1. Vlad

    You have said in numerous occasions that you do not put much weight to a death cross, but you believe a golden cross is worth a blog post?

    1. Gary Post author

      Note that this is a weekly chart, not a daily. The crosses on the daily charts aren’t very accurate. More often than not by the time a cross has occurred it’s time for a reversal.

      Earlier in the year the perma bears were calling attention to the death cross of the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA as proof that the stock market was topping. I tried to warn them that that kind of cross doesn’t work consistently.

      The weekly charts tend to be a lot more consistent though as it takes a lot more momentum and a much longer time frame for a weekly cross to occur.

  2. lokum_

    From a purely observation point – inflation is hardly creeping any more but rather walking freely and evidently. Bombastic sports tranfers, buying 2nd and 3rd houses, I see more and more people asking questions what to do with cash or deposit money. On the other hand however employers find it hard to lure people into job openings. Social media set precedent that is more important to be famous than rich and those ppl prefer to spend the time on their own outside any tax related activites. This may set the course to fundamental disruption in any financial market (escpecially bonds). Main question remains what will be the safe heaven. Let’s hope it is $GOLD.

    Question: There are speculation that this still may be a bear rally. We had a higher low but final answer is if it passed last summer high ?

    1. TraderPete

      Safe heaven, I like that, lokum_. The Bible says that the streets of Heaven are paved with gold.😎👍

    2. vin

      During the time of price inflation gold certainly has been a safe haven for a couple of millenniums if not more. During deflationary periods gold also shines except that it is worth less in the given currency.

      Matter of fact is that there is no visible price inflation as yet. However, the feds seem to see inflation coming otherwise they wouldn’t be tinkering around with short term and overnight rates at this point.

      You are right that well-to-do are doing pretty well. But, the middle and the lower middle class hasn’t seen any trickle down yet. If they do then we will see price inflation.

      Also, Chinese labor has become significantly more expensive. On the other hand, Vietnamese, Bangladeshis are willing to work for less. Trump’s threat of taxing Chinese import and Indian mind will probably result in price inflation. So, to an ordinary person like myself the picture is not that clear yet. I rather wait and see.

        1. vin

          Gary I am surprised that you said that. I did not say there is no asset inflation. I said: “there is no visible PRICE inflation as yet…”

          Yesterday I purchased a sharp 40″ TV for $500. Thirty five years ago it was worth more than $10000 with no wifi and no HD. I buy excellent cotton shirts for less than $30. Twenty years ago a used to pay more for a similar product. And, it goes on and on …….

          Price inflation is different than asset inflation. Price inflation usually occurs when ordinary people have the money. Asset inflation usually occurs when the upper class is loaded with money.

          Price of gold has been in general related to price inflation and not asset inflation. Many a time asset inflation does lead to price inflation. But NOT always.

          1. Gary Post author

            Well the price of insurance has skyrocketed. So has heath care & education. A gallon of gas is up 50% over the last 9 years.

            What particular asset are you looking for as a sign there is inflation?

  3. Robert

    Gary, another cycle analyst that I follow is saying that the USD possibly made its DCL on Thursday. This would be bearish gold short term. I am not believing that. We should get at least 2 advancing daily cycles if 1120 was the YCL, correct? So I’m thinking maybe gold tops out soon 1195-1200 and then go for a DCL before shooting to 1220+

    1. Gary Post author

      It might be more important to look at the euro and yen. If those two currencies are completing yearly cycle lows then the first daily cycle should rally for 20 days or more. That would imply the dollar still has many days before the daily cycle bottoms.

    2. TraderPete

      I tend to agree with that analyst. I think the dollar index will get stronger short term, which will put pressure on gold for a week or so, maybe for a little pullback. But, I’m still in the camp that gold has made a bottom and will soon rocket higher; and silver will do the same.

      1. bill

        Yet what many tend to not see Is Gold was rising with the dollar as well as Miners prior to this recent pop … shorts as usual will be caught picking at the bone marrow of the already beaten down carcasses .

  4. Strike

    Gary- Does “huge move in mining stocks over the next 3-4 months” translate into 1400 – 1450 for $GOLD in your opinion?

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think it’s out of the question.

      The dollar is due for a 3 YCL this year. If there’s anything in the world traders consider a “one way” trade it’s the dollar. If it starts going the other way it’s going to catch everyone on the wrong side which would intensify the move down.

      Just based on sentiment levels the dollar should generate some kind of severe correction even if its still going higher at a later date.

      1. vin

        Gary, certainly dollar is grossly overpriced and eventually it is destined to decline. Almost everyone will agree with you. But, the question is how long can it stay overpriced considering that the dollar is still THE reserve currency and America undoubtedly is the MOST powerful nation in the world, irrespective of all the leftist propaganda.

  5. GMoney

    The 2016 Gold rally which began last January did wonders for many of the junior and mid-tier miners. These small miners may be a better strategy than NUGT this time around.

  6. zbigkid

    Well if my JNUG goes back over 32 by Sept, I promise I’ll buy one of your subscriptions. Personally, I’m highly skeptical of another rally like it had last year. the dollar keeps getting stronger, Trump is much stronger than Obama ever was, on all the things that count for our economy, and the Fed seems to be bound and determined to keep jackin’ rates at a faster pace than last year.

    1. vin

      that is an issue with 3X, if one loses big it becomes almost impossible to recover the loss. On the other hand it is a nice way to gamble and can make one a bundle if one can correctly predict the short term direction.

      1. GMoney

        I agree. I think it may be less risky to buy some good junior and mid-tier miners to capitalize on a rise in Gold. Many can be found for under $3.00

  7. Goild

    The candle pattern for the miners (NUGT) cannot be more perfectly bullish.
    Lots of people want or are jumping in. Volume backs it. Let greed do its job.

    Praise to all of you for your insights.

  8. Goild


    Would you please give us your thoughts on the USD?

    It seems USD is meeting the daily averages, and may form a double top to later fall?

  9. earthkitten

    Yep, it’s true Trump is stronger than Obama. One thing’s for
    certain. Obama left The Donald one big mess. 20 trillion
    in debt. Rising interest rates. Stocks wayyyy overvalued.
    Big reset coming soon. Gold Bull ready to run.

  10. ARends

    So lets get back to the economists ..haha

    The brilliant PHD economist Lawrence Henry “Larry” Summers has come out with a scathing criticism of Donald Trump’s economic policy:
    “The Navarro-Ross paper is well beyond voodoo economics,” Summers said of the September report on Trump’s growth plans. “The logic of it, the arguments made, are so far out of the mainstream of any kind of responsible economic thinking that they are the economic equivalent of creationism.”
    Summers dismissed the idea that any tax policy introduced to encourage U.S. companies to repatriate profits would boost investment and hiring.“The vast majority of the companies who have large overseas cash also have substantial amounts of domestic cash,” he said. “The reality is that cash that is brought home will be used to pay dividends, to buy back shares, to engage in mergers and acquisitions, to rearrange the financial chessboard, not to invest in large amounts of new capital. It is a chimera to suppose that there will be large increases in capital investment as a consequence of that repatriation.”

    Lawrence Henry’s amazing analytical abilities regarding economic issues are beyond reproach, so we should all heed his brilliant pronouncements. And since he believes Trump’s economic ideas “are so far out of the mainstream of any kind of responsible economic thinking that they are the economic equivalent of creationism”, let’s take a look at what a “responsible” Harvard PHD economist believes.
    Larry is one of the founding members of the Committee for the Advancement of Negative Interest Rates. Larry concocted, excuse me, developed this brilliant economic policy with his three brothers, Moe, Curly, and Schemp. And it has certainly been a roaring success worldwide, as can be evidenced by the booming growth in all of the countries which have unleashed, excuse me, enacted his crack economic team’s policy. Larry, Moe, Curly, and Schemp also have another foundation – The Society for the Complete Banning of Physical Cash, a.k.a., The War on Cash Society.

    Henry’s magnificent abilities as a hedge fund manager allowed him to have great input into Harvard’s endowment fund. Professor Summer’s acumen led to a mere $1.8 billion loss in the financial crisis, but who’s counting.

    And Lawrence loves the idea of big banks, and he trusts them to understand complex economic and market situations. In 1998 he testified before the Senate that derivatives regulation wasn’t necessary because Wall Street could be trusted to regulate itself – no prob. He also pushed to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act, because, well you know, we can trust Wall Street to regulate itself.

    So these are the views, theories, and actions of another “responsible” PHD economist who has never accomplished a darn thing in his life.

  11. terrywg

    as expected, any sign of strength in gold and the bulls come out in full force.

    gold has formed a temporary top at 1182. We are going to see a drop to 113x levels before there is any chance of an extended and powerful rally. I expect this to occur over the next 2 weeks or so. I just hope all the latecomers on this site don’t get flushed out of their positions.

    1. bill

      Yes because the world right now is calm and stable, no debt, no war, no rate hikes, everyone is refinancing to higher rates cause after all that’s the thing to do right? Of course all the above is a sac/ were on the prepuce of a major move in metals as well as miners. Anyone who thinks otherwise will be whining all the way up.

    2. Goild

      This world works on credibility. A statement without support is worth nearly nothing.
      I wonder if you have any argument to back up your 113X figure?

    3. Gary Post author

      I would point out that sentiment in the metals reached bearish levels not seen in almost 40 years. Now is the time to be a contrarian if there ever was one.

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