166 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – XAU

  1. Gary Post author

    Stay on the sidelines for now. This is not the time to try to pick a bottom until we get some kind of reversal.

  2. vin

    Thanks for this excellent chart. It does put things in perspective. Though I have become quite positive on golds. I think this is VERY close to the bottom. Though the interest rates concern me. If treasuries keep on going down then gold and golds are in trouble.

    1. ras

      Not sure how close we are to a bottom. We will know only in hindsight. Bottoming is a process, it takes time.

      1. vin

        ras I could not agree more with you. But, to make money one needs to predict the future. If one is right one makes money and if one is wrong one loses money – as simple as that. Recently Gary’s prediction have been absolutely wrong in spite of his extraordinary skills. I feel that sometimes he gets carried away.

        1. ras

          Predicting is fine. But, one must be prepared to make mid course corrections. Even rocket propulsion systems do it. Best course is to enter a trade when there is an excellent set up according to your trusted model.

          No, it is not a question of getting carried away. It is part of human psyche. When one becomes very successful for a while, there is a subconscious urge to sabotage it. Gary was monumentally successful until August. He deserves kudos for that call. By August, some juniors increased in value 9-10 times. Gary was projecting another spirited move up on top of it. It is against common sense. Market needs rest and reset sentiment. BPGDM was at 90 plus. That was it for a while. It is extremely rare for markets to deliver 9X and 10X rises back to back. If it were so, none would work at a job and would stay glued to the ticker tape. Best of look to all nugt nd jnug players.

        2. Mac

          Neither trading or investing has anything to do with predicting the future. Trading is about probabilities and investing is about letting the data dictate how your positioned. Trying to predict the future is exactly what gets newbies in trouble and has them trying to pick tops and bottoms.

          1. vin

            I wasn’t talking about predicting “tops” and “bottoms”. I was talking about predicting whether it is tops/bottoms, predicting the future based on “probabilities” or predicting the future based on the past “data” or anything else.

            One gambles or for that matter “invests” because one thinks that the future price of whatever one buys will be higher. How one predicts the future is another matter.

          2. Goild


            Nice comments!
            I like particularly:

            “Trading is about probabilities and investing is about letting the data dictate how your positioned. Trying to predict the future is exactly what gets newbies in trouble and has them trying to pick tops and bottoms.”

  3. 1970confused

    All the way up, all people talked about were the Cot reports. Now almost after a full retrace no one is talking about them?

    1. dboz

      My sentiment exactly. Too bullish etc etc. Now, no bulls and all shorts and it’s all good, not out of balance at all, can just keep falling infinitude.

    2. Pedestrian

      Because the speculators got wiped out and the Commercials won hands down. Of course nobody talks about that anymore. I recall reading one writer saying that the commercials were going to get their asses handed to them this time around. Too funny1 As if anyone sane believed it.

    3. Gary Post author

      Actually open interest in the COT reports is back down to the levels that triggered the bottom last year.

  4. vin

    Gary’s opinion is now neutral to slightly negative on gold and he is asking people to stay away from gold for the time being.

    For the record let me say that those who buy golds to-day will be laughing two months (or less) hence from today. I am considering buying more jnug around $5.

    Good trading.

      1. Pedestrian

        I like your attitude. I was thinking if wading in deeper too since I figure “what the hell”, Monday will probably bring a bounce. And it can’t get too much worse short term anyway. When every fibre of your body says to sell that is indeed the time to get back in. As long as you have the stomach to take some draw down while you wait.

  5. 1970confused

    The Yen de-valued almost 18% since the elections. Gold down almost as much 16% in the same time(6 weeks)can anyone explain what gold as to do with the Yen and why its so highly correlated?!

    1. Spanky

      It just is and has been very tightly correlated, at least directionally, with yen since the mid 1990s.

      It’s not a perfect day to day correlation, but I would say week to week, and definitely month to month, if yen is down, gold will be down.

      This is literally why the CBs control the price of everything. In the very very long run, the absolute quantity of currency created leads to higher commodity prices. But in the medium to short run (10-20 years) it seems that all that matters are currency flows, and the CBs more or less control the flow of currencies 100% by modulating interest rate differentials between the major currencies.

      The BoJ has as far as I am concerned created a freefall situation for the yen. At a minimum commodities will be flat and at worse they will go down. If you are speculating long, you are relying entirely on CB actions in the short to medium term.

    1. Markab

      Vin, Looks like you’ve already lost 2% in the span of a few minutes. This thing isn’t going to stop till gold gets back to $400. Right now you are just catching massive falling knives. Just buy the S&P.

      1. vin

        You are right about the loss. And, yes, it looks quite bad particularly when the treasury rates are rising. Yet, I am hopeful.

    2. Markab

      BTW, not criticizing. I lost about $10,000 on my gold and platinum acquisitions before selling all of it. And I was in steady acquisition mode since early 2005 (my first eight gold maple leaves were $422 each). My goal was for gold to get back to $1480, platinum to around $1600. Gary was so right on calling the earlier bottom in gold a year ago, I felt strongly about his calls that gold would at a minimum, get to the $1500-1550 level. It didn’t happen. Not blaming him as he is providing his insights on here for free, but I felt a simple 50% rise in gold was not anything compared to the 250% rise in the stock market. But when everyone in the world keeps buying US stocks and shuns every other asset, you are going to lose.

      1. vin

        Markab, First of all no offence taken. I am here to read people like you. I want to learn from those who know more and from their experience. Yet I will never hold them responsible for my actions or follow them blindly. I am with you about the uncertainty in gold. In addition please know that money is coming out of the market, a huge amount. A fraction of that is going into SM. But, not in gold because yields are going up. Yet, at this stage I am positive on both gold and golds, specially golds.

        Good luck trading and I hope you recover your money and them make some.

  6. Markab

    The fact that everyone on here is still “searching for a bottom” tells me we have a lot further to fall.

    1. Spanky

      The logical long term target is the 200 month moving average, which is just under $900 at the moment but rising. I think $gold needs a miracle in the short run to avoid heading down to that very long term moving average over the next year or so. It’s not even that far away at this point.

      I think the yen has a lot further to fall before the BoJ and Fed relent. Therefore, that $900 target makes even more sense to me.

      1. Markab

        $900 is only $200 away now…I think the true “undercut” low will be quite a bit lower. Then, and only then, if we get some real carnage in the world, like a bona fide trade war with China, then maybe gold can pare some of its losses.

        But like I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if the worst economic news would bolster the stock market anyhow. Really, no matter what the news is, the stock market is up. No matter how absurd median valuations are in the stock market, the trend is up. Now, the old adage of “buy the dip” isn’t even true…there is no dip to buy anymore. No correction (10%+) since 2011!!!!!

        1. Spanky

          yep, its crazy, but it really is pretty logical when you think about it. The Fed has expressly stated that QE was put in place to raise asset prices and create a wealth effect. Bernanke said this years back (2009 iirc). Couple that with the fact that we have banks that everyone knows are TBTF and are literally backstopped by the US govt since they were allowed to issue govt backed bonds back in ’08-’09.

          It’s the ultimate moral hazard the CBs have created, maybe in the history of the world. You cannot lose more that 10%, even if you are the worst market timer ever. And I personally doubt we will see a correction of 10% until we see something ludicrous like Dow 30 or 40,0000. Every spare dime of liquidity is being pumped into the markets, mostly through the carry trade. And the beauty with yen carry trade is that commodities at best will be flat (and more likely down) at the same time US stock are skyrocketing. Just liquidate whatever you have, and on every red day in the Dow, buy a 2% position until you get a 100% position and never look back or worry about it. Profits are guaranteed by the Fed and BoJ.

          1. Pedestrian

            I was just looking at JDST and noticed that it has formed a beautiful bowl pattern between the end of May this year and present. It suggests a catastrophic collapse of junior mining share prices is coming over the next month and a half. I may have to entirely rethink my idea that a bottom in gold is anywhere near in the next weeks, let alone days.

            On that basis I will get the hell out of this recent crappy NUGT trade I bought in spite of my belief the price collapse in gold cannot go on much longer. I now feel more certain based on a few charts I review that both gold and miners are heading into a big, black sucking hole and I am not prepared to lose another nickel holding on to false hopes.

            We have all been there right?

            Holding a trade that’s down but still believing it can’t go lower in spite of signals saying your trade was a big fat mistake? Well I am that guy for the last two days now and I don’t like it one little bit.

  7. TennisDave

    There’s the undercut (ie. downside breakout), now if it doesn’t go up it will go down, Great Info

  8. Markab

    Platinum is now down $50 on the day. Even Palladium which had been the lone bright spot amongst the PMs, is down $30. Both of these are more industrial and so it almost throws cold water on this idea that the USA is now at the cusp of some great economic renaissance.

    1. Pedestrian

      There is that platinum warning again. Someone here awhile back was saying that platinum was already telling us gold would crash. I think it was Duckwhorocks.

  9. Spanky

    Ok I am calling a bottom right here. lol. I actually still am 100% long my silver miners, hoping against hope for a miracle.

    To the moon!

    1. Spanky

      I have been hesitant to call a bottom since September, but I am 100% confident today is the bottom in the metal sector.

      Reason I am saying this is because I cannot think of a single reason to be long gold right now as a speculative investment (over a 100 year period I would always want to keep saving in gold). Not a single one. That has got to mean it is time to go long.

  10. vin

    WOW! I guess it is the interest rates. 10 years treasury yielding ~2.6%. Not long ago it was at 1.35%. …… Gold and golds will have trouble while the rates are going up. I am sure at some point this increase will have to stopped, one way or another. It ain’t showing up in mortgages yet. What will happen they come up for renewal?

    And, the yields seem to be upward bound. Yet, I am betting that this is an excellent opportunity to long on gold and golds, but specially gold.

    Good trading.

    1. Spanky

      I agree. time to go long. It’s just too too bearish and everyone is 1000% beholden to CBs power. There is literally no reason to own gold as a speculative investment at this moment–fundamental or technical–none, therefore it has to be a bottom.

      1. vin

        One does not need to read any zeros. You can see. Just watch the effect of interest rates if they are translated into individual borrowing. And, interest rates are bad for gold and golds. PERIOD.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    Utility stocks have reverted to 10dma as treasuries fell.
    Since Utilities got rejected by their 10dma, back up above 50ma and treasuries are all late in their daily cycles, it is a high chance that treasuries have bottomed.

  12. lokum_

    Investing in gold in 2016 is like investing in horses in 1916 – it is all passed due. Gold is done as money reserve for the economy. Even if the best gold bug scenario plays out, there WON’T AND CAN NOT be a safe and distributed system to gurantee gold as money. Precious metals are being replaced by cryptocurrencies. Thus being said all the gold swings and moves are purely speculative and one can only hope that big money will keep going in and out PM funds.

    1. vin

      I have always wondered about: “Gold is done as money reserve for the economy”. The only thing that stops me being sure is that there is no viable alternative as yet. CBs are a disaster in making, it is only a question of time. So, what money will be used when they lose control or even partially lose control. All currencies are more or less worthless,

      1. lokum_

        There is a solution and it is called blockchain. And today banks, or watever financial institutions replace them, actively develop private distributed ledgers that will give the collateral for all the debt they will accumulate. Once they do that and once they get rid of and ban cache, all the gold will be more or less dumped onto jewlery market. Gold was collateral for state armies and warfare throughout history. With robots and drones precious metals as money are on the slope to oblivion.

        1. vin

          Thanks loum_. Interesting indeed.

          Though I feel that keeping theoretical accounts without any concrete medium of exchange is only experimental and of-course those in power would love it to succeeded.

          Only future will tell whether it succeeds or not but note that the gold still lies with the powerful. They haven’t parted with it. I will bet you a coffee that VERY few gold bugs have gold in their possession. In fact I won’t be surprised that many staunch gold bugs on this forum have seen real gold, forget about owning it.

      1. Spanky

        First of all, I am sure you already know this now, but you are an idiot for trying to catch the bottom using a 3x ETF. That is literally insane. I say this with affection though. Never ever do that again, IMO, because you will be very very easy to shake out. Then there is that decal thing, so that even if you are right in the long run, a devastating down move might be impossible to recoup.

        There are literally no bulls left, other than people who own bullion and will never sell. The technical and fundamental reasons to own gold look terrible right now given the recent past and projecting that out into the future. There is no case you can make for gold based on the recent technicals and CB policy decisions–none as far as I am concerned. Literally every theory has been thrown out the window in the last 5 months.

        This is the ultimate contrarian play right now. And today the bearish case looks completely bulletproof. Therefore, today is the bottom, although the miners could bounce around and maybe go a bit lower even if gold doesn’t make a new low after today.

        1. Pedestrian

          Actually I was not trying to catch a bottom. I bought a couple days back (before the FOMC) because I thought we were going to get a bounce. And no, I am not an idiot. No different than you really because all of us got caught one way or another by this gold crash. Well, one difference actually. I was short since the gold top in July and made out just fine. It was an impulse to play on the long side for a change of pace but my technicals were wrong this time.

      1. Pedestrian

        A nickel! Is this stand-up time? You are a lot funnier than I first imagined Vin because JNUG was trading at 31.58 almost exactly 4 months ago to the day. So that nickel comment must be comedy! Pure comedy.

        1. vin

          Pedestrian, don’t forget that @11.44 it was selling @$4.24 and all you not so funny people were so sure of yourselves that gold is all done for.

          Why are you experts ALWAYS wrong?

          1. Pedestrian

            The split makes no difference on leveraged ETF’s because the chart is relative otherwise you could not read the chart. Post split the numbers are adjusted accordingly and the charts still read as any other ordinary chart might.

            And as an aside I was 100% correct that gold was toast and told all you guys many months ago but was rudely rebuffed by all the piss and vinegar most of you idiot bugs dish out anytime someone objects to your pathetic little gold narrative.

            You just refused to look at the facts. But they were posted here. Next time you might pay attention because a lot of money was made on the short side since back then.

  13. transit1

    I expect the dollar to correct when it reaches 104.50, bottoming at 97 or 96 about march 17. This cycle still has 13 months to run yet so it could still reach 112 by end of 2017.

  14. Goild


    The idiot thing, is what I tell myself while driving around alone.
    Sound trading advice as given by ras and look2525: do not try to pick up the bottom and stay above the averages.

    However, there is a reason, if one really catches the bottom then one can play old turkey and perhaps expect a 10 bagger. Those that wait may only get a 5 bagger.

    1. Spanky

      I am all for picking bottoms, but don’t do it using 3X leverage. especially on a vehicle that can gap down below your stop.

  15. jonsyl

    main logic here with gold is that it’s gone down so much it has to go up. well that could be said each week for the past dozen weeks. Sign of desperation, need some sign of a turn. When it comes then it will be more than a one day event with time to get in. Right now sounds like throwing darts hoping to hit the board let alone achieving a bulls eye.
    With vix showing signs of not wanting to go down much more with equity rally, looking at that as maybe a better bet with something like tvix for a fling. However any selloff I suspect will be short lived as the retail crowd will want to buy the first dip. Eventually disaster will hit the market when Trump cronies and republican old guard get into infighting soon after inauguration

    1. Spanky

      Agreed. But everyone knows this, so as a contrarian, I think we are going up from here because everyone expects a retest now.

      1. Dday

        That would be illogical to me, technicals together with cots say a lower low, but you could be right….Who knows right..

    1. Spanky

      You are wrong, IMO.

      Now don’t go buying your metals back in the next month or anything, but I think you made a big mistake selling your bullion. Gold is bottoming right here.

          1. Pedestrian

            Today by days end we probably hit 100 million shares of NUGT traded. A record possibly? Capitulation time Dday. Check that JDST chart I mentioned before though. It looks ominous where junior miners are concerned. Just plug in a 6 month view as it will suffice.

  16. pacoquin

    .. and now.. today.. if I go by SILVER.. or tomorrow… fri rolloverday… and hopefully gold as well… and also temporary Dollar Top… after tremendous corrections in metal… e might have a temporary bottom. I kept searching for this situation and levels .. regardless of what Gary Savage said. He has been completely lost in the past wks-months with 2 important items : Dollar and metals. Its a fact. We all learn from these sort of mistakes. Let me just say, imo, in metals will just live a good rebound, and in Dollar a good correction. Thks

  17. Goild

    The miners so far over did their fall.
    NUGT is at -15% while gold is at -1%.

    In other bad days is about 1:10.

  18. bginvestor

    Not that anyone cares.. but I’m all in cash except for a short in $NATGAS

    My charts suggests rates headed to test LONG term resistance, so not in bonds..

    My charts suggest that gold paper action breaking down from critical support, so not in miner’s..

    My charts suggest that SM market is peaking, with price action at HIGH standard deviations only seen at market tops or major corrections..

    So, I guess I’ll be in CASH.. Will be interesting to see where the next opportunity will turn up…

  19. Goild

    Being stubborn in the market is very expensive.
    Had I followed the path of least resistance with DUST… I would be much greener.
    Easy to say hard to do.

  20. Goild


    You are smart !

    Can you comment how you got your gift yesterday?
    How was your thought process and how you executed it?

    1. bginvestor

      Goild, right, careful what you ask for, u might just get it…

      I buy support/, sell resistance.. my support was the ~62 fib… that was the play..

    1. Goild

      Nice charts to remind us that things can turn around very well.
      The way I see it is that there is a lot of potential for going up.
      Consider the feeling to see it bouncing being out.

    1. ras

      Sorry to hear that. Optimism doe not mean getting carried away. Just keep positive outlook. Probably, nothing very significant until we hit 1050 region. After that, who knows?

  21. cdntrader

    Geez what a prediction..now Gary tells us that gold could hit 1045 or so..after swearing we were in a bull market and that timing doesnt matter..bulls correct all timing mistakes and so on. Bit by bit he will change his tune..once gold drops below 1100 then he will tell us that a double bottom will come but dont worry as it will move higher next year..then if we end up below 970 he will say..dont worry one more drop to 800-900 then the bull resumes..and on and on it goes.

    1. Markab

      Well to be fair, Gary over the last month has prefaced himself by saying “if gold is in a bull market, which I believe it is…” You could see the confidence dwindle during the fall. First $1500-1550…then $1400-1450…then “marginal new high above $1380…

      Wake me up when gold gets down to $600. Won’t be too long now.

      1. Markab

        And before you dismiss $600 gold, the dollar index RIGHT NOW is at the same level as 2003, back when gold was $400. So even $600 gold represents a 50% premium.

      2. Goldlion78

        Whatever….no gold miners in the world can’t produce at $600 all in cost. Wake me when you say something intelligent.

        1. Markab

          “No gold miners in the world can’t produce…” Speaking of intelligence…do yourself a favor and learn grammar.

          It doesn’t really matter if gold miners can’t make a profit at $600. Many will still produce anyhow because that is all they know. Don’t believe me? Think homebuilders circa 2007-2010. They were building and (trying to) sell houses below their cost since that was all they knew…eternal hope that the market was soon going to turn around and keep their most loyal employees and their families employed for another month. Until many burnt through their cash reserves or their bank loans got yanked. Then they went bankrupt. And I would argue that housing is fundamentally more important (e.g. shelter) than a piece of metal that has next to no use.

          Don’t feel badly though. I got suckered in too. But I decided to cut my losses and liquidate a $110K portfolio of physical metals that I had been adding to since 2005. At one point earlier this summer it was worth about $140K or a little more. But my stubbornness cost me a lot of money, as well as the eternal hope on this blog.

          1. Goldlion78

            haha! What a girl. I’m buying this. Too many idiots like you throwing in the towel. I don’t feel bad at all, BTW. My largest Jr. is up 14,000% for the year and holding fir..

  22. SLEP

    It looks like my forecast of a bottom in gold and silver on 12/14/16, plus or minus one day, may pan out. I’m a genius 😀 👍 . We should now get a respectable bounce to about the first week of January, and then a retest of the lows about the first week of February. After that, I will analyze my charts and cycles to see if we should go lower, or if this was the bottom and the secular bull market is still intact, in which case we would continue to go higher to new highs.

      1. Pedestrian

        1245 gold?

        There was a guy on this site pinching himself with happiness yesterday and bragging he bought back in at the right time because JNUG went up a whole god-damned nickel!!!! Ha ha. Made me laugh so hard I was dizzy and so I took some extra meds!

  23. cdntrader

    You know how many people have been telling us the bottom in gold is coming because of sentiment, because of fib lines, because of support levels, even because of the moon phase, and on and on. I have heard it from1300 all the way down to here so frankly I dont think anyone has a clue where the bottom is..lets just all be honest.
    When I look at the chart of gold over the past year..nobody would have predicted that..a ramp straight up to 1380 and then a total collpase in about a month at the end of the year..I mean come on who are we fooling. And so called Gurus like Gary are no better and often even worse in their predictions.
    I am waiting for him to tell us about the 4-7 day bloodbath phases and yada yada..and telling us that a double bottom will be a good thing..yada yada..
    Lets face it most financial gurus are charlatans and often dont even have any real training in finance..isnt Gary an ex weight lifter..

    1. Markab

      You are right on, Canadian. So many people are convinced a bottom is near. If you like charts, the technical damage done over the last year, but particularly over the last month, is alarming. Every so called “support” level has given way easily. And as my comment above stated, the USD index is now up to 2003 levels, when gold was at 400 USD. We potentially have a long ways to fall from here. What seems to be happening is that for a few days, gold will be relatively subdued, trading in a daily range of -7 to +7 and everybody breathes a sigh of relief. Then, once or twice a week, gold gets monkey hammered -25 to -35 USD. We might bounce around the 1045 lows from last year but I expect once it is breeched (and it will be), it will be a very hard fall from there.

      1. Pedestrian

        Well I said basically the same thing yesterday Mark and you got a bee in your bonnet and wrote me a pissed off post when I was merely making an observation that was already known by everybody.

  24. chrisG

    Xau also joining the HS camp. Projection is last yeara low. If so, given gold weakness, gold below 1000?

  25. chrisG

    Scorched hopes dashed again. Based on my reading, no scorched. Next week market continues to be ok.Also look at dax, recently broke out.

  26. Option Trader

    According to my charting research today, I see multiple indicators showing downside volume has exhausted and volume to the upside has been initiated. We should see at least a short term bounce coming real soon.

      1. jeffd5584

        IMO, that is the best way to play it at this juncture. The problem with always waiting for that reversal is that it’s just as easy to get trapped buying another spike high on the slope of hope down towards its ultimate lows. At this juncture, the symmetry of this downtrend looks almost like a mirror image of the uptrend…

        I also don’t know if I believe that there was a cycle low in there…By my count, the closest thing I found to a cycle projects a March low, but I’m sure one could find shorter cycles that produced some sort of bounce along this downtrend.

      1. Goild


        The chart appears to show that the bottom is around $1100.
        Take 4% inflation this year, and multiply the $1045 gold low by 1.04 and one gets $1087.
        Ball park about right.

        1. dboz

          Looks about right to me. Wanting to see a turn before that trend though like in 2008. I saw another interesting bullish take tonight. The guy used the dollar index vs gold ratio to take out the dollar as we are gold sellers here at the moment and gold has gone up more in other currencies. When you do that we are still above support so the bull is still possibly. Regardless, we can all agree this is a statistical freak from the beginning of the year. I hope to never be in the wringer like this stretch has put me through.

          1. Goild


            In thinking about it the following argument popped up. Which I think is one that there is reason to count on.
            You see, the market is relentless and is an extremist.
            Las December and January both gold and oil were beaten to the maximum possible. The gold to miners ratio reached an extreme. Clearly that is the bottom.
            It was $3.5 for NUGT times 1.04 for inflation or $3.64 today. Not very nice as we are currently at $5.91. One thing about this to have an idea of the worst case scenario. Hopefully it will now take off as there are some signs already. Another is to factor that oil is up, and so the middle way would be $4.77.

  27. chrisG

    Lol, poor Tulip must have lost a lot during this sell off. Lousy skills. If u have no skills and try picking bottom, u get shit. The skillful will be able to exit with minimal damage.

    Tulip must have many shit over his face. Great! Cos Shit is good for Tulip. It’s a natural fertilizer. Wahahaha

      1. Goild


        Thanks for getting back to me.
        However, please elaborate more. Say there is resistance, you are preparing a short, then at what point you actually short it?
        It seems to me that you are playing the breakout which I think is one of the most difficult moves to play…

      2. chrisG

        Yup, this is a wise saying, when u pick bottom, u get ass shit. This is to teach and warn those not so savvy not to anyhow pick bottom. Unless u know what u are doing. And u can’t do this pick bottom often .

        Yet stupid Tulip doesn’t get it, and opened his stupid mouth.

          1. Pedestrian

            We have quite a few women her I suspect. Like Alexandru’s ex-wife for example. Tulip is a lady in her early sixties if I am catching her writing style correctly.

    1. Pedestrian

      Kind of funny. He left and within a week of having a new blog started to block all the comments. Could not take the heat i guess. Maybe Avi threatened him with a lawsuit after his recent run-in and he caved to the pressure.

  28. Robert

    Everyone chill out! I am the biggest loser here and I am saying that we have bottomed temporarily. Only 20 bucks left to gold downside. We will bounce starting tomorrow maybe 2% in GDX. Gold is gonna bounce into January and then a retest of lows 1130. The retest will tell us if the true bottom is in. If it breaks 1100 then we will know that bear market will continue. This is my views

    1. Goild


      I loaded today more NUGT shares. I was thinking depending on how the day looks to double tomorrow. It might be a great opportunity to make good money. But one has to be very, very careful.
      Take a look at the comment I just posted to dboz for worst case scenario on NUGT.

    2. vin

      Robert, Previously I had shorted jnug and did very well when all the experts were sure that gold had bottomed. I have been negative on gold/golds for last few weeks and did well. Later on I did buy jnug. To-day I bought jnug at $4,65. I hope to do well.

      Yes, I feel that nugt and jnug are an excellent bets at this point.

      Though I disagree with your statement “Everyone chill out! I am the biggest loser here…” Based on what I read here I wouldn’t bet my shirt on that statement. There are some heavy weights here. Interestingly they are all negative on gold right now.

    3. Pedestrian

      Yes GMoney. I am already in from the day before the FOMC but down a fair chunk of change and thinking of adding more to smooth the loss with intention to take whatever gain the market offers in the next short while. I was planning on selling yesterday but it just bothered me so much I could not bring myself to do it after seeing gold get smashed so badly. I figure some kind of bounce is in the cards, however brief it may be.

  29. zkotpen


    I was not asking if those dates were IC & DC highs/lows yesterday.

    The dates I posted were those inflection points, plain and simple.

    Ignore them at your peril!

  30. Steffmeister

    The little bird is just an awesome analyst 🙂

    December 13, 2016 at 2:27 am

    Is a SMACK in Gold imminent ?

    sold my JNUG last week with a 15% profit … a little bird whispered in my ear that gold is going down, short term

      1. Steffmeister

        this is not theduckwhoworks, he was wrong about gold! Called the fat lady singing way too early …

  31. Steffmeister

    This is a RETEST of 2015 low, if we manage to set a higher low (1045) we are in good shape and so far so good imo !

    GDXJ-SILJ-SLV-HUI looking good if, and that is one big IF we turnaround about here, happy trading !

    remember Seasonality we are in termination mode for precoius metals, it will soon (today/Monday) be over.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes, I would agree. Junior miners are going to see a price collapse before this is over. Don’t overstay your welcome if trying to play any bounces.

      1. Pedestrian

        More specifically, I think we are going to get a stock market correction and what little life remains in miners will be snuffed out in the ensuing decline. No idea what kind of correction is coming or how deep but it appears to be in the cards for early in the New Year.

  32. Arthur

    Chat between 2 gold traders, 2011-03-21

    Deutsche Bank : “bro japan holiday today”
    Deutsche Bank : “think it’ll be quiet”
    Deutsche Bank : “well, illiquid, not quiet haha”
    Deutsche Bank : “illiquid means wild wild west”
    UBS : “okay when gold pops 1430”
    UBS : “we whack it”
    UBS : “u sell your 50k”
    UBS : “i sell my 20k”
    UBS : “then we double that up and produce our on liquidity too”
    UBS : “that should be enough to cap it on a holiday”
    Deutsche Bank : “haha yeah”
    Deutsche Bank : “lol”


    Silver market Feb 3 2009

    Millennium partners [Trader A] : “honest opinion – is hsbc brutal in metals ? …”
    Deutsche Bank [Trader C] : “they front run whatever they can in spot and take no prisoners …”


    1. Arthur

      Silver market, June 8, 2011

      UBS [Trader A]: and if u have stops….
      UBS [Trader A]: oh boy
      Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: HAHA
      Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: who ya gonna call!
      Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: STOP BUSTERS
      Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: deh deh deh deh dehdehdeh deh deh deh deh dehdehdeh
      Deutsche Bank [Trader B]: haha

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