30 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY – Gold and Miners

  1. Goild

    The fact that the miners have gone sideways may tell that book value has been reached.
    It is very weird that gold is lagging the miners. Hopefully will have a strong rally up.

  2. Goild

    Gary, I wonder if I should post again my comments on the interest rate hike and on pain on the miners. Some may have missed them and I am curios about what people think?

  3. ras

    I am not so sure about a big rally, may be a vigorous bounce. SIL looks good to me. Greater than that is always welcome. As price and time evolve, we will know better. PMs need to recapture 50 day ma and stay there, if your outcome is to play out. I am unable to see as yet the right alignment of ma’s on key pm charts. There is likely a bit more DS in the SM, but may not be very deep. Time will tell. Cheers.

  4. Goild

    Robert had a comment that made sense to me. That is it is unlikely that an undercut will take place right away. Passing Monday is the next hurdle. This coming week can be quite interesting/volatile as the daily and weekly averages are being reached by the miners and in preparation to the FOMC meeting. I was also pondering that a sideways move may linger for a long time. As per a strong rally Gary’s pointing the divergence of gold and the miners is also sign that something has to yield, either by gold rallying, or a sudden fall of the miners. Gary’s pointing about the FOMC letting the market further down prior to the its meeting is an issue to ponder as the miners can easily be dragged down by the market. I commented that immediate past performance is often a good indicator. If you look at the weekly candle pattern, we have similar behavior and it is likely too that the candle for this coming week will follow the pattern, that is a slight upward movement . The following week with the weekly averages being touched and the FOMC meeting will be decisive for sure.

    1. Gary Post author

      IMO a weekly swing is the “right setup”.

      We have one in silver and are close in miners.

  5. Goild

    Ras, I see you are prudent to wait for the right setup. It is good reading your comments. If you can clarify what is DS and SM I would be helpful. Thanks.

  6. Goild

    I agree that there are good reasons to support an upward movement. Another one is looking at the 10/2015-6/2016 support for gold. So I am long but very careful as I am riding NUGT.

  7. bginvestor

    The right time for me to get “positioned” was support at the trend line.. that was earlier this week (GDX) ..

  8. Goild

    Note that for about the last two weeks the miners inversely correlate with the USD,
    Gold instead has followed TIP (tips bond) since early November.
    Hence the rate hike might a stronger impact on gold than perhaps thought of.
    That brings the question about whether we would have a 0.25% or a 1% increase.

  9. Goild

    On December 16th 2015 the rate was increased to 0.25% and the gold market gapped up with a long legged doji pattern. Instead TIP on the 16th was down following the previous down trend. However, on December 17th TIP started an uptrend. Thus there is reason to expect gold to go up on December 15th 2016. And if the rate increase is 1% to rally hard.

  10. Emptyness

    Good Morning America, here some news from germany:
    Deutsche Bank has to pay 60 million USD because of GOLD PRICE MANIPULATION.

    There are several guys on this website, who negate any manipulation. That’s stupid. Look at the S&P 500 topping formation. Every time the market starts a correction, it is catched. And look at Gold. Every time Gold tried to break the long term downtrend, it was held back. Manipulation is everywhere. Without manipulation the sick finance system would break down fast.

    60 million USD – isn’t it a joke !

  11. Pedestrian

    What happened to the video thread from yesterday? It does not load anymore. Anyone know? This is the second time in the last two weeks an entire thread disappeared. Maybe its my browser.

  12. goldilocks

    Somone once told me getting all the EU countries/people to agree on things (mainly due to the differences in their cultures) was like getting all the US Indian tribes to agree on things. I can relate.

  13. bginvestor

    Italian referendum vote today.. Zerohedge expects a “NO”.. Equity markets flash crashed in the last Brexit. Common sense says a similar scenario..

    Any feedback on the impact in US metals? hmmm.

    1. Goild

      Well, with Trump winning the election the equities went up and gold down. If the equities go down I would expect to see gold up. Further, uncertainty is good for gold. So tomorrow gold, and hopefully the miners, might gap up a good percentage. Though with EU in trouble USD may be stronger and then the miners will feel more pain, so I should be ‘presto’ to dump NUGT.

  14. Goild

    The Brexit vote was on June 23th 2016. The equities market went down to later recove and gold/miners gapped the next day UP, UP, UP!

  15. Goild

    Tomorrow we shall learn more about the relationship between, TIP, USD, and the miners.
    While the miners went up on June 24th, both TIP and USD also went up. USD went up a lot more ~3%.
    The USD might start a new leg up tomorrow hurting the miners.

  16. Goild

    bginvestor,

    Good questions!
    At this point I think it does not matter which way it is.
    What matters is what is the course of action tomorrow at 7:00 PM EST.
    We should have a lot more information late today and then we can think of the best course of action.

  17. Goild

    The effects of the Italian result are said to not have an immediate effect, like in the case of the Brexit. The later consequences are the main concern.

    Though from a trader’s point of view consider that the USD is run very smoothly, it has not significant daily gaps.
    Tomorrow at 7:00 AM EST, before the extended session starts, there should be plenty of time to dump shares if the USD would have very good news. Then the question is what are the bad or good news for the USD?

  18. Goild

    On June 24th 2016, the day after the Brexit, the Euro/USD went down as far as -5% to end up a -3% for the day. The miners when to a peak of about +20% to end at about 12% up. Gold went up about 5%.
    Who knows what would happen to the miners tomorrow. Likely it would be a volatile day. How dump, I should have known this last week.
    Currently the EUR/USD is at -1%,

    1. LiesandDamnLies

      Hi It’s Lies again

      I posted earlier which some may you have missed. This seems to me as the same set up for the same setup Dec- Apr last year 2015. The Fed are going to raise interest rates 0.25 to 0.50. It happened last year a 0.25 rise. A repeat of the same time and the same results ( I suspect) across the various markets that happened last years . Why not?

      Go and check out the various markets your interested in from today until April next year. Compare them with what happened 12 months ago. They knew that interest rates were going to rise last year and we know that they are going to rise the same amount this year. Its a no brainer.

      Any way check out my earlier post on how to trade.

      Cheers

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