58 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY – Gold & Silver Index

  1. zkotpen

    I believe the YCL in gold/miners needs to scare the B-Jesus out of the bulls, such that they swear never to buy gold again; while simultaneously filling the bears with self-confidence to make them sing “gold 1000!” at the top of their voice…

    … I’m not sure the market is at those emotional extremes yet…

    1. Gary Post author

      The 20 day moving average of sentiment in GLD has dropped to 22% as of yesterday. That’s the same level as the bottom last Dec.

  2. ras

    This could be a useful exercise for folks with predominant focus on pms. Run relativr strength charts: xle:gdx, xme:gdx, fas:gdx, etc. Since September, relative strength switched in favour of oils, industrial metals, financials, etc. This may change at some future date. Until then, it could be tough for pms to deliver the kind of sizzling performance that we saw prior to August.

    1. Goild


      Thank you. It indeed looks interesting.
      Perhaps this is an opportunity to pyramid. Say buy 5000 shares every time it goes up by 10% ?

      1. Herman

        be careful with these developing junior miners . A lot of things can go wrong, very speculative. AG is a better choice.

        1. vin

          how about fnv though it is not a junior one. But, lower risk vs. great potential if the price of gold/silver does go up.

          Another one which has performed quite well and it will keep on doing so unless silver price comes down significantly is paas. Let me know your thoughts. Thanks.

  3. Goild

    In addition to price there is the time scale. Given the sentiment it may take a while before the next significant swing takes place. However, gold can set for a while around some price.
    Hopefully higher as not to worry too much as now. We are in a critical stage that requires close management attention and action, if one is holing for the long run.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    next week too late: at the end of next week Oil will rise out of its HCL to be set on FOMC aftermath.

  5. Don

    GDX up nicely in the morning and now down on the day. It is this kind of disappointing action, day after day, that causes the weak hands to fold and puke up their shares to the smart money. Time to buy is now, not sell.

    1. Spanky

      It is a high risk area though. If the miners (Gdx) break the 100 WMA, I guarantee there will be a significant spike lower.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    GBPUSD topped today, on day 12, and is in DC decline through FOMC next week.

    USX seems to have found its DCL right at the expected 99.90 pivot 🙂
    Yet, a laggard JPY should find its way up very soon.

  7. ras

    Very important. XLE, XME, FAS, etc. price is above rising 10w ma. For gdx, price is below declining 10w ma. Classic strategy is: buy dips on the former, sell bounces on the latter.

  8. jonsyl

    yes indeed, dollar is key to gold. no reason yet for dollar downdraft. gold will slip and slide until there is some real follow through to yesterday’s slide in dxy. all rest is noise

  9. Spanky

    Honestly it looks like the Dow is setting up to tack on another 1000pts in a very short period of time. That probably means gold and bonds get hit hard again, while stocks continue their vertical ascent.

    1. jonsyl

      spanky, it’s all part of the scorth which apparently commenced Nov 15. Apparently very few have noticed. More seriously the market shows no signs of real weakness. As Gary said, not worth shorting as Trump cronies firmly entrenched for now and will continue to babble this thing. It will all unravel as the infighting and stupidity of new guard has real control of policy post inauguration.

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    RAS, yes oil should fall to 10wma to set HCL next week where it will make a short-erm buy opportunity.

  11. Goild

    Just because TIPS is doing well today and is penetrating the daily averages, and gold did not crash around noon, I think I will not chicken out, so far. I am still in hedging on the side.

    It seems to me that the fate of gold depends on how TIPS performs. They have been going together for several years.

  12. ARends

    Half of the Dow Jones Rally Just 3 Stocks that makes you think!
    It has been a huge move for the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average since the election of Donald Trump. The index is up a staggering 1,200 points plus since the election, and the thing many don’t realize is that three stocks have accounted for over half of the move. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), UnitedHealth Inc. (NYSE: UNH) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) are responsible for over half of the gains since November 8. The higher dollar price is a big factor, and the fact that all three appear as potential benefactors of a Trump win.

    1. ras

      Very true. Heavyweights are used to keep major indexes elevated. That is par for the course. It is not just GS. Brokerage complex and financials are very strong. It is not just cat. All heavy machinery guys like jec plus copper, nickel, al, steel, iron, coal, etc. As long as this persists, SM will stay elevated.

  13. ted

    Looks like the SCORCH in stocks have been postponed until next year. Too many bullish indicators lighting up. I’m a buyer!

  14. Goild

    Yes, the gold sentiment is low.
    Let the miners breakout and greed can in a matter of days change that sentiment.

  15. Goild

    Another very narrow range day for the miners. TIPS is up. One of these day we may have a gap up.
    For a gap down there must be a good reason which I cannot find. USD bounce is timid today.

  16. jonsyl

    gold still refusing to show it’s hand. dollar pop mild and so is gold. will know soon and expect the reaction to be violent. anything below 1150 and I’m out, until then hope for the best. Above 1210 likely to add more.Equities in same stalement, for that vix worth watching which needs and impulsive change to mark a direction. Below 11 and watch out.

  17. Goild

    Did I say chickening out of NUGT? No way.
    What would I do then? Going to the equities, oil, else? The grass isn’t greener elsewhere.
    And being up-to-date with any market takes time.
    And yet Gold is the place to be; it has a great of potential and gains can be very immediate!
    Just look at how long some candles can be and often.
    When I want to change the market it never works; when I change how I think about the market it always works.
    Point in case, we shouldn’t be expecting gold to go up or down. For those of us who are currently long, we should have a ticker to go short to follow gold if that is the next move.
    Better to lose some % figuring out the direction than to make the big mistake of playing macho and hoping for a comeback (i.e. being in hopium). In the long run it is the right habit to have. Once we align with the market then we can play old turkey.

  18. Gary Post author

    The spread between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism sentiment indicators has reached levels where stocks have tended to falter. Any further gains from this point will probably be given back.

  19. zkotpen

    Massive volume on GDX Dec 16 puts both 20 & 21 strike prices from 1 to 1:30 p.m. Tuesday… $1M & $2M, respectively…

    GDX can’t even touch the 20 day SMA… gold even further from its 10 day SMA…

    1. Robert

      Zkot you are forgetting about the massive 20,000 GLD March 127 calls bought yesterday about $1M and also today $4.6M worth of UUP calls were bought. So lots of bulls and lots of bears. Its just a big guess but we know one will win. So far the edge belongs to bears because gold is crap! Would just love a decent bounce, hell ill even take 1200 and just sell for a loss there. Gold has been a waste of time to trade we all here could have doubled our money in steel stocks, natural gas or even tech like AMD and Nvidia. Lets all sell this crap who cares if it goes back to 1900. It is too bipolar and even if it does go to 1900+ majority of people here including the gurus wont make money guaranteed because it will just go up in a very nonlinear choppy fashion. Only people holding GDX or gold stocks will make money. Everyone in NUGT/JNUG will lose!

      1. Goild

        Hey Robert,

        I will not get rid of NUGT eventually it will soar. It was $4000 in 2011!
        I might be dead then but sure it will soar.
        Best of luck!

  20. zkotpen


    Large short position in GDX options expiring next week.

    More interesting and relevant is the other part, about GDX’s inability to even touch the downsloping 20 day SMA. GDX has been unable to regain 22.15, from Nov 17 & giving me those divergences I look for!

    1. Goild


      Thank you!

      Things should resolve fairly soon. And it is likely that the market will be misleading.

    2. daverobson

      The bullion banks will make Gdx options expire worthless…so Gdx will close above 21 on expiry date .

    3. Goild


      A more balanced view when looking at the averages is to contrast both GDX and its inverse GDXS.

  21. zkotpen


    With the March, 2017, expiration, those GLD calls are irrelevant, near term; relevant intermediate term & may close in the money.

    Whom are you kidding? Whoever bought those GLD calls is clearly bottom fishing. If gold dips to 1117, I reckon they’ll buy twice twenty thousand more… or they’ll freak out and dump their position… maybe they’ll even go short… running the risk of clobberation from both sides!

  22. zkotpen


    “And it is likely that the market will be misleading.”

    Depends on which lens you look at it thru. If you’re looking thru the lens of fundamentals and news, then yes, your interpretation will likely be wrong & you will point the finger at the misleading market, thereby confirming it to your satisfaction.

  23. Dday

    “…. An inverse hammer can often mark the bottom.”

    See if you can spot how many inverse hammers there are on the decline in the chart posted.

    Here is a daily chart of gold, and indeed it looks as if we are in for a temporary bounce.


    The weekly looks less conclusive with no sign of the macd turning up or bottoming.


    The monthly still looks dire for gold.


    see if you can spin that chart to make it look positive.

    1. Gary Post author

      You left out the rest of my sentence, and the most important part of it.

      “After a long intermediate decline. “

    2. ARends


      Out of a global economical we know that we should be in a gold bull and from a technical point we are also. I think looking at your monthly & weekly chart you might miss a few points from a bull point OV.
      Monthly years of bull you might just see 2015 December low as retracement on fib 0.618 from the 2011 top. Weekly we at 0.618 fib retrace from Dec 2015 low to 2016 July 1375 which is still perfect for continuation of bull weekly retrace and monthly retrace . We are on the precipice of perfect technical supports and fibs for retracements of bull and going below 1150 might upset the applecart weekly bull to be optional long term (monthly) bear outlong but would still not eliminate the bull. You might realise the point we at 1170-1180 level gives us the leaway of the weekly close in the bar keeping us on the resistance level (from 2013) as you will see it over the monthly chart over resistance now over years. The 2015 dip (to fib) under that resistance was out of the channel from that resistance back to the top (1375) on the monthly. If bedip below level recover with in week as spike for upper rebounce we we resume bull. monthly, weekly and bounce daily. We need to look how daily influence weekly then monthly.

  24. Dday

    The one aspect that will make or break your investing strategy over the next few years will be the dollar. Embrace its rise as Europe folds, and other currencies are racing to devalue or continue to wait for a dollar decline, like looking for gold at the end of a rainbow.

  25. ARends

    Dday & Robert
    My optimism is also grounded in the start of the bull 2007-2008. Have a look at the first retracement. S CARY but then the acceleration. Considering present influences of debt, dollar ect gold currency delinking started in the 70 with all countries participating but gold kept a place from 2008 (must have been signs for the 2009 burst clever money) while correlations since are jumping and changing rapidly from one thing to another with a new cattle of fish 0 % intrst. The other thing we can use the 2008 ICH and ICL that was on the fib with close above monthly 0.618 then we see the continuation of the bull market with 3/4 of cycle just above icl to 2011 https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZQ12kIHJ/

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