30 thoughts on “Yearly Cycles

  1. GMoney

    I think in 2017 Trump will piss off China to the point where China say to Trump “Take your Dollar and shove it!”. China will then pull the plug on the Dollar.

  2. Dday

    “Barring a waterfall crash over the net three weeks….”

    Three weeks is a long time, especially post FED rate decision. I would wait till end of the year before jumping in, at this point speculation.

  3. Dday

    All you need to know is gold is under the yearly rally 61.8% fib retracement at $1170. Until it holds above that on a weekly basis it is at risk of falling further.

  4. Steffmeister

    Is a SMACK in Gold imminent ?

    sold my JNUG last week with a 15% profit … a little bird whispered in my ear that … gold is going down, short term

  5. zkotpen

    Gary, Alex,

    I’m gonna have to bring up the blue whale in the room:

    If gold is in its YEARLY cycle decline, and we’ve already identified July as the YCH, as well as October as the INTERMEDIATE cycle low, seems like we need an INTERMEDIATE peak between then and now.

    Pattern analysis points to election day as the ICH in week 4, and the math backs that up. So whereas gold is in the timing band for a YCL, aren’t we a bit early for that second ICL, which will also be the YCL? It has only been 10 weeks since the October ICL…

    1. Gary Post author

      Oct. could not be the yearly cycle low. Gold didn’t close above it’s intermediate trend line. It didn’t turn the 50 day moving average back up. It didn’t complete a right translated cycle, and sentiment never reached bullish levels. The weekly stochastics barely even emerged from oversold and they should reach overbought or very close to it during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.

      The yearly cycle low is stretching out to the Dec. time frame the same as last year.

  6. Goild

    NUGT/miners has been resistant to go to the lower $7 already for about one month.
    Gold has been going down. This divergence is telling something.
    One question is whether NUGT will finally break support and go lower than $7. This can be indeed because gold further crashes or because of a trap. Tomorrow it would be a pretty interesting day and I guess it would be better to stay out than to be burned. Today things do not look good. Perhaps we will have a repeat from yesterday.

    1. Steffmeister

      Exactly Goild ! I sharp break followed by an upmove later this week, then we are about to retest the High 1375.

  7. TennisDave

    Pretty useless and even dangerous Gold info here over the recent months. DCLs, ICLs, YCLs, all just crashing through to lower lows. Bottom line is US Dollar is the strongest currency in the world for good reason. Biggest economy, best economy, biggest military, best military, world oil priced in dollars, any well off people or entities around the world want to get their wealth out of local currencies and into US Dollar assets in a safe jurisdiction. Gold is nothing unless one wants to wear lots of jewelry and get mugged in the subway.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL “Bottom line is US Dollar is the strongest currency in the world for good reason. Biggest economy, best economy, biggest military, best military, world oil priced in dollars”

      All of that was true from 2001 to 2008 yet the dollar fell from 120 to 72.

  8. Goild

    The bright item is that the USD candle pattern is not currently bullish. Also
    bonds are a bit up this morning.

  9. Goild

    Well, to balance about gold, a trader does not care whether gold is useful, what matters is how much one can loose/gain trading gold. Trading gold has certain advantages over stocks and oil. There is information readily available, it runs almost 24/7, its price moves often and much, and its very short term behavior is much easier to correctly predict, so it is a trader’s paradise. Oh, and occasionally one can be highly rewarded holding gold, whether it is a long or a short.

  10. Dday

    “..its very short term behavior is much easier to correctly predict…”
    Let Gary know that, it hasn’t gone to well for him recently.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL if short term price action was easy to predict most day traders would make money…. almost none of them do.

      Alex is a pretty good trader and he’s had lots of trouble predicting short term direction.

      Invariably whenever a trend gets mature retail traders become confident that it will continue indefinitely. Of course it never does and those traders end up getting caught at the top or bottom.

      I just follow the tools that I prefer. Based on current cycle length and sentiment extremes it’s time for gold to start an intermediate degree advance any day now.

  11. Goild

    Look here is a prediction:
    Today gold may go to about 1170 based on yesterday’s and this morning’s behavior. I doubt it will go lower than today’s low. I give a 60% probability that this is correct and at least till noon going long will make money.

  12. barney

    Rest assured the bankers can not take gold below $1050 for very long (at todays $ value). Last month alone the Russian central bank snapped up 48 tons. Russia / China etc are desperate for the price to go down so they can just back the truck up and load up. Whatever you think of the Russians they are no fools – they produce some of the best chess players ever. Just look at their military that has out maneuverer NATO in the middle east with just a fraction of their budget.

    And in the good old USA look what has happened when the price was lowered:


    Looks like the American folk are no fools either.

    The bankers use volatility to scare, piss off and shake out most folk.
    They deliberately us and break TA indicators and stretch and contract cycles to mess with anyone tying to hang in there.

    If for some reason gold does go below $1050 just grab an opportunity of a lifetime.

    150% loaded nugt, jnug , gold silver …etc

  13. Goild

    In my experience I do much better with gold than with oil. Oil is kind of erratic in the very short time frame, and by this I mean intraday times. One loses most often day trading because one fails to obey what the candles say, rather than failing to read the candles.
    And yes I agree with you guys, it is not that easy, but my point is that it is easier than stocks and oil.

  14. chrisG

    Gary is right. He is no god. Could often get it wrong. But as long as his cycles works enough time for him to make good money, good enough. Cos his cycles when bottom really could have big rallies.

  15. Goild

    After all the tenet and trade-off of the day trader is that you have a high probability to predict the very short time movement. Holding overnight and further is a different story.

  16. Gary Post author

    The 20 day moving average for sentiment in GLD has only been this low once in the last decade. That was very near the bottom in 2008.

    History suggests that while the next few days could be hard to predict, the next couple of months should be very easy. The odds are very high that gold will be much higher 2 & 3 months down the road.

    1. michelle

      Gary how is it that for many months now you have gotten most everything wrong now from gold to the SM to oil? You missed everything it seems.

      1. vin

        gold is bull now. If one does not buy now one will sorry two months from now for missing this opportunity.

        And, this has been said over and over again. If one does not understand such a simple thing, one should not be investing. Btw, gold is bull. Even if one enters at a wrong point it does not matter because the bull will correct all mistakes.

        If one has doubts, one can consult experts on this forum.

  17. Goild

    Gary, brings an interesting and perhaps innovative perspective on how to approach the market.
    Day trading has a limit on how much one can make. The big bucks most often are made playing old turkey.


  18. Goild

    Thanks Gary!
    “History suggests that while the next few days could be hard to predict, the next couple of months should be very easy.” Referring to VERY EASY.

    1. vin

      Predict! It does not meant that one has to predict correctly. Some predictions are right and some aren’t.

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