.. Again your nothing but a troll, lets see your charts you know what those are right Mr long time?…again your a troll and not even an actual trader.

  23. Surf City

    I also have a different Daily Cycle uptrend line in the USD than Gary does. Time is also just as important as breaking trend line and the USD’s cycle should be extremely right translated. Here is my USD post from back on Nov 1st.

    Note that I think it may be possible that the USD had a short and stealth ICL back in Mid-August (at least that is one scenario I am tracking). The key point is that the Blue line in Gary’s video is my potential Intermediate Cycle Uptrend and my Daily or Trading Cycle uptrend is steeper than Gary’s


  24. Alexandru Popovici

    An unattractive day; volatility zero; stillness.
    A good day for planting trees; wet soil, lukewarm air. A fox may show its tail, a rabbit may jump on my road and/or a deer may shy its nose tip out of the forest on the grass of the meadow.

    I’m out today.
    On my return, Hillary will be President-elect.

    1. Dday

      Agree Hillary will probably be President. But Brexit has shown to expect the unexpected. I see Armstrong has flip flopped. Last week gold $1350 by year end, now hes expecting $1240, his machine is broken.

      1. Pedestrian

        Interesting comment Dday. I saw that too and was a little puzzled because it seemed like a reversal from his previous confidence of what gold would be doing this time of year. It also flew in the face of Edelsons assertion gold was about to soar into the fall months. I have a different playbook than both of them in any case. It is simple and practical. Yesterday what was most notable was that when the DOW took off it was in sync with the Nikkei that rose almost 475 points. The Yen immediately cratered and down went gold. So the long standing correlation between Nikkei, Yen and Gold is fully intact. There has not yet been breakdown in that relationship. If anything it has become more responsive than ever as the movements between the three happened virtually simultaneously. So that’s the Algorithms of the big players at work and we need to respect that unless we want to become roadkill by what the large players are doing. Secondly, the market has reiforced the idea that Hillary’s win will be strong for the dollar, result in rising equity markets as confidence returns and thus give a negative print on precious metals. I won’t say if I like that or hate it but those are the facts and opinion has no place here. So be prepared. A Hillary win will set stocks on fire including the Nikkei and as the Yen falls in lockstep gold will be going down hard. Most of us anticipate a Clinon Presidency. I really don’t know what will happen and I won’t make a prediction but should she take first pole then you gold bulls had best be ready for a lousy November and December in precious metals and be ready to bail out or go down crying.

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