NUGT and XAU
We’ve had capitulation level volume these past two days. Now we need to see an up day on huge volume as the sign of a possible bottom.
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NUGT and XAU
We’ve had capitulation level volume these past two days. Now we need to see an up day on huge volume as the sign of a possible bottom.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
Good morning.
Good trading to all today!
Gary,
You have been blindsided with your underlying assumption that gold is in bull market…..well, it worked until summer but you forgot change the horse when market trading was signalling underlying weakness. You wanted to blame of CB’s, election and what not…but market has been weak.
The only time I will change my stance on gold is when there is a successful retest of the recent low….in your parlance DCL has to be above the recent low….and no way I am going to go long with the new higher high in XAU …but instead new higher low.
Gold is already giving up its paltry “gains” from the overnight session. And Palladium, the lone star of PMs this year, has tanked 10% in the last week. Kinda funny since a very large percentage of Palladium mined is from Russia, and tensions this morning between them and the USA have ratcheted up again.
Today gold will trade in that infamous +7 to -7 USD range, leading all the hopeful bulls to think the worst is over and a bottom has been found. Then, as usual, we will get at least two days next week where gold drops -25 to -35 USD per day. This has been the pattern verbatim the last five months.
The “baby bull” is dead. Why can’t we just admit that and move on?
” The “baby bull” is dead. Why can’t we just admit that and move on?”
Is Gary trying to sell more hope & subscriptions?
I said long time ago when gold trading on election night signalled the underlying market weakness…that was one hell of a candle and anyone who ignores it would be sorry.
Hmm lets see, togs decision, buy more or take advice from an internet shill with no charts, no proof of trading experience nothing…decisions decisions.
Hey Bill, I was right about gold!! 🙂 You said I was a troll and would have egg all over my face. You look like a damned fool now. Good thing I didn’t listen t your blather. And by the way, its you who has the two LL’s in your name!
You seem like a dumbbell….is your gold portfolio up or down in the last 5 years or in the last 3 months?
If you still own gold, I recommend that you sell and sell pronto…because its going to be sub-1000 in January!
The “baby bull” was NOT in gold but in miners and it was an hell of a baby bull .
Gold NEVER experienced a “baby bull” .
Dude,
Baby bull was a stroke of luck…..a bear market rally. Anyone who bought triple leveraged funds will tell you the volatility of these securities is not right for a portfolio but for a trader…..if you are using it to build your “portfolio” you are as toxic and risky as these securities.
Exactly what I have been saying. This is nothing more than a bear market rally. But the bugs will not believe it until we actually retest the bottom at 1040 or fall below. Its just unbelievable to me how stubborn they are. I mean, how much pain is too much for some of those ding dongs before they learn the message that is written on the wall?
Markab: Maybe – maybe not. You know the future ? Are you god ? No trend is forever.
Yes I agree baby bull is dead but the bigger question to ask is will they kill the golden goose? There is only so far down the price can go and be sustained there.
Yen not moving; miner’s not moving…
And with the housing numbers just released coming in well below expectations, gold should have rallied strongly…and didn’t. Not a good sign for hopeful bulls.
Housing! With 10years treasuring yields almost double and climbing, you ain’t seen no nothing ‘et. And, that is why I wonder. How can bond yields be allowed to increase in a debt ridden economy? They are now caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Golds should do well over the next little while.
And, other debts! Fed alone @20T. 1% increase means $200B interest increase, and climbing. No way They will have to intervene.
Pms are trying for a bounce. For now, the action looks weak. It could be premature to talk about a low. Another smack down after the bounce? The jury is out on this one?
Golds lost most of the overnight gains at the opening as the bond yield climbed. Now the yield has started to ease and the golds have started to creep up. Gold will have to wait for the interest rate advances to stop or slow down significantly. I can’t see how bond rates can really keep on climbing in a debt ridden world.
I have noticed that experts have become positive on golds (vs scared a few days ago) and that is something to worry about. Yet I am positive on gold, for the time being. Hopefully next week will make gold shine. I want to make money on the jnug I bought @4.65.
Actually the majority of rate hiking cycles have been good for gold.
Gary, it all depends. One should be careful while extrapolating the past into the future.
If interest rates increase in response to price inflation then the gold price will respond to inflation (the main cause) and not the rates which are a consequence and the cause.
Present bond rate increase is a different ball game. There is hardly any price inflation. They are being forced to increase the short term rates to counter uncontrollable asset bubble including housing in some areas. Look at arts, the SM. Look at the margin debt!
When the inflation translates into price inflation golds will do well irrespective of interest rates. Until that time gold may be a store of value, it is not a speculative investment. Some would still buy gold if it does not cost anything i.e. not much interest loss.
“and the cause.” should be “and NOT the cause.”
http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2016/12/Gold_interest_rates_2017.jpg?x64374
Really
First of all it is NOT related to fed fund rates, it is related to 10 year yields. Furthermore understand that during price inflation rates are secondary, inflation is what drives the gold price. At, present the price inflation quite low, so gold price is not driven by inflation. Under such conditions it becomes expensive to hold gold when the significant interest income can be earned.
That is what I said before also, please my post.
btw, in 2007 fund rates were increased in response to the fear that all the money injection was very inflationary. And, for whatever reason the inflation was halted and brought down. Did the rate increase actually help or something else brought the inflation down we will never know:
http://21stcenturybuilder.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/inflation-ratesUS.jpg.png
It was the same price inflation fear that boosted the price of the gold. Once the fear of inflation was gone then the interest rates became the deciding factor in deciding the gold price.
Why really worry about theories. Either I am right or I am wrong. Just watch and see how the interest rates affect the price of gold under PRESENT conditions.
Certainly, if price inflation creeps up then inflation will be the major factor influencing the price of gold. Until then it will be decided by the 10 year bond yields.
I am NOT a guru. If I am proven wrong then I will correct myself. But, please do read my post before you respond.
Building positions in JO.. ($COFFEE)
Gary, that strong day should be Monday in BOJ’s statement aftermath – catalyst for USDJPY going South.
alex, your prediction of dollar slide over past number of weeks just not there. It’s stairstepping its way higher and absolutely no evidence except wishful thinking of reversal to downside. The world right now wants US assets, and until we see at least a lower low (dxy) in dollar, there is no point to yviour conjecture. The negative correlation to gold will continue, at some point this may not matter as in the past when gold and dollar have gone up or down in tandum but no evidence of that. Equities may have a pullback in here and looking to buy tvix for a flip as vix shows some sign of nervousness. This will be temporary as retail will buy the first setback having missed out this rally.
The last time the YUAN was devalued this much we had a 10% market slide. This time, nothing? Not even a flinch. The YUAN is pushing 7.00 now. Grandma raised rates to provoke the Chinese to devalue? Is she asking the Chinese to crash the markets and the dollar? All I know is that if this dollar does not cool off in this environment it is going to be financial hell very soon. No one seems concerned at all though? Thoughts anyone? It seems all news is bad news for gold, even if it should be good news?
Mr scorched is here. I can tell you, no scotch today. Dow is going to test 20000. Then small correction. Then year end rally. It is January action that will be telling
Corporate earnings coming quarter will be telling, with regards to the USD strength. Let’s observe market reaction
It is pretty remarkable. Gold has given up all its paltry overnight gains. Stock market is higher. Pretty much the same trend. Even with abysmal housing numbers which should have reversed recent trends, it did nothing. Gold is incredibly weak…seems like we will slice right through last years lows with ease. I am dubious that they will be able to significantly raise rates over the next year, maybe by 1/4-1/2 percent, and I do think there will eventually be a realization that the rot underlying the economy is very severe. Either way, the stock market goes up since interest rate rises will look increasingly subdued, or if they do keep raising, people will think the economy is improving–again beneficial for stocks. On the other hand, if my thesis is correct that interest rate rises will be more subdued than people are now thinking, gold may bounce…but from a much lower level than current prices.
If you look at the weekly $gold:$xjy ratio chart you will see that the ratio has been consolidating in a range for a few years now. You will also notice that this entire year has been forming a pennant. The bottom line is within the next year, $gold is either going to break down vs yen or break up. A break down after such a long consolidation would probably mean the bear is back in full steam. But I’ll bet it breaks upwards, and powerfully so.
Excellent catch! Thanks Spanky. That is a really helpful chart and not one I have been using before.
Check out this chart from Kimble.
https://www.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/swiss-franc-us-dollar-topping-pattern-dec-15.jpg
agreed with earlier comment that this dollar strength will eventually bring havoc. Beyond submerging the emerging markets more than has already happened, it will kill US exports while at same time Trump will threaten/institute trade wars further aggravating growth. Main positve element for stocks is tax cut, will benefit corporate bottom line for stock value, but do nothing to increase production and growth.
Guys, tax cuts produce tremendous economic activity. Maybe that will over ride the currency headwinds??
Nothing to see here. No chance of escalation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-16/china-seizes-unmanned-underwater-us-navy-vehicle-south-china-sea
BLACK SWAN is flying.
It would be interesting to know what Gary thinks about this fundamental analysis.
It makes sense to me,unfortunately.
http://tsi-blog.com/2016/12/how-the-fundamental-backdrop-could-turn-bullish-for-gold/
Guys, patience, please.
Positive correlation btw USD and Stocks is very strong, above +0.8
Something is wrong with the miners, they are lagging.
Hopefully they will catch.
tax cuts do little for economic growth unless spent on increased production. Companies will simply pocket the benefit if demand isn’t there. Good for short term stock gains as we’ve witnessed but not growth. If I got a tax cut from 35 to 15 percent, my income would go up, but it would add nothing to my productive output
Gold going up big why miners not following? Shake my head. Gary this is looking like yesterday was the YCL, DCL, ICL
The miner don’t have to lead. They certainly did not back in December 2015.
Nailed the bottom yesterday. Time to go long and never look back. 🙂
Thanks Spanky. You are one of the few here who make sense to me. Most of them I use as contrarian indicators. I wish I could buy you a beer or cappuccino.
Transports and Consumer Discrationaries in CONFIRMED DAILY CYCLE DECLINE! 😉
Utilities buoy charging to penetrate their 200dma.
If this does not smell like Scorch…
Lowered my purchased price on the two NUGT lots to $5.5.
Good trading to all.
“you know, it is a bull market”
Yesterday was bottom as I said! Buy gold and miners now fools!
Though, I am mad at me as I was fully loaded with shares at $5.7, and sold too early at $5.85.
Yes, need to be patient…
Sold my $GDX call options here for a nice profit. good luck!
Maybe am one of those fools. I sold on fed day. And actually quite happy and peaceful even with this rally. I can imagine, if i am still long, this bounce will get me so excited, then maybe once again crush me again.
I prefer staying away for a while. If bull resumes, I will know. And I don’t mind buying some higher. Many are making HS top.
Oh first level is a close above 1170. Below there, no need to look
The miners may end up with a small Doji today, the usual pausing. The acid test might be on Monday.
Look at platinum. Quite a move.
Careful Spanky. That plat move is very negative by my charts. You should sell it today, not buy.
Guys, I ask myself what is the easiest market. I think buying oil stocks still the least stressful. And also steel. So NE, ESV etc
There will be no easy markets. That much I guarantee.
SWING LOW IN MINERS!
USDJPY going to hell on Monday through Wednesday should be metals on the surge and stocks on a stronger touch of Scorch.
also swing lows in T-bills and T-notes while Utility stocks thrust.
We really do need a swing low on $gold to confirm this. There is a BoJ announcement on Monday? Should be fun.
NO news will make great news on Monday 😉
For now, selling rallies is the way to go?
RAS, yes indeed: EUR will make a great champion for shorting in JAN, when The Scorch is about to end.
EUR found its ICL yesterday in 1.03 turf, on day 15 of the last daily cycle and month 13 of its YC.
Yet something tells me we have yet to see EUR’s YCL 🙂
EUR to grow now in a new Intermediary Cycle which will be left-translated.
Ras,
That might be goof way to go, though one needs to be savvy as not to be left behind.
I am going to play old turkey and hold my two lots for a long time, unless the market threatens them.
Will assist with day trading and try to add more lots.
The scenario is challenging. But certainty pleasant and exciting.
I wonder if you can comment on what securities to consider for investing conservatively for the next few years?
Hi, Goild. Sorry, no advice, just pointers. Trading is a high probability game. Nobody gets it right all the time. Sometimes trades do not pan out. It is important to exit trades not working promptly and keep losses to a minimum. My horizon is short term ( one day at a time and one week at a time), unless we have a strongly trending market, in which case I buy and hold, if trend is up. If trend is down, I might try inverse etfs after making sure it is not a sucker decline to trap bears.
GLD is at 108, not a very strong support. Even if gld bounces 4 bucks to 112, the daily trend is still down. If gld bounces 8 bucks, we have to sit up and take notice of a probable change of trend. If that does not happen, we could get the final smack down after a tepid bounce. I might try a small position in dust if that happens to be the case. But be aware that dust is highly volatile, it could swing 10 bucks in an hour. Not suitable for everyone because of risk. Another option is to step aside and wait until the coast is clear.
SM is probably doing a local top. Market is a simple animal, very slow except at extremes. Enter a trade when you see a great set up in harmony with your method and personality. Exit a trade promptly, if not working. Never follow anybody blindly. Trade only what you see, not what you and any expert thinks. All the best.
… EUR to find its YCL in March (month 15) while USD finds its YCH (month 10).
FOMC on March 15 should bring another hike and catalyze the YCH in USD.
“Swing low in miners”
Oh folks, I’m skaking my head what you are telling.
Gold goes up 10 points and we have the swing low – such a nonsense !
Look at the U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield, then you know why gold is up incredible 10 points.
Maybe we have the swing low – maybe not – we have to wait and hope.
Gary
Looking back on volume over past 10 years in GDX it is unbelievable to see how it has escilated 10 fold, while price has not been impacted to the same degree.
http://za.investing.com/etfs/market-vectors-gold-miners-chart
Are there some opinions on this? I find it also interesting that my volume does not show the same as yours?
Ooops sorry made a mistake on volume
Going SHORT USDJPY is gonna bring me some good money! USDJPY is close to its swing high right on the brim of the no-news BOJ announcement to propel JPY in a strong bear rally.
I think you are right.
Gary, finally, since the 1375 July top, when u were calling several times, a YCL, and after a “normal” ???correction of almost 20% or 76% Fibo.. I agree. A YLC of 2016.. maybe.. at least, I bought both, Silver and Gold.. yesterday. But remember this : Not the YCL of 2017. If the Dollar, as I think, keeps scalating (with higher interest) towards Euro parity or near Dollar 118 – Euro 0,87-0,85 aprx, forget Metals, unless u play shorts, as I plan to do with Gold, if now rebouds towards 1250 or so. Good luck
Good call on NUGT volume Gary. Glad to see you picked up on that.
He already said that 3 times in the last 3 months and the 3x leveraged fund volume has been increasing as gold is going down!
Yeah, volume is great. But, price is the ultimate determinant. Time will tell.
Well guys, my mind changes as the market…
In view of the small Doji/volume today and the uncertainty on Monday I dropped my two lots.
Have a nice weekend.
Too early to panic. I would have given it a few more days. It takes a few days for a rickety bounce to sprout.
Gold and miners did not finish like I expected. Still very weak. Gary, I am hearing alot of talk that gold might just totally waterfall down here to like $900. I also see a huge GLD put buyer today. Is this possible? I cannot believe not even a 50 buck bounce from here. This must be the first time in history gold just collapses like this without any bounce. Please give your thought Gary!
Also, just about every “Gold Analyst” I read is preaching sub $1000 Gold. Same thing happened last year at this time and sub $1000 never happened.
Robert,
I think we’re pretty close. Maybe another day or two.
Be patient. Bounces don’t happen immediately. The sometimes take a few days to materialize.
Absolutely.
Gary,
Does the cycles theory even matter? Seems like the entire sector is at the mercy of a few bullion banks who can steer the market in the direction they want. With all that blatant manipulation of Gold and Silver, why do investors even touch this sector?
Cycles have become so stretched lately that I’m probably going to have to move that tool back to number 2 or three instead of my main tool.
Sentiment may have to be the go to tool from here on out. Sentiment is extremely bearish. Seems like everyone is convinced gold is going under $1000.
Agreed.
Gary,
please be more specific.. are you talking about the gold bullish index or other quantitative tool? thx.
Market does not run on democratic principles. Majority does not mean a thing. Sentiment could be helpful, but unreliable like the weekly stochastics, which could just keep running at a low level.. Just watch price action. No magnifying lens is needed. What jumps at us? Picayune bounces and huge declines. Also, nano up times and mega down times. These are the characteristics of a strong down trend in place. We need to let the market telegraph to us the change in its trend through appropriate price activity. Until then, what anyone says is just opinion based on surmise.
it is unlikely that pms will turn around all of a sudden and power up after a punishing decline like this without some backing and filling. Likely, this could take weeks, if not sooner. There may or may not be a final flush down. Take a look at 1974 SM bottom. Sentiment can stay depressed as price appears to sink into a seemingly bottomless abyss, especially if one happens to be on the wrong side of price. Cheers.
My drop decision was based on:
1) Sentiment
2) I am anticipating that Monday may see first a low and then I might jump in again. I think people are in a wait and see situation, so I do not expect a gap up unless the market makers set it.
3) The way NUGT lagged Gold just before the rally was a bit too much for my taste. That made me miss most of the rally.
4) The big drop followed by the DOJI
Thanks for commenting.
IMHO bounce in NUGT is not done yet. It might look like eternity if one is anxious.
Bulls are in deep shit. Cot barely improved during this week carnage. Silver is even worst!!! A lot of junior minors example EXK have to play catch up to the downside
As per which is the bottom?
The best answer is to realized that the market is an extremist and last time it really beat gold and oil, that is likely the bottom.
So taking a 4% inflation factor the worst case scenario for NUGT is $3.65. The next level is about $4.77 taking into consideration that oil is off. dboz had drawn some trend lines that suggest $1100 for gold which is also what Robert calls for. Hardly one can believe gold to $900.
One may wonder why doing some estimates? I had estimated that worst case for an undercut for NUGT was $5.8, I used this and the high % drop to have the confidence yesterday to put all my account with NUGT shares at $5.55. It is when you know something else that you have the confidence to pull the trigger.
There’s unlikely to be scorched. Index is taking turns to lead. NDX is holding above breakout. It will take over, and likely going to be due to Apple.
SM makes all kinds of deceptive moves when it is in the process of doing a trend change. There may not be any imminent problem. But, who knows what will begin to happen in a few weeks.
Well,
Last consideration, the candles for USD suggest a pull to the averages.
OK to give it a try. Thanks.
Got back my two lots.
This brings the subject of discipline vs. actively managing the position.
It is not easy either.
Wrong, USD going to $105 next week
ChrisG,
It might be so.
I noticed that in the last four Mondays USD has a red candle.
If there is any correlation between Yen and Gold, then it is reassuring Alex is thinking of shorting USD/JPY.
Ahh the famous sentiment indicators..everybody throws this word around but its very hard measuring sentiment. What does very bearish sentiment really mean? Which sentiment indicators work..Gary is always throwing aruond SentimentTraders images but there they often contradict..depending on whether you look at GLD, gold, gold optix, GDX and on and on. Nobody really knows what maximum pessimism is..many people think we get there and then we continue down and vice versa.
The bottom line is nobody really knows and especially so called gurus like Gary..I am done with listening to any of these people anymore..it has gotten me essentially nowhere. Time to invent my system and follow only my system.
cdntrader,
The fun of a trader is to be creative, is to be an independent thinker.
This site brings insights, company to the lonely trader, and by writing thoughts here one gives
sanity checks.
The wealth of info that circulates here helps one grow. There are very seasoned traders here.
I enjoy reading comments by many. Getting insight into say the trading mind of Alex is great, listening to Ras mature comments adds comfort. It is a little great trading community.
You can even glean some of the struggles some have.
I would say it is a very valuable site.
That’s why I was asking Gary to elaborate.. need timing..
Interesting, in looking at the SM reversal on election day, one can conclude that the SM new
Trump was going to win.
Again this is the point of view of an all technical swing trader that does not trust the market.
From Gary’s post and commentaries.. it seems obvious to me, Gary is a even tempered and cool individual. No doubt.
He, as most of us, work his system, and make his winnings.
Just one point on what it seems to me that Gary chooses to predict on.
It seems he looks at picking bottoms and tops. I could be wrong on this as I have only followed his post since GLD has been falling.
No fault. It is a wild game.
But I would like to make a point to the this type of trading system whether is be his or not.
Human nature has us all looking for “Bargains” in life. We do it every day.
Unfortunately, I believe this does not translate well for most of us in the stock market.
We look for the down and out, the one that has fallen and must now be a deal.
Lets “catch it at the bottom and ride it up.
Usually though, the Bottom we have determined. Seldom is.
And shit it sure is hard to leave that prudent Stop we had in place….. Hell we are down $500…. off our unshakeable bottom…. Ah take the stop out…. don’t want to lose $30/$500, at this point. It will come back. Then $30/500 turns into $6000 or 30k or $150k, the latter happening to me in the past ….one stinking tick at a time, exhausting us with it’s periodic hopeful bounce’s that are never quite enough.
Patients is not most peoples virtue when it comes to the ups and downs in the market. So even when you do have fundamental long term intentions the roller coaster makes you sell before that stock ever hits the moon.
Shit you just want out of the tramatization.
That’s why playing Down and Out Bargain Stocks or trying to pick tops is generally a bad idea.
To be sure, this type of trading…… is as winning as any other system with tight stops.
The Problem is…..There is far too much negative emotion, even with tight stops, before the positive.
Predicting ups and experiencing down’s does something to your psyche.
For me Everything is about channels… Up…Down or Across on any and all time charts. Trade in the Direction of the Channel.
Choose your Time Chart… Trade your Channel. Use the EMA’s, RSI(2), & Candles highs and lows as inflection points as to when to buy and sell. Tight Stops at inflection points when purchased.
Example… I use a 2 to 5 cent stop on a 50k play on a liquid stock, say like AG, and then ride that stock for the day. Hitting it again and again if need be until I am under it.
AS we, that have traded for a while know…there are an infinite # of ways to win off the market, but you can never fit 100 worms in a 99 can jar. So expect to lose. But don’t adjust your system once established. Don’t even tweak the damn thing… because it eventually just become another system.. which well again exhaust you as you metamorphosis it again and again.
It is all about YOUR SYSTEM, not other peoples predictions.
It is about YOUR SYSTEM and your ability to have the discipline not to waiver from it.
Cause in the end your system is as good as anyone else’s. Period.
And if your going to win/lose. It should be on your terms.
You just have to stick with the same moves each and every day.
Even if your system is as simple as trading Red/Green Daily Candle odds.
Keep your system simple. And stick with it.
Hope there is something here that helps someone.
All the Best!
oh lastly…. should you not wish to develpe your own system.
Follow Gary, but follow him to a tee.
Look2525,
Thanks for taking the time to share,
Your channel approach is quite interesting. I have not thought about it.
I agree, trading is a very personal thing because each one has a different mental structure and circumstances.
I see you use a very tight stop 2 to 5 cent?
I take it then that you fill the account with lots of small/medium profits? Like scalping?
I am running a hybrid approach that seems to be working for me.
Some money for playing old turkey and some money for day trading.
The beauty of picking a bottom is that you are for a while in automatic gains.
While day trading you have to work hard for the money and has many, many pitfalls.
I think the big money is made playing old turkey.
Pleasure is mine. Actually, I do not scalp. I let the whole day play through after 11am. What ever I happen to be in. If I get taped out. Thats Ok. I repeat 2 to 3 times up to 11am or so.
Actually Goild I think the percentage of winnings it bigger.
As once I get under an up chart I have not gone through the Tramatization of down type charts and I am more willing to let the play…. play out longer.
I let it play until there is a break of the previous days low or previous weekly low, depending on the strength of the chart.
Look2525,
Because of your earlier comment on being about the averages, then you mainly play long in
your channel system?
One more question Look2525,
How many times do you hit say AG in a day?
Good posts.
This is a good read to help the psychology many of us are dealing with right now. The huge downturn this week was not expected by many. Bravo to those that got it right.
I have to keep emotions in check and realize the longer term outlook instead of chasing instant success. I bought on dips the weeks heading into the elections expecting a Trump victory. It’s tough to get the call right but the outcome goes against you. I just have to wait it out and hope we don’t get to the 400-700 range many here call for as that carnage will surely bankrupt many miners.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4031081-radical-gold-underinvestment-bullish-2017
dboz, sorry to hear that,….what did you buy?
Many miners. AG, BTG, HL, GPL, EXK etc.
I bought shares early in the year so those gains have helped minimize my losses but deep 5 figure beat down right now. I did not see this tanking instantly on election night and cascading straight down. I got trapped. It was not that bad until Wed Thurs. those days crushed me.
I am not a trader. This is an investment, so my horizon was several years. If this sector collapses it will be a long wait. With the macro, I am truly shocked there is zero interest in the metals right now.
Americanbulls:
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=es&Ticker=IAU
I like that as a guide. But only as a very ancillary guide. For Candle stick pattern probability. Which is not high.
Also…If you see how they calculate there wins and loss percentage.
Not square.
On a buy for example they only CONFIRM their BUY rating at days end.
But they calculate there BUY price at a point earlier in the day before they
actually confirmed it. So not up and up.
Look2525,
Thanks again for elaborating.
It shows you must be very patient!
I am working on letting the profit run, I am leaving a lot of money on the table.
Thanks for responding…..I am sure you have a sound system.
For me… I use to leave alot on the table. But no more on longs over night.
I lost 900k in the two years or so. Of course I am a real stupid wild ass cowboy at heart.
I would have a million on the table, playing down stocks, and wake up the next day 40k down.
Then the old…. hope it comes back, only to be down another 20k the next day.
Oh that was depressing. I hate Potash. I lost 130 on that alone.
Don’t remember the other culprits, all down charts to start… too long ago.
What a ride… I went through the arab spring, the GDamn tusami, the Greeks and portugause.
So….. I don’t trust the market overnight with bigger money. Unless it is a short on larger cap stock in a down channel. Under the weekly ema(9)
I feel the possibility of a larger cap channeling down only to skyrocket up over night is less likely. Then some new catastrophe that sinks the market.
Maybe the odds are even.
It’s back to psyche again.
I don’t want to go to bed thinking about it. That reason alone is enough for me.
That’s how I work.
Look2525,
Thanks again for sharing.
Best wishes for you to recover.
We all have to paid stiff fees to later make money.
Good night.
Nobody seems to be talking about how artificial this fall in gold prices is. Anyone who says gold and silver prices are not manipulated is a fool !
This fall is a bankster scam with the assistance of corrupt Indian and Chinese government officials. The idea is to tie the hands of the Indian and Chinese buyers so they can’t actually buy any gold however much they try.
http://blog.gainesvillecoins.com/2016/12/14/indian-bank-cracks-down-on-gold-dealers/
Cash is the oil or the juice that allows them to get small quantities of gold. There are hundreds of millions of them and if they can get gold that amounts to serious tonnage. Make sure cash out of ATM machines in unavailable. A big measure was to freeze the bank accounts of India’s 50 biggest physical gold dealers.
“The move has brought bullion trading to a standstill, with jewellers fearing attention from government agencies if they make large purchases, said Harshad Ajmera, the proprietor of JJ Gold House, a wholesaler in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata.”
http://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/retail/india-s-top-gold-import-bank-suspends-bullion-dealers-accounts-1.1943898
In China using corrupt officialdom, make sure citizens can not buy gold in readiness for the Chinese New Year.
All I can say is “Go figure!”
These measures will not last and the banksters know it. But that will be when they cover their short positions and go long. The dam will burst. We have to watch for the signs in proactive way such as watching the COT reports carefully for signs of change before they happen, bearing in mind the information is always delayed.
Further to the above, my strategy is using options. I have both puts and calls in GDX. The spreads are pretty good, usually just one point. I have GDX Jan 19 Puts and GDX March 21.50 Calls. I am ready now to roll over the Puts. In 6 weeks or so I will rollover the calls. If HUI goes to 135-145, which is my target area, I will be buying June Calls by the bag full. It is a strategy that costs money, but holding stocks and watching them bleed to death is worse. You buy the calls on severe down days and the puts on up days.
So name a market which isn’t manipulated in some way….making money is all that matters…… The fool will loose money looking for reasons to justify their losses, while the successful trader will move between markets ignoring justifications for their investments.
COT reports from Dec 13 and are released on Friday Dec 16. They do not include the Fomc drubbing and the day after. Wait until next Fridays COT report …. by then bullion banks will already have their shares .
Just got off the phone with one of my most reliable sources. Next week the Gold market explodes higher. Maybe not on Monday…..but it will happen. Don’t say I didn’t warn you. There will be Bear carcasses everywhere you look. 🙂
SPAM!!!!!
You have been warned
More SPAM!!!
Where has Alex been? He’s been on a Laing streak which is highly unlike him.
Not as bad as Gary though.
looks like we have bottomed guys. we are going to around 1500-1600 then back down to1300ish then up to 2000 or a little more in about 18 months. after that we will assess. you have been told
ALEX, GARY am I looking at this divergence technical right for a major reverse?
Are we seeing a SCORCH COMING in the dollar with this technicals?
It seems USDEUR doing the same technicals as USD! Will this be the bounce for the gold, Comments?
Dollar weekly divergence of RSI and MACD as you will see in block
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FFrQLkKX/
Dollar daily divergence of RSI and MACD
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FYwaKjeG/
From a Technical Swing Traders Point of View.
“SA” Seabridge Gold….. What a Perfect Daily/Weekly Channel Play!
Just Look at SA’s Weekly and Daily Charts.
Price is in the Bottom of the Channel on Daily and Weekly Charts.
I don’t usually Trade down charts which SA is. But this is a Gld forum.
Generally there is not a good probability in determining bottoms on a down chart to get into investment mode without getting *See Sawed*. No See Saw for my Psyche. thx
But SA is, in a perfect place for UP swing.
Especially given the very high technical probability that GLD will
close higher than its close of this week.
Monday, I will implement my *Inter-Day Tight Stop System* to continue to try and get under the Price.
Should I not get *Tapped Out* after my 2nd or so try. I will leave some on the table at days end with a stop at Mondays low, then at Tuesdays Low. Then see how things align.
Not sure why the volume in NUGT matters….it could just mean that a lot of day traders were day trading it since, after all, it was moving during the day. I just think a lot of small fish are playing with NUGT during the day and the big fish are accumulating other positions in better vehicles.