42 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP

  1. Kanselier

    You are missing the big picture i fear…
    The euro is bound for a collapse… the whole area is a political mess…
    So with the euro crashing and the bondbubble popping open. You get two reactions.
    More easing in europe: europe assets fall
    Bondbubble: fall
    In those 2 situations the fleeing money seeks yield.
    First open: emerging markets » fail : the eurocrash and the bondpressure are making people go long dollar. Emerging markets have a big dollar exposure linked with commodities noting in usd.
    Option 2: europe: well eurocrisis says it all
    Option 3: usa: if one and two fail go for 3… adding to that trumpeconomics… keeping the dollars at bay and infrastructure spending… yes you want to be long us market..
    Option 4: commodities: well with the dollarmove you are getting a lot of pressure on commodities… is the system at risk? Yes.. but its to soon ..

    2017 broad market wise i am opting for long us market.
    Aftee which i’ll go long commodities.
    Gold will go to 1000-800 before the bullmarket starts.

    1. jskauai

      Kanselier, could you explain to me why Gold is falling in Euro terms while Euro is crashing against the $US. Looks to me that this is Central Bank policy games.

    2. pacoquin

      Kanselier u are damm right. Its my scenario. Gary is missing whole picture. Unless “they” decide to change it, all depends on Dollar, which he was expecting to collapse and I kept saying its facing parity with Euro.. and that has cosecuences on commodities.. so long in US stocks

      1. Kanselier

        Usd is the world largest currency…. 60% global exposure, also all commodities trade in usd.
        After anti eu austria election and anti eu italy referendum you’ll see some diversion %wise. But as long as the european union can strugle on it wont reach venezuela hights. Although we are on route to it…
        Its to soon.

  2. pacoquin

    Jesus … just watched this video.. he is totally mistaken. I think Euro will rebound… as well as Dollar will correct… probably from 102-104 down to 96-97.. and Euro back to 108-109… and he will plip.. but I bet on Dollar 118.. and Euro down to 87-85 … he is completely lost in the middle of nowhere… sorry

  3. Gary Post author

    Everyone knows the dollar is going higher and the euro is facing collapse. That alone makes me want to take the other side of the trade.

    Way too many bulls on the dollar and way too many bears on the euro.

    1. Pedestrian

      In the second half of 2014 everyone knew that oil was going to keep going lower and everyone who took the opposite side of the trade in spite of that got their accounts destroyed. You might not recall it but I sure do. The declines were relentless for 8 months with no measurable bounce during the entire crash. And it was not a surprise either. Anyone who had been watching the long term charts knew it was coming and were positioned. What is so different this time? Just look at a monthly Gary.

      Like I have suggested three times already.

      You are going to get run over by being contrarian this time.

      1. Pedestrian

        My apologies Gary. I am not trying to be irritating. But gold peaked in July/August just as the dollar started to really take off and both have been going in opposite directions ever since. So now Gold is really oversold and dollars are quite overbought but neither of those conditions guarantee they cannot get even more oversold or overbought. I agree we have reversals coming for both but I do not believe that the directional trends are about to change as a result. So bigger picture it is long dollars and short gold no matter how odious that may sound on this site. The reason is that the dollars trend based on a monthly is to take out 1.20 and potentially reach into 1.30 or above. Unless there is a whole damned lot of buying from the Chinese, Europeans and Indians in the next while then golds direction remains down until we hit the December bottom.

          1. Pedestrian

            Of course you will. Don’t get me wrong Gary. I have been posting for days I am just holding for the best timing entry into what I think will be a decent gold bounce up to at least 1300. Already sold the shorts in preparation. What I don;t believe however is that it will result in a continuation of the bullish pattern that began early in the year. But if it does I will be onboard same as you so there is no risk of me missing out. We cannot therefore be on opposite sides of the trade since we are both going to get long gold but for different beliefs about its ultimate end game.

  4. goldilocks

    “Descending broadening wedges….found most often with upwards breakouts in bull markets. Downward breakouts are quite rare. For upward breakouts, the best performing patterns are those with a three to six month rise leading to the pattern. The breakout direction is upward 79% of the time.” There is an interesting chart of GLD (from the year 2009) that looks similar to where we are today. http://www.thepatternsite.com/Blog-Feb09.html#P5 You will have to scroll down the page to find it.

    1. Pedestrian

      Very interesting Goldi. I had not even noticed that until you mentioned it. And it does look bullish. It looks like it has not quite completed its decline yet either. Another 25 or 30 dollars to go perhaps. Wow, that would really spook the bugs if it happened like that.

  5. Steffmeister

    I agree with Gary! I am bullish Gold 🙂

    My point exactly, clever dude at optionseller.com … inflation coming and higher rates … both bullish for Gold&Silver. The printing press is running at full speed already in Europe. Any turmoil in Europe would send Gold higher imo. The last thing the FED and Mr Trump wants is a stronger dollar, they are going to fight it hard imo.

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000569425

    Is this what is about to happen?
    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/587200#comment-587200

    Many scared pm-analysts out there at the moment.

    Good Nite from Europe

  6. Pedestrian

    You know what does look interesting right now? Might be off the beaten path around here but natural gas is taking off again. Gapped up this evening already at the futures open.

  7. duckwhorocks1

    I don’t agree with Gary that often but I think the Euro is close to a bottom. A gigantic Kim Kardashian kind of bottom.
    The reason is the yield spread between Us and Europe…. When that peaks….the Euro will bottom.

    There is a very severe inflationary pipeline unleashed by keeping rates too low. That is impacting us but it is impacting eurozone and Britain more severely due to extremely weak currencies.
    Both ECB and Britain will back off extreme accommodation and that should top USD strength against them.

  8. TraderPete

    I have to agree with Gary. The TSA indicator has now turned positive for gold and silver and there is a swing failure in both metals. Also, a Pm occurred on Friday, which concludes T4 and now T5 should begin. The bottom line: the correction has probably ended and we should now see much higher prices from here as Gary indicated in the video.

  9. Dday

    It’s worth noting that the dollar rallied for eight months straight, form summer 2014. I keep reading that two months is such a long rally.

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, I agree w/ you that there is too much bearishness in EUR but, as I said before, when such level of depression hits, the trend is bound to continue after some bounces because, paradoxically, as the market hits lower, people automatically tend to become bullish, a strange bullishness materializes, not from higher prices but from too distressed prices, rendering them to buy dips.
    When such behavior occurs (bullishness out of distress within the framework of an extensive depression of Lady Market), then lower lows lie ahead.

    PRACTICAL POINT: EURUSD is now … 1.0638 –> this is a bearish rise of EUR, a minor trend which sucks in early bulls buying dips –> this tells smart swingers that there is still scope for lower lows, hence expect EURUSD to move below 1.0567 today/tomorrow.

    1. daverobson

      Alex so you still see more lows on gold ahead next few days? We are getting very late in cycle. As Gary pointed out we have swing high in dollar is this just a trap as well?

  11. briansmith672

    Do the opposite of Alexandru and you will do well. He talks using big words but says nothing and has no idea what he is doing.

  12. Gary Post author

    Gold, silver and the euro are all potentially forming swing lows today. Of course it won’t be official until the close.

    The dollar is close to forming a swing high.

    I think there is a good chance gold formed its yearly cycle low on Friday.

    1. Dday

      Agreed, although could be just another Asian/EU bounce, to be crushed once US markets open. But liking your much more realistic,”potentially/Chance” approach.

  13. duckwhorocks1

    The COT for most currencies against the dollar is strongly bullish (i.e Bearish USD).
    Add that to the long positions on the USD index and it is even more strongly bullish for all other currencies.
    The one exception would be the Yen where it is now more or less neutral.

  14. briansmith672

    Alexandur I thought early this week the market was going to get scorched? To the upside looks like opposite of what you predicted!

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Terry, Dave,
    I got stopped out of the gold short.

    I expect EURUSD to move lower but I let the market lead my trades so that, now that we have the swing low in GBPUSD, I have also set a buy-stop at 1220.
    Thus:
    – should the market move lower as I expect, my buy-stop will not be touched
    – if EURUSD proves me wrong short-term and it moves higher today, then gold will follow suite, get to 1220 and I will be long 😉

  16. ras

    Just a bounce, nothing to get excited about. If you entered trading long positions on Friday, enjoy the ride while it lasts and close positions when your target is reached. Not interested in arguing pro or con. Too much heat, no light. Whatever price does is ok. Nobody can outguess the market anyway. Cheers.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Brian, do whatever you feel right for you.
    I am very pessimistic about stocks & risk-on commodities through JAN, as I’ve said.
    If you find this assertion of mine relevant for your trading as you say, as a contrarian indicator, then please move on and buy financial, semi, transport and energy stocks for 100% of your equity.

    If you really find me a truly extraordinary contrarian fit, then please do it 100%, on leverage.

  18. terrywg

    Brian, all you do is b*tch like a little girl. To be fair to Alex, he has posted concrete entry/exit targets including position size and leverage management. He was also one of the prescient ones to call the decline in gold post fomc minutes.

    All you’ve done so far is to criticise others. Why don’t you share some of YOUR entry/exit targets so we have a clear idea of how solid your investment thesis is.

  19. briansmith672

    terrywg just do opposite of Alexandru is preaching. Have been saying it for a while. What more concrete advice do you need? And I am not bitching just warning others.

  20. jonsyl

    brian are you following your own advice going contrary to Alex and others or simply safely sitting on the sidelines and sniping at others to satisfy your ego on the site. Let us know where your bets currently sit.

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