46 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Gary Post author

    I’m going to predict most of you won’t make a dime off of the rally. Very few have made anything as of today because most didn’t think there would be a rally. Most were, or still are looking for a retest of 1045. Some were even expecting gold to eventually head towards 250 (seriously, you can’t make this shit up).

    The day traders and chart monkeys will try to jump in and out and end up missing the entire move, or they’ll wait for a pullback before buying, and then when a pullback happens they won’t be able to pull the trigger.

    Here’s one I saw the other day as a valid strategy to make money. “Fade the analyst that is consistently wrong”. Like I said you can’t make this shit up.

    Folks no one is ever consistently wrong anymore than they are always right, and you’re an idiot if you think that’s a reasonable strategy. If you had half a brain you would realize the opposite is way more likely to produce exceptional results. You fade the analysts that’s been hot and you run with the one that’s been cold. The odds favor the hot analyst is about to have a cold streak and the cold analyst is about to get hot.

    But then again there is a reason why most people never make a dime in the market, and most never make a dime from a bull market. Human nature never changes.

    The SMT metals portfolio is currently back at +125%.

    1. Robert

      But Gary you said that there will be a half cycle low now so im pretty sure people will buy it up and make money. Im just trying to figure out if a sizeable dip is coming because I wanted to take profit today but did not, gold is now down

    2. ras

      Anyone who bought today as soon as price overtook 50 ma and holds through minor pull backs until the major cycle is done will do very well. May be a bit less than the folks who got in 7 days earlier. Not many folks have the intestinal fortitude to see price drop from 25 to 6 over 4 months. You are exceptional in that respect. That is totally unnecessary, considering the stress involved in holding a position below 50 ma for 4 months. It is OK to miss the initial part of the move and buy when a major technical event occurs as happened today and and float with the tide which has just started to trend. These are personal choices depending on individual circumstances. it Is not practical to shoe horn everybody into a particular mould. If your method/style helps you to make an insane amount of money, it is great and we are all happy for you. Many folks trade only what they see, not what they or some analyst thinks. With the technical event that happened today, there is absolutely no need to think. Just buy with abandon and hold, occasional dips notwithstanding.

      I have news for the folks who may be getting overly excited about 7 days rise. While declining, price sets up several resistance levels. For gdxj, the first resistance is close by around 40-41. In your parlance, chart monkeys are conditioned to sell at resistance. There could be some quick dip which will be aggressively bought by chart monkeys. This could happen a couple of times before the old high is reached.

      In this business, nothing and nobody can be trusted except price and major buy/sell signals. Of course, it is axiomatic that once price begins to trend, it is best to ride it until the emergence of a major buy/sell signal, despite minor hiccups. You missed the sell signal in August, 2016.
      Many analysts nailed the bottom 7 days ago. These are: Vermuellen, Moriarty, etc. and of course yourself. My point is there is absolutely no need trust anything else except price. That is the safest route. Let everyone follow what works best for him, because skill levels and circumstances are different for different individuals.

      1. Pedestrian

        From 25 to 6 in four months? You must be talking about NUGT. Who in God’s name held NUGT for the past four months (other than Robert of course) because that would have been portfolio suicide mounted cold bed of pain. Anyone could have seen that it had already put in a gigantic double top by mid August so that when it failed at 25 (which was the May peak mirror image) you should have been bailing out in a damned panic out without the parachute. But this is all in hind sight I suppose. I was short the whole way down. Is it any wonder I keep pining for more downside!!!

        1. Robert

          Ped I have recovered a little more than half of my losses. I think I will be able to recover all or even slight profit by end of this month. Gold should dip from here tho so could take couple weeks

          1. dboz

            I am concerned if we don’t rally this morning and hold support, selling could come right back. Gold needs to hold and consolidate and not drift back down. Dollar and USDJPY moving against us for now. Maybe the NFP will change all that?

            I have recovered all my losses from Sept and Oct buys (thought we were bottomed) and used some bottom plays that got me whole as of yesterday. I really don’t want to be at that level of loss again. At least 30% down.

            I am pretty much loaded up for the expected upside but until 1200 is behind us, down is still possible. A roll over here will signal possible new lows IMO. Day to day for me.

            I want to say this is a bull market but still not confirmed IMO. I am positioned for a bull but after adding shares the last few weeks, downside will just compound my losses significantly should we drop.

            I have to decide on a number for gold that will be my stop. I used none for the past year as I tend to feel the volatile nature of the PMs will whipsaw you. But if new lows come, they could be really low IMO.

            Fully invested and expecting upside at this time. Open minded that down is still possible. We could backtest the breakouts and failure is possible. I hope we move up and confirm the move.

    3. GMoney

      Well said, Gary. You’ve been right on the money regarding the miners over that past few weeks. As this next leg up blossoms I expect the trolls to vanish.

  2. earthkitten

    You’re so right Gary. Glad I pulled the
    buy trigger on the miners last Friday.
    Bearish sentiment on gold was unbelievable.
    Greedy when others are fearful I guess.

  3. goldbug

    May be we are going to have another repeat of last year. Companies results in the retail business indicate economic slowdown, interest rates are also backing down….

  4. macman1519

    Why the major uncertainty in the air?? Easy , Trump is showing his true colors. A borderline personality disorder, with strong narcissitic tendancies, with little, if any, basic understanding of world affairs. His true nature, megolomania, will result in in his removal as president. The US can not have a president that worries about himself more than the country. Hence, instability, gold going higher, markets tanking, until the Trump idiocy is removed. This will only get worse with Trump and his presidency. He is not even president and a firestorm of his own making has erupteded over Russian hacking, the repeal and replacement of Obama care and watch what happens with North Korea. Buying gold is the only answer for the increasingly chaotic times ahead due to Trump’s juvenile understanding of the world and its complexities.

    1. bill

      Yes cause the community organizer has done such a stand up job on global issues as well as domestic. Let’s see Omoron has rolled race relations back 40 years and has singlehandedly turned the majority of our allies against a us . Seems to me my Liberal dope friend what you describe above is the last eight years of the Obama administration. Have a wonderful evening snowflake.

    2. Vlad

      Have a good cry macman. It’s going to be a great 4 years knowing you liberals have to eat crow every single day. Enjoy.

  5. CooLoser

    Is it possible the action from mid-November until the first week of December in the chart above could be a coil and the initial break lower (over the last few weeks) would be followed by a stronger and more durable move higher (meaning currently)?

    1. Pedestrian

      Possible. But until it exceeds the November high its still officially just a dead cat bounce. What it has going for it this time is seasonality, recent excess bearishness and now a break above the 50 day. Actually, the XAU has exceeded its 100 day SMA as well which is pretty bullish and just proves I was on the wrong side of the charts this time. Que-Sera I suppose. What can you do except go back in for another swing at bat. Ideally the EMA should be above the SMA and turning up if this thing is going to have legs. We are not there quite yet for the 50 although it won’t take long if we had another few days like today.

      1. Pedestrian

        So pencil me in for “it’s still a dead cat bounce until further notice” and the jackals and gamblers can enjoy the gains made so far without me. Until then I will hang out with the chart Monkeys and other thinkers in this crowd.

      1. Easy Al

        Had December non-farm payroll number been scheduled to announced next week, I would say that the chance for a decline tomorrow in miners is high. HUI has advanced 12% in last three trading day. Tomorrow’s non-farm payroll number will determine the direction of the miners.

  6. Steffmeister

    Sold my JNUG yesterday at 8.65, mission completed +102% in 2weeks. I need the money for other later allocations and my Sith Lord Master is not Long (big surprise). I respect his view a great deal. Maybe a retest coming, I don’t know? My core position in miners is always intact.

  7. macman1519

    Billy BOY, For the last six years the republicans have obstructed any positive moves and they have tried to negate anything they could for political purposes at the expense of the American people. Unfortunately, too many gullible people like you see Trump the fool as the next Messiah. You embarrass your intellect to others by being a supporter of his. Soon even you, will see what a true moron he is. I may be a snowflake, you on the other hand, are a turd high up Trumps ass, enjoy the view!

    1. bill

      More Bs from the basement dweller, look JR this is a trading forum take your ideological idiocy back over to HuffPoo or whatever swamp you crawled out from I personally don’t care what you think , bottom line here is your pathetic propaganda party got served , as noted above enjoy the dead crow and try not to choke on the bones.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    USD & stock markets look like they want one more rally to new historical highs before rolling into YC decline.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      hence a lower low for EUR next week.
      JPY has already bottomed but is to retrace its gains.

      Key to all this short-term outlook are Transport stocks (which have yet to confirm their new daily cycle –> their dead cat bounce is to lift SPX) and EURUSD which is still mid-age in its current daily cycle (day 13), most likely also the last daily cycle in this YC.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      a bloodbath in EUR next week + a buying exhaustion/climax in stocks ??
      most likely…EURUSD at 1.059 now seems like a short-term shorting opportunity while SPX at sub-2270 a buying opportunity.
      let’s see

    3. Vlad

      Alex, yes I believe we are on the same page now. End of Jan will be the start of your “scorch”. You were just 6 weeks early. Hey it could be worse, you could be calling for 1000 JNUG.

  9. lokum_

    Will it there be a day when Gary does not make fuss about how many great calls he made and how much his portfolios are up

    1. Dday

      “The day traders and chart monkeys will try to jump in and out and end up missing the entire move, or they’ll wait for a pullback before buying, and then when a pullback happens they won’t be able to pull the trigger.

      Here’s one I saw the other day as a valid strategy to make money. “Fade the analyst that is consistently wrong”. Like I said you can’t make this shit up.”…..

      Not even waiting for gold to breach the 50dma before your bashing begins…… Have you been consistanly right since 2011? Perhaps a bit more modesty…..

    2. Gary Post author

      Others have made a big deal about how much we supposedly lost. I’m illustrating that is clearly not the case. The metal portfolio is back at its all time highs as of yesterday.

      1. Vlad

        Come on Gary. You shut down the MP and then reopened and lost 80% in your AP SLV and GDX calls. Yes, modesty is in order.

          1. Pedestrian

            To repeat, JNUG stopped at almost exactly the 618 retrace level of its move since Jan 3rd. This should be where we get a bounce if its going to happen. So far so good.

  10. lokum_

    I’ve be long enough around (even before 2011) on this forum and I’ve seen this and that.

    And I have said it before – Gary does not have fundamental idea why gold is going up or down. He does not believe gold is money nor he does not believe gold has any intrinsic value. He bets on other peoples’ intended action to put money in and out of precious metals which makes this market no different from a guess in a Las Vegas casino.

  11. Gary Post author

    Gold is going up for the same reason it always goes up. Central banks all over the world are printing money. Some of that money ends up landing in the metals market.

    1. lokum_

      I will take that because of ‘some’. My problem with gold is that it can not be distributed fully in today’s economic environment.

      P.S. I am long GDX, silver miners and rare earths.

  12. Goild

    I would not be surprised if we have a retracement in gold/miners, leading to a sideways channel.

    Vin, being consistent in making money is very difficult.
    Gary’s has good traits as a trader, so one can consider following his advice,
    Despite all comments here, Gary is making money and will continue making money.
    He is 100% paying attention to the market and you may consider him as a fund manager with the advantage that you have direct contact with him and know much of what he is doing.

    Be careful Vin, one can get into a streak of bad trades and once the account is lost it is OVER.

  13. Goild

    Now guys, while we may have a bit of a retracement, we will have gold/miners rising for at least the next 2-3 months. Look at the previous years, it is seasonal and the conditions are ripe for it to take place.
    This is kind of a fool proof trade. Though it easy to say it, but difficult to put your $$$ on the risk table.

  14. zkotpen

    Love that little poke in gold just below 1175 moments ago… gives me one o’ dem nice divergences I so <3 Just before, I was watching the most curious little support which held since the day's low

    This time, gold appears short term bullish 🙂

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    … and so it looks, probability of my short-term outlook (bullish USD & stock market, bearish for EUR and defensives) now increases considerably both based on price action and especially on the +0.4% increase in average wage.

  16. zkotpen

    No sooner do I get short term bullish then Mester comes along and manipulates the whole thing!

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Vlad, yes, we are on the same page now (except for the admiration of Putin and autocracy) with my personal small tweak that I think USD and stock market should exhaust at the end of next week or the other Monday/Tuesday the latest –> EURUSD would be on day 18 next Friday when it is in the time frame to bottom while USX on day 6 of its new daily cycle (DCL yesterday).

  18. zkotpen

    Well, naturally, my short term bullish outlook was until about 10 AM — when it’s convenient for me. Then the Mester manipulator comes along… I reckon she was doing that to me personally!!

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