Well we lost 16 cents on our latest long position in GDX. That’s less than 1% so no serious damage. Almost 3% if one was trading a triple fund. But still nothing serious. 

At this point pretty much all the negative news is out. 

So I’ll try again once gold gives me another potential setup, either a reversal candle, or a swing low. Sooner or later one of these setups will turn into the yearly cycle low and we’ll get a nice rally. For now I’m back on the sidelines and waiting. 
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107 thoughts on “TRY AGAIN ON THE NEXT SET UP

  1. tater123

    The poor saps who held since summer who were down huge when you decided to begin using stops are in a world of hurt. Thankfully for them we should see 1400’s early 2017

    1. Gary Post author

      We never got an opportunity to use stops as the break on Oct. 4th came premarket. Until then no DCL’s had been broken so there was no signal to stop out.

      We managed to sell into the bounce in Oct. when the 1275 stop was hit.

      We’ll try again once we get another setup. Even in bear markets (I’m not convinced this is a bear market) there are violent counter trend rallies.

  2. Goild

    I got a first lot of NUGT shares today at $6.68 a share (using today’s profit).
    Yes, it can go further down, but that elastic band is very much stretched.
    Tracing a line from July’s peak to today’s price, it crosses the monthly averages about half way; this is equal amounts of stretching in either way.
    Gold is 9% percent up from the low of $1050. This low was quite an extreme when oil was stretched way too far. Take into consideration say 4% real inflation this year and we are just 5% over the $1050 low.
    The miners are in disagreement with gold, they have not quite broken support. And they have been very reluctant to go down. Today we had perhaps the largest volume in NUGT history.
    Gold starts to look now as a very good deal. The institutional players, may soon start getting it.
    I take it that the manipulators on 9th/11 and the following days are not behind today’s drop. I think today’s drop is due to something else, like the misunderstanding on how gold works with interest rates and fear.
    Many say Gary is wrong. But I believe and agree with him, we are in a gold Bull market.
    Praise to Gary for his web site and hard work in it.
    Ras has sound good advice: do not try to pick up the bottom. Why am I getting in?
    Hate to miss the bounce, and psychologically it is easier to add shares as it goes up.
    Do you thing the manipulators will let you go with riches that easily, no way.
    They still have work to do, but it is ending, I think.
    “You know, it is a bull market”

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t really seen much evidence of manipulation during this decline. The banks got caught and are paying fines. That may put an end to most of the manipulation in the metals.

  3. Goild

    Gary, people who really know this business and are in control new for a matter of fact that TIP and TMF (i.e. whatever is behind these funds, bonds etc.) were going down, gold along with them, the volume at the open was increased to prep the drop. This is manipulation at the middle level; at the low level and as a day trader manipulation is exercised every so often during the day, before it goes up, it first drops to produce fear. At the high level, manipulation/influencing, was clearly seen on 9th/11 in the drop of TIP, TMF, GOLD, and the miners, and of course the reversal of SM. Perhaps there are different views of what is manipulation. Is all about money and getting the maximum amount possible at every step. The market is relentless.

    1. Gary Post author

      The stock market is certainly manipulated to a huge degree. The 180 on election night was one of the more blatant examples I’ve ever seen.

      But I haven’t seen many of the huge contract dumps in the premarket like we were getting before. The banks got caught red handed. If they continue it may be jail time the next time they get caught.

  4. Goild is changing its story about gold, now it reads:

    “Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation historically.”

    Before it was posted that high interest rates make gold less attractive for investors.

  5. Steffmeister

    Rising interest rates is a must for the Gold Bull. A clever man wrote in January 2013:

    “Now I expect that interest rates will go negative before TPTB throw the towel into the PM ring. But that time is relatively close. It seems clear that the beginning of the next PM bull will be simultaneous with a rise in interest rates. Now if the Japanese screw with the JGB, and manage to torpedo world bond markets, this will set a few big dominoes crashing against each other, and when it comes home to the dollar bonds they will start falling. But it doesn’t have to be the Japanese that set it off. I do think however that bond yields are the key to the lock of our PM treasure box”

    I live in Sweden and we got negative interest rates since a year and a half back. Earlier than that neg. interest rates was unheard of. Note also we need rising yields for bonds, we got that too. 2017 is going to be a very interesting year imo 🙂

  6. Dday

    Here’s the thing you can’t ignore, the dollar. It has broken resistance yet again

    If this were a gold chart, where would it be going? There has and always be a bearish bias from gold bulls towards the dollar. If it gets to 120 then maybe bearish.

  7. Dday

    So where is your line in the sand for gold. You have been stating gold is in a baby bull, for the last year, at what point would you abandon that theory?

    1. Bv

      It would be nice if you answered Dday on this one Gary. Where is the line in the sand for gold? Like you said & a lot of people have pointed out, the dollar is relentless and you would consider turning bullish on gold if the index went over 100. I finally threw in the towel today and sold all my miners. I’ve still made a good profit on them but this unremitting rise of the Greenback has got to me.

      1. Pedestrian

        Is it worth asking BV? Gold is already down 250 dollar since its peak in July. In other words we have lost some 75% of the gain in gold for the year which is ample enough proof for most people that all we saw was a bear market rally off a continuing secular bear.

        A rare few people identified it as such way back in January if you can believe that is even possible. Tom Woods was one of them ( He stated that the January rally would retrace all the way back back to its roots at 1050. An amazing call in retrospect so he is a guy worth listening too. What can Gary possibly say now except the market did not play out as he expected?

        Gold stocks on the other hand are a little more resilient and seem to want to find a bottom. So its not a complete write off if you were invested in mine shares but its still painful if you saw 60% or more of your profits lost.

        Let this be a reminder to everyone here that “buy and hold” does not pay anymore.
        If you make a terrific gain then take some damned chips off the table!!!!

        1. lowcarb

          yes but tim wood also said that once the decline ends either at 1045 or preferably a little lower will get a big bull starting

          1. Pedestrian

            Yes, that is the idea that there will be a double bottom at 1040 or thereabouts. My point is that Woods was virtually alone in making the call that the whole rally was going to be nothing more than a dead cat bounce.

            Don’t you think that is rather remarkable? Nobody else said that. And how did he know at a time when miners were soaring? Bullishness was almost literally 100% at the time but the guy stuck to his guns against the herd. I imagine he got out at the top and made money but have no way of knowing.

        1. Markab

          WHEN gold breaks last years low, not if. And the way gold has been falling, that will likely happen before the end of the year. RIP Baby Bull. Hello three digit gold.

    1. Dday

      Which means gold will continue to go down. I think a realistic target if the gold and dollar monthly macd and histograms play out is.

      September 2017 dollar 120(thereabouts)/ Gold $700-$900

  8. Pedestrian

    The gold murder continues for a second day. I suppose we should not doubt we see a 100% price retrace of the entire “Baby Bull” which means in other words it was not a bull market at all. Can we please discard the Old Turkey philosophy now and substitute it with Cold Turkey instead?

    I am getting out today!!!!! Frick, it ain’t worth the pain.

  9. chrisG

    I am so glad I got out early yesterday when I saw weakness. Else more pain today. Yes, bloody cold turkey!!!!

  10. Steffmeister

    VAP is looking very bearish for Gold, but we’ve been beaten down for many months now, 1130ish is the line in the sand imo, if it breaks 1130 then it will take some time to get back up.

    I really really hope that 1130 holds, Gold has tested 1135 twice by now. .. this reminds me of the movie “The Mist” by Stephen King 😛

    1. Dday

      Silver has crashed through $16.66, this is bad. No silver lining!!! pardon the pun. Support at $16.25…

  11. chrisG

    Yes. Gold rush!!! Rush down.

    If gold really breaks 1000, dollar power up, SM power up, don’t criticize him being lousy. It’s you people who are lousy who doesn’t know how to read his information. Yes, he is sometimes ambiguous. But so are many others. He is very clear at times. It’s just that people choose to ignore

  12. Dday

    Heres the silver daily. MACD about to cross, stoch/rsi bearish. Don’t get hopes up for any reversal here.

    On the monthly silver lagging gold slightly, all the talk is that silver has bottomed. To me this is very questionable. MACD crossing, rsi/stoch/tsi bearish. Nothing to suggest a reversal over the next several months. I lost a packet listening to gold bugs in 2011/2012. I have no subscribers, just saying what i see in the charts….. only possibilities

  13. Dday

    I’m thinking gold will possibly fall to $1124 when US opens. If thats the case I can see much support all the way down to $1040.

  14. chrisG

    Silver!!!! I think it’s likely gold see $50 plunge. 1110 ish today. Remember, fed wasn’t very hawkish. Only a 0.25% can cause a plunge. You know gold is in big trouble

  15. dboz

    Came into gold and silver to dodge a market crash earlier this year. Low and behold, I missed the SM run up and ended up in the crash. The irony.

  16. chrisG

    Uh oh. I just realized , if they don’t turn silver around today, we are staring at $11 to $13 down the road.

  17. Dday

    Good luck and best wishes out there to anyone who got caught by the gold bug. Its difficult decision on days like this, but bear in mind this happened four years ago.

  18. zkotpen

    Oct 7: Intermediate low in gold.

    Nov 9: Intermediate top in gold.

    Nov 14: DCL in gold

    Nov 16: DCH in gold

    1. Gary Post author

      Nov. 14 can’t be a DCL in gold. The bounce didn’t even close above the 10 DMA. A DCL should not only close above the 10, it should turn it back up.

      Gold is on day 48 of its current daily cycle. It’s been averaging about 45 days for the last daily cycle into ICL’s. So a little long but not extremely out of the ordinary.

      But I will say it looks like it’s going to waterfall down to test last years lows.

      Staying on the sidelines until I see something that looks like a possible bottom.

  19. Dday

    So i’m not really familiar with cycle theory is the thinking that a reversal has to occur at the beginning of a new cycle? Or can a new cycle continue in the same direction ie down?

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    It is good to see USX and stocks on negative correlation yesterday and today!
    It is a feature of Kondratieff springs, summers and autumns for the two to be generally positively correlated (and negatively during K-winter) with short periods of negative correlations.

    Now the USD-Stocks couple have taken their time off on a negative correlation meaning that in just a matter of few days they will get back entrenched in their usual positive correlation –> i.e. BOTH USD AND STOCKS DOWN AS USD STARTS ITS I.C. DECLINE (the pinnacle of The ongoing Scorch – started on NOV14 when Utilities bottomed).

  21. Dday

    “…If gold breaks last years low then I’d have to say the bull is already over.”

    Thanks for your answer…

  22. Goild

    Early in the year the undercut pain exercised by the miners can be estimated to be about ~32%.
    For NUGT it means going to $5.8. I might get a second lot then.
    Good trading to all.

  23. Look2525

    I have determined that ETF’s are not worth playing. Period.
    The decay is huge on the 3x etfs. If you get caught in a play. Almost impossible to get out without losing. Few come backs.
    Just look at the long term chart on jnug to see decay.
    Besides no margin. Yet 3x margin on most large cap.
    Winning/Losing power is the same.

    I agree with Gary, if you want to go Gld etc.
    Take a shot with a tight stop.

    I paid the price years ago. Man did I pay the price.
    Gld and miners are no different than any other stock.

    ….. and I won’t be caught star gazing again.

    Because By the time those kinds of stocks hit the stars I have being so tramatized by the down motion that I am out on the first up.

    For my style of play, If the price is not above the weekly EMA(9) in an uptrend.
    I don’t even look at it.

  24. Trend Trader BH

    Look2525 – Excellent post! My past experience parallels yours (AGQ did me in years ago). “If the price is not above the weekly EMA(9) in an uptrend. I don’t even look at it.” – this is also great advice old and new traders should heed. Like, like, like.

  25. Pedestrian

    When I reflect back on all the hubris and horseshit spewed by the pumped-up chest-pounding gold bugs all this year I really have to pause and laugh out loud. They were SO convincing all the while they were on the right side of the trade but so full of hot air at the end of the day. And all that blather about snagging 10 baggers and how clever they were buying this or that stock which had all been carefully researched beforehand (naturally!) because you know they are all so smart.

    But Holy Jesus did they ever screw up in the big picture and get it wrong.

    Got to do your own analysis. Trust nobody and especially all the overconfident BS that clutters every gold blog. These guys like so many others are running on pure hype, hope, speculation and adrenaline. They are not really analysts at all and certainly not fit to dispense advice to anybody else.

    The really comedic part of it all though is that to a last man almost every famous gold analyst was on the same page. You just name one. I guarantee you he was among the pumpers and promoters pushing metals. Schiff comes to mind. There are 100 more like him. You know their names too. So what makes me laugh so hard is this;


    None of them really had a clue. All hot air and chicken feathers. I can think of exactly two people who called BS on this mini gold bull right from the outset. One was Tom Woods from Cyclesman and the other was Birdman over at Kereport.

    But they kicked his ass off the site for being correct on gold all the time.

    Too fricking funny for words man!

    1. Markab

      OK Ped, since you’re so wise…how high does the stock market go in 2017? I hear lots of people laughing about the never-ending rise and stock bugs have already enjoyed a 3.5x increase since the low with virtually no pullback. So how high on the S&P this year?

    2. Bv

      In my case holding old Turkey, would have been (and might still of be) my best strategy. I put all my eggs in one basket (I know, I know, you should never do this) and bought 2 companies on the LSE, Centamin (CEY) @ 60p and Hochschild (HOC) @ 55p. I sold both around 90p, expecting a pullback (as Gary kept saying, no blame on Gary) but in the case of HOC it never really happened. I re-bought HOC @ 187 & CEY @ 120, then a few more @ 257 & 143 respectively. HOC went as high as 327, CEY, 183. I sold today CEY @ 125 & HOC @ 230. I would of made a stack more if I’d of just sat & held from my original investment even with what is going on now – HOC is being incredibly resistant despite what is going on around it & holding around 230, CEY suffering a bit & down to 117. I like both companies & will keep an eye on things.

  26. Look2525

    Over time I have found it a pleasure to read Alexandru Popovici posts.
    I don’t follow all of his reasoning as those are not part of my methodologies.
    I do however like how he makes his points and predictions.
    What I appreciate most is his Positive Style!

  27. Markab

    Tim woods said the following about the US stock market at the end of 2010:

    “The rally out of the March 2009 low has been a bear market rally within the context of a much longer-term secular bear market that has not yet run its course. ”

    He said there would be lower lows in the SM below the March 2009 low. Obviously he is wrong too. So much for your hero, Ped.

    1. Markab

      And, reading Woods’ current (late summer 2016) commentary, he is still convinced that all of the stock market’s gains since 2009 will be given up. What a putz!

      1. Pedestrian

        So what? He was spot on when it came to gold. Maybe it’s his specialty.

        What was your gold prediction Mark?

        Oh wait, let me guess. To da moon?

        Gold bugs are such losers!

  28. Goild

    This is also excellent advice from Look2525

    “For my style of play, If the price is not above the weekly EMA(9) in an uptrend.
    I don’t even look at it.”

    Recall that it is known that successful fund managers only but those stocks that are making new highs.

  29. vin

    Gary is 100% right. Gold at this stage looks ugly but it is still a bull. I find Gary is an excellent analyst though like any other analyst he is NOT always right.

    I am thankful to him for his advise even though I have lost a bundle following him. That is not an issue. I made a decision which was wrong. The issue is Gary gets too stuck to his point, sometimes almost touching arrogance . For example, his overconfidence that those who weren’t buying at a certain point would repent after “two months”. His wordings were quite insulting to those who thought otherwise. So, from that point of view I am glad that he has been humbled.

    On Tuesday I went again into jnug @6.54 and …. OUCH! Wrong timing! And, wrong timing in junior gold 3X …… OUUUUUCH.

    I haven’t sold it yet and I am considering breaking all investment rules by buying some more to average down. That is how confident I am in Gary’s opinion.

    Better luck next time, Gary.

    1. vin

      So, far I have made money by being a contrarian to what Gary has predicted but I don’t consider that a reflection on his analysis. It just happened. He is not always right. But, I respect his analysis. NO ONE can predict the future. We can only extrapolate the past experiences. And, Gary is wonderful in doing that.

  30. Spanky

    Once the 10 year yield gets close to 3%, they will let the stock market correct 3-5%, which will of course cause yield to crash through the floor.

    All markets are being beautifully managed to keep a bid under US stocks and a lid on commodity prices and bond yields–primarily through the yen carry trade. The CBs are all powerful. You literally cannot fight them. I think the yen cross is going to 200 on this next leg down for the yen. The us stock market is headed much much higher. Just BTFD.

    1. vin

      Spanky, why will “cause yield to crash through the floor”? I would have said crossing 3% (upward) will be a point of no return, unless they bring extraordinary amount of QE. And at a time when inflation expectations are rising, can they really do that?

  31. Alexandru Popovici

    watch GBPUSD! It must resume higher at any moment – GBP will lead all other USD pairs in heralding the intermediary cycle decline for USD.

      1. vin

        Alexandru, what are your views on interest rates, in particular 10 year US treasuries. Can they go as high 5% by 2018?

  32. Spanky

    If you can’t articulate a bullish thesis for yen, then you can’t be bullish on $gold. Period. The CBS have made clear that the absolute quantity of currency is meaningless. All that matter is the flow of currencies from one to the other. The Fed has tripled its balance sheet and gold has gone nowhere. The reason? The BoJ has blown up its balance sheet even more. And it looks like on the CBs known when enough will be enough. Just buy US stocks. You will never ever suffer more than a 3-5% drawdown, even if you just buy tops.

  33. ocram

    Unbeleviable…….we are in the same period of the last year with the same apocalictic vision about gold.
    But this time I don’t think there will be a saviour,even Gary was more confident last year about a quick reversal in PM,and he was quite right!
    I feel he doesn’t think the same today,he is starting to be scared because nobody had imagined such a downside move after the huge upside from january.
    Anyway the HUGE move was in the PM stocks and NOT in gold,gold just made a little move from around 1050 to 1350 .
    My only hope,at this moment ,is that we are NOT in a new bull market in gold but in a possible new bull market in PM stocks (it did happen in the past).
    Gold could still be in a bear market and PM stocks can experience a short bull market (it happened in the 90’s).
    What do Gary thinks about this probability?

    1. ras

      Some analysts like Thorson were very clear about a complete retrace. I t is not productive to follow any analyst blindly without individual due diligence. Gary is a talented analyst. But, he does not control the market, nobody does. Nobody gets it right all the time. Sometimes, what seemed to work stops working for a while. That is the nature of the market. There is no point in blaming any analyst.

      Dr. Alexander Elder of Elder impulse chart fame who happens to be also a trained psychologist makes the following observations in his trading manuals. 1. Folks tend to project current success rate into future. 2. Great success creates a feeling of invincibility and prevents the person to observe conditions as they are. 3. Ego gets in the way to revise one’s stance.
      4. Before a trader sits at his desk, he needs to chuck out his ago. No complicated thinking, no worrying. Just trade what you see during market hours, if there is a set up. No set up, no trade. Sometimes a trade does not pan out. Then get out at the earliest possible opportunity and keep losses small.

      All declines come to an end just all advances come to an end. We are in a relentless decline. The natural tendency is to project it into future. At some point, the decline will stop. So, Gary’s current strategy makes sense.

  34. Don

    I am losing faith in Gary. The baby bull is dead. Gold was a great short back in the summer and he missed it. The stock market has been soaring and he’s out of it. The biotechs have gone down while the stock market soared and he was so sure they would go parabolic and lead the market. Wrong. He has called for the dollar to roll over multiple times and is still trying to call a top. Wrong , wrong wrong,

    1. vin

      I agree with you and I have lost quite a bit of money following him. And, I have done well going against him. But, Don, no one can predict the future. All he does is extrapolate the past. Believe me, he is very good at that, if not excellent. I recently bought [email protected] expecting a recovery. Ouch. But, at this point I think I agree with Gary that Gold is still not a bear though it looks horrible. Doesn’t it?
      I wish you good luck in trading.

    2. Mac

      Using cycles will only help in buying the swing of a pullback in an established trend. They will not help in figuring out what the trend is or when that trend will change. You can try to guess when the trend changes and buy every ICL until you catch it right but you better have stops in place for the many times that you’ll get it wrong. Know cycles limitations and only use them for what they are good for. And stop trying to guess at different narratives if you don’t understand how markets work

    3. ocram

      Gary was right in the most important period of the year,december 2015/january 2016 when he called the bottom in PM stocks.
      He saved my ass since I wanted to sell my pm stocks .
      Nowadays I think NOBODY was prepared for such a down move in gold.
      Now it’s very difficult to make a forecast,my only hope is that ,even if we are still in a bear market in gold,we could have a short bull market (the continuation of the famous “baby bull”)in PM stocks .
      But I’m losing any faith in the gold bull market.

    4. Pedestrian

      Don’t blame Gary, Don.

      That’s what I was writing about in a post up above where Markam was getting all sensitive.

      EVERBODY got it wrong. EVERYBODY! I really had to focus and think back to even recall a single person who was not bullish back then or who doubted the popular narrative that gold was starting a new bull market. Armstrong was not among them because back then even he was talking about gold slingshot moves and Edelson was chirping along with him as usual.

      Just name all the other famous gold sites and the people who run them. All saying this same thing with various shades of just how high metals were going. But not a breathe about the possibility of a decline or resumption of the bear.

      So this is not a Gary thing. It was across the board other than maybe two guys who went against the herd..

        1. Pedestrian


          Yes Vin. They were all wrong. All the technicals they offered, all the analogs, all the rationalizations and the historical anecdotes in quotes were wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. It did not matter one bit how much China was buying. It did not matter that Germany was repatriating gold. And it did not matter that Venezuela was put in a gold pincer by big US banks nor that India had a wedding season (again!).

          No Vin. None of that mattered at all.

          This was a most classic case of all the sheep following each others rumps off a cliff but this time it was almost literally the entire gold community and all the bugs that sponsor it.

          There were really only two things you needed to understand to win at gold. One was the Yen and the other was that very impressive bullish pattern as seen on the USD monthly chart. Everything else was noise.

          And those were what most people here ignored. By coincidence it was those same two key currencies that the senior buyers and Commercials were paying closest attention too when they went record short on metals.

          In other words, if you were not following currency markets you did not stand a chance of understanding this market and of course most of the bugs are now splatter on a windshield because they got caught up in mine output or demand or Central Bank QE’s and that sort of thing.

          I am just saying that they information was available to stay on the right side of the market. But the bugs are impossibly arrogant ans too sure of themselves. No amount of reason gets through their thick skulls.

          So they went off the cliff together like sheep.

          The irony! All bugs think of themselves as contrarian investors. That they are smarter than the herd. But instead they are the ones at the bottom of the cliff now in Head-Smashed-Buffalo-Jump.

          You just have to laugh its so funny.
          PS: Interest rates rising are not good for gold!

    1. bginvestor

      yikes.. I was forced to sell.. The GDX price action looks exactly like the last two shelves that dropped.. Looks like its going to drop down more til it reaches downtrend support line.. that’s what it did the last two times..

      If Yen keeps going down tomorrow ; it could reach it.. good luck..

      Oil short doesn’t seem too bad right now..

        1. bginvestor

          No.. I know some are holding on to see if miner’s close at 62% fib today.. However, based on price action, I think its unlikely.. And based on Yen/dollar AND GDX price action patterns for the last two months..

          Breaking down from this support level really demonstrates the weakness. I said yesterday that I was going to hold some long term, but that was negated once this fib was broken. damn

  35. jonsyl

    dollar again the main lead dog as to all markets as to correlations, equities, gold you name it. Alex this was the day of the reversal but not in sight. Got out yesterday with gold dropping below my 1150 and will do nothing till dollar actually changes direction. Too late to buy and too early to short, just one of those times. Gold at last year’s low might be a good bet for a pop on a day trade basis. Will take some repair time.

  36. Goild

    This is kind of extreme, worth to start loading.
    Manage to do better and now I have 1 1/2 NUGT lots all bought at $5.98.
    No loss at this point.
    Good trading to all!

  37. Goild

    Ped, yes it is a risk. Thanks.
    I just managed now to have two lots at $5.77 and not loss. I am happy I could hedge.

  38. bigglaze

    Russian ambassador killed in Turkey and a terrorist attack in Berlin. This might be the catalyst you’re looking for.

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