S&P 500 YCL
The timing band for the next yearly cycle low in the S&P 500 is sometime between mid February and late March.
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Smart Money Tracker
S&P 500 YCL
The timing band for the next yearly cycle low in the S&P 500 is sometime between mid February and late March.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
Gary, would such a drop pull down miners back to the lows with it? Would it better to reposition into gold itself rather than GDX then? I am sceptical of such a drop I mean have these YCL in spy retraced that deep in the past and wats the correlation with miners + u just said that spy would only drop 2-4 days and then go back up
Miners are not going down if gold is going up.
Gary – have you ever come close to participating (in a big way) in any of the moves you described in your prior post on 3X ETFs other than broad stock market gains from funds parked in equities over decades (retirement accounts etc)? I think we all know the answer….no, of course you have not, and why?….because these instances are quite rare and require an incredible amount of luck and foolish money management for a huge payoff. The stars must be aligned and you’d have to be gambling an overweight position while ignoring a lot of basic trading rules. Yes, many fund managers held a couple of % of Dell and other tech stocks in the 90s did well. All of us with tech mutual funds did just as well. Virtually none of decided to park $20K in Dell in 1992 and ride it until 2000 but you make it sound like it was simple an obvious. Other than being a long term investor in a diversified portfolio, the best we can do is consistently snag good swing trades with decent sized positions which may last from weeks to months while practicing good money mgmt. using stops and upside sell targets. Sure, we can allocate a much smaller position to say JNUG and see where that goes for months or even a year let’s say under very rare circumstances provided you know where your bail points are. To allocate some monster position to JNUG and let it ride through all of the wild ups and downs because you somehow are guessing we are in the midst of an epic multi-year bull run is just irresponsible trading. Just because you can point to Dell in the 90s and say “look, it’s happened before” doesn’t constitute a sound trading strategy. In fact it’s just gambling…..because if you were truthful with yourself you’d admit it, you are a gambler…..period. You probably live in Vegas.
Clearly you have no idea what you are talking about. Just another troll with an agenda.
My recommendation is for subs to have no more than 20-50% of their account in metal trades. The metals are volatile.
All the accounts I manage are now Old Turkey in unleveraged ETF’s.
I made most of my fortune off the bull market in energy.
I made an insane amount of money during the baby bull. I took profits on those positions at the top in August and took most of the money out of my account and stuck it in the bank.
I’ve made enough money off the last two bulls to last me for two lifetimes, so to answer your question, yes I’ve made lots of money during bull markets.
I have made a few typos. So I repost it:
Thanks Epiphany. In principle what you say is true, It is very hard to make money in 3X investment unless the X shoots up without any major decline and/or long term zigzag movement. In that case 3X can perform better than 3 times the X. But, it would be rare if not impossible over a long period. One has to be extremely LUCKY to make such money.
3X are a great tool to make a short term killing if one can predict the short term direction correctly.
I have repeatedly mentioned this in the hope of that some of the “investors” (or is it gamblers) here will take a moment to understand this vehicle.
I have previously given the example that if one looks at the long term charts of 3X Bears and 3X Bulls, one will notice that most of the time neither of them beats the X, One should investigate and try to understand why!
How can this be possible if one is the inverse of the other? The answer is that it is inverse ONLY on daily basis and NOT over the long run, That is why all 3X prospectus use the word “daily”
All those who play 3X must understand what they are up to. It is probably the best tool to make money over the short run when one is right (lucky?).
Good luck everyone.
Gary – why on earth are ALL the accounts you manage in unleveraged ETFs when you continually and recently post statements like “Triple leveraged ETFs can be held through a bull market.”???? Why are you telling all of your subscribers that JNUG is going to 500 or 1000 yet you’re not even participating? That is insane dude. Am I the only one reading Gary write this??????
That one is easy.
Because the vast majority can’t weather the volatility. One could take maybe 10% of their account and place it in a long term hold on JNUG or NUGT if they want.
But you don’t want to? What happened to “dream big”? Why aren’t you doing this? Because you know it’s moronic.
Gary , are you talking about the bull market in energy in 2007 or 2008? If you took all of your money out after the baby bull run in August why did you recommend to buy Jnug @ $23 in September then for your subs ?
I appreciate the info and advice on this free blog, why do it then and take abuse or try to sell $20 subscription if you have money for two lifetimes ?
Your energy position in 2016 barely broke even.
Yeah, I am siting here stewing right now. I’m a subscriber who has not been on the payed site (nor this one very much) since Gary got everything so wrong around that time. To now be bragging you were out. You certainly were not telling your subscribers you were out.
One of the only times I was on here was when a couple of guys were calling Gary a scammer, I thought, no just wrong. I change my mind, now I’m going with scammer, I want out of the paid subscription, your not right in the head mate
I’m certainly not defending Gary because he’s not a victim here. But what sane person uses real money to follow a random person on the internet with no credentials, no provable track record and a well documented history of blowing up accounts if you took the time to read his own posted archives? Real traders don’t sell newsletters and investment services on the internet. Anyone that chooses to blindly follow self-proclaimed gurus deserves what they get.
Thanks Epiphany. In principle what you say is true, It is very hard to make money in 3X investment unless the X shoots up which any major decline or long term zigzag movement. In that case 3X can perform better than 3 times the X. But, it would be rare if not impossible over a long period. One has to be extremely LUCKY to make such money.
3X are a great tool to make a short term killing if one can predict the short term direction correctly.
I have repeatedly mentioned this here in the hope of that some of the “investors” (or is it gamblers) here will take a moment to understand this vehicle.
I previously given the example that if one looks at the long term charts of 3X Bears and 3X Bulls, one will notice that most of the time neither of them beats the X, One should investigate and try to understand why!
How can this be possible if one is the inverse of the other. The answer is that it is inverse ONLY on daily basis and NOT over the long run, That is why all 3X prospectus use the word “daily”
All those invest in 3X must understand what they are upto. It is probably the best tool to make money over the short run when one is right (lucky?).
Good luck everyone.
The big money in 3X is on the short side.
The rebalancing works in your favor on the short side.
That edge is hard to beat!!
Unless you have a 2 headed magic coin 🙂
3X is baby steps
20X in futures trading
400X with some of the shady forex brokers, get rich quick!!
I don’t know what 20X and 400X are. Forex futures for 1% down has been there fore some time. It may sound like 100X but it certainly is not,
In fact all margin accounts permit one to buy stable securities for 30% down but that is NOT 3X. Playing 3X is a very different game.
Information such as this costs money, get a subscription fuzzy…
gold is up 0.5%
GBP having a rough evening.
Well, it all depends on how you think.
If you think it is right, indeed it is right.
If you think it is wrong, indeed it is wrong.
Some people here have the common sense to realize that there might be a heck of an opportunity
in the 3X funds. We just eye witnessed JNUG and NUGT being 10 baggers.
I would not bet that they cannot repeat.
See, no one can predict the future. With trump we have a wild card and amazing things can happen.
If we get “lucky” we may have splendid gains. Currently the scenario has all the elements for getting lucky.
If it looks like it, it may very well be it.
Many of us benefit from this website. So praise to Gary for his hard work in it.
And thanks to all contributors for sharing their comments and expertise.
Be careful for what you ask for with regards to getting lucky.
Imagine the scenario where the metals take off. Some people may profit from such a scenario however the mass population will suffer greatly from the financial calamity. Many people including the elderly are just barely getting by. Something like the great depression – maybe worse.
WallStreetJesus,
I am not sure if 3X will be a right place to be if things do sour. It is not like holding gold in your your hand. It is not even like a holding shares of a good mining company. It is just paper worth less than the paper currency which is an undertaking of the government. 3X is just a promise by one of “them” based on derivatives!
If things do go sour derivatives will be the first to go provided they themselves are not the triggering mechanism in the first place.
3X is just a simple gamble not to be confused with investment in any way or form. But, it is a great tool to make a killing or losing quickly depending on which way the luck goes.
Hello Goild!
Please don’t confuse short term with long term. I have repeatedly said that one can make a killing with 3X if one can correctly predict the direction over the short term. But, it WILL not work over the long run. It is not an investment. It is a gamble. And, you are right that a gamble can pay off big if one is lucky.
WallStreet Jesus,
Indeed.
The mass population has been suffering already for way too long. The standards in the US, integrity, moral, education, and living, to mention a few, have had a downward trend of red candles. We need all US to work together to really make the US great again. Very difficult for it to happen.
And it is not only here in the US is a world wide problem.
Folks. This is not rocket science, to be betting on the trend in gold, and gold related, mining related ETF’s.
Less than 0.5% of world financial assets are invested in gold today. This extremely low level of gold investment shows that very few people understand gold and even fewer look at the performance of gold. Most investors simply ignore gold altogether, and worse don’t have a clue how gold has performed in the 2000’s. If they did know, they would realize that they have missed the best investment in the last 16 years by a very big margin. In Jan of 2000, gold was at $287. Jan 2017 its at, or thereabouts, $1197. A 317% gain.
Jan 2000, S&P500 Index was at 1469, and today its at 2274. A 55% gain. So both indexes have had their ups and downs, but the bigger point is most of today’s money by retail or professional investors is in stocks, and a lot of it in the broader markets like the S&P500.
Unlike the S&P500, gold is still at the very beginning of a long term secular bull run, that will simply dwarf any gains anyone has made investing in stocks since the early 1980’s. That is due mostly to the tailwind that stocks have had to a near 40 year secular bull run (lower interest rates) in bonds. Those two asset classes are at the end of their runs. (bonds and stocks). Stocks have had the benefit of MASSIVE debt and credit creation.
They have also had the benefit of a multiplicity of worldwide currency devaluations. You might ask, why gold hasn’t moved up a lot more. Well that’s bc there is still an infinitesimal amount of investment money that has chased gold, bc these other asset classes were doing ok for folks.
Gary is doing everyone a big favor here, by showing us a lot of important charts, his knowledge of cycles, and other traditional TA, that makes it pretty easy for those who have found his site, to take some measured steps with this gold bull run, that will indeed have its ups and downs, and downs that can last enough years, that would throw most people out of that particular asset class if they didn’t know any better. That is in fact, why so few people are actual stock pickers, bc they largely have no clue why a stock is going up or down. They are part of the herd, and just saying hey “i throw money in stocks bc that’s what my advisor, and all fund managers, tell me to do.” None of those fund managers lived threw times before the 80’s, when investing in stocks was not such a ‘sure thing’.
More than likely, gold will be well over $5000, before people start really putting money into gold in any meaningful way, so until then, we have a long long long way to go. Silver might have a better run up in the next 5 years, than even gold, but gold is going to be in a very nice, VERY long secular bull market that is going to last much longer than just 5 years.
The way you know this, is look at gold in at least 20 to 30 world currencies. Its trend is up in ALL of them since the year 2000. In fact, gold has outperformed the TOP 10 Currencies since 2000. 133% to 208%. Versus the world’s worst currencies it is up from 33,000% to 11,250,000%. Since 1913, when gold was pegged, its up 60 fold versus the US dollar. With all the QE since before 2000, starting under Greenspan, Gold has a LOT of catching up to do, and will do so at a far more rapid rate in the years dead ahead.
So I merely laugh at anyone who mocks people who hold gold, or who doubt gold’s anticipated performance for the next 20 years. Or even next 100 years. I wont be on the planet another 100 years so I don’t care what it does past 20 or 30 years. I’m 55. The world’s absolute debt levels, and levels of debt versus GDP, absolutely guarantee continued currency devaluations in ALL currencies for decades to come. Its really very simple math. What I’ve learned in my 55 years of life on this planet, is that people make things way more complicated than they need to be. I can fix or repair virtually anything, I solve all sorts of life and business problems every single day, and solve financial problems for my business clients, and 99.99% of those problem fixes were VERY SIMPLE. People look at me all the time and after I fix something, they stand there in amazement, and often say ‘wow, that was really simple.’ I’m like yep. It was. Remember that for the next time.
Investing is this simple too. Stick to gold, and follow Gary. It wont be that hard to make money in this. Unless of course, YOU decide to make it hard. (which a whole lot of people tend to do, for some strange reason, in nearly every aspect of their business and daily lives.)
I agree that Gary in general provides us excellent information and guidance. Gold probably will be higher in 2020 than it is today, and probably much higher. If that happens, in percentage terms mining companies will perform significantly better and junior mining companies even better than the major ones.
Vin,
Thanks for your comments.
Agreed, one critical point is the length of time one holds the 3X.
After Trump comments on making a deal with Russia to reduce nuclear arsenals. uranium may fall tomorrow. So on Wednesday one may wake up at 5:00 AM and short URA…
On 2015/2016 it took gold a lot of hesitation, about one month or more, to make its mind to go up.
This time the V-reversal appears decisive as if it would have made a mistake and is correcting it.
I don’t agree that you can’t hold 3x etf’s for a long period of time and have great returns. I got into TQQQ (3X) in January 2012 and held it until October 2015 for some huge gains. Then went to cash until June of 2016 and then reentered TQQQ. Since the reentry in June up another 35%. The trick is knowing when to get in and get out. The system I use doesn’t try to pick tops or bottoms but takes the big gains in the middle.
Kurt, 2012 Jan to 2015 Oct is pretty good period of time. Did you make 3 times QQQ during this period?
” The trick is knowing when to get in and get out” …… that is not really buy and hold as being discussed here. I believe that is the way to play 3X.
Another question for you Kurt, during this 2 years 10 months hold did NASDAQ have any fair size of correction, say 25% or more? And/or did it go zigzag (up and down) for a few months at anytime?
During periods when X goes up without any major correction and/or a long period of zigzag (sideways) behaviour, 3X can be VERY rewarding, no doubt about it. But, such periods are rare. And even harder to nail. If you did, you are a genius.
in fact it is 3 years and 10 months … that is a long hold alright.
vin,
“I have no problems with your mistakes. We all do mistakes. It is your arrogance that is not acceptable.”
Change not the subject. The whole point is, it is not personal as you’d like it to be.
And if it is, then why not offer some sort of solution?
Which gets back to a couple of days ago. All of that arrogance, sarcasm, whatever, these are things I don’t know how to operate and manage. You, of superior social skills than I, can see them more clearly, but you offer no help, just a judgment and condemnation, perhaps in attempt to elevate yourself in the eyes of your guru savior dude.
Allow me to rephrase: Why on Earth would I dedicate myself to science, instead of, say, mixing it up more in society, being a social operator in the business world or the political sphere or some other such space? Why was I in denial of my own place as a social scientist for 2 decades, if not because of the inherent struggle, the contradiction between “social” and “science”. Yet how else can we approach social phenomena in a meaningful way, if not via scientific method? That means eradicating all of that bias from our approach to social phenomena. It is at the core of the social sciences, and mine happens to be Economics. That is what I think about. I find Economics and Psychology as being the closest social sciences to that place, and I happen to have studied the former.
At the same time, I’m fully aware that no science at all, not even natural science, nothing that a human believes he or she knows, can ever be objective. So there’s a paradox: Seeking to approach objectivity, in a universe that’s entirely subjective. A universe of natural phenomena under our subjective gaze, and a universe of social phenomena, also under our subjective gaze. And even though we know objectivity is impossible, still, we strive for it. What has it given us? First spoken language, then written language, and then calculus. All in our attempt to understand, to think we can ever know, what is, inevitably, unknown and most of that is even unknowable. And yet, thanks to those three developments, we humans have lifted ourselves out of the food chain, though each of us still has his or her unique blend of challenges and advantages.
We are talking about markets here, that’s what I believe this space is about. Let’s say, I can offer a particular insight into markets. Time will tell how valuable it may or may not be. And as I said, there is this strange place between dreams, probabilities, and expectations.
I’m fine with the dreams part. Yesterday, I converted this particular dream of my work in my field into a goal, from the imaginary, into a plan of realization, of making it real. That’s a huge step.
Think about it — one of your dreams that you would love to achieve. Then, one day, you suddenly believe that you can achieve it, you can realize it, convert it from imaginary to real, and you give it a time line. And you really believe it is possible. That’s an amazing feeling. Then, it’s back to the grind, because now, you are working on a realistic goal, not just some imaginary dream. You’ve got some steps to take, a time line which you believe is reasonable in which to take them.
In the real world, the place where I’m trying to convert this particular imaginary dream into reality, I’m caught in this space between the probabilities, which I seek to increase toward a particular goal or target, coupled with the fact that regardless of how high or low the probability of a particular outcome, which suggests that one pattern may be more likely to play out than another, the end result is still entirely unpredictable, entirely, 100%, absolutely, most certainly — UNCERTAIN. Just as you can flip a coin and turn up heads five times in a row — how do you know what the outcome of the sixth coin flip will be? And underlying all of that, that paradox, one brings one’s own skewed set of challenges — denial, self-sabotage, a particular set of circumstances to overcome, on the way to an uncertain outcome that is possible.
So that’s my mental landscape, my particular set of strengths and weaknesses.
Arrogance, sarcasm, social posturing, all of that stuff — it’s baffling to me. One day, my efforts are a big ??? as they are all on the path of some nebulous, imaginary dream. The next day, I believe the path of those efforts can actually lead to a real world result. That’s an amazing feeling, which I express. Oh… does somebody perceive that expression as arrogance? Maybe — how should I know? That kind of determination is outside my own set of strengths.
The laboratory is a place where a scientist doesn’t worry about any of that. It’s a place where I feel I belong. But I still gotta live in the world outside the laboratory, and that world has people in it, and people operate in certain ways in groups, and that is downright confusing, puzzling, sometimes (often? as in, more often than I’m aware???) incomprehensible to me.
Which brings me back to where I was with you a couple of days ago:
If you’re just criticizing & judging me, and not offering real help to shore up my weaknesses, while simultaneously expecting others to help pick up the slack in your own weak areas, that makes you a HYPOCRITE.
And if you do so by flattering your guru savior dude, that makes you a SYCOPHANT.
And when I come to that conclusion, a funny creature pops up in my mind’s eye: A chihuahua with a lampshade collar, but one that’s not even allowed inside the guru savior dude’s house. Just hopes to have a bone thrown its way out there in the yard, as often as possible.
You had your “LOL” in one of your posts. Well, that image of the chihuahua with a lampshade collar getting thrown a bone while hanging out in the yard ’cause it’s not allowed in the house — that is my metaphoric little spontaneous poetry, which I use instead of merely copying and pasting the letters “LOL”. After all, I’m convinced that without comedy and music, we’d all go crazy. And there’s no comedy, no shared funniness, when somebody states something as stale as “LOL”. Did you come up with that yourself? Are you the creator of “LOL”???
I have no idea of whether my metaphor is arrogant — is that what you’re referring to? But I’ll tell you something: That metaphor came from the same creative sphere as the hypothesis that came to me about markets. I sat on my balcony and directed my awareness toward two things: Probability Assessment, and Risk Management. I then directed my psyche to approach these things with laser like focus. I then imagined the feeling, what it feels like to be a laser beam in complete and total focus. Five months later, an hypothesis comes to mind.
You are jealous because you haven’t found your access to that sphere. And here’s the irony: If you let down your jealousy, holding up a mirror when & how it’s convenient to you rather than when and how it can be of help to somebody else, when you knock off the flattery, well, that’s YOUR key to entry into that space. You’re jealous because you think you can’t get there, but I’m telling you, you can get there. In order to do so, you have to drop the jealousy, the flattery, and the hypocrisy.
Don’t think about it, just do it. You know that’s why you and I have come together. Don’t worry about what anybody thinks. Just let go of all that baggage, and let yourself fly, unleash your own creativity — you will be amazed by the results. And given your social skills, I’m certain you will be able to express your resulting joyful feelings in such a way as to not be called arrogant.
Just try it: Let go of the jealousy, the flattery, and the hypocrisy, for one day, and see where that takes you… If it’s a good feel, then try it a second day…
Best of luck with it!
O Man! Your arrogance is limitless indeed. Scientists don’t brag on such venues. I guess insecurity breeds arrogance, But, then that can be expected from someone like you.
For a change start posting your trades instead of Bsing. Do you really believe many of us time of such fairy tales?
zkotpen, get’s first place award for longest thread of the week!
In fact he gets many other highest awards. Read his post! I gave up after the first two paras. And, then I saw the last one. He is something else. Incredible ego!
The trend is your friend. We are now in a well defined channel uptrend in silver. We will of course have pullbacks along the way, but the trend is definitely up. I suspect it will last until the first week of June and perhaps longer, before we have a major pullback. The bull is back!!!
Vin
Returns were 52% for 2012, 139% 2013, 57% 2014, and 17% for 2015 for TQQQ although I got out of the trade in Oct 2015. The Nasdaq didn’t have any corrections during this time approaching 25%. There were sizeable corrections in Oct 2014 and Aug 2015 before exiting the trade. There was also some zig zag back and forth during 2012, 2014, and 2015. I do agree with you though that you can’t just buy and hold a 3X etf. Just wanted to point out that there are some time periods where you can hold these funds for several years.
Thank you. And, I agree but it is rare.
setting a sell-limit @ 1.1900 for my short GBPUSD position (down from 1.222).
Gary … always the PPT argument.
Stock market still has to go up to new high intrinsically – YOU WILL SEE THE CURRENT CORRECTION BEING “CORRECTED” UPWARDS for natural reasons, no PPT here.
Vin –
I wanted to reply weeks earlier but for some reason my password was shot.
Here’s the thing.
3x can be managed if you have a Bull market you are riding. You can ride it & if you exit at all you can leave a bit of your profits in OR you can just ride.
I made a lot of money ( 100K+) riding the baby bull last year with Gary’s advice. I dropped off in August.
But – I could have ridden it & I believe that if it is truly a bull – it’ll be there and you will catch back up.
So if you think this is a bull with gold – RIDE.
A lot of the 3x freak out comes from people looking at yahoo finance etc & not consdidering splits etc.
So research yourself and then make a call but don’t just emotionally go with people that say oh 3x is scary etc & so on – research thru the emo stuff.
MY SUGGESTION IS for longterm 3x is fine as long as its a BULL market.
To aid in this, here ya go:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2986586-what-the-numbers-say-about-long-term-investments-in-leveraged-etfs
Thank you, Americano. I am truly happy for you. Since you have done it, then of-course it can be done. I provided information based on arithmetic and I still stand by what I say:
“It is very hard to make money in 3X investment unless the X shoots up without any major decline and/or long term zigzag movement. In that case 3X can perform better than 3 times the X. But, it would be rare if not impossible over a long period. One has to be extremely LUCKY to make such money.”
I wish you good luck, my friend.
Also wanted to add –
Extreme fortunes will be made in Bitcoin this year and forward. I am NOT referring to gbtc which will evaporate when a new bitcoin based etf/etn comes on line –
I am referring to bitcoin that is bought via localcoins or anothe and stored on a PAPER wallet ( not on coinbase etc use your head).
Bitcoin is gonna break $1800 like a joke this year and long term $5K plus. It will be used as a settlement device.
I say it here because gold guys are typically totally flat footed on BTC. Only 21 million ever to be created – that’s unlike gold- or anything else.
So, get some bitcoin or when it passes $1500/2k etc – you’ll feel ( again) like you do when your wife yells at you for the millionth time. You’re on notice.
That said I am DEEP in JNUG as gold is for trading & holding in a bull market.
Or governments make it illegal and it goes to 0…
True.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
But I think the cat is too far out of the bag.
Thanks Americano. I have never owned bitcoin. Can you provide info. about where and how to buy bitcoin. Anyone else who invests in bitcoin?
Referring to my JNUG holdings – you can’t hold BTC in a 401k unless you go gbtc which is gonna be like trying to exit a nightclub during a raging fire when the Winklevoss or another ETF/Etn gets approved due to the premium it trades at because its the only show in town.
JPY has finally set its HCH today (i.e., USDJPY its HCL) on day 11 –> this should allow the following assets to confirm their new daily cycles before falling in their Yearly Cycle declines: USX, Russell2000, XLE.
stopped out w/ profit for short GBPUSD @ 1.208
Alexandeu you were the clown telling everyone SM would scorch for 2 months now and it corrected to the upside, same thing you are nowmtelling Gary. You are a clown and full of hot air.
Hey brianbreeze I think you need to give Alexandru a break. Given his forecasting abilities this guy is a master at money management. Far better than most people.
Had you taken the same trades you would have blown up your account long ago. I know I wouldn’t have survived through all those bad trades.
Alex deserves some credit and you can learn a lot from him. Alex in a former life was a Weather Man so don’t hold an occasional bad forecast against him. Alex is absolutely a master at what really counts in trading – money management. There is no denying that!!
Thank you, WSJ !