1. stockpick

    What is a ‘Black Swan’
    A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.

    A black swan is an unpredictable, rare, but nevertheless high impact event. The concept is easily demonstrated and well known but naming these events as “black swans” was popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name, which was described in The Sunday Times as one of the 12 most influential books since the Second World War

    So you want to predict the next Black Swan event? Good luck with that. 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      We’ll see. Give it 2-3 months and lets see what happens to the bond market during that time.

  2. tater123

    I doubt it. More likely we get a correction in the stock market and money flows into bonds … hopefully PM’S too.

    The down leg in bonds has corresponded with the phony rally since the election. When the market rolls over from the hopium of the Trump presidency, flight to safety will be the trade. TLT 😆

    1. daverobson

      Yes this more likely the scenario that plays out over the next few months. Then the dollar resumes it path back up to new highs in late spring into rest of the year.

  3. CaliJoe

    You keep saying for last 2-3 years that Fed has printed trillions and trillions of USD but the fact of the matter is, there is an acute Dollar shortage, and Dollar index keeps rising. How is your thesis correct?

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes the dollar got a reprieve from the reversal on election night. Let’s see if that changes when the bond market starts to unravel.

      1. tulip

        Isn’t the point that the other currencies are garbage & the dollar is better garbage..like as in dumpster diving… can anyone see that changing..?

  4. gibbsrc


    This type of prediction is worth no more than a couple of burritos unless you bet part of a portfolio on it. What’s the reward on $500 risk in Jan ’18 calls on TBT?

    1. Gary Post author

      Wait for the bounce to run it’s course over the next several weeks or so then give it a shot.

  5. zbigkid

    I think Gary has been watching too many of Clif High’s video’s over at Half Past Human.com.

    Clif has gone out on a limb saying that his predictive lingustics are talking about interest rates sky-rocketing to 9 or 10% by March. Woohoo ! Would that EVER be a black swan, or the FED’s definition of a complete nightmare.

    You’d be talking about at least a 75% collapse in home prices, and every piece of commercial real estate in the US, and can’t even predict how damaging that would be to stocks.

    Maybe instead of Woohoo, we should be saying woowoo. (as in Ancient civilization below Antarctic type of woowoo.

    Its far less wackier and less riskier to just say, hey ” lets call another leg down in the bond market”. and see how it plays out in 3 months.

      1. Gary Post author

        I suspect what would happen if bonds were to produce a second leg down in the crash scenario is the Fed would be forced to initiate another massive QE program. Much bigger than any of the previous ones and that would crash the dollar.

        One way or another when the bond bubble pops a choice will have to be made. They either let the bond market collapse (doubtful) or they crash the dollar trying to save the bond market.

        Ultimately there has to be consequences to years of QE and 0% interest rates.

        1. tulip

          those consequences can drag on until fruition Gary….
          also- you accuse other analysts of speaking out of both corners of their mouth…. so what is it with ‘barring something weird..?’
          what are you talking about…????

          1. Gary Post author

            Friday was “something weird”, I didn’t expect the miners to give back so much of the gains. so I took my profits and got on the sidelines until I see how the beginning of next week plays out.

  6. Gary Post author

    I’m waiting to see if the Friday sell off in miners is reversed early next week. If so that would put the intermediate rally in metals on sound footing and that’s the point where I will enter positions for a 2-4 month rally, again barring anything weird happening.

  7. Goild

    The large volumes in the miners say things are already happening. What is it? It is uptrending.
    Thursday was just a taste of the kind of moves that can take place. Friday was a take profit and sell for tax purposes. The bandwagon is fairly empty and a lot of people are just ready to jump in. Let the institutions continue the uptrend and then we will see lots of people jumping into the bandwagon.
    The more people jumping in the better.

    “We were told to not miss a trend”

  8. ARends

    The weekly chart is just as weak as the higher time frames. What becomes more interesting for the weekly, and it is even truer for the daily charts, is this is where one will begin to see the first signs of a change in trend.

    The 2013 break of support occurred on sharply higher volume, and there was further continuation, not quite the way the daily silver chart has developed, as will be seen in the last of these charts. Shown is the consolidation at the December 2015 lows. Compare that development with previous lows on the chart. Once price rallied away from the lows, that level is now being retested from mid-December. When we say something needs to be confirmed by a successful retest, this is a perfect example.

    Should the retest hold, we will be seeing the first potential signs of a change in market behavior that can lead to a change in trend. Keep in mind, market bottoms can be very protracted, and the higher time frames are not indicating a change any time soon.

    The extreme volume in November is occurring near recent market lows, as opposed to much higher levels. Because the high volume is near lows, it gives credence to assessing the high volume as a change from weak-handed sellers into stronger-handed buyers. It takes time for strong hands to accumulate positions, and it is near impossible to buy all they want at the lows, so they buy fairly close to where they believe, if not know, where price will hold.

    This fits with the assessment that there could be some bottoming in the longer term charts that are still way too soon to consider, at least for timing. It is the smaller time frames that are used for timing.

  9. Goild

    An analysis can lead one to believe there are low or high probabilities of a movement. If one is in or out one can take decisions on how to act shall the market moves along the analysis, or simply to go long or short.
    Point in case: on Thursday the miners almost touched the upper limit of the previous level channel. The chances that it would go further up were slim. On Friday the miners went first even further up and formed a small double top. Previous day analysis suggested that the Friday early morning high was an extreme and was a point to take profits. Vin did it ! I did it too ! Major value of this site are the useful insights one gets as one person alone cannot think of everything. The collective thought here is frankly very valuable as it transforms into $$$. Many benefit from the valuable comments and ideas in this site. Cheers.

  10. Goild

    Now, the miners are possibly now at the bottom of a channel. Shall the candles tomorrow start a bullish formation, one can then go long and except to take profits at the channel top.

  11. ARends

    You might find this interesting and the gold holdings has a high divergence to price drop. Then the other thing November was a notable month for Swiss gold trade flows and it actually recorded the highest monthly gold trade flows of the year. The Swiss refining and financial sector imported 187 tonnes of gold and exported 188.8 tonnes during November. November gold imports were the second highest of the year, and only a few tonnes short of the 194 tonnes imported in February 2016. Switzerland’s November gold exports were the highest monthly exports of the year.

    BullionStar has recently started a new series of posts highlighting charts relating to some of the most important gold markets, gold exchanges and gold trends around the world. The posts include charts of the Chinese Gold Market, the flow of gold from West to East via the London and Swiss gold markets, and the holdings of gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). This is the second post in the series. Please see the November 2016 chart post article for background about the charts chosen for this series.

    Total physical gold withdrawals from the SGE in November 2016 reached a substantial 214.7 tonnes, over 40% higher than gold withdrawals from the Exchange during October. November was also the second highest monthly withdrawal total of the year, only surpassed by January’s withdrawal numbers. Year-to-date to November, gold withdrawals from the SGE have reached 1,774 tonnes.

    On a combined basis, CHINDIA gold demand for October 2016 totalled 225 tonnes, which incredibly, pushed the cumulative gold demand from these two major gold markets above the 20,000 tonne mark for the nine-year period 2008 – 2016.

    It really seems to me there is a sure expectancy of a larger demand for the refineries as they gearing and also for UK gold holding last two months, China sales increase.

    The demand increase is evident and delivery demand can not be masked by paper or minupulated. The world demand is increasing and investors demand. The chances of the price dropping of a quick pop is possibly in as usual.

    Bottom line GOLD must go up! They know shit is going to strike…lalalalala as we all know, but the evidence is out on Gold delivery and flow.

  12. Goild

    Thanks for the information.
    Add that several in this site are gold bullish, then we have a smile!

  13. ARends

    I also took profit jnug and nugt and bought lower with 50% to make sure I am in action. Will still monitor price action as we know anything is possible in short term, while ready sell half and would like best deal buying lower. January 2016 miners dropped a bit after gold dip. Gold excelerated while miners dipped lower for while. So its still risk management with the leveraged ETF’s. Got bit in SM PM mines i am not bothered about for while. So it’s very interesting times and need to stay vigilant.

    1. Goild

      I wonder what do you make about the COT report on large speculators decreasing their gold positions?
      The note is in investing.com in the gold section.

      1. ARends

        You really need to calculate the blees. I do not have it presently
        Blees rating predicting a decline is 0-40
        Blees rating predicting 71-100 is rally
        Blees rating predicting Direction change 50-70

        Formula for counting the blees number: 
        Commercial shorts-commercial longs= X 
        X-last 2 years minimum X number=Y 
        Last 2 years maximum X- Last 2 years minimum X =Z 
        Blees= Y/Z*100

  14. Goild

    ARends recent comment is a prime example of excellence in trading, I think.
    Coming up with good guesses/analysis about what the market might do is not so difficult. What is very difficult is to actually implement them in real time. Trading psychology is the great challenge. Plus having the right experience and habits. both mental and in the fingers as a pianist does.
    Beginners develop wrong habits which later are tough to get rid of.

Comments are closed.