Monthly Archives: December 2016

TRY AGAIN ON THE NEXT SET UP

Well we lost 16 cents on our latest long position in GDX. That’s less than 1% so no serious damage. Almost 3% if one was trading a triple fund. But still nothing serious. 

At this point pretty much all the negative news is out. 

So I’ll try again once gold gives me another potential setup, either a reversal candle, or a swing low. Sooner or later one of these setups will turn into the yearly cycle low and we’ll get a nice rally. For now I’m back on the sidelines and waiting. 
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SENTIMENT AT EXTREMES

The 20 day moving average for sentiment in GLD is now at levels that have only occurred twice in the last 11 years. Once very near the bottom in 2008, and also at the D-wave bottom in 2006.

When sentiment gets this bearish the odds favor a contrarian trade.

The direction for gold in the very short term may be hard to predict, but the direction over the next 2-3 months should be very easy to predict.

History says gold will be much higher 2-3 months from now.

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