81 thoughts on “GOLD AFTER THE FOMC MEETING

  1. Dday

    Look at the TSI on the Euro and the dollar, does that not concern you? Gold fallen below $1300, maybe wait and see best approach.

  2. Dday

    Agreed on the weekly TSI looking good for a rally. Daily TSI’s would indicate; fall in gold, rise in dollar and fall in Euro…

    1. Gary Post author

      Maybe a half cycle low in gold, maybe just a retest of the 1275 resistance/support zone.

      Like I said in the video at some point the dollar will need to bounce so we can construct the cycle trend line. Maybe it’s starting today, maybe it all gets erased by a poor employment report tomorrow.

  3. Dday

    So PM’s looking week in European markets if the $1292 support fails, I would have to disagree with your analogy. If you look at all three daily charts in your video ,every time the TSI’s reached those levels falls followed.

    1. Pedestrian

      Same comment I was going to make Dday. The commentary seems totally at odds with the TSI’s that accompany the gold contract chart. Anyway, gold has double topped on an hourly basis and is heading back down. Silver also peaked and is taking a swan dive at this hour. Platinum off 16 dollars from yesterdays high and the dollar stopped falling at 97.10 and this all points to declines in miners today unless something happens between now and market open to change some directions.

      Did I not warn you people the pit rats who pump gold were going to pull the rug out from under you after you jumped on board again? Man, this metals show just never ends. Linear thinking and gold buying are a terrible combination. You just cannot play this market using standard technicals because they are always just there to set you up and then knock you down again.

  4. Dday

    Looking like complete collapse. Silver down 3% gold 1.5%. I would say dollar is bottoming. Again the mistake of presuming the dollar will show weakness. Its caught you out every time.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yup.

      Like I keep saying, the dollar is going to soar. Euro is going to crash. Most people are reading the charts on those two completely wrong and they are going to lose a boatload of money and sell in a panic later. What can you do? I would explain more but some people on this site seem to get their nappies in a knot when you write too much!

      1. bill

        Anther FAILED call, you are winning for sure, at losing ha ha ha I know I know someday you’ll be right. Follow this shill at your own peril folks…

  5. Dday

    I’m not trying to be harsh its just you seem to be picking technicals to support your case and ignoring technicals which go against it. In order for gold to rally for another 30 days the TSI will have to go off the scale. Sideways movement possible yes, but that’s a different scenario. Also the December rate hike has to be bullish for the dollar as we approach the December meeting Will the dollar will fall to 93?. Europe is in a dire situation, I read a trillion Euros has left the Eu, yes some will go into gold, but an awful lot has gone into the dollar.It could be possible that both the dollar and gold rise together but that hasn’t been the case thus far.. As I said before I like your confidence, and the you tube vids are there for everyone to see, and you put your neck on the line. I just don’t see the case as clear cut as you do.

    1. Pedestrian

      We should see silver back at a 17 handle today. Bill said this was a great buying opportunity. Silly Bill.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold has signaled a right translated daily cycle. It looks to me like it’s just going to take a little work to get through the 50 DMA & resistance at the 1300-1310 level.

        1. Pedestrian

          Bill, I am not a troll. Don’t be so childish. Silver did hit a 17 handle intraday just as I said it would. Please check your charts.

  6. Dday

    So $1300 and $1292 supports gone through like warm butter. Dollar in the green, its looking bearish for pm’s… I’ll Reiterate, I cant see the dollar falling before the next rate decision in December.

  7. zkotpen

    Alex,

    Thanks for shouting out to me on the previous post — I’ve been sick all week — had to call my landlady to bring me meds on Monday. I’m back to about 80% today.

    But yeah, I’ve been on board with your call on gold/miners all along… wondering why Gary still thinks gold is gonna skip its YCL this year.

  8. zkotpen

    “turn the computer off for 3-4 months”… reminds me of the old days:

    GDX March, 2013 55 calls
    SLV January, 2015 leaps, with strike prices anywhere between 30 and 38.

    Another premium burrito says that we get some “cooked books” on the “manipulated” employment report just before the election… Γ  la 2012???

    Bring it on, book cookers!!!!

  9. goldilocks

    Good grief, gold is down merely .31% from yes close and silver down 1.81%. “THE SKY IS FALLING!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!” LOL!!!

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      LOLZ. I love that you are trolling all the bears. Someone has to do it.

      ”Buy Sell Buy Sell!” Gold dropped october 5th, so I bought JNUG and I’ll hold it till gold is at 1550. It’s not that fkn hard. Gary is so right about entering and exiting. Everyone needs to read Jesse Livermore’s ‘reminiscences of a stock operator’, chapter 5 about ”Losing my Position”.

      1. chrisG

        3x jnug is generally not advisable for buying and holding for too long. U are better off buying more of 2x. The math of 3x is just working against investors. 3x is more for swing, say 1 week or 2 max. For trading.

  10. Gary Post author

    Watching copper today. It’s breaking through its intermediate down trend line. If copper is ready to rally gold and silver won’t get left behind.

    That is a pretty large consolidation pattern in copper. It should drive a big move up once it is finished and the rally is ready to start in earnest.

      1. Gary Post author

        I don’t trade it, but I do watch it because it is in the metal sector and sometimes it leads the metals.

    1. Pedestrian

      Not a breakout on copper yet Gary. Check it on a weekly chart and you will see what I mean. The daily is not helpful here.

  11. bill

    Once again all those who added short at the End of FOMC just got their collective asses handed to them, the market loves these jumpers and as Gary noted YOU WILL NEVER EVER MAKE MONEY…

  12. chrisG

    To those loving the stock market, semi conductor seems to be joining in the down party. If support breaks, enjoy.

  13. Don

    Gary, has the dollar not kicked you in the teeth enough times yet? BTW, I don’t know if you noticed but the biotechs are not doing so hot and are threatening to make new lows. If XBI or IBB do make new lows, would that change your ‘parabolic’ rise prediction you made several times not so long ago, or, are we still on course for that?

    1. chrisG

      Exactly, do not just follow blindly. Garys thesis of gold in a bull run and you will not lose money regardless of where u buy only holds if it is true. So he has a 50% chance. I recalled in 2013 period, every drop, every bounce, he claimed gold to be getting ready for a super bull run. He can say he is out at higher levels, but he did published at subsequent decline that gold looks good. If u follow him blindly, u are finished, dry. After that, then the eventual claim will be true. By then, u are already broke.

    2. Gary Post author

      Bio tech will lead the next run higher but right now stocks are moving down into an ICL. So be patient, don’t buy just yet.

      1. ras

        May be. Right now, it is in free fall. It takes time for downside momentum to dissipate. Let us see what happens as price slides toward 20-22 zone and subsequent sideways sloshing. Cheers.

      2. Pedestrian

        Agree Gary. Biotech is setting up for another buy. Almost in the zone now. I wish I had bought when you first mentioned it. There has been three excellent and highly profitable cycles up and down since then and I missed them all. This time I am in though. LABU looking like it will indeed fall to my target of 19 dollars. How weird is that eh? Maybe my technicals work.

        And Bill calls me a troll. What a guy!

  14. chrisG

    There is a potential for Social Media bubble bursting. Look at Tencent. It has rallied 100x plus over the last 10 years. Target seemed to be reached. So, tech could be weak. Maybe, money will be flowing back into some commodities?

  15. Dreamer

    How many thought that gold would keep going lower this morning when it hit 1286.20 and right now back up to the 1300 level?

    Orchestrated cleaning out the sell stops and taking it back up without most of them.

    1. bill

      This is why YOU NEVER EVER hold stops especially in say NUGT or JNUG they Troll for them, I haven’t used a stop in 15 years.

      1. Don

        I also quit using stops years ago due to the blatant running of stops followed by quick reversals. Still, one must get out of a position that is going the wrong way sooner than later.

  16. Don

    Right on Dreamer. That sell off was designed to scoop up the stops. I think Gary is going to be right about where gold is headed. Up.

  17. Gary Post author

    Just like I said: 90% of you won’t make a dime off the bull market.

    This never changes, because human nature never changes.

    1. ras

      Looks like a trading market for a while. Expectation of uninterrupted rise at the starting gate is a bit unrealistic. A bit of fun for nimble folks with NUGT/DUST pair. Cheers.

  18. AmantedeTeclas

    Any thoughts on the new low of the S & P? Nasdaq is also building solid candles down. Look out below? No bounce?

  19. ras

    If dust decides to slide, next stop is around 28. If that happens, where would nugt be? Speak of volatility!

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    I got stopped out of my long SPX position and of the CARB. Unofrtunately CARB will EXPLODE TOMOTRROW post excellent Q-rep and I will not be in it πŸ™ but that’s it: a stop loss is a stopp loss, it’s unwavering.

    Still holding:
    – short treasuries
    – short gold
    – YELP.

    We have swing highs in gold/miners while USX is unable to close below a major target – that’s great for my short gold!

    1. goldilocks

      isn’t your short at 1307? Gee you had almost $20 profit/contract earlier today. You know what they say, “Pigs get slaughtered.”

  21. chrisG

    Gary has many rights. But some wrongs. One of the wrongs could be stock market bigger picture view. That seven year cycle low, that stock will rally a lot. Yes, he is out of SM. But you guys better get his strong 7 year cycle conviction out of your mind too.

    There is a fairly good chance that we are staring at a new bear market. That R2K could not make a new high . Plus other technicals. Be defensive like what Gary say u should do now. Wait til some buy signals present itself. Then assess whether market can resume it’s bull run to new highs or just a bounce.

    1. Pedestrian

      Bear market in stocks? I highly doubt it. That is one call Gary has made that I totally agree with. And all the more so since I discovered that 2016 will make a bullish outside reversal year on the S&P. You cannot see that outside pattern with most standard technical software packages incidentally since most don’t offer “yearly” charts.

      But you can examine the facts on a monthly chart to see it for yourself. And that (for me) was a fantastic discovery technically speaking.

      Anyway, one of the most rare and consistent buy signals on the S&P is being triggered this year and all of the past similar instances led to good or excellent rally’s. I suspect we are getting the slingshot pullback on markets as we speak but once the elections are over and the market declines finished the next bull may just begin.

      That’s what I think anyway. Nobody knows for certain but the odds seem to favour that scenario.

  22. tulip

    maybe Gary can elaborate….re SM..

    Gary has many rights. But some wrongs. One of the wrongs could be stock market bigger picture view. That seven year cycle low, that stock will rally a lot. Yes, he is out of SM. But you guys better get his strong 7 year cycle conviction out of your mind too.

    1. Gary Post author

      Stocks are just moving down into a much needed yearly cycle low. It’s just a profit taking event. Remember I said stocks and oil were too stretched above the mean and would need to correct before I would be interested in buying again.

      Again these things never change. At every ICL 90% of traders get bearish and start looking for a new bear market. You would think at some point they would figure out that to make real money you have to buy when everyone else is selling, and sell when everyone else is buying… but they never do.

      1. dan123

        Turns out staying bearish on the market and 90%+ in cash, after the false SPX breakout in the summer, was the prudent thing to do after all. Keep touting the bubble phase garbage. Biotech getting wrecked once again, lol.

        You have no credibility.

        1. Gary Post author

          Dan,

          We exited at the very top. Kept all our profits, and have been waiting for price to move back down towards the long term mean before buying stocks again.

          Have you not been watching the videos? Or maybe you are just a troll and don’t care about the truth.

          1. Pedestrian

            Don’t let them rattle you Gary. I have watched your biotech calls and they were timely and well done. In hindsight I should have followed along with what you guys were doing here. Live and learn.

  23. dan123

    Gary talking about 90% of people losing money after endlessly calling bottoms for years in commodities – priceless.

    Those who stay prudent to survive the coming deflationary bust (read: not trying to get rich off the crash) will be far better off than chasing pie in the sky garbage junior miners or LABU disasters.

  24. chrisG

    I have been bullish on SM during previous corrections. But this one could be different. Remember, SM tends to drop after new President , then to during again when he is due for reelection

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    So many gold bulls! Lovely πŸ™‚
    How could my short gold become swell profitable w/o them ?! It would be impossible a gold bear like me now needs saturation with gold bulls (as this forum now reveals) just as any of us needs air πŸ™‚

    PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT MY WARNING ON MINERS ON JANYARY 8 !
    History is repeating.

    1. chrisG

      Alex, u sold your gold at $30 lower, saying gold is dangerous. I think it’s 1270 ish. Now gold is only few dollars from its recent high, and u are up less than $10, blowing so much trumpet??

    2. Gary Post author

      Actually gold sentiment is dead neutral at 57% bulls. During bull markets sentiment can go as high as 85-90% bulls before an intermediate cycle tops.

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    Stock market ready to bounce! It’s nervous to sky rocket.
    But it will be a deceitful rise – the final leg-down will come after that.

  27. Alexandru Popovici

    Chris, when you will look in the hindsight just 1 week from now, YOU WILL HAVE FIGUREED OUT THAT IT HAS NOT BEEN WORTH RIDING THE RISK OF HOLDING THE GOLD FROM 1271 (where I sold) TO THE TOP OF 1308.
    So, let’s talk about who is right or wrong 1w from so that we can have the hindsight πŸ˜‰

    1. Gary Post author

      The gold cycle is now clearly right translated.

      The strategy for the next several months is to buy dips.

    2. chrisG

      Dude, we have been here before. You know my skills. And you have been dead wrong versus me at critical juncture. So, please.

  28. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, πŸ™‚ so was GDX’ cycle on JAN8 when I made the warning of imminent fall –> right-translated on day 13.

    The 3-YCL followed within 7 sessions in a bloodbath πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  29. Dreamer

    Here we go with 8 minutes remaining for the phony October Jobs report.

    Will they slam down gold/silver again?

  30. victor

    silver looking back on copper futures that is rising, so the silver. No, no shorting this things, especially before this crazy elections…

  31. Dreamer

    161,000 jobs…lol…..Heard on cnbc that the Birth/Death Model accounted for 198,000 jobs.
    Based on that, jobs were actually lost……..what a sick joke if that is true which it probably is.

    Oil is down and stayed down so far. Maybe the market is not getting fooled.
    Will see how this day trades from here.

  32. Carmen

    A lesson I’ve learned, and re-learned several times – Never declare victory until you take your profits!

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