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Stay on the sidelines for now. This is not the time to try to pick a bottom until we get some kind of reversal.
Sensible approach. Time will tell.
Thanks for this excellent chart. It does put things in perspective. Though I have become quite positive on golds. I think this is VERY close to the bottom. Though the interest rates concern me. If treasuries keep on going down then gold and golds are in trouble.
Not sure how close we are to a bottom. We will know only in hindsight. Bottoming is a process, it takes time.
ras I could not agree more with you. But, to make money one needs to predict the future. If one is right one makes money and if one is wrong one loses money – as simple as that. Recently Gary’s prediction have been absolutely wrong in spite of his extraordinary skills. I feel that sometimes he gets carried away.
Predicting is fine. But, one must be prepared to make mid course corrections. Even rocket propulsion systems do it. Best course is to enter a trade when there is an excellent set up according to your trusted model.
No, it is not a question of getting carried away. It is part of human psyche. When one becomes very successful for a while, there is a subconscious urge to sabotage it. Gary was monumentally successful until August. He deserves kudos for that call. By August, some juniors increased in value 9-10 times. Gary was projecting another spirited move up on top of it. It is against common sense. Market needs rest and reset sentiment. BPGDM was at 90 plus. That was it for a while. It is extremely rare for markets to deliver 9X and 10X rises back to back. If it were so, none would work at a job and would stay glued to the ticker tape. Best of look to all nugt nd jnug players.
Neither trading or investing has anything to do with predicting the future. Trading is about probabilities and investing is about letting the data dictate how your positioned. Trying to predict the future is exactly what gets newbies in trouble and has them trying to pick tops and bottoms.
I wasn’t talking about predicting “tops” and “bottoms”. I was talking about predicting whether it is tops/bottoms, predicting the future based on “probabilities” or predicting the future based on the past “data” or anything else.
One gambles or for that matter “invests” because one thinks that the future price of whatever one buys will be higher. How one predicts the future is another matter.
Mac,
Nice comments!
I like particularly:
“Trading is about probabilities and investing is about letting the data dictate how your positioned. Trying to predict the future is exactly what gets newbies in trouble and has them trying to pick tops and bottoms.”
Exactly.
All the way up, all people talked about were the Cot reports. Now almost after a full retrace no one is talking about them?
My sentiment exactly. Too bullish etc etc. Now, no bulls and all shorts and it’s all good, not out of balance at all, can just keep falling infinitude.
It is just one indicator. Price is the most important indicator, everything else is secondary.
Because the speculators got wiped out and the Commercials won hands down. Of course nobody talks about that anymore. I recall reading one writer saying that the commercials were going to get their asses handed to them this time around. Too funny1 As if anyone sane believed it.
Actually open interest in the COT reports is back down to the levels that triggered the bottom last year.
I was talking about when the COTs were at all time record extremes.
Gary, by chance would you have the numbers.
Why not look for opportunities elsewhere while gold is probing for a low?
Gary’s opinion is now neutral to slightly negative on gold and he is asking people to stay away from gold for the time being.
For the record let me say that those who buy golds to-day will be laughing two months (or less) hence from today. I am considering buying more jnug around $5.
Good trading.
Absolutely.
I like your attitude. I was thinking if wading in deeper too since I figure “what the hell”, Monday will probably bring a bounce. And it can’t get too much worse short term anyway. When every fibre of your body says to sell that is indeed the time to get back in. As long as you have the stomach to take some draw down while you wait.
Bite my tongue. I take that back.
The Yen de-valued almost 18% since the elections. Gold down almost as much 16% in the same time(6 weeks)can anyone explain what gold as to do with the Yen and why its so highly correlated?!
that is quite confusing.
It just is and has been very tightly correlated, at least directionally, with yen since the mid 1990s.
It’s not a perfect day to day correlation, but I would say week to week, and definitely month to month, if yen is down, gold will be down.
This is literally why the CBs control the price of everything. In the very very long run, the absolute quantity of currency created leads to higher commodity prices. But in the medium to short run (10-20 years) it seems that all that matters are currency flows, and the CBs more or less control the flow of currencies 100% by modulating interest rate differentials between the major currencies.
The BoJ has as far as I am concerned created a freefall situation for the yen. At a minimum commodities will be flat and at worse they will go down. If you are speculating long, you are relying entirely on CB actions in the short to medium term.
Just found out that my jnug order got filled @4.65.
Vin, Looks like you’ve already lost 2% in the span of a few minutes. This thing isn’t going to stop till gold gets back to $400. Right now you are just catching massive falling knives. Just buy the S&P.
You are right about the loss. And, yes, it looks quite bad particularly when the treasury rates are rising. Yet, I am hopeful.
ouch …. now down ~4%
BTW, not criticizing. I lost about $10,000 on my gold and platinum acquisitions before selling all of it. And I was in steady acquisition mode since early 2005 (my first eight gold maple leaves were $422 each). My goal was for gold to get back to $1480, platinum to around $1600. Gary was so right on calling the earlier bottom in gold a year ago, I felt strongly about his calls that gold would at a minimum, get to the $1500-1550 level. It didn’t happen. Not blaming him as he is providing his insights on here for free, but I felt a simple 50% rise in gold was not anything compared to the 250% rise in the stock market. But when everyone in the world keeps buying US stocks and shuns every other asset, you are going to lose.
Markab, First of all no offence taken. I am here to read people like you. I want to learn from those who know more and from their experience. Yet I will never hold them responsible for my actions or follow them blindly. I am with you about the uncertainty in gold. In addition please know that money is coming out of the market, a huge amount. A fraction of that is going into SM. But, not in gold because yields are going up. Yet, at this stage I am positive on both gold and golds, specially golds.
Good luck trading and I hope you recover your money and them make some.
by market “market” I meant “bond market”
Dust would seem to be close to a hig: 70, after a +20 point move. So we could see a bounce in NUGT soon.
The fact that everyone on here is still “searching for a bottom” tells me we have a lot further to fall.
In fact, it looks like people have thrown in the towel. Even Gary has asked us not to invest right now.
The logical long term target is the 200 month moving average, which is just under $900 at the moment but rising. I think $gold needs a miracle in the short run to avoid heading down to that very long term moving average over the next year or so. It’s not even that far away at this point.
I think the yen has a lot further to fall before the BoJ and Fed relent. Therefore, that $900 target makes even more sense to me.
$900 is only $200 away now…I think the true “undercut” low will be quite a bit lower. Then, and only then, if we get some real carnage in the world, like a bona fide trade war with China, then maybe gold can pare some of its losses.
But like I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the worst economic news would bolster the stock market anyhow. Really, no matter what the news is, the stock market is up. No matter how absurd median valuations are in the stock market, the trend is up. Now, the old adage of “buy the dip” isn’t even true…there is no dip to buy anymore. No correction (10%+) since 2011!!!!!
yep, its crazy, but it really is pretty logical when you think about it. The Fed has expressly stated that QE was put in place to raise asset prices and create a wealth effect. Bernanke said this years back (2009 iirc). Couple that with the fact that we have banks that everyone knows are TBTF and are literally backstopped by the US govt since they were allowed to issue govt backed bonds back in ’08-’09.
It’s the ultimate moral hazard the CBs have created, maybe in the history of the world. You cannot lose more that 10%, even if you are the worst market timer ever. And I personally doubt we will see a correction of 10% until we see something ludicrous like Dow 30 or 40,0000. Every spare dime of liquidity is being pumped into the markets, mostly through the carry trade. And the beauty with yen carry trade is that commodities at best will be flat (and more likely down) at the same time US stock are skyrocketing. Just liquidate whatever you have, and on every red day in the Dow, buy a 2% position until you get a 100% position and never look back or worry about it. Profits are guaranteed by the Fed and BoJ.
I buy support/sell resistance.. not sure if I can make myself buy the DOW at resistance…
I was just looking at JDST and noticed that it has formed a beautiful bowl pattern between the end of May this year and present. It suggests a catastrophic collapse of junior mining share prices is coming over the next month and a half. I may have to entirely rethink my idea that a bottom in gold is anywhere near in the next weeks, let alone days.
On that basis I will get the hell out of this recent crappy NUGT trade I bought in spite of my belief the price collapse in gold cannot go on much longer. I now feel more certain based on a few charts I review that both gold and miners are heading into a big, black sucking hole and I am not prepared to lose another nickel holding on to false hopes.
We have all been there right?
Holding a trade that’s down but still believing it can’t go lower in spite of signals saying your trade was a big fat mistake? Well I am that guy for the last two days now and I don’t like it one little bit.
There’s the undercut (ie. downside breakout), now if it doesn’t go up it will go down, Great Info
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=2016-12-15&id=p62845878214&a=493823049
Sorry, this chart is gold with the yen overlaid so you can see the correlation.
long term gold and yen charts overlaid:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=2016-12-15&id=p62845878214&a=493823049
Platinum is now down $50 on the day. Even Palladium which had been the lone bright spot amongst the PMs, is down $30. Both of these are more industrial and so it almost throws cold water on this idea that the USA is now at the cusp of some great economic renaissance.
There is that platinum warning again. Someone here awhile back was saying that platinum was already telling us gold would crash. I think it was Duckwhorocks.
Nice move in Kold.
Ok I am calling a bottom right here. lol. I actually still am 100% long my silver miners, hoping against hope for a miracle.
To the moon!
I have been hesitant to call a bottom since September, but I am 100% confident today is the bottom in the metal sector.
Reason I am saying this is because I cannot think of a single reason to be long gold right now as a speculative investment (over a 100 year period I would always want to keep saving in gold). Not a single one. That has got to mean it is time to go long.
Spanky,
you got our attention….
Haha Spanky. You are truly a braver man than me. I am running for the damned hills now.
Ped, you could get your nugt/jnug bounce soon. Dust is losing steam. I am looking forward 2017. Cheers.
WOW! I guess it is the interest rates. 10 years treasury yielding ~2.6%. Not long ago it was at 1.35%. …… Gold and golds will have trouble while the rates are going up. I am sure at some point this increase will have to stopped, one way or another. It ain’t showing up in mortgages yet. What will happen they come up for renewal?
And, the yields seem to be upward bound. Yet, I am betting that this is an excellent opportunity to long on gold and golds, but specially gold.
Good trading.
I agree. time to go long. It’s just too too bearish and everyone is 1000% beholden to CBs power. There is literally no reason to own gold as a speculative investment at this moment–fundamental or technical–none, therefore it has to be a bottom.
i meant specially “golds” and not “gold”
Vin,
rates are up…
read zero hedge
Freddie mac just warned…banks need assets…foreclosures..
One does not need to read any zeros. You can see. Just watch the effect of interest rates if they are translated into individual borrowing. And, interest rates are bad for gold and golds. PERIOD.
Utility stocks have reverted to 10dma as treasuries fell.
Since Utilities got rejected by their 10dma, back up above 50ma and treasuries are all late in their daily cycles, it is a high chance that treasuries have bottomed.
Investing in gold in 2016 is like investing in horses in 1916 – it is all passed due. Gold is done as money reserve for the economy. Even if the best gold bug scenario plays out, there WON’T AND CAN NOT be a safe and distributed system to gurantee gold as money. Precious metals are being replaced by cryptocurrencies. Thus being said all the gold swings and moves are purely speculative and one can only hope that big money will keep going in and out PM funds.
I have always wondered about: “Gold is done as money reserve for the economy”. The only thing that stops me being sure is that there is no viable alternative as yet. CBs are a disaster in making, it is only a question of time. So, what money will be used when they lose control or even partially lose control. All currencies are more or less worthless,
There is a solution and it is called blockchain. And today banks, or watever financial institutions replace them, actively develop private distributed ledgers that will give the collateral for all the debt they will accumulate. Once they do that and once they get rid of and ban cache, all the gold will be more or less dumped onto jewlery market. Gold was collateral for state armies and warfare throughout history. With robots and drones precious metals as money are on the slope to oblivion.
Great post Lokum. Someone else here gets it.
Thanks loum_. Interesting indeed.
Though I feel that keeping theoretical accounts without any concrete medium of exchange is only experimental and of-course those in power would love it to succeeded.
Only future will tell whether it succeeds or not but note that the gold still lies with the powerful. They haven’t parted with it. I will bet you a coffee that VERY few gold bugs have gold in their possession. In fact I won’t be surprised that many staunch gold bugs on this forum have seen real gold, forget about owning it.
nugt could be on the verge of a bounce.
Can you elaborate because I am getting screwed by that pooch and I need some hope!
First of all, I am sure you already know this now, but you are an idiot for trying to catch the bottom using a 3x ETF. That is literally insane. I say this with affection though. Never ever do that again, IMO, because you will be very very easy to shake out. Then there is that decal thing, so that even if you are right in the long run, a devastating down move might be impossible to recoup.
There are literally no bulls left, other than people who own bullion and will never sell. The technical and fundamental reasons to own gold look terrible right now given the recent past and projecting that out into the future. There is no case you can make for gold based on the recent technicals and CB policy decisions–none as far as I am concerned. Literally every theory has been thrown out the window in the last 5 months.
This is the ultimate contrarian play right now. And today the bearish case looks completely bulletproof. Therefore, today is the bottom, although the miners could bounce around and maybe go a bit lower even if gold doesn’t make a new low after today.
Meant “decay” not decal.
Very well put Spanky. At, this stage it is a sheer gamble but an interesting one.
Actually I was not trying to catch a bottom. I bought a couple days back (before the FOMC) because I thought we were going to get a bounce. And no, I am not an idiot. No different than you really because all of us got caught one way or another by this gold crash. Well, one difference actually. I was short since the gold top in July and made out just fine. It was an impulse to play on the long side for a change of pace but my technicals were wrong this time.
Dust losing steam. nugt basing for some kind of bounce, just my read. good luck.
Looks like my jnug@$4.65 could very well turn out to be a good gamble. It is @4.70.
A nickel! Is this stand-up time? You are a lot funnier than I first imagined Vin because JNUG was trading at 31.58 almost exactly 4 months ago to the day. So that nickel comment must be comedy! Pure comedy.
Pedestrian, don’t forget that @11.44 it was selling @$4.24 and all you not so funny people were so sure of yourselves that gold is all done for.
Why are you experts ALWAYS wrong?
The split makes no difference on leveraged ETF’s because the chart is relative otherwise you could not read the chart. Post split the numbers are adjusted accordingly and the charts still read as any other ordinary chart might.
And as an aside I was 100% correct that gold was toast and told all you guys many months ago but was rudely rebuffed by all the piss and vinegar most of you idiot bugs dish out anytime someone objects to your pathetic little gold narrative.
You just refused to look at the facts. But they were posted here. Next time you might pay attention because a lot of money was made on the short side since back then.
I expect the dollar to correct when it reaches 104.50, bottoming at 97 or 96 about march 17. This cycle still has 13 months to run yet so it could still reach 112 by end of 2017.
ras, I agree with you and perhaps we have a bottom.
Now I am green with two NUGT lots at $5.77.
Spanky,
The idiot thing, is what I tell myself while driving around alone.
Sound trading advice as given by ras and look2525: do not try to pick up the bottom and stay above the averages.
However, there is a reason, if one really catches the bottom then one can play old turkey and perhaps expect a 10 bagger. Those that wait may only get a 5 bagger.
I am all for picking bottoms, but don’t do it using 3X leverage. especially on a vehicle that can gap down below your stop.
main logic here with gold is that it’s gone down so much it has to go up. well that could be said each week for the past dozen weeks. Sign of desperation, need some sign of a turn. When it comes then it will be more than a one day event with time to get in. Right now sounds like throwing darts hoping to hit the board let alone achieving a bulls eye.
With vix showing signs of not wanting to go down much more with equity rally, looking at that as maybe a better bet with something like tvix for a fling. However any selloff I suspect will be short lived as the retail crowd will want to buy the first dip. Eventually disaster will hit the market when Trump cronies and republican old guard get into infighting soon after inauguration
Regarding the cot report and comparing to last year. Here is a link
https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders#/technical-charts/GC*0
As you can see we are far from last years lows. They almost went to zero last year hit 300000 around the high and are currently hovering between 150000 and 200000. If i’m misreading please correct, but that indicates gold could fall a lot further before they reach low levels again.
Agreed. But everyone knows this, so as a contrarian, I think we are going up from here because everyone expects a retest now.
That would be illogical to me, technicals together with cots say a lower low, but you could be right….Who knows right..
I am with you on this one. I have already put the bet.
BABY BULL is OLD TURKEY.
You are wrong, IMO.
Now don’t go buying your metals back in the next month or anything, but I think you made a big mistake selling your bullion. Gold is bottoming right here.
10 billion notional gold sold yesterday according to ZH. That was 90,000 contracts dumped.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-15/silver-slammed-gold-crashes-below-1150-10-billion-post-fed-hike-puke
Well gold has held $1124, so thats a start I guess. Asian trading should be very interesting….
Today by days end we probably hit 100 million shares of NUGT traded. A record possibly? Capitulation time Dday. Check that JDST chart I mentioned before though. It looks ominous where junior miners are concerned. Just plug in a 6 month view as it will suffice.
.. and now.. today.. if I go by SILVER.. or tomorrow… fri rolloverday… and hopefully gold as well… and also temporary Dollar Top… after tremendous corrections in metal… e might have a temporary bottom. I kept searching for this situation and levels .. regardless of what Gary Savage said. He has been completely lost in the past wks-months with 2 important items : Dollar and metals. Its a fact. We all learn from these sort of mistakes. Let me just say, imo, in metals will just live a good rebound, and in Dollar a good correction. Thks
The miners so far over did their fall.
NUGT is at -15% while gold is at -1%.
In other bad days is about 1:10.
Not that anyone cares.. but I’m all in cash except for a short in $NATGAS
My charts suggests rates headed to test LONG term resistance, so not in bonds..
My charts suggest that gold paper action breaking down from critical support, so not in miner’s..
My charts suggest that SM market is peaking, with price action at HIGH standard deviations only seen at market tops or major corrections..
So, I guess I’ll be in CASH.. Will be interesting to see where the next opportunity will turn up…
Very smart. kold had a nice move today.
Being stubborn in the market is very expensive.
Had I followed the path of least resistance with DUST… I would be much greener.
Easy to say hard to do.
Yeah, dust could still be the place to be for a while, if you have the stomach to handle its volatility.
bginvestor,
You are smart !
Can you comment how you got your gift yesterday?
How was your thought process and how you executed it?
Goild, right, careful what you ask for, u might just get it…
I buy support/, sell resistance.. my support was the ~62 fib… that was the play..
So your saying there’s a chance? I would welcome ANY RELIEF at this point.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2016/12/15/47338712-14817973007115934.png
Nice charts to remind us that things can turn around very well.
The way I see it is that there is a lot of potential for going up.
Consider the feeling to see it bouncing being out.
I expect the HUI to bounce soon. My rationale? Even Enron had nice bounces on its way down.
bottom , yes..
but there is no reason for $HUI to bounce from here
Even Sun Energy had some nice rallies on the way out. The downside seems to never end here though.
I am getting a bit more optimistic as we approach 2017 and the 1st quarter of 2017.
I have zero optimism. I see nothing anywhere that signals things could get a boost.
Sorry to hear that. Optimism doe not mean getting carried away. Just keep positive outlook. Probably, nothing very significant until we hit 1050 region. After that, who knows?
Geez what a prediction..now Gary tells us that gold could hit 1045 or so..after swearing we were in a bull market and that timing doesnt matter..bulls correct all timing mistakes and so on. Bit by bit he will change his tune..once gold drops below 1100 then he will tell us that a double bottom will come but dont worry as it will move higher next year..then if we end up below 970 he will say..dont worry one more drop to 800-900 then the bull resumes..and on and on it goes.
Well to be fair, Gary over the last month has prefaced himself by saying “if gold is in a bull market, which I believe it is…” You could see the confidence dwindle during the fall. First $1500-1550…then $1400-1450…then “marginal new high above $1380…
Wake me up when gold gets down to $600. Won’t be too long now.
And before you dismiss $600 gold, the dollar index RIGHT NOW is at the same level as 2003, back when gold was $400. So even $600 gold represents a 50% premium.
Whatever….no gold miners in the world can’t produce at $600 all in cost. Wake me when you say something intelligent.
“No gold miners in the world can’t produce…” Speaking of intelligence…do yourself a favor and learn grammar.
It doesn’t really matter if gold miners can’t make a profit at $600. Many will still produce anyhow because that is all they know. Don’t believe me? Think homebuilders circa 2007-2010. They were building and (trying to) sell houses below their cost since that was all they knew…eternal hope that the market was soon going to turn around and keep their most loyal employees and their families employed for another month. Until many burnt through their cash reserves or their bank loans got yanked. Then they went bankrupt. And I would argue that housing is fundamentally more important (e.g. shelter) than a piece of metal that has next to no use.
Don’t feel badly though. I got suckered in too. But I decided to cut my losses and liquidate a $110K portfolio of physical metals that I had been adding to since 2005. At one point earlier this summer it was worth about $140K or a little more. But my stubbornness cost me a lot of money, as well as the eternal hope on this blog.
haha! What a girl. I’m buying this. Too many idiots like you throwing in the towel. I don’t feel bad at all, BTW. My largest Jr. is up 14,000% for the year and holding fir..
*firm
If your math is as good as your English, that is a doubtful claim (also called a lie).
Even if it swooshes down to 900 area, it may not stay there very long.
LOL!
Is swoosh the new word for crash? I will have to add it to my gold vocabulary.
Don’t forget the bloodbath phase last 4-7 days , scratch that, 4-7 months,
Where’s Duck??
He’s in GDX right now.. ;-0
It looks like my forecast of a bottom in gold and silver on 12/14/16, plus or minus one day, may pan out. I’m a genius 😀 👍 . We should now get a respectable bounce to about the first week of January, and then a retest of the lows about the first week of February. After that, I will analyze my charts and cycles to see if we should go lower, or if this was the bottom and the secular bull market is still intact, in which case we would continue to go higher to new highs.
pretty round about slep like sure man..
You’re genius! Hopefully gold does 1245 by mid January. That will be awesome !!
1245 gold?
There was a guy on this site pinching himself with happiness yesterday and bragging he bought back in at the right time because JNUG went up a whole god-damned nickel!!!! Ha ha. Made me laugh so hard I was dizzy and so I took some extra meds!
You know how many people have been telling us the bottom in gold is coming because of sentiment, because of fib lines, because of support levels, even because of the moon phase, and on and on. I have heard it from1300 all the way down to here so frankly I dont think anyone has a clue where the bottom is..lets just all be honest.
When I look at the chart of gold over the past year..nobody would have predicted that..a ramp straight up to 1380 and then a total collpase in about a month at the end of the year..I mean come on who are we fooling. And so called Gurus like Gary are no better and often even worse in their predictions.
I am waiting for him to tell us about the 4-7 day bloodbath phases and yada yada..and telling us that a double bottom will be a good thing..yada yada..
Lets face it most financial gurus are charlatans and often dont even have any real training in finance..isnt Gary an ex weight lifter..
You are right on, Canadian. So many people are convinced a bottom is near. If you like charts, the technical damage done over the last year, but particularly over the last month, is alarming. Every so called “support” level has given way easily. And as my comment above stated, the USD index is now up to 2003 levels, when gold was at 400 USD. We potentially have a long ways to fall from here. What seems to be happening is that for a few days, gold will be relatively subdued, trading in a daily range of -7 to +7 and everybody breathes a sigh of relief. Then, once or twice a week, gold gets monkey hammered -25 to -35 USD. We might bounce around the 1045 lows from last year but I expect once it is breeched (and it will be), it will be a very hard fall from there.
You’ve been watching too much Harry Dented TV. 😎
Well I said basically the same thing yesterday Mark and you got a bee in your bonnet and wrote me a pissed off post when I was merely making an observation that was already known by everybody.
I don’t know of anybody who gets it right all the time. That is where individual due diligence comes.
True enough Ras. But most have gotten it spectacularly wrong this year.
I know where the bottom is CDN. But I am not telling!
Xau also joining the HS camp. Projection is last yeara low. If so, given gold weakness, gold below 1000?
Scorched hopes dashed again. Based on my reading, no scorched. Next week market continues to be ok.Also look at dax, recently broke out.
When u pick bottom u get….. Ass shit
speak for yourself and spare us ok….
According to my charting research today, I see multiple indicators showing downside volume has exhausted and volume to the upside has been initiated. We should see at least a short term bounce coming real soon.
I initiated GDX January call options into the close. Let’s see what happens…
IMO, that is the best way to play it at this juncture. The problem with always waiting for that reversal is that it’s just as easy to get trapped buying another spike high on the slope of hope down towards its ultimate lows. At this juncture, the symmetry of this downtrend looks almost like a mirror image of the uptrend…
I also don’t know if I believe that there was a cycle low in there…By my count, the closest thing I found to a cycle projects a March low, but I’m sure one could find shorter cycles that produced some sort of bounce along this downtrend.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=14&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48521904334&a=390533047&r=333
Deep into the green right now.
Thought you were going to post 300% win in JDST..
dboz,
The chart appears to show that the bottom is around $1100.
Take 4% inflation this year, and multiply the $1045 gold low by 1.04 and one gets $1087.
Ball park about right.
Looks about right to me. Wanting to see a turn before that trend though like in 2008. I saw another interesting bullish take tonight. The guy used the dollar index vs gold ratio to take out the dollar as we are gold sellers here at the moment and gold has gone up more in other currencies. When you do that we are still above support so the bull is still possibly. Regardless, we can all agree this is a statistical freak from the beginning of the year. I hope to never be in the wringer like this stretch has put me through.
dboz,
In thinking about it the following argument popped up. Which I think is one that there is reason to count on.
You see, the market is relentless and is an extremist.
Las December and January both gold and oil were beaten to the maximum possible. The gold to miners ratio reached an extreme. Clearly that is the bottom.
It was $3.5 for NUGT times 1.04 for inflation or $3.64 today. Not very nice as we are currently at $5.91. One thing about this to have an idea of the worst case scenario. Hopefully it will now take off as there are some signs already. Another is to factor that oil is up, and so the middle way would be $4.77.
Lol, poor Tulip must have lost a lot during this sell off. Lousy skills. If u have no skills and try picking bottom, u get shit. The skillful will be able to exit with minimal damage.
Tulip must have many shit over his face. Great! Cos Shit is good for Tulip. It’s a natural fertilizer. Wahahaha
Damn Chris, did Tulip piss in your cheerios?
bginvestor,
Thanks for getting back to me.
However, please elaborate more. Say there is resistance, you are preparing a short, then at what point you actually short it?
It seems to me that you are playing the breakout which I think is one of the most difficult moves to play…
Yup, this is a wise saying, when u pick bottom, u get ass shit. This is to teach and warn those not so savvy not to anyhow pick bottom. Unless u know what u are doing. And u can’t do this pick bottom often .
Yet stupid Tulip doesn’t get it, and opened his stupid mouth.
Tulip is a woman. And Chris, you sound drunk. Why not sleep it off buddy.
Oops!!! Tulip is woman????!!! I din know that! But does it matter? I dun give a hoot.
We have quite a few women her I suspect. Like Alexandru’s ex-wife for example. Tulip is a lady in her early sixties if I am catching her writing style correctly.
Don, Bull,
Unfortunately Duck was not polite and had to go.
Respect for the host and all contributors is #1. Keeping good standards is a priority.
He left this address: http://goldbugspray.blogspot.com/
Kind of funny. He left and within a week of having a new blog started to block all the comments. Could not take the heat i guess. Maybe Avi threatened him with a lawsuit after his recent run-in and he caved to the pressure.
Everyone chill out! I am the biggest loser here and I am saying that we have bottomed temporarily. Only 20 bucks left to gold downside. We will bounce starting tomorrow maybe 2% in GDX. Gold is gonna bounce into January and then a retest of lows 1130. The retest will tell us if the true bottom is in. If it breaks 1100 then we will know that bear market will continue. This is my views
Anyone have thoughts on buying NUGT tomorrow?
Buy tomorrow on dip but just small
GMoney,
I loaded today more NUGT shares. I was thinking depending on how the day looks to double tomorrow. It might be a great opportunity to make good money. But one has to be very, very careful.
Take a look at the comment I just posted to dboz for worst case scenario on NUGT.
Robert, Previously I had shorted jnug and did very well when all the experts were sure that gold had bottomed. I have been negative on gold/golds for last few weeks and did well. Later on I did buy jnug. To-day I bought jnug at $4,65. I hope to do well.
Yes, I feel that nugt and jnug are an excellent bets at this point.
Though I disagree with your statement “Everyone chill out! I am the biggest loser here…” Based on what I read here I wouldn’t bet my shirt on that statement. There are some heavy weights here. Interestingly they are all negative on gold right now.
Lol You will make money on JNUG tomorrow excellent buy! Not like me with high average
Yes GMoney. I am already in from the day before the FOMC but down a fair chunk of change and thinking of adding more to smooth the loss with intention to take whatever gain the market offers in the next short while. I was planning on selling yesterday but it just bothered me so much I could not bring myself to do it after seeing gold get smashed so badly. I figure some kind of bounce is in the cards, however brief it may be.
Gary,
I was not asking if those dates were IC & DC highs/lows yesterday.
The dates I posted were those inflection points, plain and simple.
Ignore them at your peril!
The little bird is just an awesome analyst 🙂
**********************************
Steffmeister
December 13, 2016 at 2:27 am
Is a SMACK in Gold imminent ?
sold my JNUG last week with a 15% profit … a little bird whispered in my ear that gold is going down, short term
Bird was usually right. You have a direct line or something?
this is not theduckwhoworks, he was wrong about gold! Called the fat lady singing way too early …
This is a RETEST of 2015 low, if we manage to set a higher low (1045) we are in good shape and so far so good imo !
GDXJ-SILJ-SLV-HUI looking good if, and that is one big IF we turnaround about here, happy trading !
remember Seasonality we are in termination mode for precoius metals, it will soon (today/Monday) be over.
Yes, I would agree. Junior miners are going to see a price collapse before this is over. Don’t overstay your welcome if trying to play any bounces.
More specifically, I think we are going to get a stock market correction and what little life remains in miners will be snuffed out in the ensuing decline. No idea what kind of correction is coming or how deep but it appears to be in the cards for early in the New Year.
Chat between 2 gold traders, 2011-03-21
Deutsche Bank : “bro japan holiday today”
Deutsche Bank : “think it’ll be quiet”
Deutsche Bank : “well, illiquid, not quiet haha”
Deutsche Bank : “illiquid means wild wild west”
UBS : “okay when gold pops 1430”
UBS : “we whack it”
UBS : “u sell your 50k”
UBS : “i sell my 20k”
UBS : “then we double that up and produce our on liquidity too”
UBS : “that should be enough to cap it on a holiday”
Deutsche Bank : “haha yeah”
Deutsche Bank : “lol”
http://www.goldchartsrus.com/chartstemp/GoldMarketManipulation.php
Silver market Feb 3 2009
Millennium partners [Trader A] : “honest opinion – is hsbc brutal in metals ? …”
Deutsche Bank [Trader C] : “they front run whatever they can in spot and take no prisoners …”
http://www.goldchartsrus.com/chartstemp/MarketManipulation.php
Silver market, June 8, 2011
UBS [Trader A]: and if u have stops….
UBS [Trader A]: oh boy
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: HAHA
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: who ya gonna call!
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: STOP BUSTERS
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: deh deh deh deh dehdehdeh deh deh deh deh dehdehdeh
Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: haha