82 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – OIL

  1. Goild

    Something must be cooking. Gold is 0.22% up this evening and so tomorrow there could be a good jump.
    The fund managers must make a leaving too and so it could be we are paying them very substantial fees.

    1. bginvestor

      surf, I’ve been waiting for it to build support confluence at the long term down trend line.. we’ll see if it gets there.. it bounced off some recent support today..

      1. Surf City

        Sorry but I am not sure what longer term trend line you are referring to. Out of the top in early 2011 you can draw a line to the secondary top in later 2011 but this only gives you two touch points.

        To each his own but the down trend I have drawn out of the secondary top or retest has a great many touch points so this is the more important line for me to follow. When that line was broken, that was the time for me to load up my IRA with good dividend paying base metal miners like RIO, NSU and BHP. All these positions are deeply green in my IRA account now and have been paying nice tax free dividends to boot.

  2. Goild

    Yesterday and today NUGT, JNUG, and GLD had about the same weird behavior.
    Perhaps it is due to the drop of the British pound, which is for a second time at the lowest level.
    Shall it break support and dive in?

  3. ras

    Pms could be setting up for some kind of retrace, after 2X rise in jnug? Next 2 days could shed more light. Most pm stocks unable to follow gld to new high.

  4. TraderPete

    Harry Dent is at it again. I just got one of his newsletters today, and he is now predicting gold will go down to $700 and silver to $10 by the end of this year. He then has the temerity to predict that gold will get to $400 or lower and silver to $5 by as early as 2020. This guy is a fruitcake. He graduated from Harvard in economics. What are they teaching over there! Well, I tell you, they are teaching Keynesian economics, which is a bunch of bologna. They need to teach the Austrian school of economics. When will this guy learn. His predictions have always been way off base and so ridiculous. I wonder why anyone listens to him.

  5. Dday

    While gold decides wht direction it wants to go take a look at the uranium industry. Restictions which have been in place since 2011 are bout to be lifted. Uranium mining shares, which have been beaten down even more than the pms are responding…. Worth a look

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    USX’ Swing Low! while EURUSD and GBPUSD render lower lows in their current daily cycle declines!

    Gold shoul fall in its daily cycle decline.
    MIND JPY’S RELATIVE STRENGTH AGAINST EUR, GBP AND EVEN USD!
    I EXPECT ULTRA BULLISH, GARGANTUOUS BUYING OF THE YEN Y COMMERCIALS IN FRIDAY’S COT REPORT!

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s what oscillators do. They cycle from overbought to oversold. Right now oil is overbought, so it may not have a lot of upside potential especially since the last three years have seen oil move down into its YCL in the spring.

  7. Goild

    Right now USD is +0.4% and gold/miners are oblivious to USD,
    USD is rising, however, its candle length is about 60% of what it could reasonably do for the day.
    So I would guess USD may reach its max by 10:30 AM, and then gold will go further up.
    There appears strength in gold/miners in view of the 0.4% rise in USD.

  8. Dday

    Dollar recovering although jen staying strong, hence gold holding its own. Dollar at resistance here, so a push abouve 102.49 should see more strength. Most uranium shares have climbed about 30 percnt a day since new year, not sure how long that can last, maybe a missed oppertunity…….

  9. Goild

    Now NUGT is at $9.26. Rule of thumb, after the open it may fall twice the current drop which is 0.28. Twice is 0.56. So NUGT at $8.98 and then add the extremist factor and we may indeed see NUGT at $8.8

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    GOILD, i do not know how much USX is going.
    All I know is that it is very probable that:
    – USX and stocks to produce bull traps, hence higher highs,
    – gold to retrace to 1161 or so
    – EURUSD to go into 1.02 turf early next week where IT WILL BOTTOM
    – JPY has already topped
    – GBP to see great weakness.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      stocks, oil and commodities will not start their Yearly Cycle decline until XLE and crude oil will have confirmed their new daily cycles.

      tranports are close to confirming this.

      this means a top for SPX is due next month –> commercials are now loading their shorts in oil and SM; evidence will come on Friday’s COT 😉

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    Crude oil most likely to deliver the DCL, an undercut today on inventory report – regardless whther the DCL lies later today or if it came yesterday, long crude oil makes sense as a 3-day swing trade after the report release.

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    GOILD, you asked me about GBP’s weakness…maybe you saw that yesterday and today it’s been showing some relative strength against EUR.
    You should not be bother about it because GBP has been held back by the major support at 1.2081 –> after the break down occurs, GBP should dive like a rock!

  13. victor

    One time I posted that this should shoot up soon…, not necessary trade gold if you got this NXT.V or NTCXF,
    accumulated 72,000 units, should buy more instead of suckers metal…

  14. jonsyl

    well trump just took care of a rally in the laggard biotechs which was budding up until today. thought this would be last gasp for a equity top. So much for that. Still think we should top with option expiry however, how deep will depend on many times Trump opens his mouth.

    1. Gary Post author

      Once Trump starting beating on health care that killed any further interest I had in the sector. It’s impossible to predict when he might say something that triggers a 3-5% sell off.

  15. ras

    NUGT weekly: 4th week up, price above 10 week ma for 2 weeks. Macd curling up for a crossover. Stochastics moves above 20. Today’s retrace very shallow, only 1/2 of the depth of the previous candle. Encouraging.

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    Thank you, president trump!
    Just got back to my computer and saw I had gotten stopped out w/ minimum profit out of my short GBP.
    Now reentered short GBPUSD at 1.2220 — STOCKS AND USD MUST DELIVER HIGHER HIGHS, BULL TRAPS BEFORE FLAMING UP THE SCORCH.

    1. Dday

      While this forum has been puming the gold bugs full of euphoria, others have stated this is simply a bull trap and been advising to sell as gold aproaches 1200. Who is right, I dont know, but the miners performance makes the bull case questionable.

  17. Robert

    Gary you still there? Gold wants to attack 1200, not in the camp of Alex and these other bears. Today looks like the half cycle low in gold you have been talking about with strong reversal off the lows

    1. Surf City

      The obviously did during the long Bear but that all changed in 2016. Just plot a chart of the $HUI:Gold ratio or $XAU:Gold and you will clearly see that the miners have broken out of a downtrend of underperforming gold since 2003.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    Great:
    – transports have just confirmed the new daily cycle
    – utility stocks charted a swing low in anticipation of treasuries’ daily cycle decline,
    – crude grew post inventories report
    – USD reversed some of trump-generated volatility today
    – while stocks reversed all decline generated by trump.

    Next short term – till Tuesday:
    – new highs for USD and stocks
    – utilities up
    – gold and treasuries in decline
    – oil and XLE up to confirm their new DC.

  19. Don

    Alex. that ‘scorch’ thing is getting old and foolish sounding. Your insistence that there would be a stock market ‘scorch’ was dead wrong. Give it up.

  20. zkotpen

    Gold behaving exactly as planned, regardless of the news!

    Last Friday before 8 a.m., I was “short term bullish” on gold, until the forthcoming DCH completes. Friday’s move down was the beginning of wave 4 — looked so dramatic in the miners, but the short term bullish outlook has remained for me, while remaining on the sidelines — best place to spend wave 4!!

    I thought of taking a position in miners Wednesday, but the price action was just too confusing. Then wake up Thursday, and it’s so clear — fascinating running triangle in gold!

    Turns out yesterday’s low, 1177, was wave C — it gave me a lovely divergence. Then waves D & E ended very quickly (as they sometimes do), and wave 5 began…

    BTW, the divergence occurred on my short term chart, one degree lower than the 20 day SMA chart I use to monitor the daily cycle. Missed it by a fraction of a sliver of a whisker on the latter chart.

    Post-triangle, looks like gold has either just completed its DCH, or will do so shortly. It would be hilarious (mathematically speaking) if it topped out a penny below (above) the May 30 low 🙂

    1. barney

      hi zkotpen,

      if you get the chance can you repost your ideas / links to info on the triangles you talk about.

      Was interested in your ideas but never had a chance to follow them up.

  21. LiesandDamnLies

    Hi from Lies from down under.

    Your all asleep. Gold just hit USDS1205. Last 5 trading days USD 1163 to USD 1205. I own Aussie miners in the GDX. In the last 5 trading days the price has moved from AUD1603 to AUD1606.

    Please send your tissue’s to Lies in Canberra.

    1. Dday

      GDX up 3 pre market maybe starting to move. I think traders are skeptical concerning gold around the 1200 , many s´´expecting a fall at this levellevel hence very little miner movement. I think if gold can climb here and hold above the 1208 mark we should see the miners take off.

    1. Steve

      True, the DC should peak around then, but for those who aren’t short term traders, like me, I just let the daily cycles come and go. So I’ll hold my URA.

  22. brianbreeze

    Alexandru is by far the worst forecaster. Have you noticed how almost everything he predicts turns out to be wrong? This guy is hilarious. Only a fool would continue to post his predictions so everyone can see how wrong he is yet that does not stop him from posting. What an ego.

    1. LiesandDamnLies

      My view ( independent of Alex) was that the Dow & S&P would fall at some time into mid Feb with a chance of extending for a month or two.

      So I am expecting some sort of scorch as well (in some sectors).

      For the fellow who will be in charge by that time with the ferret skin on his head would you like me to send him some black swan feathers to poke in between so that he looks like a chief.

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