266 thoughts on “THERE IS NO FREE LUNCH

    1. SLEP

      So hat Neumeyer jetzt verlauten lassen, er verfüge über Informationen, die in den nächsten Jahren einen sensationellen Silberpreisanstieg erwarten lassen.

      Auf 140 Dollar je Feinunze würden die Notierungen bis 2019 explodieren. Eine Verneunfachung des Preises.

      Behält der öffentlichkeitsbedachte Manager mit dem Dreitagebart recht, würde das bedeuten: Alle, die heute in Silber investieren, werden bald ziemlich reich sein.

      1. Pedestrian

        And via Google translate the above said:

        “Neumeyer has now announced that he has information that will lead to a sensational increase in silver prices over the next few years.

        At 140 dollars per ounce, the quotations would explode by 2019. A ninefold of the price.

        If the public-minded manager with the three-day beard is right, that would mean that all who invest in silver today will soon be quite rich”.

  1. bginvestor

    Well you have convinced me to not be in bonds.. lol

    Wake me up when it hits the bottom channel.. If building confluence of support, I will buy at that time..

    And even with bonds you need stops..

  2. Goild

    Gary,

    Thanks for today’ video.
    I beg your pardon.
    If you compare the bond chart against the NASDAQ chart the obvious conclusion is that if there is any bubble currently it is in the tech sector. The divergence with the averages in the NASDAQ is substantial and the peak is getting quite high.

    As per the bonds, looking at the yield chart for the 10 year UST, the only bubble I see in the bond market is around 1981 when interest rates peaked. Since then yield has being decreasing, and specially smooth in the recent years.
    Looking at the yield curve for the 10 years UST from 1944 when the yield was as low as it has been recently, the conclusion based in history is that we would see a smooth rise on the yield curve, which would be a smooth decrease in bond prices.

    “When everyone thinks alike no one is thinking”

    1. Gary Post author

      I would argue that bubbles are characterized by irrational behavior. If paying for the privilege of loaning a bankrupt country your money (negative interest rates) isn’t irrational then I have no idea what is.

  3. Goild

    Gary thanks for commenting. I will think about the negative interest rates argument.
    As a charting point it is useful to compare charts with their inverse charts for example NUGT and DUST; you may have mentioned this before.
    If one does it for USB then 1/USB does not look that unusual.

  4. GMoney

    On a related topic some imbecile on Seeking Alpha recently posted an article titled “Deficits Don’t Matter”. He even tried to argue that the federal deficit is a good thing. Articles like this are sign we are approaching the top.

    1. Pedestrian

      But he is right. Deficits don’t matter. Even debt up to a point does not matter. Too much is made of it because sovereign debts of reserve currency nations are nothing at all like household balance sheets. The truth is that debt can be almost unlimited as long as the reserve nation does not lose its status.

      1. GMoney

        If that is true then the USA has nothing to worry about. We have no Social Security problem, no Medicare problem no underfunded state pension problem, no entitlement problem, no student debt problem…… we can just print a several trillion in fiat and Shazam! our debts are gone!

      2. Gary Post author

        This is exactly what I’m talking about. Central banks, and even most economists truly believe that debt doesn’t matter.

        They believe in the free lunch theory.

        I suspect they will ultimately be proven wrong because the world really doesn’t work that way. When the bond bubble pops (whether is starting now, or sometime in the future) I suspect the free lunch theory will be shattered again.

        1. vin

          “ultimately”! In the mean time who have been told otherwise and who followed that well thought advise are lose their shirt, underwear and everything else.

          My jnug? Ohhhhhhhh! Ehhhhhh! Uhhhhh! Ouuuuuuuch!

        2. Pedestrian

          I agree with you guys.

          While debt does not matter under certain existing conditions and in theory anything can be afforded, in the bigger picture what is happening is that we are abusing our privilege of having the senior reserve currency status.

          That is only tolerable up to a point for the rest of the world who is i effect paying for this largesse. What accrues to one party represents a loss to another. So for example, if your intrinsic currency is factually worthless but you nonetheless use it to purchase goods and production of real value then you are taking a benefit at someone else’s expense.

          This system only works as long as the parties receiving the currency that is being offered are also able to freely spend it in the same manner the original buyer spent it into existence. Right now the entire world cooperates with the dollars hegemonic utility. But should a kink arise where dollars are no longer freely traded then the existing system is at risk of disintegration.

          War may create the circumstances where trade breaks down and exchange rates become too volatile for the comfort of both buyers and sellers such that alternatives are sought. We hope the US is not drawn into a war that leads ultimately to the loss of its senior status but as we know, history repeats and this time is probably no different.

          Between now and then the worlds major Central Banks are indeed in a position to buy up and then extinguish as much debt as they choose. All of it if necessary. They are also free to put on their balance sheets as many equities, properties or other assets (including gold) as they deem fit.

          There is a price to pay of course since such purchases are fairly transparent and complaints will eventually arise from other countries Central Banks who are not in such an envious position. Brazil and South Africa as two examples cannot do the same thing (buy unlimited amounts of their own debt and extinguish it).

          And it is because their home currencies are worth squat in the financial capitals of the world and nobody trades them despite the size of those economies. The same goes for India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and until very recently, even Chinese Yuan.

          For that matter, it is most of the world that is impacted. And that is who pays for the benefits that accrue to reserve currency nations such as Japan, The European Union and the US.

          That day of reckoning is further off than most here probably imagine though. It is questionable if the major Central Banks have yet crossed the line that would bring significant complaints from the rest of the worlds Central Bankers. But we are getting there bit by bit.

          Armstrong has written about this subject quite frequently and mentioned that come 2032 (?) the financial capital of the world will be shifting to Asia. I imagine that the only way such an event could take place is if dollars were no longer quite as important as they currently are.

          Much as Sterling lost its luster in the last century.

          So yes Gary. From 10,000 feet in the air…..there is no free lunch.

  5. zkotpen

    I now believe the the current “correction to the correction to the correction” is nearing its completion in gold and miners.

    I’m starting to see those divergences I so love on the (fibonacci) 89 month SMA.

  6. Dday

    I still believe the dollar is going to 120 and gold well below $1000, before there is any meaningful reversal. Yes gold will be a good bet sometime in the future, but know India is effectively outlawing holding gold for investment purposes how can it possibly hold up….The bond market will crash its a question of timing now or two years time?

  7. Mac

    Last time I’ll say it but if you trade based on charts then why keep guessing at narratives to explain a market that you don’t understand. Does anyone really believe that bond investors are so clueless that they will need to “finally come to their senses” to realize what’s going on? Do people have any idea why these investors buy bonds with negative yields or why they finally got spooked in November to dump bonds after years of being irrational. Obviously do whatever works for you but perhaps people need to consider that maybe you don’t quite understand what’s going on in the bond market. Just a thought.

    1. Gary Post author

      Of maybe traders are just in denial like they always are during the initial decline when a bubble pops…

      1. Mac

        In denial of what? Unless your trying to call the top of the bond bubble there is no reason to even form a conclusion yet.

        1. Pedestrian

          Mac, most bond buying outside of other governments is done by pension funds, insurance and other large capital pools that have more money than can be easily invested into equities and properties. They buy on a scheduled basis without a lot of regard to yield changes day to day. In the same way that pension funds have X number of billions to invest into stocks each month on their members behalf, this kind of money just keeps flowing. Its not Mom and Pop freaking out about a quarter point here and there. Its more akin to machinery that is running on autopilot. Its why some people now say that stock markets are almost immune to large unexpected corrections since the retail segment is now rather small (unlike what exists in China where it is the majority).

    2. vin

      Mac, those who have large amounts of money have no place to land their cash. Treasuries are one of the few “safe” refuges. They still earn some interest though little.

      It is way better than putting it under the mattress where it earns zero interest and is NOT secure.

      1. Mac

        This is exactly what I’m talking about when I say that people just make up narratives to explain what they think is going on.
        Vin, Are you sure you understand what negative rates means? What does it imply for investor’s interest and principal when you say that treasuries are “safe”? Is the decision really between a “little interest” or mattress money?
        Ped, agree that most bond holders are governments and institutional holders. But if the bond market works the way that you say then why would there ever be a trend change in the bond market? Why would the bond bubble ever burst? There clearly is enough discretionary money to change the trend so do you understand why and when that happens?
        Not to be a jerk but why just guess at an answer. If you are going to waste the time to follow the bond market and use it in your decision making then shouldn’t you make sure that you understand it. OK rant over and I’ll never bring it up again.

        1. Pedestrian

          No idea why the “bond bubble” would burst Mac. I am not in the camp that believes we are about to see a reversal of this multi decade trend nor in the camp that even calls this a bubble since I think that is a misnomer.

          If you are asking my opinion I would say that I think we will only emerge very gradually from this low rate environment and that there won’t be the fireworks some people presume.

          Debt gets bought at high rates and it gets bought at negative rates too.

          Hell, some recent issues at minuscule yield and long maturities are seriously oversubscribed. So I don’t get night sweats over any of this and don’t like to participate in the gloom-fest that accompanies the idea we are in a rate-reversal environment.

          For that matter, I might be among the very few that acknowledges the Fed and ECB are not even in control of rates as we do know these have been trending down for centuries already and it began well before those institutions were even conceived.

          So my point is that the sun will rise tomorrow just as it did today and we will survive a hike here and there just as we have in the past. And I will throw in my two bits on the topic when the opportunity arises if it seems interesting.

          1. Mac

            Got it Ped. Of course everyone is entitled to their opinion and can comment on anything that they want. I was merely suggesting that you and Vin consider some things that I didn’t think you considered in your responses. If you don’t think that my questions were relevant then just disregard them.

          2. Pedestrian

            No problem Mac. Good questions. We are all just speculating anyway. If there is one thing we all know its that the number of variables in play is so large and complex there is almost no chance anyone can accurately predict the future in detail. It’s interesting stuff to ponder on though.

        2. vin

          Intersting! Mac, Does 2.6% 10-year bond yield sounds like -ve interest rate to you? What do you base all these jokes on?

          1. Mac

            Vin, my comment was meant to be helpful and not an insult. I think too many people try to trade charts on short time frames but then try to justify their trades with long term fundamental rationale that they really don’t understand. I’m not sure what you were asking in your question but I assume that you aren’t interested in discussing any further.

  8. ocram

    GOLD up GDXJ down.
    Miners are weaker than gold,this is negative.
    There won’t be the same move of the last year,we are at the end of the year and there is no sign of an YCL in gold!

  9. jonsyl

    yes Gary, no sign of any correction. and proponents of scorch beginning since mid november and reaffirming with complete certainty as of friday, will likely have new reaffirmation again at higher levels for spx, and no doubt dollar. Won’t happen till trump cronies decide to do something stupid.

  10. jonsyl

    in the event healthcare/biotech upticks as a laggard this thing could accelerate into new year. shopping for bargains going to be the next likely mantra

  11. chrisG

    I can assure u guys, you all continue to follow Gary his possible bullish PM scenario only have yourselves to blame. He has been, and will be dead wrong. He dug a hole, and u guys willingly fall into it. I repeat, heck his all others crap indicators. PMs are highly technical. HS is clear, bottom will be tested. PM miners will go much lower

    1. Markab

      Hasn’t every leg down since mid-summer been an “undercut?” At this point, you’ve jumped out the plane, your parachute has failed to open and the reserve chute is all tangled up on deployment. The inevitable crash is dead ahead and the ground is rushing up quickly to meet you.

  12. Goild

    Hi guys, the gold/miners divergence I think is curing and so miners will met gold. It appears like an opportunity as it does not make sense. Miners tend to lag gold.

    I made already 1/2% of my account today and so I will not pay dues overtrading.
    Good trading to all!!!

  13. victor

    Guys, Pedestrian especially,
    Please consider your posts to be short and to the point. I stop reading Pedestrian’s essays long time ago, it just ridiculously long. I’m sure everyone just scroll down for long posts. Sorry for your efforts lost…

    1. Pedestrian

      Sorry. Cannot comply with that request. Go back to twitter if you don’t like it.
      (since your attention span is so short).

        1. Pedestrian

          No Victor. God made us all unique. There is no mold to put us all in, so to speak. And some of us were born in the days when information came from libraries (before TV), and are less impressed by information generated via the emotional spasms written by Pop singers who are high on crack. Back in the old days we used to remember our own phone numbers and those of our friends, by heart. Recently I was visiting a gal who had lost her I-phone and was plain helpless (and hysterical) because she did not know a single phone number by rote other than her own. I would like to say it was really funny but you know what?….it was actually sad. And that’s why Twitter is for Twits.

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    long GBPUSD @ 1.2416 –> ready to bounce in a new daily cycle – most likely to rise even more aggressively than EURUSD because EURGBP has to cater an undercut below 0.83.

    1. Pedestrian

      Back to gold for a moment. It really looks like it is F***ED for tomorrow.

      (is that short enough for you Victor?)

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        gold?!
        I think both gold and treasuries have bottomed together (YCLs) last week so that we should see them rise aggressively this week alongside JPY and VIX while stock market falls to DCL at some 2190 by Wednesday.

  15. Goild

    As for another item, note the inverse relationship between miners and SPY today.
    If it will hold for long it might be fantastic for gold.

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    Utility stocks are about to exhaust themselves this week while thrusting up to deliver the monthly swing low – they are already getting late in their daily cycle but they should be sold ONLY AFTER the that swing is rendered and VIX touches its 200dma, with the purpose of re-buying them close to New Year’s Eve in anticipation of the LARGE FLAMES OF THE SCORCH IN JAN.

    1. Pedestrian

      Of course you are correct. Today is key though because the BOJ monetary policy meeting and rate setting event is set for tonight so gold will be impacted. I think the news sends gold down. Ergo. no bounce (yet).

  17. bginvestor

    One of my rules.. don’t position before a huge event; especially in over night..

    Rumor is BOJ leave it the same; so maybe more of the same trend??

  18. Goild

    Well, well, well,

    Look at the daily gold candles…
    They are reminiscent of times when there is a big gap up…

  19. Steffmeister

    “Look at the daily gold candles…
    They are reminiscent of times when there is a big gap up…”

    Thumbs up Goild I like that 🙂

    We are in a mega triangle to be resolved soon, no more sideways. The probability for an upmove is 75% against 25% down, comforting isn’t it?

    The reason for the BONDS to correct is that Mother Natures own cycle has flipped, every xxYears mother natures cycle flips. We are out of the deflationary cycle heading towards a growth phase with mild inflation according to experts on the matter. I do not know about mild inflation to be honest I am seeing brutal inflation coming.

    1. Goild

      Steff,

      Good to hear your are optimistic on gold.
      I think that it will be a mild inflation.
      Interest rates go hand on hand with GDP and we have a modest so far GDP.
      The military budget is 0.6 trillion. A 1% of 20 trillion the FED owes, is 1/3 that budget. Not small potatoes.

  20. zbigkid

    This whole thing blows up, when mortgage rates get high enough to stop used and new home sales. Home prices have ‘recovered’, and then some substantially in most markets, but overall are still below their prior peak. They probably won’t reach their peak in most markets, while wildly exceeding prior peaks in absurd places like San Francisco.
    I don’t know whether that occurs, or whether yields on the 10 year need to reach 3, 4, 5 %, but in the meantime a whole lot of people with ARM’s, are going to be hurting big time until it gets to the final puke point.
    Then we will likely really see housing prices, and overall real estate prices totally collapse, and to remain suppressed for decades. Its amazing how the media, and all the pundits continue to ignore this one little forgotten thing, especially after what happened in 2007/2008. My own home price on Zillow, which I have tracked for years, has reached very near its prior peak, from approximately 10 years ago. We are upper midwest and pretty much over middle income, ($500k home) but far lower appreciation than the coasts have had. Of course our property taxes are nearly double what they were in 2003, so that’s probably typical for everyone else. So home values are artificially high (back to their old propped highs), while things like prop taxes, insurance have also gone up, which means the rental equivalent is stratospheric, and the portion of one’s income dedicated to housing is one of the highest ever in history. It’s everyone’s biggest cost, unless they are a millionaire, and even some millionaire’s have real estate that are too big for their pockets. After housing starts to fall again, This is when the dollar will plummet in earnest. The FED will be in a horrid position, not knowing whether to raise rates faster, or try to reflate this pig one last time. No matter what, the dollar this time, will stay in a death spiral, irrespective of what the Fed does.
    I probably re-fied for the last time ever, going for a 30 year, at 3.25%. My mortgage was not large, so the payments are only around $640. This period in time, may be the last time other people re-fi ever… at least for the next 20 years. That’s a significant loss of a ‘piggy-bank’, at a time when 10,000 boomers are retiring per day, and ‘downsizing’, or trying to, or worse remaining ‘stuck’ in an over-priced, over-sized home that few younger than them will be able to afford. I’d sell my home now, if I didn’t have 3 kids in HS or College. I’m probably going to miss this home’s peak value, and be forced to sell at a far lower price than it is today. The only thing I can hope is that my physical gold will appreciate enough to help compensate for the offset in housing paper ‘wealth.’

    1. Goild

      zbigkid,

      Thanks for sharing.

      A home also has other kinds of value?
      Don’t you have a lot of memories, friends around?
      What would you do with all your toys?

    1. Dday

      Take your time Goild. You might be right, this might be one fantastic bottoming opportunity, but on the other hand it might not. It won’t be resolved over one day…You seem in a rush, whereas gold has shown its not….

  21. Robert

    Gold not responding much to the assasination or the German accident. It looks like we will go lower again this week. I dont gold will rally probably till January as most big traders on holidays. So more pain for us. We cant even fill the gap at GDX 19.8 so lower is easier for now.

  22. Goild

    Today shows further shows the correlations between USD, TIP, GOLD, and miners.
    Gold follows more tips than affected by USD. Miners are hurt by USD and follow gold.

  23. Goild

    Looks like a good day for gold; miners will eventually follow.
    Hopefully the threatening USD will vanish down.

    I am done for the day. Have a great evening!

  24. realtrader

    Seems like everybody here is very much into the PM sector. Whatever Gary talks about, stocks or bonds or whatever, the discussion always comes back to the PM. 🙂

  25. Steffmeister

    Yepp realtrader just look at the background.

    The little bird whispered in my ear once again today, anyone interested to know the turnaround in Gold?

      1. Steffmeister

        Green of envy my little clueless friend Pedo?

        Steffmeister
        December 13, 2016 at 7:15 am
        The SMACK initiated ???

        “The Bird Whisperer” is telling the truth ?

        Pedestrian
        December 13, 2016 at 12:52 pm
        Where is the Bird writing these whispers? What site if you don’t mind me asking.

  26. Look2525

    I’m with Pedestrian, I just want to know whens that little bird shit’s on your shoulder. Then I’m buying.

    1. Steffmeister

      Well you just took a huge crap in the kitchen, go cleaning it up! No free lunch for you haha 😛

  27. Goild

    Dam! I may have done a mistake. I was taken a nap to wake up to see 15 minutes red candles going down.
    Did not think right, got scared, I dropped the shares. Wasn’t I working on discipline? Idiot!

  28. Look2525

    I listened to Gary’s Bond Video. He is absolutely right. It is just a matter of time.
    Time is the question.
    I remember when interest prime rates were 8% and blew up to 16% in a matter or six months. Gov’t couldn’t or didn’t stop it. In 6 months after that the rates went to 22% in September of 81.
    This is not going to end well. As we all know… timing is the question.
    Rates well be going up. But it won’t be on the governments accord.
    Gary said with hesitation that he believes this is the beginning of the pop.
    You have to give him credit for making a call. Sure I will go in with him.
    SA is at a channel bottom and I am in today for 30k at 7.75. I am in until it hits the daily channel top. Lets see.

    1. Goild

      Look2525,

      I am trying to glean your trading methodology. Thanks for the SA example.
      So you are in at 30k shares? Wow! Best wishes!!!
      What about the low volume, can you get in and out easily?

        1. Look2525

          Just Trend Lines. Probably around 9$ or so. I will know as the chart progress. But I will take it all out on the day before the RSI(2) hits 100 and then depending on the strength of the daily green candles get back in the next day or wait for the RSI(2) to stick bottom.
          Hopefully SA Plays nicely. It might go down a little first. I am comfortable with that.

      1. Look2525

        Yes, you have that right. Goild Not my favourite stock to play. Very little Margin
        And it spread is 5 cents. So you are out a fair amount on the purchase if you buy at market price. I should have gone to AG. Big Margin more liquid.
        I just like how SA lines up.

  29. jeffd5584

    The more I watch/”play” these markets, the more I am convinced that this current “squeeze” in various asset classes will simply resolve via another binary event down the road. It just seems to me that the only way to shake up the market ecosystem is to run these moves against the spec’s and/or get them completely herded onto one side of the market (anyone remember the record long S&P positions/record short VIX position in late August) before the one day plunge on 9/9…These markets no longer function for any form of “price discovery” (that is an antiquated term) that we lost sometime around the early 00’s when the activity CB’s decided they would brute force the market to fit the narrative. It’s also why I laugh out loud when I hear someone trying to decipher “inflation vs deflation” via some “signalling mechanism” implied in how various asset classes are performing. Seriously, this entire charade oscillates between hyper-inflation/deflation on a monthly basis. People view the buying panic in equities as some sort of hyperinflationary signal and then believe that they can just pile into precious metals since “equities are signalling” something…

    Nope, just more of the same, squeezing the majority of wrong footed players until they can’t take the pain any longer and flip the other direction, then the game shifts, rinse and repeat.

  30. jeffd5584

    Put up the analog of GLD from Oct 2012 thru June 2013…that is what it seems to be tracking. That would put another cycle low around the end of March.

  31. Look2525

    That being said, not sure how things are all connected together as I am a technical swing trader with no interest in trying to connect all the dots.
    Gee…. it’s hard enough just to follow the one hour ticks on 3 charts a day!
    And Steffmister.no big meani in my post above…. just having some fun.
    I am with you in the turnaround. Or I wouldn’t have bought SA today. Not good odds as Gld RSI(2) will strike 100 tomorrow. Hopefully it flattens.
    I just needed to laugh my ass of for a moment.

  32. Goild

    Look2525,
    Thanks for answering my questions.

    In a few minutes we will know about BOJ, and that should shape somehow tomorrow’s movement.

    1. Pedestrian

      It was a snooze. So now we know they are not going to rescue the Yen anytime soon and therefore momentum is still in the bears court for gold. T’is the season for thin trading though, so stay alert little Elves. We don’t really know if Santa is loaded for bear or just plain loaded on Scotch and his button pushing could get a little unpredictable if he keeps mixing his prescription meds with the holiday toddy. Odds would seem to favour the established downward direction though in the absence of a good reason for a trend reversal (of which we have exactly none other than gold is oversold) and secondly that gold was going up this time of year in 2015. How heartwarming. Maybe I can enjoy the season better by roasting my toes around that little gold-analog fire. Anything to improve my circulation. Me and Santa might just come to an understanding before year end. And all the better if he shares a few nips of that Scotch.

  33. zkotpen

    I can assure everybody: The low (so far) in GDX looks NOTHING like the January low.

    (Except for the fact that it was lower than the previous low, of course 🙂 )

  34. Pedestrian

    Platinum is setting up for a heart rending smash back to its bottom. It is still leading gold in my view. Should that chart follow through with a hard landing there is not going to be much hope for the rest of the metals sector this year and a brutal sell off that I have been predicting for the Junior miners will get underway in January.

    1. jeffd5584

      I haven’t seen anyone mention the 2012-13 analog for Gold and yet it looks damn near identical so far. Obviously the gold bears see the sort of carnage ahead that 12-13 brought open the metals, but the bulls still seem to be hanging on hope that this thing somehow finds a bottom down here.

      1. Pedestrian

        That’s bulls for ya. They almost always find the sunny side of even the worst set backs and come roaring back for more. God bless them or the rest of us would not have such easy pickings. I have never really understood them though. A few days back I was reading one analyst who found a single case where gold crashed this much and then recovered again. Guess that’s enough to keep the losers in the game for another inning. Just long enough so we can scalp them one last time before they capitulate and cash out. Which reminds me, this cycle count on gold is reeeeaaaally getting stretched. Should yield quite the fat pitch bounce once it finally exhausts itself. Not that anything will change in the larger picture. This gold pattern is destined to see lower lows so sell the rally’s boys. And don’t hold anything unless its a gift for the kids.

  35. Dday

    http://invst.ly/2y-56

    If this chart were gold were would you say it was going. Ignore the negative dollar bias, next resistance around 106. Macd crossed on the 16 year monthly, rsi looking like its going to spike. Dollar will be a good short at 120, IMHO.

  36. Goild

    Guys, thanks for drawing those insightful charts.
    Good very early morning !!!

    I always had slept very well, now I have raccoon eyes.
    Reading, writing here is as addicting as playing the market.

  37. Pedestrian

    As an aside on the Yen, Commercials have switched strongly net-long the Yen since the middle of last month and seem to believe it is going to bounce fairly soon. That should be telling us something about gold as well however if you look at gold they are still short. I think this will change fairly abruptly if the currency guys are right (and usually the currency traders make the call before the rest of the market catches on). The implication here is that gold will be heading north as soon as January although it does not tell us if that will have staying power.

    1. Goild

      Pedestrian,

      Thanks for the insights.
      One question is whether the original force driving gold down in 2015 is still in play, or there are new factors?

  38. Goild

    This 4% premarket drop in NUGT can become 8%-10% by 8 AM.

    The SM is up, the news are up for USD, likely not a good day for gold.

    We shall see.

    I may have to light a candle for gold…

  39. ARends

    As a would refer to myself as a novice trader and continually trying to learn diverse approaches on indicators and were surprised on what I have just seen. I think there will be a few people interested to determine a swing with how much volume tell you in volume spread. Here is a bit explaining it with a great bit of explaining https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2h3TDpIwuo.

    I have read all comments here over past months and have seen lots thrown around in arguments to bottoms. There is very little mentioned on volume and I just realised what a powerful tool and indicator it is for those who are not aware of the tell tale of what is actually happening and can be used in many instruments.

    1. Goild

      ARends,

      Yes there is little talk about volume. And yes, price, volume, and time periods are the most reliable indicators.

      There is much emphasis on learning Candle stick patterns, but not on learning volume patterns. Lots of money can be made by mastering both.

  40. chrisG

    Guys, silver new lows. It’s going below $15, ie, gold is going to die again. Seriously, u guys gotta know the poker terms, Know when to hold it, know when to Fold it. I am referring to when to hold a “guru”, vs fold a “guru”. Whoever that still tries to justify gold long…..u know what I mean. Those that need to listen to others to play the market, better wise up.

  41. ocram

    I’m tempting to sell all of my PM stocks.
    US dollar will go up to 120 and we are probably into a damn bear market again!!
    I’m full of anger because I would have not imagine such a tragedy after one of the strongest move in miners in history.
    Gary make an update soon please because things are getting nasty.

    1. vin

      gold down to 1128!
      That doesn’t look good at all. How low can it go? I still hold on to jnug!
      Any hope? Where are all the experts who are sure that any entry point is a good one because it is a bull market.

        1. vin

          Dday, I fully understand but I have lost so much that I don’t want to sell and take a loss. Thank you for your kind and honest advise.

  42. Goild

    In days like days a rule of thump is that the day bottom is about twice the premarket bottom.
    It may be at noon.

    1. ocram

      It could be the bottom but it also couldn’t be.
      Right now we are in a bear market and we are not able to see the end of it.
      This is even worse than last year because this is happening after one of the strongest move in miners EVER!
      Now miners are falling and are fast reaching the same valuations they had in december 2015.

  43. vin

    Jnug @3.80!
    Time to buy more.
    Gold is bull so any entry point is good. Those who did not buy two months ago must be feeling sorry. Me too. I bought it @4.65. Ouuuuuuuch!
    But, this is the time to buy more. Everyone is so negative. On can make a bundle by being a contrarian now. If I had not lost so much already I would be buying with both hands.

    1. ocram

      Gold is not in a bull market anymore Vin.
      I hoped that miners could resist but they are even weaker than gold itself now.
      Dollar up,bonds down,interest rates up this is one of the worst environment for PM!

  44. jonsyl

    the scorch continues and continues. dollar and vix telling the story. Hope springs eternal for the bears with simple notion that because it’s down, like gold, it has to go up.

  45. Steffmeister

    #Goild
    “I always had slept very well, now I have raccoon eyes.
    Reading, writing here is as addicting as playing the market”

    Haha yes I know the feeling, I just couldn’t resist to buy JNUG at 4.20, despite the little bird’s warning and here we are. It’s like a big red button with a text “DO NOT PRESS”

    1. vin

      Lucky you. I bought is @4.65. And, I had bought earlier at a higher price, and before I was short and made good money.

      1. Steffmeister

        The bird told me Gold is turning around after the weekend – Merry Christmas

        JNUG x10 here we come, The BRICS is just waiting to put the dollar to sleep in 2017.

        1. vin

          Merry Christmas to you, my friend. jnug @40 will be great.
          btw what is the name of your bird?
          I used to have one but it flew away.

          1. Steffmeister

            haha it aint a real bird, it’s one of the most skilled Gold analysts in the world.

            I have cat though a ragdoll American spieces great personality 🙂

    1. ocram

      The retracement from the top of the gold bull market in 1980 was much more than 50%.
      It went from 870 in 1980 to 250 in 2001 .

  46. chrisG

    Ocram, wise up. Dun listen to someone who has been so wrong recently. You want to listen to people who are more correct. Over here, you could several guys here who are pretty capable too. Don’t need to follow someone who is so damn out of form and still trying hard to make something stick

  47. Don

    Don’t sweat it my friends, Gary will be calling for a bottom in gold and a top in the dollar soon. He will continue to do so until traders get it right.

  48. Dday

    There is only one person you should be following and that is yourself. Learn how to read charts, cycles and technicals, read the news then base your investments on your own decisions.

  49. chrisG

    The greatest joke down the road is the proclaimed that gold will outperform oil down the road. That CRB previous rally led by oil, so now that CRB has bottomed, it’s going to be gold that lead tis time round. I can assure you,oil is heading to $70 ish at least. And oil and oil stocks is going to propel CRB , and they are going to outperform gold and miners big time.

    If Gary would wise up and admitted his oversight earlier, I would have respected him more. But….

    Guys, you need oil, steel etc for infrastructure spendings. You mean you can use gold , silver, and platinum to lay the roads, to tile bridges??? Lol

    1. ras

      There is no point in badgering any analyst who is marketing an advisory SM letter. No adviser asks anybody to follow him blindly. Everyone is responsible for his own actions. Everyone should read the standard disclaimer at the time of subscribing to any market letter. Nobody gets it right all the time.

  50. Mac

    If you use technical analysis there is no reason why anyone should have any exposure to gold. Looking at a daily, weekly or monthly gold chart, why would anyone have a position in it right now?

  51. Mac

    Why did bonds gap down on 9/9? How about on 10/27? What about 11/9? Did the dollar react the same on those days? Any noteworthy changes in market correlations?

  52. Goild

    The thing was the inconsistency between gold and tip.
    Much support was created for the miners and so it was a good bet to go long.
    Though this is a bad day for gold, I think.
    Good trading to all.

  53. michelle

    Gary has been getting everything wrong for months now. Do the opposite of what he says and you will do great. Market correcting to the upside and gold tanked. He is clueless.

    1. Pedestrian

      Oh come on Michelle! That is not true.

      Do I need to remind you that just a few months back we were at 98% bulls. You were one of them along with virtually everyone on this site. Not only that, the entirety of gold blogs and every analyst of any note was all on the same bullish page that gold was destined to go a lot higher.

      So Gary was in good company and hardly alone in his assessment.

      It’s easy to blame others when you lose money. But you know what? The final call was yours so stop dumping your junk on other people. Anyway, none of this surprises me. You guys are all ga-ga and hero worship when the market goes your way but you turn into sharks and vipers when it goes down.

      Same as always. You bugs never learn.

      I was on this site under another name earlier in the year warning people to be ready to get out and take profits because the major charts were quite clear that we were only experiencing a bear market rally. Did you listen to me then?

      Of course not. Almost every person here was dishing out shit instead of listening because most of you bugs are just pig headed and ignorant. You are certainly not willing to keep an open mind and consider alternative scenarios. So I went short all alone.

      And I don’t feel a lick of sympathy for even one of you. You earned your losses because of silly greed.

    1. Pedestrian

      I would not have down that. Nugt has been holding up well averaging 8 dollars a share since the 15th and may be bottoming. I am not 100% sure on that yet but it looks risky to take either side of the trade. Best of luck to you naturally because that was probably a tough call.

    2. Pedestrian

      Wait as second…up above you said you went long one lot of NUGT and now you bought short too? I am confused.

  54. Goild

    Pedestrian,

    Yes, I had to cover and reverse, so now I am adding cash.
    It seems that the bad day is turning a good day.

  55. Goild

    Sorry for the confusion.
    I sold the lot. then went short, and now I have no remedy but to get my original two lots.
    So currently I have two lots + $650 for my time today.

  56. Goild

    The straight averages lines going up for miners and about for TIP may indicate that some institutions are starting to put money on the table.

  57. stary

    Well I’m still Long SA at 7.75 Pedestrian. I’m not a gld bug.
    Just a guy playing the odds. One trade at at time.

    With regards to Michelle’s comments above.
    I don’t think Gary ever professed to be a clairvoyant.
    Hes, just a guy, with the guts to make a call based on his system.
    If you do not like what he has to offer.
    Go.
    Maybe you can find a wizard somewhere else.

  58. bginvestor

    JNUG formed a bullish wedge on the 15 min chart.. Going to see if breaks out today or tomorrow morning..

  59. Goild

    There is a change. Gold is inverse to USD.
    Miners, now appear to follow TIP.
    The previous correlations switched.
    The scenario is weird.
    What does it mean for tomorrow?

  60. Goild

    NUGT has touched two times the low $5.55 and these form a double bottom.
    The chances that tomorrow NUGT will get to back to $5.55 should be very small.
    May be we will see a gap up as the indicators are in divergence.

      1. Goild

        bginvestor,

        Hopefully so; all miners should go together.

        TNX has reversed, TIP just started, these are positively augural.

        1. Goild

          Further, it is not rare that after a positive day, another positive day follows.
          I think today is positive for the miners as they showed a lot of strength.

  61. Goild

    Mac

    “If you use technical analysis there is no reason why anyone should have any exposure to gold. Looking at a daily, weekly or monthly gold chart, why would anyone have a position in it right now?”

    The real fun and challenge is making money while it falls. Once it reverses one is on almost automatic gains.
    Also the trick to do is to be loaded with 3X leveraged shares.

    By the time the mac and so indicators tell is time, one has already missed some good money.
    And the grass is not greener elsewhere, or going short. or after the first bounce.

    1. Mac

      I’m assuming that you’re being sarcastic but I’m not sure. Trying to catch the exact bottom with a tripled leveraged fund is a horrible idea even if it happens to work out for you. Again do whatever works for you but for people who are new to trading that are reading this I would strongly recommend not doing this.

  62. stary

    I don’t know about that.
    But I know this. This type of activity just diverts me
    from the kinds of things I really want to do.
    It was short lived for me. But just the same.
    All the best to all!

  63. Gary Post author

    Folks miners are still up 62% so far this year even after a huge correction.

    XLE is up 32%.

    Energy stocks have virtually no chance of ever catching the miners.

    1. ras

      yes, very true, miners are still up after the ongoing correction process. The correction process is not done yet. Don’t want to speculate about energy stocks being able/unable to catch up with miners. During normal SM cycle, energy stocks tend to be the last sector to sizzle.

  64. chrisG

    I have just went to an eye surgeon to check my burning eyes. Bcos after so many weeks looking at the SM for the scorch, my eyes are scorched

  65. Goild

    Good morning.
    I will keep my mush as quite as I can today.
    Just got 1/2 lot of NUGT shares.
    I feel positive about today.
    Good trading to all.

  66. jonsyl

    deafening silence with chief market gurus alex and gary at the time of greatest need for the sheeple dependent on their every word. Suddenly all the hocum pocum professed with surgical accuracy for various market directions rendered as effective as a rubber crutch for those now most dependent on its guidance.

  67. Goild

    Added another 1/2 lot for a total of three lots.
    The NUGT volume so far is not small potatoes and this is a good
    indicator for the day.
    For me this is the time to add shares.
    However, be aware that a picayune bounce might be very well a trap, an over “cut.”

  68. Goild

    Good morning Dday.
    For NUGT it is clear that $5.55 is support. Once it goes through it I think the next level would be around $4.77. My buying decision for this morning lot are: 1) gold is up, 2) USD is down along with its news (i.e. profit taking). 3) the premarket volume looks good. 4) but most fundamentally TIP and TNX have turned around, 5) the NUGT dip to $6.05 offered a place to buy.

  69. Goild

    I should add, that if gold/nugt are really taking off, then I want to have as many shares as my stomach can be at ease with.

  70. Goild

    Dday,

    Yes, I do day trading as it makes money if oneself is under control and obeys the candles.
    I really do know about gold’s low. One needs to be very careful because it can easily go further down.
    However, there are credible signs that we are having some relief. But be aware of the bull trap, the over cut, or what I call the hooks, because they look like hooks and they really hook traders to loose.

  71. Steffmeister

    I promise you that the Bear has thrown it all against the Bull, even the kitschen sink, but the Bull is still standing. That is a VERY GOOD SIGN imo.

    wintersolstice paired with extreme geopolitical violence is when we see a bottom in gold.

    Happy Trading folks !

    1. Pedestrian

      Happy Trading?

      I don’t know how you can feel so positive. Bullishness on the markets is almost stupid. Maybe check the VIX because It’s back at 2007 levels and threatening to match the lows we saw nine years ago. No fear exists whatsoever. Complacency rules. (The Feds got your back!!).

      There is a little thing that happens repeatedly in markets though. When stocks get too high and oversold we see the VIX down in the basement and before you know it there is a big fat ugly reversal for both. I am not making any prediction here or anything but you know, what goes up comes down and vice-versa.

      And what bothers me is that when we get calendar changes it can often usher in a reversal of fortunes on markets. Especially at year ends or early in the beginning of each new calendar year. We see this readily on the VIX charts for the years 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015 and 2016.

      In other words, in 6 of the past 8 years we saw large spikes in volatility within the two months on each side of the years change. I suspect this time will be no different and all the more so because VIX itself has fallen to decades lows.

      This week we learned that Bill Gross, Jeff Gundlach and Mohammed El Erian are all saying they are going to cash. Hmm, I wonder why? Maybe the experts are sniffing out a stock market correction and just maybe they think it will be a memorable one so being on the sidelines for a bit might be good advice.

      So I should just get to my point.

      I have been following a few charts that are warning of a serious set back for mining stocks. Potentially very serious. But because gold has already fallen so low I don’t think this is a reflection of the metals market. What I think it is telling us is that the broad averages are staring down the barrel of a set-back and gold miners will just be collateral damage along the way.

      Anyone else here have any thoughts on this? Have you also been watching worrisome charts perhaps? Now, as the year end approaches and VIX looks like it may retest its 2007 lows is probably a good time to review your portfolio and perhaps get mentally prepared in the event things go South in 2017.

      1. Markab

        Ped,

        I appreciate your analysis…always well thought out. I’ve read the same pieces on money managers going to cash. But I remember seeing the same thing in the summer of 2009, after the S&P went from its 666 bottom to around 1,000…and the stories that were published at the same time stating that the “smart money” is getting out of the market. And the market powered higher, as it has done now for 8 straight years, without even a correction since 2011. Bill Gross has a horrible track record when it comes to forecasting bond and stock markets, at least in the intermediate term…he is almost as good as a contrarian indicator as Dennis Gartman is on short-term market action.

        Indeed, one would think that the battered PM sector would be due for a major bounce, it just isn’t happening. And really, a 30% increase in the price of gold in six months really isn’t anything that to me screams greed; certainly nothing like the 250% increase in the S&P since 2009. And yet the beat goes on…

        1. Pedestrian

          Thanks Markab. Well I got a goo laugh out of the Gartman comment. I recall the events back then well and I will admit I fell for the fear pandering and was hiding under my desk instead of buying with both hands when we saw that 666 bottom posted. Afterwards I had to ask myself what the hell I was thinking since it was such an obvious entry point. But I was a very novice trader at the time so I suppose that’s my best excuse. Where we are today though is kind of different. It is an oversold top rather than a bitter bottom so I am not sure we can compare the two periods. Anyway, I am still not great at picking corrections in the S&P so its not my area of specialty but I just felt like voicing an opinion on the obvious setup in play.

  72. Alexandru Popovici

    Stock market asks for a new high in NYSE (and SPX) before rolling over.
    The increase should be shallow and to meet strong selling on strength.
    I am waiting for it with my short [email protected] intact.

    1. Pedestrian

      Alexandru. I appreciate you are prepared for the scorched Earth event but I am not sure you caught my drift. The last time the VIX got this low we entered a period known as the Global Credit Crisis and life in the market became hell for the following 24 months. I have no idea what’s coming but these kinds of lows are maybe telling us the shit is probably going to hit the fan blades.

    2. bginvestor

      Alex, I’m on your side.. the short side that is.. very small positions right now (DOG) , but will build more if VIX is still maintaining or going stupid low in Jan…

      The price move is was just ridiculous..

  73. ted

    How long have you been talking about a scorch? I am schorched out. It’s nice to be long though, and ignore all the bearish pap.

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks Ted. That’s exactly the kind of sentiment we need to see to know that everyone is worn out with the bearish narrative and ready to see their portfolios obliterated again. It is complacency that leads to large events and I think you expressed that very nicely.

      1. Markab

        Ted has been a stock bug since I started reading this blog about 18 months ago. And he has been right on the money.

      2. ted

        Look at the sentiment on the NASDAQ in 1998-2000, and it went on a rocket ride during that time. We are nowhere near those sentiment levels. Believe me, when parabolia gets going the surprises will be on the upside. Even the bulls will be shocked!

  74. Markab

    I am of the thought that if there was even a 3-5% correction in the S&P that it would be met with screams from the population and Congress to “do something!” and the Federal Reserve would intervene. The exuberance/complacency I see today seems at least as much as it was in the late 1990s…and back then there was real technological innovation, very low unemployment, and a very high GDP. Even then, we had very sharp corrections of 10-20% routinely through the 1990s. This is a very different environment. The stock markets are being levitated up without corrections in an era of weak economic growth, stifling demographic trends, and relatively poor employment. I admit I don’t have a clue on things…the most analytical thought has defied me for years. All I know is that based on ANY valuation metric, the S&P is exceptionally overvalued and thus risky. But, an overvalued market can get even more so. And in this case, I tend to think it will get much more overvalued.

    1. Pedestrian

      You are echoing my own feelings. I can’t call this either so cannot make any predictions. And I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. Especially that the market is defying all expectations. But is there not a chance we might finally meet our Waterloo?

  75. dboz

    At this point it is a 100% certainty that NOTHING BAD IS GOING TO HAPPEN in the SM. 4-5 MAJOR events have occurred in the past 18 months and it barely flinched. Everyone KNOWS it will be saved regardless of the info or event. There is no risk. Only an idiot (looking in the mirror) would be buying safe haven assets in a risk on environment with ZERO risk. There is no news that is BAD NEWS for the SM.

    The only market that capsizes the boat when everyone is on one side is in PMs. Everyone is bullish the SM and it’s a non issue. Plenty of upside. 60% get bullish gold after a 30% PM price increase after a 4 year BRUTAL BEAR market beat down and it is a seismic market event that cannot sustain itself after a few piddly months. One and done up leg of a bull or bear market rally? Either way, I am toast.

    All you needed to see was the 800 point futures save on election night. A miracle happened, combined with a 327 billion dollar 8000 ton gold sell off (typical market behavior to sell 3 years annual production in one night), it was two birds with one stone. One 30 minute speech changed history, so we are told. Makes you wonder how stupid the current admin must feel that is was just that simple to save the world?

    1. Markab

      DBoz,

      I couldn’t have said it better myself. A 30% increase in gold spot price after a 4-year beatdown is not greed, yet it is not sustainable for more than a few months. In contrast, a 250% increase in the S&P that is smack with greed somehow is sustainable. If the stock market drops by 1% (200 points on the Dow now), it is immediately rescued.

      The old phrase “buy the dip” isn’t even relevant in the SM anymore. There is no dip to buy. Meanwhile, in the PM complex, almost EVERY day is down. Even after losing 20% over the last few months, every PM bull breathes a sigh of relief when gold is only down $5-10 / day, rather than the $25-35 down / day that has become common.

      Gary has been incredibly quiet through all this. I don’t blame him. Every technical analysis on gold has failed to the downside. Every technical analysis on the stock market and USD has failed to the upside. There is no “baby bull” in PM spot price. If you don’t believe that, look at Platinum, better yet look at Rhodium, down a stunning 94% from its 2008 highs and, more importantly, trading at an inflation-adjusted price of about 10% from its average in the 1980s/90s.

  76. jeffd5584

    Odds are pretty strong that 2280 SPX and 1385+ RUT are significant tops. The sentiment and over the top call buying just put the icing on the cake. For all of this chatter about cycle analysis, I rarely see any meaningful cycle analysis on this site. Take a look at weekly charts going back to the March 2009 lows and figure out the weekly cycles in the markets. The weekly bar of the FOMC decision last week was very significant from a cyclic perspective.

  77. bginvestor

    The risk/reward is building for a short in the SM.. The VIX is crazy, crazy low; history suggests that it won’t stay there! ha!

    1. jeffd5584

      Basically, the stock market launches out of its ICL’s in a binary style event towards its price objectives in a very short time span. Then it can spend weeks in a compressed range while the bullish sentiment builds and the call buying goes parabolic. It did that for two months from July-September. This time around I believe the quad-witching unleashed some more upside with a well orchestrated type squeeze.

      I keep pointing to the Russell 2000 chart. Anyone with some market experience should be able to decipher between a “bullish move off the lows” (say Feb 2016 or Mar 2009) and a “blow off terminal move”. The tape painting style off that move into channel resistance speaks volumes. Speculative longs hit records not seen in who knows how long.

  78. Goild

    Well it has been a difficult day today.
    I am done today.
    Despite all the pessimism I am leaving for good my two NUGT lots.
    I cashed today $725.
    The picayune candles so far this week are even more picayune than when NUGT was around $8.
    I would not count for sure with another gold’s drop so soon without some relief or a hook.

    Today is our anniversary and now we are going for a nice meal to a Italian restaurant.
    Good trading to all.

  79. jonsyl

    no point in this guessing game. this will end badly as most are convinced the fed and now trump cronies will not permit the market to collapse. Vix is a chief indicator to this fact. No need for any insurance for the downside. However, the turn will be visible as the rush to exits will be clear yet not believed. Most remaining bears holding out hope for early january but this is far from assured. We have yet to see the biotechs and tech sector laggards to have their time which will give impetus to the rally. For now some day trading the daily extremes might benefit the nimble all day watchers.

    1. Pedestrian

      No need for insurance? Usually when nobody wants it is when you should consider buying. Especially when it gets so cheap. Don’t forget Jonsyl that 2016 will be posting an outside reversal YEAR on the S&P….. Something it has not done for a very long time. For those not familiar, a outside year is one where the index falls below the prior years low and then also went higher than the prior years high. It is an unusual situation and one that bears monitoring. And oddly enough its an indicator that has gotten just about zero attention. Go check the weekly chart to see what I mean.

      1. Pedestrian

        NASDAQ and RUSSELL also posting outside years. But not the DOW so we have a non-confirmation there. Curiously the NYSE has come to within just two points of posting a similar “outside year” but could not quite get there. Maybe that’s the signal we should be watching for.

    1. Goild

      Steff,

      Thanks for bringing attention to Pento.

      I my view he is dead wrong on the bond ‘bubble.”
      The incipient bond “bubble” in the charts is nothing than a charting artifact.
      People without a math background can be mislead by charts.
      One way to look at the bonds is using the yield curve or inverse of the bonds price.
      Then everything is smooth. Most importantly the FOMC controls the bonds; no way they will allow for chaos.

  80. TraderPete

    Now that Harry Dent is bullish on stocks, we should now see a major correction in the stock market and a major rally in the gold market.

  81. Spanky

    Does anyone really believe the Fed (or the BoJ) won’t drop rates and institute whatever it has to to keep markets propped up???

    Sure, we might get a 5% correction or a drop to the 20 WMA. But your max risk probably isn’t more than 10%. And the corrections are totally orchestrated. When the DOW hits 30,000 maybe the fed will allow an 8% correction and 1 year sideways consolidation.

    Yes, you may have to wait for consolidations to end, but if you have more than a 1 year time horizon and the worst timing ever, you are still guaranteed profits.

    Am I invested in the stock market? No. The Fed has created an evil dynamic like never before seen. Completely immoral. This is not even speculating. It is looting. It is the greatest moral hazard I believe in the history of mankind. I am dead serious.

    The Fed literally has your back, and if they don’t, they know the walls come tumbling down on their little game.

    1. bginvestor

      Spank, I don’t get it.. if you have such strong convictions in your statement, why wouldn’t u invest and make the $$ in SM since you feel it’s low risk..??

      Sure, she could be a little bitch , but she can still pleasure u.. (sorry, bad example)

    2. Goild

      Spanky,

      With the low yields the bond market is not a threat at all to the SM.
      The SM is on runaway mode currently. Though as Gary points out, ‘there is no free lunch.’

    3. vin

      Thank you, Spanky. This is exactly how I feel. But, I am not going to miss an opportunity if I can make a penny.

      Secondly, the fed has started to feel the heat on the future inflation increases and that is why they have made a token increase in fed and overnight rates. The reaction in the bond market was unexpected. They will have problems raising fed rates much higher from here on. They will try to talk it “up”.

      From here onward it ain’t going to be that easy for them. Interesting times are upon us. Are you ready?

  82. tulip

    I just tuned in ker report and tuned right out.
    Al & c are the 2 stupidest individuals on the scene.
    Unbelievable.

    1. Pedestrian

      They are not stupid Tulip but they are lapdogs for the mining industry and their bread and butter comes not from being objective about the precious meals outlook but rather by trying to put as positive a spin on the business as possible without looking like obvious sell-outs. Al is well connected in the industry and Cory is working his way up. You might call them elitists because they are the media side of the business and there is a place for them to represent the interests of their paid sponsors. That’s just the way it is. Don’t expect anything more.

  83. zkotpen

    Both gold & miners seem to have been stopped in their tracks at their respective 5 day SMA’s so far…

  84. Dday

    Gold and dollar just seem to be biding their time. Gold couldn’t make it to the $1144 yesterday with dollar weakness. I’m looking at $1124/$1144 for next direction indication.

  85. zkotpen

    Alex,

    Wie g8’s m8?

    Just wanted to point out a book I picked up last week — the only book about trading I have ever read. (I prefer the audio version).

    Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas.

    It’s not about market analysis — quite the contrary.

    It’s about deactivating bias, thinking probablistically, and realizing that nothing is ever certain.

    It will blow your mind, as it has mine!

    Cheers!

  86. Goild

    zkotpen

    I have a wide collection of books including Douglas one; actually he as a couple.
    While for general knowledge some are excellent; I have found, especially for day trading where one is tested in many different ways, that doing the Ben Franklin method is best. This is, find out the weeds, lists them, and then tackle them once at a time. Here in trading one builds bad habits at first, to get rid of them later is very challenging, as when they are repeated they become more and more ingrained.

  87. dboz

    I picked some up recently.

    The dollar bull is now just about 2 months shy of the all time record length.

  88. Goild

    Thanks. I will get some.
    It is interesting to compare the long term charts for gold, silver, and platinum.
    It seems that gold was under valued and that explains the sharp rise it had.
    The three charts also make a case against gold $900/$1000.

  89. Goild

    The platinum and silver dip early in the year may also indicate a extreme sell-off early in the year, and so we might be near gold’s bottom.

  90. Dday

    Just my take on the pm’s. I think the monthly technicals show we are not in the same situation as last year.

    http://invst.ly/2zj5a

    Macd had bottomed December and was heading for a crossover, same as stoch .
    This December MACD looks like its topped and heading down for a negative cross(and take a look at the histogram). Also stoch and tsi look weak in comparison with last year. I see the same for all pm monthly charts.

    1. Mac

      I’m not suggesting to be bullish here but this is what most retests will look like just on shorter time frames.

        1. Mac

          I don’t try to catch bottoms so that one is past my pay grade. I’d much rather wait and buy 30% higher once my indicators confirm a trend change

  91. Dday

    Not much resistance on the dollar till 106. I think pm’s and dollar are trading in a tight range because we are approaching holidays. I expect the next moves to happen after new year.

  92. Goild

    I guess one way to put it is that the technicals also bear on the sentiment as a lot of people relay on
    the technicals they would not jump until the technicals say go ahead?

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