Gold made a bear market bottom in 2015, a higher yearly cycle high and yearly cycle low in 2016, and has begun a new bull market. However, traders, following the 4 year bear market, find they cannot easily convert to the new bull market mentality.
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Solid day today. Just what we needed for the set up confirmation on Silver, that I’ve been watching. I like silver particularly because the options are dirt cheap.
I hope everyone has accumulated today or will do so this week. This is the time to be buying with two hands and two feet. A once in a lifetime opportunity.
I don’t think Ped would agree. But what does he know? He can’t recognize a bull even if it gores him in the a**. LOL. Just kidding Ped. I really do like you, but you’re an easy target to tease, especially when you say you’re 100% right that silver is going down to 15.75.😎♉️
Don’t think I said that. Luv you too, buddy.
Fact, although I do enjoy some of his long drawn out opposing veiws i would not trade on it.
This all depends on USD cycle. Will USD bottom soon? Other cycle analysts are saying it is very late in USD cycle and it should bottom any day now. There fore gold’s upside is limited here. Ped should get some relief soon
That’s the spirit I’m looking for. Only time will tell Robert. Hopefully it won’t be long because I need a direction or I will just be sitting on my hands waiting.
Ed Seykota started trading silver!
Tomorrow at 2:00 PM will have the FOMC news. I do not think that Gold will breakout in the morning.
So I sold my NUGT shares to hopefully rebuy them after a bear trap or the 2:00 PM spike.
The reversal of the Yen and the imminent and ongoing USD fall is something to note.
Perhaps Pedestrian could be right and today we have the double top in gold. We shall see.
Wednesday SCORCH coming!!
The big question is who will get scorched.
The metals are at the top of their recent range. Will they breakout to the upside and rip higher or reverse and head lower. Great rewards will come to those who guess correct. Lots of pain to those that get it wrong.
Exactly Jesus. Gold and silver are sitting like ducks right on their upper rails on the daily chart. On a timing band it could not be more perfect either. I will be the surprised guy in the room if both blast higher. But I won’t wager another nickel until we get a decision.
Well.. Just for the record. ..I’m certainly not trying to be a know it all here. Just trying to be helpful sharing my charting ideas.. I should tone down my excitement a bit. .. I do believe in my charting though.
Gold still has at least 5-10 weeks before the intermediate cycle tops. Yes there will corrections just like we had last week, but the trend is up.
The weekly stochastics have to at least reach overbought and maybe embed for several weeks.
Option Trader, you could be right. Truth is there is indeed another pattern in play but I had discounted it as being too early. Gold is tracing out a falling expanding wedge since August but I have been unwilling to accept it was on its last rise/fall cycle. That 1125 zone just looked too magnetic. Maybe I will be wrong on that call. If metals do break out then I would see gold going to 1325 in a hurry.
Not that it matters much. I’m not one of the people here underwater on 6 month old trades. Thanks God for that. And there is no harm in falling off a horse either as long as you aren’t too drunk to get back on and keep going.
Day after day the fairly lady comes and saves the SM.
Will the rate be increased tomorrow?
1/4 point? 1/2 point?
If so where would gold to?
0 chance of rate increase tomorrow.
June is the earliest that there is any real chance of a hike.
0 Chance? This says a 96% chance that there’s a hike Feb 1st. What’s hinting the other way?
I think Gary is taking a contrarian position. I don’t know the record of the CME on predicting Fed rate increases but 96% probabilities are about as high as it gets and a virtual guarantee. But is it priced into the bond market already? If it is there is going to be one hell of a bounce in bond markets should the Fed not come come through with a rate hike and that would suggest a BIG breakout in gold.
On the other hand, if the Fed does come through (and given it is priced into the treasury futures markets already) then today could be a snoozer with very little drama and gold will turn down along with bonds / yen. So gold bulls should be hoping for no rate hike.
They should be praying for that tiny (unlikely) probability that Gary alludes too above.
PLEASE don’t say gold was manipulated if the Federal Reserve gives us a rate hike today. Normalization has virtually nothing at all to do with the gold market but it does have a huge impact on debt. Translation, bonds and thus currency relationships. If gold goes down it is not because it was targeted but rather that it is collateral damage.
Just asked an investor friend at a big bank, no rate hike.
If so it is already accounted for in the markets and gold bugs will have a feast breaking resistance?
So the weak GDP was the turning point?
Gold is going to do what I said it would do in my last video. It’s going to produce another leg up. The retail crowd/hedge funds/ technical traders will buy the breakout and then get trapped when gold goes into a 5-8 day decline into its daily cycle low.
Like I said; this is how most people lose money in a rising market. They buy breakouts and sell pullbacks.
They do the exact opposite of what they should do.
This is not how I trade. I try to buy cycle bottoms and take profits into breakouts… or I just hang on through the entire intermediate rally.
This is why I wasn’t worried about being early to the trade back in Oct. Heck we’ve already recovered all those losses and have significantly more profits than we had at the summer top.
151.8% to be exact.
I keep trying to tell people that bull markets correct all timing mistakes, but most people will just never learn this lesson…so most people won’t make a dime off of a bull market.
Maybe so Gary…But you sold your gold position when the stock market broke out so now your going to miss this rally. You better hope it gives a 5-8 day pullback because if this is a new daily cycle you will miss out big time
One of many inconvenient truths about Gary’s trades. This needed to be said but 99% of his followers will once again ignore this elephant in the room.
Huhh…??? what r u trying to say..???
The guest are arriving to the party.
Volume in GLD, TIP, TLT, and FXY are going up.
Trump seems to like “shock and awe”
We could get a surprise rate hike tomorrow that I don’t think would be taken well by the stock market or the metals since nobody is expecting one.
I swear, he is the BEST actor ever. Trump plays his part brilliantly. Naturally he is one of the true insiders. This whole thing about him being an adversary of the whole political system and the media is just a cover for achieving the same goals by another means. Donald is one of the team. But he’s so good he has almost everyone fooled.
Only the guys with Make America Great hats on!!!
Shall we make a Pink one for you? Let me know I offer free shipping.
Only the guys with Make America Great hats on!!!
Ped, I am glad that you said it. I have started to have similar feelings but then I have never heard anyone ever say that before. What a dammed setup? Head we lose, tail we are skewed.
All part of the same long term agenda. Not sure if we should hunker down in a bunker yet though. I have a hat that says End of the World as we Know it for just in case.
You have a point. Here is guy going after 7 small countries and stopping all refugees including non-Muslims while doing nothing to stop the source of terror and its funding, namely pak and Saudi Arabia.
Similarly, he goes after legal high tech cheap intellectual labor to save jobs? While doing nothing to China!
And I was one of his fans!
hes pro israel AND saudi & jordan….
I think most of the rest of the world can see what a fraud he is. The problem is that Americans are so sick of the establishment that they’d be willing to try anyone else.
Thank you Pedestrian for labu, I was looking to short it…
If u have investments in Mexico the tide is turning, Trump has increased Mexican Nationalism. Anti Americanism increasing. Is the nationalisation of American owned mines in the cards? Well done Senor Trump, mucho gusto, bendejo!
Mexican mines mind with American money, nothing to see here. Funny MAC where were you when the Obama EPA dumped millions of gallons of Heavy metals waste from the King mine down the Animas river in Colorado. Being such a stand up activist (cough) surly you must have an opinion .
Hold on let me run and get my ” Elections have consequences hat “
“Well.. Just for the record. ..I’m certainly not trying to be a know it all here. Just trying to be helpful sharing my charting ideas.. I should tone down my excitement a bit. .. I do believe in my charting though.”
Actually, you haven’t shared a single “charting idea”. I have been waiting patiently for one!
In fact, all I’ve seen so far is excitement, backed up by nothing. Doesn’t come across as “know it all”. More like manic.
I’ve seen your last 5-10 posts — nothing of substance, just ebullience over gold & silver.
I’m sure YOU believe in your charting or whatever causes you to feel you’re at a once in a lifetime juncture. Maybe you are!
Whether that emotion is shared by anybody else remains in question.
I doubt any market in the world has taken notice.
Exactly! And for those who say they wouldn’t bank on ped’s views, when was the last time you made 10 profitable trades in a row…
What some of you don’t understand is that you don’t have to be a bull or bear. TRADE THE PRICE. Calling yourself a bear or a bull AT THIS JUNCTURE is pure insanity.
I agree, on both counts.
1. Ped’s posts have substance & he can definitely work down to a very small degree of market move. I believe he uses a 1-minute chart, rather deftly.
2. Bulls & bears are both on their way to Boot Hill, probably for the next few years — to be pronounced dead on January 1, 2022, my proposed end of the “rolling 4-5 years”.
As long as we are underneath the BEAR Trendline I consider this as a BEAR rally, foolish of Gary to state that this is a new Bull, T H E D E C I S I ON H A S N O T B E E N M A D E Y E T 🙂
Higher highs and higher lows.
It’s foolish to wait for a trend line break to confirm. You just end up missing the biggest and best gains of the bull market.
BTW both silver and miners have broken their bear market trend lines.
Yes my miners is doing very well thank you, however a new low in Gold is lurking in the woodwork.
We have to wait another 6-10months before a decision ! Even if we break the trendline it’s not a sure thing that the bear is over imo.
So here we are. February 1st 2017 and into a new month. As often mentioned in the past, calendar changes can often bring reversals of market trends and I suspect this one may be notable. While the jury is still out on golds next direction it is worth keeping in mind that today is a Federal Reserve FOMC statement date and it comes at a key moment as 30 year Treasuries are in deep oversold territory and sitting quite literally near the bottom of their monthly trading channel.
So will the Fed move gold as they have done so often in the past? And will gold reverse direction or break out to new highs? Only the Shadow knows! Stay tuned. We will know later today.
I think those expecting downside are going to be disappointed. As Gary says, bull markets surprise to the upside. That’s what I am expecting. At some point we will look back and say wow, 1200 gold was a steal. The miner RSI are increasing as momentum builds. Things could get explosive soon and leave many with FOMO.
Peope here are rude, I’m moving on..
Pleas stay we value your skills.
We have no options expert around. Pleas stay.
Thanks Goild. I guess if Gary can withstand some of the miserable comments on this board for so long, I guess I shouldn’t let it get to me either..
You have a thin skin like someone else i know
With Trump telliing the Fed that all future announcements need his ok, is that good for gold?
So far I only can count two ways:
1 There is pessimism about the USD
2 GLD volume is increasing
I’m gonna buy this dip in gold. Half cycle low or Daly cycle low means there is stil morel upside than downside potential
If this is a double top the speed at which it will fall would be scaring.
The day has not started so sunny for gold.
Ped must be getting comfortable.
I will day trade instead after the open.
JDST just made a picture perfect retrace to the .764 level of its initial burst out of the gate this morning. It is encouraging that it stopped there without making a full retrace. Note that what has stopped gold from falling further at this time is that the Nikkei stalled at its January 20th resistance point of 19,300 which you will find by looking at an hourly chart. It MUST break above that level or the gold decline will end. The channle line on the 5 minute chart looks strong though. No worries yet.
The Fairy Lady may be putting her hand on USD too.
Looks to me like Yen/USD has almost 260 pips drop in the works from peak to valley. Without guessing exactly when it bottoms (today or tomorrow) I will estimate it won’t stop the decline until it hits .8665 and you all know what that means people…..
Gold is going to get knackered today.
My first major downside gold target is 1183 and spare change. Probably get there late today or overnight. Yen has seen a minor yet significant breakdown on its lesser 5 minute chart and has already dropped 130 points since it peaked yesterday morning.
The dollar should put in its daily cycle low either today or on Friday. It will only be a dead cat bounce though. It shouldn’t last more than 5-8 days then the bottom will fall out and the dollar will collapse at least into the low 90’s.
That will drive gold into its intermediate top. At least to 1320ish.
I think gold is probably stuck in a triangle this year so no new high during this intermediate cycle.
The miners however should test the summer highs.
We already locked in gains this morning. SMT leveraged metal portfolio +150%.
Maybe the dollar alrdy had its DCL yesterday? You said gold put in a HCL and now you are changing your mind alrdy. Confusing
You need to get a subscription to see actual real time calls and the reasons behind them.
ADP payroll very strong. Metals holding up relatively well at this point, considering.
Fed Announcement at 2pm…
Option trader and all,
Glad to hear you are staying.
I may submit that we are spending very valuable time in this site. It is not for free.
We are here to make money and a good time sharing insights.
We need to put here the best we can. We will attract more value into the site.
And it will benefit us.
Gold’s triangle is NOT a 2017 phenomenon.
It began on December 3, 2015, and will last for a few years, perhaps until 2022, i.e., “4 or 5 years”
Then the final move down begins.
Massive bear markets are not followed by another bear market. The bigger the bear market the bigger the bull market will be that follows it.
The mining stocks just suffered one of the most destructive bear markets in history.
Over the next 4-5 years they are going to deliver one of the largest bull markets the world has ever seen.
The only thing holding the metals back right now is the ongoing manipulation to keep the stock market propped up. As long as traders feel stocks are risk free there isn’t a huge incentive to diversify into other assets.
But propping the market up and driving significant gains are two different things. Notice that they can keep the market from falling but they haven’t been able to produce any significant gains once the initial intervention and rally out of the ICL has run it’s course.
That’s because there isn’t any natural buying pressure in the market. Big money won’t buy until we get a full corrective move, and for the last year the government hasn’t allowed that to happen. So the PPT is unknowingly removing all the real buying pressure from the market by trying to keep it artificially propped up.
I agree that the mining stocks were creamed mercilessly, probably the worst ever. Does that automatically imply that 7 lean years will be followed by 7 fat years? There were fundamental reasons for the downturn.
For those who love fractals:
Gold’s weekly chart from 2000 to the present looks very much like the 2-hr chart from December 15 to the present, with some notable differences, of course, but very similar shape for 15 years of market action, compared to 7 weeks…
10years yield up>>>>>>>gold down
But, they are decoupled.
He did it again, with Trump telliing the Fed that all future announcements need his ok, is that good for gold?
He said that? WOW!!!!!
Where did you get that? Post the tweet or the support as to where this was reported. You are not entilted to your own facts.
Saw the headline on Bloomberg, butvlooking for it now cant find anything so maybe not. Sorry
Then don’t post false statements. Always have your statements like this supported or just keep you mouth shut. There is way too much fake news without you adding to it. We all know you hate PRESIDENT TRYMP but keep that to yourself on this investment blog.
Yavol, mein dumkoff
Used to be a buy and hold trader, but now i follow the crowd, they are controllong the market, fibs, boll bands, swing trading. There are definite rythyms and a number of us are making damn fine money buying low and selling high on the normal swings of the market, nothing goes straight up or down, obvious turning points are making some of us very happy. This is the only point i disagree with gary, you can make more getting in and out while riding the trend up or down. Jmho
Oh and by the way, isn’ t the Fed an independent body, and the pres should have no influence on it? In theory supposedly
I’ve got $500 for lunch and I will come back just before the 2:00 PM spike.
Good trading to all.
Not sure where you eat but that better be a good lunch.
Interesting article on independence of fed.
you guys all deserve each other and you deserve Gary….ha. Like a bunch of drunk monkeys trying to trade. What a cluster! Comical for sure.
Epiph, Used to be a buy and hold trader, but now i follow the crowd, they are controllong the market, fibs, boll bands, swing trading. There are definite rythyms and a number of us are making damn fine money buying low and selling high on the normal swings of the market, nothing goes straight up or down, obvious turning points are making some of us very happy. This is the only point i disagree with gary, you can make more getting in and out while riding the trend up or down. Jmhosed to be a buy and hold trader, but now i follow the crowd, they are controllong the market, fibs, boll bands, swing trading. There are definite rythyms and a number of us are making damn fine money buying low and selling high on the normal swings of the market, nothing goes straight up or down, obvious turning points are making some of us very happy. This is the only point i disagree with gary, you can make more getting in and out while riding the trend up or down. Jmho
Wow, copying screwed up just read first half above
Why on earth would you pay attention to Gary if your main focus is on following the crowd? Gary tells you time and time again that the crowd is almost always wrong and that the crowd almost always loses money.
If you feel that way then why are you even here. If you are here to just insult everyone then who is truly a monkey?
Pure entertainment…the car wreck you cant help but look at. Whether it’s you guys who mainly have no actual trading plan or Gary who plays hide-the-ball to make himself constantly look like a winner akin to a sleazy politician…it’s all mindless entertainment 😉 Just cant believe you guys fall for it!
Epiphany your comments are that of a looser. Insult everyone to ry to support your loosing positions. So Sad.
“Loser”…correct your spelling 😉
and Gary tolerates you-
Ronnie, give it a rest, arent u missing a Make America Great Again rally somewhere in redneckville. Look at the comments from political leaders around the world, except from Putin, hmmmmm. Your BOY is doing a great job of instilling uncertainty and fear. Vonderbar, mein Feuher!, oh oh i think I just drove half the board into convulsions, lol
You must be in Germany — How well has your policy’s turned out. You are driving not anything except your political agenta. You will loose big time. American has finally awakened to the far left and how bad they are for Amercia. Your insults are your last stand. There is a new day in America and you will not be part of it.
Lots of positive economic news around the world, tough for Fed to sound dovish, therefor short term headwind to gold but uptrend good long term.
macman1519 You are a Troll and nothing more. You have nothing to add to t0 blog except you left wing agenta.. You hide all post with a comment about gold or silver to cover you main agenta. We expect you fools as you lost and this is the best you can do.
“looser”, “agenta”….just where are you from Ronald?