119 thoughts on “Bull market behavior”

  1. zkotpen

    Strike

    “I recall very few giving their opinion for $GOLD longer term, say year-end,with the exception of z who said 1150 I think.”

    Actually, there was a comment about gold being up an average of 15% in the 1st year of a new US prez’s 1st term. I said I believe gold will finish up in 2017, i.e., ABOVE 1151 (where it began the new year)….

    BUT although I think gold will reach 1324 (15% above 1151) sometime during the year, I think it will end 2017 below that level.

    In summ, gold finishes 2017 above 1151, but below 1324, for a net gain on the year, but less than 15%.

    1. Pedestrian

      Gold has until the end of March to break 1300. If it has not done so by then it will not happen for the rest of the year. The next peak will come in lower than the July 2016 high. So 1368 is already behind us and will not be seen again for a long while. My estimates say gold does not finish 2017 above 1200 dollars and there is the potential it could be as low as 1000 by the time next December rolls around.

      But I am pretty sure nobody here wants to hear that kind of news.

      1. WallStreetJesus

        The end of the year is a long time away.

        The bulls are counting on a up week this week.

        Lets see how that plays out.

        Its been a pretty good year so far for the gold bulls.

        How about palladium. Not sure what’s going on with it.

        1. Pedestrian

          Maybe, maybe not. Political electoral events don’t usually move gold much. War in Ukraine did not move gold either. The US and Russia coming nose to nose in Syria did not move gold. The fall of Ghadaffi never budged the needle either. The power still lies in the hands of Central Banks though because the dollar unquestionably has an effect and monetary policy moves currency markets.

          I appreciate a lot of people here want gold to rise but that is not the large trend. Not yet anyway. Keep in mind that gold has never yet been able to break out of its 5 year long bear market trend channel. So I want you to look at that chart instead and then attempt to speculate on golds next peak.

          Get out your plastic ruler and put it on the screen over a MONTHLY gold chart.

          Draw a line touching the peaks of 2011, 2012 and 2016 and tell us what you see. What you should notice easily is that last July’s top is a top that cannot happen again unless gold breaks out of its falling channel pattern.

          That’s why I said gold has until the end of March to break 1300. That’s roughly where 1300 dollar resistance comes in again. So forget about Europe holding gold up or creating support. The primary pressure remains downward. What you want to focus on instead is where channel resistance comes in to play and be prepared to get short there.

        1. Pedestrian

          Technicals Bigglaze. You are welcome to disagree. Make your own case. My record is pretty good on gold though. Best in the business. Plenty of guys have argued with me in the past and almost every last one was wrong in the end.

          1. MegaMind

            I agree with your read on gold… its going to be down… we have to see how tortuous the path gold is going to take before bottoming…need to reassess all indicators when it hits 1140 for sure…

  2. Gary Post author

    I have the same outlook. I think gold probably got knocked into a triangle consolidation by the election night intervention in the stock market.

  3. Goild

    The 2013-2017 gold channel has coincided with the very low rates.
    The highest correlation of gold is with TIP which is not surprise as gold itself is a measure of inflation.
    Given that rates need to be controlled as US Fed revenue cannot afford to pay too much in interest, it
    comes to reason to expect gold in a very slow uprising channel, rather than rocketing beyond $1300.
    If world/US instability comes then there may be the chance for gold to really take off.

  4. Steffmeister

    A lot of guesses here, I’ve seen a chart on the web that has exactly predicted the Gold moves for the last six months. We will get a higher high in 2017, then sideways into 2018, followed by a down move for almost a year. Correctional A wave fulfilled, B yop next year then a horrific C in 2018/2019. There is a beautiful pattern in the gold chart confirming this.

          2. Pedestrian

            So its a secret chart? But you said you found it on the web. That would make it public so you should have no problem posting it. I can offer help and linking sites if you like 😉

          3. mike trike

            I found the chart. If you followed this blog as long as I have you will know that Steffmeister posts at another site under a different username.
            I am not about to give it to you but I can assure you it is there on page #485.
            Too many trolls and idiots on this site now.

          4. TraderPete

            mike trike, it is good to hear from you again. I wondered what happened to you. Where have you been? I thought perhaps you changed your handle to Strike, but that must be a different person.

            And you are right, there are a lot of idiots on this site now. What sites do you now visit? 😎📈👍

          5. Pedestrian

            This isn’t about the chart Mike and I don’t need it. Thanks anyway. What this is about is guys who make unsubstantiated claims online and nobody ever holding them to account for it. Steff has no credibility.

          6. mike trike

            Steff has as much credibility as you or anyone else. He obviously doesn’t share much on this site but posts quite a bit of detail on the other site he posts on.

            Hey TraderPete. I don’t visit many sites regularly anymore. I read Gary’s posts and comments but I ignore many of the other posters here now. Look at the insane abuse Gary took going into the bottom this year. I don’t have time to read crap like that. Gary is much too tolerant IMO.
            No, I didn’t change my name to Strike, I will always be Trike on this site. Cheers.

    2. Andrew

      I have seen a similar chart with this wave count. Entire bull run till 2011 top as wave 1 of 5, then wave 2 in an A-B-C correction. As you said we would currently be in B of wave 2. Wave C low would be insane buying opportunity, if it comes to pass, given that 3. waves are ususally the longest in duration and strongest in advance.

      The first time I saw it was probably around the end of 2013, remember even watching a video titled something like “The generational bull market in gold” or so.

      1. Pedestrian

        Love to see it.

        Steff says he has seen a chart on the web that has exactly predicted the Gold moves for the last six months and that it also predicts the future. I think he is a big fibber and just making stuff up.

        2. Steffmeister

          No charts for you, you grumpy little spoiled child 😛 I’ve made many great calls over the past month, all you talked about was an insignificant pattern in Dust. Pedo you got a dusty brain thats all.

  5. Gary Post author

    People you need to quit reading Armstrong. He made a big call for sub $1000 gold and it has blown up in his face. Notice that he never posts an article predicting when gold will bottom. Only when it will top.

    He completely missed the baby bull. He was trying to call the top all the way up. He’s missed this rally as well.

    The arrays are so vague with so many inconsistency that they can be interpreted in just about any way.

    I watch him but only because he moves the markets sometimes. So when he posts one of his “gold is topping” articles I expect at least some short term weakness, but it’s pretty clear at this point that he was wrong at the bear market bottom just like he was wrong at the top in 2011.

    Gold is now making higher highs and higher lows on a yearly cycle degree. That’s a bull market.

    1. Steffmeister

      Like I’ve said a thousand times before this has not been decided yet Gary ! The bearmarket trendline is unbroken we are still in a bear!

      1. Gary Post author

        A very long term trend line doesn’t have to be broken to signal the end of a bear market. Price just has to start making higher highs and higher lows. That’s what gold is doing.

        But if you want to consider the trend line one should note that both the miners and silver have broken their long term bear market trend lines. If both of those are now in bull markets it seems a stretch to think gold won’t soon follow.

    2. Pedestrian

      Well Gary, I agree Armstrong has made some timing miscalls so his prices did not pan out. I don’t take any cues from him though. My technicals are based strictly on my own work and they are not bullish gold right now. I could be proven wrong of course but that will require gold to break out of its current channel before I will change my outlook. We should know this week at the latest. Gold is at or near its absolute peak for the first quarter.

      1. Goild

        One can also add that XAU is right at resistance.
        The doji weekly candle in gold further supports last week to be critical. It is going to be either way up or down.

    3. MegaMind

      correct, armstong stuff is just garbage unless you have been studying them for decades and can decipher the nuances…

  6. Steffmeister

    All this predicts a currency crisis is coming in 2018, reformation of the global debt situation is on it’s way and all assets classes will suffer like in 2008.

  7. Goild

    Given that the first quarter is expected to be bullish, and it is in the works, then Pedestrian’s analysis is pretty compelling.

    1. Gary Post author

      There are always reasons that can be found to kick traders off a rally. That’s why it’s called a wall of worry.

      The rally has done absolutely nothing wrong. It surged right up to the 38% Fib retracement. A perfectly logical spot to take a breather. If gold goes through the 38% fib during this first daily cycle that will constitute an exceptionally powerful intermediate rally.

      Based on the euro cycle I think the odds are good it will breach that level and make it to the 50% fib during the next two weeks.

  8. Goild

    USD dollar may want to put a right shoulder before it dives lower; that will mean, shortly a dip in gold to offer buying opportunities.

  9. Goild

    We have not seen yet long candles. If this would be a strong rally manipulation may inflict a scary bear trap.
    Not a prediction but being prepared for all scenarios is prudent.
    Instead we may have one of those rallies, in which it keeps going, going, going without significant retracements.
    I read that the overall consensus is that currently we are bullish at least till the end of march.

  10. WallStreetJesus

    I think there is a lot of people waiting for a dip, therefore I wonder if they will get the chance. Generally when you get out its hard to get back in.

    Gary’s video today was spot on. Trying to time the market is a losing proposition.

  11. ARends

    It is interesting to see how JNUG eat going bear deteriorate so fast compared to going bull on a graph showing the results compared to GDXJ. I looked at point from where mini bull started last year and the correction back if you had either what the difference would be. Having sold at the top and having riding the full wave. If you started to buy at same point of time.
    If you reached the top with JNUG you would have made
    https://www.tradingview.com/x/P9zHCm7A/
    GDXJ you would have had 136% at the top and if held still up 71%
    JNUG you would have had 641% at the top but if held today just 111% so you lost 83%. So the argument could be said on the one hand for 3 x risk down to make sure you hit YCH and possible intermediate could still make it worth but wrong timing in short plays the pull back destroys much more than you anticipate. You could definitely not keep it longer than a few months is seen in the proof of the two graphs imposed on each other.

    https://invst.ly/349cp

  12. Goild

    It appears typical of not so well versed traders to have secret and proprietary methods and indicators to predict the market so well. I guess our early ignorance lead us often to think we are so smart to have found the Holy Grail of trading. To later found out that we blew out the account, or lost the house, and with it the wife, or worst.
    Usually all the cards are all open to tell the most likely scenario; but having both the knowledge to take advantage of the opportunity and the experience to act is what is no so usual.
    As far as this site is concerned, or any other one, it would be to my disadvantage not to share the very best I can to help understand where, say gold is going to. Many people here have quite great experience trading and excellent judgement. So by telling here my secret methods and indicators I could only stand to benefit as they would be contrasted by bright people.

  13. WallStreetJesus

    The best method to predict market behavior going back thousands of years is simply flipping a coin. There is no other method that that can replicate those results over the long haul.

    Combine flipping a coin with good money management and you are in the top 2% of all traders.

    The coin toss, the great equalizer of all odds

    1. Gary Post author

      I would argue that the reason is that 99% of all traders are trying to time short term movements in the market. 90% of the commentary on this blog confirms that statistic.

      Those traders trying to time short term movements probably aren’t going to be better than a coin flip. In the short term the market is too random.

      On the other hand if one can identify a bull market, trade it from the long side only, and understand the concept that all long positions will ultimately make money in a bull market, and you have a strategy to easily outperform 99% of the coin flippers.

      Old Turkeys will ultimately outperform all the flippers by such a massive degree by the time this bull is over that they won’t even be in the same city, much less the same ball park.

      The problem is it’s very hard to stick to the strategy when suffering a drawdown. Most people give in to their emotions and end up selling at the bottom of corrections.

      There is a reason why most billionaires tend to be long term holders. Rogers, Buffet, Soros, etc. didn’t make their money by trying to time every correction. They got there by recognizing a bull market early and then hanging on for the ride.

  14. Goild

    There is something to wonder about.
    What really takes say to make 10-50 million in this game?
    Say you have $100K to start. To 10 million, you need to identify say two 10 baggers. That is credible, though
    one has to do a lot of research to identify such a 10 bagger opportunity. Hard to do.
    Instead identify 3 baggers then one needs about 4 of them. It is plausible.
    Or say one is good at brining 50% a year. Then it takes about 12 years to get to 10 million. This is a lot of work.
    Or if NUGT gets to 500 …
    No doubt, what Livermore said, you need to know something else. Or be very lucky.
    So there are no so many traders that are billionaires.

  16. Goild

    Oh, and reality still will sink.
    Say you made the 10 million bucks.
    First you have to pay uncle Sam his share and your state, so you get to collect say 5 million.
    Then you have to pay your wife 50% so you are only left with 2.5 million.
    Hard life.

  18. Gary Post author

    Unless things reverse before the open the bears are not going to have a happy day tomorrow.

    1. Robert

      Yes bullish tomorrow. This seems likes it’s going to be one of those 40 days long cycle similar to last year. Unless it tops this week something like 28 day top

  20. Goild

    Asia often follows the US.
    Thus when the SM falls here say 1%-2% then the following day we see even another 1%-2% drop as Asia followed the US SM and possibly Europe too. Conversely if the SM goes up here, then it goes up in Asia and Europe and the following day we have a gap up here. Tomorrow may be one of those days for gold or better.

    Irrationality and panic can do amazing things. If it happened that the election day change of plans, and the rate hike were a domino effect, then we should see a swift recovery to gold at $1300. An indication that such could be the case is the V and swift recovery of gold so far.

    2. Pedestrian

      Check your channel and support lines Glaze. The dollar is setting up for a reversal higher. In three to four weeks we will see it trading above 1.05 at an eyeball guess. Today is probably a good day to consider getting out of the way if dollar strength pushes gold back down. I don’t follow your trades but I am guessing you are long miners and holding tough for a bounce. I suggest taking a cautious approach before adding more.

  22. Goild

    Assume that tomorrow morning we indeed premarket get to +1%.
    Still one needs to be careful.
    It can be a bull trap.
    Paying attention to volume and attentive to perhaps a double top should help to discern a bull trap.

  24. Goild

    MegaMind,

    I would refer to you to what Wernher von Braun said about the word impossible:

    “I have learned to use the word ‘impossible’ with the greatest caution”

  26. Strike

    Well, anything can happen in this market. And anyone can make a mistake. We don’t know if London will sell into this as it usually does after Asia goes vertical. But I know 3 things:
    1) 1220 is possible, even if it doesn’t happen. But it sure looks like it will.
    2) A well respected bear on this board got caught holding JDST this weekend. S**t happens.
    3) I have been and continue to be bullish since I signed in here. I think 1308 will be an important barrier yet again, but that we will get through it again. This time for good, after a couple of tries. Yes. I agree this is going to be a good year overall.

    1. Pedestrian

      Funny guy. But no Strike, I did not get “caught” holding JDST over the weekend. I own it on purpose so it was no accident. So far tonight gold and silver are up a little but that has hardly dented my enthusiasm. Both have turned down at fairly precise levels just before midnight NYT.

      So gold is treating me nicely this morning and confirming the V top has completed as predicted (daily chart). The small imperfection seen earlier on the upper falling channel rail on gold has now been filled in. Could it be more perfect?

      I am looking forward to a profitable day tomorrow.

      1. ras

        Yeah, reading too much into gold gyrations during non-market hours can be misleading. What counts is what price does between 9:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. EST.

  28. Gary Post author

    The key in my opinion is the stock market. Now that we have a change in the administration we have a chance to return to free markets.

    The Dow has signaled a failed daily cycle. That means the intermediate cycle is now in decline. Since it is left translated it should drop below the November lows over the next 5-6 weeks.

    That would be a normal profit taking event. It would clear bullish sentiment and set the market up for the next leg up. It would also take the dollar down with it.

    Now the question is will the Trump administration allow the market to function naturally, or will they intervene to block corrections as the Obama administration has for the last 8 years.

    1. Dday

      Call me skeptical but the people pulling the Obama strings are probably the same puppeteers that will control the Trump administration. I very much doubt anything will change….

      1. tulip

        Find Pepe Escobar & read his recent piece re the ‘masters and the deep state’.
        There may well be 2 entities at odds in regard to power & control. The Trump group is definitely different from the previous (s). imho

    2. ras

      True. Dow having difficulty staying above ma 20. Spx and nya look ok. And UVXY keeps dripping down. Until we see a little bit of life in uvxy, and all indexes start kicking together in the same direction, it is premature to talk about intermediate decline. Price and plurality are kings. We need to wait on them for more positive definiteness.

  29. ARends

    Gold And Interest Rates…GET IT STRAIGHT. Here is an interesting article for those that stick to the correlation outlook.

    https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article57912.html
    By: Kelsey_Williams

    Over the past couple of months there have been several headline articles regarding the relationship between gold and interest rates. Most of them are well-meaning attempts to convey information about recent changes in the markets as interest rates head higher.

    In several instances, however, the author(s) have tried to explain a ‘perceived’ correlation between rising interest rates and the value of the US dollar – in a very positive manner. And they have imputed a similar correlation – albeit negative – in other statements with respect to Gold. In both cases they are incorrect.

  30. ARends

    Here is a point for many!
    Even a majority of those who are favorable to gold, and should understand this distinction, don’t. look at this article.

    Hence, we see and hear statements similar to these: 1) “Gold should do well under Trump” 2) “Investor optimism is hurting gold.” 3) “Higher interest rates will lead to lower gold prices” 4) “Deflation is good for gold” 5) “crisis in mideast will lead to explosive move upward in gold” 6) “gold will do well in a strong dollar environment”

    The statements above are so totally wrong on so many counts that it is comical. Ironically so, too, since they came from those who are primarily favorable to gold and supposedly understand it. Some are even considered experts.

    http://www.kelseywilliamsgold.com/gold-warren-buffett-absolutely-right-wrong/

    1. Goild

      The economics of gold are not so simple as portrayed by Kelsey. The inverse relationship with USD not always has held.
      Gold is not so useless, a major component of gold’s demand is in the jewelry industry.

    2. Gary Post author

      IMO the fundamentals for gold are simple. When governments print too much money some of that money flows into the metals market as a sign of inflation.

  31. Goild

    Good morning.

    USD has reached the last bit of support before there is anything to hold it from a free fall to $97.
    Will see if today it goes trough support.

  32. Pedestrian

    Dollar just spiked up 25 pips and euro beginning to break down from its pattern. Nikkei is making an inverse H&S on the hourly and will go green on the futures today so that means Yen down and gold down. I can’t say for sure how far the moves will take us today but gold will be in trouble here based on my technical approach so it is indeed a short as predicted Friday.

    1. Pedestrian

      Silver left translated on hourly chart. Gold made a double top. (also on hourly). Platinum rolling over and putting up reversal candles. Its all good to go the way I see it and JDST is bottomed and ready to make its move higher near the open. If all is good in the next half hour I will add to positions a little more aggressively than last week.

  33. Gary Post author

    I think it’s too early for the euro to top. It should at least reach the 38% fib retracement (108.53) before this daily cycle tops. Two likely triggers for a short term reversal are the FOMC meeting on Feb 1st, or the employment report on the 3rd. Or if it can tag that Fib level first that might turn it down into a daily cycle low. But the cycle is already right translated so the euro will make a higher low and then have another leg up.

    Sentiment has been so massive depressed for so long on the euro that it needs a strong rally for at least 10-15 weeks to clear those sentiment levels.

    1. Pedestrian

      Maybe. I don’t know Gary. I am only really watching the action build for the immediate future (today). When tomorrow comes I will assess it again. If you are correct then I will change tactics and try to catch that too.

    2. Pedestrian

      As an aside Gary, we do know anything is possible so all trade plans are conditional. There are very few fixed trades. If it were so easy everyone would be rich trading. My idea is just to stay flexible and roll with the punches. I won’t say you are right or wrong in your approach because we are working in different time frames. Like I said before, I have been beaten by the market more than a few times. It is always humbling so I leave myself an out to change my mind as the market changes and not get boxed in to any idea bull or bear.

      1. bill

        You have to be one of the most confused traders I have ever read lol how you can sit here and claim to be making money is funny as all hell. Ill wager you pay more in fees than you take in. Now if you were paid to hear yourself talk well then you would be a millionaire.

        Again folks for you REAL traders take what many oN this forum have to offer as entertainment value only, I see lots and lots of text and links to various other people work but never their own, that alone speaks for itself.

        1. Pedestrian

          Bill, I am a realist and I don’t marry my trades. You might reconsider your pro-gold bias as being too one-sided. That is a costly approach to trading in my experience. You need to stay flexible at all times even if it means swallowing your pride from time to time and taking a loss.

  34. Goild

    I think we agree that this week is likely decisive. And today may also be decisive for USD if it breaks support. Pre market volume behavior in NUGT is not that bad; we shall se how the volume fears in the first 15-30 minutes.
    Good trading to all.

  36. Gary Post author

    Gold still hasn’t produced anything identifiable as a half cycle low, so we could get a 2-3 day dip this week.

    Don’t let it freak you out if it happens. It will be a buying opportunity.

    Or gold could just break right through the resistance at 1220 and leave everyone behind that tried to get cute.

    You can avoid all this by just switching to weekly charts. Until the weekly stochastics get overbought stay long.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Yikes you are going to be in big trouble.

      Alexandru has never been wrong, well maybe once.

      You will get scorched on JDST

  39. Alexandru Popovici

    VERY WRONG!

    GOLD/MINERS, JPY, EUR & TREASURIES ARE HEADING NORTH THIS WEEK!
    Nothing will stop them, while USX and risk-on assets South in blood.

    I said that JPY and gold/miners are in alockout rally due last week to revert only to their 10dma and that happened, so that now the rally is rampant and all killing.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      expect gold > 1260 and treasuries + utility stocks to new highs this week TRENDING STRONG!
      this is not the time to be a bear in risk-off assets!

    1. WallStreetJesus

      USD dollar in a bull market that will last years. Some dude on TV said so therefore it has to be true. Big institutions are buying the USD right now.

  44. Steffmeister

    Got stopped out on Friday with a 7% profit in jdst, I will skip it and focus one a possible correction and jump in in JNUG instead.

    This is a very small portion of my portfolio, I do not need to play around with 3x etf’s it’s just for fun.

    80% allocated in miners though

  48. jonsyl

    posted here several times that the TURN down for market would coincide with option expiry/inauguaration. Although there is some weakness clearly it’s lacking conviction, with the do llar and vix. Not convinced and therefore sitting tight as the ho hum of past several weeks as measured by spx shows no sign of changing yet. Lots of hope with gold in here, but also shows a lot of churn especially by the miners. So lots of noise by the tea leave readers and nothing more.

    1. bill

      What cave did you just crawl out from under?

      Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan. are wars.

      1. jonsyl

        yes Bill, these are wars, some of the most long running in US history, yet it’s done zero for gold in the past number of years as to making new highs. Howver the folks you describe as living in caves have a better view than you as the effect it has had on gold price which has been nothing but failing attempts to reach highs of years ago.

  50. Goild

    Well, what a day!

    I did well but not so well as on the way up I sold the 3 extra lots I had so I only carried 5 NUGT lots. Still pretty good money. Though, the comments here influence my trading. Say Pedestrian was shorting! and doubling!, others are not touching the 3X funds. So even if you are on the right side there are many temptations to dodge; it isn’t easy either. Of course with the right personality you do not have these problems, but you have other problems.

    What is the deal for tomorrow?
    Several here are waiting for a dip, even Gary talked about it today (more influence to drop the 3 lots).

    Scenario 1; It keeps going up which would mean USD falls more but there would be panic now in USD so we could have a long green candle.
    Scenario 2: the manipulators decide to inflict pain both ways an so we will have a doji going back and forth.
    Scenario 3: It is not unusual a Monday to be a long positive day to then fall the rest of the week.

    Take your pick!

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