108 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – Gold & Miners

  1. lokum_

    Well, there must be a reason why gold is lagging and steel companies grew six times this year alone. Also gold did not do well in the Reagan years and Trump has similar polices for tax cuts and deregulations.

    1. Gary Post author

      Virtually all commodities are up this year. We printed a 3 year cycle low in the CRB at the beginning of the year. We are entering an inflationary phase.

      Even after a 4 month correction the miners are still up 64%. Some of the juniors are up 500-800%.

      1. ras

        Very true, Gary and very down to earth chart interpretation. I have no idea if gold is going to go back to 1050 level as some experts seem to opine (an ex is a has been and a spurt is drip under pressure). What is missing is proper alignment of mas for a sustained up move from here. 2-3 months of sideways churning could do the trick. We will cross that bridge when we get there. In the meanwhile, one could take advantage of mini profit making trades elsewhere.

        SM seems to be at an extreme stretch. It is not a place for folks who are afraid of heights. it could stay elevated into early part of the new year and then experience a brief but scary pull back. The behaviour of pm complex during that time could be telling.

        Thank you for explaining in a previous post your methodology which gives top priority to cycles with other tools playing a second fiddle. Everyone is entitled to choose a method that works for him. Others could be using cycles and sentiment as supplementary tools relative to price movement with respect to key mas. Any method which enables an analyst to stay on the right side of price without missing sector rotation is great. Keep up the good work.

      2. Goldlion78

        You bet, Gary. My biggest holding Mexus Gold is up 14,000% for the year. It’s been a fund ride and has done it in the headwinds of gold for the past 4 months. Thanks for all you do.

  2. Dday

    Gary from yesterday….

    “…Charts can only show history, not the future πŸ™‚

    Our minds project price into the future based on recency bias.”

  3. Goild

    Immediate past in the market is often a good indicator.
    Extremes in the market are always played.
    Why? because the market is relentless.
    For gold to go up today it would have to give a last kiss to the bears, at perhaps 1150-1160?

    1. Paul

      Telling the market what to do is dangerous… how about following the Price action or Trend? That makes sense to me… no one knows the future…

  4. Goild

    It would be interesting to see the effect of fear right after the open.
    I guess this is a bit like in the Roman times in the coliseum; someone is going to be slaughtered.

  5. Goild

    Looking ahead I wonder about the uncertain Monday, and the days just before 12/14th at 2:00 PM.
    Perhaps gold will be run up a bit, to then let it go to the next step deep down?
    Or are we seeing the last bits of the bottom?
    What is the shape of the bottom, like at the beginning of the year? Likely not.
    Given the steady downward movement, is it like a Y?
    Or a sideways trend will come?

    1. vin

      Goild, thank you for your advise. I will certainly follow it. I have started to do well. What a turn around? You are one of the few on this forum who has made sense to me. I am glad that I met you. Yes to some extent I am aware that trading is a dangerous game. I will try to remember that. But, you know one tends to forget it when luck is in favor. And, right now that is where I am. Thank you, my friend. I wish that you perform well, just like I.

      1. Goild

        Vin,

        Thanks for the comments.
        Beware of euphoria.
        This is a great site.
        It is interesting how one gets kind of attached to the contributor’s comments here.

    2. Paul

      Fear, Greed & Hope… expectations are dangerous… and can lead to disappointment… Following Price Action from an End of Day Perspective is not hard or time consider… Don’t OVERTHINK… when that happens… it means…
      you letting your emotions guide you which is dangerous…

  6. vin

    Gary, thank you so much for the excellent chart and your valuable advise.

    Being a contrarian I plan to short gold.

    I just shorted euro against dollar. And, guess what? Yes, you guessed it right. I am already doing well.

    Wish me luck in both these shorts. And, thanks again.

  7. bginvestor

    Oh, the yen , shows a bottoming “potentially” forming.. This is good for gold. It has not yet reversed yet though..

  8. Paul

    When a Trader has Big Expectations… it leads to telling the Market what to do instead of following the Trend… I try to follow a position without a strong bias…
    When someone get attaches to an expectation… it can lead to blind spots… until the Trendline is broken… I have assume the Downtrend is still in tack… meaning all or most bounce fail to be the Pivot… I agree with Gary that a low may have been put in or is close… but nonetheless… sometimes a Bottoming process takes longer than one can want… I like Gary’s Smart Money Tracker… because offer a different view of the market… and I am here because I appreciate his Feedback… for those who want other bloggers to give you exact entries… I would suggest… finding a Trading Plan that can be used without asking someone else or following someone else advice… in those case… being a subscriber might be the right move… but if people have to second guess all the time… then they probably should leave the market alone… the market is not for everyone and is designed to steal the Rookies/Retail investors money as quickly as possible… Take a stand or position with a stop loss… but second guessing is for losers… nothing person- p

  9. jonsyl

    healthcare, biotech in funk lately but holding on, any near term buying laggards will give a final lift to equities as Nasdaq will also head to new highs. Vix finally showing ongoing diverge nce but not conclusive. Will continue to wait for shorting opportunity or buying volatility. The scorch continues. Gold keeps floundering so holding with originally set ll50 low as exit. Very tenuous.

  10. Gary Post author

    This could play out almost exactly like last years YCL. The miners and silver are diverging indicating big money is accumulating.

    Now all we need is the quick undercut low like we got last January in miners to run everyone’s stops and allow the banks their final entry.

    Best guess is it will happen either on the FOMC meeting or right after it.

    Weekly charts oversold? Check

    In the timing band for a major cycle low? Check.

    Sentiment at bearish extremes? It’s actually more bearish now than at the bottom last year. Check?

    Now one just needs to hang on long enough for the bottom to form… or wait for a weekly swing if you are still in cash.

  11. vin

    Since the euro/$ position is doing so well, since the sp longs are doing so well, since the long banks are doing so well, I have decided to take some risk and short golds!

    jnug @7.39 short!

      1. Dday

        Also MACD showing no signs of bottoming, and neither are the stoch, or TSI, again compare with the 2013 low.(rsi). Still keep smoking the hopium pipe.

  12. Gary Post author

    The XAU is forming a volatility coil. These usually generate a big powerful move when the coil breaks. Considering gold is 40+ days into its daily cycle, there’s a pretty good chance the coil will break higher.

    1. Gary Post author

      I tend to think we may be repeating last years YCL. We are almost exactly 12 months from that low. Right in the timing band for the YCL.

      1. Spanky

        No, this time there will be another massive leg down, not another rounded bottom. You of all people say charts don’t repeat. This is a prime example.

        1. Paul

          The Market loves people who try to tell it what to do or expect… these are the guys who get caught holding or just plain miss the miss move… emotion makes blind spots- take off the rose colored glass and throw away the crystal ball- p

  13. Goild

    Dday,

    Nice charts. Interesting to see the Yen reaching support.
    I agree we are at the turn/reversal.
    Just be patient for Monday where the last push down could be done.
    Good trading to all.
    I am done for the day and will have a nice weekend. Same to you.

  14. Don

    Gary, you are so focused on the gold and the miners, you are completely missing out on sectors that are actually going up and making investors money. BTW. congratulations for all the new faces here on the blog. Too bad the ones that actually knew something are gone but that is how it has always been.

    1. Paul

      falling in love with sectors and expectations are a big no no in my book- well spotted Don- I am not a SM subscriber… so I can really say whether Gary missed the moved… I am new to the blog- p

  15. chrisG

    This week likely mark the low in gold. Trump will want a weak currency. He kept calling others currency manipulator. Market will sense his tendencies

  16. chrisG

    The greatest irony for Alex is that he missed all the melt up. Then eventually he will get it right on some pullback. And he may blow trumpet over a 300 points drop, while missing a 1000 rally πŸ˜‰

    1. Pedestrian

      Exactly as I have been saying all along. And now Martin Armstrong agrees with me. Who was it on this site who said they were going to copy my recent bearish posts on gold and play them back to me next year when gold was much higher?

      Can’t recall now.

      But good luck with that. Gold has nearly completed its bear market rally and will fully retrace itself back to where it began in January before falling to new lows. These declines will continue next year. Here is Martin’s version of events. And incidentally, does anyone here recall me saying that the Indian currency cancellation would end up killing gold? No? OK fine, then just go back and read that post for yourselves. I left it on election night to a few guffaws and various insults. Someone here even called me a dick! Too damned funny. Oh look! Armstrong agrees.

      https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-headed-lower-under-1000-into-the-abyss/

  17. Spanky

    Looks like a classic bear flag to me. Of course the market will bounce, some day. But to me this smacks of 2012 on so many fronts.

    Bottoms in the metals will never ever be easy. There will always be some sort of ridiculous additional 10-30% spike down in a week and then immediate reversal, just like last January and I expect no less this time. There is no such thing as high consolidations or platueaus in metals and miners. Its straight up and straight down and technicals means diddly squat.

    The temptation to take $HUI below the 100 WMA is too tempting. They will probably spike it down to 130-150 next 2 weeks, before finally letting it reverse.

  18. Spanky

    There is literally no floor on the yen based on their policy statement. None.

    Even if we get a technical bounce, it is headed to zero vs USD unless the BoJ reverses course. The only other thing that could save gold would be for the Fed to ease more than the BoJ, but that ain’t happening anytime soon.

    You are literally at the mercy of CBs, not matter what you trade. And they have expressly stated that stocks are the place to be.

    The BoJ clearly has a target in mind where they will reverse or the Fed will magically start easing again, but clearly you and I are not privy to that. In the meantime, they have told everyone exactly what yen, commodities and stocks are going to do directionally.

  19. Spanky

    If they send $gold down hard enough, that divergence you are showing in the TSI will disappear. And because right now $gold is acting like a bear market in terms of momentum oscillators being stuck in oversold territory for months, I can guarantee you they will never ever let that kind of a technical signal work to the upside. It’s a total set up–a classic bull trap.

    They are going to pound gold on one last leg down that takes us sub $1100 (basically to the lower bollinger band on the monthly chart), before letting it bounce.

  20. Spanky

    Here is a tip that would have made incredible gains over the last 9 years. BTFD in the stock market. You literally cannot ever lose. At most you will see a 5% drawdown if your timing is absolutely the worst possible.

  21. Markab

    Crazy to me that people, week after week, keep calling for a bottom in gold which never happens. Time to admit definitively there was no “baby bull” here, at least in gold price. And many commodities have not gone up…silver, platinum, rhodium have all performed poorly. And nearly all the gains from earlier in the year are now gone.

    Meanwhile, people keep looking for a top in the stock market. Never gonna happen. This is already one of the longest and strongest bull markets in history and the best we could do for a correction officially happened in 2011 and nearly every drop of a few percent is immediately bought with new highs in a couple of weeks. I see no reason why $700 gold is out of the question. Look at platinum…about to fall once again under $900. Soon you won’t be able to give the stuff away.

    1. Dday

      It’s not crazy to me just history repeating. Gold bugs getting sucked in on rallies, then refusing defeat on the way down. Aka 2012.

      1. bginvestor

        well Dday, I see two likely scenarios.. Your gold bug slap fest OR Gary’s opinion of a quick wash out, and reversal up..

        I have conflicting indicators right now. I hate it when that happens. Maybe I need to figure out how to weight an indicator versus another..

        1. Dday

          Yea I agree both possibilities possible. I think a neutral stance needed. Cash and wait. I was referring to, continually waiting for a reversal which is what happend between 2012-2016, and yes gold bugs were slapped in the face. For me if $1170 doesn’t hold then the 61.8 fib has gone. Plus the weekly bear candle, I can’t ignore those two factors. But the XAU rising against gold fall, I agree could be bullish. Continued hopium posts, “gold has to rise” annoy me, as I’m sure me highlighting them annoys others… The overall technicals look more bearish than bullish… Again just my opinion…

    1. daverobson

      Nice call on oil…… Alex the Yen seems never to bottom.. Any idea for USD/JYP high target? I think your scorch might be delayed until January? Any thoughts?

  22. Dday

    I think the main train of thought on here is that the bear is over and we are simply in a correction. My thinking is that the bull phase from late 2015 to mid 2016 was simply a bull trap, and that now we are in the beginning s of the denial phase. If i’m right the capitulation phase which will take gold well below $1000 hasn’t even begun, if i’m wrong i’ll simply buy a little higher. To be fair Gary is giving the same advice hold cash, but also stating hold a little longer if still invested(that could be costly). Be careful, take a long hard look at where the dollar currently is and where gold is. Original dollar call 98.5 tops, gold $1275.

    1. ras

      Great thoughtful post, Dday. That is a possibility. We could be starting a capitulation phase in pms. In this business, one should be able to hold in his mind diametrically opposite views and still function effectively. If that should be the case, play inverse etfs to catch the capitulation phase after it begins. It is catastrophic to be on the wrong side of price for 4 months plus and see capital erode 60% plus. There is no profit in finger pointing and every person needs to take responsibility for his action/inaction. What we see on this board are just individual opinions which may not pan out. Caveat emptor!

  23. 1970confused

    My first time posting after following Gary for a long time. Fed up of reading the negative comments on precious metals. Gary people seem to show up out of nowhere at the extreme of moves. Like Duck now Golid….trying tot scare people instead of helping!? Not once did I read a comment from these guys during the first 6 months of the rally. No, they decided to show up when Gold started its correction. Gold down everyday for almost 5 weeks now, the Yen losing 15% against the US$ in the last month, NORMAL YESSSS!!!!! This is extreme and if you are a true contrarian then this is the time to buy.

    I truly believe this is a manipulated to the gills market that the authorities in charge burry there heads in the sand. I think its because 99% of the people couldn’t care less about the markets let alone the precious
    metals because the working class just make enough to live no money to invest. So when the truth comes out like the news we had yesterday about the banks admitting to manipulation, there is no reaction!!!!????

  24. Dday

    Silver daily shows the last silver rally met resistance then turned down for the next decline, so far looks like the same again, hit 17.3. Next decline target high 15’s. On the technicals macd histogram beginning to turn, stochastic already overbought, rsi neutral.

    http://invst.ly/2w-xz

  25. Dday

    In a denile phase you can get out with manageable losses, in a capitulation phase your account/savings will be destroyed. I’m talking from past experience, cash for now…

    1. bginvestor

      stopped out on everything.. except re-entry on JNUG.. JNUG is right at support which represents 4 weeks or so of consolidation.. fuck, we’ll see..

    1. vin

      It is so easy to make money trading! In fact in last couple of weeks trading has been more beneficial than last months of working. How did I do it ……. very simple.

      I just took the contrarian approach to everything that is agreed upon here, be it gold, SP, euro, dow or oils.

      I am sure one day this approach, like any other, will not work. And, then I will follow the experts here. In the meantime wish me luck.

      1. bginvestor

        vin, “its so easy to make money?” Didn’t you say last week or so, that you lost more than you should have?

        Oh, maybe your joking.. I get it.

    2. Goild

      Vin,

      Awesome that you are doing well!
      In my view you did something amazing; this is holding your jnug shares, sitting there, and not selling early.
      Is this sitting something natural to you? In day trading it is one of the most difficult things to do.
      Did you play strong on jnug?

      1. vin

        Goild, It has simply been incredible. I know very little about investments, trading or anything else. I guess I have been extremely licky, not only with jnug but everything else. Whatever I did, turned out to be right. I certainly did well with golds but investing(long) in stocks (leveraged) was even better. The reversal from a few weeks ago has been quite exciting.

        When I first wrote here and you responded lovingly and positively, I was quite frustrated and angry at myself for losing so much of my hard earned money.

        Now I have covered all speculative positions. By that I mean I am only left with some permanent positions which I don’t even look at. They provide me small income and they have done well over the years. btw I do have golds in there,

        I plan to go in again on Monday. Please wish me luck. And, I hope and wish that you do very well, even better than I. You are a kind person.

  26. jskauai

    Dear Santa, I am writing to let you know that my baby bull got sick last summer. He has recently past away! Could you please send me a new baby bull for Christmas? I have been a good boy all year, so please, please I so miss my baby bull, thank you in advance. JS

    1. Pedestrian

      Santa says its on its way. You will find it packed under the Christmas tree in a big jar of formaldehyde.

      1. jskauai

        Pedi, IMHO, the gentlemen controlling the prices for gold/silver understand that you don’t want have golden goose for dinner. Instead, baby bull veal chops are quite tasty and they have been on the menu of late.

        1. Pedestrian

          Hey, you recall all the talk some months back about how the Commercials were going to get their arses handed them for betting against the bugs when both camps went to extremes on the COT’s? It seems hilarious in retrospect.

          But yeah, we were all warned. And those record short positions are the ones coming out on top in the end. Who knew eh?

    2. vin

      Come on guys? We all know that this is all due to manipulation. Otherwise it is a bull market and you can never lose money going long. You just have to wait. Those who don’t go long now will feel sorry in two months. If you don’t believe me ask experts.

    1. Pedestrian

      Unfortunately. Too bad too. I am in the bear camp but stuck out my neck and bet we would get a relief bounce this week. Boo-hoo it did not pay off. Serves me right I suppose. I should have just stuck with the original theme instead of playing both sides during an obvious price crash.

  27. Bull

    I thought it would at least do a dead cat bounce. This is a bug on a windshield. Question now, is how low will it go Wednesday.

  28. Pedestrian

    The 30 year bond is down big time again today. Almost 2 dollars at one point intraday. And just like gold it is going to retrace all of its move since January this year and probably see new lows. We are damned close to where it closed out 2015 already and only about 9 bucks away from the point at which it will below the lowest point in 2015 meaning we could close end this year with a massive outside reversal on the 30.

    Keep it on your radar folks. It will be newsworthy even if the season is otherwise a jolly one.

  29. bginvestor

    I think I’m going to throw away my goldbug merit badge.. how’s that for sediment?

    he he.. we’ll see if GDX bounces off support or not on Monday..

  30. ted

    It’s just so sadly ironic that the market is moving into a parabolic bullish phase, and Gary is chasing Gold. This is tragic in every sense of the word!

  31. TraderPete

    Silver bottomed on 11/25/16. It retraced about 67% of its baby bull move, which is typical of silver. Gold has now retraced about 67% of its baby bull move, and should bottom soon if it didn’t today (12/9/16), just 14 days after silver. Therefore, silver bottomed first, and is now leading the precious metals market into the next impulse wave, which is also typical of silver. The bull market is still intact. We just had a brutal correction. We should expect much higher prices next year that supersede the previous highs. QED, QEF, and IMO. 😎
    PS: I’m still in Gary’s camp. πŸ‘½βœ¨

    1. wazcam

      Look at Palladium. Even better position than Silver. What that does will decide the move in the sector.

      Just a thought.

    2. Spanky

      I hope you are right but I think the positive divergences we see in the miners and silver could be given back next week, which means even if gold is close in time and price to a bottom, the miners and silver are going to take a beating in the next couple of weeks.

  32. Spanky

    Other than getting the bottom in gold right, Gary has been a contrarian indicator since at least March–calling for corrections and even shorting mining stocks as they blazed higher, and then going long 3X long miners in August or September.

    To me his bottom calls here echo of 2013.

    I hope I am dead wrong on this, as I am long miners (and have been long since fall of 2015). But the similarities are just so close.

    And yes, I realize that sentiment sucks now and $gold is easily as oversold as it has been in at least 20 or 30 years by some metrics–so of course we will get some sort of bounce, right? The Fed will save us just like in Dec. 2015 right?

    As oversold as gold is, it has room in the short run to drop anywhere they want to take it. So while a bounce may be very close in time, there is a chance it could come from much much lower levels.

    1. Gary Post author

      I never short stocks mining or otherwise. And we took profits at almost the exact top in August. I noted at the time that the miners were 75% above the 200 DMA and would need to cool off for awhile.

  33. Gary Post author

    Dumb money confidence in the stock market has now hit a rare level of euphoria. 80% bulls.

    This kind of complacency almost never ends well when the profit taking event starts.

  34. vin

    bginvestor: No. I am not joking. I followed the advise given by the experts on this blog for a couple of months and I lost a bundle. And, I lost it quite fast. However, a couple of weeks ago I realized that every prediction by gurus here was wrong (except for the bond collapse), and that they are consistently wrong. I decided to be a contrarian.

    I did put some money in the market (long) while shorting a little bit golds yet I was timid and afraid to go against the advise of such great experts who know so much. Then I posted here that advise given on this forum made me lose more than I should have, to find out what did others think. Of-course, I got a response from the head which made no sense to me.

    Yet I got some excellent advise from Goild. It gave me confidence and I decided to “invest” more. As my gains multiplied I kept on investing on hourly basis. And, today was a wonderful day.

    I have now covered all my positions with gains I could not have imagined.

    My logic is simple. How can gold go up when the bonds are falling i.e. interest rates are going up? And, 100s of billions coming out the bonds have to go somewhere. Some of it has to go in stocks when it looks like Trump will be a positive factor for the market and the economy.

    On Monday I plan to goin again. Wish me luck.

    1. Pedestrian

      Kind of curious Vin but who exactly are these site experts that you followed? Your comment is pretty hilarious otherwise. You are basically saying you went to a free site and then trusted a bunch of anonymous people online with your investing decision based on the random tips and conversations they were having.

      Holy shit man. How f*cking stupid are you?

  35. Goild

    A view is that the miners were super inflated with air.
    Some people say the cost of a gold’s once is something like $700 real cost plus $500 management.
    The LYD link Victor gave calls for about $600. As pointed by Gary the miners have still a good gain this year.
    So there is plenty of room to still go lower.
    Oversold computer indicators are a tool, but cannot replace critical thinking.

    I still think that the support/resistance of goal around $1200 is a very strong magnet.
    Together with the realization that we are in economic boom, perhaps artificial, makes me think that we will have a reversal pretty soon.

    1. vin

      Goild I kept on shorting jnug the whole day. I even shorted some @6.66. I am of the view that it will slide further but did not want it to interfere with my weekend. Therefore, covered all the positions.

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