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The SPX is now in the process of negating its breakout as well. The day isn’t over yet, but if the breakdown holds into the close that will be another warning sign.
JUst look at vix and uvxy. No need for further comment.
haha be careful Gary that’s the second time you nearly said Trump being erected 🙂 totally agree about stockmarkets, I am out. I hope my portfolio getting erected in the coming months !
Victor, I think oil should render a higher high, a bull trap tomorrow in Asian trading before rolling over.
Once it’s run so high it should run higher to exhaust sentiment first and drive profit taking on break-out.
At least this is the most likely outcome, with the highest probability: oil above 52.22 and then waiting it to roll over and, BASED ON SIGNAL, to short it there, but now – now you are a bit early I think.
Thank you Alex, duck,
Will sell it if profit today, if not, will add some shorts tomorrow, thinking it should go back to 40’s…
o’k, sold it 43.60$ + , can’t ignore your warning…
Sorry for interfering.
Like I said, I don’t know your timeline.
I am looking 12 months out and every short and Gary’s Gold oil ratio is gonna get hit hard.
Alex, how do you see Italy election affecting Euro and gold? If Italy leaves Euro goes down US dollar higher gold?? If Italy stays, Euro higher US dollar lower gold? Thanks
Sorry, Dave, I have no idea – the thing is too big for me to comprehend …just wait and see price action.
This referendum is just as big as Trump getting elected, when I went 100% cash (fortunately on profit) because I did not have any direction from Lady Market.
Victor, pls do what you think is right for you.
So, if you think shorting oil now is ok, DO IT, DO NOT LISTEN TO ME DO NOT LISTEN TO ANYONE, YOU ARE YOUR BEST FRIEND!
the points I wanted to make were that:
– it looked to me like you ran impatient and threw the short w/o a strategic signal
– you ignore that, probabilistically, such shots of mania (or depressions) as oil now has post-OPEC deal more often than rare produce new highs/lows before estinsuishing, so that the entry is best after break-out/down.
it may be oil’s case now or not, but it is best to consider these 2 items, particularly the former one, THE STRATEGIC SIGNAL (a swing high/low, intermarket relationship, filling of a gap, whatever), not making an impuslive entry out of rush.
Thanks Alex, of course you’r right. For years I’m doing day trading and most buy/sell’s accomplished in a 1 hr timeframe, with high probability I know what’s going to happen in particular hour. Get scared with warning ( : so, with a position of about 5,000$ moves in 2-3 cents gives me 40-60$, so I bought HOD 2x 9.71, sold 9.73 … , now it’s 9.94, usually I wait till 3:30 to make a move but profit is profit even if it small…., better for me do not comment …
Haha I would be careful shorting oil. This is how bull markets are. $50 oil in the grand scheme of things is cheap.
Good luck though 🙂
……adorable handle!
day not finished yet, but can anyone tell me when gold had an intaday reversal from sell off low to positve close on the day
Things are looking a little more positive for the gold bugs today. Perhaps the winds are changing.
The fat lady delivered a stunning Aria. You did not hear?
You calling a bottom or just looking for a bounce?
Bounce at the minimum.
Gotta look at all my sentiment and tech indicators over the weekend to see if I think this is THE bottom.
Sold my LABD position today at a modest profit. There are better opportunities for a bear elsewhere.
Covered half shorts on TCK. Posted here in real time. Shorted at 26.44 covered half at 24.44 +7.5% in 4 days.
Current trading positions
Long EUR/USD from 1.058
Short TCK (half covered) from 26.44
Short GDX Dec 20 Puts
Short SLW Dec 18 puts
Long TLT Jan 122 calls.
All posted here in real time. Since Gary complains that only he is able to actually do that, I have to specify.
yay
Victor, if you acted on a signal of your day trading and not out of impulse then I appologize!
It is me who should not have interefered.
no Alex, just opposite, I appreciate it… ( :
many greens to you… ( :
AWE!
I wouldbe very much surprised for miners to have bottomed !!!!
It is highly unlikely, there is a large probability they would render the undercut tomorrow for the YCL.
The volume is so small …and the market so much range-bound, ….there is a tripple hitting of the lower $20-area….IT BEGS FOR AN UNDERCUT, IT CANNOT END HERE, NOT AN YEARLY CYCLE LOW!
If gold closes aboe 1184 tomorrow……..I will go long…..otherwise just sitting on the sidelines.
WTF happened to gold miners. Shot up and then went back down all the way. Why the hell they playing games with gold. Why is it so difficult just to get a sustained up move? Look on oil and nat gas. Even when they drop hard they at least get a nice counter trend rally. With gold its like it is not allowed just one way. Beginning of year it was the same but reverse, bull market with no dips allowed. Now bear market with no bounce allowed. Sickening!!
I think you will get your rally shortly.
Hope so but its so frustrating why the hell is gold hated so much? Let the damn thing rally and then it is a better short. Why the hell they keep pressing shorts after it has collapsed? I hope the shorts go bankrupt and get margin calls whenever it rallies
Robert, If you follow the COT you will see that the small guy is refusing to believe this is the end of the Gold bull and keeps averaging down.
That is one of the reasons this has fallen as far as it has.
I think so as well.
Even the hard nosed gold bugs are setting on the sidelines so its time for a rally.
The market will take from the many and give to the few, its always been that way.
Looks like a bounce may be in the works. But, pms look weak. GDXJ SCTR vaue = 1.6, pitiful, very weak, suitable only for a quick trade. It would take many months to repair the SCTR value.
Big rally unlikely. Could be a vigorous bounce to relieve OS condition. Likely, gold bounce to $1240-$1260( 50 ma). After that, who knows? Cheers.
The PMs do some surreal things on the downside that is for sure, from a technical perspective. Maybe currencies come close.
Robert gold isn’t hated. There has been a big move in the bond market (trillions of dollars lost). The big players are just reshuffling their decks. It appears its about over.
WallStreet cmon it is hated. USD fell from the highs yesterday and kept selling off today yet gold made new lows. QQQ collapsed and continues to fall and SPY has started its fall but still no one is buying gold! Just a little small bounce today it held up ok into the close but look on the damn miners. Inverted V. Shorts keep winning they never lose
Robert,
In August I mentioned that if GDX closed at $24 it would be the second highest annual gain for GDX (Or HUI) in 16 years.
Even after this decline, it will be the 3rd best year,
The fat lady sings today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M
hahahah and she is a bull
To the gold bugs still standing. Better days ahead 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1bFr2SWP1I
Despite my boldness to get longer while NUGT downfall, I ended 3% positive on my 100% NUGT shares.
Reading Alex pessimistic comment about gold, seeing the pre-session failure of gold to go up, having USD lower, and EU, GBP, OIL up, and then seeing it failing again after the 2:00 PM rally, made sold all my position.
When it was near $15 it had the same behavior at some point. The next morning it went down hard.
Gold’s downtrend has been a precision straight down line reminiscent of some days when I believe the institutions dump a security; they cannot do it all at once and so they dump it little by little resulting in a nice negative slope line. It might be happening here. The end here might be a strong selloff or a sudden strong reversal. Tomorrow might be a down day for Gold to close a negative week. I hate to be out but this game is about mastering oneself.
Well TIP’s candle pattern may indicate a reversal. The averages are away from Gold’s close. So just the middle way; got back 50% of my position.
Different signals are showing up. Who has clarity in what is going on? Please share it!
would consider buying GC on a breakout above 1187 and then 1201.
already long and holding Feb 1150 puts to trade against.
Let us keep in mind the big picture. If we get the real bottom with a substantial amount of shares and Gary is right so it will eventually flight to heaven, we will make a trade of a life time. The world population is not shrinking and people buy gold. Sooner or later, as Livermore would say, the cycle will repeat. The big picture is to be loaded with 3X leveraged shares at the bottom and then play old turkey. I keep it in mind.
No Gary, Alex we dont need no undercut stop run. Enough blood has shed already. Lets go up!
Haha Robert you’re right. This is about enough frustration for anyone long gold/silver/platinum. I think most people bailed.
Congratulations for hanging in there!!
One never really knows but it feels like the gold market is finally ready to turn and go higher.
Generally the moves start during the night in the futures market.
This is a guessing game and nothing more.
GOLD, NUGT, GDXJ, are essentially flat for the last two weeks while Gold is being going down in a straight line.
Is the equity market holding the miners?
I guess the probabilities for tomorrow are actually positive for gold to go up. USD would have to have a reversal as well as GBP and EU. Which I think they should follow through today’s upswing. So I added 25% more shares.
Gary,
To my reading of gold chart……..we had our undercut in gold today….I want to see gold moving higher tomorrow to 1180+ and close there.
If we are able to get gold to close 1180+….we have turned the corner….if you believe we are in a bull market. I will certainly go long if we close the week at 1180 tomorrow.
On the other hand, if gold sells off and closes the week below $1165…..the retest has failed and I will not go long……..as I said before, I want to see a successful retest before going long and to me tomorrow’s action in gold will tell the story.
The situation suggests that gold may close with a hammer on the weekly candle chart.
This would make sense.
It has to get to about 1190 and currently is at 1178. We may have had already at least a temporary bottom.
https://goldbugspray.blogspot.com/2016/12/where-are-reit-bugs.html
Another elusive creature…the Reit Bug.
Sold half EUR/USD position at 1.0688 plus 108 pips.
Among the miners it seems that GDX shows clearer a mini H&S inverted pattern with resistance at 20.13 which was the low on 11/14. Without considering undercuts and the ratio of gold/nugt at the high was about 42, yesterday it reached about 33. Though the market this time is very different than at the beginning of the year. The miners overall look like going up, though in contrast the inverse DUST is showing a wedge down. So today appears like a positive day. Good trading to all.
A big problem nowadays are the various funds that get blown out in one product and then scramble to exit another…So many charts nowadays look like “liquidation events” as opposed to earnest buying/selling. When I see the Russell 2000 shoot 16% higher in 2 weeks on a record 15-16 daily closes higher, it speaks volumes to how completely broken many aspects of these markets are…Given that there are cyclical aspects to this, it’s not completely surprising, but at the same time, many of these moves are “non-participatory” in any classic sense…No pullbacks, just vertical ramps to extreme levels of overbought (even historic records) before everything is unwound again…The trap’s get set due to the euphoric nature of rallies such as these (declines as well).
And let’s not forget crude this past week. 15% in 72 hours. Binary events galore.
Woah! bellwether aem in free fall.