173 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – DOLLAR”

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    more likely scenario is EURUSD to touch 1.04 turf on immediate FOMC announcement aftermath, thus setting:
    – YCL for EUR and
    – an USD bull trap (confirm a new daily cycle with its high today on day 4).
    Then USD down in IC decline.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      this would come in nicely correlating with Stocks Market – as USD finds itself in an about one-month correction:
      1) USD down in IC decline starting with tomorrow, day 5, would render SM roll over into daily cycle decline till next week when USD puts in a HCL and stocks their DCL;
      2) USD would put a dead cat bounce as stocks rally on Christmas mood;
      3) around New Year’s Eve both stocks and USD down: USD down to ICL and stocks to YCL into January.

  3. Goild

    It seems that the bandwagon is being filled with people and going up.
    So I jumped into it, till 1:59:59 PM.
    Good trading to all.

  4. zkotpen

    Gary,

    I know you think that gold is in one ginormous IC decline of 27 weeks. I see it as two IC’s: The first was 17 weeks, the second is in week 10.

    B that as it may, I will infer from your comment that 27 weeks is a slightly long IC, therefore 17 weeks is to be expected, and 10 WEEKS IS STILL SHORT OF THE TIMING BAND 4 an EyE Cee LO!

  5. Goild

    Alex,

    On election day the USD candle/shadow length was about 3%, the recent longest candle on 5th/12 is about 2%.
    So it would be interesting to compare with how it is for USD today.
    You are thinking USD perhaps to 1.04 which it would be 3%.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Goild, I said 1.04 turf.
      By this I refer that EURUSD can bottom at 1.0499 today (or early tomorrow, in Asian trading) or at 1.0450 or 1.0401, I don’t know.
      That’s because I do think that so extreme USD-mania should be strong enough to change the hundred-pip figure of EURUSD from 5 into 4 to allow sentiment to reset and EURUSD to move above 1.10 through JAN.

  7. Pedestrian

    I am looking for gold to bounce to 1200 and not exceed that number by more than a few cents. Any bounce that does materialize is one that should probably be sold so my plan is to get ready to get short again if the chart plays out as I anticipate.

  8. pacoquin

    .. and if the Dollar just corrects down to 97-96… and then turns around to finally reach 118-120 in the long run… what would happen to Metals… like for instance .. what happened to Dollar bet 1999 and 2002 ??? and to Euro ?? Thnks

    1. Pedestrian

      Excellent question pacoquin. And you are in luck because I have an answer to that question. Go and open a monthly chart of gold and take a long look at the formation that represents the rise and fall of gold since December 2015 until present.

      What you see looks like a hump with sharp rises and falls on either side. By itself you can’t infer a lot from the pattern but if you step back and look at the same one year pattern on a yearly chart it is very clearly a reversal candle.

      And it has a lot further to fall.

      What that tells me is the dollar will perform really well for at least the next year or two. I have said it before and I will say it again; Gold is doomed. This is a major bear market we are in. It is a secular bear and there will not be a recovery for years to come.

      The party is over. Look elsewhere for opportunity.

          1. Pedestrian

            Excellent chart Wazcam. I am trying to do an overlay with gold now (something I have not done before with these two charts). But just a quick observation. Note that after the parabolic rise in mining stocks in the late 70’s, what followed was a number of left translated peaks. The overarching trend was down though until around year 2000. And that makes perfect sense to me since bubbles that collapse take years of recovery to heal. We have already seen the recent bubble blow off of the mining stocks sector that culminated with a double peak between the years 2007 and 2011. It is highly unlikely that condition would repeat anytime again soon (another double top blow-off) although the chart itself seems to imply we are at the bottom of the range and a lot of upside is available for speculators. This chart is some of the best evidence we have that gold and the miners that dig the stuff up out of the ground are two different animals. Whereas gold itself is impacted by currency market gyrations and the relative weakness or strength of the primary reserve currencies, mining stock has a whole host of other factors that will impact investment candidacy. Oil prices and energy are obviously key inputs and can play a large role in how miners perform. As will labour costs, the economic outlook, equity market bouyancy and the like. So miners could still perform well even if gold stays soft or falls depending on what happens in the larger economy. Anyway, I will try to get our two charts on a single page. I have not looked at this particular chart in a long time so I was pretty happy when you posted it. Gives me something interesting to do besides walking the dogs in the snow.

            Cheers!

          2. wazcam

            One more thing which is probably irrelevant but who knows…76-2000 roughly 24 years trough to trough.

            2000-2016 16 years trough to trough

            2016- 2024? 8 years trough to trough? Who knows

          3. Pedestrian

            Maybe the best one-line answer is to stick with mining equities for the foreseeable future and shun physical precious metals as their outlook is not so rosy. The metal stackers are going to be really challenged in the future to keep up with stock market gains although keep in mind these things are all relative and you have to know what you are comparing to know if you are ahead or behind. EG: number of ounces of gold to buy a house, a fixed amount of platinum, oil or the stock market. There is no question that ratios are important for long term investing. Maybe one day Gary will address this interesting area that does not get a lot of attention in a way most people might understand easily.

        2. wazcam

          What I would say is it is not my chart…just forwarding it on and seeing your perspective. I see we may have bottomed and triple bottom seems to be in. Looks like a lot of upside to go!

          1. Pedestrian

            Sure thing. I really appreciated that chart. Keep em coming. You correctly pointed out the 8 year gold cycle though and now you can see how the idea evolved. But really big charts can be a pain the ass too. They are not really tradeable. Certainly not in a way that would be satisfying for people who want to see monthly and quarterly performance results. And long charts can deceive as well. A secular trend might be obvious in the big picture but that hardly helps you when you get periodic wildcat bounces that shake things up and make you question your basic premise. To stay on top of things you really need to burrow down into the smaller degree charts. Everything can be traded depending on the time periods. Even I, a dyed in the blue gold-bear am currently long trying to catch a bounce. That’s the object as far as I can see anyway. To make a profit trading regardless of the direction.

          2. Pedestrian

            Here is a chart I dug up Wazcam. It will suffice as my overlay of the historical gold and BGMI is coming along slowly. Scroll down through the article to the first chart. All I really want you to focus on is the last 16 years since 2000.

            What you will notice is that mining stock followed along with the general equity markets even as they were trending along with rising gold prices. For example the 2008 market decline is very obvious (as is year 2000).

            In other words, the close relationship between the two is also subjected to equity market forces that periodically have a strong impact on performance. That warns that if (and when) a large sell-off in stocks come that miners will take a beating again regardless of what gold is doing. Conversly, if stock markets are strong and bouyant, expect miners to go along for the ride.

            I directed your attention to this particular chart because it came with a BGMI/Gold ratio chart attached. How helpful was that. And indeed, the future looks bright for miners.

  9. barney

    Not just the Russians and the Americans picking up physical –

    China, with all the restrictions, just imported 140 t physical gold last month.
    Shanghai just had 215t physical gold withdrawn from vault last month.

    https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/november-gold-price-down-chinese-sge-demand-strong-despite-import-curbs/

    Bankers think they can take gold below $1000 for any length of time? This is going to be fun… where is the popcorn.

    loaded 150% nugt, jnug, gold, silver etc
    If stopped out will now buy back in at lower price with increased position.

    Alex, I would not be too upset that every daily prediction does not work out. All of us have a constricted view on time (time being one of the main weapons at the disposal of bankers to shake the market out or trap them in ).

    Getting the direction right in the medium /long term , most of the time, will see you okay. All the best.

        1. Dday

          Point is they have bought at $1800, $1500, $1300, $1100. Not to say that that isn’t important but at the same time we have …

          “…Indian gold demand slumps after Axis Bank accounts frozen…”

          Gold being pretty much confiscated there….

          2. barney

            Yes governments buying from $1800.

            So if gold goes below $1000 do you think they will buy less or more?

            Indian demand has not slumped at all, evidenced by the jump in premiums for gold jumping the price to $3000 / oz . ie demand is rampant. Presently we have a supply chain blocked by the Government of India (who is also buy gold at lower prices). The free market will find a route around any government blockage. Do you think the recent withdrawal of paper notes by India will increase or decrease the present rampant demand for gold?

            All central banks buyers of gold. non Western CB especially due to geopolitical reasons and threats of war.

            Below $1000 there is unlimited demand for gold, so the bankers wont take it there for long. Plenty of other ways to skin a cat and keep gold in western banks.

          3. Pedestrian

            Barney, I know where you are coming from but it just so happens you are wrong. Central Banks already have a long history of selling gold at the bottom and buying at tops. It makes no sense at first until you understand that this is how gold prices are moderated globally and that this is done to manage the value of the dollar and thus international currency markets. So don’t hold your breathe waiting for CB’s to buy unlimited amounts of gold as price falls. Instead, they will begin to unload holdings. Here is a handy article showing how gold sales alleviate overpriced currencies and lead to devaluation. Things are never as they appear but you need to be a Central Banker to understand why they behave as they do.
            http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/when-central-banks-sell-gold-their-currencies-devalue

          4. barney

            Dear Pedestrian,

            thanks for your link and comments. The article is from 1998 I think. Times have changed – if CB want to devalue the currency there are now many ways to do this without selling gold (check out BOJ and BOE – both “winning” the currency game). The race to the bottom with currencies happens at the end of the implosion of industrial production that has happen in the West.
            This process, now in full flow, will support gold price in all currencies.

            Holding of gold by Central Banks and Government is now a matter of survival rather than a mechanism for moderating currencies. Its now a matter of mitigating against an existential risk as the transatlantic system collapses and power moves east.

            If you do not have industrial production to back your currency you had better have gold or its not going to be a happy ending.

            Of course if the USA does a 180 and starts being as productive as the 1960s where they produced the biggest middle class the world has ever seen all bets are off and I would swap my lumps of metal for USA companies no problem.

            All the best Ped

          5. Pedestrian

            Yes, the article is an older one but so far the program has not changed all that much. For example, you may have heard of Brown’s Bottom where the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced England would sell off its gold at a time when prices were already substantially below the peak year of 1980.

            What happened was during the period of the sale of 400 tonnes of gold between 1999 and 2002 was that Sterling was devalued more than 20 percent. Objective achieved despite a hue and cry from the bugs as gold fell in price another 10% in the aftermath.

            The whole exercise in other words was to impact on domestic currency strength versus dollars and dollars of course are often enough the inverse of gold. We are seeing the same thing happen now with South American countries selling off gold as their currencies decline. Argentina and Venezuela come to mind. Up North, Canada also dumped all its gold.

            Curious isn’t it?

            What almost nobody in the gold community talks about (make that nobody at all) is that a number of Central Banks have engaged in gold selling even as a small handful of countries take the headlines for being buyers. When Russia, China and Turkey and Saudi Arabia expand reserves it hogs all the gold-bug headlines as if something really remarkable is taking place.

            But look at this other chart and ask yourself why others are dishoarding.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve#/media/File:Gold_reserve_changes_1993-2014.png

  10. jonsyl

    gold hanging by a thread. post fed announcement likely to result in more of the same. too many waiting for pullback in equities to buy. possible rotation into laggards will provide another lift in spx. will know soon no need to be premature with guesses

  13. Robert

    Is it gonna be this easy with gold? Everyone is short. Puts were bought all of yesterday and more today. it is so one sided cant believe bears win so easy. Gold has not even had any decent bounce since election. SMH

  15. WallStreetJesus

    Gold is getting ready to rip higher. Let the scorch begin. The 10 year bond will rally, the commercials have a huge long position in the 10 year and that will send gold higher.

    This is too funny the gold is doomed group. In a couple months you will look back and see how badly you missed the turn in gold.

    Opportunity is here right now!!

    1. Pedestrian

      I am in for the bounce, Jesus. My philosophy on gold leans bearish but my trading is non-denominational which just means I don’t really give a shit if it goes up or down as long as I make money…..

      Forgive me!

  16. Goild

    Difficult day today so far.
    Now I am green and on cash.
    TMF is up and this is surprising as the expectation is for it to go down with the rate increase.
    It might be a sign that gold will go further up.
    I will wait for the spike and perhaps load NUGT at a lower price.
    Difficult to day.

    Alex, thanks for further commenting on EUR/USD.

  17. WallStreetJesus

    “We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.”
    William Casey, former CIA Director

  18. Goild

    The market seems to be standing still…
    Little volume.
    The big guys must already know exactly which way to go depending on the number at 2:00 PM.

  21. WallStreetJesus

    Haha fear is in the bond market. Everyone and their brother is short bonds. Lot of money about to change hands shortly.

    1. Robert

      Good chance gold sells off another 40 bucks. If you have to buy just buy very little and if it drops 40 bucks then you buy more down there.

    1. bginvestor

      With that said, I’m following through with the supports on my other charts (miners) until otherwise ..

  26. Goild

    What I read is that gold and the miners are not anticipating a bright day.

    The SM seems to be happy, with the V of Victoria.

  27. Don

    Gary, I see you are taking another crack at the ‘dollar is going down’ prediction. Stubborn, huh? Well, Sooner or later it will correct so no point in giving up on it now.

  29. Bull

    Fed speak.
    I give 20% odds, then Gold and bonds are screwed.

    Neutral; 75% odds Hold rally to about 1230 before next down leg. Bonds rally.

    Dovish; 5% odds: gold runs like hell, bonds rally, dollar is screwed.

    Stocks will be up no matter what.

  37. Alexandru Popovici

    USD in confirmed new daily cycle –> on just day 4 – plenty of time to rise a bit through tomorrow’s Asian trading (ICH) and then to revert in intermediary cycle decline through JAN – exactly as I anticipated in my first post above.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      I have also warned people here of a FED HOSTILE TO TRUMP – READY TO HYKE AT RATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE MARKET’S EXPECTATIONS! I’ve mentioned this very likely risk several times.

  39. Alexandru Popovici

    I have placed a short-stop order for SPX@2253 to raise my pilot short-SPX position to a full position.

  40. Robert

    Looks like GDX back to 20 by today or tomorrow. Either way the bottom is in for miners very soon. No way this continues another 2 – 3 months

    1. Pedestrian

      It’s just a paper cut on NUGT, Ras. I am not moved in the slightest to sell my position because the chart still suggests it is due for a rebound.

      1. ras

        Open to all possibilities. DUST wants to go up, nugt wants to go down. That is all I can see for now and for a few days.

        1. Pedestrian

          Probably right. Yen looks menacing. The only thing is FOMC days have a tendency to reverse once the smoke clears.

          1. Pedestrian

            Shoot. OK, nugt is smashed. Guess I am back to “gold is doooomed” and now people can laugh at me for buying it anyway. Did i mention i was one of the gold retards by any chance? LOL

          2. ras

            Easy does it. Nobody gets it right all the time. When dust peaks, nugt will turn around. But, gld daily chart looks very ugly. No surprise here if selling pressure takes over for a while.

            Sentiment readings were not very helpful today. Price is king, everything else is secondary. Cheers.

  42. Steffmeister

    Here is the brutal SMACK in JNUG … we really want the 1130-1140 to hold, Volume At Price is very bearish. however we are at the end of the year so seasonality plays a role here of course.

  43. jonsyl

    well at 1150, will await the close to bail on gold. dollar up and away, hope you’re finally right alex but not promising. yellen likely to take full licence in talking rates up in conference with blame on Trump fiscal policies. Dollar may very well go ballistic unless realization sets in about its negative effects on economy that trump wants to happen.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      swing high in Nyse and SPX after a DCH on day 26 …. it’s time for some profit taking 🙂
      DCLs in stocks and USDJPY next week as USD hits its HCL – Christmas should help USDJPY rise to its next DCH (lower high) before rolling over alongside USD and stocks.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      i.e., rolling over into the large, blazing flames of The Scorch to come post Christmas rally 🙂

  48. Alexandru Popovici

    SPX=2264 –> a major BEARISH development is here – exhausting the final breath of the bull in this daily cycle.

  56. Dday

    Dollar either retrace here or make a new high. I think we are about to leave the denial phase and enter the capitulation of gold. Call it a bear/ bull market whatever you want, gold has fallen through the 61.8% retracement of $1170, and can remain in a bull market all the way to $890.

  58. Robert

    Guys this is the finally washout! Im calling it, maybe gold 1100 that will be the final bottom! Everyone is now panicking its time to start buying gold and miners!!

  59. stockpick

    Gold continues to fail the retest of its recent lows……….means the path of least resistance is DOWN!

    Forget undercut and cycle theory! Gary is just aking stuff up since he believes gold is in a bull market……he will bring up some other indicator to make his case but the proof is in the pudding.

  61. Spanky

    Anyone bullish gold necessarily must be bullish yen.

    What is the bullish thesis for yen, other than dead cats tend to bounce sometimes?

  65. Don

    Gary, dollar is up over 1%, a huge move for the world’s reserve currency. Maybe it’s time to admit that you have no clue where the dollar is headed.

    1. Goild

      bginvestor,

      Congratulations!
      I guess you went short.
      Would you please tell us your thinking and how you execute it?

  68. pacoquin

    How was that.. dollar collapsing (with higher interest rates in Usa ? and Euro at 0 ??? )… and Gold skyrocketing… with Dollar up ?? Yr opinion is appreciated.. but like every other trader … sometimes… yr system.. is not reading well this sort of market. And u shld stop calling trolls to many people.. just reading markets different.. because in fact… they are right at this very moment… ego is a bad thing.. specially in this buz.. or call it stubborn. Thks

  70. Dday

    Clear breakout on the dollar. If you have been wearing the gold can’t fail hat, maybe time to take it off. Its not even mid December, which gives plenty of time for gold to make a yearly cycle low(below $1040).

    1. Spanky

      Agreed. With everything in place now by the CBs, the yen is headed into oblivion, and $gold along with it. The gold bulls have gotten utterly schooled by the CBs.

      DO NOT FIGHT THE FED. EVER.

  71. Bull

    Almost no chance bank of Japan tightens next week, so lower yen, lower gold, higher $$$. Question is will stocks begin bloodbath?? What do you think Alex? Thanks in advance.

  72. jeffd5584

    Watching these markets gyrate after another telegraphed miniscule interest rate hike makes it readily apparent that the CB’s of the world feel the need to manage these things 24/7. Illiquid, algo-driven garbage much of the time. The Nasdaq is the poster child for the neverending “squeeze”. Breaks the highs every few weeks to unload on another set of bagholders. The collusion must be epic.

  74. michelle

    I lobe how people are asking Alexandru what he thinks the SM will do when he has been wrong on on the SM for over a month now calling for the scorch

    1. jeffd5584

      Time to find a new hobby Michelle. Why don’t you take up scalping futures, so you can put your money where your mouth is.

  75. Dday

    The only positive I can see for PM’s at this minute anyway, is silver is still relatively strong above 61.8% fib retracement at $16.66. Regarding last years move I think gold was massively oversold as it had been falling for four years and was due a bounce, and yes it was an impressive one. It failed below $1400 which should have been a warning sign.

  76. realtrader

    I didn’t watch Yellen’s speech, but from the headline, she doesn’t make sense. She said Trump’s policies have a lot of uncertainty, but she also said that the decision (not just this rate hike, also the 3 more next year) was somewhat influenced by the Trump win. Sounds like she really loves this Trump rally opportunity to get what she wants, but she doesn’t actually believe that Trump will accomplish what he said he’s going to do.

  77. Robert

    Where is Gary? Is today the undercut low? I am seeing panick and large volumes on GDX, NUGT. Capitulation soon!

    1. vin

      very soon. any decade now. …… two months from now everyone will wonder how could they have missed this great rally in gold.

  79. Steffmeister

    That was a quick -5% loss trying to jump back in … this is fun a lot of action 🙂 I think Gold will have a strong rebound coming out of this massacre !

  80. vin

    ouch. the jnug I bought @6.54! Good thing I only bought a small quantity. Stilldown about $600. For the time being I hold on, though it looks terrible.

  86. Spanky

    Today was nothing short of hideous for the PM sector. Lots of huge outside day down candles.

    The $hui closed below the very very important 100 WMA today.

    If you are long metals, you have got nothing in your corner except a 40 year old gold bug meme about fiat always going to 0. Anyone suggesting this is still a bull market is a deluded dreamer.

      1. Bv

        Not much good if you are in Europe. Looks like we’re going to be in the soup when the market opens. Another bloodbath phase? When’s it going to end Gary?

      2. ras

        Gold is in a relentless weekly downtrend. Why bother catching a falling knife? It is not productive to outguess price.

  87. Alexandru Popovici

    BULL, things are to happen as I’ve anticipated up here earlier today – with a highprobability.
    So:
    1) USD to top tomorrow on day 5, hence treasuries (and gold, as they work habd in hand now) to bottom
    2) stock market & USDJPY down to DCLs next week as USD finds its HCL,
    3) Christmas rally in stocks and USD (USDJPY to find its lower high – the DCH) through DEC29 or so
    4) The Scorch turns its flames massive.

    1. Markab

      Gary, sounds like you’ve given up. So, can we officially dismiss the “baby bull” meme for gold? I always hated that term anyway, and it should be reconciled at this point that the first six months of the year was nothing more than a countertrend rally in a declining market.

    2. ras

      Cycles! They work when they do and also fail to work at times, like any other indicator. The writing has been on the wall since September for those who are willing to see. Sentiment readings were not of much help today. At some point, this could change. When? Who knows? One week at a time. Easy does it. Cheers.

  90. Markab

    I think the only hope for gold at this point is if the electors decide not to vote Trump in, creating uncertainty. Or if a massive trade war erupts with China. Both of those would likely hurt stocks too, which is good. But if we got into a shooting war with China, something tells me that would be bullish for stocks as the demand for war materials and construction costs would be good for business.

    1. cazabrujas

      If we get into a shooting war with China, you won’t have to worry about the stock market any more, because you are either going to be reduced to atomic ash or, if you are one of the “lucky” ones, will end up living in a post-apocalyptic nightmare.

      1. Markab

        No, I think if we were in a (limited) atomic war the S&P 500 would go sharply higher after an initial shock. That is how absurd things are now. But investors worldwide would be salivating at the trillions in new construction and infrastructure spending. Really, nothing is bearish for stocks anymore.

  91. Spanky

    You don’t often see any stock or commodity whose weekly stochastics flatline.

    $gold’s weekly stochastics are completely flatlined for over a month. That has never happened before and is frankly totally surreal.

    Take a look at yen ($xjy) weekly chart stochatics between 2012 and 2015. That fact that $gold is trading like a worthless currency like the yen is frankly shocking. There is no way this can be interpreted as long term bullish for gold.

    Bull markets don’t stay oversold for long, usually 1-3 weeks–and the stochastics certainly don’t flatline for weeks on end in the single digits as price continues to drop. This is a huge huge red flag that $gold is sick. Could this all be some incredible shakeout? It doesn’t look like it to me. In fact, I think there is a very very real danger we just continue to drop day after day after day, just like $XJY did a few years back.

    1. ras

      In a relentless downtrend, weekly stochastics can flat line indefinitely. It can go on for months. It is a derived indicator. You can not always decipher future price direction from it. Very often you can, but not always. There lies the danger. Just because weekly stochastics goes below 20 level it does not necessarily follow that the decline is going to end soon. The tail can not wag the dog.

      Go back and check Gary’s past videos. He was showing weekly stochastics to support his thesis that the decline could halt soon. That is why it is so dangerous to lean on one particular indicator. All indicators fail at times including cycles, stochastics, macd, adx, etc.

  92. Spanky

    Also note that the COTs even after all this carnage aren’t very bullish yet. The commercials have been covering at a snails pace. Maybe we see large coveting as we retest the lows, but the odds are any bounce out of the next low is going to be shorted hard. $gold is dead, at least until it tags the 200 month MA, around $900 currently. Anyone arguing to the contrary is simply a dreamer.

    1. ras

      Good post. No surprise here if that happens. It may take a while to get there with mini bounces and other distractions along the way. At that point, dust could go up to $200 +, with a forward split to boot. Actually, several analysts put forward this view way back in September and they were ridiculed.

    1. Markab

      And Overbought can always get more overbought. Reference US equities…up more than 3 fold over the last seven years with the last actually correction more than a half a decade ago. And everyone is bullish!

    2. ras

      Great example. Yeah, OS can get more OS. Sentiment readings and divergences readings,etc. have variable lead time. Price is the only thing that counts.

  95. GMoney

    Yellen is on the phone right now with Kuroda – they will have a fix for the exteme usd/jpy before the NY open.

  97. Pedestrian

    Not to bust up the bear party or anything, but unless my math is bad the HUI is going to end the day at almost precisely the .618 Fib retrace number. That is amazing considering the shellacking gold got today. And I might be insane but I did hold my position in NUGT for a bounce I still believe is coming. The HUI is our bell weather and what it says I value above many other charts. Should it fail here however I will just take the loss and call it a day. Tomorrow will surely tell the tale where miners are concerned but it is notable how sticky they are to the downside even as gold gets its teeth smashed out.

    1. Markab

      Not too surprising actually. That has been the status quo…the metal gets hammered and the miners have done (relatively) better. But the miners are probably just riding the larger stock market bull. But, I wouldn’t be too surprised if the miners have a massive leg downward if the stock market drops.

    2. ras

      Ped, you could get your bounce in nugt soon. Look at YCS and the way it is acting up. Draw your own conclusions.

    1. Pedestrian

      If Nugt is any help I think it is sniffing out a bare bottom (er, a bear bottom, excuse me). But with 93 million shares moving on a red day that almost qualifies as a capitulation. We have not seen that kind of action on Nugt in a year at least and with sentiment already so low this cannot go on too much longer.

      Not that I want to encourage anyone here as I am basically a bear at heart and this is a secular bear market we are in, but nothing goes down forever. Not even gold during one of its larger declines of 2016. So chins up everyone. It is always darkest before the dawn and another opportunity to buy will come along soon enough.

  100. dboz

    GDX held 19.80 also. Remarkable in fact. That is the line in the sand for GDX. That said, unless CHINA gets gold fever tonight, I see trouble ahead. Worse yet, I held. As many have stated, maybe one of these decades I can get back to even. I don’t even feel like selling any more. Beat down to care free.

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks for pointing that out Dboz. Up above I had also noted the HUI was refusing to break below its 62% fib. There is support here for miners. Its why I ignorantly refused to sell my losing position yesterday. But I was thinking back to election night and how big events or major announcements often cause short term chart gyrations that quickly reverse. When Trump was elected we initially saw gold soar. I refused to buy it. And 24 hours later all we had to show on the chart was a big fat reversal candle. So I was right not to get caught up in the hype thinking metals had turned a corner. Today may just deliver another reversal of yesterdays plunge on Yellens rate hike. And if we get that reversal then a rally will ensue in gold for a couple weeks at least. My charting warns we won’t get far above 1200 no matter what happens. But a bounce is still a bounce.

  103. Bull

    Play the gold dead cat and reinvest back to bourbon, hookers, and lottery tickets. Can’t do any worst than this bull market

  104. ras

    ycs going up gangbusters. Now @ 80. No visible resistance until 88 +. Likely, gld will continue in its downward trajectory. Pms will have their day in the sun, may be down the road. Worth looking into opportunities elsewhere where pendulum is beginning to swing in the opposite direction.

  106. ras

    There could be a glimmer of hope, a light at the end of the tunnel for folks focused on pms. Pull up the chart for sbgl. It could be getting very close for a complete retrace. It could lead the way when gold decides to stabilize. Cheers.

  107. chrisG

    Objectively, gold and silver had its chance to rally and fail. So it seems the likely target is last year’s low 1050

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