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Gary, if I read well in your past post about the bond bubble you mentioned that as bonds go down they can create havoc in the financial market. I do not follow that.
It seems to me that the financial world is celebrating that interest rates finally will go up, along with the
financial benefits and expectations of a Trump increased US productivity policy.
I read the market, and especially the financials, is anticipating a glorious future. Which can turn next October into a very stiff crash.
Listen from 5:40.
Its a liquidity issue. Especially if Central Banks stop buying. There will be big trouble then. And there is going to be a period during which we have a combination of crappy low yields and falling bond prices. I call it the crappy sandwich period and it could run for a decade.
Ahh turd sandwich period…and to think giant douche was elected.
Thanks for pointing at beyond 5:40 in today’s comments; these help to clarify.
I was mistaken, you did not use the word havoc instead you used chaos: “Is the bubble in the bond market about to burst? Even a move back to the 38% retracement level over the next several weeks would cause chaos in the global financial markets.”
I think the financial world celebration will extend to at least till the end of the year.
We are having the Santa Claus rally.
I tend to believe that no matter what happens to the bond market (i.e, a slow deflation or a bust), stocks will benefit and PMs will lose. That has been the course of action now for half a decade. There are so many reasons stocks should have tanked by now, but don’t, and even with negative real interest rates over the past 5 years, gold has done horribly. India, the most important gold market, is curbing imports and there are rumors China is going to do the same. Platinum is in a death spiral not unlike Rhodium, whose price is down 93% from its 2008 high. Things have changed with the necessity of PGMs (maybe not Palladium, whose use is almost exclusively in gasoline engines), and gold’s charts look abysmal. I think it is time to reconcile the fact that the “baby bull” is dead and this was nothing more than a six month bear market rally, which wasn’t even that impressive (30%) by historical standards. I wish I wasn’t convinced of this, as I’ve had my a$$ handed to me by the slow accumulation of metals, but price action in metals has been absurd. Do you really think that the stock market would be allowed to go down nearly 50% each and every year for five years? Of course not. Valuations, as extreme as they are in the stock market, mean nothing.
I think I can guarantee if bonds implode it’s not going to be good. Price dislocations in virtually anything are bad.
A slow decline is fine and would be bullish. But I’ve never seen a bubble yet that unwound that way. If bonds crater then all hell is going to break lose.
Earthkitten wrote on Friday:
“Short the bond market. Yields going much higher.
TMV is going to rocket much higher. Up over 3% today.”
The yield curve has turned around. The 3% rise can be seen as a confirmation.
Thus here we have a high probability trade on TMV; perhaps for tomorrow.
Seems that this is a foolproof trade.
Due to the US 20 trillion debt interest rates have a ceiling and so bonds, I think, cannot go deep down.
Please add to it other debts such states, counties, cities, individuals.
One day someone here who is patient and has time on their hands ought to do a nice long informative post on how bonds work since there seems to be a general misunderstanding on the topic.
Ped,
I agree, it would be great to have a primer or a link to one.
These are the facts:
Gold was in a bull market from around 1970 to 1980 (10 years)
Gold was in a bull market from around 2001 to 2001(10 years)
Gold was in a bear market from 1980 to 2001 (21 years)
Gold should be in a bear market from 2011 to 2032 if we have seen a secular top in 2011.
The differences are :
Gold went from 35 to 873 in the 1970-1980 bull (25 fold increase)
Gold went from 250 to 1923 in the 2001-2011 bull (7.7 fold increase) a very poor performance.
Silver did NOT make a new all time high in 2011
IF we are still in a bul market the similarities are:
1st bull wave from 1970 to 1975 went from 35 to 195 (around 6 fold increase)
1st bull wave from 2001 to 2011 went from 250 to 1923 (around 7.7 fold increase)
Wave 2 (major correction) from 1975 to 1977 went from 195 to 103 (53% correction)
Wave 2 (major correction) from 2011 to 2016 went from 1923 to 1045 (54,5% correction)
So IF we are still in a bull market and the analogies continue we should be in the last wave of the bull market that should drive the gold price around 6000.
Time is against the bull market probabilities,price is not.
We should find out very soon which way Gold will take.
I follow Gary articles for a while, are not perfect but useful, but, this comment of Ocram on gold has been the best i had read this corrective cycle.
Now mi thinking about:
In the 70-80 time range were a lot of people under 35 and over 15 years from the baby boom, as Harry Dent says, that people are inflationary, so it makes sense to me that gold bull market.
Right now there are a lot of under 35 and over 15 year old people in US, they are the seed for the next stock bull market starting around 2026.
So my believe is that it’s posible we’re in a gold bull market that will last until 2019-2026.
My best regards
Thank you orcam. An interesting observation. One of the few posts that have made me question my thinking. Thanks again.
Thank you.
Rob Arnott has a good record and he’s on KWN now.
Good interview imho.
I agree 100% Gary and yes I am starting to think that the elliot wave analysts out there are idiots, many of them are ultra bearish gold, they are clueless imo!
The bond market is fragile !
Gold is today what British Petrol was 61.8years ago:
As for why BP? First it was a resource stock, had global recognition, an inflation hedge, and a reflection of war type events in the oil producing areas of the planet, and BP would also have been backed by western military resources. Does that (back then) sound similar to some of the qualities of a certain shiny yellow metal now? Or maybe the main forex fiat against which gold is priced?
Look at BP at that time Gary and see the gap up move, will we see something similar in gold? Fractal patterns are amazing stuff 🙂
They are only idiots until proven correct. Why not take a closer look at the charting before discounting the ideas out of hand? That is just a suggestion of course. And not one you will likely accept. Some gold bulls are simply obtuse beyond the pale. Maybe not you but so many are. Not a sliver of light enters their darkened minds and no argument, no matter how well crafted or articulated can persuade them once bitten by the love of precious metal with all its propaganda and religious drapery attached. No chart will move them from their painted corner either. I simply marvel at how otherwise educated people can be so primitive in their thought processes when presented by facts. Talking to some bugs is like living with Stone Age people. All I am saying Steff is examine the facts with an open mind. Gold is a long term losing proposition that will be punctuated by brief periods of exhilaration followed by one let down after another. Get used to it. This market is doomed for years to come.
Ped, my dear old friend …
“They are only idiots until proven correct.”
Correct, 2017 will show if I am correct 🙂 big time
“Get used to it. This market is doomed for years to come”
I tempted to write clueless, but I will wait until proven correct in 2017, is that a fair challenge for you Ped?
#TraderPete,
Yes I agree ! Something has changed dramatically, it snapped during summer. Possible great inflation next year, instead of a deflation crash we will get inflation. No B-top as the EW is predicting, we will get new highs instead. This is great news, time is money.
You need to wait until you are correct to call me clueless? LOL!!!!
So just admit you have no idea what is happening then. Here, let me help. We are entering a deflationary bust. Gold will not perform well. Inflation, even if it even arises will not be driven by demand but rather by shortages of supply as production falls. Think of mine closures as one example, more trade barriers erected to stop the dumping of subsidized Chinese goods as another or outright factory bankruptcies due to excess debt as a third.
All will create supply shortages that may eventually bring about a rise in prices.
The larger trend though will be driven by currencies with the dollar taking center stage. As it rises that will drive down commodity prices domestically while simultaneously driving up costs for countries whose currencies are weakening against dollars.
It is deflationary because we are in just the first innings of a debt default cycle that could run for years. And as debt is written down or written off pressure will rise in many countries that eats away at social benefits. That too is deflationary because the impacts will be felt in consumption trends with a decline in the demand for fresh credit being one of its symptoms.
You bugs are just dying to get that inflation you all dream of to make gold rise. But you are going to be waiting a very long time. The credit cycle is winding down because debts have become unsustainable around the world at almost all levels from Sovereign to private, personal to provincial.
Paying down debt that has become onerous comes at a cost. It will materialize in falling demand for production of all kinds and lead to lower prices. This is coming at a bad time too. The termination of the credit cycle lines up badly with a sharp growth in retirements and those as we know are also dampeners on consumption trends.
So its a double whammy (if you don’t mind me using that outdated term!).
Tell me where demand for gold and silver is going to come from in that environment? I can assure you its not going to happen. Instead you should be prepared to take part in periodic bear market rally’s that punctuate a secular downward trend.
You will be wrong about inflation in 2017. Just as you are wrong now. I don’t need to call you clueless to make my point about it either.
I actually think that ETM is more accurate than EWT. According to ETM, gold and silver are in the fifth wave, which should exceed the previous highs of $1,920 and $50 respectively, sometime in late 2017 or early 2018. After that, a corrective wave and then a final impulse wave that will exceed the previous peak of the fifth wave, sometime in late 2019 or 2020, before the bull market tops out. The GSR should accordingly fall to at least 16 or lower and even perhaps 9 or lower because of all the quadrillions of dollars of global debt, unfunded liabilities, and derivatives.
The US Fed revenue is 3.3 trillion (T), the budget deficit is 0.6 T as the US has spent 4 T; interest on the US debt is 0.2T.
Double the interest rate then we have to pay 0.4T, that is ~1/10 the revenue.
Interest rates and bond prices are inversely related.
This supports Gary’s point that if the bonds implode will have chaos in the financial markets and hell is going to break lose.
We are eye witnessing the passing away of a generation of very hard working people that created a wonderful material infrastructure. They saw, wars, depression, and hard work.
Money is made by people. And the past history of the market will not repeat, as we are very different people than those of the past generation. The world changed after 9/11 and today it is a different world, a different reality. Now we live, in a much better world, but with very significant problems, and definitely in a global crisis of standards of excellence.
So I would be careful to make any predictions on past performance.
And I thank that past generation for the wonderful life they have tendered to me.
Goild,
I would argue that the past generations had financial things quite easy. They returned from an atrocious war between right & wrong, got blue collar jobs requiring little in the way of education (and no debt), were able to buy houses in desirable areas cheaply (1950s shacks in Palo Alto for $20K now worth $1.5M), had interest rates well above inflation and thus could buy Treasuries with real yield, stock markets that were reasonably priced and could gain a significant return with minimal risk, and affordable health care. They could do all this and have a middle class lifestyle with few skills, debt, and with one person in the household working. What little money they could save could be thrown into ANY asset and get a huge return. It was a financial royal flush: little risk, huge returns in anything. Today’s young people have it MUCH MUCH harder. I believe most in the so-called “Greatest Generation” were supremely spoiled and that was a consequence of an aberration in history.
Oh and I might add, that the “Greatest Generation” put very little into social security and Medicare and yet are living off the fruits of others’ labor…their small contributions are being subsidized by today’s young so that they can live. I think older people need to be thankful for the younger generation rather than so critical of them…they truly have it the hardest in this new world, and are not likely to reap any of the benefits that older generations did. No pensions, reduced SS benefits, more debt, much higher asset values, and little options for safe investments. Think about that.
I may add that the younger generation has to pay much higher interest on their real source of income that is credit cards. The older generation used to pay up the debt including mortgage as soon as they could. They did not know how to live like “us”, and not worry about tomorrow. They did not even have cell phones! You know how expensive it is to download good movies? And, then if you add cable and long distance calls! How many of these older people used to wear designer clothes, made in China and with holes in them? You know how expensive they are? These older folks really had it so easy. They did not use to do any of this stuff and top of it they used get married at the age of 20 and buy a house at that age? And, they haven’t even left enough money for us so that we can enjoy without working. A generation of losers for sure.
Didn’t say “losers.” But freeloaders. Just because they’re old and fragile now and there is the human tendency to feel sorry for them, we all will be in that state eventually…or worse. And will not likely have the safety nets and “luck” these people did. Most of those older generations really lived spectacular lives…lives and successes which in many ways (safety, financial security, jobs) are not going to be replicated by future generations even with massively more education and technology. Just impossible when economic power is shifting to Asia and the USA is becoming a lot like Great Britain or Japan…still important at the world table but not a demographic growth engine and not particularly inspiring like the rising cities of the East. Add to that the massive amount of debt and crumbling infrastructure, and it just isn’t possible here.
To understand facts go to one of these Asian countries and find out how hard young people work there . Their previous generation was like our present generation here, and their present generation is like our previous generation. It is called theory of cycles.
Young people in Asia don’t bitch because they know that they are doing better than their parents and so they don’t mind working hard unlike most young people here who only can appreciate cheap designer clothes among other things from Asia.
And there was no cable TV. TV was free. You put an antenna on your roof and you had 7 channels. There was always something to watch. Today you have 200 channels and you can’t find anything to watch.
Yeah, we had Flintstones cartoons in the early 60’s.
Yaaaaay. I can hardly wait for reruns! LOL!!!!!
Exactly. Thank for creating this beautiful world. Complain you can, Nothing is going to change unless we learn how to live within our means. It is our children who will rectify our lack of work ethics. There isn’t much hope that we are capable of fixing ourselves.
I tend to agree Markab..so sick and tired of the older generations telling younger people how tough they had it. There were tons of good jobs from the 1950s into the 1970s..so from the baby boomers back to the depression era babies these people all did very well. Taxes were low..jobs even for unskilled people were plenty and well paid..there were decent returns withouth having to throw everything into the stock market..houses were cheap and so on.
The bond market doesnt even look like a true bubble to me..I thought a true bubble as defined by Gary was when prices were way way above the 200 day moving average and prices doubling in a year or so. Looks like a very long bull market..pretty steady for the most part.
My guess is once again when interest rates get too high then the powers that be will make sure they get pushed down again as they have been doing for many years now.
So right. One should not underestimate the capabilities of those in power. They still havel many options, They truly are in control for the time at least. Who knows what happens in 5 or 10 years time!
Markab,
Thanks for commenting. Contrasting points of view is insightful.
I agree that today’s young generation will/are facing a difficult thought reality.
Come on now Gary really?
Pseudoscience with the 7 thing?
Desperate times means desperate measures.
What do you mean?
Stocks did crash in 1987 correct?
We did get a mini crash during the Asian crisis in 1997 right?
The stock market did top in 2007 yes?
It looks like the bond bubble is likely going to pop in 2017.
very thin…..Im thinking skinny…thinking
Crude oil exploded higher. Alex has just added another wrong to his growing resume.
I think Alex has gotten “scorched” on every prediction. Certainly his continued fable that the stock market would crash was absolutely bogus.
He sure is quiet lately. Anyway, I still don’t know what scorched meant.
Was it up or down?
Alex meant that the stock market “scorch” was gonna be hard down!
That clears things up. When I go pedal to the metal and leave scorch marks on the road its usually a positive feeling. No wonder I was confused by his terminology.
Guys this year ending in 7 thingy is coined by me. I already said months ago market going to be damned good. No crashing this year. But be watchful next year. I still think don’t be complacent next year.
SM futures are up! I guess the markets are being set up for a Great crash. It can happen any decade now.
PM futures are down. I guess those who miss this opportunity to buy golds so cheap will be sorry in about 8 weeks? If you are not buying gold, don’t blame it on experts advise on this forum. After all it is a bull! And, one can never go wrong buying bull.
These are interesting times indeed. With “negative interest rates” PM were having hard time keeping their head above water. Now with the “collapsing bond markets” i.e. higher interest rates, gold will go up? Any buyers?
So far some of the money that has been taken out of the bond market seems to have gone into SM, and it has gone up. Why shouldn’t SM keep on going up when bonds are coming down and people are selling them? Where will the money go? PM? This is a liquidity driven market. And, high interest rates aren’t good for PM.
Vin, bonds are not falling in price because they are being sold off. It is because rates are rising. The equity indices on the other hand ARE rising because of demand for a selection of companies. But don’t be fooled by that either. Most stocks are not participating in the rise so it is not broad based.
Agreed the primary reason for the bond market decline is not the selling pressure. (btw nothing can go down in price unless there is more selling than buying?) There has been much selling. Firms/people/funds are awash in liquidity. This liquidity has to go somewhere? Real estate? Interest rates rise is an obstacle. PM? No comments. Arts? Too expensive.
I fully understand that every market rise are imperfect. Or, one can talk of wall of worry!
Funny that gold had no problem reaching $800/oz in 1980 (equivalent to roughly $2300/oz today) when interest rates were RISING and were at record highs (~ 15%). Riddle me that, Vin!!
Very simple Markab. Gold was a controlled substance. It was the freedom it was enjoying at that time. At the end it was all manipulation and the small guy got trapped in for ever.
Once it the “knowledge” of higher interest rates sank in, gold went down like there was no tomorrow, from ~850 down to ~250 in absolute terms. In real terms (i.e including inflation) it was much worse.
1980 gold blew out because it went parabolic during the mania and achieved a classic bubble top which immediately led to a price collapse from which we have still never recovered. Even the top in 2011 was right-translated meaning the peak was lower (inflation adjusted) than the 1980 high. A lot of bugs have a problem with that. They just cannot accept that gold could not exceed its old highs in relative terms. But it is a fact it did not and that is a warning the next high will also lead to disappointment as a lower low can now be expected on the century long charts.
who was in charge of the gold market then Ped…..??
incharge? I don’t know. But, the public did go crazy. It was a part of every discussion. There were instances of people selling their houses to buy PM. And, Hunt brothers played a big role in popping up silver a related asset.
The speculators were in charge Tulip. In order to have a mania you need broad public participation. Gold had that in spades back then but it won’t repeat again in our lifetimes anymore than the South Seas Bubble will repeat. These things only happen rarely at best and even then only on the longest cyclical time frames. Don’t be fooled. We are not getting another gold bubble like the 80’s EVER again. That was a most remarkable period in time but not to be repeated as long as you or I live and breathe. We might just get another bubble in seeds something like Tulip-mania though if that’s a consolation. It all depends on how badly GMO and agricultural mono-crops let us down as the next mini ice age rolls in.
Ped doesn’t know. He is making stuff up as he blabs.
Making stuff up? Maybe you need a history lesson sweetheart.
The 1970’s and early 80’s bull in gold was an anomalous knee jerk reaction to decades of fixed prices in the US for years prior to that bull beginning. Gold however did discover its true price eventually but it was not anywhere near as high as buyers hoped it would be on a sustained basis and the larger trend is still (incredibly) falling.
You will know that to be a fact by the inflation adjusted chart I have posted here before.
I will post it again for the retards in the room. Make note of two major features on this one hundred year chart. There is a very large double bottom in the first half of the chart and a very clear double top in the second. Seriously, you cannot miss its obviousness. Gold is doomed for years to come.
If you are a gold bug and have been brainwashed by years of the promoters pumping sunshine up your ass you need to seriously ask yourself one simple question: How much money are you prepared to lose in the coming years before you will accept that gold is in a long term secular downtrend at this stage of the game?
Where is Duckie when I need him?
http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
Just a devils advocate here Ped…Some MIGHT see that as an IHS. Some people do say that if the shoulder is leaning upward may be a bullish sign. Not saying I follow that theory but just putting it out there.
Can only go with what the charts show us now and trade what we see.
Not likely as the lower high of 2011 versus 1980 has already established the upper trend line channel on a multi-decade basis. I am not trying to ruin the gold party by the way. These posts are mostly just to inject some sanity back into the discussion of where gold is going.
We are factually in a bear market right now as we failed to break above 1400 dollars and instead are doing what looks like a full retrace of price back to the December 2015 bottom.
Every day gold falls lower is a day it becomes a statistical outlier that a recovery is in store that would see the mini-bull resume. This was discussed before in reference to the Gann data and video that someone here put up.
There are precious few instances of a resumption in a bull market bounce once you fall below a certain threshold and zero cases when the retrace is 100% so gold does look to be on very shaky ground right now. Especially as the declines have continued this morning. Lets see what happens when we hit 1150.
“resumption in a bull market bounce” should have been written as “resumption of a bear market rally”.
Ped,
Your hundred year chart seems positive for gold, depends how you want to interpret it! I read gold in an uprend!
which part is made up? In fact he can see and see clearly as opposed some others here. How many more “2 months” will have to pass before people realize that it was big mistake of not buying golds?
blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Blah, blah blah, blah!
Regretting your 100% allocation to gold and silver by any chance ?
“Gold is doomed for years to come….” LOL!!! HA HA HA HA HA!!!
Look at the chart Goldi. Those are MASSIVE bottoming and topping patterns. If you cannot see them nor recognize what they are saying then you really are condemned to live in the dark ages of the gold world. How can you ever expect to learn to make money investing if something so obvious cannot make its way past your thick horse blinders?
“…you really are condemned to live in the dark ages of the gold world.” GOOD GRIEF, THANK YOU FOR THE GREAT LAUGHTER! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!! LLLLLLLOOOOOOOLLLLLLL!!!!!!
Like talking to a child during a sugar rush.
Ped,
where were those speculators…. ???#!!/
currencies…???central banks…????
and metals exchanges…???????????????
thanks
You need to be more specific with your questions Tulip. This one made no sense to me so I cannot answer it.
More on those old folks.
Yes, they did have a wonderful life, some of them went to war, some of them built up the transportation industry, some of them made this country a leading one, and much more. Yes, a wonderful life that they built for themselves, including having their children and grand children paying them back. So the newer generations should also have a wonderful life, let them earn it,
Goild, here is the problem. The previous generation had parents who were raised during the depression so they (the previous generation) understood what it means not to have. They wanted their children to have it all. They gave them(their children) a bit too much. Giving too much is always wrong. No one does well by taking. Only hard work can get one there. Unfortunately, the previously generation did not teach them to work hard because they though that by working less they will have a better life. How little did they know?
Vin,
Thanks, it is good to hear from you.
I enjoy reading your posts.
Any further thoughts on TMV?
tmv is quite interesting. But,the price is extended. 21 would be ideal. I could very well grab it at a bit higher price. We will see. Also watching tyo and dtys.
Oil is +4.74% currently…
Pedestrian I would say that it’s ironic how you claim that all the “permabulls” are out of their minds while you yourself fit the desciption of a “permabear” by making claims that such as; “Gold is doomed for years to come….”, “We are not getting another gold bubble like the 80’s EVER again. “, “That was a most remarkable period in time but not to be repeated as long as you or I live and breath”
Jesus, do you not see the irony?
I wonder what the people of Egypt, Venezuela and India feel about claims like that today. Gold is already near or above all time highs in many currencies around the world… So I guess you mean that gold is ONLY horrible in USD for years to come then?
The annual market cap for silver is $15B USD and has been in a deficit for the last couple of years but you are telling me that precious metals will not see a great bull market in your life time? Are you 99 years old or something?
If you watch how the LARGEST commodity market by value in the world (oil) trades like a penny stock on rumours of what, a 2-4% production, imagine what a “free” market could do to silver prices if yields keep rising until a full blown solvency crisis erupts in regards to entire nations. Japan can’t even afford a 1-2% rate without interest eating up the entire national budget.
Oh and look at the Gold To Silver Ratio and tell me if it looks like we are 100% headed for a decade long bear market.
Lastly… Recall what ABSOLUTELY TINY Greece did to financial markets in 2011 and imagine the currency chaos that might unfold if Italy goes down the path of exiting the Euro! We are talking about the SECOND LARGEST currency in the world. Imagine if a tiny 1% of all Euro assets would start to flee into gold or silver.
I’m not saying I am 100% certain of you being wrong, I am saying I am 100% certain of you being wrong about being 100% certain if you catch my drift.
The dangers of ignoring charts. Here is oil, was this chart saying short?
http://invst.ly/2×9-i
Saudis cutting further….
Regarding gold, yes it can go lower. Rsi currently 31, could fall all the way to low 20’s.
The chart looks ominously similar to late 2012.
http://invst.ly/2×9-i
Sorry here is the chart
http://invst.ly/2xa53
A few what seem like obvious/important trend lines to me….
http://invst.ly/2xa72
Looks a lot more similar to 2008 to me?
Bubba Horwitz is now saying that long term investors should be buying gold and silver now, but as a trader he thinks that gold could get down to $1,100 before it bottoms out. But, he is extremely bullish silver.
So where is the support at $1100, I see it at $1150, but then not until $1050. Silver 61.8% rally retracement is $16.66, key number.
Here are some things to consider for possible signs of a reversal:
Volume
Advance/retreat of leading mining companies
Relative movement of miners to gold
It does not make sense to have oil and SM advancing while gold is retreating.
Or may be this is the clue; as soon as oil and SM extend well beyond the averages then gold would bottom?
Vin,
Adding other debts then we have the total USD debt to be 66 trillion (T), so far we have paid 2.3 T in interest.
The US FED revenue is 3.3 T. Taking away the 20 T US FED owes we have 46 T in others debts paying 2.1 T in interest.
No wonder why the banks and financials are celebrating December 14th at 2:00 PM.
A 0.25 % interest increase on 46 T is an amazing amount of bucks, this is 0.1 T = 100 billion bucks.
in a $20T economy!!!!! Simply incredible! What happened to the “100% is the maximum debt a country can take before the financial system gets into trouble theory?
Looks like the Shanghai index is “crashing” (down 2.5% today). Could you imagine the “blood on the streets” in the US if the Dow went down a similar amount? (-500 points)? Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer would be immediately calling for a bank holiday and a bailout to make all those stock speculators (ehh, I mean “investors”) whole!!
Nobody is talking about Seasons, markets got SEASONS, we are in winter season for Gold and Summer season for stocks, it will soon turn around!
What happened last year!? Dec-Jan?
alex, no conviction as to where things are headed???? seems everytime a high flyer trader announces a secret sauce for market direction and enough lemmings follow, the market does the opposite. which shows best to let the market show it’s hand rather than profess some imaginary insight which the market will follow based on some claravoyant insight. Right now the dollar is and continues to tell the tale, and it’s not going down. at best it’s holding it’s gains. the world wants in on the USA and needs them dollars to buy in. as long as that happens things will be just fine for equities and negative for gold. Wait for that to change and then act
You can take your US stocks at nosebleed valuations and little dividend yield against a government that is highly overburdened. I’ll take emerging markets with little debt, very high population and GDP growth, and 7% dividend yield. The only reason to buy US stocks is momentum and the belief you will be able to unload them to a greater fool, of which there are obviously plenty.
agreed, markab. However not worth guessing day after day when that trend change will occur. best to see it happen as the turn will allow plenty of time for position entry. Some signs exist, vix starting to balk but nothing impulsive, dollar flattening but nothing conclusive, gold holding above 1150 but not showing any real signs of life, here I’m still holding with that limit to get out but waiting on everything else. Patience is the key, not wishful thinking.
Alex, your silence is deafening
Planning on adding to a full short-SPX position once SPX returns to 2253.
People are so much in a hurry to dart at someone’s neck!
The SCORCH is here for several weeks already, since Utilities set their YCL – all growth has been entirely retailer driven!
All offensives are in the woods while Consumer Staples and Utilities are putting one high after another!
As I’ve said: looking in the hindsight, all these small green candles will render the stocks bull a fool when watching the large red candles to come.
… the big red candle on above-average volume in SOXX on DEC1 was not a solitary event: it was one of the first small flames of the Scorch.
Look at that SOXX candle and admire it so that you can get used to the near future.
PS: this being said, I do believe that Christmas rally will come and that it will be powerful out of a low to be set next week but it will just as transient as powerful – first week of JAN will be hot red.
based on what? the simple fact that the market went up to highs and therefore has to come down. Or in case of gold, it’s come down and therefore has to go up? Not much of a strategy. Retail hasn’t been in this market for years and is not the driver. It’s sover
based on what? the simple fact that the market went up to highs and therefore has to come down. Or in case of gold, it’s come down and therefore has to go up? Not much of a strategy. Retail hasn’t been in this market for years and is not the driver. It’s large funds, coming out of bonds and repositioning and with the happy talk from trump cronies who want to milk this thing as long as possible, knowing that a lasting change in rates is not possible.
ok, then buy more SOXX, XLY, XLE, XLF and hold them.
this kind of disagreement is the same, bears the same intensity as when I announced dumping my gold at 1275 and further shorting it at 1307 while asserting the “treasuries and gold/miners will go to hell” one month and a half ago.
Powerful disagreement!
oh come on. You yourself said, you tried to play contrary trend in gold on at least three occassions and stopped out your position, you shorting oil, nearly two weeks ago, shorting equities and went all in last week etc etc. Just a lot of guessing Alex. Now you say go ahead and buy sox etc and hold them as a threat to hold opposite view when in fact if one did just that when you said the same couple weeks ago things would be far better than going short as you did in equities. Alex we all call it wrong, but don’t persist on doubling down on the same bad calls with the hope of eventually being right at some point in the future as a savy strategy
yes, I was stopped out of gold pilot positions for 3 times in a row indeed, so what ?
I myself have also said that I have a reliability of 40%, i.e. on average I get it right on 4 out of 10 occasions.
I am pleased that Barruch got it right on only 3 out of 10 and still made a fortune out of poor guy and also became an US President economic councilor.
if you like risk-on assets, hold’em. I am not here to stop you meet your happiness 🙂
feel free holding while I am shorting
not holding anything in equities, just some gold miners with a sell point at 1150, and a likely buy point above 1200. The turn you claim as a scorch will eventually come but nothing magically about first of january. In fact we are just as likely to see a selloff of sorts post fed announcement with a continuance in early january from trump cronies with more happy talk and tweets prior to inauguration. Unless vix spikes and dollar sells off with conviction, best to admit, we just don’t know rather than proclaiming divine knowledge of the future alex
Wonder if we will have a double top on the USD or soon it will start a new leg up.
I am done for the day.
Good trading to all.
Alex is getting dopey. Because he’d rather be right than true.
The one guy that knew what he was talking about is gone. I am talking about DUCK. I think he may have been banned for calling out Gary one on his bad calls, one too many times
Stocks to DCL next week as VIX gets to play with its 200dma.
Go on and enjoy biiig red candles – the 2nd display of The Scorch, of larger amplitude – yet, the best BIG RED CANDLES to come in early JAN, after Christmas rally.
Alex how far up for the gold bounce?
Alex, What do you make of oil? Opec cutting etc…. So you think the scorch will take effect after X mas rally whereby stocks will correct significantly and traesuries and gold will get a good bounce? Thanks
Gary and The US Bonds is something to watch…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoopfp5iaKw
oil stocks not following upswing in oil price. worth watching.
The USD has prbly topped and will now erase all the gains. its looking like that
Wake me when the 10 year is over 3%. Anyone calling for a pop of the bond bubble is delusional. The BoJ, saudis, And every other global central bank will step in when things get too extreme.
Watch for one last extreme move higher in the stock market–Dow over 21,000 before the shysters in charge decide to let things cool off for a while. Rate will also spike maybe the 10 year gets over 3% briefly and gold will retest the lows.
After that blowoff, expect no more than a 5% correction in stocks as bonds rally like crazy and gold gets a mild bounce higher.
The bubble will clearly be in the stock market. The CBs have created the mother of all moral hazards with stocks. Not so much with PMs.
After we get the following near term blowoff in stocks–maybe Dow 21,000+, wait for a 3-5% correction and put your life savings in a fully leveraged Spx futures position. Yes I am being a bit cynical, but watch.
A little bird just whispered in my ear that something is about to happen !
13th tomorrow …
Only way to make money in gold is day trade. Anybody who swing will eventually lose everything
yes day trade everything in here. A nothing day, vix showing some signs of life but not conclusive, gold going to have a hell of time to get over former support now resistance at 1180 or so, oil shows signs of tiring as oil stocks lagging crude uplift, etc etc. Expectation is for rally thru xmas in spite of short term blips to downside and crash in early 2017.
In view of USD down, Gold and miners showed weakness.
Today we had another failed attempt for gold keep its gains.
Beware tomorrow we can have a red candle.
USD may be breathing to start the new leg.
Yes, day trading makes good bucks to hedge once one loads with NUGT.
CBs can and will buy an infinite number of bonds. Why should the bond bull end here? The bond bull will end when they dissolve Breton woods II. Either voluntarily or after WWIII.
The next excuse for Gold and the Miners will be Tax Loss Selling into year end.