129 thoughts on “GOLD YEARLY CYCLE LOW

  1. Strike

    Thanks Gary. Those are my thoughts exactly. Getting a bit ahead of myself, but the big question is exactly the one you mentioned – whether this rally will truncate at or near the August high, or continue to complete leg 3 of an ongoing bull trend. The latter should/would/could exceed the 1000% or so gains in NUGT/JNUG achieved in leg 1. But again, getting WAY ahead of myself.

    1. Gary Post author

      We haven’t seen bearish sentiment this extreme in almost 20-30 years. Amazing when you consider gold is still over 100 points from making new lows.

      1. TraderPete

        Very instructive video, Gary. My sentiments exactly. I’ve always maintained that we’re still in a secular bull market in gold and silver. And, like you said, this next wave up should be a doozy. We should see new highs, much higher than $1,400. The third wave, in EW terminology, is usually the longest.
        Thanks, my friend,
        TraderPete 👍

  2. vin

    Gary, Thank you so much for the insight. What a wonderful video! Is it too early to start buying yet? Or, should we start nibbling? Thank you in advance for your response.

  3. Steffmeister

    I nailed both the termination in Gold and the turnaround, shit I am good and humble too 🙂

    Ok, timing is crucial when dealing with these 3x leverage ETF-s like JNUG. I think I have a great set of tools to manage the Gold market going forward and yes we are looking forward to a several month rally here.

    The real fireworks will start 2nd of Jan 2017.

    1. GMoney

      Yes, you made some nice calls. Thanks for sharing the info with everyone. Hope you’re right on the several month rally.

      1. Steffmeister

        Tx GMoney, yes but stay alert I am a beginner at this, not trading markets, but using Fib-fractal analysis.

        Ok, just looked at Gary’s video, EW is a nice tool to have in your bag, but during trendshifts almost all EW gets confused- it works better when the trend is steady and clear.

        Ok 1 wave up, this is a second, we are looking forward to a third wave up EW speaking:
        Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to “get in on a pullback” will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three’s midpoint, “the crowd” will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

        However, there is a strong possibility that it might be an A-B-C wave instead, with a new decline fearsome correction to a double bottom or a new low (deflationary crash). That has not been decided yet!

        Yes, the fractal indicates a top around midMay 2017, lets see how it plays out …

        1. Pedestrian

          Gary has gone EW? Oh that should drive Avi apoplectic. How long before he accuses him of using his material. This has all the makings of a great online drama. Or a comedy!

          1. bill

            You got one thing right Ped you are a comedy and those who followed your lame advice just lost a ton of money.

          2. Pedestrian

            I know this is the internet Bill and you are probably thousands of kilometers away but holy macaroni man, I can smell the booze from here anyway. Your guru got it wrong btw. Better luck next time.

  4. Pedestrian

    This is a crazy, crazy world.

    And in that crazy world gold did not rise yesterday because of any particular special snowflake related to the intrinsic market value of gold or investors suddenly getting horny about it because the world is about to go upside down or the financial system suddenly start to crack.

    Not at all. Nothing of the kind.

    You want to know why gold went up? I will tell you. Gold rose yesterday because a very big company in Japan had a really bad day and as Toshiba crashed 50% and Japanese equities suddenly experienced a cross asset sell-off the Yen/USD was propelled upwards.

    And we should all know by now that when Yen rises that gold follows because that is the correlation.

    And that my friends is exactly what just happened. So before you get too carried away by the magic of precious metals please stop to consider exactly what is happening in Japan and then ask yourself if that Nikkei chart is going to keep falling or will it reverse quickly once investors realize that Toshiba was perhaps sold off a little too hard.

    1. Emptyness

      You will always find reasons why gold can’t go up and has to fall to Zero USD. Please write about Stocks or Stamps or Dogs – and leave gold in silence. Thanks Ped.

      1. Pedestrian

        Actually Emptyness, that was pretty good information I wrote up above. There just so happened to be a direct relationship between Japanese equities and gold performance yesterday and you had best start learning to read the tea leaves on metals better or you will continue to get your ass kicked again and again.

        The problem with you bugs is that you live in ignorance most of the time and cannot accept objective facts. Every day is the Dark Ages for you guys where gold lore is built around mythology and conjecture.

        The high priests of your religion send you astray again and again and yet you keep going back for more choir rehearsals. For your sake I hope you start learning and open your eyes. Algos run the gold price. Its pretty simple really. Figure it out and you might turn in more winning trades from now on.

        1. Pedestrian

          Here is the Nikkei on a weekly chart. Is it really doomed? And will it fall enough to send the Yen/Dollar soaring and thus save the bacon of the gold bugs? I don’t think so. All we have here is a minor correction on an otherwise bullish equity chart. So gold will not likely see more than a modest bounce and I certainly would not go all-in just yet until the picture on Japanese equities clarifies itself.

          1. Pedestrian

            Nikkei looks like it will make a cup-and-handle pattern. Short term bullish for gold. Not so much a couple weeks down the road.

    2. jskauai

      Hello Pedi, looks as though your yen/gold relationship is exactly what these 800 pound central bankers use to manage the gold price, no? And also it is my understanding that the English pronunciation of Toshiba is Too- cheap-a!.

      1. Pedestrian

        Maybe. I really have no idea. But if the powers that be wanted to push gold around all they need to do is apply the appropriate pressure to the Japanese stock market. The big Tsunami and Earthquake in Japan that destroyed the nuclear reactors at Fukushima came in March 2011 and the Nikkei spiked down hard immediately affecting gold prices.

        As the disaster unfolded Japanese stocks began to fall and did not recover until the end of 2012. Gold peaked just three months after the big quake and also fell in tandem with Japanese stocks while the Yen rose in value.

        I recall reading many comments and articles at that time from analysts marveling that Yen could actually be going up after such a devastating quake. Those people don’t trade currencies though and don’t follow the correlations so it was a complete mystery to them that Yen and the Nikkei are inverse one another.

        I did know however and now I am telling you. If you doubt any of this then just pull up the charts I mention and look what happened tick by tick. The Fukushima quake destroyed gold. Prematurely perhaps.

        I am pretty sure though that no Central Bank is powerful enough to make earthquakes. At least not yet. Just keep the correlations in mind when you are trading though and a lot of market mysteries will revealed.

  5. Emptyness

    The money supply in the euro zone is rising very fast – that’s a major reason why gold is going to reach new all time highs in the coming years.
    Original german:
    Die Geldmenge M3  im Euroraum ist im November unerwartet deutlich gestiegen. Sie nahm um 4,8 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr zu. Volkswirte hatten nur einen Anstieg um 4,4 Prozent erwartet, nach einem Plus von 4,4 Prozent im Vormonat.

  6. dboz

    Gary, thanks for seeing what so few could. It’s still been a rough road and the smooth pavement is still miles ahead but did anyone think the potential path to all time highs was going to come easy? Still looking for ATH as a possibility now as you proposed early on with your big picture. Time will tell of course. Keep up the good work. Your counseling and conviction in the face of ridicule on your calls has kept many of us from jumping off the cliff in this statistical anomaly we have endured. We appear to have seen some sun peak through the gloomy clouds of gold 800 calls. Looking forward to making money!

    Nice work!

    Some confirmation from others.


  7. Markab

    By reading the comments here, it is pretty clear that gold has much farther to fall. Look at reality, everybody seems giddy that gold has moved up $20 over the course of the last couple of weeks after losing $250 from the yearly highs. Maybe it is just relief that we’ve traded in that ubiquitous +/- $7 daily range and for now have put an end to the $25-35 daily drops we had been getting. Seems like a stretch to call this a bull market. Nearly all of the gains this year were given up; that is not normal for an emerging bull. If we even approach the $1380 level again, the main impulse will be to sell; that will likely happen well earlier than that.

  8. Goild

    Good morning guys and gals,
    I am missing the action as I am away form my trading platform.
    I cannot watch Gary’s video either.
    It is nice seeing gold/miners indeed going up.
    I would not get excited too much, but be ready for a double bottom, or going further down.
    Hopefully we have seen the bottom.
    Then having that “mental strength to ride a bull market” is something to work on.

    “we were told to notr miss a trend…”

    “You know, it is a bull market”

  9. dboz

    You have to have an open mind to all possible outcomes for sure. In the meantime, it’s anyone’s guess as to what world macro factors come into play. And it is normal to give up those types of gains, it’s happened before. Again, if gold is going to ATH, do you think it would be easy to get there? It’s going to test all involved up and down. Could this be a couple week counter rally and another nose dive, sure. Could it be setting up for a run back to 1380 or better, sure. Could it crash tomorrow, sure. Could it jump $100, sure. OPEN MIND for both. Time and conditions change. Be able to adapt. I am not giddy. I am seeing there could be a turn coming that has potential upside. That is how you make money. At what point of downside do you feel is a level gold needs to hit? We are at all time low sentiment? Miners closing up shop? Bankruptcies? I mean, the gloom crew just thinks it has to get worse and worse and worse. Yet no one sees any issues with higher and higher for the SM or the dollar or anything else.

  10. Gary Post author

    Ultimately I’m going to be right. A bull market will correct all timing mistakes. Most missed the baby bull because they were afraid to pull the trigger because it was just too damn scary. Or they entered at the top when it was just too damn easy.

    I’m sick and tired of the pathetic losers on here calling other peoples trades contrary signals. When you fleas grow some balls and are willing to stick your neck out and make your own calls so we can use you as a contrary signal then you will be allowed to post on the site. From now on I’m just going to delete these parasites from the site.

    1. goldilocks

      thank you, thank you, thank you! And tell them to not let the screen door hit ’em in the butt on the way out!

      1. Pedestrian

        Gary, one thing I cannot understand is why you allow some of the crybabies to use your site to advertise their sites where they are kicking you around and sobbing sour grapes. Nobody would tolerate that anywhere else.

        Just block them.

  11. vin

    Dear Gary, a few days ago you said: “….We got stopped out when gold lost $1275 right after the election. Now I’m trying to get in at the bottom of this yearly cycle low. We’ve made a couple of tries, but gotten stopped out at basically break even twice now as this daily cycle is stretching longer than normal.

    I’m waiting for the next potential setup to try again. It may come this week. ….”

    Please tell us are you in or not? Should we start buying? Please let us know.

      1. vin

        of-course! What was I thinking? Having seen your record here I am seriously considering it.

        Right now just after Christmas I don’t want to spend any more money. But, it is always in my mind.

        btw do you still require for autorenewal when one subscribes?

  12. Markab

    Alright, let’s apply this logic to the stock market. S&P 500 currently at 2250. Its low in 2009 was 666. It has been going higher for over 7 years; not even a correction by the technical definition in over 5 years. If the S&P were to drop back to 800 or so, would anybody still be calling that a bull market? Yet, we consider going from 1900+ down to 1045, then up to 1380, back down to 1125 as still a bull???

    1. Gary Post author

      Exactly. Gold made a higher yearly cycle high and now a higher yearly cycle low. The cyclical bear market is over and the secular bull market has resumed.

      Way too many people are attaching way too much significance to the last move down after the election. That was triggered by the stock market intervention to prevent the market from opening limit down. Gold was collateral damage from that intervention. Get rid of that intervention in the stock market and gold forms it’s YCL back in Oct. and we never have any of these discussions about bear markets.

      Yes it sidetracked gold for a couple extra months but it didn’t change the fundamental picture. The US is still bankrupt and Trump just plans to make it more bankrupt. The only escape is to print and monetize debt. Ultimately that will keep the secular gold bull intact.

  13. Goild


    I would say it makes sense, it is likely, that gold will eventually go up.
    The thing is to be present “woody Allen said it is 90% of success to be present, or so”.
    If we are right and it is likely then 1-5 years from now we will be delighted.
    It is also having faith that things will work out. We are not asking for anything unreasonable.
    This indeed might be a heck of an opportunity.

  14. ras

    Nice video Gary. Congratulations. Nice moves in jnug and nugt and many seniors. Juniors are limping a bit. We have to be pragmatic and take what the market gives us. Just take advantage of the trend in place while it lasts without getting locked into any particular scenario. It could still go the way of sub $1000 folks. Who knows? Dust just lost 50 ma. Normally, when this happens, there tends to be a retest.

    1. Pedestrian

      Both DUST and JDST are well within acceptable price ranges (despite the sell off) that I have no qualms at all about considering buying them again soon. Both look bullish in their current set up and I strongly suspect this little gold rally will be short lived once we see 2017 arrive.

  15. Goild

    I agree with ras, next week we can start getting back to early lows. The thing is be attentive at how the market behaves and if clear one can drop say 50% of the shares. It would be shear day trading skills at play.

  16. Goild

    I got into a small position on platinum, and surprisingly it is down, it is not following gold, this might be a warning.

  17. Gary Post author

    The XAU just broke the intermediate trend line. Gold isn’t even over 1150 yet. I can imagine how far miners are going to have rallied by the time gold reaches even 1300.

    Like I said the weekly stochastics will get overbought.

    This is why 90% of retail traders never make any money. They are emotionally incapable of buying low. They fall into the trap of assuming the trend will continue indefinitely.

    I’m going to be right: bull markets correct all timing mistakes. But most traders are not able to use that to their advantage to make money.

    1. Gary Post author

      Short term miners are very overbought. We should get some kind of pullback or consolidation next week. Will you use it to your advantage to get long or will you let it pass your by because you are still too nervous to pull the trigger.

      1. vin

        Thank you Gary. My jnug bought @4.65 is doing well. I plan to hold it for the time being. You are a genius.

  18. Goild

    This strong push up for the miners is saying the manipulators either did a great job or a big mistake.
    Things look very bullish in the miners. nugt ~16% up.

  19. stary

    That channel stuff works pretty good.
    I Called SA, and it isn’t finished yet after it corrects two day mon tues.
    As long as Spy stays red today.
    I Called Spy and it isn’t finished yet until 220 or so.
    I bought Nke at 50.90 today to channel up on the daily to 53 or so.
    I will play Nke and Spy against each other on the way and take it as it goes.
    Off course you never know. That why I always have stops.

  20. stary

    Nice of you to say!
    I did get tapped out twice on SA. Before it went up.
    Nke feels good. As is has two channels. Small weekly and larger Weekly.
    I am trading the smaller channel.
    The RSI(2) weekly needs to stick 100 Top again before it falls.
    And it has formed a perfect daily channels to force that.
    Stop at 50.87 at this point. Even if tapped out. I never stop playing the same
    chart until I am under the price point.

  21. victor

    “”Gary Post author
    From now on I’m just going to delete these parasites from the site. “”
    Finally. I’m sick and tired to see all bs bashings on you on your own FREE site, like you are responsible for their own wrong trades. More then 200 posts some days !! Newer seen that for 4 yrs been member of this blog…. Some turned this blog into their writing field or advertising their own business… Get rid of those…

  22. ras

    A white hammer candle followed by a long white candle on weekly HUI. I would be surprised if there were to be any significant pause before HUI hits 220. We are already above 10 w ma. Lot of buying pressure. One day/one week at a time. At some point, we need upside macd crossover on the weekly to confirm change in trend. We are not there yet.

  23. pacoquin

    So far so good : I said many times Dollar shld go to 103 ? (when at 97-98 GS was expecting its collapse ?), done. Now shld correct back to 97-96 ? So… big metals and miners rebound are expected . So far so good. And what would happen if Dollar, after correcting turns back to 103 and faces 110-120 ? Well gold, silver and miners back to bear market…. will see. Am not a troll, am just a trader since 1998, which has a different opinion of the market. Rgds

    1. Pedestrian

      Check the HUI, Ras. If gold can break above its falling trend channel then we may be game-on. Right now it has stopped just short though. We got past the first major hurdle by breaking solidly out of the 20 day MA and important charts like GDX and are closing in on the 50 quickly. My interest is definitely growing but in the back of my mind I can’t help but consider this is thin month-end trading in the dying days of the year so I am not jumping into anything too heavily with both boots strapped on just yet. Also note the GDX and GDXJ charts where the upper channel is going to present major resistance. Failure to break above easily will mean this bear continues. But we damned close.

  24. Goild

    There are good news and indeed very good ones. We have jumped strongly into the previous support level.
    It took a lot to break it with the FED rate hike. To go down again it will require similarly a strong reason.
    My guess is that NUGT will wander about $8.5 to then go to $10-12-15.
    Good trading to all!

    “we were told to not miss a trend…”

    1. Pedestrian

      Closing numbers will matter a lot today and tomorrow as to what happens next. I am trying to stay open minded. I can’t help but think though that its too easy that gold should stage a repeat of last year and put in a similar performance in 2017.

      Why?…because that’s what the majority of the market thinks is coming.

      And so the market must be wrong.

      I mean, every dog and his cat who missed the 2016 rally is sitting on the buy button or has already bought gold stocks to catch what they think will be another mother of a rally. They won’t miss it this time around. You just watch! But I suspect Mrs market who is usually a miserable mistress will hand them the unexpected.

      Watch the Nikkei folks. It is going to put in a cup-n-handle and then reverse higher sending gold right back down during January and sending the easy-money crowd scampering to bail out of trades that lost (again) despite the usual bleating of the gold retards who can’t figure out what the hell is really going on in this market to save their own sorry lives.

      1. dboz

        Oh, so you are more of a believer in the possibility that 4 straight down months and 7 straight down weeks and massive stretch in time and price are not enough to keep it easy for bears? You are delusional. If you hate gold so much, why do you come on here and keep getting everyone scared to pull the trigger? Two days ago I told you at some point you have to take the chance and you can’t always sit and wait for confirmation or you miss out on days like today. 23% days don’t come often. Just saying, some of us saw it last week and started buying in. I erased a lot of losses since my buys in the fall in one day. It could all fall apart just as quickly, but I don’t see that happening after a brutal shakedown and shakeout that made holding long well worth today. Old Turkey caught the move. I understand when Gary says most will miss out. It takes more gets to buy tomorrow than it did a week ago IMO.

        1. Pedestrian

          You obviously don’t read my posts very carefully or that often. I am bullish gold when it makes sense to buy it. All you need to read into my commentary is that I take a common sense approach to metals and don’t get retarded about them on any given “up day”.

          I happen to agree a bounce was in the cards and have said so many times. That is hardly discouraging to anybody. But why should you care so much anyway since this board is representative of more than a single viewpoint. That includes mine.

          So I am very sorry pal but I can’t rah-rah-rah along with you just because you get excited about a one or two day reversal. You are obviously on an emotional roller coaster. Gold seems to do that to people here.

          Try to exercise some restraint.

          1. dboz

            Damn straight. I get very excited about days like today after 2 straight months of losses. Many here are down big and a rally is welcome for them. I am not rah rah rah-ing anything.

            This could all pull back and fail. But if it doesn’t, then what? Where are you bullish? You are trying to keep open minded to the fact that gold could go UP. Yet you expect and have been expecting it to go DOWN to 800-900 region which you post on a daily basis. How is that bullish? That is very bearish after these last few months and below AISC of many miners, meaning massive financial issues, meaning industry carnage.

            I am on the same roller coaster as I have been on (STRAIGHT THE FREAK DOWN), I just decided to jump in deeper on the chance for a swing at the bottom of the monster first hill. So insult me if you wish as being a cheer leader after getting some relief after HUGE losses and taking the chance on the swing that worked for today to help minimize the situation. That is condescending and you look mad because you got it wrong for now and missed out on huge monster gains. And by the way, I never in my life bought a gold stock until this year. So I am by no means a gold bug as you so disparagingly refer to those who see an under bought asset with HUGE long term potential as some type of whacky loons in a cult trying to make money in the market.

          2. Pedestrian

            You have a reading problem Dboz. I have never said gold would go to 800. EVER.
            Go back and find a single post where I wrote that. None exist never mind one each and every day.

            As a matter of fact I bought NUGT back in early December for 8 dollars and change anticipating a bounce then but had to take a draw waiting until today so we are not that different. I did post a comment on that buy and can admit I was early by a couple weeks and getting as exasperated as everyone else here being under water on it.

            I don’t know why my analysis would bother you so much anyway. We all have an opinion so no worries. I will tell you though my record on gold is second to none so I don’t really give a shit what you or anyone else on this board thinks.

            I am almost always right.

  25. ras

    Worth noting. Weekly stochastics of dust breaking down. Price goes below ma10 weekly. Likely, 5 month uptrend broken. That could be the tailwind for HUI and its derivatives. Opinions are fine. It is imperative to be on the right side of price. Dust likely going to the dust bin for a while. Cheers.

    1. Pedestrian

      You could be right Ras. I will stay open to all technicals and check yours. What matters to me most right now is the gold close for 2016 because that should tell me all I need to know about early next year.

    2. Pedestrian

      Here is a chart of the HUI showing the trend channel I was mentioning above. The close today will be below the line by the looks of it so all bets are off if HUI starts falling again tomorrow meaning it has failed at important resistance. Chart comes from Goldtent courtesy of FullGoldCrown who often does very nice work.

    1. Pedestrian

      Anything is possible Steff. But the Nikkei poked its head above the 2007 high this month so its bullish going forward despite the fact it is now making a monthly reversal candle. Meanwhile, you may want to quote one of those “highly skilled analysts” you refer to so we know you are not just making stuff up to make a point. Who are they exactly?

        1. Steffmeister

          Mr Abe and his bankster friends are propping up NIKKEI at the moment, but soon they will run out of gas … 100% fake …

          1. Pedestrian

            Pure conjecture. No facts at all. According to the experts Japan should already have entered a period of hyperinflation and currency destruction. They were ALL wrong about that. And the reason my fine friend is because the Yen is a reserve currency and most of its debt is owned by a combination of the BOJ or the domestic pension system. As far as propping up of markets go; well so what? European, Chinese and US stock markets are also propped up periodically by the actions of Central Bank interventions. Maybe they will all run out of gas together. I don’t know and neither do you. All I can tell you for sure is that lately the Japanese stock market is a predictor of Yen action and that impacts directly on gold fortunes. The correlation will break one day but that is not today.

  26. zbigkid

    My JNUG position is now up 52% since last thursday.

    If you want to ride, don’t ride the white horse.
    If you want to ride, don’t ride the white horse.
    White Horse, don’t ride the white horse.

    If you want to be rich, you got ta be a bitch !
    If you want to be rich, you got ta be a bitch !
    Ride the white pony. (JNUG)
    Ride, Ride the white pony. White Pony.

  27. ras

    Relentless buying pressure into the close: nugt, jnug, gdx, gdxj, etc. No significant support for dust until 32. This should keep the gold pot cooking for a while yet. Cheers.

  28. Goild

    Congratulations to all who got the guts to ride miners.
    Today is awesome!
    I can share that my 3 1./2 lots where effectively bought at $5.56 a share. so the gains are around 50%+.
    Though let us not get euphoric because these are just crumps.

  29. Robert

    Where are all the clown bears now!! You imbeciles!! Im still here!!
    Gary, doesn’t look like any pullback coming tomorrow or next week gold has closed above 1150

    1. ras

      Too much buying pressure. We will know when momo wanes. Forget about bull/bear. That is passe. Best to be a trend follower up or down. Cheers.

    2. Pedestrian

      Clown bears?

      Come on Robert, you are down 75% on your trades because you were so smart and bullish you held all the way down while the bears were eating your lunch. Please man. You could be a little more contrite and introspective. You hardly recovered an inch of your losses today.

  30. ras

    Major trend change in dust to down. Previous low at 49 taken out today. adx sell signal on dust. The place to be is gdx and its derivatives. Time to change gears.

  31. Robert

    Gary should really ban all u bears calling for GDX 12 bucks and lower. You losers hope u lose everything!

    1. Pedestrian

      Don’t be silly Robert. Nobody here ever said GDX 12.00 that I can recall. Not that its impossible. The DUST chart has not been materially damaged (yet) so we could still see a continuation of the downtrend once sentiment levels get back to normal after this bounce is complete.

  32. bill

    Where is troll ? We rallied large at the close, I know i know your buying DUST cause it’s a bargain right now lol

  33. GMoney

    Looks like the metals and miners will end the year with respectable gains. Today’s action was nice, but I have some concern about silver’s less than robust participation. I think these gains will be digested for the next few days before 2017 metals Bulls gets underway.

    1. TraderPete

      No worries, mate. That’s the way the cyclical bull market started off in 12/15. Gold started off strong and silver lagged behind. Just be patient, silver will catch up. That seems to be the pattern.

          1. Pedestrian

            I am not negative Pete. I am a realist and I look at facts objectively.

            Listen up, I am going to tell you something and you might want to tune in and listen instead of being so sure of yourself all the time. But honestly I don’t know why I even bother with you gold bugs since most of you are so pig headed.

            Now get out your handy dandy favourite charting software and follow along:

            What I want you to do is go to the HUI on a daily chart (or GDX or GDXJ or NUGT whatever it is you like best). And when you get there I want you to put your chart settings on Logarithmic instead of Linear.

            Now take your trusty plastic ruler and stick it right on the screen and trace a line from the August peak on any one of those charts down to where we are today. You got that far yet?

            You see it now?

            There is NO BREAKOUT in any of them. This is still in a bear trend. The HUI has stopped short of a BO and is right on the trend line meaning tomorrow is make or break time if it cannot bust through.

            In fact, based on the record single day purchases of NUGT shares today I rather suspect it is going to be one hell of a bear-trap and you are going to get eaten for lunch in the very near future.

            By a hungry bear naturally.

            Have a nice day. I am sure this was a complete waste of my time and effort.


    Re the secular Bull/Bear argument, I came across this article from “acting-man blog”. It makes a very good point about the size of corrections in new bull markets. Relevant extract below ….

    If a rally does get underway in early 2017, one thing is definitely going to be different from previous years though: it will be the first time in the past four years that gold and gold stocks deliver a new year rally from a higher low (the 2014, 2015 and 2016 rallies all started from progressively lower lows).

    That would represent further subtle confirmation that the market’s character has changed. Consider in this context that the first correction in a new bull market can retrace a significant percentage of the initial rally – in the worst case, up to 100%. Such significant early corrections usually have in common that they generate greater bearishness than was evident shortly before the initial rally phase, which seems to be the case with gold at this juncture.

  35. Goild

    NUGT reached today the top of the previous level channel. So I just sold 1 lot as tomorrow morning one can expect a bit of a retracement. We shall see.

  36. Goild

    Volume on NUGT also was substantial 89M shares. Except for the rate hike two days, 93M and 107 M, today’s volume was the largest of the year.

  37. vin

    For something like that I look at smas(daily) and previous resistance points. Above all I am a contrarian. I pay much more weight to the expert advise.

  38. Goild


    Thanks. I think I can make a bit more by rebuying tomorrow early in the morning.
    Though things considered I am for the long run.
    It is a heck of an opportunity.

    1. vin

      I was sure that jnug would go up but for sure I did not expect this, the rate of increase is simply incredible. Remember it was selling at 3.68 a few days ago.

      But, Goild I thought you sold only a fraction of your holdings. That is not a bad position to be in, whether it goes up or down?

      The increase was so large that I was tempted to take some profit but then I decided to wait and see. The momentum is high. And, the gold bugs though excited are not outright bullish yet. I will wait till they become bullish and absolutely fearless. For jnug I aim for ~7.50 tomorrow. It has crossed the 20dma but is not close to 50mda. I doubt if it will reach there in this run, though one can never be certain.

      For me jnug or nugt are a short term plays. I don’t consider them investments either. My gold portfolio did very well to-day, though nothing like jnug which was up 27.5%.

  39. Strike

    The current action – Dec ’15 to Dec ’16 – is similar to the double bottom in 1999 & 2001, just compressed with more octane in between. More importantly both are right translated.
    My philosophy is that both moonshots (like today) and, conversely, severe downdrafts are buy candidates, subject to screening fundamentals and technicals. Stay away from creeping markets. Today looks like 2001 all over again. I choose not to miss it.
    This market needed badly to recover from its 90% give back with max gusto. It certainly did.
    Good call Gary, IMHO.

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