90 thoughts on “Gold

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, we finally agree.
    GBP is the currency leader, it casts best clues now – its DCL below 1.2378 tomorrow or on Monday would set the ICH in USX and the YCL in gold paving the way for the IC decline of USD through January.

  2. tater123

    Well that’s good. My question is when do you anticipate your subs who followed the SMT Portfolio to be back to even?

    I’m glad I didn’t follow but alot of traders did and after this next cycle, they will still be drowning 👎👎👎👎👎

    1. Gary Post author

      I gave everyone a stop at 1275. If they used it they are waiting on the sidelines for the YCL to bottom and then ride the next leg up.

      1. Steffmeister

        I never said there was a buying opprtunity in gold three months ago, Rothschild did but he is an elit moron.

  3. Steffmeister

    Look at first majestic a big yawn to the correction in silver today.

    Mr Trumps only chance to master the recession/deflation ghost is to inflate, inflate and inflate, Stockmarket and Gold will rise and the dollar will fall.

  4. happycamper515

    I think the Trump victory is having a black swan effect on the markets and crazy things are happening that once unwound, will have a vicious snap back in all markets. Pick your poison.

  5. yasen

    If you would like to dispel the question of whether we are in a bull or bear market, then I would recommend stop saying “IF we are in a bull market” every other post. You keep leaving yourself an out.

  6. Pedestrian

    Gary, you cannot dispel a fact and it is a FACT that gold is still officially in a bear market until it breaks out above of its long term trend line. Even you acknowledged that line in a past video so I am not saying anything you are unaware of. We will be in a bull anywhere over 1400 dollars but that time has not arrived yet so you are still just assuming the bull call is the correct one.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think a trend line defines a bull or bear market.

      When I see yearly cycle highs exceeded and higher yearly cycle lows that indicates to me that the larger 8 year cycle is advancing and that should mean at least a cyclical bull market has begun.

  7. duckwhorocks1

    But the bigger question remains…Is Gary going to pay up on his Burrito bet?
    or was that a metaphysical thing…like this Gold Bull market he sees?

  8. briansmith672

    Good point Yasen. Gary should stop using the word “IF” as he has been using that word for months now when it comes to gold and has been proven wrong all the way to the low 1200s. I have lost faith in Gary’s gold cycles given what has happened these last few months.

  9. zbigkid

    Wow. that was a much more tempered ‘buy’ gold still video from Gary, than the last one. Even if it breaks 1200 folks, he is saying ‘probably’ better to buy than sell. Thus, Stay away from JNUG, NUGT, and so on.

  10. briansmith672

    I subscribe to Gary’s subscription site but have only started posting here. It has been painful to be in JNUG that he called some months back, watching as gold just goes lower and lower. So I have really lost faith that these cycles are predictive in nature. If they had been we would have seen gold over 1500 by now.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    David, thank you, man!
    Once USX mania takes a rest for 7 weeks, THE SCORCH WILL COME.
    Tomorrow or even better on Monday ( so we get in week 14 of USX IC) USX should top and…you know my plan, it remains the same through JAN.

    Now personally I am only in FAZ and postponed buying both gold and ERY until I see that swing low in GBPUSD – now the leader FX in USX’ basket – the best currency after USX.

    1. yasen

      “you know my plan, it remains the same through JAN.” New here, but can you expand on what your game plan is for those who missed.

  12. ras

    bpgdm, a commonly followed indicator, is around 7 today. But the weekly bars are still down. It can still go down to zero. Then it could go sideways backing and filling. We need to see some basing action in a plurality of individual stocks. Not just one stock, Ag. I do not see anything that indicates a turn around is imminent, not yet. We could be close, may be weeks. No rush here. Ready with a shopping list.

  13. briansmith672

    happycamper to be honest I only read posts from Gary in the subscription site as purposefully avoided reading the tons of comments from others as there are way too many points of view so I honestly do not know if he posts there.

    1. Pedestrian

      Opinions are like orphaned socks.
      Everyone has a drawer full of them and none of them ever mates up with the others.

  14. briansmith672

    Alexandur, can you expand on this? How is it so “obvious” they are being sold into strength when the markets just keep going higher since Trump won?


    1. Pedestrian

      Well I finally sold the bears today. Ready to get long again tomorrow or Monday. Not a lot of worries to be honest. It can still get a little uglier by my readings but we are pretty damn close to a tradable bottom. My worst case scenario still sees gold at just a few bucks under 1200 and who knows, maybe that will happen after hours. Even if things do get worse, there is not a lot of room for declines based on sentiment, oversold conditions, depth of the decline thus far and other technical considerations so risk is a whole lot lower now than last week.

      1. Pedestrian

        Larry Edelson caved on his gold call? Well not exactly but he is hedging his bets now that the predicted gold bull bounce did not materialize on his AI schedule and saying maybe 1200 will be the low and if not that then down we go to 1000.

        Oh well. I have not bought anything yet. Play it by ear I guess.

        1. duckwhorocks1

          Good job!
          I am getting interested on the long side as well.
          The downside risk has definitely diminished and the fact that I am not being mocked speaks volumes about how much Gary’s subscribers are anti-emetics.

          1. Pedestrian

            Right on Duck.

            There is enormous support in the 1200 region going all the way back to 2010. And there are innumerable pivots that gold should or could bounce from. Should gold fail here and blast through those supports it would be a devastating blow to the gold community.

            That being said, I am optimistic we do get a set up for a bounce although I doubt it happens today. More likely we will have a weekend interlude before the action gets going. It looks like a fair bet on probabilities gold will make a bear market recovery however I don’t see a bounce carrying further than 1300 before the next leg down.

            Guess I will just play it by ear. Like you I am looking for a bottom just a few dollars under 1200 since there are some enticing supports there but we never know exactly how it will play out.

            Sentiment is in the gutter already. Not sure what the percentage of bears are but it must be getting pretty high this morning given that drop to 1201 and change.

  15. ras

    It is pointless to blame analysts. Everyone should do his own due diligence. Every analyst posts on his website the following caveat: The writer is not responsible for any losses arising out of trading based on the content of this news letter. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, etc. It is important not to follow any analyst blindly. Anyone who does the contrary could be at risk, as is evident from the writings of some posters about huge draw downs in nugt/jnug.

    There is no regulating authority for SM letter writers. Anyone with a computer and access to internet and a subscription to a chart service, can dish out his advice to subscribers who are willing to pay while agreeing to the caveat noted above. The success rate of SM letter writers could be about 50/50.

      1. ras

        I am yet to come across anybody in this business who is sure about anything. I have seen many analysts, starting from Granville, who used to boast about his capacity to move markets. In the introductory chapter of his classical book, Alexander Elder, of elder impulse fame, devotes significant space to Joseph Granville when he was at the height of his fame. Very important to handle success without heating up. Otherwise, pride goeth before a fall. Just an opinion.

        1. Pedestrian

          Good opinion. I agree with you. I have suffered it myself in the past but try to be a little more meek now. Nobody gets it right all the time. Even 50% seems to be a struggle if you cover too many markets.

    1. tater123

      That’s easy for me to say or you to say but not for novice traders who listened to Gary. Novice traders have no idea what this crooked market can do and when a novice sees positive returns in Garys portfolio and Gary speaks with such conviction ie last year when he was wrong about the CRB bottom being in or this year about the 3 YCL, you can’t blame a newbie for getting suckered in on this last disastrous 3x leveraged trade.

      1. Gary Post author

        Jeez I clearly stated multiple times no more than 20-50% of one’s portfolio in metals trades.

        Also over and over I stated that the safest market was the stock market. It’s been protected by the PPT for years now.

        Other than using a megaphone I don’t know how much clearer I can be. I also suggested a stop at 1275 so no one should be riding out this final YCL unless they just didn’t want to use the stop.

  16. ted

    So it appears we have entered the breakout bubblicious move I have been waiting for.

    Alexandru, although intelligent, will be wrong this time.

    It is written!

  17. daverobson

    Alex, so when USX hits ICL in 7 weeks that time frame is first week of January…you will get of gold position. GBP/USD not that far away from1.2378 ..with daily cycle running out of time …you think it would come by Monday? One last question you said gold tested 1210.50 today below your 1211 ycl earlier – is it a given that gold will now go sub $1200? How confident are you they will run stops below 1200 May ICL and why?

    Keep it coming Alex …….

  18. happycamper515


    This statement was from your November 10th report.

    “Gold is resisting the bounce in the dollar, as it has done in the past. Once the dollar is ready to roll over into an intermediate cycle low gold will be ready to fly.”

    Assuming we get a change in direction from the dollar shortly, is you expectation for gold still “to fly” or is it a more muted expectation now given what we’ve seen the past week?

      1. vanbc

        Hi Gary,
        GLD gold’s tonnage is continuing huge decline, it is not a bull market action. Do you consider this factor on gold price action?

  19. AussieMike

    Well I hope you’re right Gary. Yes, it still is a 50% Fib retracement for many of our miners down under and that may by considered ‘normal’ for EWT corrective B waves. Yes, the big players may try a false break below $1200 for Gold. Yes, I was also watching the $BPGDM – can’t go much further now. But why isn’t anyone concerned about the massive Head and Shoulders that’s forming on the Weekly Gold chart. I note that Pedestrian alluded to this also, but on HUI. I expect we will see a rally to 1260 – 1300, but if it corrects back down it will finish the H&S and we only have the neckline left. If we get a Confirmed break below $1200 Gold – I think you can pick a Harry Dent figure for Gold.

    1. Pedestrian

      I am looking for a rally as high as 1300 Mike. If we get there and turn back down the Head and Shoulders pattern on gold, miners, HUI, GDX etc will still be intact. That pattern is everywhere and the bugs are now trying to suggest it is a “continuation pattern H&S”. I could laugh my damned head off but what can you do? The bugs never quit with the weird rationalizations. They will say ANYTHING to keep all the fools invested. I would advise you to be very wary because there are other confirming patterns that gold could go down very hard by January.

  20. chrisG

    I have previously highlighted the HS of Hui, and a fall to 140 is likely. Bottom line, don’t look at this sector until some buy signals generated.

  21. ras

    Pm stocks could be getting close to bouncing time. Will be there when it happens. Expecting a trading market for a while. The real kahuna, may be a bit later. Just an opinion.

  22. duckwhorocks1

    We should get a tradeable bottom…I am looking at 111 USD-JPY. Really longer term anyone who buys Gold as an inflation hedge over Platinum at these prices is a true idiot.

    In spite of the fact that Gary has made so little money over the years that he refuses to pay up on openly acknowledged Burrito bet, I am hopeful that the Qdoba gift card will be emailed.

      1. daverobson

        Gary is it possible for US dollar to touch 115 …really late in the cycle… but it keeps making higher highs…..

        1. duckwhorocks1

          The USD index is very close to topping.
          But USD JPY will not pullback and then go higher.
          Unless Gold finally breaks it’s correlation with USD JPY…..you gonna see lower gold prices.

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    DAVE ROBSON, good morning! Seeing my daughter to kinder garden is getting close, so here I am back with a quick view at markets.

    I know two things. Mania, once started, is like a flu or puss, it must run its course to let it evaporate by itself and the second that particularly depressive manias are much more severe than passages of happiness.
    This is why I preferred to take the small loss to 1216 from 1226 of gold – we do not know 100% how deep it can go once THE FINAL THRUST of mania kicks in.
    Additionally, there are also the wave of stop losses that you mentioned would be touched.

    But, now looking at GBPUSD lower at 1.2400 is comforting. Until it gets below the prior low of 1.2378 today or on Monday (I don’t know because the depressive mania is strong now) it is pretty clear to me that it is safe to bet that gold will move below 1200 soon! And once it gets there, stop losses would be hit and the price would glide towards my original estimate of 1182.
    So, let’s see.

    PS: there is also a third thing I know, when depression goes so severe, IT IS GREAT: BIG SWINGS TO OPTIMISM OOCUR. This time will make no difference.
    Thus now I am on the same page with Gary.

  24. Alexandru Popovici

    BRIAN, markets are not going higher because of Trump and the fall to ensue shortly in stocks wiont be because of Trump either.
    ALL TRENDS SO FAR (except for USX’ breakout above 100.72 which I definitely did not expect) HAVE BEEN AS I HAVE ATICIPATED:
    – stocks down to ICL
    – stocks up in a VIOLENT rebound
    – gold miners and treasuries to go to hell.

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    My Trading Framework is like this
    – USX to top, put its ICH today or on Monday — I watch for GBPUSD undercutting 1.2378
    – USX, stock market and all commodities other than gold/silver to fall dramatically (but not a bear market just strong correction) through early JAN
    – gold to shine through JAN
    – treasuries too will go up in their new yearly cycle.

    One tweak: commodities will have a bottom in 2 weeks or so, post a dead cat bounce through Christmas alongside stocks and than move down IN THE FINAL MANIAC THRUST through January (like now happens with gold).

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      People and all media will blame poor Trump for the slaughter of stocks and commodities to come but it will be stupid.
      I had anticipated these trends in stocks before his win (stocks down to ICL, then up violently, then down through December – in the meantime though I have only changed my deadline for the rout end from DEC to early JAN).

      Paradoxically, media will say next year that the rise of stocks off the JAN lows to come is thanks to …Trump’s plan 🙂 it is to fathom what they will say in advance.

  26. Dday

    All good had a listen to the video. I just don’t understand your logic for thinking the dollar was going to top and gold rise before the December rate decision?

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s what happened before the last rate hike. Sentiment just got too bullish and the top came prior to the rate hike. The hike inspired a weak dead cat bounce and then the dolalr rolled over into a multi-month correction.

      I don’t know why one would expect anything different this time.

  27. chrisG

    I ain’t listening to Gary’s video. U guys know why? Cos i suspect another of his 2013 pattern is repeating. Repeatedly calling for potential bottom, but the only bottom all could see is ass.

    I was cautiously bullish before yesterday, but once certain level taken out, bye Bye.

    Take note of something guys. If gold is still in a bull market, after it has such a huge impulse move, u should not see many deep oversold conditions within a short time frame.

    Market dynamics have changed. If you don’t adapt, u better have a strategy to keep selling subscriptions like many newsletter strategist. Those are riskless income. Lol

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Chris, I agree w/ you on the “certain levels” and on timeframe (unless gold bottoms by the end of December, its YC gets left-translated and it becomes as good as toast).
      But I now think they, both “certain levels” and timeframe, are far away.

      Look at GBP vs gold: GBP is the leader in USX basket (clearly Lady Market whispers that Brexit wont happen), it resisted USD and now its getting its spine broken to an undercut blw 1.2378 soon while gold…amazingly still holds above 1200 !
      Should the leader f USX basket get the undercut while gold resists, then we clearly have a very powerful gold.
      Even if it cascades down to 1182 that would not hurt it but if it manages to stay above 1200 then….we could not get a more bullish signal.

  28. Alexandru Popovici

    Swing High in crude oil ! DCH yesterday on day 3.

    – GBPUSD nearing 1.2378, hence USD close to topping,
    – crude oil and CRB index reverting,
    – bulky selling on strength in stocks,

  29. Bull


    I’m new to forum, but would like to ask if after this gold ycl, if you think gold will fall back to $1050 in 2017? Some analyst are calling for a complete retrace. Thanks in advance.

  30. Chips

    Greetings Gary, great video–thank you! Your detractors (obviously amateurs) apparently never heard of using a trading plan or position sizing (haha). Otherwise, no meed for anyone to gush negativity. As for me, a long-time reader of SMT, just popped in to say hey. Keep up this awesome effort, sir! I look forward to every post.

  31. Alexandru Popovici

    Now, I do not think such a thing (gold below 1050) would happen because of the reason I mentioned yesterday: Trump’s policies will bring up US public debt to huge level, maybe up +50% in his 8 years, because I am now convinced he will the 2nd term, his measures will put US economy on fire and people will appreciate it even if that will be done at the cost of future generation – huge debt.

    Running such huge deficits will bring in interests rates, inflationary pressures slightly above expectation so that the magic will happen: gold will move up despite a ferocious USD bull, except that the uptrend in gold will be highly volatile.

  32. Dday

    Technically the 61.8 fib retracement for the entire gold rally form $300-$1900 works out at a price of $800. So yes even if gold retraces to that level you could still say gold is in a bull market. If you were to hold the miners you would probably loose 80-100% depending. But Yes you could still state gold is in a bull market.

  33. Bv

    Gary, why do you continue to ignore, and more specifically, continue to ignore your calls on the dollar? As I pointed out previously, you said the dollar had no chance of going above the summer highs back in July and also almost no chance of going above the August highs and yet here we are now with the dollar above 101. You said it would take the dollar to go above 100 before you would consider becoming bullish? So where do you stand now? You keep calling for the dollar to roll over and the euro to bottom but it’s not happening. The way I see it, is the dollar is strong, because there is no credible alternative to it. However maybe we are near the bottom in gold/miners now, because I myself am beginning to get a bit spooked and I haven’t felt like this for a while. Maybe this will start to show up in the COT like Duck has been talking about?

  34. Pedestrian

    My only real problem with gold this morning is that the Yen is just not cooperating by confirming that a gold bounce is coming. It just keeps falling just as the dollar keeps rising. Yen , Euro and Swissy are now in their tenth day of declines!!! USD is also on its tenth day of rising.


    We all expect reversals here of course. But that is not guaranteed. When we all think alike then odds are something else will happen. The currency carnage must abate before any precious metals become a buy although I will concede its hard to imagine another 10 days like this.

    But I suppose it could happen.

      1. Pedestrian

        Point taken. And it could easily do that again. So lets just watch the miners to see what they do today as they usually have sensitivity in anticipating reversals and start moving even before gold has bottomed. I would not be surprised to see GDX rise at some point today for example.

        If the big players are jumping in of course. That is more important to me than what the Juniors do. I only say that because the large players and professionals are generally more adept at timing entries and GDX is where the action should show up.

        If GDX is a big flop today it is probably a good idea to hold fire.

  35. chrisG

    Guys, you guys must realize $hui, tends to follow TA quite closely. Yes, a trendline support can be drawn that says support low is this week. But do not rule out the simple HS formation that says Hui could go to 140 or 120. HS should be more respected. ie, higher chance of materializing. Ie, it wouldnt be good news for gold.

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