Stock’s 75 WMA
Other than 2013 during a period of massive QE stimulus every yearly cycle low in the stock market has at least retraced back to the 75 week moving average.
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congratulations Gary- you and you alone call the present & future an rely on no one else.
It is your insight and yours alone.
You have more respondents too.
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We The People request the new administration Make Money Great Again; that gold and silver may freely be used as money alongside United States dollars.
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All tax discrimination against gold and silver must cease, including the removal of all capital gains tax on holdings of, and transactions in gold and silver, and;
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Although President Nixon unilaterally suspended in 1971 the direct convertibility of the United States dollar to gold, the Constitution does not grant either Congress or the President the power to demonetize gold and silver or impede their use as currency. Yet, these precious metals have in fact been restricted and discriminated against:
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In combination with the lack of US dollar convertibility, these factors of discrimination effectively demonetize gold and silver, impeding their use as money in day-to-day commerce.
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While the macroeconomic merits of using a sound and immutable currency – such as gold and silver – may be debated, there should be no discrimination, either explicit or implicit against those citizens who unilaterally choose to use constitutional money.
Federal Reserve Notes as United States dollars have objectively proven to be an unsatisfactory currency for individuals and businesses. The purchasing power of the US dollar continues to decline ever lower. While at the same time, even with no official government support or use in global monetary systems, gold and silver have preserved purchasing power for savers and wage earners in marked contrast to the currency of any central bank.
Before 1971 the federal minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, or 1.42 grams of gold per hour based on the gold price at the time of President Nixon’s “temporary” suspension. By 1985 the minimum wage was $3.35 per hour, but only 0.32 gold grams per hour in purchasing power. Today the Federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour, but just 0.19 gold grams in purchasing power. So while minimum wages have increased in nominal U.S. dollar terms more than four times, their purchasing power for goods and necessities has declined to just 1/7th of what they previously commanded, an eye-opening 87% decline in the purchasing power of the US dollar compared to gold.
The same 1.42 grams of gold that was the minimum wage in 1970 would today equate to more than $54 per hour, which would enable individuals even being paid a minimum wage to maintain an adequate standard of living. Gold preserves purchasing power to acquire the necessities of life – education, health care, housing, food and energy. The cost of all of these necessities are consistent over time when measured in gold, but appreciate exponentially in U.S. dollar terms.
Interest paid on savings would have recovered some of this purchasing power for any dollars saved, particularly in the 1980’s and 1990’s when interest rates were higher, but it has become harder to save any dollars for spending in the future. A greater portion of one’s wages is needed to keep up a reasonable standard of living in the face of rising prices.
As a measure of our Nation’s economic accounts, the state of our Union demands higher standards, not lower standards for money. Looking back, it’s hard to think of another product that has become so objectively worse over the past two decades than central bank managed currency. Looking forward, it’s time to Make Money Great Again.
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It is a monetary system in which a country’s paper currency is redeemable into gold. Isaac Newton invented the gold standard circa 1700 when he was Master of the Royal Mint in the United Kingdom.
When did the US go on a gold standard?
In the US, one of the first acts of the newly formed Congress was the Mint Act of 1792 signed into law by George Washington, which placed the US dollar on a silver standard. The US changed to the gold standard in 1900.
When did Nixon remove the gold standard?
The process started with President Roosevelt shortly after his inauguration in March 1933. Up until then, the dollar was defined as 23.222 grains of fine gold $20.67 per ounce). FDR devalued the dollar to 13.714 grains of fine gold ($35.00 per ounce), and outlawed gold ownership in the US. This prohibition remained until 1974.
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Watching Silver tomorrow carefully, so far so good.
As long as we close the day without a major pullback. I see a major set up that will push this baby up and away.
Excuse me if you don’t mind me asking but what are you basing that prediction on? I know sometimes people stare at charts so long that they can see almost anything they want. Two people looking at the same chart can see the exact opposite outcomes. But only one will be correct.
I would encourage you to check the daily chart in this case and just make the easiest observation. It does not require any special technical tools at all. Just eyeballs, perhaps a plastic ruler and a minute of your time. Silver is currently at the top of its falling channel. When price is at a top of its range the next move is rarely more-up!
Unless it can break out above that line and stay there for a couple sessions you should be expecting the next trending move to be a decline to the bottom of the channel and as it goes down so will the fortunes of any silver miners you own. that makes them a better buy if you have the patience to wait a month or so.
Also note that on the silver hourly chart there is a pretty clear head and shoulders pattern at this time (3:30 NYT) that has appeared as a result of the spike spike a few days back. In such cases I rarely bother to dig deeper since straight forward observations can be sufficient and I can save my time for other work.
If you need to dig deeper though the S-Stoch and MACD are not that comforting. Silver daily has hit the top of its Bollingers and they are now narrowing adding further to the bearish case at least short term. I would anticipate a drop to at least 16 dollars from here and perhaps a little lower to the support created at 15.75 at the end of December.
After that silver looks like a long and a very good bet based on the weekly chart. In my own case I will be looking to buy miners down at that level rather than doing any short term trading.
I am a chartist. I look for candlestick behavior that act cooperatively at certain resistance points which consistently demonstrate moves in certain direction s. The farther out the confirmation set up us established, the more powerful the move. This set up is happening right now, on multi year charts.
If silver closes today without a reversal, and can stay strong….. We have a monthly close confirmation in this long term bullish set up and a once in a lifetime entry will happen.
Be prepared to buy silver with two hands and two feet.
Gold confirms the near-term bearish case for silver. To identify the simplest pattern in this case you simply take the channel line established by the election night spike high in gold and run it down to where we currently are. n other words it will touch the top of the peak created on January 23rd.
You can readily see that the small move higher in gold since January 27th must break above the channel line you just drew to turn this chart bullish. Don’t bank on that happening because odds are against you. Instead make a plan to work with the momentum trend that is already in motion.
That is still down as it has been since the highs of July.
I am not saying that gold cannot break out though. Anything is possible. But as a trader I would bet on the odds of a pattern continuation unless I see a contradictory move and thus get short gold and miners as soon as the current weak rise meets that upper rail. That could happen as soon as today when gold reaches 1210 and change. That is in fact my target so keep an eye on it and don’t be fooled by people who are always sunny on gold and just want it to go up soooo, soooo badly!
Gold will most likely turn down from 1210 today and fall for much of February. I am looking for the next major to support to come in at 1150 so its not really a big deal and not a lot of time to wait (unless that 60 dollars fall is enough to ruin your account!).
The good news is we have a great buying opportunity down there.
@ped
it’s very reassuring that both you and zkotpen are bearish on gold at the moment. I have gold on wave ii of (iii) in a simple a-b-c decline. I will probably start scaling in into gold futures at 1163.
imo, gold is a trade simply not worth taking right now. Traders would be better served if they wait for a confirmation of trend. Of course, price action right now is a day-trader’s dream… quite consistently range-bound and adhering to technicals.
Sounds like you agree then since 1163 is almost 40 dollars lower than where we sit now. I don’t know about your entry number and suppose we will have to wait to see how it plays out but my idea would be to let the price pattern play out to solid supports levels and avoid jumping in too early. Hard to do when the charts turn bullish, I know. My worst mistake used to be buying before the time was right. Every bounce along the way down made you feel you missed the bottom. But generally, even if you miss the first entry chance and the chart is telling you its going to move back up you still get another opportunity (or three) to get long at the best price.
Is tulip “Gary’s fandrodge”??
What a monster dump (s)he took on the blog!
Hard to post anything having to do with markets amidst so much copied and pasted garbage!
And now it seems Pedestrian is stopping his posts…!
No, just not posting trades set-ups or entries and exits. That’s something you guys need to do for yourselves. Mostly I don’t want to be responsible for anyone else when one of my trades go sour. It’s inevitable that one will no matter how good your past record is.
(meaning, the quality posts are disappearing, while the garbage posts are on the rise)
The answer is no. This time will probably not be different.
Gary, we are one month into 2017 so there remains plenty of time to make a cycle low. What does a 75 week average have to do with anything. Did you just make that up as being something relevant? Personally, I am fond of the 26 and 52 week averages, but then there is the 40 week and 200 week and let’s not leave out the popular 100 week.
I think Tulip is one of Gary’s pets.
Everybody should be long the PMs right now and forget about ‘waiting’ for another pullback.
Short the stcok market. I think it’s going to get ugly.
I hope so Don. It does look like shares will fall now the shorts have all been beaten (again).
I like reading your posts pedestrian, but I hope gold keeps grinding higher from here.
Tulip is reminding me of Armstrong and his ridiculous question and answer.
You will get that 1210 number today. Keep your eyes on it. If gold breaks out from that level then the chart changes and becomes bullish and we will need to review what has happened. That 1210 is not a precise number btw but just the general target. Sorry but I don’t have my glasses handy right now to be more specific. We can look at it closer later in the day.
@don
until the nasdaq and the DJI break below their respective bull flags’ support, i’m not willing to turn bearish on the SM.
also, look to the 30 year T-bonds: it is locked in a descending channel atm.
Garys adopting to my thougts once again 🙂 stockmarkets needs a QE4 to stay up imo.
Stockmarkets down, precious metals up. I am not sure if the high for PM will arrive at summer solstice, it may continue longer. When the next big correction arrives I am not sure that is the end for the bull … then Gary will be semi right, this is THE BULL, PM will finally break away from stockmarkets. However the decision has not been made yet, we have to wait and see what Mr Market decides.
I watched a movie a couple of weeks ago about the future for stockmarkets. The US stockmarket will be a winner for a while. That’s when Japan runs out of oxygen, capital will flow towards safe haven the US stockmarket like in the 30’s. He called it a financial tsunami, first down, before the tsunami and after that, up big time when Japan and Europe collapses.
I am not so sure about a collapse, the dollar is just a joke today compared to 1929, the collapse has been a fact for many decades, a collapse in slooow moootion. That is the vicious game of the elite.
Yep, markets down, then massive QE and the world goes Zimbabwe like
Yup Gold is going up today..1215 as ped said…higher wirth US havoc? JPY broke out of channel bounce on resistance of H&S 4H chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qs2GR3uB/
We are set for a positive day in stock markets.
Good morning.
Today appears like the beginning of a strong day for gold.
There may be a dip around 6:00 AM which would be an opportunity to get in.
The question is whether this is leading to a breakout above $1220 or to a double top.
More practically would be when to load more shares.
Perhaps tomorrow at the low of the 2:00 PM spike.
Don,
I got on board with NUGT at $10.15 yesterday.
We had the swing yesterday and today the follow through.
I make the call the DCL was done on day 29 (last Friday)
So we are on day 2 of the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle.
Apri claims : This is usually the most powerful daily cycle. I would really like to warn the shorts that it’s extremely dangerous to short here.
140-180$ pop in 2-3 weeks is not impossible.
I agree, that the scenario is set for gold to demonstrate its rising power.
Mark me down for “strongly disagree” and use a thick black marker.
You can disagree all the way to 1300. Price talks. Silver confirms the move if it closes over 17.50.
Like Gary always says, bull markets surprise to the upside.
Today was surely a surprise as you were anticipating a drop.
Appreciate your views, but you are just being stubborn, like Alex.
I wonder who were the smart guys who realized the opportunity to buy miners on Friday at the low?
For concentrating in a quick $2K profit I missed the bigger picture.
Focusing and wanting something blinds you. For example, while in a trade just wishing for a stock to go up, blinds you from an obvious imminent fall.
Gary, could that have been a daily cycle low in gold instead of a HCL? So maybe gold will go 1250 now
I am not Gary but I will throw in my two bits anyway.
NO!!!!
Ped you are being maybe 2 bearish. Gold will at least test 1220 here I’m just wondering if this is a new daily cycle. If so gold will go. Much higher than 1220
I can’t buy what I don’t believe. But you are correct so far and gold exceeded my numbers. For me this just means waiting another day to see if the trend really turned. I won’t make any commitment until the dust settles. Remember, gold and silver must hold above their breakout levels (if this is a breakout which I strongly doubt) until the end of the day at a minimum.
The Trump administration just fired the first shot in the US-European currency, and thus trade, wars when Trump’s top trade advisor Peter Navarro accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to “exploit the US and its EU partners”, the FT reported noting the comments are “likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy.” News of the statement sent the EURUSD surging and the dollar tumbling to fresh 2 month lows.
Trump has finished the right shoulder of DXY…
I have big doubts about that too. Dollar is going to reverse higher.
Dollar is done. 91 by summer.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-31/euro-surges-after-trump-trade-advisor-accuses-germany-using-grossly-undervalued-curr
Sorry, still not convinced. Trump will not likely affect the currency in the big picture although he can undoubtedly do it over brief periods. The basic chart remains unaffected though.
Dollar rise is baked in the cake because of the 9T carry trade which was happening since 2008 QE… Trump could make a swing here and there but like I said, cake is baked…you can apply the cycles to those swings if you like…
In the words of Gomer Pyle.
Surprise , Surprise.
On the 25th I suggested that while the Chinese traders were on holidays that we would get, some boost to the SM for one or maybe two days and that the Monday would be the most likely day of the SM beginning of the SM drop. It came on the Friday. I made some speculative predictions.
Only Z paid any attention.
Lets see what happens next.
I gather the rate hike will be more dovish if currency is becoming a key issue for Trump…well a possible tailwind added for gold
That spike at 6:00 AM teaches that by setting a limit buy order, one can occasionally, at 6:00 AM, get a good entry price. I will try to remember it. Perhaps for tomorrow at 2:00 PM.
Ah .. I was Just thinking of this site and the money I made on SA etc.
And reading the likes of that A-Hole “Pedestrian” with his arrogant, nasty, negative so sure attitude!
What an A-Hole. Posturing himself up on a blog.. a blog.
We kick the shit out of guys like you down at the club.
I think you left you glasses in the kitchen!
Oh… and no need to respond to this. Because I won’t be looking in the rear view mirror!
Thank You Gary for letting me in on your site.
I just couldn’t leave without a final post. That guy just rubs people the wrong way.
All the best!
Wow, fan mail.
Now I feel like Justin Beiber