46 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY – $XAU

  1. Gary Post author

    Miners have recovered all of the drop triggered by the rate hike. The next hurdle is to recover everything lost after the election. That shouldn’t be too hard during an intermediate degree advance out of a yearly cycle low with sentiment more bearish than virtually any other time in the last 30 years.

  2. vin

    Ooops! There goes my jdst! May be luck will help me again. I will wait for a while before I cover this position. Like almost I other traders I will never learn.

  3. Strike

    I would love to see a spike down here, followed by a quick intraday recovery like it did in the last 3 YCLs.

  4. dboz

    DUST broke out of its down trend channel on the hourly. I say take caution here. Could go either way.

  5. Gary Post author

    I can’t speak for trying to day trade every little wiggle but after yesterday and based on what I’m seeing on the weekly charts it looks like the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle is now underway.

  6. Chips

    Hi traders, hey I’ve been trading options on GLD and SLV (as well as standard vehicles SPY, QQQ, DIA, etc) for several years. Been happy with results generally and now ready to jump into physical silver. Looks like it should hold 16 this year if we’ve bottomed. Any thoughts on silver appreciated…

  7. Gary Post author

    My spidey sense is saying if the miners can close above the 200 WMA this week then next week is going to be a really good week, maybe along the lines of something like this.

    1. Robert

      You are right Gary I thought gold would have sold off after FOMC but miners hold strong. Might have to just lock off the computer and stop looking on every wiggle

  8. bill

    Well as we come closer to the EOD ill say the $9 handle doesn’t look to positive unless we get a surge to the close but we held nicely on large volume. Tomorrow is another day. Now the doom and gloomer types can chime and and tell us all were going to $3 bucks rest assured lol…. Good trades to all.

  9. Robert

    Another thing Gary you say we should recover election losses easily but wouldn’t there be a bloodbath phase on this first daily cycle? Might be wise to take profit on leverage etc and try to trade the daily cycles like how you used to because I’m pretty sure bears won’t make it easy for us

    1. Gary Post author

      Bloodbath phases occur during the final drop of an intermediate cycle low, not during a daily cycle low. Those tend to be much milder and rebound very quickly once short term indicators reach oversold.

  10. TraderPete

    It looks like the gold and silver bears are going to have egg on their faces.

    Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha-Ha. Na-Na-Na-Na-Na.

  11. Goild


    Thanks for your comment.
    Wondering about different scenarios may help to manage the trend.

  12. Gary Post author

    We should now see all the trolls disappear again.

    Like I said, human nature never changes. Whenever an analyst is on the wrong side of the market for awhile, without fail the trolls show up to beat their chests and proclaim how smart they are and how wrong you are..

    Then when the market reverses and goes against them, and it always does eventually as markets never go anywhere in a straight line, then they have the luxury of slinking back under their bridge. Unfortunately those of us who actually stick our neck out and make real time calls don’t have that luxury so we will always be easy targets for these Monday morning quarterbacks.

    1. Goldlion78

      Disappear is right. lol! Love it.

      Over 75% of the posts were bearish gold just over a month ago and mostly due to just 3 posters with huge ego problems.

      1. Arthur

        > …and mostly due to just 3 posters with huge ego problems.

        Seems better now, i don’t know for how long …

    2. vin

      So true. Thank you Gary for your good work.

      jdst ain’t doing well at all. Hopefully I will get lucky again and be able to unload it at a price higher than 28.08. Or, I will have to sell it at a loss. And, that is no good.

      Surely all the excesses of the last 30 years will sooner or later show up in the market and gold will skyrocket. Hopefully I am lucky enough to be invested in gold before that happens. Until then I will follow what I think the market is telling me.

      Good luck to all traders on both sides as long as they are not cocky. Let arrogance be rewarded with unforgettable lessons. Amen!

    3. zbigkid

      Gary this time right now, is way bigger than you or these trolls, and what you are seeing in gold, this attitude you convey is way underestimating what is about to transpire. See my post below. I wouldn’t go bragging if I were you, bc you’re totally missing some key things in the big picture. Your video’s on bonds are amateurish at best, and are dancing around the fringes of what has been unfolding worldwide. You’d be smart to not even comment on anything other than gold, and you would be wiser still, if you were guiding people to be all in bullish on gold and silver both.

  13. Goild


    I hope we gold bugs are right in that we will see a bull in gold.
    There is nothing unreasonable about it; everything is expensive today, inflation is increasing, and more trouble in this world is also coming.
    If so the trick would be playing the retracements.

    Thanks for your excellent work in this site.

  14. Goild

    A reflection.
    If you see Gary’s site, that is this web site,, you pretty much see clarity, organization, uniformity, consistency and dedication, which are excellent traits in a trader.

  15. Strike

    1308 has been an important number numerous times. Am I correct in presuming that is our line in the sand on this uptrend? The 1374 high is more visible but not as persistent.

  16. zbigkid

    Yuan is absolutely getting crushed. Everyone in China is fleeing into Bitcoin. Gold is going to play catch up now, and will be on fire here for a long while.
    Next goes the bond market, and you will see rates explode even higher, and accelerate like you won’t believe.
    Chinese will be DESPERATE to halt this Yuan sell off, especially against the dollar, which means they will be frantically selling off their US treasuries, which in turn will cause every Tom, Dick, and Harry to also start unloading their T-Bills, and then all bonds are going to be hit hard worldwide.

    This is big folks. We are talking a MAJOR liquidity crisis, unlike anything we’ve ever seen.


    If the FED doesn’t completely reverse course, post haste, and re-launch massive QE4,5,6,7,8 to infinity, we could easily see interest rates explode to 9 or 10% in mere months. They have made a HUGE mistake, raising rates, because it has triggered all sorts of derivative contracts, which is precipitating this sell off in the Yuan, and other currencies.

    Its a race to the bottom that cannot be won. The dollar needs to collapse but it can’t be done, bc the Yuan and others are virtually ‘pegged’ to it. They cannot deflate these bubbles slowly. People really don’t get how these currencies work. Its too bad, bc they are far more important to understand than stocks or bonds, because those financial products are all denominated in these underlying currencies.

    Have fun all you peckerheads. I don’t know if Gold or silver can save any of you. But for sure, gold won’t be heading lower anytime soon, with these mess now unwinding at clearly a much more rapid pace.

    1. zbigkid

      What’s happening now folks, is numerous currencies are in an accelerating mode of collapse. The dollar appears strong, because its a relative thing, but everyone of the major trading partners with the US are getting crushed right now. The dollar is in equal free fall, but we aren’t seeing it directly just yet. Its due to all of the debt, and especially derivative contracts all tied to interest rates. As this stuff implodes, the visible effects are going to be things like major disruptions in the bond markets, as traders who use very sophisticated computer programs that are all unfortunately designed to work for trending currency markets, not VOLATILE markets, will go crazy and be ‘hunting’ in order to stabilize things. But that’s like you trying to find your jump partner in a free fall out of an airplane, where you both are falling, but may be encountering different speeds, and turbulence. You have no way to get your bearings. Well neither do these algo’s and programs, as everything is accelerating in a free fall. Dynamic systems like this, always fail. They have no reference point without an anchor, and that anchor could be something like gold, but too many nations left that peg long ago. I predict, that someone like China will be the first to figure out, that in order for them to stabilize, they will be forced to adopt a peg to gold. Call it a reset but in reality its going to be the only way to stop the freefall, and allow everything to appropriately be re-valued, including a whole lot of debt being destroyed. It won’t be pretty. The US will probably be forced to follow, which is interesting due to the timing, and election of Trump. He’s probably the only person besides Ron Paul, that would ever consider a re-peg to gold. And just go look who he hired as Treasury Secretary. (a ‘gold considerer’. Meaning a guy who’s reflected on the benefits of doing something this drastic.)

      1. vin

        If true then all paper gold is in deep (&*^%, including even mining share up to some extent. How many people on this forum actually own gold? In fact even a more interesting questioning is how many people have actually seen real gold? I have some gold freak friends who couldn’t tell the difference between copper and gold!

        1. bill

          I own REAL gold, since 2003, I trade their paper coupons for the real thing. One would be a fool here no to own some physical insurance.. I hope ill never have to actually use it, I don’t think Americans are ready for that sort of pain just yet.

          Only time will tell.

        2. GMoney

          I own physical Gold, Silver and Platinum – have them in a very good hiding spot at home. Additionally, within 2.5 seconds of reach I have a loaded Glock 19 and Smith & Wesson 357 Magnum just in case my precious metals need additional protection.

          1. vin

            GMoney, if it does become that bad your “loaded Glock 19 and Smith & Wesson 357 Magnum ..” will not fetch you a single banana! lol!

    2. vin

      zbigkid, didn’t Trump say that he will devalue dollar? Then why should Chinese worry? By selling treasuries Chinese will undo all they have done to boost their export by undervaluing their currencies.

      Again, whether gold/silver can save from what is coming is one only one question? More pertinent question is who owns the gold? I can assure you not many people on this forum do. If you do then you are one of the very few.

        1. vin

          Good for you bill. The present economic system is quite unstable. There a big chance that real gold/silver could become very useful if the things become uncontrollable. But, then it all depends what unfolds. Good luck!

        2. vin

          bill, irrespective of what happens, real silver is an excellent investment, that is, economically speaking. It is a win-win kind of investment to-day, very different than speculative paper plays. In addition both China and India are silver hungry. They will gobble up all the silver that is out there. if given an opportunity. But, they are astute in the sense that will get it at as low a price as they can get.

          Real silver a fantastic investment.

  17. Goild

    Having corrected for the interest-hike drop, it seems that the next item would be for Gold to correct for the election day drop.

  18. Goild


    1308 appears as the upper level for the channel to take place then.
    The brexit at first helped gold/miners to go up to 1374.
    Where do would you put the retracements and how deep?

  19. Steffmeister

    I just LOVE the smell of a rising JNUG in the morning 🙂 today is going to be interesting imo.

    Be right and sit tight !

  20. Gary Post author

    “Sorry, there is no excuse for buying full positions in 3x ETFs into overbought short term conditions.”

    Now this guy has to figure out how he got left behind so badly and whether or not he should now buy into even more extreme overbought conditions.

    This is how a lot of people got left in the dust during the baby bull rally last year.

  21. Goild

    Good morning.

    Yes, there was a big deal in being right at the bargain prices we just saw. Not only that but it also was a serious matter. My five lots effectively were acquired at $5.75. It would not be unreasonable for the miners to correct for the election day mess, or for gold in 2-5 months to nibble the $1374 high. Then I would have a 3 to 5 bagger. Yes, it was a big deal to buy at the low. Good trading to all.

    “We were told to not miss at trend”
    “You know, it is a bull market”

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