28 thoughts on “Weekend wrap & volume studies

  1. Goild

    Happy New Year to all gold bugs !!!


    Thank you for sharing your insights.
    It appears that volume on the miners is screaming that something is happening very soon.

    Ocram, Pedestrian,
    Thank you for commenting.
    About the optimism I would say: Consider going short on gold, probably it is more risky and if there is a lower bottom should not be that far. Consider going long, there is great potential. OIl and SM are doing very well, anything good today is expensive, more inflation is coming (some say that gold’ price is a measure of inflation)., I really think that the miner’s low in January was extreme, 3X leveraged funds might be at a price bargain currently, so these are the reasons. The candles now are consistent with this view, that is they are over the daily averages!
    As per playing old turkey, I appreciate the comments and will try to be very careful. There is the dilemma to get out and in of the position to ‘outsmart’ the market which perhaps only very talented people can do with frequency.

  2. GMoney

    Gary: I think there may have been a large group of investors who bought miners in late spring and summer who now dumped their positions on December 30th to generate some capital losses. I’m not as concerned as you are regarding the negative action in the miners on the last trading day of the year.

  3. ras

    After some dithering, it is entirely possible for gold to head toward 1200 + area. Market is a 2-way street. It favours neither bulls nor bears all the time.

  4. wanderer42

    One last kapow to my account for 2016, agree with Gary that last day of trading was not bullish at all.

    Gary, I think your post on returns should be restructured.

    You cite YTD gains in the metals portfolio but there were a whole lot of us that joined SMT mid year and since that time it’s been nothing but pain.

    I have money with a hedge fund and while they send me the YTD they also break it down by quarterly performance. If you’re going to manage a portfolio you may want to consider doing that.

    We all have hot / cold streaks but simply papering over the actual volatility involved in these particular investments is a disservice to everyone here.

    I’m down 68% on the metals portfolio since October. Too embarrassed to even file the tax losses for 2016 with the accountant or tell the wife.

    1. Gary Post author

      Why in the world did you join in mid year? That was the top. You need to start when things look grim. Those are bottoms.

      The best time to start a trade is when it looks like the world is ending.

      So many traders make this mistake. The best time to join the SMT was back in Dec when everyone hated me. The herd was wrong and joining at the time most people wanted to leave was the right strategy.

      Now we are in the same position again. Everyone expects us to just keep losing but that’s the right time to start an SMT subscription. That’s when your odds of making a lot of money are highest.

  5. OldTurkey

    Looks like I’m not the only one who is a victim of “old turkey strategy” in the “baby bull market”. Fortunately I had a good start of the year in silver & stock market so I mostly given all of my gains holding miners but still it’s a year wasted without profits. This shouldn’t happen … I would cut losses earlier if I consider that maybe this is a bear market rally, not “100% guaranteed” new bull market in precious metals.

    1. Gary Post author

      No one ever said Old Turkey was easy. But… if this is a new bull market, and I think it is, 4-5 years from now you will have made so much money it will boggle your mind. All the day traders and chart monkeys on here won’t even be in the same city as you, much less the same ball park.

      But it is going to be one hell of a ride.

  6. OldTurkey

    Gary you are once again recommending “old turkey strategy” spiced with a vision of future fortune, which doesn’t work on me this time, but at the same time in the last session you closed your mining stocks position. You are contradicting yourself.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not Old Turkey. Subscribers are almost universally incapable of holding an Old Turkey position. They freak out on every down day.

      But for the few that have the emotional stamina to hang on through the ups and downs of a bull market the rewards will be gigantic.

      Just imagine if you had bought in 2002 at $300 and sold in 2011 at 1600-1900. Or even better, bought the HUI at 50 and sold at 600.

      It wasn’t an easy ride. Holding through the 2008 crash would have looked like a huge mistake at the time… but just like I keep saying, bull markets correct all timing mistakes.

  7. OldTurkey

    I held through 2008 and it was stomach wrenching at that time but it was during precious metals bull market when there was a huge risk of total collapse of the banking system so going bulion and staying in it during drawdown was still the only option to escape bank run risks. Now it’s different. There is no guarantee that this is the end of the bear market and the new bull market has started. Only guesses.
    I haven’t sold miners yet since there was this positive action pre-last trading session but if GDX breaks recent lows that it’s pretty sure that the baby bull is dead and time to cut the losses and get the hell out of this market.

    1. Gary Post author

      Let me pose this question.

      In the late 90’s the Fed kept rates too low for too long and created a bubble. It popped and chaos ensued.

      Then from 2001 to 2006 the Fed cut rates too low and held them there for too long causing another bubble. It popped and even bigger chaos ensued.

      From 2008 the Fed cut rates to 0 and held them there for 8 years….

      Do you think it’s different this time?

      1. OldTurkey

        No doubt there will some kind of crisis caused by interests rates held too low for too long but does it mean that the gold and particulary miners will sky rocket during that time. In 2008 gold & precious metals miners were totally decimated. This could happen once again. There is no obvious conclusions about how gold will behave during that time. As we know all the consensus expectations about how the markets will react to post-Trump election were totally wrong. The same can be for precious metals especially since they are so heavy manipulated and there is a strong push from the goverments to ban it (i.e. India & Europe).

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    ZKOT, thank you, man, for your recommendation. I put it on my list right after the ongoing Larry Williams reading.

    JPY and EUR seem to have set both their YCLs so that USX has topped.
    JPY at least has got a very very long yearly cycle.
    Evidence of that should come next week when I expect both EUR and JPY to produce strongly right-translated daily cycles (USX to continue its fall) and to correct in daily cycle declines in the week post-jobs report before resuming higher (USX to extend its intermediary cycle through FEB via a left-translated daily cycle).

    An overally bearish USX till USX’ ICL in FEB should set stocks’ YCL –> THE VERY HIGH FLAMES OF THE SCORCH!

  9. brianbreeze

    Gary in your video post you want to see this week if the market is allowed to correct or whether it will do what it always did under the Obama admin but we are still under the Obama admin until Jan 22 so would you not wait to see how the market starts to act after the inauguration to determine whether the market will be allowed to correct naturally? I don’t understand why market action prior to the inauguration will be a reflection of how it will act under Trump.

    1. Gary Post author

      The obama administration doesn’t have anything more to gain at this point. Why would they prop up the market for Trump?

  10. ARends

    GDX (would apply for JNUG/NUGT)- Friday may have marked a significant reversal. However, it would be premature to get overly bearish until we see follow-through to the downside and a close below the 10-day EMA ($20.24). Note: There was significant BOW (buying-on-weakness) Friday.

  11. brianbreeze

    True. But you do not think Trump will also try to prop up the market to then take credit for any strength in the market? Why would he want to allow the market to correct naturally over the course of his administration going forward?

  12. WallStreetJesus

    It’s not the destination, it’s the journey. May you enjoy each day of your adventure. Happy New Year to all.

    Old Turkey Investing & Alligators:

    That’s right: Alligators survived what the dinosaurs could not. Over sixty million years later, they’re still going strong.

    There are various theories as to why alligators have survived and thrived for so long. They’re cold-blooded, which means they don’t have to eat very often. They live in fresh water, not salt water, which seems to have increased their chances of surviving the asteroid strike. They have incredible immune systems.

    But one huge thing alligators had–and continue to have–in their favor is their brilliant and efficient hunting strategy.

    Alligators are “ambush predators,” as opposed to “pursuit predators.” They don’t spend their days chasing gazelles or monkeys. They don’t expend lots of energy sprinting after their prey.

    Instead, alligators take a patient “sit and wait” approach to hunting. They spend long periods of time doing nothing but waiting in the water for the perfect time to strike at obvious opportunities. When unsuspecting prey approaches the water, alligators spring forward with awesome speed and force.

    The alligator’s ambush hunting strategy is very efficient. It allows the alligator to get huge returns on the energy he invests in hunts. It has helped the alligator become one of the most resilient, successful species in the history of the planet.

      1. Pedestrian

        Spiders too.

        Spiders sit for hours doing absolutely nothing at all and just wait for someone to walk in the door and get trapped before launching in to suck the life juices out of their guest. Spiders are the classic retail level predator. Not so different than any professionally run shop with lures and wares and flashy webs. The sales job starts once you are through the door and stuck on the silk. Then you are sold. Er I mean…then you are dinner.

  13. wanderer42

    Gary I love you and generally disagree with the dissent here but come on.

    If you really believe that then why not put a little disclaimer during signup that says “I’m on a hot streak and you should really only join when I’m on a cold streak”.

    As I eluded to in my earlier posts, it’s the double talking that made me hold on…pushing the idea of Old Turkey while saying it’s going to go down but not to worry it’ll be back up soon! Soon is never soon enough 🙁

  14. Goild


    Sorry to hear about your loss.
    Hopefully good relief will come soon.
    Happy new year!

  15. Pedestrian

    Yesterday I was a respectable technical trader.
    Today I am a just another chart Monkey (according to Gary).
    I may be having an existential crisis in 2017.

    1. ras

      The human mind is cotinuously tossed around by intense desire for approval and avoidance of censure. The subscriber, SM letter writer equation is very simple. It is based on consistent track record. Short term or long term is a matter of choice and can vary from time to time depending on market conditions.

      Each market cycle in any sector is unique, driven by different events. While study of past can be helpful, it is unrealistic to expect the current cycle to replicate any one of the previous cycles. There could be parallels, similarities and similitudes, but not complete congruence.

  16. ras

    The human mind tends to rationalise past negative outcomes through convoluted logic. It is rooted in the survival instinct. Why so much whistling in the air? Let each player do what works best for him. Other considerations are not that relevant.

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